US Economic Malaise
Posted: February 8, 2011 Filed under: Economic Develpment, Global Financial Crisis, U.S. Economy, We are so F'd | Tags: economic outlook 2011, joseph stiglitz, Nouriel Roubini 15 Comments
I happened across the latest outlook for the global economy by Dr. Doom–Nouriel Roubini–over at Project Syndicate. We must share the same depressed muse. His outlook is very similar to mine although he’s crunching numbers in computer models that I can only dream about. It’s also a similar outlook to what Joseph Stiglitz indicated while in Davos. You will not need sunglasses while facing the future if you’re in Europe or North America. This will most likely be the decade of developing nations. I don’t have the sophisticated programs available to Roubini but his forecasts seem reasonable.
The outlook for the global economy in 2011 is, partly, for a persistence of the trends established in 2010. These are: an anemic, below-trend, U-shaped recovery in advanced economies, as firms and households continue to repair their balance sheets; a stronger, V-shaped recovery in emerging-market countries, owing to stronger macroeconomic, financial, and policy fundamentals. That adds up to close to 4% annual growth for the global economy, with advanced economies growing at around 2% and emerging-market countries growing at about 6%.
The word anemic is never one you want to see when talking economic forecasts. Roubini does identify a few possible black swan events related to things like the deterioration of the Spanish economy that could make anemic sound like a good thing. His comments on the US economy indicate more of the same. None of the same is pleasant.
The United States represents another downside risk for global growth. In 2011, the US faces a likely double dip in the housing market, high unemployment and weak job creation, a persistent credit crunch, gaping budgetary holes at the state and local level, and steeper borrowing costs as a result of the federal government’s lack of fiscal consolidation. Moreover, credit growth on both sides of the Atlantic will be restrained, as many financial institutions in the US and Europe maintain a risk-averse stance toward lending.
There’s some indication of our potential black swans in that paragraph. Every economist is attuned to the solvency problems in states like Illinois, New Jersey, and California. There is also no faith in the federal government’s ability to bail out any one but political donors. The only hope I have for the situation is that it’s an election year and those do tend to be important states electorally for presidential wannabes.
The other trends that worry me are the trends in oil and food prices which could mean that huge countries like China may have to readjust their plans with their sovereign wealth funds. Countries that import a lot of these items are going to be in for hefty bills. China is already experience inflation and has upped its interest rates. Roubini is watching for further signs that they recognize the potential problem. He also believes these tensions will further fuel currency tensions.
Roubini actually sees some upside risks and believes that we will slowly pull out of things. He believes that all sectors are still engaging in balance sheet repair with the exception of the US government. This is especially significant for the potential for jobs creation. If corporations are lean and mean and things do improve, this could create some much needed labor demand.
Joseph Stiglitz wrote a column for the UK Guardian after his Davos trip for the World Economic Forum. He may actually need to take the Dr Doom title from Robini. He focused on some systemic things that you might find interesting. Once again, we see an evaluation of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). This is something that should’ve happened years ago. He also mentions some skepticism of the monetarist (aka Milton Friedman) positions of central banks on inflation.
But this time, as business leaders shared their experiences, one could almost feel the clouds darkening. The spirit was captured by one speaker who suggested that we had gone from “boom and bust” to “boom and Armageddon”. The emerging consensus was that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast for 2009, issued as the meeting convened, of global stagnation – the lowest growth in the post-war period – was optimistic. The only upbeat note was struck by someone who remarked that Davos consensus forecasts are almost always wrong, so perhaps this time it would prove excessively pessimistic.
Equally striking was the loss of faith in markets. In a widely attended brainstorming session at which participants were asked what single failure accounted for the crisis, there was a resounding answer: the belief that markets were self-correcting.
The so-called “efficient markets” model, which holds that prices fully and efficiently reflect all available information, also came in for a trashing. So did inflation targeting: the excessive focus on inflation had diverted attention from the more fundamental question of financial stability. Central bankers’ belief that controlling inflation was necessary and almost sufficient for growth and prosperity had never been based on sound economic theory; now, the crisis provided further scepticism.
Suez Canal Pipeline Attacked
Posted: February 5, 2011 Filed under: Egypt, Foreign Affairs, Israel, Jordan, U.S. Economy, U.S. Politics | Tags: Egypt, israel, Jordan, sabatage, Suez Canal 29 CommentsUnknown attackers have blown up a pipeline that runs through El-Arish area of Egypt’s north Sinai area and supplies gas to Jordan and Israel, according to Egypt’s state television.
[….]
The explosive material was placed inside or adjacent to the control station of the gas supply line. There were no immediate reports of any casualties as a result of the blast.
“Saboteurs took advantage of the security situation and blew up the gas pipeline,” a state television correspondent reported, saying there was a big explosion.
State TV quoted an official as saying that the “situation is very dangerous and explosions were continuing from one spot to another” along the pipeline.
Forbes reports that Egypt has been forced to cut off gas supplies to Israel and Jordan.
There were conflicting reports out of Egypt as to the cause of the explosion, with the state-run Middle East News Agency saying the work was done by “subversive elements.” Oil Minister Samah Fahmy reportedly said it could take up to two weeks to repair the damage.
The pipeline is the third most strategically important piece of energy infrastructure in Egypt after the Suez Canal and the Sumed Pipeline. But it is the most important one to Israel, delivering 40% of Israeli natural gas supplies. The Israeli government said this afternoon that it did not expect any interruption of electricity supplies as the country has gas in storage and can also switch to other fuels like oil and diesel. Israel started receiving gas from the pipeline in 2008.
Assuming for a moment that this was not an accident, it represents a serious escalation of the crisis in Egypt.
Jitters about the impact of the unrest on the economy of both Egypt and the region were not eased yesterday when an explosion ripped through a gas terminal in Egypt’s northern Sinai Peninsula, setting off a massive fire that was contained by shutting off the flow of gas to neighbouring Jordan and Israel. Supplies are expected to be hit for at least a week. While Israel has other sources of power, and Jordan is believed to have substantial reserves, the sense that Egypt’s fragility can reach beyond its borders will add to the anxieties.
Traders are worried that the unrest might spread to oil-producing countries in the region and even affect shipments through the Suez Canal. Egypt is not a major oil producer, but it controls the canal and a nearby pipeline. Together these carry about two million barrels of oil a day from the Middle East to customers in Europe and the United States. Several large Egyptian refineries near the canal have been the site of recent protests.
We can use this as a live blog to discuss the situation in Egypt. I’ll continue to add updates if I learn any more about the cause of the pipeline blast.
Normalizing Poverty
Posted: January 31, 2011 Filed under: poverty, U.S. Economy | Tags: homelessness, hunger, Poverty, unemployment 16 Comments
A very disturbing article from The Economist caught my eyes over the weekend. It seems like about as good of a time as any to share this with you. It’s one of those articles you probably won’t see in the US media because it basically decries the notion that we’re the exceptional nation of opportunity and chance and that all that politically motivated and packaged hope and change has really brought neither to most of us.
It’s about Sarasota, Florida which has the been named meanest city in America by the National Coalition for the Homeless. There are some amazing trends that we don’t hear too much about here. For example, do you know that “Arizona now has the second highest poverty rate in the nation, after Mississippi”? How about this? Poverty is growing fastest in suburbs and especially sunbelt suburbs. A third of America’s poor now live in suburban areas according to the article that cites Elizabeth Kneebone of the Brookings Institution.
Here are the poverty statistics for Sarasota which joins Bakersfield, California; Boise, Idaho; Greenville, South Carolina; Lakeland, Florida and Tucson, Arizona as having the fastest climbing poverty in the country.
THE statistics are worthy of Detroit or Newark: almost half the children in the local schools are from families poor enough to be eligible for free or cut-price lunches; a tenth of households qualify for food stamps; one in eight residents gets free meals from soup kitchens or food banks; perhaps one in 12 has suffered a recent spell of homelessness. Yet the spot in question is not a benighted rust-belt city, but Sarasota, Florida—a balmy, palm-studded resort town on the shores of the Gulf of Mexico.
The Sarasota-Bradenton metropolitan area, a two-county sprawl of condominiums, marinas and retirement homes, saw the proportion of people living below the poverty line rise by more between 2007 and 2009 than any other big city in America, from 9.2% to 13.7%, according to the Census Bureau.
The story is filled with tales of citizens surviving in a tent and shed city run by the Catholic Church called Pinellas Hope. The picture you see above shows one of the sheds and a resident. A small tent city that was supposed to be a six month temporary situation is booming.
Between 200 and 300 people live there at a time, large by shelter standards, but they are just a slice of Pinellas County’s overall homeless population, estimated at nearly 7,000.
Thousands of potential candidates are disqualified by a no-booze, no- drugs policy. Families with children aren’t allowed. Background checks seek to weed out sex offenders and those with violent pasts.
Even among those who do get in, dysfunction can run high.
Before background and sobriety checks improved, Tent City managers twice asked sheriff’s deputies to pose as residents to investigate drug dealing. Dozens were arrested.
Through April, deputies have been called to Tent City 102 times, though serious crimes like assault, drug dealing and grand theft have diminished noticeably over the past year.
Four out of 10 residents get kicked out, land in jail, or simply leave.
Who are American’s poor? What will happen as the US austerity program pushes more and more people over the edge? The official poverty rate in the US for 2009 was 14.5% . You can compare our country with other countries at the CIA World Factbook. The countries with the worst poverty statistics are on the Continent of Africa. For example, Cameroon has a 48% poverty level. Canada’s poverty rate is just under 11% as is the poverty rate in Germany.
More information on poverty can be found at the National Poverty Center at the University of Michigan. The 2009 poverty threshold for a family of four was $ 21,756. For a single person under 65 it was $ 11,161.
The poverty rate for all persons masks considerable variation between racial/ethnic subgroups. Poverty rates for blacks and Hispanics greatly exceed the national average. In 2009, 25.8 percent of blacks and 25.3 percent of Hispanics were poor, compared to 9.4 percent of non-Hispanic whites and 12.5 percent of Asians.
Poverty rates are highest for families headed by single women, particularly if they are black or Hispanic. In 2009, 29.9 percent of households headed by single women were poor, while 16.9 percent of households headed by single men and 5.8 percent of married-couple households lived in poverty.
There are also differences between native-born and foreign-born residents. In 2009, 19.0 percent of foreign-born residents lived in poverty, compared to 13.7 percent of residents born in the United States. Foreign-born, non-citizens had an even higher incidence of poverty, at a rate of 25.1 percent.
I think that it’s important we put these numbers out there. The President and Congress are clearly putting ‘entitlements’ on the table. Any changes will effect these numbers. There is also a link between unemployment and Poverty. There is no indication that there are any programs or there is a will in this country to deal with the high unemployment rate that we are now experiencing. Forecasted GDP growth is not high enough to bring it down any time soon. This article is actually a year old. See much difference now?
The response of state and local governments to this social catastrophe is drastic reductions in social services and job cuts, under conditions where the Obama administration refuses to provide emergency aid to help cover budget deficits.
The total deficit of the states from 2009 to 2012 is now estimated at $460 billion, a figure that is likely to grow as more state capitals adjust estimates for rapidly declining tax revenue.
”Anything and everything’s on the table,” said Todd Haggerty, a policy associate with the National Conference of State Legislators. States have “cut the fat, cut the muscle and are now cutting bone. The easy decisions have already been made.”
The fiscal situation confronting the states is expected to deteriorate sharply next year when funds from the federal economic stimulus package, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, are exhausted.
Like the states, the federal government faces a fiscal catastrophe, with cumulative US budget deficits expected to top $10 trillion by the end of the new decade, according to the Obama administration’s rather optimistic forecast. Cuts in spending must be put in place, in part, to convince creditors, especially China, that the US “can get its finances back in order,” the Wall Street Journal wrote Monday in a feature on the annual gathering of the American Economic Association.
The response of the Obama administration is to call for an unprecedented program of fiscal austerity and sharp cuts in social spending, to be announced in his State of the Union address early next month and outlined in the new federal budget proposal shortly thereafter. Obama’s repeated insistence on the need for Americans to reduce their consumption—even as trillions more are allocated for the banks and for ever-expanding wars in Central Asia and the Middle East—is code language for a deepening of the assault on the working class.
The discussion of possible deficit reduction measures includes regressive taxes such as a national sales tax and sweeping cuts in entitlement programs on which millions of people rely, such as Medicare and Social Security.
If this continues, we will see civil unrest. I am reminded of the tweet from Robert Reich posted by Zaladonis yesterday and another one that I had read earlier.
30 Jan
RBReich Robert Reich 3.5% ec growth pitiful. We’re in so deep a hole that we need twice that to get jobs back. Don’t believe the Wall St cheerleaders.
30 JanRBReich Robert Reich
If you think revolts in Tunis, Egypt, and Yemen are big, wait for coming food and energy shortages around world. US shld take lead now.
Monday Reads
Posted: January 31, 2011 Filed under: Corporate Crime, Egypt, Foreign Affairs, Global Financial Crisis, income inequality, John Birch Society in Charge, morning reads, SOTU, The Bonus Class, The Great Recession, U.S. Economy, U.S. Politics | Tags: Bennett, Corporate Welfare Recipients Koch brothers, GDP growth, Hatch, Innovation, median incomes flat, Public cost cutting leads to death, Snowe, Tea party targets Lugar, The Great Stagnation, Uncloak the Koch brothers 75 CommentsI thought I’d start the day off with some new topics given we’ve spent the weekend following world events unfold. One of the major complaints of the Egyptian people is their high unemployment rate. It’s basically the same as ours. They also have seen rising food and energy prices. Our overall price inflation is well under control at the moment, but there are world events that have made food and energy prices more volatile than usual. The Egyptians have experienced GDP growth rates that are twice ours, but like our country, the income improvements have advantaged the very few instead of the many for many of the same reasons. One of the guys that skedaddled on that airplane was the big telecom industry captain. We have many huge corporations–like GE–that exist on no bid government contracts that they never lose, even when they’ve been found endlessly maleficent.
I thought I’d start with Tyler Cohen who has been riffing on themes relevant to his for sell on line pamphlet The Great Stagnation. His NYT article this weekend buried one of the themes of the SOTU. It’s called ‘Innovation Is Doing Little for Incomes’.
The income numbers for Americans reflect this slowdown in growth. From 1947 to 1973 — a period of just 26 years — inflation-adjusted median income in the United States more than doubled. But in the 31 years from 1973 to 2004, it rose only 22 percent. And, over the last decade, it actually declined.
Most well-off countries have experienced income growth slowdowns since the early 1970s, so it would seem that a single cause is transcending national borders: the reaching of a technological plateau. The numbers suggest that for almost 40 years, we’ve had near-universal dissemination of the major innovations stemming from the Industrial Revolution, many of which combined efficient machines with potent fossil fuels. Today, no huge improvement for the automobile or airplane is in sight, and the major struggle is to limit their pollution, not to vastly improve their capabilities.
Although America produces plenty of innovations, most are not geared toward significantly raising the average standard of living. It seems that we are coming up with ideas that benefit relatively small numbers of people, compared with the broad-based advances of earlier decades, when the modern world was put into place. If pre-1973 growth rates had continued, for example, median family income in the United States would now be more than $90,000, as opposed to its current range of around $50,000.
You can find more discussion at Marginal Revolution. The Economist weighed in on the booklet tonight.
improvements in rich world living standards may, for the moment at least, come from the capture of policy low-hanging fruit. In other words, the rich world should focus on getting rid of blatantly foolish and costly policies. Moving from taxes on goods, like income, to bads, like traffic congestion, would be a good start. Not spending so much on medical treatments with dubious benefits would be another possibility. Cutting out policy foolishness like agriculture subsidies and the mortgage-interest deduction would be another positive step. Amid rapid growth, really silly policy choices could be tolerated, since surpluses continued to rise. As growth rates slow, the failure to cut out bad policies will mean continued stagnation or declines in living standards for some.And it’s a little amusing to focus on the implications of the spread of cheap-to-free internet amusement. As Mr Cowen notes, the availability of good, free internet entertainment has allowed a lot of people hit hard by falling incomes or recession-induced joblessness to maintain relatively high levels of utility (though this available substitute has also made it easier to cut down on physical consumption, with nasty effects on GDP).
Paul Krugman agrees here. Robert Reich struck a similar chord on stalled incomes in his response to the SOTU. Reich focuses on one of our topics. That would be the important list of what the president didn’t say.
What the President should have done is talk frankly about the central structural flaw in the U.S. economy – the dwindling share of its gains going to the vast middle class, and the almost unprecedented concentration of income and wealth at top – in sharp contrast to the Eisenhower and Kennedy years.
Although the economy is more than twice as large as it was thirty years ago, the median wage has barely budged. Most of the gains from growth have gone to the richest Americans, whose portion of total income soared from around 9 percent in the late 1970s to 23.5 percent in 2007. Americans kept spending anyway by using their homes as ATMs but the bursting of the housing bubble put an end to that – leaving them without enough purchasing power to reboot the economy. So the central challenge is put more money into the pockets of average Americans.
This narrative would be politically risky (opening Mr. Obama to the charge of being a “class warrior”) but at least honest. And it would allow him to connect the dots – explaining why his new health-care law is critical to reducing medical costs for most working families, why tax reform requires cutting taxes on the middle class while raising them on the rich, why the Bush tax cuts shouldn’t be extended for the wealthy, why deficit reduction must not sacrifice education and infrastructure (both important to rebuilding middle-class prosperity) and why any cuts in Social Security or Medicare must be on the backs of the wealthy rather than average working families.
I still can’t believe we have a President that doesn’t run a counter narrative to the Republican Voodoo economic fantasy. I guess it’s left to those of us in the blogosphere to hammer home traditional democratic values. So, speaking of some of the worst of the worst, there’s a movement afoot to UnCloak the Kochs. Those John Birch Society Billionaires that want to bring down social security have been taking up some virtual ink in left blogistan. Here’s something from the New York Observer: ‘7 Ways the Koch Bros. benefit from Corporate Welfare’.
Now that we’ve heard about their charitable giving, David’s 240-foot mega-yacht and role as patrons of the Tea Party movement, it’s time to ask a more serious question: How libertarian are they?
The short answer…not very.
Charles and David Koch, the secretive billionaire brothers who own Koch Industries, the largest private oil company in America, have spent millions bankrolling free-market think tanks and pro-business politicians in order, as David Koch has put it, “to minimize the role of government, to maximize the role of private economy and to maximize personal freedoms.” But a closer look at their dealings reveals that for the past 35 years the brothers have never shied away from using government subsidies to maximize their own profits, even while endeavoring to limit government spending on anything else.
These guys are a veritable bankroll for so-called think tanks that spout more tank than think. Some one should let them know that their businesses are hardly shining examples of a free market. These guys are card carrying members of the crony capitalist set.
In 1977, Charles Koch founded the Cato Institute, an influential libertarian think tank, with the aim of injecting free-market ideas into the mainstream. The Kochs would go on to establish and fund a vast network of overlapping think tanks, institutes, foundations, media outlets, and lobby groups that would vilify centralized government and promote laissez-faire capitalism as the only route to economic prosperity. The Mercatus Center, Americans for Prosperity, Reason Magazine, the Federalist Society and the Heritage Foundation are just a few of the right-wing organizations that run on Koch cash today.
David Dayen has a post up at FDL about protests organized to protest these bloated trust fund babies and their plutocratic friends. These guys are manufacturers of stupidity like climate change denial. Common Cause organized the protest.
After a litany of speakers – including Jim Hightower, Rick Jacobs of the Courage Campaign, and Common Cause President and former Illinois Congressman Bob Edgar, the entire group of protesters moved to the setup across the street from the resort. Police helicopters buzzed overhead. After a while, the police agreed to shut down Bob Hope Drive, and the protesters streamed across the street and directly in front of the resort, just a few inches away from the phalanx of riot cops. The usual protest chanting and raising of banners ensued. More cops were brought in, traipsing over the flower beds. And 25 protesters were taken away in a paddy wagon. The protests were generally peaceful, and the police professional.
The protesters generally decried the Koch Brothers’ influence over American democracy, in particular their use of the Citizens United ruling to spend corporate money in elections. Koch Industries’ funding of climate denialism and other conservative causes was on the minds of the protesters as well.
You can read some of the dirty deeds that pay others to do dirt cheap in the NYT article on the Tea Party targets. Here’s the list of who is in their ‘surveyor’ marks for the 2012 Senate elections. Evidently, Indiana Senator Richard Lugar is one of the guys they’re after. Here’s some more making their unclean, impure list.
In Maine, there is already one candidate running on a Tea Party platform against Senator Olympia J. Snowe. Supporters there are seeking others to run, declaring that they, too, will back the person they view as the strongest candidate to avoid splitting their vote. In Utah, the same people who ousted Senator Robert F. Bennett at the state’s Republican convention last spring are now looking at a challenge to Senator Orrin G. Hatch.
The early moves suggest that the pattern of the last elections, in which primaries were more fiercely contested than the general election in several states, may be repeated.
They also show how much the Tea Party has changed the definition of who qualifies as a conservative. While Ms. Snowe is widely considered a moderate Republican, Mr. Hatch is not. Mr. Lugar, similarly, defines himself as a conservative. He argues that he has consistently won praise from small-business groups, supported a balanced budget amendment and pushed for a reduction in farm subsidies and the closing of agricultural extension offices as part of an effort to reduce unnecessary spending — all initiatives that fall under the smaller government rubric of the Tea Party.
Guess that means there’s more bat shit crazy folks waiting in the wing to mangle and destroy American history and the constitution. Do you suppose we’ll see any more “I am not a witch” ads?
So, last week I posted something sent to me from BostonBoomer about the rise in violent attacks in prisons due to cost cutting measures and outsourcing to private firms. BB’s found another more horrible link. CNN reports the death of a correctional officer in Washington who had made a complaint to her union steward that she feared for her safety.
Jayme Biendl, 34, was discovered late Saturday night after workers at the Monroe Correctional Complex noticed her keys and radio were missing, according to a statement from the Washington State Department of Corrections. Staff at the prison immediately went to where she worked and found her unresponsive, it said.
Emergency responders declared Biendl dead at the scene shortly before 11 p.m. PT, the department said.
She had been strangled, according to Chad Lewis, a department spokesman.
So, it’s monday morning, I spent all weekend rewriting an article on Venture Capital. As long as you don’t have anything to say about that, because I’ve frankly reached my fill on the subject , I’d like to know …








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