Thursday Reads

Good Morning!!

hym01art1On Tuesday, I wrote about the sudden mainstreaming of the so-called “lab leak theory” of the origins of Covid-19 in China. Today David Leonhardt has an “explainer” of this sudden attention to this long-dismissed notion.

Suddenly, talk of the Wuhan lab-leak theory seems to be everywhere.

President Biden yesterday called on U.S. intelligence officials to “redouble their efforts” to determine the origin of Covid-19 and figure out whether the virus that causes it accidentally leaked from a Chinese laboratory. Major publications and social media have recently been filled with discussion of the subject.

The origin of the virus remains unclear. Many scientists have long believed that the most likely explanation is that it jumped from an animal to a person, possibly at a food market in Wuhan, China, in late 2019. Animal-to human transmission — known as zoonotic spillover — is a common origin story for viruses, including Ebola and some bird flus.But some scientists have pointed to another possibility: that it escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology. As in other laboratories, researchers there sometimes modify viruses, to understand and treat them.

“It is most likely that this is a virus that arose naturally, but we cannot exclude the possibility of some kind of a lab accident,” Dr. Francis Collins, the director of the National Institutes of Health, told senators yesterday.

Leonhardt writes–as I did on Tuesday–that the reason this is suddenly getting so much attention is because a number of scientists have recently argued that the lab leak theory should be investigated.

Among the reasons: Chinese officials have refused to allow an independent investigation into the lab and have failed to explain some inconsistencies in the animal-to-human hypothesis. Most of the first confirmed cases had no evident link to the food market.

But has anything really changed?

In some ways, not much has not changed. From the beginning, the virus’s origin has been unclear. All along, some scientists, politicians and journalists have argued that the lab-leak theory deserves consideration.

Almost 15 months ago, two Chinese researchers wrote a paper concluding that the virus “probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.” Alina Chan, a molecular biologist affiliated with Harvard and M.I.T., made similar arguments. David Ignatius and Josh Rogin, both Washington Post columnists, wrote about the possibility more than a year ago. Joe Biden, then a presidential candidate, didn’t mention the lab-leak theory in early 2020 but he did argue that the U.S. should “not be taking China’s word” for how the outbreak started.

But these voices were in the minority. The World Health Organization initially dismissed the lab-leak theory as implausible.

Read the rest at the link–I’ve probably quoted too much.

covid_19_-_the_right_way_ditikalayakashyapIf you read the comments on the Tuesday post, you know that Quixote, who is quite knowledgeable on this subject, vehemently argued against the lab leak theory. Quixote posted another comment yesterday that I didn’t see until this morning:

The virus isn’t engineered because you can tell by the RNA sequence. If it had been, the inserted bits will be obvious when you compare it to related viruses. Sort of like Frankenstein’s monster is visibly sewn together from parts that don’t go together.

The early cases don’t particularly center on the lab or on people associated with it. They’re outside Wuhan, inside Wuhan, at the abandoned mine / bat cave, at the captured animal food market, and so on. The pattern is what you’d see if a virus mutated to be able to infect people, but wasn’t very good at it yet, and had been moving through the population for a while. In the course of simmering through the population, the most successful virus would be the one that changed enough to infect people easily.

It had enough time to do that, and that was exactly the threat the Wuhan lab, and also CDC people there, were looking for. (Trump, by the way, cut funding for both of those because what the hell do we need to be paying people in China for.) The danger was noticed by Chinese doctors (one of whom soon died of the disease) who tried hard to alert the world. They were squelched by the government. If the CDC people had still been there, it would have been a lot harder to squelch.

So tl:dr; no evidence covid19 was an intentional bioweapon thing. Poor evidence that it could have unintentionally leaked. It’s a fact that the attempted coverup by the Chinese let the pandemic get going. If procedures at the lab need improving, they certainly should be.

The other things you mention about China are all true. (Tibet too. Never forget Tibet.) It’s been obvious for decades that China was going to abuse whatever power it could get. But that’s another whole train of thought.

As bad as they are, covid19 does not fit the lab leak story at all well. Both things can be true: they’re bad and covid was an incompetent accident made infinitely worse by self-serving dictators all over the world, including China.

I agree that there certainly is no evidence for the lab leak theory. The only reason I thought there could be something to it was that several people in the lab got sick with something that looked like Covid-19 and were hospitalized. I thought they could have gotten the virus from the cave samples–not that the virus was engineered in the lab–and that somehow the virus got into the population that way. But there is no way to ever know if this happened, as China would never cooperate with any investigation.

Now that Biden has ordered an investigation, we will likely hear more about this, but I can’t see how we’re ever going to know for sure how the virus originated. The crossover from animal to human explanation makes the most sense.

It’s also worth checking out this thread on Twitter by a China expert.

In other Covid-19 news, The New York Times reports that two studies have found that Immunity to the Coronavirus May Persist for Years.

Immunity to the coronavirus lasts at least a year, possibly a lifetime, improving over time especially after vaccination, according to two new studies. The findings may help put to rest lingering fears that protection against the virus will be short-lived.


19 Faces of Covid-19, by Suzon Lucore

Together, the studies suggest that most people who have recovered from Covid-19 and who were later immunized will not need boosters. Vaccinated people who were never infected most likely will need the shots, however, as will a minority who were infected but did not produce a robust immune response.

Both reports looked at people who had been exposed to the coronavirus about a year earlier. Cells that retain a memory of the virus persist in the bone marrow and may churn out antibodies whenever needed, according to one of the studies, published on Monday in the journal Nature.

The other study, posted online at BioRxiv, a site for biology research, found that these so-called memory B cells continue to mature and strengthen for at least 12 months after the initial infection.

“The papers are consistent with the growing body of literature that suggests that immunity elicited by infection and vaccination for SARS-CoV-2 appears to be long-lived,” said Scott Hensley, an immunologist at the University of Pennsylvania who was not involved in the research.

Read more at the NYT.

There was another mass shooting yesterday–so what else is new? 

It’s also not new that the perpetrator had a history of violence against women. Fox News: San Jose shooting leaves 9 dead, deceased suspect identified; victims shot in separate buildings.

The eight people initially killed by a gunman at a Northern California rail yard Wednesday morning were shot in two separate buildings before the suspected shooter took his own life, authorities said Wednesday. 

A ninth victim died in a hospital late Wednesday evening, authorities said.

The mass shooting epidemic, credit Dana Gornall

The mass shooting epidemic, credit Dana Gornall

Santa Clara Sheriff Laurie Smith expressed her grief for the families of the victims before praising the quick response of law enforcement officers who went into a Valley Transportation Authority building as the active shooting was happening. She said deputies and San Jose police officers were the first on the scene. 

The suspect was identified Wednesday as Samuel Cassidy, 57, who was a VTA employee, officials said. No motive is known for the shooting at this time.

An ex-girlfriend told the San Francisco Chronicle he was prone to alcohol-fueled mood swings and had been accused in a March 2009 court filing of rape and abuse. The documents were filed in response to a domestic violence restraining order that Cassidy had filed earlier that month. 

The former girlfriend alleged his mood swings worsened when he drank alcohol and that he played “several mind games which he seems to enjoy.” She listed several incidents of alleged sexual assault in which he would hold her arms and force his weight onto her. 

He would apologize and promised to never do it again afterward, the report said. 

(Emphasis added)

Cassidy’s ex-wife said he had threated workplace violence years ago. What we know about Sam Cassidy, the suspect in the San Jose VTA shooting.

The man who opened fire Wednesday at a rail yard in San Jose, killing nine other people and ending his own life, has been identified as 57-year-old Sam Cassidy. He was an employee of the Valley Transportation Authority, which provides bus, light rail and other transit services throughout Santa Clara County, authorities said.

RS31736_Photo-Jul-06-11-30-19-AM-qut-520x293Cassidy was identified as a maintenance worker at the Valley Transportation Authority….

According to The Associated Press, Cassidy had talked to his ex-wife about killing people at work more than a decade ago.

“I never believed him, and it never happened. Until now,” a tearful Cecilia Nelms told The Associated Press.

She said he used to come home from work resentful and angry over what he perceived as unfair assignments.

“He could dwell on things,” she said. The two were married for about 10 years until a 2005 divorce filing and she hadn’t been in touch with Cassidy for about 13 years, Nelms said.

I’m still perplexed and fascinated by the Q-Anon phenomenon. There a couple of stories about it today.

NBC News: Study finds nearly one-in-five Americans believe QAnon conspiracy theories.

Washington, we have a problem — politically, informationally and societally — when 15 percent of Americans agree with the QAnon statement that the U.S. government, media and financial worlds “are controlled by a group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles who run a global child sex trafficking operation.”

Or when 20 percent agree with this statement: “There is a storm coming soon that will sweep away the elites in power and restore the rightful leaders.”

Or when another 15 percent agree that “Because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country.”

These are the results of a PRRI-IFYC study that was conducted online March 8-30, but that was just released Thursday.

And the study finds that Republicans, those who trust far-right news outlets like OANN and Newsmax, and white evangelicals and Hispanic Protestants are all more likely to believe these statements than other Americans.

It’s hard to call something fringe when approximately one-in-five Americans believe these statements, especially one that true patriots “may have to resort to violence” to save the country.

Here’s the PRRI story: Understanding QAnon’s Connection to American Politics, Religion, and Media Consumption.

Three Components of the QAnon Conspiracy Movement

The far-right conspiracy theory movement known as QAnon emerged on the internet in late 2017 and gained traction throughout former president Donald Trump’s time in office. QAnon’s core theory revolves around Satan-worshipping pedophiles plotting against Trump and a coming “storm” that would clear out those evil forces, but the movement has also been described as a “big tent conspiracy theory” that involves a constantly evolving web of schemes about politicians, celebrities, bankers, and the media, as well as echoes of older movements within Christianity, such as Gnosticism.

e7d48eefa41a0d5dd2b2ae4f7062823421-QANON-COVER-NO-TYPE.rvertical.w1200To understand how this loosely connected belief system is influencing American politics, religion, and media, we fielded three questions, each containing a tenet of the QAnon conspiracy movement….

QAnon Beliefs and Partisanship

A nontrivial 15% of Americans agree with the sweeping QAnon allegation that “the government, media, and financial worlds in the U.S. are controlled by a group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles who run a global child sex trafficking operation,” while the vast majority of Americans (82%) disagree with this statement. Republicans (23%) are significantly more likely than independents (14%) and Democrats (8%) to agree that the government, media, and financial worlds in the U.S. are controlled by a group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles who run a global child sex trafficking operation.

Similarly, one in five Americans (20%) agree with the statement “There is a storm coming soon that will sweep away the elites in power and restore the rightful leaders,” while a majority (77%) disagree. Nearly three in ten Republicans (28%), compared to 18% of independents and 14% of Democrats, agree with this secondary QAnon conspiracy theory. Trends among demographic groups are similar to those of the core QAnon conspiracy theory.

Fifteen percent of Americans agree that “Because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country,” while the vast majority (85%) disagree. Republicans (28%) are twice as likely as independents (13%) and four times as likely as Democrats (7%) to agree that because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence.

Click the link to read the rest.

So…that’s a mixed bag of news for you. What else is happening? As always, this is an open thread.

31 Comments on “Thursday Reads”

  1. bostonboomer says:

    Have a great Thursday everyone!!

    • NW Luna says:

      Really good post today, BB.

    • Beata says:

      Hope you are well, BB!

      The Hoosier heat and humidity is here already. You are lucky to be away from it!

      • bostonboomer says:

        I’m doing okay, thanks for asking Beata. I’ve been diagnosed with rheumatoid arthritis. At least now I know why I’ve struggled with pain and stiffness for years. I have a good doctor and I think I’m making progress.

        How are you doing? It’s always so good to “see” you!

        • Beata says:

          I’m glad you are receiving good care for your RA, BB. My mother and grandmother both had RA so I am very familiar with the symptoms.

          I am okay. I spend a lot of time reading mysteries and listening to music.

        • NW Luna says:

          RA, all this time? No wonder you’ve felt the way you have. So glad you finally have a good doctor.

          • bostonboomer says:

            At first she thought I had polymyalgia rheumatica. That was more than a year ago. But I always test high on rheumatoid factor and sky high on sed rate. I was taking prednisone, but I kept having flare ups. Now I’m taking methotrexate and getting off prednisone. I’m hoping for the best.

  2. bostonboomer says:

    • bostonboomer says:

      From the article:

      When Sean Spicer was given prime billing at BookExpo America and Milo Yiannopoulos tried to publish a book with Simon & Schuster, I churned out 40 pages of text about free speech, white supremacy, and independent bookstores over the next several months, returning to it now and then as a salve or outlet for my frustration and then just… let it sit. I should have written something even earlier, after I had been in bookselling for ten years and watched Republicans and conservatives profiting—in terms of money and power—off the racist backlash to the Obama administration.

      Someone should have written something even earlier, as we watched the Bush administration start two endless wars, institute torture as an official American practice, and completely remake American society after the trauma of 9/11. Someone should have written something when Rush Limbaugh’s first book was published, before the reactionary racism of right-wing talk shows became fully mainstream.

      Like so many white, liberal Americans, I thought the gains made during the Civil Rights Movement were secure and that even if there was still a long way to go towards true social and racial justice, at least we weren’t sliding back. It’s embarrassing. Only the thinnest veils were thrown over the racism of the war on drugs, criminal justice reform, and welfare reform. Even after the Tea Party rose to power almost entirely through the white grievance and racism stoked by Fox News. Even after the Republican Party formally embraced this radical version of themselves. I did not see a resurgent threat and I did not see my complicity in that resurgence.

      At most, I was an active participant in a conversation with the Porter Square Books managers group about our relationship to books written by and/or supporting contemporary right-wing, conservative, and/or Republican authors, with some of us arguing that we needed to dramatically change that relationship, and others arguing that the current relationship is correct. Parts of that conversation will appear throughout this essay. But as the Trump administration, Fox News, and Republican politicians enacted more and more racist and destructive policies, we never reexamined that compromise. It just never seemed like the right time. There were always more pressing problems.

  3. bostonboomer says:

    • bostonboomer says:

    • NW Luna says:

      Jesus with an AR-15. Somehow this doesn’t fit with loving thy neighbor and helping the poor and the sick. The Rod of Iron Ministries would expel Jesus if he came around today.

  4. quixote says:

    That is excellent news about the year+ immunity to covid!

    Now if we could just get everybody to be homebodies for another few months and not give the virus any chances to come with new and worse variants, and if we could just get our global act together and vaccinate everybody, this could all turn into something we can read about in history books.

  5. renxkyoko says:

    Some of the American investigators who went to China had dealings with Wuhan Lab before , one way or another. It’s like the GOP investigating the Jan. 6 insurrection. I wouldn’t trust a country that allowed a company to manufacture toxic baby milk products until thousands died or got sick , to fake raw products such as rice , etc.,to allow Chinese fishermen ( 267 boats ) to fish as far as Galapagos Islands, and now they are eyeing Tabuttaha Reef in the Philippines, one of the most protected sites in the world. Google Tabuttaha Reef. Chinese fishermen have actually vaccuumed West Philippine Sea of giant clams, and then there was this incident where Philippine authorities arrested a Chinese fishing boat off the coast of Turtle Island, a Philippine territory, and found more than 300 turtles in the boat. They have no respect for the environment and endangered animals, as long as it will generate money for its citizens, not to mention the extremely low quality and the faking of well-known products brazenly, right and left. Even McDonald’s, KFC, and 7-11 weren’t spared. 7-11 becomes 9-11, Apple logo has a bigger bite. Already, more than a dozen Filipino fishermen died fishing on Philippine territory , sunk by Chinese patrol boats, alleging that these Filipino fishermen were fishing on Chinese territory, the South China Sea. Their Nine Dash line occupies up to Indonesia , and almost up to the shores of Palawan Islands in the Philippines, considered the most beautiful islands in the world. I am Filipino -American, born in the Philippines.

    • Enheduanna says:

      Oh hell. I have to admit, I’m afraid to buy seafood products from Asia. I hope that isn’t racist. My brother lived in Australia for 20 years and said you can’t trust the fish farms, etc.

      • NW Luna says:

        IMO if you have a rational reason for something, it’s not racist. There are environmental and infectious problems with fish farms regardless of location, but China is notorious for ignoring environmental problems with its industries.

  6. quixote says:

    Re QAnon Qooks, I saw a news report yesterday about how people wean themselves off.

    Basically similar to other reports on that topic: the accumulated weight of predictions failing and of having to believe too many impossible and contradictory things at once. The interesting part was that the hardest thing is dealing with the social loss of being part of an ingroup.

    I could see that. It seems to me it means that part of the solution in having lots of people play the White Hat version of the Emperor saying “Come to the Dark Side.” “Come to the Light Side. It’s more fun over here!”

    • bostonboomer says:

      People will resist letting go of cult beliefs, even in the face of cognitive dissonance. It makes sense that being cast out of the group is a big part of that.

    • NW Luna says:

      Yes, the threat of shunning often keeps people from breaking away or speaking out.

  7. NW Luna says:

    “He would apologize and promised to never do it again afterward”

  8. roofingbird says:

    It’s interesting, he apparently made a trip to the Philippines in 2016. The Las Vegas shooter did as well. Suggested tours for mass murderers?

  9. Beata says:

    Just checking in to say “Hello”!

    We are in the midst of The Great Cicada Invasion here. It happens every 17 years. Billions of cicadas everywhere. I’ve even found them in my hair! It’s really quite fascinating. Also a bit deafening.

    I’ve been listening to a lot of John Prine and John Hiatt lately. John Hiatt has put out a new version of his song “All the Lilacs in Ohio” with Jerry Douglas on the dobro. It’s lovely. I highly recommend it. Hiatt and Douglas are scheduled to perform here in the fall. We are hoping to go.

    Dylan is 80! He’s timeless though, is he not? I guess he’s doin’ fine. Would love to see him in concert again.

    • Beata says:

      Two more musicians to recommend:

      S.G. Goodman (“Red Bird Morning”) and Peter Oren (“Gnawed To The Bone”).

    • NW Luna says:

      Hello Beata! Good to see you. Wow, I had no idea the cicadas were so loud. Hadn’t heard of some of those musicians; thx for the recommendations.