Saturday Reads: Polls, Ro-mentum, and Forced Mating

Good Morning!

I should be at my mom’s house by now, but I had to stop for another night because I drove right into one of the three monster storms that are expected to crash into each other somewhere along the east coast. At least I got out of the Boston area, where I might have ended up without power for days. But I’m kind of wondering if I’ll still have a home to go back to. Anyway, I drove into a downpour in Ohio. At times it was raining so hard I could barely see, and it was also very foggy. I finally gave up and stopped for the night in Sandusky, Ohio. How weird is that? I hope tomorrow’s weather will be better.

I’ve got some links to get you started today–please forgive me if some of them are old news to you.

I’m going to start out with the latest on the polls. Even though the corporate media is still pushing the story that Romney’s winning, the real statistic nerds are saying that Romney basically got about a 4-5 point bump after the Denver debate, but that has dissipated and now the polls are favoring Obama again. Truthfully Obama never really lost his leads in the swing states he needs to win, but either lots of the media types are rooting for Romney (e.g., Joe Scarborough, Dancin’ Dave Gregory, Jim Vandehei) or they just want to make things seem close for career purposes.

Here’s the latest from Nate Silver: The State of the States

Thursday was a busy day for the polls, with some bright spots for each candidate. But it made clear that Barack Obama maintains a narrow lead in the polling averages in states that would get him to 270 electoral votes. Mr. Obama also remains roughly tied in the polls in two other states, Colorado and Virginia, that could serve as second lines of defense for him if he were to lose a state like Ohio.

On the national level, of course, the race is still basically tied; but Obama has a baseline of 237 electoral votes. He only needs to pick up a couple of swing states like Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Nevada to get to 270. Silver says it doesn’t look like Obama actually got a bump from the third debate–it’s more likely that the numbers are just regressing to the mean. Whatever the cause, Obama is leading in electoral votes

Last night, Silver’s model predicted that Obama will win 295 electoral votes and has a 74 percent chance of winning the election.

Lately I’ve been finding Sam Wang’s blog even more fun to read than Silver’s. On Tuesday Wang had a post on “Ro-mentum,” meaning the mainstream media’s latest narrative that Romney has the big mo and is probably going to win the election. Wang summed up that post as follows:

What is apparent is that the large plunge after Debate #1 came to a stop last week, right around the time of the VP debate. After that and Debate , Obama made some recovery. Now we are at a plateau, in which Obama is slightly – but decisively – ahead….

Today, the race is quite close. However, note this. In terms of the Electoral College, President Obama has been ahead on every single day of the campaign, without exception.

I would then give the following verdict: Indeed the race is close, but it seems stable. For the last week, there is no evidence that conditions have been moving toward Romney. There is always the chance that I may have to eat my words – but that will require movement that is not yet apparent in polls.

The popular vote is a different story. I estimate an approximately 25% chance that the popular vote and the electoral vote will go in opposite directions – a “Bush v. Gore scenario”. I regard this as a serious risk, since it would engender prolonged bitterness.

In summary: Ro-mentum!

Yesterday, Wang wrote a follow-up post in which he hilariously mocked David Brooks’ attempts to make sense of all the polls and falling for Ro-mentum.

It was fun to learn of David Brooks’s addiction to polling data. He spends countless hours on them, looking at aggregators, examining individual polls, and sniffing poll internals. From all of this, what has he learned?

1. Today, President Obama would be a bit more likely to win.
2. There seems to be a whiff of momentum toward Mitt Romney.
(Emphasis mine.)

I am having a sad. All of that effort, and his two conclusions still have two major errors. Evidently he does not read the Princeton Election Consortium. Let us dissect this.

You should go read the whole thing, but basically, on point one if the election were held today Obama would have at least a 90% chance of winning; and on point two Brooks has fallen for the media narrative of Ro-mentum.

Today Wang found another Ro-mentum victim. Ro-mentum watch: John Dickerson, CBS/Slate. John Dickerson (son of Nancy Dickerson) is the quintessential Villager, and I can’t stand him–so I really enjoyed this one.

This is like shooting fish in a barrel. The latest, from John Dickerson at Slate:

It’s a fool’s game to guess whose momentum is greater. But Romney is peaking at just the right moment.

Ah, yes. The Great Election of October 13, 2012. I remember it well.

Wait a minute.

The subject of “political momentum” is a favorite among political pundits. I will guess that John Dickerson and David Brooks (“David Brooks – now with Ro-mentum!“, October 25) might not have found high school calculus to be their favorite subject. I wonder how they did in it.

And John Dickerson responded, completely missing the point.

The funniest thing about Dickerson’s Slate article is that it was a description of a speech Romney made in Defiance, Ohio on Thursday night in which Romney said something absolutely shocking that Dickerson didn’t even pick up on.

During the speech Romney set off a panic in Northwestern Ohio by announcing–based on some internet rumor that he read on a right wing blog–that Chrysler was planning to close the local Jeep plant and outsource all the jobs to China. From the Detroit News:

Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney told a rally in northern Ohio on Thursday night that Chrysler was considering moving production of its Jeep vehicles to China, apparently reacting to incorrect reports circulating online.

“I saw a story today that one of the great manufacturers in this state Jeep — now owned by the Italians — is thinking of moving all production to China,” Romney said at a rally in Defiance, Ohio, home to a General Motors powertrain plant. “I will fight for every good job in America. I’m going to fight to make sure trade is fair, and if it’s fair America will win.”

Romney was apparently responding to reports Thursday on right-leaning blogs that misinterpreted a recent Bloomberg News story earlier this week that said Chrysler, owned by Italian automaker Fiat SpA, is thinking of building Jeeps in China for sale in the Chinese market

People in Defiance and nearby Toledo and other surrounding cities and towns were so freaked out that they started calling Chrysler and the company had to rush out and correct Mr. Mittmentum.

“Let’s set the record straight: Jeep has no intention of shifting production of its Jeep models out of North America to China. It’s simply reviewing the opportunities to return Jeep output to China for the world’s largest auto market. U.S. Jeep assembly lines will continue to stay in operation.”

How irresponsible can you get? Can you imagine if Romney were president? We’d have a major crisis once a week or so.

TPM has an interesting piece up on polls: Live Polls Show Obama With Bigger Leads In Ohio.

Surveys of the Buckeye State have been all over the board in recent weeks as the election draws near. While most show President Obama with the lead, the size of it depends on whether the pollster was using human beings or robots to do the interviewing.

TPM compared the two methods and found that polls conducted by a live interviewer, the method widely considered to be the gold standard, have shown the President with larger leads than polls conducted by automated calls, which are prohibited from contacting people through cell phones. Since early September, live polls have shown Obama with an average lead of 4.5 percentage points in Ohio while his average lead in robo-polls has been less than 2.

Ohio has been the most polled state of the presidential campaign since the national conventions, edging both Florida and Virginia for that distinction. The 44 polls conducted there since the conclusion of the Democratic National Convention on Sept. 6 include 22 done by automated calling, 16 performed by live phone interviews, five conducted online and one based on mail-in responses.

Check out the chart at the link.

Just a couple more recommended reads for you.

Alternet has a must read piece on the horrors the government covered up during the BP oil gusher. Coverup No More: Shocking Photos and Emails of Dead Wildlife from Gulf of Mexico Spill Emerge

Some two and a half years after the BP oil spill, Greenpeace has obtained emails and photos from a U.S. government agency that reveal the extent to which the government tried to shield the public from the wildlife casualties of the spill.

Alternet links to their source article at the Guardian: US downplayed effect of Deepwater oil spill on whales, emails reveal.

Read only if you have a strong stomach.

Garance Franke-Ruta of The Atlantic has a piece on the Republican rape and abortion obsession that provides a historical take that fits with terrific post Dakinikat wrote on the subject yesterday.  It’s titled Richard Mourdock, Mitt Romney and the GOP Defense of Coerced Mating.

Both Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan have enthusiastically endorsed Mourdock, and have stood by him even after he claimed that if a women becomes pregnant through rape, “god” must have willed that zygote to be conceived and therefore a the raped girl or woman must carry and bear the child, no matter how that affects her life. Franke-Ruta writes about the history of forced marriage and makes the argument that other feminists have made–that sexual violence is a means for keeping women under control.

Coerced and not entirely voluntary mating have occurred throughout human history. I had a friend many years ago whose mother was a prize of war in a national conflict; it made for complicated family dynamics. But one sees rape, forced marriage and war go hand in hand throughout the ages, including our own; it is another form of conquest to create the next generation in your image from the bodies of the conquered. Violating women is a way of subjugating a population — sowing fear among the women, blocking the men from access to the future, and rupturing and weakening all the social bonds that made up the society that fought and lost. But for this to work there must also be children of rape. “If one group wants to control another they often do it by impregnating women of the other community because they see it as a way of destroying the opposing community,” former head of the Gender Unit at Amnesty International Gita Sahgal has explained. Women must learn to love the image of their conquerors written in the faces of the children they suckle, and to despise themselves, and their weakness. If captives come to identify with those who hold them, it is only a tale as old as our ability to survive by orienting our beings around whoever has power over us.

This is one reason Missouri Republican U.S. Senate candidate Todd Akin’s mid-August comments that “if it’s a legitimate rape the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down” set off such a firestorm — his beliefs showed deep biological and historical ignorance about the way rape-created pregnancies have been used to transform and dominate whole populations. But in his denial of the possibility of rape-created pregnancy he was acknowledging the truth that would erupt again into public view with Mourdock’s remarks: Post-rape pregnancies are where blanket anti-abortion views become de facto support for coercive mating and the legally sanctioned denial of agency to women not only on the question of whether to have a child, but who the child’s father should be.

Outside of the context of war, rape historically has been something more akin to a property crime than a crime against women per se — the injured party was the husband or father to whom the woman belonged, and recompense for the crime was made to him for the injury to his standing and damage to the marital or social value of the woman. It was also an honor crime, and in large parts of the world rape continues to be seen as one for which women bear primary responsibility. As such being raped is viewed as a female sexual transgression that creates a justification or even obligation for male relatives and community members to shun the assaulted, or, rarely, even avenge familial honor by killing victims.

I hope you’ll read the whole post–it’s very powerful.

Now what are you reading and blogging about today?


65 Comments on “Saturday Reads: Polls, Ro-mentum, and Forced Mating”

  1. ANonOMouse says:

    Good post BB. I hope the last leg of your trip is better.

    Thought you and the other skydancers might be interested in this

    Majority harbor prejudice against blacks. Like we didn’t already know that.

    http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/27/14740413-ap-poll-majority-harbor-prejudice-against-blacks?lite

    • peregrine says:

      Thanks for that link on racism, mouse. Reading further I found that NC passed a Racial Justice Act in 2009. KY passed its Racial Justice Act in 1998. I’m now reading a NC Law Review (Chapel Hill) pdf, “The Racial Justice Act and the Long Struggle with Race and the Death Penalty in North Carolina.” (The NC Racial Justice Act “…allows prisoners facing execution and capital murder defendants to present evidence of racial bias, including statistics, in court”, source is in the NBC news link provided above.)

      • peregrine says:

        According to a foxnews link, “The Republican-led [NC] Legislature tried to repeal the Racial Justice Act earlier this year [2012], but lawmakers failed to override a veto by Gov. Beverly Perdue, a Democrat.” The struggle for racial justice and equality continues here, but this veto is a win for now.

    • RalphB says:

      On memeorandum I noticed that Althouse had a link to that story so I went to check it out. Typical “republicans are color blind” BS, while the commenters were just race baiting to beat the band. According to them, only Obama is a giant racist. What a bunch of loons.

  2. Pilgrim says:

    Dana Milbank’s column in the Washington Post today deals with the very real possibility of a Romney popular vote win and an Obama electoral college win. While this would be the basis of difficulty in governing, it would at least hang on to the White House during the coming years whilst the economy very likely will get back on its feet, thus making way for a Hillary Clinton run & win in 2016.

    • Pilgrim says:

      and here’s hoping, Boomer, that you and your mother keep safe and well and that you do have your house intact when you return

    • bostonboomer says:

      Here are the percentage chances of various outcomes, according to Nate Silver, based on aggregated poll data:

      Electoral College tie (269 electoral votes for each candidate) 0.4%
      Recount (one or more decisive states within 0.5 percentage points) 9.9%
      Obama wins popular vote 71.0%
      Romney wins popular vote 29.0%
      Obama wins popular vote but loses electoral college 1.9%
      Romney wins popular vote but loses electoral college 5.3%
      Obama landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 0.6%
      Romney landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 0.1%
      Map exactly the same as in 2008 0.1%
      Map exactly the same as in 2004 <0.1%
      Obama loses at least one state he carried in 2008 99.5%
      Obama wins at least one state he failed to carry in 2008 5.4%

  3. Pat Johnson says:

    Romney’s LIE about that Ohio plant relocating to China is another sign of his moral failure to actually speak the truth. One can only imagine the panic that he spread with those employees and their families just for the advantage of gaining even one vote.

    It is typical of this man that he either a) totally unaware of what his aides pass to him by way of political discourse or b) he assumes he can continue to say and do anything without challenge because the public just does not care enough one way or the other. Either way it is a shameful way of offering himself for the highest office in the land.

    How can one trust this man on anything? It still astounds me that this race is so close judging by the obsfucation, spin, resistance to answering questions, and the outright lies he commits on a daily basis that would lead anyone with half a brain to consider that he is and will continue to be a person untrustrworthy to lead.

    It seems to me that racism is behind the hatred of Obama – someone who has himself been labeled a DINO – but who has to a large extent has brought the economy some measure of relief through the stimulus No credit has been offered by approving the death of Osama bin Laden that Bush himself acknowledged was the least of his worries which leaves me to conclude that race itself is the driving force beyond any “surge” in Romney’s favor.

    Romney is perhaps the worst candidate for this office ever to grace the national stage. A two faced liar with a perpetual habit of changing positions that would make your head spin but he does enjoy support which makes me leery of the outcome next month.

    I am concerned to say the least that he could actually win this contest and I dread what the outcome will bring should that happen.

    So until the last vote is counted I will remain uneasy since we have seen the GOP at work and it has been nasty. There are enough people out there whose primary effort is to rid the WH of a black man and nothing will stand in their way until that goal is reached.

    • ecocatwoman says:

      I agree that the overarching reason that Obama isn’t further ahead is due to racism. I’ve felt that way since the first salvos were fired – birthers, socialist, community organizer, et al. Then there is the evangelical wing – gay marriage, DADT, a Christian nation. Then there are the NRA nuts – the criminals who get guns are all black or latino because white people only use guns to hunt, a wonderful pastime (bull$hit). And then there are those, nearly all white men, whose only motivation is protecting their vast piles of money – Adelstein, the Koch Bros, Romney, Leder and so many more. In their eyes, they are the anointed ones, they & only they DESERVE success, which is measured by the size of their treasure troves. And, bottom line it’s about retaining CONTROL over the economy, natural resources, power, and having their choice of women (and sometimes other men or little boys & girls). Rape is their MO, whether of women’s bodies and/or minds, our economy or our planet.

  4. ecocatwoman says:

    Really terrific post, bb, especially since you are doing this while on a road trip. Have a safe, smooth trip.

  5. bostonboomer says:

    Rand poll: Obama +6.3 in the popular vote.

    https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election#election-forecast

  6. bostonboomer says:

    My mom just called to tell me that my absentee ballot arrived. Yay! I’m so relieved that I’ll be able to vote.

    • Pat Johnson says:

      Don’t forget Elizabeth Warren bb! I wondered how you were going to cast your vote from Indiana.

    • ralphb says:

      BB, great post. Sam’s been having a good time lately with Ro-mentum 🙂 I really like this comment to John Dickerson’s reply.

      It could’ve been worse, though. At least you weren’t Wolf Blitzer claiming a 4-pt lead in a poll is the same as a tie.

      • bostonboomer says:

        LOL! The Columbia Journalism Review also made fun of Dickerson. He’s so lame. His mother was a real journalist.

  7. Pat Johnson says:

    I bristled at the cries of “racist” back in 2008 because I preferred a candidate I believed had more experience and qualifications over her challenger. I would have been very happy to endorse a Clinton/Obama ticket allowing him to gain more of each as VP then stepping forward in 2016 as a more seasoned candidate.

    But from what I have seen and heard over the past 4 years I am more convinced than ever that race is the singular issue that would drive anyone with an ounce of intelligence into the Romney/Ryan camp. What else could it be when even their surrogates blatantly expose their biases without fear of rejection? The dog whistles are louder then ever this time out.

    For half the electorate declaring their pleasure in endorsing and supporting such a disgraceful candidate as Romney signals as much IMHO. Who could trust this man on anything? Or his party for that matter?

    People seem more than willing to cut off their noses to spite their faces just to be rid of the man they view as a “usurper” based on the color of his skin. Otherwise I have no understanding of the vitriol that has emerged from those who should know better when it comes to the GOP policies that will have a dire effect on their lives.

    Apparently it is better to live under tyranny than to have a black man at the helm for those who stand by this ticket.

    You cannot discount the hate that has emanated from some quarters whenever Barack Obama’s name is mentioned. It is almost pathological when considering the contrast with Romney who has never met a lie he cannot utter.

    • janicen says:

      I have to confess to being naive or at least unaware of the depths of racism that remain in this country. This election has helped open my eyes to it. My hope is that we expose it and then stomp it to death.

    • NW Luna says:

      I too am a bit skeptical that it’s all due to racism, after going through 2008, and being accused of racism for not wanting the unexperienced candidate. But the contrast in candidates now is vastly different than in ’08.

      I remember a virulently irrational relative spewing venom about Kerry, and about Bill Clinton, in the past. Some of the Rs have pathological hatred about any candidate on the other side. The hatred is expressed in many repulsive ways.

  8. bostonboomer says:

    RH Reality Check is collecting stories from women who were impregnated by rapists. Here’s one: Raped by My Stepfather: A Survivor of Illegal Abortion On Why Safe, Legal Abortion is Essential

  9. Joanelle says:

    Safe travels, BB – although I’ve been checking in today is the first day I can really focus – I’m finally home from the hospital and a stint at Kessler Rehab after having a total knee replacement – I’ suffered for a few years with a really bad knee – I was quite the athlete in school – lettered in three sports in college but now am feeling the results of the joy of winning.
    This is a great post BB – Ro has proven to me time & time again that he is a thoughtless ninny who has no regard for the impact of his words.
    Give Mom a big hug and both of you stay safe!

    • Beata says:

      Wishing you a speedy recovery, Joanelle!

    • janicen says:

      I’m glad you did it, Joanelle. From what I hear from friends the recovery is slow but overall they are all glad they did it. I wish ankle replacements were as successful. Glad you came through the surgery and hope your recovery is quick.

    • HT says:

      Joanelle – in the ladies that pool every day, one had her knee replaced awhile ago and is going for the other knee this week. According to her, it will hurt like the blazes for awhile, but the effort is worth is. She comes to the pool for rehab because it’s easier on the joint (which is why I joined as physio for my shoulder). You might want to check that with your physio (assuming you are getting physio), but it truly is a great way to get back the mobility.

      BB – and all east coasters – be safe and take all precautions. Hopefully this will blow over, but the news media here are calling it a potential “FrankenStorm”, which doesn’t sound reassuring.

    • NW Luna says:

      Glad to hear you’re back home and that the surgery and acute rehab is over. Lettered in 3 sports! I hope you enjoy improved mobility and quality of life now.

    • Good luck with your recovery Joanelle, everyone I know who has had total knee replacement says that they should have gotten it earlier…because even though it is painful, is worth it.

    • bostonboomer says:

      It’s great to see you, Joanelle! Take care. I’ll bet the new knee will be worth it.

  10. Fannie says:

    Thanks BB, and glad you’ll soon be at Mama’s.

    After my rant yesterday, I realized one part of denying women choice, is the notes from the doctors, from the police, from the legistures, from the courts, and from Uncle John’s family………….I see why they want to overturn Obamacare, that way they can make laws that will allow them to have that information and to share it with the Church Changers, legit, you know what I mean? Even if you don’t want them to see or have this information they want badly to know, and badly to spin, they will steal it, and call that better quality of care for rape patients in the system. I can see all the drawbacks now, and it worries the hell out of me. How many doctors will just leave the medical field, and how many will just hand over their notes?

  11. pdgrey says:

    Safe travel BB! Loved your links today. Here is a good New Rule from Bill Maher
    http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/10/27/maher-romney-thinks-a-blow-job-is-how-the-pep-boys-clean-out-a-carburator/

  12. Beata says:

    Good links on the Ohio race. My father was from Ohio and I lived there as a teenager. It is an extremely diverse state. My gut feeling is Obama will win Ohio by at least 5% because of better GOTV efforts. Still, it could be a long election night there.

    In Indiana, an internal poll by Joe Donnelly shows him at +7 after the infamous debate while a Mourdock poll shows the race tied. Again, my gut feeling is Donnelly will win by about 5%. Of course, Donnelly should win by a landslide, but I doubt he will because this is Indiana, my friends. The fact that Mourdock is obviously insane will motivate some women to vote against him who might otherwise not vote at all. That may help Obama here and I am hoping it will also help “my” House candidate, Shelli Yoder, who is not afraid to call herself a liberal. Go Shelli!!!

  13. pdgrey says:

    Alabama, “In fact, they’ve approved more than 800 amendments in their history, making theirs the nation’s longest state constitution” This “over amendment” is the biggest reason I can think of, against sending anything back to the states. Here is a tricky little diddy that “would erase wipe out some racially charged language, but would retain segregation-era language saying there is no constitutional right to a public education in Alabama”
    http://www.salon.com/2012/10/27/ala_constitution_vote_looms_on_amending_history/.
    .

    • NW Luna says:

      WTF? on Alabama.

      Washington state has a too-easy Initiative process. We are still cursed with Tim Eyman, a watch salesman and a

      prolific sponsor of right wing ballot measures. He uses the Evergreen State’s initiative and referendum process to undermine representative democracy by forcing public votes on schemes purposely intended to wreck government. Eyman is one of many Grover Norquist clones ….

      (It takes less than half a million dollars to purchase a place on Washington’s ballot; anyone with money can successfully qualify any initiative they want, no matter what the idea or the degree of actual popular support for it).

      If Eyman sponsors something, that’s a loud and clear reason to vote “No” on it.

  14. RalphB says:

    John Avlon takes a tour of Obama hate in books and how they are having an effect on this election. Romney fans just love this hate filled mess.

    Daily Beast: The Obama Haters Book Club: The Canon Swells

    Welcome to the Obama Haters Book Club—a parallel universe of fear mongering for fun and profit.

    • ecocatwoman says:

      Thanks for the link. I guess the only up side is that the only book teavangelicals read is the bible, or have it read to them.

    • peregrine says:

      In one word, the influence that has caused this hatred — foxnews — 16 years of these authors, like Hannity, Morris, Crowley, Ann Coulter, and on, either anchoring or making regular appearances have built an audience in the millions. 11.5M watched the last debate on foxnews. All the conservatives, radicals, teapartiers, & religious freaks have spewed out identical hate themes with, they think, God’s blessings, for surely God is a republican.

      Many of us are waiting anxiously for this election’s outcome because we don’t want to believe they are winning and would begin the retrograde turn as early as January 2013. I mostly scan now and pop off at the edges because I’ve reached my satiation point. The Democratic Party should do some soul, if they still have one, searching in 2013, win or lose, to search out grand ways to counter this new extremism. I’ve yet to find an attack strategy for stupid, however.

  15. pdgrey says:

    Has this been put up here and I missed it?
    “Perhaps even more important, Husted, on his own initiative, had absentee ballot applications sent to nearly 7 million registered voters in Ohio, and, as a result, more than 800,000 people have so far requested absentee ballots but not completed and returned them. According to state law, if any of those 800,000 people who have requested absentee ballots show up to the voting booth, they will be required to cast a provisional ballot so that officials can make sure they are not voting twice.

    However, state law also says that those ballots may not be counted until November 17, meaning that the outcome of the entire election might be delayed.”
    http://www.salon.com/2012/10/26/karl_rove_style_dirty_tricks_in_ohio/

  16. pdgrey says:

    I was over at Salon and I saw that Meatloaf video again. I am still laughing. But it gave me flashback, does anyone here remember Tom Snyder? He was interviewing Meatloaf in the 70’s and Snyder kept calling him Meatball. After being corrected several times Snyder called him Mr. Loaf. 🙂

  17. ecocatwoman says:

    The president & former president Clinton will be Orlando on Monday. Free tickets today. I’d love to go but it’s a 9AM & I have to work.