Live Blog 2: Kentucky and Oregon Primary Results

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Hey Sky Dancers!!

Here’s fresh thread for Oregon. The last one is getting really long. I had to go out tonight for a family event, so I’m clueless except that Hillary appears to be the winner in Kentucky. We still have to wait a bit before the results come in from Oregon. I’m really hoping Hillary will win there too. It’s time to crush Bernie’s fantasy revolution once and for all.

I’m too tired to write much, but I happened to see this piece at The Hill: Sanders campaign manager: There will be no violence in Philadelphia.

Bernie Sanders’s campaign manager, Jeff Weaver, sought to allay the fears of Democrats worried about chaos breaking out at the party’s national convention.

Speaking on CNN Tuesday night, Weaver said the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia in July would not be a repeat of the bedlam that broke out over the weekend at the state Democratic convention in Nevada.

“There’s not going to be any violence in Philadelphia. We can guarantee that,” Weaver said. “We hope for a very fair and orderly convention. I think everybody wants that. Whoever the ultimate nominee, is we want to unify the party on the back of the convention to beat Donald Trump in the fall. I don’t think there’s any doubt about that.”

Weaver called the Nevada convention an “aberration” and “anomalous” compared to what has happened at every other state convention held so far.

Many Democrats are unsettled by the scene that played out there over the weekend.

Well, I’m glad Weaver seems to have begun to understand how serious this is getting, but does anyone think these guys can control the Bernie bros? They haven’t been able to so far.

From CNN: Dems’ new fear: Sanders revolt could upend Democratic convention.

Sen. Barbara Boxer, a veteran of Democratic politics, says she never saw anything quite like this before.

Loud cursing, shouting, obscene gestures and vile insults, including crude comments about the female anatomy. It was all on display over the weekend as supporters of Bernie Sanders turned the Nevada State Democratic Convention into chaos.

“I was not able to stop these people for doing what they did,” Boxer, a Hillary Clinton supporter, told CNN. “Apparently they’ve done it before. …. This group of about 100 were very vocal, and I can’t describe it — disrespectful doesn’t even explain it, it was worse than that.”

Boxer is hardly the lone Clinton supporter to experience such harassment on the campaign trail. Several top Democrats told CNN publicly and privately that the energy and enthusiasm of Sanders supporters has at times descended into incendiary attacks that threaten to tear apart efforts to unite Democrats against Donald Trump. Several female senators told CNN the attacks have been misogynistic.

What’s more, many Democrats fear that if Sanders does not rein in his supporters, the same ugly scene that occurred in Las Vegas last weekend could replicate itself in the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.

“He should get things under control,” Boxer said of Sanders, saying it was worse than the vitriol during the Bush-Gore 2000 recount. “We’re in a race that is very critical. We have to be united. He knows that. I have in fact, called him a couple times, left a couple messages. I’m hopeful he can get control of this.”

Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California said “I do” when asked if Sanders should drop out of the race after voting concludes on June 7, giving Clinton a chance to “pivot” to the general election ahead of the July convention.

“I think it would be most regretful if there becomes a schism,” Feinstein said. “That’s what Donald Trump should want: a schism in our party. … It’s the responsibility particularly of Sen. Sanders to see that that doesn’t happen.”

I’m glad some Democratic leaders are finally getting the message that Bernie and his bros are out of control. Harry Reid must be beside himself. He told CNN that Bernie “condemns” the behavior of his supporters last weekend, but Bernie subsequently came out with a statement that in no way condemned it and in fact contained threats and ultimatums. Someone is going to have to sit down with Bernie and do more than talk. They need to explain that he’ll lose his committee chairs and have a primary opponent in 2018.
So what are you hearing and reading?

Tuesday Reads: Democratic Primaries in Kentucky and Oregon

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Good Afternoon!!

Today there are Democratic primaries in Kentucky and Oregon. Both actually look pretty good for Hillary. She has spent quite a bit of time in Kentucky and has spent much more than Bernie on advertising there. His donations seem to have dried up, and it’s questionable whether he’ll even be able to buy TV ads in California and New Jersey. Hillary will be the nominee either way, but it would be nice if she won one or both of today’s primaries.

The Lexington Herald Leader endorse Hillary on May 5: Clinton best choice for Ky. Democrats.

Hillary Clinton is the most-qualified person running for president of the United States and has demonstrated the deepest understanding of how to address the challenges facing Kentucky. Kentucky Democrats should vote for her in the May 17 primary.

The difference between Clinton and her leading opponent, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, was evident in their appearances this week in Kentucky. Sanders appeared in Lexington and Louisville, giving his standard stump speech to large and enthusiastic crowds. Clinton’s two-day tour of Appalachia included a session in Ashland where she talked with about 25 people for two hours about the region’s problems and promise. Two other candidates on the ballot have not been active in the race.

Clinton, who has served as secretary of state and in the Senate representing New York, in addition to her eight years as first lady during her husband Bill Clinton’s presidency, has an impressive resume and a thorough knowledge of both this country and its place in the world. She’s smart, extremely knowledgeable, thoughtful and — after decades of withstanding virtually every possible attack — unflappable. In a word, she’s presidential.

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Read the rest at the link. Former Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear also endorsed Hillary yesterday. We won’t know the results until tonight–and I don’t think anyone in the media knows what will happen either. FiveThirtyEither hasn’t made projections for either state. There is an article by Harry Enten up on the site though: What To Expect In The Democratic Primaries In Kentucky And Oregon.

Kentucky doesn’t line up particularly well for either candidate demographically. My colleague Nate Silver’s demographic model, released in late April, projects that Clinton will win the state by about 2 percentage points. Why? In the last general election with an exit poll in every state (2008), whites made up about 75 percent of Barack Obama voters in Kentucky. That’s good — but not great — news for Sanders, who has done better with white voters than nonwhite voters. Blacks, meanwhile, made up about 25 percent. What could turn the tide for Clinton is that Kentucky is aclosed primary, which means only registered Democrats can vote. Sanders has done better among unaffiliated voters in open primaries. There’s been limited polling in Kentucky, but the last poll released there (in early March) had Clinton ahead by 5 percentage points.

Oregon is different. Nate’s demographic model gives Sanders an edge of about 15 percentage points. That’s because whites made up about 90 percent of Obama voters in the 2008 general election. Keep in mind too that Sanders won next door in the Washington caucuses in March by about 45 percentage points. Clinton is expected to do better in Oregon because, unlike Washington, Oregon is a primary and is closed to non-Democrats. I should note that the only two polls taken this year, including one taken this month, have shown Clinton ahead, so it’s possible that she’ll pull it out.

As Enten notes, Sanders will not gain any ground on Clinton even if he wins one or more of the two primaries.

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I will share with you that Al Giordano is projecting that Hillary will win in both states. He’s pretty sure she’ll take Kentucky because of the African American vote; and he believes she could win Oregon because as many as 50% of the votes have already been made by mail. In early voting, Hillary is way ahead of Bernie. And remember, both Kentucky and Oregon have closed primaries, so Bernie’s treasured independents can’t vote.

From Politico: Can Hillary flip the script in Oregon and Kentucky?

Sanders victories are hardly inevitable in either state, and if Clinton were able to win both of them, she would finally put to rest the notion that her fellow Democrats are resistant to her candidacy, even if many seem resigned to having her as their nominee.

Polling in both races has been scant, and neither state allows independent voters to participate in the primary — a significant challenge for Sanders, who has struggled to win primaries that are limited to registered Democrats.

Still, Oregon’s demographics track closely with those of states where Sanders has prevailed. The Vermont senator has dominated Clinton in contests in nearby states with similar features: overwhelmingly white and very liberal with active grass-roots supporters.

“I have certainly been expecting — continue to expect — her to lose,” the chief strategist for one of the state’s top elected Democrats backing Clinton said. “I would have told you that I thought she was going to lose very badly. I still think she’ll lose badly.”

The strategist added that Oregon is “prime territory for Bernie demographically, all white. He’s been drawing big crowds of young people and all that.”

We’ll find out tonight.

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In Bernie Sanders news, the Nevada Democratic party has filed an official complaint with the DNC about the behavior of his supporters at the Nevada Democratic Convention.

A few more links on the Nevada chaos:

The Nevada Dems on Medium: The Facts about the Nevada Democratic State Convention on Saturday.

John Ralston: The sour grapes revolution that rocked the Paris Hotel.

The New York Times: From Bernie Sanders Supporters, Death Threats Over Delegates.

As you have probably heard, the great Al Giordano has officially announced that if Bernie supporters disrupt the convention, thus making it more difficult for Hillary to defeat Donald Trump, Al will move back to Vermont and run against Bernie in the Senate primary in 2018.

Bernie Sanders is campaigning in Puerto Rico today, and he’s apparently in a foul mood.

This man does not have the temperament to be President–not by a long shot.

In other news, we still have a racist, xenophobic, misogynistic wanna-be dictator running on the Republican side. A few interesting reads on Trump:

David Cay Johnston at The National Memo: Trump Used His Aliases For Much More — And Worse — Than Gossip.

What we can show is that when Donald Trump made deceptive phone calls over decades — posing as a Trump Organization vice president named “John Miller” or “John Barron” — he was not always puffing up his reputation as a philandering ladies’ man. In his fictional identities, Trump could also be quite threatening, as revealed in the brief clip below from Trump: What’s The Deal?a documentary film that he successfully suppressed for 25 years with threats of litigation.

The story erupted Thursday when The Washington Post put online a recording of Trump posing as “John Miller,” in a 1991 interview with People magazine reporter Sue Carswell. The fictitious “Miller” described himself as a newly hired Trump Organization publicist for the company boss….

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Trump also used the name John Barron or Baron (he later named his son Baron).

“John Barron” didn’t just puff Trump’s sexual boasting in the press. “Barron” was also menacing, as revealed in the [a] film clip [from the documentary] about his abuse of Polish immigrant construction workers – and the attorney who tried to help them.

Trump: What’s The Deal recounts a wide variety of Trump lies, exaggerations, and manipulations, but the misconduct of greatest interest to voters may be his threatening litigation in a scheme to deny payment to about 200 illegal Polish immigrants tearing down the old Bonwit Teller building on Fifth Avenue (an act of architectural vandalism). Many of the men lacked hardhats or face masks, used sledge hammers rather than power tools, had to pull out live electric wires with their bare hands, in a building laced with asbestos — all in blatant violation of worker safety laws.

A lawyer trying to get the workers paid the meager $4 to $6 per hour that Trump owed them received a bullying telephone call from one “John Barron,” as recounted in the film:

Narrator: Chapter Six. [Voiceover various images of Trump Tower and Trump]

 Threaten the lawyer that the Polish illegals hired after your cheap contractor defaults on paying them. Make sure that the threats are untraceable, in case the guy isn’t scared off.

 Interview On Camera: John Szabo (lawyer for Polish workers):

 “Mr. Barron had told me in the one telephone conversation that I had with him, ‎that Donald Trump was upset because I was ruining his credit, reputation by filing the mechanics liens [legal action intended to enforce payment]. And Mr. Trump was thinking of filing a personal lawsuit against me for $100 million for defaming his, uh…reputation.”

 Narrator: It turned out that Mr. Barron was Donald Trump’s favorite alias.

 When this was revealed Trump said, “What of it? Ernest Hemingway used a pen name, didn’t he?”

You can now view the entire 80-minute documentary, which is a superb examination of Trump’s mendacity and manipulation of journalists and politicians. It’s available for $9.99 on iTunes.

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Here’s a sobering piece from Simon Johnson at Reuters: Commentary: Win or lose, Trump could cause a recession.

Trump contends he can run Washington far better by treating the federal government like one of his companies. He has a very particular style as a real-estate developer, and his general approach to business could indeed be applied to fiscal and monetary policy. Any way that you look at what Trump is inclined to do, however, the result could lead to unprecedented disaster on a global scale.

Trump has already demonstrated a great ability to make the kinds of inconsistent comments that,  — if coming from the mouth of a president — would scare investors, create a great deal of uncertainty, push up interest rates, lower employment, drive down stock market prices and cause the bottom to fall out of the value of other assets.

This kind of destabilization wouldn’t just have negative effects on investor and consumer confidence in the United States. It would spread rapidly around the world and drive up interest rates, bankrupt private-sector companies and plunge countries into a downward default-recession spiral. U.S. exports would naturally crater in this scenario because U.S. allies and trading partners would be in deep crisis and could not afford to buy American products.

The Trump ripple effect would really be a devastating global tidal wave of rising interest rates….

On debt, Trump believes the more the better. His companies issue a great deal of debt because, in the downside scenario, developers like Trump can find ways to pay less than the face value of what is owed. He recently said this approach is an opportunity the U.S. Treasury is losing out on.

The U.S. government, however, is not a speculative real-estate company. Alexander Hamilton realized, at the very start of the nation that having the federal government pay its debts in full, as well as assuming the states’ debts, was of fundamental importance. This was crucial not just for public finance but also for the ability of the private credit markets to operate in a reasonable fashion. And this is what Washington has done for more than 200 years.

“Risk-free debt” is how U.S. debt is described in the world of finance. Once you introduce default risk into those calculations, interest rates would spike for both the government and the private sector.

The paintings in this post are by Henri Matisse, of course.

I won’t be around tonight until late, but if we need another post, Dakinikat will post a live blog to discuss the primary results. What stories are you following today?


Thursday Reads: Agency and Communion in the 2016 Race for President

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Good Morning!!

Hillary Clinton has been making “love and kindness” a theme of her campaign for President of the U.S. In my opinion, that is not only an inspiring message, but it is also an interesting and exciting one for a political campaign.

To me, this slogan is much more inspiring than “hope and change.” Love and kindness are about reaching out to others who are in distress and helping them. It signals caring about people and relationships. But I think “love and kindness” appeals more to women than men.

And why not? After all, we’ve had more than two centuries as a country led by male presidents. Isn’t it about time that the citizens who make up the majority of the electorate had the opportunity to vote for a woman to hold the highest office in the land?

I’ve mentioned before that my focus in graduate school was on language development and specifically on the development and function of narratives across the lifespan and how they affect personality. One of the approaches that my mentor emphasized was pioneered by Dan McAdams, a professor of psychology and presently chair of the Department of Psychology at Northwestern University.

McAdams studied the life stories of men and women and found significant differences in the ways males and females view the world and their lives. He referred to this dichotomy as “agency and communion.” Males tend to be more focused on agency, “getting ahead” and Females tend to be more interested in communion, “getting along.” In other words women are more interested in relationships than in advancing themselves and dominating others.

Of course each individual personality contains both of these characteristics. Interestingly, communion tends to increase with age in males and older women often show more agency in their personalities. This is a generalization, but there is definitely a statistically significant difference in these personality characteristics in the life stories of men and women. Whether it’s based on nature or nurture–personality is a combination of both–females and males tend to see the world and their own lives in differing ways.

Historically, personality psychologists have tried to diagram personality traits using the “interpersonal circumplex” concept. Here’s a diagram using agency and communion:

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The idea is to demonstrate the various personality trait combinations that make people unique and at the same time similar to each other according to other characteristics like gender and age.

McAdams also incorporated Erik Erikson’s personality theories into his work. If you took Psychology 101, you know about Erikson’s theory of lifespan development. He argued that as people go through life, they pass through eight stages. Here’s Erickson’s final diagram of the stages he observed in people he studied:

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I won’t go into this too deeply, but the ages listed on the diagram are fluid. I don’t think 65 is really “old age” anymore. McAdams has focuses quite a bit of his research on Erikson’s concept of Generativity. He has found that even very young children can experience generativity. What we’re talking about here is basically empathy for the feelings of others and taking action to reach out to and help other people.

Hillary is currently in the Generativity stage. In terms of her personality and behavior, she is nowhere near old age. She demonstrates generativity in the way she obviously cares about others and wants to help them. She especially cares about children and young people. During the campaign, she has reached out to the mayor and the people of Flint, Michigan and to mothers of young black men who were murdered. When young people have derided her at town hall meetings, she has famously said to them (paraphrasing) “You don’t have to be for me, but I will be for you.” Can you imagine Bernie Sanders or Donald Trump being capable of that kind of selflessness?

My point is that we are seeing these basic personality differences based on psychological research being clearly demonstrated in the current presidential campaign. Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are focused on themselves as leaders of “movements” that are all about them and what they want to do. Hillary Clinton also shows a great deal of agency, of course; but the focus of her campaign has been on what she wants to do for other people and for her country as a whole. I personally find this inspiring and it makes me feel very enthusiastic about voting for Hillary.

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Unfortunately, many of the people in our terrible media think “love and kindness” and caring for others are stupid, corny ideas and they mostly discount what Hillary is saying and doing and project their own ideas about “the Clintons” onto her. No matter how hard she tries, no matter how often she speaks in such positive ways about the future of our country, the media in general doesn’t believe her or care a bit about her desire to do good.

So that’s where we are today. We always knew that electing a woman president would be hard–much harder than electing a black man. Goddess only knows how long it could take to elect a black woman. But we are making progress, and if Hillary wins the presidency, we will very likely see both gradual and sudden changes in our national consciousness.

Women and people of color have learned that progress is slow; change doesn’t happen overnight, as Bernie Sanders wishes it would. But Sanders is irrelevant now; we must focus on helping Hillary defeat Donald Trump. The possibility that this ignorant, dangerous man could become president should motivate both Democrats and Republicans to work as hard as they can to defeat him.

Women, people of color, and other marginalized citizens like LGBT and disabled people can understand Hillary’s message better than the the privileged white men who presently control most of the levers of power in our country. We are the ones who will help Hillary save the country from Donald Trump. Privileged white men have a choice: they can join us or they can remain irrelevant.

Now a few reads to check out:

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This piece by Charlies Pierce made me very angry yesterday, but today I see Pierce in the context of many white male journalists who simply don’t understand that white males and what excites them will not decide the 2016 election. The election will be decided by women and people of color.

I Am Not Convinced Hillary Clinton Is the Right Candidate to Take on Trump.

Let us stipulate a few things at the start. Hillary Rodham Clinton is still odds-on to be the next president of the United States. Only George H.W. Bush among modern presidents had anything close to her CV, and he never was a senator from a major state. She has been the victim of incredible abuse and the subject of fantastical lies ever since she first stepped onto the public stage in Arkansas. She is as tough and durable a political figure as any we’ve seen with the possible exception of the guy she married and the guy that has the job now. Electing a woman to be president of the United States is a genuinely big honking historic deal. Electing this particular woman president of the United States is the only sane and plausible choice available….

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I would also stipulate the following—as a presidential candidate, as a seeker of votes, as an applicant for the world’s most powerful temp position, for the second time in a row, she’s proving to be something of a mediocrity….

HRC is a plodder. There’s nothing wrong with that. Many great politicians have been plodders; it can be argued that—his ability to galvanize an audience aside—the current president is something of a plodder. What is what he memorably called “the hard, necessary work of self-government” in his acceptance speech at the 2012 Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, if not an appeal for people to understand that progress does not come like thunderclaps and lightning. But the problem, as I see it, anyway, is the problem of horses-for-courses. A pure plodder is not the best candidate to put in a race against someone who is completely unmoored from consequence, who makes up policy positions on the fly, an improv act for whom the truth is whatever he decides to say next. Against this, HRC can look slow and stolid.

Read the rest at the link if you wish. In my opinion, what Charles Pierce thinks about Hillary is irrelevant. Older white men like him are not the voters who will elect her. I hope he decides to convince other men like him to support her too, but we can probably do without a lot of them. We are the future; they can join us or continue to be irrelevant.

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Melissa McEwan at Blue Nation Review: When I Was a Little Girl I Memorized a List of Male Presidents.

When I was in fifth grade, I had to memorize the list of US presidents. At that time, there were 40 of them. To help me remember them, I looked at a series of their portraits contained in my parents’ set of encyclopedias, as I sat cross-legged on the orange shag carpeting of our living room while a re-run of “Barney Miller” played on the telly.

To this day, I can conjure the cross stare of Millard Fillmore and the Ichabodian visage of William Henry Harrison.

There was something about all those faces, first rendered in oil and then reprinted for my perusal, that made me ask my teacher how a person became president.

Something about the way I asked made her think I was asking what I might do if I wanted to be president someday. That was not what I was asking. I am criminally shy and despise being the center of attention; a position as visible as the presidency would be my worst nightmare. But I also wasn’t really asking what it took to become president, either.

I was asking, without saying it, what it would take—was it even possible—for a woman to be president.

Please read the rest–it’s great. I went through the same thing as a young girl–and I’m a lot older than McEwan. I wondered why women were rarely doctors or college professors or lawyers or much of anything other than schoolteachers, nurses, or secretaries. And even women who did those jobs were looked down on–they should have gotten married, had children, and spent their days cleaning house and cooking. Today we are on the cusp of electing a woman president!

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Peter Daou at Blue Nation Review: Hillary’s Long Game Is Why Bernie and Trump Can’t Defeat Her. Daou says he observed Hillary’s campaign as similar to a game of chess.

From Hillary’s admirers we hear about Hillary’s discipline, resilience, compassion, experience and knowledge. From her detractors, we hear she is robotic, calculating, and dishonest.

What we rarely hear about from either side is her uncanny ability to play the long game, to see through the fog of news cycles, to hear through the cacophony of opinions, and to make decisions that are many steps ahead of her opponents.

Hillary understands that Bernie Sanders will win more races on his way to defeat, that Trump will keep attacking her marriage on his way to defeat, that the media will jump at the catnip, that pundits will make grave prognostications, that social media will light up with hourly trends.

What Hillary also knows is that her voters are profoundly invested in her campaign and that their support gives her the capacity to withstand intense attacks and weather the most turbulent news cycles.

She is playing the long game, knowing that media hype is just that: hype.

What seems like an earth-shattering issue today is a hazy memory tomorrow. What feels like a crushing defeat one night is forgotten the next. What seems like an insurmountable obstacle on the road ahead is quickly lost in the rear view mirror.

I loved that.

Finally, two pieces about Bernie Sanders that demonstrate where he falls on the agency-communion axis:

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David Wade at Politico: Bernie Sanders, the Zombie Candidate. It’s already over, and now he’s just causing havoc. I’ve seen firsthand how much damage this kind of candidacy can do.

When he first decided to run for president, Bernie Sanders had a goal in mind: to start a political revolution by getting big money out of politics.

If he wants to do it—if Sanders wants to build a lasting movement to fight money’s outsize influence—he has to close one door to open another. The transition from contender to gracious supporter of the nominee isn’t easy for any presidential candidate, but he needs to make it, and soon.

We already know Sanders isn’t going to win the Democratic Party’s nomination; Hillary Clinton has amassed more than 92 percent of the delegates needed to secure the nomination, and she’ll easily pick up the rest. So right now, Sanders’ campaign is the walking dead: a zombie. And having worked for John Kerry during the slugfest of the 2004 primaries, I’ve seen up close how much damage this sort of prolonged “zombie” candidacy can inflict on the eventual nominee—and what’s ultimately at stake for the country.

I don’t claim that the dragged-out primary made the difference in November 2004; the race came down to the wire, and big forces—including post-9/11 anxiety and “Swift Boat” smears—loomed large. But in presidential campaigns, the one resource that’s never renewable is time. Zombie candidates can’t win the nomination, but they squander vast amounts of time and slowly chip away at the prohibitive front-runner. Some of the damage is obvious—the endless series of public dents in the candidate’s reputation; some are subtle, noticeable in ways that perhaps only political operatives can appreciate.

Read more at the link.

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Jon Reinish at The Observer: Bernie Sanders Only Cares About Bernie Sanders.

Each election has what become its accepted narratives: themes that, over time, gel into what are considered reliable facts that are no longer vetted or questioned. As the Democratic campaign finally wraps up, it’s time to put two persistent ones to bed: Hillary Clinton is unpopular and limping to a finish, and Bernie Sanders is a progressive from way outside the system.

Neither could be farther from the truth….let’s look at the overall race and break it down by the numbers: Hillary Clinton is ahead of her primary opponent by over three million votes. In the Democratic primary, she’s still ahead by about 300 pledged delegates. America knows her. Which is probably in no small part why she’s so far ahead and why the country is saying a resounding yes to her in such massive numbers.

Call it what you want, but acknowledge she’s ahead.

It’s simply inaccurate to say that a campaign putting those kinds of numbers on the board is limping. They are sprinting. Yet the theme persists it’s one dead-cat bounce after another and she should be “doing better.” But what does that mean? That she should win every state?  Even the best campaigns have good and bad days. That she should have sewn it up by now? Well, newsflash, she actually does have it sewn up by now. Every national campaign has certain good states and certain bad states. The Democratic Party, thank God, isn’t monolithic.

She’s unpopular? Well, first of all that’s sexist, as is the consistent devaluing and snide parsing of every success she has, which the media does. But tell me this: how is she unpopular? That she doesn’t draw 20,000 hipsters to a rally? Those are optics. And they don’t vote in the same number as Hillary Clinton’s core demographics (if I was running for office? I’d ignore the whole Flight of the Conchords crowd and focus on older voters, college educated whites, middle aged women, African Americans and rising new American communities including Latinos and Asians: they vote). How can somebody who, according to accepted wisdom is so unpopular, be winning by so much? Voters support their candidate because they want to. Not because they are forced to. And it’s clear by polls and votes that Hillary Clinton is vastly preferred.

Ergo, a winning candidate.

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On Bernie:

As for being a progressive—other than saying how progressive he is ad nauseum—frankly, I just don’t see it. Senator, you’re no Ted Kennedy. There’s no solid legislative record of liberal lawmaking; and I don’t see him leading a single movement until he decided to run for President.

Bernie Sanders is a fighter for Bernie Sanders.

His record points to a career—with the exception of his mind boggling and shameful record on guns—as a reliable left-wing backbencher. Fair enough, and we need the votes and I hope he continues that trend when he’s back in the Senate next year. Congress is full, by the hundreds, in both chambers and on both sides of the aisle, of said rank-and-file backbenchers. But the idea that he has been a liberal crusader with an enviable quiver full of results is hogwash. Voters haven’t seen Mr. Sanders out in front on healthcare, on choice, on climate change and sustainability, in a meaningful way—backed up by the decades-long track record of results that, by the way, he should have by now if he’s a serious person—any more than they’ve seen him at the Met Gala in Alexander Wang. He occupied a vague niche in the mind of the American public until about ten political minutes ago.

This article is a must read!

Now that I’ve gone on for so long, I’ll turn the floor over to you. Please share your thoughts and links in the comment thread. As always, this is an open thread.


Tuesday Reads: Is Donald Trump Cognitively Impaired?

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Good Afternoon!!

Today is the West Virginia primary. As Al Giordano says, we are in “garbage time” now, and the Clinton campaign is focusing on the general election while Sanders tries to win delegates as the primary clock runs down. He has no chance to win the nomination, so Hillary is trying to let him and his followers down gently by not running a lot of ads in the state. Bernie is favored to win; but it will probably be close, and he will likely net just a few delegates–perhaps 3 or 6. That won’t put much of a dent in Hillary’s lead.

The time has come for Hillary supporters to project quiet confidence and ignore Bernie and his bros as they metaphorically throw themselves to the floor kicking and screaming in their childish tantrums. We are in a much bigger battle now. We have to focus on keeping an ignorant, narcissistic, sociopathic, megalomaniac and wannabe tyrant out of the White House.

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Today I want to examine a very serious question: Is Donald Trump suffering from a cognitive disorder or some form of dementia? Donald’s father Fred suffered from Alzheimer’s disease. He was diagnosed six years before he died at age 93, but it’s likely he was experiencing symptoms before that. Wealthy and famous people tend to be protected in our culture even when they are behaving in ways that would be labeled as “crazy” in “ordinary” citizens.

Donald certainly shows a number of signs of having cognitive difficulties. He is 69 years old and, if elected, would be the oldest U.S. President ever inaugurated. Hillary Clinton is only one year younger than Trump, but she appears to be functioning at a very high level intellectually.

Clinton has no problem remembering names, no obvious difficulty with thinking and speaking coherently, and is obviously capable of making and understanding complex arguments. Donald Trump, on the other hand, appears to have difficulty staying focused on a subject or question; and either his short-term memory abilities are damaged or he’s an extremely unskilled liar.

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Several writers addressed the possibility that Trump could be cognitively impaired early in his campaign. Here’s an example from an academic blog called Language Log: Trump’s aphasia, by Geoff Pullum.

The following word-stream (it cannot be called a sentence) was uttered by Republican presidential contender Donald Trump on July 21 in Sun City, South Carolina. As far as I can detect it has no structure at all: the numerous conditional adjuncts never arrive at consequents, we never encounter a main verb or even an approximation to a claim. The topic seems to be related to nuclear engineering, Trump’s uncle, the Wharton School, Trump’s intelligence, politics, prisoners, women’s intelligence, and Iran. But it’s hard to be sure:

Look, having nuclear—my uncle was a great professor and scientist and engineer, Dr. John Trump at MIT; good genes, very good genes, OK, very smart, the Wharton School of Finance, very good, very smart—you know, if you’re a conservative Republican, if I were a liberal, if, like, OK, if I ran as a liberal Democrat, they would say I’m one of the smartest people anywhere in the world—it’s true!—but when you’re a conservative Republican they try—oh, do they do a number—that’s why I always start off: Went to Wharton, was a good student, went there, went there, did this, built a fortune—you know I have to give my like credentials all the time, because we’re a little disadvantaged—but you look at the nuclear deal, the thing that really bothers me—it would have been so easy, and it’s not as important as these lives are (nuclear is powerful; my uncle explained that to me many, many years ago, the power and that was 35 years ago; he would explain the power of what’s going to happen and he was right—who would have thought?), but when you look at what’s going on with the four prisoners—now it used to be three, now it’s four—but when it was three and even now, I would have said it’s all in the messenger; fellas, and it is fellas because, you know, they don’t, they haven’t figured that the women are smarter right now than the men, so, you know, it’s gonna take them about another 150 years—but the Persians are great negotiators, the Iranians are great negotiators, so, and they, they just killed, they just killed us.

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Here’s a response from another language blogger, Arnold Zwicky:

It seems to me that Trump was leaping aimlessly about from topic to topic and referent to referent, the mark of the flight of ideas.

Thought disorder. From Wikipedia:

Thought disorder (TD) or formal thought disorder (FTD) refers to disorganized thinking as evidenced by disorganized speech. Specific thought disorders include derailment, poverty of speech, tangentiality, illogicality, perseveration, neologism, and thought blocking.

[among the recognized derangements is the …]”Flight of ideas” – a form of formal thought disorder marked by abrupt leaps from one topic to another, albeit with discernable links between successive ideas, perhaps governed by similarities between subjects or, in somewhat higher grades, by rhyming, puns, and word plays (clang associations), or innocuous environmental stimuli – e.g., the sound of birds chirping. It is most characteristic of the manic phase of bipolar illness.

Now I’ve written here about “associative thinking”, in which someone moves through a chain of ideas, each one latching naturally to the one before, but easily capable of carrying someone far from a starting point. We all think this way, and everyday conversation tends to follow such paths, only for a group as a whole rather than for just one speaker. There is nothing disordered in any of that.

I’ve observed the flight of ideas up close in people in the manic phase of bipolar illness, and somewhat similar associations in classic schizophrenics, and indeed related disordered associations in people with dementia, including my partner Jacques (who was especially subject to intrusions of sounds and sights from the environment into his train of thought). Donald Trump looks distressingly familiar to me.

Is is possible that Trump suffers from bi-polar illness with mania being the main symptom? He says that he sleeps very little and he often tweets in the middle of the night. Or could it be dementia? I have no idea whether Trump has always spoken so incoherently or if his symptoms are increasing with age. I do think it is a serious question for voters to be aware of and for journalists to investigate.

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There is also the question of Trump’s ability to lay down long-term memories. Is he just a blatant liar, or does he have difficulty recalling things he has said very recently? One egregious example of this is Trump’s claims that he opposed the Iraq war back when the Bush administration was ramping it up. From Eric Black at MinnPost in February:

Trump is great at non-answer word salads in which he not only interrupts the questioner but constantly interrupts himself, puts out little self-congratulatory asides and says whatever he wants, usually things he has said a million times before but which often qualify as non-answers.

Trump has made a yuuuge deal about how he warned in advance, long and loud, that the Iraq War would be a disaster. Joe asked him about why no one can find any transcript of him saying anything remotely along these lines until after the war started. His explanation, Thursday night and I guess every time he is asked this, is to say that because he wasn’t in public office or anything, his prescient warnings didn’t make it into any transcripts or video archives. Then he goes right back to claiming to have said it long and loud and in advance and doesn’t explain why so many of his later statements about the war (which are far more mixed than he describes them) manage to show up in the public record, since he was still not in public office or anything.

There is absolutely no evidence that Trump ever opposed the invasion of Iraq and plenty of evidence that he supported it. Is he deliberately lying or does he simply not recall what he believed back in the 2000’s?

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally, Friday, Dec. 11, 2015, in Des Moines, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally, Friday, Dec. 11, 2015, in Des Moines, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Another example from a February post at Daily Kos:

Trump has frequently bragged that he has“one of the best memories of all time.” However, that boast has been utterly demolished by his own words and actions. One notable example was his insistence that he had seen television reporting of “thousands and thousands” of Muslims celebrating the collapse of the World Trade Center towers on 9/11. That was an invented memory because there is no evidence that it occurred, despite the fact that television footage of such an event would be easily retrievable.

Trump’s memory was also noticeably deficient when he recently began hammering Ted Cruz as a “nasty guy” and “the single biggest liar” he ever met. Just three months ago he was lauding Cruz and floating him as a possible VP pick. Similarly he once praised Hillary Clinton as a “terrific” woman and a great Secretary of State. Now he is saying that she was the “worst Secretary of State in history.” And as for President Obama, today Trump tweeted that he is “perhaps the worst president in U.S. history.” But this is what he wrote in his book “Think Like A Champion:”

“What he has done is amazing. The fact that he accomplished what he has—in one year and against great odds—is truly phenomenal.” […]”Barack Obama proved that determination combined with opportunity and intelligence can make things happen—and in an exceptional way.” […]

“His comments have led me to believe that he understands how the economy works on a comprehensive level. He has also surrounded himself with very competent people, and that’s the mark of a strong leader.” […]

“He’s totally a champion.”

Clearly Trump has either a failing memory or mental blocks that render his memory unreliable. Many other examples exist. For instance, he said he couldn’t remember a disabled reporter that disgustingly mocked, but they had met many times; he threatened to sue Cruz three days after he promised that he never would; he complained that the media never reported a comment by Jeb Bush and seconds later, after Bush denied the charge, Trump defended himself by saying that the news reported it ten times.

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There are numerous examples of Trump’s incoherent thinking. I’d strongly suggest that you read the transcript of his interview with The Washington Post editorial board if you haven’t done so already. This section of the interview has gotten quite a bit of attention:

RYAN: You [MUFFLED] mentioned a few minutes earlier here that you would knock ISIS. You’ve mentioned it many times. You’ve also mentioned the risk of putting American troop in a danger area. If you could substantially reduce the risk of harm to ground troops, would you use a battlefield nuclear weapon to take out ISIS?

TRUMP: I don’t want to use, I don’t want to start the process of nuclear. Remember the one thing that everybody has said, I’m a counterpuncher. Rubio hit me. Bush hit me. When I said low energy, he’s a low-energy individual, he hit me first. I spent, by the way he spent 18 million dollars’ worth of negative ads on me. That’s putting [MUFFLED]…

RYAN: This is about ISIS. You would not use a tactical nuclear weapon against ISIS?

[CROSSTALK]

TRUMP: I’ll tell you one thing, this is a very good looking group of people here.  Could I just go around so I know who the hell I’m talking to?

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This happened toward the end of the interview and Trump seemed unaware of how long he’d been talking. He also seemed unaware that he had time-limited the interview because he had to be at another meeting.

HIATT: Sure, then I’d like to let a couple of them get in questions.

LEWANDOWSKI: We have got five minutes, hard out.

HIATT: Okay.

TRUMP: Oh is it?

CORY: Yeah. You have a meeting you have to get to.

There are endless examples of Trump’s disordered thinking and use of language. There is clearly something wrong with him. In a few months, this man will be receiving confidential security briefings and there is even a chance that he could become President. I’m going to list more article for you to check out, and I hope you’ll read them, consider this question, and talk to your friends and neighbors about it.

Jennifer Rubin at The Washington Post: Trump’s word salads conceal his ignorance.

Max Eherenfreund at Wonkblog: Five times Donald Trump changed his position on a really big issue.

Steve King at Death and Taxes: Does Donald Trump have dementia?

The Inquistor: Does Donald Trump Have Alzheimer’s? Questions about the GOP Frontrunner’s Mental Fitness Arise.

Sophia A. McClennon at Alternet: Maybe Donald Trump Has Really Lost His Mind: What If the GOP Frontrunner Isn’t Crazy, but Simply Not Well?

Now what stories are you following today? Please post your thoughts and links in the comment thread and have a great Tuesday!


Thursday Reads: The End of the Primaries and The Hard Road Ahead

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Good Morning!!

So this is the new normal. Donald Trump is the nominee of the Republican Party. The candidate is wholeheartedly supported by white supremacists and KKK leaders. Serious politicians and journalists are referring to him as a tyrant in the making.

We’re being told this is unprecedented. I would argue that Ronald Reagan was close, but at least he had been Governor of California and had been involved in party politics for years. Trump is not a serious person by any stretch of the imagination, and he clearly knows nothing about politics or how the U.S. government works. His knowledge of foreign policy is limited to his own experiences as a businessman.

It’s well past time for the mainstream media to state bluntly what Trump’s campaign is about, but I don’t know if they will ever do it. The reason people are supporting Trump is because he represents and enables their racism, xenophobia, and misogyny. Period. Yet NBC News, a once venerable journalistic organization, chose to anchor its entire evening news broadcast from Trump HQ last night!

The "short-fingered vulgarian"

The “short-fingered vulgarian”

Mediaite: NBC Makes Curious Decision to Let Lester Holt Anchor Nightly News from Trump Tower.

Lester Holt interviewed Donald Trump in Trump Tower tonight, which is fine, but it came with the rather curious decision to anchor the entire NBC Nightly News broadcast from Trump Tower.

It’s not clear why this happened, but whatever the case, Trump Tower was visible in the background during Holt’s live reports on the news of the day, as well as the interior of Trump’s office during the interview….

Fun experiment: imagine how people would react if, say, a nightly network newscast anchored live from, say, Chappaqua.

You can read sample reactions from Twitter at the link. Many people wondered why Trump could not have walked the short distance to NBC headquarters at 30 Rock for the interview. It appears that the powers that be at NBC and MSNBC will continue to treat Trump as if he were on the verge of becoming king instead of running for president of a supposed democratic republic.

Also from Mediaite, Tommy Christopher explains what Trump is all about: Donald Trump’s Win Isn’t Some ‘Anti-Establishment’ Wave, It’s the Racism Stupid.

It’s all over but the crying, which will also be fun to watch, but even after all these many months of Donald Trump vanquishing foe after foe, the media still doesn’t get it. They still bang on about this anger at “the establishment,” and as a result, they are giving Hillary Clinton bad advice already. During CNN’s coverage of the Indiana primary Tuesday night, liberal commentator and Bernie Sanders supporter Van Jones became just the latest pundit to misdiagnose the Trump phenomenon, and connect it to Bernie Sanders. There is a similarity, but not the one Jones identifies.

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The same rebellion is happening in the country in both parties. The reason Hillary is still fighting is the reason that Trump won. There is a big, big discontent in this country and tonight for Bernie Sanders and we can say the same thing about Bernie, he shouldn’t be here either. I just don’t think that people get it yet. You got people sitting on a white hot stove in their houses right now and they are mad… I do think (Hillary) has got to, tonight, show that she’s got the message from both parties, the message from the Republicans, they’re mad and hurting, the message from the Democrats, they’re mad and hurting.

Jones is so close to being right, he even calls the anger “white hot,” but he just misses the absolutely crucial key to Hillary Clinton’s eventual defeat of Trump.

And even Van Jones can’t see it and say it. It’s all about racism and white male resentment. Read the rest and watch video at the link. The reason why Jones can’t point out the obvious truth is that his candidate–Bernie Sanders–is also appealing to white male resentment. The only difference is that Sanders is focused on hatred of Wall Street instead of hatred of people of color. But Sanders has been attacking our African American POTUS over the years and in this campaign.

As for “giving Hillary Clinton bad advice,” she doesn’t take advice from the media and she is already calling out Trump’s racism and xenophobia as well as his misogyny and ignorance of world affairs.

Now that it’s too late, “reasonable” Republicans and conservatives are saying they won’t vote for Trump no matter what. Massachusetts’ {Gag} {Choke} Republican Governor Charlie Baker is one of them. The Boston Globe:

Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker said he will not vote for his party’s nominee Donald Trump and won’t support likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

“The things he said about women and Muslims and religious freedom, I just can’t support,” Baker said. “At the same time, I do believe Secretary Clinton has a huge believability problem.”

Is that so. Maybe you should just focus on your own party’s nominee, asshole.

And while endorsing New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie back in February, Baker specifically called out Trump.

“I think there’s a certain temperament and a certain collaborative nature that’s fundamental to somebody’s ability to succeed in government, and I question whether he has the temperament and the sense of purpose that’s associated with delivering on that,” Baker said.

Despite those questions, Baker acknowledged on Wednesday that Trump would be the nominee.

“I give him credit for it,” Baker said. “He earned it fair and square, and congratulations to him.”

F**k you, Charlie. If that’s all you have to say about this nightmare for the country, you’re nothing but a coward. And besides you endorsed Chris Christie, who could very well be the VP nominee! Trump even said he’s “open to Cruz” as VP!

Former Oklahoma GOP Rep. MIckey Edwards was on Chris Hayes’ show last night, and he looked like he was going to a funeral. I can’t find the video right now, but he told Hayes that he wouldn’t vote for Trump even if he were the only one on the ballot. Other serious conservatives are saying they’ll be too busy to attend the Republican Convention in July, including candidates running downticket. We heard yesterday that George W. Bush and George H.W. Bush have no plans to endorse Trump. It’s likely Jeb won’t be supporting him either.

Here’s Michael Cohen at The Boston Globe: RIP GOP.

Indeed, the biggest near-term question for Republicans is: How bad will the damage be? How badly will Trump lose? How many seats will the GOP lose in the House and Senate and farther down the ballot in state legislature races?

But the bigger question — and it’s one that we may not know the answer to for months or years to come — is how will the Republican Party survive what’s happened to it over the past year?

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At one point, the Republican Party nominally stood on a platform of economic and social conservatism. At least that was the public face of the party. Today, with Trump at its helm, it’s a party of nativism, xenophobia, crudeness, and misogyny. Those elements were of course always present in the party — and are at the root of its modern political success. But they were generally hidden below the surface or utilized with dog whistles. With Trump, there is no mistaking the fact that what drives GOP voters is not conservative dogma, but rather resentment, anxiety, and fear, particularly of minorities, Muslims, and immigrants.

That post-2012 Republican Party autopsy that said the GOP must reach out to Hispanic voters if it wanted to win a national election again is dead and buried. Quite simply, the Republican Party cannot win national elections if it doesn’t find a way to broaden the party’s appeal. With Trump as the presidential nominee, that effort will be set back, perhaps a generation or more.

Even more searing than the electoral challenges, Trump has delivered a savage blow to the GOP’s conception of itself. Armed with a mere handful of endorsements from elected GOP officials, Trump has run a campaign aimed directly against the Republican establishment. And he beat the stuffing out of it. And by taking positions on everything from taxes and trade to transgender Americans and terrorism that run directly against decades of conservative orthodoxy, he’s left the Republican establishment with no clear ideological mooring. Is the GOP a party of small government conservatism or a party of nativism and white male resentment? For decades, Republicans tried to be both, and Trump has, with a single presidential campaign, exposed the fallacy that lay at the heart of the party — namely that its voters were only interested in conservative dogma insofar as it was married to those aforementioned feelings of resentment, anxiety, and fear. But when given a choice between dogma and dog whistle, they’ve chosen this year – overwhelmingly – to go with the latter.

We’ll just have to wait and see. It will likely be both interesting and horrifying.

I don’t want to spend much more time on Bernie Sanders, because he’s irrelevant now. Nevertheless, he’ll be with us at least until the end of the primaries, and that’s a good thing as long as he stops damaging the Democratic Party and its putative nominee. If he continues, it will keep Hillary in the news, and his supporters deserve the opportunity to vote for him.

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It appears that at least some efforts have begun to get Sanders to calm down and stop trying to elect Donald Trump. Yesterday Greg Sargent wrote about what some Democratic leaders have been telling him.

Top Democrats to Sanders: Don’t drop out. But tone it down.

…top Democrats I spoke with today don’t feel any particular sense of urgency about Sanders getting out of the race. However, they are gently urging Sanders to take into account just how much higher the stakes are, now that Trump is the nominee, as the Vermont Senator calibrates his approach to the final stretch of the Dem campaign.

Those closely following the delicate dance underway among the key players — the Clinton and Sanders campaigns; the White House; major progressive figures such as Elizabeth Warren — say there are several factors about Sanders that are worth keeping in mind. One is that Sanders is not the type of guy who responds to pressure. He has long been a bit of a loner figure in Congress and the Senate, they say, and does not mind being at odds with the Democratic establishment — indeed, he relishes that position, as we’ve seen by his year-long campaign against it.

At the same time, however, top Dems also believe Sanders has an unappreciated pragmatic streak that tends to surface after he has pushed the envelope as far as possible and gotten all he could in the process. For instance, Sanders pushed very aggressively to make the Affordable Care Act as much to his liking as possible, frustrating some involved in the bill’s progress, but in the end, he backed the ACA and advocated for it.

Sanders might do something similar again now. Having spent a year building a national constituency behind his unabashed economic progressivism and calls for reform to our rigged political system, which very well could have an impact beyond the Dem primaries, he could continue to engage in a spirited contest of ideas with Clinton, but without suggesting she lacks integrity, and without forcing a contested convention in the end.

I suppose anything is possible, but IMHO Hillary is doing the right thing by simply ignoring Bernie and focusing on defeating Trump in the Fall. I think we should follow her lead and just let him do whatever he’s going to do. His donations are dropping and even the media isn’t following him as much as before.

U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton waves after leading a discussion on gun violence prevention at the Wilson-Gray YMCA in Hartford, Connecticut, U.S., April 21, 2016. REUTERS/Adrees Latif

U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton waves after leading a discussion on gun violence prevention at the Wilson-Gray YMCA in Hartford, Connecticut, U.S., April 21, 2016. REUTERS/Adrees Latif

Meanwhile, Hillary is focusing on the general election.

Politico: Clinton plots swing-state ambush for Trump.

In recent days, the Clinton campaign has finalized a series of senior hires around the country, expanded the size of her central swing-state planning team in New York, and hundreds of thousands of dollars have been transferred to strategically important state parties from the Democratic National Committee. She’s also scheduled a series of public speeches and private meetings in states that will be crucial to her general election campaign.

Many of the moves had been in the works since early spring, when campaign officials began the process of hiring swing state operatives and more closely coordinating with state parties — the building blocks of the fall campaign’s field organizing infrastructure.

According to operatives and elected officials in eight battleground states, the switch flipped after Clinton’s 16-point win in New York last month — and Trump’s own romp there. In the days after that April 19 victory, some of Clinton’s state directors — who had previously operated only informally and without the campaign’s imprimatur — started meeting with local political leaders and planning the fall fight.

It’s all over but the grieving process for Bernie and his most fervent fans. Quite a few have already seen the writing on the wall and joined the Hillary bandwagon.

What stories are you following today?