Good Evening!
Tonight we’re waiting for the returns from the state of Michigan even though there are three other states voting. Hawaii, Idaho, and Mississippi are also voting although several of these are Republican voting events only.
The biggest prize is Michigan where the front-runners – Donald Trump for the Republicans and Hillary Clinton for the Democrats – will seek to consolidate leads over their respective rivals.
Both parties are also holding primaries in Mississippi on Tuesday.
In addition, the Republicans are voting in Idaho and Hawaii.
Billionaire businessman Mr Trump is well ahead in the all-important delegate count, but a poor debate performance and some recent losses to Texas Senator Ted Cruz have raised questions about the solidity of his lead.
It’s an important day for Republicans, in which 6 percent of the party’s delegates are at stake. And by the time the dust has settled tonight or (more likely) tomorrow, about 43 percent of the party’s delegates will be allotted overall.
But really, today is a prelude to the far more consequential contests taking place in one week. That’s because today’s delegates are allocated mostly proportionally, making it tough for any candidate to pick up a huge lead. Next week, though, Florida and Ohio will vote winner-take-all, and the outcomes there could have major implications for the future of the race, since Donald Trump has led recent polls of both states. If he wins those two, he could amass a delegate lead that will be very difficult for any of his rivals to surmount.
So expect Republicans to interpret tonight’s results mainly in terms of what they might mean for next week. Does Trump look mortal, as he did on Saturday, or will he rebound with a dominant performance? Is Marco Rubio truly in free fall, as some recent polls have indicated? Is the anti-Trump vote consolidating around Ted Cruz, or will it remain split?
As for Democrats, Hillary Clinton is up big in polls of both states voting today. A win in Mississippi tonight wouldn’t be a surprise, since she’s romped in the South so far, but it would let her continue to pad her lead in pledged delegates, which is already sizable. But if Sanders gets blown out in Michigan, that may indicate that Clinton is likely to win several other primaries in large, delegate-rich states outside the South — making analready tough delegate math challenge for Sanders even tougher.
Michigan is a state that’s undergone a vast change. It used to be the center of a great post-War industrial automobile industry but most of its lucrative union jobs are gone. The auto industry is on the mend but no 
where as powerful as it used to be in the country. It is perhaps a great test of the power of establishment vs. outsider revolution.
While Sanders has made awkward attempts to court African American voters, Hillary Clinton has deep ties to the community. She was the first presidential candidate to visit Flint, Michigan, a predominately African American city with toxic water.
Clinton hopes to appeal to people like Lawrence White, a 43-year-old state employee and owner of a small security firm who feels betrayed by every level of government and by both parties. “I’m not just singling out Governor [Rick] Snyder,” the African American Democrat told me in January. “All the politicians including the EPA are playing tit-for-tat, playing games at our expense. It’s everybody. It’s Republicans. It’s Democrats. It’s a globalization of not caring for the people of Flint.”
Just north of Detroit, in the suburbs of Oakland and Macomb counties, live the children and grandchildren of Reagan Democrats, white working-class voters who defected their party to support Ronald Reagan in the 1980s.
I grew up among Reagan Democrats; their racial and economic grievances were the soundtrack of my childhood. For people like Benson Brundage, a Macomb County contractor who told me in 2012 that welfare is racial “subsidization,” Donald Trump gives voice to their fears.
Mitt Romney dog-whistled at them in 2012. Now the former GOP nominee issuggesting that Trump is a bigot.
Polls show that all the midwestern industrial states favor Trump and Clinton. Here’s a list of the latest polls from RCP. It’s bound to be a dismal day for Marco Rubio. That’s pretty obvious. Is Kasich rising since these states should be favorable to him?
Ohio Gov. John Kasich has actually jumped ahead of Rubio for third place in Michigan, and is rising quickly, a Monmouth University poll out Monday showed. He appears to have worn well in last week’s Republican presidential debate, when he stayed out of the Trump-Rubio-Cruz scrum.
So imagine this scenario: Kasich beats Rubio in Michigan. Then, on March 15, Kasich wins his 66-delegate, winner-take-all home state of Ohio, and Rubio loses his 99-delegate, winner-take-all home state of Florida.
Find your presidential match with CNN’s 2016 Candidate Matchmaker
Suddenly, Kasich would become the leading moderate, establishment-type Republican in the race — and Rubio would lack a path forward.
There are a lot of “ifs” for that to happen. But for Kasich to stand any chance of turning what’s been a smaller-scale campaign that’s been much choosier about where he tries to compete into one with a real shot at quickly racking up delegates, Michigan is where it has to start.
Join us tonight for the returns! I’ve put up a picture from each of the states. As you can see, there couldn’t be a better example of the diversity in Americans and geography in the states voting tonight.
Mississippi returns will come in first at 8 pm est so get ready!!!
Comments
195 responses to “Live Blog: Returns of the Night”
Thanks Dak!
This should be a weird night.
Why?
Because Kasich and Rubio seem irrelevant but they are still around.
Oh OK. I wasn’t sure if you meant Dems or Repubs.
And the survivors are the two most hated by Republicans pols who have to ride their coattails…
I am quite nervous about Michigan. I would take any kind of win there at this point.
Why are you nervous? Have you seen the polls?
Hillary wins Mississippi, according to CNN.
Hillary wins big in Mississippi
Cruz and Trump too close too call. Rubio way down in the basement!
According to FiveThiryEight, Hillary won 90 percent of the black vote in Mississippi. They made up about 60 percent of the vote!
She also won the most trustworthy vote.
I was wrong, Michigan polls still open for an hour.
This one is for Evelyn Gandy, who like Hillary Clinton, had a proven record of experience and public service in Mississippi. She started out as a State Legislator, Forrest Co. Ms. (Hattiesburg) 1948-1952; then Asst. Attorney General 1959′ State Treasurer 1960-1964, Commissioner of Public Welfare 1964-1967, State Treasurer 1968-1971, Commissioner of Insurance, 1972 -1976, and Lieutenant Governor of the Senate 1976-1980…….
She was much like Hillary, was Breaking Barriers, and said “I can share in women’s victory, and their defeat. I have felt both. We’re not trying to be better than men, we’re just trying to join them”.
My last telephone conversation, Evelyn told me that she “lived her entire life in the political arena, and won every race, except the Governor’s Race and came close to winning that. Being a woman through every campaign has been an issue that I have had to overcome. I am proud our progress, in Ms. and throughout the Country.”
She is smiling down on Hillary, and is impressed with the win in Mississippi tonight, and for the highest elected woman in our country’s history! Victory in Mississippi.
nervous about MI too. we will know by how soon they project a winner.
Why? I guess I’m not up on the latest.
not sure….just nervous about it. Sanders might have closed the gap….hope not!
According to Al Giordano, based on the exit polls, Hillary should win 56-44 in Michigan. AA turnout was high also.
Great!
Al also says that even if Bernie were to win MI, he would still be behind in delegates for the night. IOW, she would still gain on him.
Some people on Al’s site are saying they are nervous because MSNBC reported that people who made up their minds at the last min. went for Bernie by 10 points, but Al says those are likely white voters. AA voters had their minds made up quite a while ago. Also 70% of MI voters want to continue Obama’s policies and some of those want more conservative policies.
But CNN just said it’s a tight race. We’ll know soon.
Wapo is showing Kasich 36% vs Trump 35% <1% reporting in MI.
Wapo has projected a win for Clinton in SM with no reporting. in MI Sanders 52% vs Clinton 47% with <1% reporting
What is SM?
Sorry bad typing MS
Oh, sorry. MS was called a long time ago.
Though this does feel a little like SM.
Only 3 counties have been counted, and no cities.
Keep in mind that Detroit is majority black and won’t come in till late.
Thanks for saying that, I just tuned into the vote and Sanders is ahead. I won’t panic yet!
Most of the count so far is in Oakland Co,with Sanders ahead and 20% counted. Around 100,000 so far.
Trump is now ahead in MI
Trump i holding his MI lead with 3.2% reporting @35.6% vs Kasich 33.6%.
Jeff Weaver on CNN saying Hillary attacked Bernie falsely on the auto bailout. WTF?!
Hillary was absolutely right. Sanders voted against the bill with the money for the bailout. I’m sorry he didn’t like the overall bill. You don’t always get to choose your bill. If you want to be a poitical puritan and not vote for any bill where you don’t like all the provisions, then you don’t get the good parts, either.
I heard that, and cussed his ass out.
MI 5.6% reporting Sanders 51% vs Clinton 47.8%
MS <1% reporting Trump 54% vs Cruz 36%. MI 5% reporting Trump 37% vs Kasich 30%
MS <1% reporting Clinton 84% vs Sanders 13%
Counties to watch in Michigan: Wayne County (Detroit) Genesee County (Flint) Ingham County (Lansing).
Big cities always come in late. Supposedly Flint has run out of ballots and folks being turned away too.
http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2016/03/08/3757998/michigan-ballots-shortage/
Wow, they should have been prepared!
Yeah, Wayne is Sanders so far, but just starting at .2% And I see that we are starting to see other small counties starting to go Clinton
MI 7% reporting Sanders 51% vs Clinton 48%
What is going on with Michigan? She was supposed to be ahead by 13 points today.r
The areas that have been counted so far are wealthy white suburbs. Nothing yet from Detroit or Flint.
Trump wins Mississippi
MI 9.5 reporting Sanders 50.3% vs Clinton 48%
I don’t think I can take this tonight.
Pat,
Even if Bernie were to win in MI, he would still fall further behind in delegates because of MS. As it is now, he has to win 2/3 of the delegates in every state from now on. That isn’t going to happen.
Hillary will have a easy win in Michigan.
I don’t know about that. CNN is saying it will be close.
MI 9.5% reporting Trump 37.7% vs Kasich 29.2%
25% of MI votes have been counted and it’s basically tied.
MI 11.8% reporting Sanders 50% vs Clinton 48.2%
Your numbers are way behind what has already been reported.
Sanders just won Huron Co. Clinton won Alcona.
MI 13% reporting 49.8% Sanders vs 48.3% Clinton
Trump won Huron, with Cruz in second.
Same two for Alcona
Until the big cities come in, the MI numbers are kind of pointless.
Agreed, but Wayne county isn’t reporting quickly; they are only at .7%, and it’s Sanders. We might have to wait for them.
Yup
They’ve called Michigan for Trump.
Yeah, Trump is ahead, and Kasich is second in total votes and leading in 1 county. Cruz is third, in total votes, but is leading in 5 counties. Trump 37.9% Kasich 26.2%
Oakland Co is reporting 65.8% and its competitive with Clinton 49.9% vs 48.6% Around 150 thousand have voted.
Am I tripping to be so worried? How could she be up double digits and suddenly be tied? I know it is early but my stomach is in knots.
I’m not worried yet.
I’m not worried at all. Hillary will be taking the oath of office next January.
Flint is just starting to be counted and Wayne County barely started too. Bernie is winning the white and wealthy areas.
MI 20.4% reporting Sanders 50.9% vs Clinton 47.1%
MS is 11.4% reporting with Clinton 81.9% vs 17% Sanders, so that was a pretty strong win.
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they were correct in calling Mass. for Hillary long before any of the networks did
Here’s the website for Decision Desk HQ
http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/results/2016/primary/dem/president/michigan/
MI 24.5% reporting Sanders 51.3% vs Clinton 46.8%
This Trump speech is making me feel like I’ve time tripped to the Weimar Republic
This is from a woman who knows MI well.
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Try not to worry y’all. I think she will pull it out in the Detroit & Flint. It’s much closer than the polls showed, but regardless the delegates are proportional and she’ll do fine.
Peace and have a good night!
She is losing because of crossover Republicans. She is winning by 12% with Democrats. This is pernicious, the fault of Michigan’s stupid crossover system. Media will never say that, of course.
It’s an open Primary, as are most of the Southern States. I’ve always voted in an open Primary, you go in and tell them which ballot you want. There’s no political affiliation registration. That makes an election a lot more slippery. CNN also said Independents are voting for Bernie by a 3-1 margin.
Genesse Co with Flint reporting 5.9% Clinton 64% vs Sanders 34.7%. Around 2400 votes so far.
While we wait: https://youtu.be/REqoO5FKZDw
Nice!
MI 29.8% reporting Sanders 51.1% vs Clinton 47.1%. Sanders took 4 northern counties.
Wayne CO is now reporting 19% Clinton 52.7% vs Sanders 46.5%
MI 33.9% reporting Sanders 51.4% vs Clinton 46.8%
Com’ on Detroit!
Black precincts still not counted
Did they get more ballots or are those AAs not going to get to vote for Hill?
I think she will get Oakland Co, its almost 86% and she is 5000 votes ahead.
Hillary is speaking right now and CNN and MSNBC are playing Trump’s speech/presser hybrid. He’s babbling like a fool and nobody is getting to see Hillary.
I know, what the fuck is up with that?
Not conceding I hope.
Nope! Just a hi from Ohio!
No, she was speaking after the win in Miss. and speaking at a rally in Cleveland ahead of the Ohio primary.
http://abcnews.go.com/Live/video/special-live-2-14519615?utm_medium=social&utm_source=tw&utm_campaign=20160308
She’s finished so this link is no good anymore.
MI 38.8% reporting Sanders 51.4% vs Clinton 46.7%
Only 12% of Flint is in and she’s killing it there.
Macomb just turned Sanders @ 23.3% reporting
Iron Co is now reporting 31.3% Clinton 50.8% vs Sanders 47.3%. 305 souls that take away some mono-color form the map.
MSNBC is showing Clinton’s speech (tape delay).
https://twitter.com/EsotericCD/status/707396351206809604
Yup.
The large number of independents in the dem primary didn’t help and neither did this: 7 percent of Michigan Republican primary voters were Democrats; by contrast, 3 percent of voters in the Michigan Democratic primary were Republicans.
Kasich came in second on total votes. I guess he looked like a moderate.
MI 42.3% reporting Sanders 51.7% vs Clinton 46.6%. Wayne Co is 33.1% reporting.
Clinton just overtook Sanders in Lake Co.
Berrien just turned Clinton 75.8% reporting and leading by 28 votes
In Miss, based on the votes counted so far, Bernie has 15.8% of the vote. Miss has a 15% cutoff. If he slips below 15% he gets none of the delegates, it’s winner take all for Hillz.
MI 47.4% reporting, Sanders 49.9% vs Clinton 48.3%
Here we go folks……Hillary is closing in.
Bernie’s lead just suddenly evaporated. A bunch of votes came in from Wayne County.
Yup
Here’s the Wayne County Clerk site. Most precincts are zero reporting.
http://www.waynecounty.com/clerk/1609.htm
Flint is mostly out also.
Well something is weird cause Wapo is saying Wayne Co is 49.4% reporting with only 118 thousand folks, and the Wayne Co clerk site only shows 2 precincts reporting
It’s starting to look better. Wayne Co is 45.7% reporting with Clinton 60.1% vs Sanders 38.2%
MI 49.6% reporting Sanders 50% vs Clinton 48.2%
Clinton just won Montmorency Co but lost Presque Isle.
Menominee is leading Clinton
MI 50.1% reporting Sanders 50.3% vs Clinton 47.9%
Wayne is really coming in now
Hell of a contest, right there in Michigan.
Hillsdale Co is now leading Clinton by 8 votes
It’s back to Sanders but competitive.
Well, looks like we’re stuck with the finger wagging, shouting, etc. For awhile
I was hoping it would be over, but going up till June! Mercy.
Just heard that! That could cut into Bernies lead significantly
On the bright side, they think there’s 300k outstanding votes in Wayne county.
Whoopss. I meant to comment in this tread. That 300k is in a predominately black area of Detroit. I think their precints are reporting at about 60%. That could be the pocket of votes that puts Hillary ahead.
Sanders just overtook Clinton in Genesee Co
Clinton just overtook Sanders in Saginaw.
MI 56.9% reporting Sanders 50.6% vs Clinton 47.6%
Sanders has won several small counties Cass, Branch, Iosco, Ogmaw, Missaukee, Kalkaska, Crawford, Oscoda, Otsego, Schoolcraft, MI 61.3% reporting, Sanders 50.6% vs Clinton 47.6%
Macomb just went back to Clinton by 77 votes
Sanders just overtook Clinton in Rosecommon to win, also won Mackinac and Delta.
BSCNN will have a special interview shortly – they announced a little bit ago. Bernie will be requesting more donations. Stand by…………..
That’s why I changed the channel.
MI 67.7% reporting Sanders 50.7% vs Clinton 47.4%
Sanders just won Leelanau and Cheboygan, Alger. Earlier he won Emmet, Houghton, and Baraga. MI 71.8% reporting Sanders 51% vs Clinton 47.1%
Sanders just won Arenac, Macomb just went back to Sanders
Is it just me or does this feel like 2008?
Nah, remember Obama and Edwards pulled out in Michigan. The votes then went to that committee.
Yeh, but there is something about the counties.
They just called it for Bernie.
a bit. yes. don’t like it…
Mercy, I’m a bit confused, to say the least. Why and how did this happen? Hillary gets all of Mississippi Delegates, and that’s a huuuge plus.
Yey on that!
Gogebic, Gratiot went to Sanders and he overtook Clinton to win Iron
???? http://vjel.vermontlaw.edu/files/2015/03/Falberg_photo3.jpg
http://vjel.vermontlaw.edu/fracking-michigan-drilling-natural-gas-impact-great-lakes/
Sanders losing by 12-16% among Democrats, I believe. Taking 71% or so of “independents,” which of course include many thousands of Republicans who simply took Democratic ballots to vote for Sanders. And remember that the vast majority of “Independents” are actually right-wing libertarians. In a closed primary, she wins handily. Way to let Republicans game the system, Michigan, and Democrats.
That makes sense.
MI 74.7% reporting Sanders 51% vs Clinton 47%
Clinton just won Oakland!
Gladwin Co seems a little weird. Sanders just overtook with 94.4% reporting and 780 votes to 74. Hillsdale is competitive at 23.1% reporting and Sanders leading by 4 votes.
Genesee just went back to Clinton. 58.9% reporting and Clinton 49.2% vs Sanders 49%.
Clinton is pulling away in Wayne, I think. 74.6% reporting with Clinton 58.3% vs Sanders 40%.
Idaho is coming in 1% reporting Cruz 39% vs Rubio 27%
Sanders won Osecola, Mecosta, Montcalm, Midland, Clare, Saint Clair, Lapeer, Dickinson, Antrim, Charlevoix, Wexford. MI 84.3% reporting Sanders 49.9% vs Clinton 48.1%
Clinton just won Lake Co
ID 4.8% reporting Cruz 36.3% Vs now Trump 28.6%
Clinton just won Menominee, Sanders won Ionia, Shiawassee Gladwin, Hillsdale, Jackson, Oceana. 90.1% reporting Sanders 50.1% vs Clinton 48%
AP has called Michigan for Sanders.
Everyone please remember that this is about delegates. Hillary got 26 more delegates out of MS than Bernie. He only got 5. They will likely get equal amounts out of MI. That will leave him quite a bit further behind her than he was a at the beginning of the night.
Wapo agrees. 50.1% to 48%
BB is right. Michigan is over. Hillary will receive more delegates from this than Bernie and in the end that’s what this is all about Now we have to concentrate on FL, IL, MO, NC, OH. ONWARD!!!!!!!
Yea. But we still have to listen and watch BS’s BS.
Bernie got one more delegate in MI than Hillary and she either got all of the delegates in MS or all but 1. She increases her lead about quite a bit.
ID 17% reporting Cruz 39% vs Trump 32%
The worrisome thing about these results is that Hillary could have trouble winning Michigan in the national election, if indeed the Michigan voters have decided that they hate trade agreements. Trump’s bellicosity about intimidating all the other countries in trade deals might do well in this state. Ohio is also a worry in that regard, particularly if they put Kasich on the ticket. Sanders trying to hammer at her on trade is not helping a bit. But there is time to deal with it.
Possibly.
As a Michigander, my own guess is that Sanders’ victory was not driven by trade. He basically beat Clinton through large numbers of rural independents casting votes for him. The big issue with this demographic is gun rights. Clinton is the only candidate in either party pushing a gun-control agenda. It puts a big target on her back with these voters.
Sanders likes to claim he gets only a “D-minus” from the NRA, but anyone who knows grading percentages from school can tell you a “D-minus” is 60 percent favorable. He’s their guy in the primaries because he’s against their one out-and-out enemy in this race.
I think you’re right.
Good points. HIllary is very brave to go against the NRA, because they have been very successful in winning state races. As much as I want gun contrrol, I don’t know if expressing her positions helps HIllary get elected. But her courage is indisputable. The media, of course, loves to paint her as taking positions based on calculation, and that is so clearly belied by this.
Well the vast majority of Americans want gun control, so I think it helps her, especially in the GE.
These are good points, but now I’m worried about Ohio. Plus a few other states which show her now with big leads. I know I shouldn’t depend on polls, but she’s been overperforming in a lot of situations, and the polls for MI were pretty darn good.
I think this is about fracking too, and gas in the northern area.
I don’t think this was about trade agreements. More likely Independents voting for guns.
That would be my guess. White “Reagan Dems”
Yes, it’s opened my eyes to who exactly was voting for Hillary in ’08. Us for sure, but also a whole lot of racist Dems who would never vote for Obama. I know we heard about it back then but I never bought it because I thought, “Bullshit, I’m not a racist, I’m just voting for the better choice…” but now I see there were those out there. They are going to run away from Hillary now that she is courting Obama’s constituency, black voters, but she can’t expect the same turnout that he got from them. She needs to broaden her appeal and for gawd’s sake rewrite her speech. I’m a Hillary fan but I’ve heard her stump speech so many times I’m sick of it. I think she needed this loss in Michigan as a wake up call for her campaign.
Yes
Double ditto!!! The curse of the blue dogs strikes again.
She was obviously attracting men that wouldn’t vote for an African-American and now they have white dick, she’s toast with them.
The fifth Beatle has passed: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/obit-george-martin-dead-at-90-727807
Re: Michigan, it looks like the grieving stage for the berners is not coming just yet. Although, the grieving is probably inevitable at this point, because even if Sanders beats Clinton in every other state by the same margin as in Michigan, she’ll still get the nomination.
He would have had to win Michigan by much more than he did to affect the delegates. He got one more delegate from MI than Hillary. She is now at least 218 delegates ahead of Bernie. He’s quite a bit worse off than he was yesterday morning.
He may do well in Ohio, but Illinois is much more diverse than MI or OH. In FL, Hillary is leading 2-1 and it’s a closed primary.
As I’ve said before, Bernie should keep on going to the convention. He will make Hillary a better candidate because she is always at her best when she is down.
I also think that it would be a good thing if Bernie runs all the way to convention even if he’s losing: now that Hillary lost in Michigan, she’ll know that she needs to do some extra work on her general election message, because it’s a swing state and it’s better to lose in these states in the primary than in the general election. I’m not saying we should be ignoring the primary delegates she’s winning in the Southern states, but because of our f-d up election system, 1 voter in a place like OH or FL is worth 10-20 in Kansas or California.
Votes in the primary don’t predict how a state will go in the GE.
Hawaii is going for Trump @ 42% vs 28% Cruz. Reporting 13%
Cruz won ID.
Some info I’ve gotten from Twitter today:
In NY, Bernie did not get on the ballot in 45 voting districts in NY, so he will forfeit them. NY has a closed primary.
Ohio has an open primary only in the sense that people can choose which party to vote for 30 days ahead of time. They have to actually request a party ballot 30 days before the primary, so they can’t cross over on impulse. It would be too late for anyone to switch based on MI results.
I also heard that Hillary’s people weren’t surprised by the MI results, based on their internal polling. They realize now that they took MI for granted–didn’t advertise much and didn’t have much of ground organization. Presumably they will work harder from now on.