Late Night Thang Redux

Posted: October 14, 2012 | Author: | Filed under: 2012 elections, open thread | 7 Comments

So, I was thinking–which is always dangerous–that if I was one of those people sitting in that town hall meeting on Tuesday Night and I got to ask a few questions what exactly would I ask?

Some of the things I thought about were sort’ve off beat, like Governor Romney, boxers, briefs or magic underwear? Others were more serious like Mr. President, about that kill list, you’re a constitutional lawyer, what’s constructional about that and executing citizens without due process? I mean, really, all you have to do is label some one an ‘enemy combatant’ and anything goes? Then, I’d follow up by pointing to Mitt Romney and ask him if he’d really trust that guy with that same duty.

So, this is an open thread basically, but I’d like to hear some of the questions–serious and otherwise–that you’d like to ask in a town hall setting where anything goes.

Here’s some background music to think by:

Oh, and this deserves a popcorn recipe:

Cinnamon Raisin Popcorn

INGREDIENTS

1 flat-bottomed brown bag
1/3 cup popcorn kernels
1/3 cup raisins
1 tsp. McCormick Saigon cinnamon

INSTRUCTIONS

1. Place popcorn kernels in any flat-bottomed brown bag you have. Fold over twice and tape to secure (tape is optional). Microwave on high for 2-3 minutes – this will vary depending on the microwave. Just make sure to stop when you hear only sporadic pops.

2. Open bag, transfer to a large bowl, and toss with cinnamon and raisins. Divide into four servings and enjoy.

Fuzzy Math and Beyond: Romney’s Tax Plan is Mission Impossible

Posted: October 13, 2012 | Author: | Filed under: 2012 elections, Economy | Tags: , , , | 27 Comments

There’s more evidence that Romney’s promise to provide 20% across-the-board tax cuts coupled with deficit reduction just doesn’t add-up.  There’s a new JCT study that shows this and there’s confirmation from Moody’s Economist Mark Zandi.  Mark Zandi is a former McCain advisor so there’s not much room to argue that he’s got a liberal bias. He appeared on CNN and said the math did not add up.

What do you have to do to get it to add up?

Closing all the loopholes and ending all of the deductions currently given to the wealthy does not make up for the losses of giving everyone in the country, particularly the wealthy, another tax break. The only way Romney’s plan will not add to the deficit is if middle class families pay over $2,000 more in taxes annually.

Zandi wasn’t even subtle when he said the Romney Tax Plan is basically a muddle and won’t work.

ZANDI: Yeah, I think the Tax Policy Center study is the definitive study. They’re non-partisan, they’re very good. They say given the numbers that they’ve been provided by the Romney campaign, no, it will not add up. Now, the Romney campaign could adjust their plan. They could say okay I’m not going to lower tax rates as much as I’m saying right now and they could make the arithmetic work. But under the current plan, with the current numbers, no it doesn’t. I’ll say one other thing, though. I think it is important that we do focus on the so-called tax expenditures in the tax code. Those are the deductions, and credits, and loopholes in the code. We need to reduce those, because if we do we’re going to make the tax system fairer, easier to understand and ultimately lead to stronger growth. So that’s the right place to focus. But, no, the arithmetic doesn’t work as it is right now.

Here’s a good summary of the the JCT Study from Bloomberg that is the basis of Zandi’s comments. The bottom line is that repealing deductions only makes up for 4% of the across-the-board tax decrease suggested by Romney.

The analysis by the Joint Committee on Taxation emphasizes the difficult choices facing lawmakers as they balance the benefits of rate cuts against the consequences of changing or ending deductions, such as for mortgage interest and charitable contributions. Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney proposes a 20 percent income-tax rate cut and says he would pay for it by limiting deductions, credits and exemptions.

While there are major differences between the assumptions underlying Romney’s plan and the JCT study, the findings emphasize shortcomings in Romney’s approach, said Daniel Shaviro, a tax law professor at New York University.

“There really is no serious dispute that the parameters of their plan can’t be met,” Shaviro said. “It’s like saying you’re going to drive from Boston to Los Angeles in 10 hours without speeding. There’s just no way to make the numbers add up.”

Ezra Klein published the JCT letter here and some analysis at his blog on WAPO.

The paper recounts an experiment conducted by the JCT. They supposed that all itemized deductions — things like the charitable deduction, the mortgage-interest break, etc. — were eliminated (though not non-deduction tax breaks — more on that later), along with the Alternative Minimum Tax. That mirrors Romney’s desire to cut tax breaks and eliminate the AMT. They also assumed that state and local bonds’ interest would start to be taxed, which, as AEI’s Matt Jensen has pointed out, makes it easier for the Romney plan to add up.

Finally, JCT assumed that capital gains and other investment income would be taxed at the same rate as regular income, instead of the preferential rates they currently enjoy. That’s a big difference from Romney’s plan, which proposes eliminating capital gains and other investment taxes for people making less than $200,000, but mirrors the Bowles-Simpson, Domenici-Rivlin and Wyden-Coats tax reform plans, all of which remove the capital preference.

Then JCT asked how low you could cut tax rates under this scenario without increasing the deficit, on net. The answer: not much at all. To keep revenue the same as it’ll be next year, when the Bush tax cuts expire, you could only cut rates by 4 percent. Instead of brackets of 15 percent, 28 percent, 31 percent, 36 percent and 39.6 percent, you’d have brackets of 14.4 percent, 26.88 percent, 29.76 percent, 34.56 percent and 38.02 percent. That’s not exactly revolutionary, and it’s a far cry from the 20 percent cut that Romney wants.

That said, the change is very progressive. People making $10-20,000 a year get their taxes cut by 2.4 percent of income, a 61.4 percent cut relative to their previous burden. By contrast, millionaires see taxes go up 7.1 percent, or 5.5 percent of income …

Here’s a good paragraph from David Dayen at FDL who wrote on the study earlier today. It puts both the debt and tax cuts into perspective.

For those that care about the deficit, it’s worth noting that the last major cut to taxes, the Bush-era tax cuts, accounts for the majority of the deficit problem currently, particularly in the out years. The tax cuts and the two wars will account for $9 trillion in deficits between their inauguration and 2019, under current policy. So throwing another $5 trillion tax cut that cannot be plausibly offset on the pile makes even less sense, especially in the constrained, non-MMT environment of Washington.

AEI and Republican always seem to plug a canard that’s been so debunked that it’s laughable.  They love to say that tax cuts to the rich stimulate the economy.  There have been a number of academic studies that show this is not the case.  Some of the most recent ones are even more definitive.  Still, the meme exists.

A new study, however, indicates that tax cuts for the wealthiest earners fail to generate economic growth at the same pace as tax cuts aimed at low- and middle-income earners.

The study, conducted by Owen M. Zidar, a former staff economist on President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers and a graduate student at California-Berkeley, examined economic growth in the states with the most high-income earners. Zidar reasoned that “states with a large share of high income taxpayers should grow faster following a tax cut for high income earners” if the tax cuts had the economic effect conservatives claim.

What he found, though, is that the effect of tax cuts for the rich was “insignificant statistically,” as Reuters’ David Cay Johnston reported:

“Almost all of the stimulative effect of tax cuts,” Zidar found, “results from tax cuts for the bottom 90%. A one percent of GDP tax cut for the bottom 90% results in 2.7 percentage points of GDP growth over a two-year period. The corresponding estimate for the top 10% is 0.13 percentage points and is insignificant statistically.”

Zidar’s study provides more empirical backing to what the U.S. has experienced over the last 30 years. Supply-side tax cutting policies have not led to the growth their Republican proponents promised. The Bush tax cuts, for instance, were followed by the weakest decade for economic expansion on record.

It’s really disheartening for any economist  to see these canards continually trotted out to what seems like a really economic illiterate electorate.  Why any one continues to buy anything Romney and Ryan say is beyond me.  My guess is we’ll hear more about this.  The next presidential debate will be on the town hall one and hopefully this Romney Tax Plan in Wonderland will get some airing.  It really is a ridiculous set of lies.  The most disturbing thing is that the loopholes that would be eliminated are ones that benefit middle and upper middle incomes.  A lot of the rich get their incomes from sources that are taxed differently anyway.  That’s why he’s peddling the elimination of capital gains taxes.  He still gets to shelter his income no matter what happens to normal tax deductions.

Late Night Thang

Posted: October 12, 2012 | Author: | Filed under: Festivities, open thread | Tags: | 16 Comments

So, it’s Oktoberfest month.

How about a recipe for Pretzels?

 If you are using active dry yeast, mix it into the warm milk along with the malt powder (or brown sugar) and give it 5 to 10 minutes to activate before incorporating it into the dry ingredients.

Pretzels

Makes 6 large pretzels
1 teaspoon instant yeast
1 tablespoon malt powder or brown sugar
2-3 cups all-purpose unbleached or bread flour
1 teaspoon salt
1 cup warm milk (approximately 110 degrees, which is 1 minute in my microwave)

Combine all of the ingredients in a bowl and mix together until it forms a ball. I start with 2 cups of the flour and mix it together until it forms something like a thick batter, then add more flour a handful at a time until it’ll form a nice ball that I can knead by hand.

Either use an electric mixer to mix the dough for 5 minutes or remove it from the bowl and knead it by hand for 5 to 10 minutes until the dough begins to get smooth and satiny.

If you are going to ferment the dough (more information on whether this set is necessary below), return the ball of dough to a clean, greased bowl, cover with plastic wrap, and set it aside to rise until it has doubled in size, approximately an hour.

If you fermented it, degas the dough gently before moving on to the next step.

Before shaping, start preheating the oven to 425 degrees.

Cut the dough into 6 pieces. Roll each one into a short log, cover with a towel, and let the dough relax for 5 to 10 minutes. After it has relaxed you should be able to roll it out and stretch again fairly easily.

To boil them: If you want to boil them, bring a pot of water to a boil. Dunk each of the pretzels into the boiling water for 5 seconds, then place them onto a baking sheet and sprinkle with coarse salt (I use the kosher stuff that is easy to find at the grocery store) or other toppings.

I also like all this time of year because around here it’s Voodoo Fest and the Blues Fest and all kinds of good music is around!

Here’s a list of the top 10 fall brews.  My own personal favorite these days is Blue Moon’s Harvest Pumpkin Ale.  This one is straight from Germany.

Ayinger Oktober Fest-Märzen
Brauerei Aying
Aying, Germany
Märzen / Oktoberfest
5.8 per cent ABV

The Ayinger Brewery, founded in 1878 and located in the Bavarian village of Aying, is no stranger to brewing medals. It regularly brings home gold medals from the World Beer Championships and its Oktober Fest-Märzen is one of the most medaled and highly respected Märzens in the world. It pours with a golden color tinted with amber and a nose of floral hops balanced with slightly sweet malt. Flavors of caramel and nutty malt form the backbone and it’s balanced with just enough hops to prevent it from coming off as too sweet. Its medium body and moderate alcohol (5.6 per cent ABV) is not overpowering, making this an easy drinking beer that will pair nicely with roasted chicken, fish, sausage or sauerkraut.

I personally love pumpkins.

I think they’re wonderful!

I also like watching goofy old scary movies!

My favorite of the old but good horror movies is a 1932 classic called “The Old Dark House.”

What’s your favorite scary movie and fall treat?

Friday Morning Reads: Let’s hear it for the girls!

Posted: October 12, 2012 | Author: | Filed under: misogyny, morning reads | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , | 56 Comments

Good Morning!

Well, after an intense VEEP debate last night, I’d like to focus on topics related to something I care about.   So, I’ll let Kirk over there phone in the political news,

I deeply care about the future of the world’s girls.This week, we celebrated the first day specifically for girls. Here are some updates on some of the challenges that girls around the globe face. There are many.

One of the most horrifying futures for girls in many countries is becoming a child bride.  I’ve written about this before since seeing a Maria Hinojosa special on PBS called “Child Brides, Stolen Lives”. This was in 2007. I’m proud that our SOS Hillary Clinton has made ending  this a priority for the US.

Part of Clinton’s initiative includes tackling these core causes through education, underscoring a study that reveals that girls with a secondary level education are six times less likely to marry as children.

Some of the steps to empower girls through education include a $15 million initiative through nonprofit USAID and the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) tackling cost and safety issues that prevent girls reaching post-primary schooling.

Clinton’s plan also includes tracking every country’s legal minimum age of marriage, providing more training for consular staff to respond to child marriage cases and specifically tackling child marriage in Bangladesh. Here, a pilot program will promote sensitivity through the government, media and other outlets.

Within the private portion of Clinton’s plan, the Ford Foundation also launched a five-year $25 million commitment to end child marriage by pushing local governments to fight child marriage, fund new research on interventions and work to expand girls’ rights.

Here’s some updated information from CARE.

“Child marriage is a violation of human rights whether it happens to a girl or a boy, but it represents perhaps the most prevalent form of sexual abuse and exploitation of girls,” says UNICEF – Child Protection Information Sheet. “The harmful consequences include separation from family and friends, lack of freedom to interact with peers and participate in community activities, and decreased opportunities for education. Child marriage can also result in bonded labour or enslavement, commercial sexual exploitation and violence against the victims,” continues UNICEF.

Advocates say early marriage can be devastating to young girls who do not have the ability to stop inequalities in marriage. Lack of safety and personal power to stop forced sexual activity in marriage can also place young girls in dangers to exposures with HIV/AIDS. Girls who marry early are also more likely to skip school or discontinue their education all together.

“By forcing a child into premature adulthood, early marriage thwarts her chances at education, endangers her health and cuts short her personal growth and development,” says CARE’s “From Aid to Impact” action report. “Maternal health risks are particularly troubling as risk of death in pregnancy and delivery for girls under the age of 15 is five times higher than for women in their 20s,” added CARE.

But can we change conditions for girls who face early marriage? Advocates say YES.

“That’s what we need to commit to: to end child marriage by 2030,” said Mary Robinson, former United Nations Commissioner for Human Rights and one of the global human rights leaders known as The Elders, in a recent October 4, 2012 Google+ Hangout (sponsored by The Elders).

I learned about The Elders from a wonderful TV program on Jane Goodall called “Jane’s Journey” on Animal Planet. Jane has started working with children in a program all over the world called “Shoots and Roots” that is absolutely amazing. It works closely with The Elders.

Goodall’s life and her efforts to save the communities of chimps she first encountered decades ago are front and center in the TV premiere of “Jane’s Journey” at 8 p.m. Tuesday on Animal Planet

She’s behind some of the latest discoveries, like the raising of twin chimps to adulthood and the ability to determine a wild paternity.

Goodall said about 20 years ago that she had figured out the best way to save the chimps would be to help people who live on the land.

“When we talked to the village elders, they told us they wanted better health facilities and education for their children.”

In return, villagers — now living better lives — have turned their attention to preserving at least some of the jungles where the apes live.

But the effort has taken years for Goodall and an army of like-minded individuals to build infrastructure and promote sustainable livelihoods — like growing and exporting coffee.

Jane Goodall’s Roots and Shoots program is one of those programs that simply amazes me.  Again, I learned about it last week when the program aired.

Roots creep underground everywhere and make a firm foundation. Shoots seem very weak, but to reach the light, they can break open brick walls. Imagine that the brick walls are all the problems we have inflicted on our planet. Hundreds of thousands of roots & shoots, hundreds of thousands of young people around the world, can break through these walls. We CAN change the world.
– Dr. Jane

You should watch the Goodall program, the Hinojosa program, and the PBS program “Half the Sky”--promoted by Mona last weekend on Saturday–if you care about girls and boys all over the world.  We’ve promoted the Somaly Mam program for some time on this blog. Her story and the other women’s stories are so inspiring as is the work they do.

Somaly Mam was born in an ethnic minority community in Cambodia’s Mondulkiri province, and grew up as an orphan living in extreme poverty. A man posing as her grandfather sold Somaly as a young girl into sexual slavery.

Forced to work in a brothel, Somaly was repeatedly tortured and raped. One night, she was made to watch as her best friend was murdered. Fearing she would also be killed, Somaly escaped her captors and set about building a new life for herself. She vowed never to forget those left behind and has since dedicated her life to saving victims and empowering survivors.

In 1996, Somaly established a Cambodian non-governmental organization called AFESIP (Agir Pour les Femmes en Situation Précaire), and in 2007 launched theSomaly Mam Foundation.

She quickly gained international attention for her anti-trafficking efforts, and is the recipient of the Prince of Asturias Award for International Cooperation and Glamour Magazine’s 2006 Woman of the Year Award. She was featured as a CNN Hero and named as one of Time Magazine’s 100 Most Influential People of 2009.

Somaly was also featured in the film Not My Life, an unflinching documentary depicting the horrors of modern slavery on a global scale, which released in 2011.

So, instead of watching something that is meaningless this weekend, please, take time to learn about the life of girls around the world. There are some really inspiring programs that you can learn about in the links that I’ve provided for you this morning.

I wanted to update you on Malala–a young girl who just wants to go to school in Pakistan–who JJ covered in her news post earlier this week.  She has been shifted to AFIC Rawalpindi in serious condition.

The doctors had conducted surgery on Malala’s head and neck to remove a bullet on Wednesday. They advised complete rest for her in the hospital. Col Dr Junaid, who handled the 14-year-old Malala from the first day after she was shifted to the CMH from Swat, told this correspondent outside the ICU where she was fighting for life, that it was now the unanimous decision of the doctors to transfer her to AFIC Rawalpindi for better care.

“A joint team of doctors from the Pakistan Army and civilians held a meeting and found that the surgery done on Malala in Peshawar was outstanding but felt that she now needed better care. The team said the AFIC was a better place for post-operative care for patients suffering from trauma and head injuries,” Col Dr Junaid said.

He said the two British doctors also expressed satisfaction on Malala’s surgery and congratulated the Pakistani neurosurgeons for doing such an excellent job with limited resources.He said Malala would remain at the paediatric unit of AFIC where foreign doctors would assist Pakistani doctors in her treatment.

Before Malala’s shifting, extraordinary security measures were made in and outside the CMH and the Pakistan Army commandos were seen escorting a brief motorcade of two ambulances and military vehicles.

Malalal’s father Ziauddin Yousafzai, her mother and close relatives and Dr Junaid accompanied her in the military helicopter.Though worried for his patient, Col Dr Junaid said he was optimistic she would recover soon. “It’s a critical injury. We are keeping her on a ventilator,” he said. Asked as to when she would regain consciousness, he said it would require at least 15 days.

The military sources, however, said the decision to shift her to AFIC was taken on the advice of two British doctors called for Malala’s treatment. One of them was identified as Dr Fiona and the other her Pakistan-born husband. The couple visited Malala at the CMH and advised her shifting to the AFIC.

“Fiona has experience in post-operative care in neuro-surgery and head injuries. She and her husband offered their services to Malala and agreed to attend to her if she is taken to the AFIC,” the officials said.

Yesterday in Peshwar, the ruling Awami National Party (ANP) staged a protest rally to condemn the recent attack on Malala Yousafzai and the two other school students in Swat.  People in Pakistan have been outraged at the attack on the young teen.

Speaking on the occasion, Bashir Bilour termed Malala Yousafzai an icon of peace, education and prosperity. He said the bold and courageous girl had even spoken against the militants when they wielded power in Swat. “The militants have shown their cowardice by targeting an innocent teenaged girl,” he said and added that neither the Muslims nor the Pakhtuns could even think of attacking women and children. “The militants cannot stop us from our struggle to establish peace on this soil,” he vowed.

The participants prayed for the early recovery of Malala Yousafzai and her injured friends. The ANP central deputy general secretary Tajuddin Khan, Peshawar district president Arbab Najeeb and other leaders attended the rally.

Meanwhile, students of the Bacha Khan Model High School in Nauthia staged a protest rally at the Fawwara Chowk in Peshawar Cantonment to express solidarity with Malala Yousafzai.Prof Khadim Hussain, who heads the schools project of the Bacha Khan Education Foundation, was leading the rally which began from Nauthia and ended at the Fawwara Chowk.The students in their collective prayers prayed for early recovery of Malala Yousafzai.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard in Australia lauded Malala in Islamabad even as she fights her own fight against sexism and misogyny in Australia. She was backed today by the New Speaker Anna Burke. There was quite a verbal exchange between the PM and the minority party at parliament.  Gillard accused the opposition leader of misogyny and sexism directly.

But the new Speaker, Anna Burke, said Ms Gillard’s prime ministership had triggered a wave of public and political sexism.

Days after she was confirmed as Peter Slipper’s replacement in the chair, the Labor MP condemned the tone and subject matter of much of the debate in the current parliament.

“I think there is obviously some sexism and misogyny that goes on in the parliament, as it does in a lot of workplaces, tragically,” Ms Burke told ABC radio.

“And I think that one of the disappointing parts about having the first female prime minister is that unfortunately that has brought out the worst in some people in the parliament and some people in the public.

Here’s PM Julia Gillard’s Speech.

Let us also not forget about the assault on the rights of women in this country either.  So, that’s a little change of subject for me this morning. What’s on your blogging and reading list today?

Live Blog 2: Laughing Joe and Smirking Paul Veep Show

Posted: October 11, 2012 | Author: | Filed under: 2012 elections, 2012 presidential campaign, Live Blog | Tags: , , | 84 Comments

Well, they are really going at it.

Vice President Joe Biden and Rep. Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin each went immediately on the attack at the opening of their debate on Thursday night, sparring over Libya, Iraq and terrorism.

Responding to a question on the fatal attack last month on the U.S. diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya, Biden assailed Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney on a range of national security matters.

“Whatever mistakes were made will not be made again,” Biden said of the attack in Libya before pivoting to Romney’s support of the war in Iraq.

Biden credited President Obama for ending the Iraq war, saying Romney thought “we should have left 30,000 troops there.” He faulted Romney for objecting early on to Obama’s setting a 2014 deadline for withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghanistan, and for saying he “wouldn’t move heaven and Earth” to capture Osama bin Laden.

Ryan, the Republican nominee for vice president, said he mourned the death of Ambassador J. Christopher Stevensand three other Americans in the Libya attack, then criticized Obama’s response to the attack.

“It took the president two weeks to acknowledge that this was a terrorist attack,” the Wisconsin congressman said.

Ryan said a Romney administration would provide Marines protecting an outpost like the one in Benghazi.

“If we’re hit by terrorists, we’re going to call it for what it is — a terrorist attack,” he said.

Ryan also castigated Obama’s administration for its evolving accounts of the Libya attack. “This is becoming more troubling by the day,” he said.

WAPO says they have “different styles”.

The first 45 minutes showed two men with widely divergent styles: Ryan, the House Budget Committee chairman, was precise and self-contained, marshalling numbers and policy issues.

Biden was looser and more familiar, chuckling in seeming exasperation several times at Ryan’s arguments, and interrupting the Republican in mid-argument. Eventually, Ryan seemed frustrated with a debate in which the two talked over each other.

“Mr. Vice President, I know you’re under a lot of duress to make up for lost ground,” Ryan said. “But I think people would be better served if we didn’t keep interrupting each other.”

One of Ryan’s best early moments came in response to the debate’s first question, about the attack in Benghazi, Libya, that killed the U.S. ambassador and three others. Ryan recounted how the White House’s account of the attack had shifted, and cast it as a signal of a broader problem.

“What we are watching on our TV screens is the unraveling of the Obama foreign policy, which is making…us less safe,” Ryan said.

For Biden, the sharpest moment may have been when he picked up on the theme that President Obama did not touch in the first presidential debate. He recalled a Romney speech that was secretly recorded, in which the Republican candidate described 47 percent of Americans as people who considered themselves primarily victims.

“I’ve had it up to here with this notion that, ‘Forty-seven percent, it’s about time they take some sort of responsibility here,’” Biden said.

What do you think about this assessment?

The Fix ‏@TheFix

For political junkies and decided voters, this is a great debate. For the rest, it’s everything they hate about politics #vpdebate

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