Tuesday Reads: Democratic Primaries in Kentucky and Oregon
Posted: May 17, 2016 Filed under: morning reads, open thread, Republican politics, U.S. Politics | Tags: Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, Henri Matisse, Hillary Clinton, Kentucky primary, Oregon primary 71 Comments
Good Afternoon!!
Today there are Democratic primaries in Kentucky and Oregon. Both actually look pretty good for Hillary. She has spent quite a bit of time in Kentucky and has spent much more than Bernie on advertising there. His donations seem to have dried up, and it’s questionable whether he’ll even be able to buy TV ads in California and New Jersey. Hillary will be the nominee either way, but it would be nice if she won one or both of today’s primaries.
The Lexington Herald Leader endorse Hillary on May 5: Clinton best choice for Ky. Democrats.
Hillary Clinton is the most-qualified person running for president of the United States and has demonstrated the deepest understanding of how to address the challenges facing Kentucky. Kentucky Democrats should vote for her in the May 17 primary.
The difference between Clinton and her leading opponent, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, was evident in their appearances this week in Kentucky. Sanders appeared in Lexington and Louisville, giving his standard stump speech to large and enthusiastic crowds. Clinton’s two-day tour of Appalachia included a session in Ashland where she talked with about 25 people for two hours about the region’s problems and promise. Two other candidates on the ballot have not been active in the race.
Clinton, who has served as secretary of state and in the Senate representing New York, in addition to her eight years as first lady during her husband Bill Clinton’s presidency, has an impressive resume and a thorough knowledge of both this country and its place in the world. She’s smart, extremely knowledgeable, thoughtful and — after decades of withstanding virtually every possible attack — unflappable. In a word, she’s presidential.
Read the rest at the link. Former Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear also endorsed Hillary yesterday. We won’t know the results until tonight–and I don’t think anyone in the media knows what will happen either. FiveThirtyEither hasn’t made projections for either state. There is an article by Harry Enten up on the site though: What To Expect In The Democratic Primaries In Kentucky And Oregon.
Kentucky doesn’t line up particularly well for either candidate demographically. My colleague Nate Silver’s demographic model, released in late April, projects that Clinton will win the state by about 2 percentage points. Why? In the last general election with an exit poll in every state (2008), whites made up about 75 percent of Barack Obama voters in Kentucky. That’s good — but not great — news for Sanders, who has done better with white voters than nonwhite voters. Blacks, meanwhile, made up about 25 percent. What could turn the tide for Clinton is that Kentucky is aclosed primary, which means only registered Democrats can vote. Sanders has done better among unaffiliated voters in open primaries. There’s been limited polling in Kentucky, but the last poll released there (in early March) had Clinton ahead by 5 percentage points.
Oregon is different. Nate’s demographic model gives Sanders an edge of about 15 percentage points. That’s because whites made up about 90 percent of Obama voters in the 2008 general election. Keep in mind too that Sanders won next door in the Washington caucuses in March by about 45 percentage points. Clinton is expected to do better in Oregon because, unlike Washington, Oregon is a primary and is closed to non-Democrats. I should note that the only two polls taken this year, including one taken this month, have shown Clinton ahead, so it’s possible that she’ll pull it out.
As Enten notes, Sanders will not gain any ground on Clinton even if he wins one or more of the two primaries.
I will share with you that Al Giordano is projecting that Hillary will win in both states. He’s pretty sure she’ll take Kentucky because of the African American vote; and he believes she could win Oregon because as many as 50% of the votes have already been made by mail. In early voting, Hillary is way ahead of Bernie. And remember, both Kentucky and Oregon have closed primaries, so Bernie’s treasured independents can’t vote.
From Politico: Can Hillary flip the script in Oregon and Kentucky?
Sanders victories are hardly inevitable in either state, and if Clinton were able to win both of them, she would finally put to rest the notion that her fellow Democrats are resistant to her candidacy, even if many seem resigned to having her as their nominee.
Polling in both races has been scant, and neither state allows independent voters to participate in the primary — a significant challenge for Sanders, who has struggled to win primaries that are limited to registered Democrats.
Still, Oregon’s demographics track closely with those of states where Sanders has prevailed. The Vermont senator has dominated Clinton in contests in nearby states with similar features: overwhelmingly white and very liberal with active grass-roots supporters.
“I have certainly been expecting — continue to expect — her to lose,” the chief strategist for one of the state’s top elected Democrats backing Clinton said. “I would have told you that I thought she was going to lose very badly. I still think she’ll lose badly.”
The strategist added that Oregon is “prime territory for Bernie demographically, all white. He’s been drawing big crowds of young people and all that.”
We’ll find out tonight.
In Bernie Sanders news, the Nevada Democratic party has filed an official complaint with the DNC about the behavior of his supporters at the Nevada Democratic Convention.
A few more links on the Nevada chaos:
The Nevada Dems on Medium: The Facts about the Nevada Democratic State Convention on Saturday.
John Ralston: The sour grapes revolution that rocked the Paris Hotel.
The New York Times: From Bernie Sanders Supporters, Death Threats Over Delegates.
As you have probably heard, the great Al Giordano has officially announced that if Bernie supporters disrupt the convention, thus making it more difficult for Hillary to defeat Donald Trump, Al will move back to Vermont and run against Bernie in the Senate primary in 2018.
Bernie Sanders is campaigning in Puerto Rico today, and he’s apparently in a foul mood.
This man does not have the temperament to be President–not by a long shot.
In other news, we still have a racist, xenophobic, misogynistic wanna-be dictator running on the Republican side. A few interesting reads on Trump:
David Cay Johnston at The National Memo: Trump Used His Aliases For Much More — And Worse — Than Gossip.
What we can show is that when Donald Trump made deceptive phone calls over decades — posing as a Trump Organization vice president named “John Miller” or “John Barron” — he was not always puffing up his reputation as a philandering ladies’ man. In his fictional identities, Trump could also be quite threatening, as revealed in the brief clip below from Trump: What’s The Deal? — a documentary film that he successfully suppressed for 25 years with threats of litigation.
The story erupted Thursday when The Washington Post put online a recording of Trump posing as “John Miller,” in a 1991 interview with People magazine reporter Sue Carswell. The fictitious “Miller” described himself as a newly hired Trump Organization publicist for the company boss….
Trump also used the name John Barron or Baron (he later named his son Baron).
“John Barron” didn’t just puff Trump’s sexual boasting in the press. “Barron” was also menacing, as revealed in the [a] film clip [from the documentary] about his abuse of Polish immigrant construction workers – and the attorney who tried to help them.
Trump: What’s The Deal recounts a wide variety of Trump lies, exaggerations, and manipulations, but the misconduct of greatest interest to voters may be his threatening litigation in a scheme to deny payment to about 200 illegal Polish immigrants tearing down the old Bonwit Teller building on Fifth Avenue (an act of architectural vandalism). Many of the men lacked hardhats or face masks, used sledge hammers rather than power tools, had to pull out live electric wires with their bare hands, in a building laced with asbestos — all in blatant violation of worker safety laws.
A lawyer trying to get the workers paid the meager $4 to $6 per hour that Trump owed them received a bullying telephone call from one “John Barron,” as recounted in the film:
Narrator: Chapter Six. [Voiceover various images of Trump Tower and Trump]
Threaten the lawyer that the Polish illegals hired after your cheap contractor defaults on paying them. Make sure that the threats are untraceable, in case the guy isn’t scared off.
Interview On Camera: John Szabo (lawyer for Polish workers):
“Mr. Barron had told me in the one telephone conversation that I had with him, that Donald Trump was upset because I was ruining his credit, reputation by filing the mechanics liens [legal action intended to enforce payment]. And Mr. Trump was thinking of filing a personal lawsuit against me for $100 million for defaming his, uh…reputation.”
Narrator: It turned out that Mr. Barron was Donald Trump’s favorite alias.
When this was revealed Trump said, “What of it? Ernest Hemingway used a pen name, didn’t he?”
You can now view the entire 80-minute documentary, which is a superb examination of Trump’s mendacity and manipulation of journalists and politicians. It’s available for $9.99 on iTunes.
Here’s a sobering piece from Simon Johnson at Reuters: Commentary: Win or lose, Trump could cause a recession.
Trump contends he can run Washington far better by treating the federal government like one of his companies. He has a very particular style as a real-estate developer, and his general approach to business could indeed be applied to fiscal and monetary policy. Any way that you look at what Trump is inclined to do, however, the result could lead to unprecedented disaster on a global scale.
Trump has already demonstrated a great ability to make the kinds of inconsistent comments that, — if coming from the mouth of a president — would scare investors, create a great deal of uncertainty, push up interest rates, lower employment, drive down stock market prices and cause the bottom to fall out of the value of other assets.
This kind of destabilization wouldn’t just have negative effects on investor and consumer confidence in the United States. It would spread rapidly around the world and drive up interest rates, bankrupt private-sector companies and plunge countries into a downward default-recession spiral. U.S. exports would naturally crater in this scenario because U.S. allies and trading partners would be in deep crisis and could not afford to buy American products.
The Trump ripple effect would really be a devastating global tidal wave of rising interest rates….
On debt, Trump believes the more the better. His companies issue a great deal of debt because, in the downside scenario, developers like Trump can find ways to pay less than the face value of what is owed. He recently said this approach is an opportunity the U.S. Treasury is losing out on.
The U.S. government, however, is not a speculative real-estate company. Alexander Hamilton realized, at the very start of the nation that having the federal government pay its debts in full, as well as assuming the states’ debts, was of fundamental importance. This was crucial not just for public finance but also for the ability of the private credit markets to operate in a reasonable fashion. And this is what Washington has done for more than 200 years.
“Risk-free debt” is how U.S. debt is described in the world of finance. Once you introduce default risk into those calculations, interest rates would spike for both the government and the private sector.
The paintings in this post are by Henri Matisse, of course.
I won’t be around tonight until late, but if we need another post, Dakinikat will post a live blog to discuss the primary results. What stories are you following today?
peej
Carissa
bostonboomer
dakinikat
ecocatwoman
grayslady
mablue2
NW Luna
peggysue22
quixote
skydancingguestblogger
Mona (aka Wonk the Vote)
Sky Dancing 
From the John Ralston article on the Nevada convention:
The National Memo:
Benghazi Committee’s Chief Counsel Says ‘Nothing Could Have Affected What Occurred’
I really hope she puts it away tonight. I will be watching, blogging and hoping big time!!!
Me too.
Also from Ralston Reports: A sample of the emails that the chairwoman has been receiving… basically very threatening like the type I used to get from those whacky anti abortion zealots.
https://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/sample-voicemails-left-state-democratic-chairwoman-roberta-lange
It’s so disappointing there is such a large element of unhinged supporters for Bernie. His campaign started with such promise but has devolved into the polar opposite of civil and policy-focused. Doesn’t say much for the leader of the “revolution” does it?
Seriously, though, could some of this be Republican rtfking?
I actually think some of these guys are like Paul supporters or libertarians. I think we’re seeing that because so many aren’t actually registered dems.
I also saw exit poll data from WV indicating 44% of Bernie voters would be voting for Trump in the general. That had to be conservatives gaming that contest.
But to Bernie fans that is a more “democratic” way to conduct party affairs. They have no idea what a political party even is.
Roger Stone On Potential Trump VP Newt Gingrich: “Pillsbury Doughboy,” Adulterer, Horndog
Stone Wondered If Gingrich Promised Herman Cain “White Tang” And If They Would “Double Team” Michele Bachmann
http://mediamatters.org/blog/2016/05/17/roger-stone-potential-trump-vp-newt-gingrich-pillsbury-doughboy-adulterer-horndog/210462
well, we always knew he was evil
Nice.
Oh please dear goddess save us from really old egomaniacal white-haired men.
There’ve been plenty of bad bald ones, too. But apparently the very pit of the whole cesspool of testerical nonsense comes with hair dyed orange.
Dear lord, even I didn’t think this was possible from Twisted Donald, John Miller or John Barron. There clearly are no limits for how far Trump will go to make a dollar. (((shaking head)))
WaPo:
Former Mafia-linked figure describes association with Trump
I bet a lot of this starts showing up now. Hope the Republicans are proud of themselves.
As many years as Trump has been in construction in New York City – how could he not have had dealings with the mafia? I’m only surprised we haven’t seen a wall of pictures of him with mafia pals.
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So is Bernie still telling his donors there’s a chance with the supers??
I tried to get my 85-yr old mother to understand what kind of person Trump is when I visited her in the old folks home Sunday. She is so steeped in Fox propaganda she refuses to believe Clinton is better. She’s convinced HRC is a liar because of some papers they found on her desk after she swore she didn’t know where they were (I think this relates to 90s Whitewater scandal).
{sigh} Anyway a lot of the little old ladies at the home are voting HRC because of Trump’s dubious character.
I hope Hillary can get her surrogates to bring all this stuff out in the open. They need to keep it front and center from now till November. I just don’t see Hillary doing character attacks but if anyone deserves to have their character dragged out in the open it’s The Donald.
What To Expect In The Democratic Primaries In Kentucky And Oregon
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-expect-in-the-democratic-primaries-in-kentucky-and-oregon/
That’s in my post. lol
Sorry. I couldn’t follow your links cause students.
No problem.
The disgusting behavior of the BernieBots in Nevada has left me shaking with rage. I’ve never hated any politician as much as I now despise Bernie Sanders. If he had any class at all, he would have called poor Roberta Lange (chairwoman for the Democratic Party of Nevada) and apologized. Her family has received death threats and other harassment from the Bern-Brains.
I know I’m a little late with this, but better late than never. Here’s my argument for refusing all calls to “unite” with the Bernie zombies. Let the battle cry ring forth once more…
PARTY UNITY MY ASS!
http://cannonfire.blogspot.com/2016/05/party-unity-my-ass.html
I just posted his damned below. He’s blaming the DNC.
dak, I can’t read the small print. Help! What does it say?
Here’s a larger print version, but it’s on Bernie’s page.
https://berniesanders.com/press-release/statement-nevada/
Thanks bb. My comment on statement below..
Mofo should have run as a fucking republican! Instead of coming out with a couple simple statements that condemn in violence at democratic conventions, he comes out with a manifesto on sour grapes. He wants to see the democratic convention turned into a hellhole.
Bernie Sanders is controlled by Roget Stone, Trump’s political hit man. I’ve given just a small portion of the evidence on my blog. Very soon, I’m going to deliver a very long and in-depth piece which will prove the point beyond rational debate.
Hysterical!!!! I especially love the pledge – sing it brother!!!!
And this part:
“Look at what you’ve done, BernieBots.
LOOK AT YOURSELVES. Have the simple goddamned human decency to engage in just one small moment of self-reflection and self doubt.”
I tried so hard to get this across at C&L but eventually had to leave there due to the infestation.
The Bern is at it again! Questioning her judgement!
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-judgment-223272
I have such a severe case of Bern Fatigue Syndrome.
Really, who in the fuck is he to speak. The reason he won’t release his taxes is because he allowed his wife to use her judgement, and fuck up the taxes. Just like she fucked up the University, and raised taxes, it didn’t fucking work, and they are closing their doors. It was his judgement to allow his supporters to disrupt the democratic conventions, and his judgement that causes him FAIL…………FAIL…….FAIL.
Here’s an excerpt from the above article.
”
“When it comes to Hillary Clinton floating her husband’s name as a top economic adviser, Bernie Sanders says that would speak to the former secretary of state’s judgment, not his own.
“Put Bill Clinton in charge of the economy? Well, uh, I mean that’s her judgment,” Sanders told reporters in San Juan, Puerto Rico, on Tuesday, in the Democratic candidate’s latest insinuation that his opponent does not have the proper judgment to lead the nation.”
As one of the comments to the article said- I’d rather have Bill in charge of my economy than Jane in charge of my college!
Yeah.
So, just what was it he didn’t like about the Bill Clinton years — the peace or the prosperity?
Sanders only shows he doesn’t have the judgment to be president.
https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/732645755014553601
Can’t read the small print. What does it say?
https://berniesanders.com/press-release/statement-nevada/
Thank you. This statement is unbelievable! And typical non-leader Bern style! The DNC must be regretting allowing him to run on Dem ticket. I’m afraid that the Bern will use all of this to try a Nader!!!!
Thanks to sore loser laws he cannot.
And the walls come-a-tumbling down
More Sanders staffers exit campaign
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/bernie-sanders-staffers-exit-223264
I am a business writer by profession and I always strive to keep things unemotional and professional (on the job at least). Bernie’s “statement” is full of anger. He truly is an angry little man. I can see why none of his colleagues like him. Would any of you want to work with someone like that?
He’s a right fighter, never can believe that he is ever wrong. Plus he’s so frustrated that he can’t make any real headway in the primary.
Hell no!
Even better, the Bern met with Harry Reid just before the campaign issued that statement. Wonder what Reid is thinking about the Bern’s leadership now????
https://mobile.twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/732644802232262656
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/280213-white-house-political-disputes-never-justify-violence
Jslat…………it’s called passing the buck.
😁 hi Fannie
Hey, my instincts tell me Hillary is going to be a winner tonight..
Did you read any of the comments to the tweet? Sanders people saying what does Bernie have to apologize for? and Hillary has to apologize for the guy assaulting someone in Atlanta? Not the same at all, no comparison.
The only other group I’ve seen that are this angry and deluded are anti choice zealots and rw nutjobs.
You are so right!!
Spot On.
I want to wring this effing ratfker’s red wattley ratfking neck!
Glad to read this link- The Nevada Dems on Medium: The Facts about the Nevada Democratic State Convention on Saturday.
It explains calmly what happened. Sanders supporters obviously can’t deal with the facts. And the Clinton campaign was more organized. So the Sanders people went apeshit and are now threatening Roberta Lange???? WTF?
It was in my post.
Thank You BB………this is a big issue for the democrats, and Bernie isn’t getting what he wants.
Yeah, I know, that’s what I’m referring to.
Oh, I’m sorry!
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/280213-white-house-political-disputes-never-justify-violence
The Reuters piece is interesting – surely at the very least the plutocrats will manage to sabotage Trump over the possibility they’d lose $$$ if he wins? The man is scary stupid about economics.
I really enjoyed Mark Cuban’s comments on T-Rump.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/donald-trump-mark-cuban-223237
He forgot to mention the escort service – hahahahahahaha
Thought I would never say this but how I do miss my Reddragon62 blog. There is so much I would love to say about and to these Sandernistas!
Post it here! We have a guest account.
Red Dragon, I’d love to read it!
Isn’t what happened with the delegates in the state convention the exact reverse of what happened with delegates in Clark County?
Didn’t HIllary go into the county convention with a clear win in the caucases, only to lose the county and the delegates there, because far more of Sanders’ delegates showed up?
Wasn’t this described over and over again by the media and Sanders’ supporters as his campaign having out-organized hers? Wasn’t it accepted as legitimate strategy by the Sanders campaign, with not a little gloating?
What was the response of Hillary’s campaign? Look at the mistakes, learn from them and do better next time. Not chair throwing, not screaming obscenities, threats and sexist hate speech at county chairs. Not threats or ultimatums to the state and national Democratic committees. Just – learn from mistakes, do better next time.
My god, which leader of these two campaigns would anyone want in the White House?
And what is so sad is that the Bern has No Chance of winning. It’s all an exercise in futility.
And tantrums.