Tuesday Reads

November Wind, John Roush

Good Afternoon!!

A brief personal note: I’m still staying with my mother in Indiana. I was ready to go home last week, but I came down with a virus that seems similar to what Dakinikat had recently. Then my mom had a fainting episode that may have been caused by dehydration (sound familiar?). I called 911, because she collapsed suddenly and I had no idea what happened. Luckily, I was there and was able to lower her to the floor gradually. Her vital signs turned out to be fine, but she hurt her leg because of her position on the floor. She’s better now, but today my cold is the worst it has been. So I’m not sure how coherent this post will be, and it’s obviously very late.

Like other Sky Dancers, I’ve been at my wits end lately with the way the media is attacking Hillary and letting Trump slide on his racism, sexism, homophobia, and xenophobia as well as the actual corruption around his so-called family foundation. The only redeeming factor on MSNBC yesterday was Lawrence O’Donnell’s epic rant about the media “losing it’s collective mind” over Hillary’s health. If you missed it, you must watch it as soon as you can.

Midwest Prairie

I’ve also come to the conclusion that The New York Times and the Associate Press are deplorable and irredeemable. Surprisingly, The Washington Post is currently doing the best job of holding Trump accountable and not “losing its mind” over every single thing Hillary says or does.

I want to begin with two articles I found somewhat calming.

Stuart Rothenberg at The Washington Post: Why Clinton’s narrow lead is bigger than it looks.

Big swings in polls get the big headlines because they imply big changes in a race. But over the past three-and-a-half decades, I’ve grown skeptical of big swings in polls at this late date, and I’ve seen only modest changes in voting behavior in presidential elections.

It isn’t that big swings can’t happen during a campaign. It’s that big swings are rare because there are so few swing voters in the electorate and all swing voters rarely move in the same direction.

A little more than a month ago Gallup found 38 percent of respondents saying they were political Independents, while only 31 percent said they were Democrats and 27 percent said they were Republicans.

But once respondents who “leaned” to one party or the other are allocated, only 11 percent of Americans called themselves true Independents (and some of them probably are closet partisans). This same distribution has been found by the Pew Research Center.

An NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey conducted after the Democratic convention (July 31-Aug. 3) showed 33 percent of respondents were independents, while 13 percent were true independents.

Dramatic events – such as a national party convention or a heavily watched televised debate  – can produce significant swings in the polls, and a bad economy, presidential scandal or unpopular war can produce substantial electoral swings, such as when normally Republican Indiana voted for Barack Obama in 2008.

But unless there is dramatic news, you should be very skeptical about any survey showing a dramatic shift in voters’ attitudes over a few weeks. Remember, not only are survey results subject to a margin of error, but 5 percent of surveys produce results outside that margin.

If you look at actual presidential election results, you may be surprised to see how little swing there is when all the votes are counted.

Prairie Storm, John Hulsey

McClatchy: Why the election map has a built-in, and growing, Democratic bias.

The presidential election map is undergoing a fundamental change, with shifts that will make it easier for Democrats to win not only in 2016 but also for years to come.

Driving the change are two demographic trends: The share of Hispanic and under-30 voters, who favor Democrats in big numbers, is growing significantly in states that in the last decade were decent bets to vote Republican.

“We’re moving in a direction where the demographic map makes it harder and harder for Republican candidates to win the presidency if current conditions continue,” said Mark Hugo Lopez, the director of Hispanic research at the nonpartisan Pew Research Center.

Colorado, Nevada and Pennsylvania illustrate how the demographic changes are giving Hillary Clinton an electoral advantage Democrats are unlikely to lose anytime soon. Clinton leads in Pennsylvania and Colorado, which for years were regarded as swing states, and she has a polling edge in Nevada.

Already moving toward the Democrats in the Obama era, Hispanics and younger voters are trending strongly Democratic in the Trump era.

Read more details the rest at the link.

As Lawrence O’Donnell pointed out last night, people who are already supporting Hillary are unlikely to be swayed by reports about her health, and Trump supporters are unlikely to switch sides because his racism and incompetence. They like him because they are racists too. As far as I’m concerned, anyone who fails to reject Donald Trump after the shocking things he has said over the last year is obviously supporting his racism.

Photo of abandoned one-room schoolhouse

Another bit of positive news from the WaPo: Middle class incomes had their fastest growth on record last year.

The incomes of typical Americans rose in 2015 by 5.2  percent, the first significant boost to middle-class pay since the end of the Great Recession and the fastest increase ever recorded by the federal government, the Census Bureau reported on Tuesday.

In addition, the poverty rate fell by 1.2 percentage points, the steepest decline since 1968. There were 43.1 million Americans in poverty on the year, 3.5 million fewer than in 2014.

The share of Americans who lack health insurance continued a years-long decline, falling 1.3 percentage points, to 9.1 percent.

The numbers, from the government’s annual report on income, poverty and health insurance, suggest the recovery from recession is finally beginning to lift here and the fortunes of large swaths of American workers and families. The Obama administration and its allies immediately hailed them in glowing terms.

“This exceeds the strong expectation that I already had,”  Jason Furman, the chair of Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, said in an interview, in which he called the income report the strongest ever from the Census Bureau. “The news here is the growth rates. I’ve read the last 21 reports, including this one. I have never seen one like this, in terms of, everything you look at is what you’d want to see or better.”

Trump keeps saying that America is in decline and everything about our country is terrible. But he’s just lying like he does about everything under the sun.

More Congresspeople are going on Cable news to defend Hillary. Here’s a great segment with Black Caucus Chairman Rep Gregory Meeks. Keep an eye on the facial expressions of the woman interviewer.

David Fahrenthold has a new piece today that demonstrates the Trump campaign’s confusion about how foundations and charities work: Donald J. Trump Foundation is Trump’s money, his campaign manager says. No.

Donald Trump’s campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, was asked on CNN this morning to provide evidence to prove Trump’s claim that he has given generously to charity.

She didn’t.

In the process, Conway also seemed to be unaware of a key fact about Trump’s personal charity, the Donald J. Trump Foundation.

Which is: The Trump Foundation’s money doesn’t actually come from Trump’s own pocket.

“Donald Trump has been incredibly generous over the course of his life,” Conway told CNN’s Alisyn Camerota.

“With his own money?” Camerota asked.

“With his own money, and his foundation’s money — which is his money,” Conway replied.

Platte Valley Summer, by Dale NIchols

Wow. If you’ve been following Fahrenthold’s research, you know how completely wrong that is. Please go read the whole thing.

Here’s a strange suggestion that can’t be ignored because of the person who made it. Again from the WaPo: The man who discovered CTE thinks Hillary Clinton may have been poisoned.

Bennet Omalu, the forensic pathologist who has made the NFL so uncomfortable with his discovery of chronic traumatic encephalopathy in the brains of deceased players, suggests that Hillary Clinton’s campaign be checked for possible poisons after her collapse Sunday in New York.

Omalu, whose story was famously told in the movie “Concussion,” made the suggestion on Twitter, writing that he advised campaign officials to “perform toxicologic analysis of Ms. Clinton’s blood.”

Omalu suggests that with the Russian interference in the 2016 election this is something to be concerned about.

I doubt if it’s true, but what’s the harm in checking it out? We’ve seen some unbelievable things happening this year.

That will have to do it for me today. I may add more links in the comment thread. 

Tuesday Reads: Hillary Clinton Coughed and Other News

Good Afternoon!!

The big news yesterday was that Hillary Clinton coughed. I searched several times during the day to find any reporting on the contents of the speeches she gave or her question and answer session with the press on her plane. There was nothing. Articles and tweets by reporters following Clinton focused only on two “coughing fits” and the fact that the press was invited to fly with her on her new campaign plane. By late last night, there were a few reports about the “press conference.”

I’ve finally come to the conclusion that most of members of the DC media only care about their own needs and desires and could not possibly care less about give informing voters. But some of them have apparently decided to call what Hillary did yesterday a “press conference,” even though they still refuse to acknowledge the press conference she gave to African American and Latino news media in August. But others say it wasn’t a real “press conference.”

Callum Borchers at the WaPo: Hillary Clinton’s news conference drought is finally over. Or is it?

Hillary Clinton took questions from reporters aboard her campaign plane Monday, but seemingly more interesting than what she said is what to call the session in which she said it. Was it a news conference or something else — perhaps merely a “gaggle” or an “avail”?

Under different circumstances, this would be a silly, semantic argument, but the Democratic presidential candidate’s lack of news conferences has become a campaign issue, with journalists complaining that she has not held one since last year, and Donald Trump’s team attempting to brand her as “Hiding Hillary.”

Click on the link to find out which “journalists” are still unsatisfied. But what did Clinton talk about? It was not easy to find out. One thing that was reported was that she expressed concern about Russian attempts to hack our presidential election. Reuters (via Newsweek):

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton on Monday expressed concern about “credible reports” of Russian interference in the U.S. election and accused Donald Trump of being fixated on dictators including Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

Taking questions from reporters for more than 20 minutes on her campaign plane, Clinton said both Democrats and Republicans should be concerned about Russia’s behaviour.

“The fact that our intelligence professionals are now studying this and taking it seriously raises some grave questions about potential Russian interference with our electoral process,” Clinton said.

“We are facing a very serious concern. We’ve never had a foreign adversarial power be already involved in our electoral process…. We’ve never had the nominee of one of our major parties urging the Russians to hack more,” she said.

Here’s the in-depth report from the WaPo that Hillary was referring to: U.S. investigating potential covert Russian plan to disrupt November elections.

U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies are investigating what they see as a broad covert Russian operation in the United States to sow public distrust in the upcoming presidential election and in U.S. political institutions, intelligence and congressional officials said.

The aim is to understand the scope and intent of the Russian campaign, which incorporates ­cyber-tools to hack systems used in the political process, enhancing Russia’s ability to spread disinformation.

The effort to better understand Russia’s covert influence operations is being coordinated by James R. Clapper Jr., the director of national intelligence. “This is something of concern for the DNI,” said Charles Allen, a former longtime CIA officer who has been briefed on some of these issues. “It is being addressed.”

A Russian influence operation in the United States “is something we’re looking very closely at,” said one senior intelligence official who, like others interviewed, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter. Officials also are examining potential disruptions to the election process, and the FBI has alerted state and local officials to potential cyberthreats.

The official cautioned that the intelligence community is not saying it has “definitive proof” of such tampering, or any Russian plans to do so. “But even the hint of something impacting the security of our election system would be of significant concern,” the official said. “It’s the key to our democracy, that people have confidence in the election system.”

The Kremlin’s intent may not be to sway the election in one direction or another, officials said, but to cause chaos and provide propaganda fodder to attack U.S. democracy-building policies around the world, particularly in the countries of the former Soviet Union.

There’s much more at the link–an important read.

Time Magazine has a bit more in-depth information on Clinton’s press availability as well as Trump’s.

Donald Trump said for the first time he will attend all three scheduled presidential debates, barring acts of God. He revealed he isn’t holding mock debate sessions—the traditional way nominees prepare for the primetime contests—and that he doesn’t have anyone playing Hillary Clinton to prepare him for the September 26 showdown.

Donald Trump said for the first time he will attend all three scheduled presidential debates, barring acts of God. He revealed he isn’t holding mock debate sessions—the traditional way nominees prepare for the primetime contests—and that he doesn’t have anyone playing Hillary Clinton to prepare him for the September 26 showdown.

Hillary Clinton said she understood classification standards when she entered the State Department, despite comments to the FBI staying she couldn’t identify a standard marking on one message found on her private email server. “The fact that I couldn’t remember certain meetings doesn’t affect the commitment I had to the treatment of classified material,” she said.

Trump wouldn’t call his long “Birtherism” crusade a mistake, and implied he believes Obama may not be born in the U.S., saying the only reason he doesn’t discuss it is that reporters would fixate on it. “Your whole thing will be about that,” he said.

Clinton expressed concern about the growing U.S. government consensus that the Russian government is seeking to influence the U.S. election by promoting the hacking of Democratic targets. “We’ve never had a foreign adversarial power be already involved in our electoral process,” she said.

Trump sidestepped questions about the fact that his foundation paid a penalty to the IRS for an improper political donation to Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi, a Republican and now a campaign supporter, who was investigating whether to bring suit against Trump University. “I never even spoke to her about it at all,” he said, contradicting comments by her spokesperson earlier this year. She ultimately did not sue the controversial Trump entity.

Clinton continued to support a no-fly zone in Syria, breaking with the Obama Administration, telling reporters, “I think we need leverage.”

Donald Trump is maintaining ambiguity about what he’d do with the the millions of people in the U.S. illegally who he is not prioritizing for deportation. He ruled out citizenship unless they leave the U.S., but, in a reversal from last week, suggested he’d be open to them remaining illegally or providing a path to legal status. “If they stay, they stay, you know,” Trump said, rejecting the notion that he was following Mitt Romney’s 2012 “self-deportation” plan. “Then were are going to make determination after our border is secure,” he said of legal status. “We are going to make that decision into the future. That decision will be made.”

OK, that was helpful, although the story wasn’t published until this morning. I wonder if there will be any follow-up on that birther question?

I have a bunch of other reads to share today, links only.

Eric Boehlert at Media Matters: Still Waiting For Newspaper Editorials Demanding The Trump Foundation Be Shut Down.

CNN: Poll: Nine weeks out, a near even race (not really)

NBC News: Clinton Holds Steady Against Trump as Campaign Enters Final Weeks: Poll

Greg Sargent at the WaPo: Yes, the race is tightening. But it’s still too soon to panic. Here’s why.

Dan Balz at the WaPo: A new 50-state poll shows exactly why Clinton holds the advantage over Trump.

WaPo: Poll: Redrawing the electoral map

CNN: After cursing Obama, Duterte expresses regret.

Time: Hillary Clinton: Donald Trump ‘Did Choke’ in Meeting with Mexican President.

Daniel Drezner at the WaPo: Why Hillary Clinton’s perceived corruption seems to echo louder than Donald Trump’s actual corruption.

Vanity Fair: FOX SETTLES WITH GRETCHEN CARLSON FOR $20 MILLION—AND OFFERS AN UNPRECEDENTED APOLOGY.

The Hill: Greta Van Susteren to leave Fox News.

Matthew Yglesias at Vox: Against transparency. Government officials’ email should be private, just like their phone calls.

Vox: Obamacare was supposed to make all birth control free. As a doctor, I see it’s not happening.

Two long reads:

New York Magazine: The Sandy Hook Hoax. Lenny Pozner used to believe in conspiracy theories. Until his son’s death became one, by Reeves Wiedeman.

New York Daily News: Peas in a pod: The long and twisted relationship between Donald Trump and Rudy Giuliani, by Wayne Barrett.

What else is happening? Please share your thoughts and links on any topic in the comment thread below.