Lazy Caturday Reads: Trump Focuses on Golf While His War Spins Out of Control.

Good Afternoon!!

A New Arrival, by Walter Osborne (Irish artist)

This post is focused on major developments in Trump’s war and his seeming lack of concern about them.

While the situation in the Middle East was spinning out of control, Trump was partying at the “midterm convention” in Dallas.  Today, as the Saudis are forced to shut down a vital oil pipeline, Trump is in Ireland to watch a golf tournament at his own property in Doonbeg.

In order to justify spending millions in taxpayer money for a pleasure trip, Trump met briefly with Irish politicians and addressed a group of business leaders and embassy employees at the U.S. embassy. Of course, he managed to embarrass himself (and us). And guess who accompanied Trump to the Emerald Isle? No, not Melania. Natalie Harp.

But first, the war. Attacks by the Houthis have led to the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s main pipeline for moving their oil.

Nick Robinson and Lauren Kent at CNN: ‘A f***-up of epic proportions’: Blame game begins after Iran-backed Houthis’ lightning advance down Red Sea coast.

The desperate pleas for air cover from Yemeni generals started coming mid-morning on Thursday. An advance by the Iran-backed Houthis toward Yemen’s strategic port city of Mocha was in full swing, and backup support from chief ally Saudi Arabia was nowhere in sight.

“The Houthis committed everything they had – waves upon waves of fighters … along with their available ballistic missiles and weapons,” a senior Yemeni source attached to their military forces told CNN. The source said he contacted the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) and was assured the US was “watching the situation closely and that Saudi air support was coming.”

“But the air support never came,” the source said. “And Mocha has now fallen.”

Hours later, on Friday, the Houthis captured another key coastal asset, Perim Island, at the mouth of the Red Sea. The island splits the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in two, giving Tehran de facto control over another key shipping route.

The Houthis’ rapid advance amounts to an extraordinary 36 hours in a conflict that had been largely on ice for years. But the kindling for renewed fighting had been laid for months amid the conflict between the United States and Iran, as Tehran seeks to use oil prices – and their impact on the global economy – as leverage.

Now, Yemen and the Red Sea have the potential to become a true second front in the Iran war.

A bit more detail:

Iran’s effective control of the Strait of Hormuz plus its tightening grip on the Bab al-Mandeb Strait threatens to push oil prices even higher, weeks before November’s midterm elections in the United States.

Young Woman with Cats, by Lovis Corinth (German artist)

While the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the gateway to the Suez Canal shipping route, is less critical to global energy markets than Hormuz, it still carries essential goods worldwide, including millions of barrels of oil every day. The strait has become increasingly important since the start of the Iran war, as Saudi Arabia has re-routed some exports through the waterway to bypass Hormuz.

“(The Houthis) don’t need to use advanced weapons to close Bab al-Mandeb. They can just use a cannon on a car,” said Amr Al-Bidh, the top official of Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council (STC). The STC has fought both the Houthis and Saudi-backed forces in the past, and wants an independent state in the south.

“It’s a leverage that they have without using advanced weapons,” Al-Bidh told CNN in an interview. “And they will keep it.”

It wasn’t just Yemen begging Trump for assistance. He also got calls from Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman. Barak Ravis at Axios: MBS urged Trump to strike Houthis amid Red Sea threat.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) called President Trump twice Thursday, urging him to launch strikes against the Houthis as the Iran-backed group closed in on a vital Red Sea chokepoint, two U.S. officials told Axios.

• Trump declined, and U.S. officials stressed the administration has no plans to intervene directly against the Houthis for now.

Why it matters: Oil prices surged Thursday as the Houthis seized a strategic coastal city in Yemen, pushing them closer to the Bab al-Mandab Strait — a vital artery for global trade and Saudi oil exports.

• With Iran already disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Houthi control of Bab al-Mandab could give Tehran a powerful new point of leverage over the U.S. and its Gulf allies.

The latest: Reuters reported Friday morning that the Houthis had taken control of a key island in the strait.

• They also reported that smoke was seen over the key east-west Saudi oil pipeline, though the source was not clear.

Driving the news: The U.S. is concerned about the rapidly escalating fight in Yemen and is stepping up support for Saudi Arabia while trying to avoid direct military involvement.

Adm. Brad Cooper, the commander of U.S. Central Command, traveled to Saudi Arabia on Thursday for urgent coordination meetings, two sources with knowledge of the matter said.

I’m not a military expert; but from what I’m reading, Trump’s war is rapidly getting bigger and more uncontrollable.

Oliver Holmes at The Guardian: Nearly 50,000 Yemeni civilians flee as Houthis advance along Red Sea coast.

Nearly 50,000 people have fled a sudden advance by Houthi forces in western Yemen, with entire villages emptied and families trapped near frontline fighting with depleting food supplies, according to aid workers.

Nora Heysen (Australian, 1911-2003) – A Boy with his cat

Civilians in the Middle East’s poorest country have found themselves victims of a global struggle for control over one of the most important shipping routes in the world, which threatens to turn Yemen’s on-off conflict into a forever war.

In a lightning advance this week, the Iran-backed Houthi militants have seized a string of towns along the Red Sea coast from forces aligned with the US- and Saudi-backed Yemeni government. Hundreds of people are reported to have been killed. Many fear a return to the full-scale civil war that killed 150,000 and brought many others to the brink of famine….

The UN International Organization for Migration (IOM) said on Friday that 46,000 people had been displaced across the governates of Taiz and Hodeidah, where steep verdant mountain ridges give way to arid coastal plains. For many families, this was their second or even third time they had been forced out of their homes.

A significant number of people were observed to be leaving the city with their belongings. Fighting has cut key roads, while phone lines are down in some areas. “The scale of displacement is increasing rapidly,” said Joe Lowry, IOM’s Middle East and north Africa spokesperson in Cairo.

The Saudis have shut down a pipeline after an attack that originated in Iraq.

Freddie Clayton at NBC News: Saudi Arabia’s shutdown of key pipeline limits oil flow as Yemen hits back against Houthis.

Saudi Arabia has closed a critical oil pipeline after it was struck by drones launched from Iraq, with the latest squeeze reverberating through the region Saturday as attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels threatened to deepen the world’s energy crisis.

The 745-mile pipeline had helped Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, bypass the blocked Strait of Hormuz, through which some 20% of the world’s oil used to pass before the U.S. and Israel waged war on Iran in late February.

The Saudi Energy Ministry confirmed the shutdown of the East-West pipeline on Friday, adding that drone attacks had resulted in a number of injuries and that its teams were “taking the necessary measures to secure the pipeline and assess its safety.”

By Zoya Scholis

Saudi Arabia said that, following a request from Iraq’s prime minister, it would not retaliate for now but reserves the right to take all necessary measures to protect its sovereignty, security and critical facilities, according to a Saudi Foreign Ministry statement.

An Iraqi military commander was dismissed early on Saturday after investigations confirmed the latest drone attacks targeting Saudi Arabia originated from Iraq, according to a statement by Iraq‘s prime minister’s office. An umbrella group of Iran-backed militias in Iraq denied its involvement.

Iraq also closed two key border crossings with Iran, Iraq’s state-run news agency reported Saturday.

Kuwait, a U.S. ally in the region, warned that the pipeline attack was a “dangerous escalation that undermines the security and stability of the region” while Bahrain stressed Saudi Arabia’s right to “take all necessary measures to protect its sovereignty.”

Meanwhile, In Ireland Trump seemed unconcerned:

U.S. President Donald Trump said on ⁠Saturday that everything would “work out just ⁠fine” when asked about the region on a visit to Ireland. He also said, without providing evidence, that Iran was “probably” behind the pipeline attack.

The pipeline strikes came as rebel Houthi forces in Yemen captured Perim, an island in the middle of the vital Bab el Mandeb Strait that serves as a gateway to the Red Sea trade route that links Europe and Asia.

Trump also said the Iran War would most likely end after the midterm elections.

Azhar Sukri at CNBC: Trump sees Iran war ending soon after mid-term elections, predicts oil prices will then fall sharply.

The war in Iran will likely end soon after November’s mid-term elections, President Donald Trump said Saturday, and predicted that energy prices would fall sharply once that happens.

“I think very soon, I think it’ll be right after the mid-terms, actually,” Trump said on a trip to Ireland when asked by reporters when the Iran war is likely to end. “I would say shortly, and oil will come tumbling down when that happens,”

Hans Heyerdahl, Girl with a Cat (Norwegian artist)

Oil prices retreated on Friday, but notched sharp weekly gains after soaring above $100 a barrel for the first time in months.

Brent crude oil futures, the global benchmark, settled down 2.8% at $104.61 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was down 2.4% to settle at $100.05 per barrel. On Thursday, Brent crude peaked at around $108 a barrel, while WTI hit more than $104.

The price decline came after Iranian state media said Tehran will meet with Gulf states in Oman to discuss the Strait of Hormuz, indicating some diplomacy is taking place despite a week of sharp escalation.

MS NOW quoted a senior government official and a Gulf diplomat as saying that Iranian and Gulf officials will meet in Oman’s capital, Muscat, on Monday to sign an agreement that will establish an Iran-Oman shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz.

But Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country will not surrender, adding that it has resisted aggression from the U.S. and Israel.

“Iran has successfully stood against Israel and the U.S.,” Pezeshkian said late Friday as he addressed a gathering of Indian religious leaders in New Delhi. “Since we are seeking truth and justice, we will not yield in front of bullying arrogance.”

One more on the war and the oil situation from Lisa Friedman, Jenny Gross, and Rebecca F. Elliott at The New York Times (gift link): Gulf Tankers Are Running Out of Ways to Export Oil: ‘These Waters Aren’t Safe.’

The world’s most valuable energy corridors are pinching shut.

On Friday, Houthi militants backed by Iran expanded their control of the Red Sea, threatening a critical route for Persian Gulf crude. That left the region with few alternatives, since shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — once the world’s primary oil transit point — remains significantly constrained and far below what it was before the war.

A Girl with a Black Cat by the Dutch artist Frida Holleman (1908–1999)

And oil exports from Saudi Arabia, long the most important producer in the Middle East, plunged last month to their lowest point in at least 13 years.

The U.S. Navy has been able to keep oil flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz on sea paths close to the coast of Oman, the opposite side from Iran. But that has required an extensive and dangerous operation.

For shipping companies, the once routine operation of navigating the strait has become a high-risk endeavor. At least 23 ships were hit in the waterway near Oman in July and August. Since the war began at the end of February, at least 22 sailors have been killed in the Middle East.

“These waters aren’t safe,” said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, an analyst at Windward, a maritime intelligence company.

As the war in Iran nears its seventh month, it appears to be spinning out of control, analysts said. With no diplomatic end in sight, the Middle East, the epicenter of energy production, is facing its most severe supply crisis in decades.

The Trump administration “has been using a variety of tools very effectively to keep the oil price and the gasoline price at bay,” said Amos Hochstein, who served as a foreign affairs and energy adviser in the Biden administration. But now, he said, fewer options are available to President Trump and his team. “They’re “stuck.”

You can use the gift link to read the rest if you’re interested.

Trump was in Dublin this morning to justify spending taxpayer money on his golf trip. Natalie Harp was was there, lined up with the Trump family on the receiving line.

Natalie Harp on the receiving line in Dublin.

The AP via NPR: Trump meets Ireland’s leaders before heading to his golf club in Doonbeg.

U.S. President Donald Trump held talks Saturday in Dublin with his Irish counterpart Catherine Connolly during a weekend visit that’s more about a major golf tournament hosted on a course he owns on the country’s Atlantic coast. He also met with Ireland’s Prime Minister Micheál Martin.

Trump will address the U.S. and Irish business leaders at the U.S. ambassador’s official residence in Dublin before traveling to his oceanfront golf club in Doonbeg, on the other side of the country, to watch the Irish Open.

Connolly is a left-wing politician who was among those who protested when Trump visited Ireland in 2019 during his first term in office. She is now Ireland’s elected, largely ceremonial head of state. A supporter of the Palestinian cause, she in the past has criticized U.S. policy in the Middle East and called Trump a “bully.”