Open Thread for the Time Being
Posted: May 4, 2016 Filed under: 2016 elections, open thread | Tags: Bernie "the fiinger" Sanders, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, John Kasich 33 Comments
Hi there!
Just thought I’d stick this up until JJ gets through working her Wednesday magic!
Some things to think on:
It’s mathematically impossible for Bernie to win with pledged delegates
Here’s how it works: After winning Indiana, Sanders has 1,399 pledged delegates and superdelegates to his name, according to the Associated Press’ count. That means he needs 984 more to reach the threshold of 2,383 needed to win.
The remaining contests, however — Guam, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, and the District of Columbia — only have 933 pledged delegates to offer.
So even if Sanders were to win 100 percent of the pledged delegates in each of those states, he wouldn’t make it past the mark.
Hence his efforts to win over superdelegates, the party leaders and elites who can choose their candidate regardless of how their states vote. That strategy is a long shot at best for Sanders: of the 719 super delegates, Clinton leads 520 to 39.
John Kasich suspended his campaign today.
The decision comes one day after Kasich finished a distant third in the Indiana primary. Top campaign aides had vowed that the governor would stay in the race, even after Ted Cruz, who formed an informal alliance with Kasich, suspended his campaign.
Kasich will end his run with just one primary victory, which came in his home state of Ohio. He remained in the race long after he was mathematically eliminated from clinching the GOP nomination, arguing that no candidate will earn a majoirity of the delegates ahead of the convention in Cleveland, Ohio, this summer.
Kasich’s role in the rest of the 2016 race is unclear. Though he has repeatedly and unequivocally said that he was not running to be vice president, Trump on Wednesday said he would consider the Ohio governor as his running mate.
“I think John’s doing the right thing,” Trump told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer in an excerpt of a larger interview, in discussing Kasich’s reported plan to drop out of the race later in the afternoon in Columbus, Ohio.
Here is an update on the election including Indiana results. Again, it’s mathematically impossible for Bernie to win with pledged delegates (e.g. voters).
Popular Vote:
Hillary’s Popular Vote: 12,437,785
Trump’s Popular Vote: 10,056,690
Sanders Popular Vote: 9,301,749
Hillary has 2,078,419 or 20% more votes than Trump and 3,167,700 or 34% more votes than Sanders
Delegate Math:
Trump has 1,047 delegates – he needs 1,237 to win Republican primary or 190 more delegates
Hillary has 2,202 delegates – she needs 2,382 to win or 180 more delegates to win Dem primary
Bernie has 1,400 delegates – he needs 2,382 to win or 982 more delegates**
Hillary has 802 or 57% more delegates than Bernie
**there are only 933 more delegates to be awarded in the Dem race, so Bernie cannot win
In the 2008 Dem Primary:
By the time Indiana voted (Calif had already voted on Super Tues) Hillary had 1,789 delegates and Obama had 2,072. Obama had 283 more delegates or 16% more than Hillary.
Obama had 16,928,142 popular vote and Hillary had 16,697,380 popular vote, 230,762 or 1% difference.
Obama went to the convention with 2,158 delegates, not the 2,382 needed to win. Hillary did not contest the convention, she nominated him and gave her delegates to him.
Hillary WILL HAVE 2,382 delegates BEFORE the convention; therefore Bernie cannot contest it. Yes, this includes super delegates (just like Obama’s did) – and even though they can change their mind, there is no compelling reason to do so when Bernie does not have the votes or delegates to contest it.
Hillary is outpolling Trump by Double Digits for the General. Although my basic argument for her beating his ass badly is demographics. There aren’t enough angry, christian white people out there in states with a large contribution to the electoral college to bring him to the White House. It’s the same demographics that are troubling His Loserness Bernie Sanders. America is a gumbo pot. The days of nothing but straight up and bland Yankee Stew are over.
Talk amongst yourselves!!!
Next few caucuses will occur in white outback states so be prepared for the BernieBot Swan Songs!!!
peej
Carissa
bostonboomer
ecocatwoman
grayslady
mablue2
JJ Lopez aka Minkoff Minx
NW Luna
peggysue22
skydancingguestblogger
Mona (aka Wonk the Vote)
Sky Dancing 
http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a44169/hillary-clinton-esquire-profile/
It Is Hillary Clinton’s Destiny to Defeat Donald Trump
THE MODERN, EXTREMIST RIGHT WAS PRETTY MUCH INVENTED IN OPPOSITION TO HER (AND HER HUSBAND). NOW IT’S UP TO HER (ALONE) TO STOP IT.
One of the best articles I have ever read about an amazing woman and presidential candidate whoever sought the office.
Bravo!!
I am a Bernie supporter but I do think it is time he gave it up. Democrats and liberals need to come together now and work on defeating Trump. We don’t have time for this battle anymore. It’s time for acceptance.
i have no problem with Bernie trying to stay in the conversation and influence the platform. I just think the time has come to stop attacking the party, the president, and the candidate. If he continues to to attack his own side, I’m not going to be very supportive of him doing anything ever again. He needs to be more of a team player which he actually has a reputation for not being. But he could listen to his better angels and become one.
As you know I was impressed with Sanders speech in congress, but now the attacks on Hillary Clinton are only going to serve as ammunition for Trump. The time is nearing (HERE) where they need to let our Louisiana bald snake loose on Dear Leader Bernard Sanders. Maybe a couple of good bites will let him see everyone has been BEYOND kind in not biting him earlier!
I agree. At this rate the Democrats are going to to be just as divided as the Republicans. We shouldn’t be attacking each other. Clearly Hillary appeals to some and Bernie to others. We should be listening to each other and finding the compromise. We can’t become what we are fighting against.
The entire Trump movement is temper tantrum throwing bunch of straight white men. So are these disruptive “progressive” dudes as far as a I can see. Just saw that a bunch of pastors are going to go on a 40 day hunger strike to protest gay marriage too. It’s rampant. It’s like they can’t get their way and their going to scream and yell and have a big ol’ hissy fit.
I agree. How is that I missed that article?
My God, it was great and so well written.
Thanks for sharing, Dak.
That’s a thought+provoking sentence. I do agree that somehow Hillary has got to find a way to both defeat and marginalize the Far Right, which is making it impossible to govern effectively. We will never have a bipartisan national consensus on economics or many other things, but the Far Right is simply destructive and utterly intransigent. They of course are goaded on by right-wing media on TV and the radio, which among other things, exploits them for profit.I don’t know how this can be stopped, but maybe if Hillary can win in a landslide, and capture many heretofore Red states, plus take back the Senate, this might possibly lead to some more moderate Republicans. But I don’t see any of those on the horizon; not as the billionaire oligarch polluters seem to own their every vote.
Excellent article.
Amazing article – I’m still reading it and just wanted to thank you for posting it!
Yqw
Excellent article. Rare to have such in-depth description and analysis — and understanding in journalism these days.
Hillary was on CNN earlier today and interviewed by Anderson Cooper. She said something that I thought was really important. She won 10 of the last 12 contests in 2008. I hadn’t remembered that, but it demonstrates that even though she was winning at the end, she couldn’t win the necessary delegates and those wins didn’t persuade Super Delegates to flip over to her. In fact some of them left her. We all remember that after the last contest she suspended her campaign. If I remember correctly she went to the convention with just about 110-115 less pledged delegates than Barack. Basically she made the decision after the last primary that she wasn’t interested in contesting the Convention and she was much closer to Barack than Bernie will be to Hillary. If only Bernie had that much class
Bernie’s an egotistical assclown surrounded by grifters who gotta grift including his wife. Classy isn’t even in the equation.
The Fix
Bernie Sanders is still winning states — and still losing ground
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/04/bernie-sanders-is-still-winning-states-and-still-losing-ground/?tid=sm_tw
When #NeverTrump Becomes #ImWithHer
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/05/03/when-nevertrump-becomes-imwithher.html?via=desktop&source=twitter
Buying of the President 2016
Ted Cruz and friends spent $10 per vote in Indiana. Trump won anyway.
https://www.publicintegrity.org/2016/05/04/19631/ted-cruz-and-friends-spent-10-vote-indiana-trump-won-anyway?utm_content=buffer7f1c4&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=publici-buffer
http://m.motherjones.com/politics/2016/05/hillary-clinton-wont-let-republicans-forget-never-trump
Hillary lets lose on Trump in an ad. Oh, WOW!
OMG that’s awesome.
Oh, this is good!
This tweet summarizes the entire election season so well:
Yeah. It does. Why Black votes don’t matter. Why a woman that’s winning hugely doesn’t matter. Why all kinds of people that aren’t rich white people don’t matter.
I’m not happy about the map that shows she will beat Trump in a landslide. It’s a setup, so that every tenth of a point that Trump gains, he will claim he’s gaining momentum. Like Bernie claims now he started so low in the polls and now he’s “gaining on her”. We’re going to listen to that from Trump people until November.
It’s “bye bye Kasich”. Thank God he is finally admitting the truth.
Take heed Bernie.
Can Kasich get off the stage without boring us to death? Who said this guy would be such a great candidate in the general election? The guy is tedious. Zzzzzzzzzzzz
He was this year’s Fred Thompson.
Thanks for doing this one Dak, my enthusiasm is in cold storage.
I could tell from the graphics in the media library. Anything for you!!!! xoxox0
Keith Richards Once Threatened to Knife-Fight Donald Trump
http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2016/03/donald-trump-keith-richards-fight
Has everyone seen this ad by a Senate candidate in Arkansas?
And so it begins . . .
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Good for Jack McCain and Renee Swift. I wish them happiness and a better freaking country.