Live Blog: Returns of the Night

In 17 years of voting at this polling place, nevr took longer than 5 minutes...today it took 1 hr and 5 minutes!

Good Evening!

Tonight we’re waiting for the returns from the state of Michigan even though there are three other states voting.  Hawaii, Idaho, and Mississippi are also voting although several of these are Republican voting events only.

The biggest prize is Michigan where the front-runners – Donald Trump for the Republicans and Hillary Clinton for the Democrats – will seek to consolidate leads over their respective rivals.

Both parties are also holding primaries in Mississippi on Tuesday.

In addition, the Republicans are voting in Idaho and Hawaii.

Billionaire businessman Mr Trump is well ahead in the all-important delegate count, but a poor debate performance and some recent losses to Texas Senator Ted Cruz have raised questions about the solidity of his lead.

hawaiiWhat’s at stake?

It’s an important day for Republicans, in which 6 percent of the party’s delegates are at stake. And by the time the dust has settled tonight or (more likely) tomorrow, about 43 percent of the party’s delegates will be allotted overall.

But really, today is a prelude to the far more consequential contests taking place in one week. That’s because today’s delegates are allocated mostly proportionally, making it tough for any candidate to pick up a huge lead. Next week, though, Florida and Ohio will vote winner-take-all, and the outcomes there could have major implications for the future of the race, since Donald Trump has led recent polls of both states. If he wins those two, he could amass a delegate lead that will be very difficult for any of his rivals to surmount.

So expect Republicans to interpret tonight’s results mainly in terms of what they might mean for next week. Does Trump look mortal, as he did on Saturday, or will he rebound with a dominant performance? Is Marco Rubio truly in free fall, as some recent polls have indicated? Is the anti-Trump vote consolidating around Ted Cruz, or will it remain split?

As for Democrats, Hillary Clinton is up big in polls of both states voting today. A win in Mississippi tonight wouldn’t be a surprise, since she’s romped in the South so far, but it would let her continue to pad her lead in pledged delegates, which is already sizable. But if Sanders gets blown out in Michigan, that may indicate that Clinton is likely to win several other primaries in large, delegate-rich states outside the South — making analready tough delegate math challenge for Sanders even tougher.

Michigan is a state that’s undergone a vast change. It used to be the center of a great post-War industrial automobile industry but most of its lucrative union jobs are gone.  The auto industry is on the mend but no abandoned-detroit-high-schoolwhere as powerful as it used to be in the country.  It is perhaps a great test of the power of establishment vs. outsider revolution.

While Sanders has made awkward attempts to court African American voters, Hillary Clinton has deep ties to the community. She was the first presidential candidate to visit Flint, Michigan, a predominately African American city with toxic water.

Clinton hopes to appeal to people like Lawrence White, a 43-year-old state employee and owner of a small security firm who feels betrayed by every level of government and by both parties. “I’m not just singling out Governor [Rick] Snyder,” the African American Democrat told me in January. “All the politicians including the EPA are playing tit-for-tat, playing games at our expense. It’s everybody. It’s Republicans. It’s Democrats. It’s a globalization of not caring for the people of Flint.”

Just north of Detroit, in the suburbs of Oakland and Macomb counties, live the children and grandchildren of Reagan Democrats, white working-class voters who defected their party to support Ronald Reagan in the 1980s.

I grew up among Reagan Democrats; their racial and economic grievances were the soundtrack of my childhood. For people like Benson Brundage, a Macomb County contractor who told me in 2012 that welfare is racial “subsidization,” Donald Trump gives voice to their fears.

Mitt Romney dog-whistled at them in 2012. Now the former GOP nominee issuggesting that Trump is a bigot.

550x369x102422-004-E40CDA5E.jpg.pagespeed.ic.yKL-la4y8fPolls show that all the midwestern industrial states favor Trump and Clinton.  Here’s a list of the latest polls from RCP.  It’s bound to be a dismal day for Marco Rubio. That’s pretty obvious.  Is Kasich rising since these states should be favorable to him?

Ohio Gov. John Kasich has actually jumped ahead of Rubio for third place in Michigan, and is rising quickly, a Monmouth University poll out Monday showed. He appears to have worn well in last week’s Republican presidential debate, when he stayed out of the Trump-Rubio-Cruz scrum.

So imagine this scenario: Kasich beats Rubio in Michigan. Then, on March 15, Kasich wins his 66-delegate, winner-take-all home state of Ohio, and Rubio loses his 99-delegate, winner-take-all home state of Florida.

Find your presidential match with CNN’s 2016 Candidate Matchmaker

Suddenly, Kasich would become the leading moderate, establishment-type Republican in the race — and Rubio would lack a path forward.

There are a lot of “ifs” for that to happen. But for Kasich to stand any chance of turning what’s been a smaller-scale campaign that’s been much choosier about where he tries to compete into one with a real shot at quickly racking up delegates, Michigan is where it has to start.

Join us tonight for the returns!  I’ve put up a picture from each of the states.  As you can see, there couldn’t be a better example of the diversity in Americans and geography in the states voting tonight.downtown-boise-idaho-3213

Mississippi returns will come in first at 8 pm est so get ready!!!


Live Blog: Democratic Debate from Flint

3882_10153305313471126_1632591984201795178_nGood Evening!

Last night, Louisiana went big for Hillary!  I was so proud to be part of a really good campaign effort by the Hillary Field Team and Louisiana Democrats.  We managed to overwhelm the results of the caucuses in both Kansas and Nebraska given our state has a much higher delegate count.  I will let the Republicans argue about the benefits of size.  However, the next few weeks some of the really big important states will vote.  This Tuesday, it will be the important state of Michigan.  Tonight, there is a Democratic Debate from Flint, Michigan.

On Sunday night, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders will face off in their seventh debate, less than a week after Clinton expanded her delegate lead on Super Tuesday and in-between additional primaries and caucuses on Saturday, Sunday and Tuesday.

CNN will host the debate, which begins at 8 p.m. ET, from the Frances Wilson Library on the University of Michigan’s campus in Flint.

Both candidates have repeatedly highlighted the water crisis in Flint during the campaign. Clinton has said that “what happened in Flint is immoral,” and Sanders called on Gov. Rick Snyder to resign a while ago. The crisis dates all the way back to 2014 when a state-appointed emergency manager decided to switch Flint’s water source from Lake Huron to the Flint River to save money. But the water from that river was corrosive and caused lead to seep into old pipes, which has left many Flint residents with long-term health effects associated with lead exposure and might have caused deadly cases of Legionnaires’ disease.

The debate will come just a day after voters headed to the polls or caucus sites in the Democratic race in Kansas, Louisiana and Nebraska, the same day as the Maine Democratic caucuses, and just two days before Michigan and Mississippi hold their primaries.

Clinton racked up a win in Louisiana’s primary Saturday by wide margins, 71 percent to Sanders’ 23 percent. But she also lost Nebraska and Kansas to her rival by several points in each contest.

Michigan has plenty of problems.  Flint situation with the water and Detroit’s deterioration will likely be topics.  We may also hear about the Auto bailout by the President.kcp

It will be the last time the two will get to argue policy before the Michigan primary Tuesday, and it could possibly be a chance for the two to address the water crisis in Flint, where city residents suffered lead poisoning from the city’s water supply. Ahead of the highly anticipated debate, here are the latest poll numbers showing who is ahead in the race to the national convention.

Hillary Clinton

The former secretary of state has maintained a commanding lead over her main opponent, Sanders, throughout the election cycle. A recent CNN/ORC International conducted Feb. 24-27, found Clinton polling at 55 percent. A poll from Rasmussen Reports had her polling at 53 percent, still at a commanding lead over Sanders among likely voting Democrats. Clinton has won most of the primaries and caucuses so far, and going into the debates Sunday she also has more delegates than Sanders. Clinton has 601 pledged delegates so far, and with 457 superdelegates, that brings her total delegate count to 1,058.

1899807_10153560252278512_9111701879186135496_oSanders is making a big play for Michigan because he’s falling farther and farther behind.

A win in a big industrial state could upend the race, they say — and Michigan figured to be especially receptive to the Vermont senator’s economic message.
But with just two days before the state’s delegate-rich primary, Sanders hasn’t yet made the sale. He has trailed by double-digits in each of the nine public polls taken since the beginning of February. Hillary Clinton’s got the backing of both of Detroit’s newspapers, the state’s top Democrats, and the mayor of hard-hit Flint. While there are signs of tightening as Sanders floods the airwaves with ads, Clinton’s big margins among African-Americans elsewhere raise questions about whether the senator can break through in a state where 14 percent of the population is black.


Hillary Clinton is polling strong in Michigan.

In the Democratic contest, Clinton leads Sanders among likely primary voters by 17 points, 57 percent to 40 percent. But the race is closer among the larger potential Democratic electorate — Clinton at 52 percent and Sanders at 44 percent.

Sanders continues to play loose with facts as shown with this NPR Fact-Check on Michigan’s abandoned buildings and NAFTA.

On Thursday, Sanders tweeted, “The people of Detroit know the real cost of Hillary Clinton’s free trade policies,” along with five photos of dilapidated buildings. Shortly after that initial tweet, he added: “43,000 Michiganders lost their jobs due to NAFTA. I opposed that bad deal, @HillaryClinton did not.”


The Big Question:

There’s a lot going on here, so we’re going to break this into two parts:

1. What does free trade (and especially NAFTA) have to do with the devastation Sanders’ tweet depicted?

2. How big of a proponent of NAFTA was Hillary Clinton?


The Short Answers:

1. Probably not much (though it did cost some people their jobs), and

2. She supported it, though she expressed reservations sometimes. (Either way, importantly, it was signed under her husband’s administration.)

12832559_10207870186731655_1759871699389532639_nI’ve included some pictures of State Senator Karen Carter Peterson who is also doing a great job with the Louisiana Democratic Party and of some of the volunteers who phone banked yesterday to bring the win!

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I can hear Bernie spinning tales right now. Tell us what you think!!!

Additionally, there are two primaries today.  The Democrats held one in Maine. The Republicans had a primary in Puerto Rico.

We’ve got some preliminary results.

The Associated Press projects Bernie Sanders the victor of the Maine Democratic caucuses. With 85 percent of caucus sites reporting, Sanders led, 64 to 36 percent.

And on the Republican side:

CNN and the Associated Press are projecting Puerto Rico for Marco Rubio, who was widely expected to win the territory. As Vann has noted, if he wins more than half the vote, he’ll take home all of Puerto Rico’s delegates. Right now, CNN has him at roughly 74 percent, with 32 percent of votes counted.

As you can see, my little Hill Dawg Tempe and I are relaxing today!  I always wear my Pikachu socks when life’s giving me smiles!   We’ve got more work coming up.  You can make calls for Hillary from your home if you’d like.   I did it in 2007 and I will be trying to call out just as soon as I get my voice back!!

 

 


Live Blog: Nothing Could be finer than to win in Carolina …

gettyimages-509269010_custom-cc0d7bb4353ca060d0b96d4836ecc880b5422693-s300-c85This evening we are following the returns from the Democratic Party voting in South Carolina. At stake are 53 delegates.  This primary is the prelude to Super Tuesday.  All look extremely promising for candidate Hillary Clinton.  Polls close at 7 p.m. EST.

I’m getting this posted a bit early because I will be watching the returns with the Honorable Anthony Foxx–who is President Obama’s Secretary of Transportation— and members of the Krewe of Hillary. Members of the national campaign are beginning to join us here in Louisiana but Texas is the obviously big deal coming up.  Our turn to vote is next Saturday. We’re also one of the expected blowout states.

Sanders was not in South Carolina today. He spent time in Texas and Minnesota.  Two states where polls are showing less than a total blow out.

Sanders is hitting two Super Tuesday states today: He was in Texas earlier and now he’s headed to Minnesota. As a Politico reporter has pointed out, he might miss the networks calling South Carolina. And if Sanders loses the state, Clinton could have to wait for a congratulatory call.

Black voters who are extremely enthused about Hillary make up a solid majority of Democratic voters in the southern state and most southern states.

Black voters account for roughly six in 10 Democratic primary voters in preliminary exit polls reported by ABC New. That would would set a new record: the current record is 55 percent, set in 2008 as then-Sen. Barack Obama campaigned — against Clinton herself — to become his party’s first African American nominee.

Exit polls reported by ABC News also showed that a large majority of Democratic voters, fully seven in 10, wanted the next president to continue President Obama’s policies, rather than pursue a more liberal agenda. Sanders has called for a “political revolution” that would enact sweeping liberal policies — including universal, government-run health insurance — beyond what Obama has put in place.

And exit polls showed there had been no surge in young voters, a key part of Sanders’s voting base. In these early polls, younger voters’ current share of the vote in South Carolina was on pace to be the lowest yet in any Democratic primary contest this year.

Larrie Butler, a 90-year-old African-American man, was born in Calhoun County, South Carolina, at a time when the South was segregated during Jim Crow. He moved to Maryland after serving in the military and attending college, but returned to South Carolina in 2010. He got a voter-registration card and voted in the state in 2010.

In 2011, South Carolina passed a strict new voter-ID law requiring a government-issued photo ID to cast a ballot. When Butler went to the DMV to switch his driver’s license from Maryland to South Carolina, he was told he needed a birth certificate to confirm his identity. But Butler was born at home, when there were few black hospitals, and never received a born certificate. When he went to the state Vital Records office to get a birth certificate, they said he needed to produce his Maryland driving records and high-school records from South Carolina. After he returned with that information, he was told he needed his elementary-school records, which Butler couldn’t produce because the school was closed. So instead he found his census record, which was not accepted because his first name in the census, Larry, did not exactly match the name he’d used for his entire life, Larrie. He was told to go to court and legally change his name at 85 years old, in order to obtain the birth certificate required to get a driver’s license in South Carolina and also be able to vote.

“It made me feel terrible,” Butler said.

This may be a rather short evening but we’ll see.  Polls are open from 7 am to 7 pm. est.  Here’s some exciting and good news!  It’s also not surprising.

CNN says black turnout higher than 2008 – 6:25 p.m.

An exit poll conducted by CNN says 6 out of 10 voters in the South Carolina Democratic primary were black, up from 55 percent in 2008.

How that figure relates to voter turnout is unclear. In 2008, the electorate set a South Carolina record when 23.7 percent of registered voters turned out at the polls.

See the poll, which reveals a number of other details about the electorate, here. 

So, how big will the margin of victory be?  Join us!!!!!

 
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Hello from Second Vine! This is my favorite cabinet secretary now! The enthusiasm in the room during Hillary’s victory speech was amazing!
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Live Blog: Hillary Wins Nevada!!! Will Trump take South Carolina?

wp-1456005296982.jpeg Hello from one of the Krewe Of Hillary!

It’s the first day of early voting here in Louisiana!

It’s also the day that Madam Secretary won the Nevada Caucus!

Tonight we’ll see if Trump manages to win the Republican Primary in South Carolina.

Hillary Clinton will win the Nevada Democratic caucuses, CNN projects, a crucial victory that could ease concerns about her ability to secure the party’s nomination.

With 72% of the expected vote in, Clinton was ahead of Sanders 52.2% to 47.7%.

The win provides a jolt of momentum to the former secretary of state as she heads into the February 27 South Carolina Democratic primary and Super Tuesday on March 1.

Clinton faced a surprisingly spirited challenge here from Democratic rival Bernie Sanders. The two were in a virtual dead heat in recent days. A win by Sanders, who trounced Clinton in the New Hampshire primary, would have dealt Clinton a dramatic setback.

Clinton relied on strong turnout from Latino voters to hold Sanders at bay. Her surrogates fanned out across the Silver State this week, attempting to portray her as the more trustworthy candidate for Latinos.

We’re waiting for the Victory Speech!!

Polls close in South Carolina in ONE HOUR so stay tuned and join us!!!

 


Live Blog: Nevada Democratic Townhall with MSNBC and Telemundo

Good Evening!

x_tdy_townhall_151005.today-inline-vid-featured-desktopTonight we have a Townhall moderated by MSNBC’s Chuck Todd and Telemundo’s José Díaz-Balart . 

The networks have partnered to host a town hall event for the dueling Democrats from 9 p.m. to 11 p.m. EST from the KMA Event Center in Las Vegas.

You can live stream the town hall here in English, or you can watch it in Spanish here at various times.

Both Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton were slated to attend the town hall, which is scheduled to be moderated by José Díaz-Balart and Chuck Todd. Chris Matthews and Chris Hayes will anchor the pre-show coverage, and Rachel Maddow will lead the post-show coverage, according to a news release.

The town hall comes just before the Party’s Nevada caucus, which is set for Saturday. Fresh off a win in the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary, Sanders was tied with Clinton in the Silver State. Both had the support of 45 percent of primary voters, but the Wall Street Journal noted that statistic only included results from six polls over the past year. FiveThirtyEight predicted each candidate had a 50 percent chance of winning in Nevada.

Nevada has 43 delegates who go to the Democratic National Convention to vote for a nominee.

Clinton was continuing to perform better than Sanders nationally, though the gap between the presidential hopefuls has closed in recent weeks. As of Tuesday afternoon, 50 percent of voters backed Clinton. About 40 percent backed Sanders, according to the HuffPost Pollster.

One of the differences that may become clearer tonight is if Sanders insistence on his income inequality message will play better in Nevada than Clinton’s focus on immigration policy.  There have not been any good recent polls coming out of Nevada and it’s a caucus state so the state of the race hasn’t been clearly forecast for some time.

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If Hillary Clinton has her way, the final two days of campaigning before Saturday’s caucuses in Nevada will be squarely focused on immigration policy.

But not Bernie Sanders. The Vermont senator remains largely dialed in on his core message about economic inequality, his approach as disciplined and undeviating as ever.

That’s what makes tonight’s town hall forum here, hosted by MSNBC and Telemundo, an important — but potentially uncomfortable — moment for Sanders.

The Vermont senator hasn’t exactly shied away from talking about immigration policy in the state where polls show him in a close race with Clinton. He has repeatedly talked about his own immigration reform plan during Nevada campaign stops, and he has the support of some activists who have helped him take his pitch local. A group of DREAMers from around the country is even descending on Las Vegas to campaign for him this week.

I seriously hope some one asks Sanders about his appearance with Lou Dobbs where discussed his issues wit the 2007 immigration legislation he voted against.  I’d like to see the segment played prior to the question being asked. The issue came up at the last debate.  This is legislation that Kennedy and McCain wrote and that Obama and Clinton supported.  Sanders voted against the bill and his since hedged his bets on reasons he gave to Dobbs at the time.

Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders briefly exchanged words over his vote against the 2007 comprehensive immigration reform bill that John McCain and Ted Kennedy wrote and that both Clinton and Barack Obama supported, while Sanders and most Republicans plus some Democrats were opposed. Sanders cited as his motive opposition to the bill’s guest worker provisions, which he said were bad because a Southern Poverty Law Center investigation had likened conditions in existing agricultural guest worker programs to slavery.

It’s interesting to compare this with what he said about the bill at the time on Lou Dobbs’s show. Dobbs, for those who’ve forgotten, was a business news broadcaster who refashioned himself as a somewhat Trump-esque anti-immigration, anti–trade deal populist in the mid-aughts.

If you watch the interview you’ll see that Sanders isn’t particularly interested in working conditions for guest workers and he’s also not narrowly focused on the H2 programs the SPLC report was about — he also talks about H1 programs for skilled workers that, whatever their flaws, are clearly not slavery.

Dobbs is opposed to the whole idea of “amnesty,” which Sanders was not, but Sanders also doesn’t argue with Dobbs about it. Sanders doesn’t really say anything about the costs and benefits to immigrants themselves — whether that’s people who’ve been living illegally in the United States or potential future guest workers — one way or another. His focus is on the idea that “what happens in Congress is to a very significant degree dictated by big-money interests” and that “I don’t know why we need millions of people to be coming into this country as guest workers who will work for lower wages than American workers and drive wages down even lower than they are now.”

I’d also like to hear Sanders address Killer Mike’s “uterus” comment as well as the implication of this particular exchange with a BET reporter.

Sanders appears to think that Killer Mike’s comments are okay. However, he took the opportunity to slam Bill Clinton. So much for the high horse riding about going negative in campaigns.

Sen. Bernie Sanders is standing up for Killer Mike after the Atlanta-based rapper stood onstage at a Sanders rally and quoted a feminist activist as saying “a uterus doesn’t qualify you to be president of the United States.”

And he was even more direct when asked about Bill Clinton’s remarks on the campaign trail that seemed to compare fervor for Sanders on the left with the populist anger that created the tea party on the right.

Aboard his campaign plane Thursday, Sanders told reporters that Killer Mike was quoting someone else — but that he agreed with the basic premise.

“What Mike said essentially is that … people should not be voting for candidates based on their gender, but based on what they believe. I think that makes sense,” said Sanders, who has mounted an unexpectedly strong challenge against Hillary Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination.

“I don’t go around, no one has ever heard me say, ‘Hey guys, let’s stand together, vote for a man.’ I would never do that, never have.”

02-18-16-y-10Who among us recalls Hillary’s vagina appealing to our own?  (Well, maybe I don’t count since mine was removed after he cancer imbed.)

02-18-16-z-18I’m still having fun going to Still for Hill to see pictures of Clinton’s visit with workers at Caesar’s Palace.  Frankly, it puts me in a better mood than reading about the latest grumpy gripe by Bernine Downers.

So, pull up you couch, your bed, your chair, your pet and significant other, pop some popcorn and join us in the Nerd Ball Toss at Bernie and the Cheers for Hillary!!!

By the way, I attended the opening of Hillary’s Headquarters here in New Orleans with former Mayor Moon Landrieu!

Here’s a picture and here’s some great poll news!!!

12743907_1205905622770844_1786053751461256636_n12745556_10207024779391620_9059452003051586154_nBookending the former Mayor and his wife are City Councilman Jim Gray and City Councilwoman LaToya Cantrell!!!!!  Hyma Moore is our Lousiana Campaign Coordinator for Hillary!!!!