Friday Reads: Death Spirals Real and Imagined

Good Afternoon!

It’s getting really difficult to find anything upbeat these days out there on the news front. Usually,there are several areas with persistent messes.  Today, things folks never thought we’d have to worry about are suddenly in play. They say Rome wasn’t built in a day nor did it fall in day. It seems like the US is on a downward spiral that rivals the speed of light or at least a hefty meteor.  Bets on how long we last at this rate?

Suggestions on how can we stop this?

Much of the destruction is going on inside the federal government while Kremlin Caligula puts on a show. We’ve learned that Trump and cronies are planting lobbyists and ideologues to cripple agencies.  The State Department appears to be one of the major functions of government that is in a death spiral. The Russian Connections between Trump and his cronies run deep. There’s no longer a need to connect the dots. It’s a four lane highway between Trump Tower with off ramps all over the place.
It appears that the Trump Syndicate may have been laundering money for Russian Oligarchs.  Here are some links to get caught up on the Russia fiasco.  Many of these are updates from stories that BB wrote about yesterday.

From CNN: “The super-secret division in charge of the Russia investigation“.

From the Palm Beach Post: “Trump in Palm Beach: Why did Russian pay so much for his mansion?”

From The American Interest: “The Curious World of Donald Trump’s Private Russian Connections”

By the late 1990s the actual chaos that resulted from Yeltsin’s warped policies had laid the foundations for a strong counterrevolution, including the rise of ex-KGB officer Putin and a massive outpouring of oligarchic flight capital that has continued virtually up to the present. For ordinary Russians, as noted, this was disastrous. But for many banks, private bankers, hedge funds, law firms, and accounting firms, for leading oil companies like ExxonMobil and BP, as well as for needy borrowers like the Trump Organization, the opportunity to feed on post-Soviet spoils was a godsend. This was vulture capitalism at its worst.

The nine-lived Trump, in particular, had just suffered a string of six successive bankruptcies. So the massive illicit outflows from Russia and oil-rich FSU members like Kazahkstan and Azerbaijan from the mid-1990s provided precisely the kind of undiscriminating investors that he needed. These outflows arrived at just the right time to fund several of Trump’s post-2000 high-risk real estate and casino ventures—most of which failed, since people doesn’t go to casinos that much anymore, people prefer to play and gamble online in different sites, for example here is a List of Betfred’s bonus codes for all their products. As Donald Trump, Jr., executive vice president of development and acquisitions for the Trump Organization, told the “Bridging U.S. and Emerging Markets Real Estate” conference in Manhattan in September 2008 (on the basis, he said, of his own “half dozen trips to Russia in 18 months”):

[I]n terms of high-end product influx into the United States, Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross-section of a lot of our assets; say in Dubai, and certainly with our project in SoHo and anywhere in New York. We see a lot of money pouring in from Russia.

All this helps to explain one of the most intriguing puzzles about Donald Trump’s long, turbulent business career: how he managed to keep financing it, despite a dismal track record of failed projects.4

According to the “official story,” this was simply due to a combination of brilliant deal-making, Trump’s gold-plated brand, and raw animal spirits—with $916 million of creative tax dodging as a kicker. But this official story is hokum. The truth is that, since the late 1990s, Trump was also greatly assisted by these abundant new sources of global finance, especially from “submerging markets” like Russia

Paul Ryan power point meme1
Rex Tillerson is incapable of doing an actual job.  The State Department is in disarray and it’s hard to see how Tillerson is doing anything to change that.  Here’s some analysis from David Ignatius writing for WAPO.

Tillerson’s State Department has been in idle gear these past two months. He doesn’t have a deputy or other top aides. His spokesman can’t give guidance on key issues, because decisions haven’t yet been made. Tillerson didn’t attend important meetings with foreign leaders.

As a former chief executive of ExxonMobil, Tillerson is accustomed to a world where a visible display of power is unnecessary, corporate planning is meticulous and office politics are suppressed. But this is Washington

“I am an engineer by training. I seek to understand the facts,” Tillerson said at his confirmation hearing. That sounds reassuring, but it doesn’t fit the glitzy, backstabbing capital that spawned the television series “House of Cards.”

“He may pay some cost up front for not meeting Washington expectations,” notes Stephen Hadley, national security adviser for President George W. Bush and a Tillerson supporter. “The short-term buzz was that he’s out of the loop, but Tillerson is playing for the long game.”

Tillerson couldn’t even get his choice for a deputy pass President Bannon.

The Republicans in the House and Senate are using the chaos to cover up their end game. Obamacare replacementThey’re trying to dismantle everything from Medicare, Medicaid, the ACA, the EPA, Social Security, Dodd Frank, and just about anything used to protect citizens from the malfeasance of of short sighted, profit-oriented business practices which rule the US commerce landscape.  The GOP is planning a full scale assault on Federal Regulations.

There is a flurry of anti-regulatory legislation floating around Capitol Hill, but it is becoming clear that the key Republican vehicle to rein in rulemaking will be Ohio Senator Rob Portman’s Regulatory Accountability Act. A 16-page draft of the legislation obtained by POLITICO was significantly less radical than several aggressive bills recently passed by the House of Representatives, but industry groups have pinned their hopes on this one attracting support from enough moderate Democrats to overcome a Senate filibuster and make it to Trump’s desk. And even if the Portman bill won’t automatically ensure “the deconstruction of the administrative state” promised by White House adviser Steve Bannon, it could still dramatically curtail the power of government regulators in the long run.

Portman has not yet introduced the bill, but behind the scenes in Washington it is already the subject of furious lobbying by more than 150 public interest groups that oppose it as well as more than 600 business groups that support it. It is much narrower than a bill the House passed last month with the same name, but would still revamp and insert new bureaucratic hurdles into the federal regulatory process, which the Obama Administration used to enact tough new restrictions on coal plants, Wall Street banks, for-profit colleges and other corporate entities. The Portman bill would add new obstacles for agencies to overcome before enacting economically significant rules, require them to choose the most cost-effective alternative, and give judges more discretion to block regulations when the regulated interests object.

“When I visit a factory or small business in Ohio, one of the complaints I hear most from employers is that there are too many costly and unnecessary regulations that limit their ability to invest in their business,” Portman said. “We need a smarter regulatory process that promotes job creation, innovation, and economic growth.”

Portman and the Washington business community are portraying his reforms as a pragmatic approach to burdensome red tape, hoping to distinguish them from more extreme Republican bills that would give Congress a veto over all major rules, eliminate the deference that courts traditionally give to federal agencies, and even forbid those agencies from implementing rules until every lawsuit against them is resolved. House Republicans have passed five regulatory reform bills this year, and have introduced a dozen more, but insiders say most of them are doomed to die in the Senate, where 60 votes are required to overcome a filibuster. That’s why Portman is now negotiating over his more temperate language with Democratic senators Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, who are both up for reelection in 2018 in states Trump won easily. Democrats Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Bill Nelson of Florida and independent Angus King of Maine have supported similar bills in the past.

Trump has not outlived his usefulness to the Republican Agenda of installing a warped Christian Theocracy and a kleptocracy capable of ruining the environment and killing people.  Portman obviously decided Trump was the way to sneak a lot of things through.

And then there’s Paul Ryan who thinks the only thing that should occur right now is decimation of the ACA regardless of the results.  It’s right there on his Power Point.  It pretty much looked like the Republican version was DOA yesterday but now Senate Republicans are actually talking about changing the Senate rules to get it shoved through one way or another.  This is despite the massive outrage about the repeal.

A growing number of conservative lawmakers on Thursday urged GOP leaders to push the limits of how much of the health law they can reshape under a powerful procedural maneuver known as budget reconciliation — and to overrule the Senate parliamentarian if she doesn’t decide in their favor.

Such a gambit would require the unlikely buy-in of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), a noted institutionalist who earlier this year avoided talk of changing his chamber’s rules to kill the ability to filibuster Supreme Court nominees.

If the Senate changes precedent for what can be passed under reconciliation now, a future Senate — whether controlled by Republicans or Democrats — could enact a wide range of legislation with just a simple majority.

“There are limits to what we can do” on Obamacare while complying with the Senate rules, Finance Chairman Orrin Hatch, the longest-serving Senate Republican, said in a Thursday floor speech. Under reconciliation guidelines, bills can be passed in the Senate with a simple majority and cannot be filibustered, as long as their provisions have a direct impact on spending or tax levels.

I wake up every day in fear of what’s coming next.  It seems that everything I’ve ever planned my old age around is now collapsing around me.  The Republican Plan is a massive DumpsterFire. 53_192516Paul Krugman has some great analysis.

 Obamacare rests on three main pillars. Insurance companies are regulated, prevented from denying coverage or charging higher prices to Americans with pre-existing conditions. Families receive subsidies linked to both income and premiums, to help them buy insurance. And there is a penalty for those who don’t buy insurance, to induce people to sign up even if they’re currently healthy

Trumpcare — the White House insists that we not call it that, which means that we must — preserves some version of all three elements, but in drastically, probably fatally weakened form.

Insurers are still barred from excluding the sick, but they’re allowed to charge older Americans — who need insurance the most — much higher premiums.

Subsidies are still there, in the form of tax credits, but they’re no longer linked to either income (as long as it’s below $75,000) or the cost of insurance.

And the tax on those who don’t sign up becomes a small surcharge — paid to insurance companies, not the public — on people who sign up after previously letting coverage lapse.

Affluent young people might end up saving some money as a result of these changes. But the effect on those who are older and less affluent would be devastating. AARP has done the math: a 55-year-old making $25,000 a year would end up paying $3,600 a year more for coverage; that rises to $8,400 for a 64-year-old making $15,000 a year. And that’s before the death spiral.

For the combination of price hikes and weakened penalties would lead many healthy Americans to forgo insurance. This would worsen the risk pool, causing premiums to rise sharply — and remember, subsidies would no longer adjust to offset this rise. The result would be even more people dropping out. Republicans have been claiming that Obamacare is collapsing, which isn’t true. But Trumpcare, if implemented, would collapse in a Mar-a-Lago minute.

How could House Republicans under the leadership of Paul Ryan, who the media keeps assuring us is a smart, serious policy wonk, have produced such a monstrosity?

The only thing that’s been fun about this is the Twitter Attack on Paul Ryan and his Power Points.

So, I know a few people that have been basically kidnapped by their families and put into conversion therapy.  This story of a survivor is chilling reading.

TC, a 19-year-old gay man who spoke to The Huffington Post anonymously for this article in order to protect his safety, is a survivor of conversion therapy practices.

TC was subjected to conversion therapy in 2012 when he was 15 years old after his parents discovered he was gay. The conversion therapy practices took place in the basement of a church after school hours, and were explained to TC and his parents as having two separate components. He told The Huffington Post:

The first step ― which usually lasted six months ― [is] where they “deconstruct us as a person.” Their tactics still haunt me. Aversion therapy, shock therapy, harassment and occasional physical abuse. Their goal was to get us to hate ourselves for being LGBTQ (most of us were gay, but the entire spectrum was represented), and they knew what they were doing…. The second step of the program, they “rebuilt us in their image.” They removed us of everything that made us a unique person, and instead made us a walking, talking, robot for Jesus. They retaught us everything we knew. How to eat, talk, walk, dress, believe, even breathe. We were no longer people at the end of the program.

TC said that the conversion therapy sessions would take place every weekday, with shock therapy treatments lasting approximately an hour, and aversion therapy lasting three.

This is torture. Pure and Simple.

So, this is what they’d fund while getting Insurance 101 wrong.

Paul Ryan actually said “The whole idea of Obamacare is…the people who are healthy pay for the…sick. It’s not working, & that’s why it’s in a death spiral.”

No Speaker that’s a risk pool and it’s how insurance works.

011917coletoon

Everyone pays into the pot and draws on it when they’re sick. Younger people, who tend to be healthier than older people, pay for health insurance like everyone else. They’ll rely on it when when they need it, probably more when they’re older and there are younger, healthier people filing in behind them. It’s the same with car insurance

. Some people pay for decades and never get into an accident and never collect on their coverage (though the likelihood of anyone never using health insurance is unlikely).That’s what actuarial figures are all about, so an insurance system can assess the risks of segments of customers to determine what everyone needs to put into the pot so there’s enough to pay out when someone needs the money.

Ryan has perhaps been on taxpayer-paid health insurance for so long that he has forgotten how the concept works. He believes that’s only the way it works for Obamacare. “The conceit of Obamacare,” he said at his press conference on Trumpcare, is that “young and healthy people are going to go into the market and pay for the older, sicker people.” That’s why Obamacare is in a “death spiral,” he noted.

Twitter had a pretty predictable response to Ryan’s summary of health insurance: Duh.

Meanwhile, every one except the stupid, the greedy, the mean, and the crazy resist.

Well, what’s on your reading and blogging list today?


46 Comments on “Friday Reads: Death Spirals Real and Imagined”

  1. dakinikat says:

    Trump’s economic adviser says Trump had nothing to do with Friday’s strong jobs report

    http://www.businessinsider.com/gary-cohn-economic-advisor-trump-jobs-report-credit-2017-3

  2. dakinikat says:

    Roger Stone’s Russian Hacking “Hero”
    Trump loyalist communicated with “Guccifer 2.0”

    http://www.thesmokinggun.com/documents/investigation/roger-stone-and-guccifer-913684

    • bostonboomer says:

      Also in yesterday’s post.

      • Minkoff Minx says:

        Your post yesterday was good. I shared it with my family. It just made it so difficult for me to do anything else the rest of the last 24 hours but lie down and stare at the ceiling.

        • bostonboomer says:

          I recognize that feeling. All day long I’ve been thinking it’s Saturday. On the bright side, the smoking guy appears to have gone somewhere. I hope it will be for the entire weekend. Maybe he’ll get snowed in somewhere.

      • dakinikat says:

        Rats. I was trying to just grab the follow up links since this story is unfolding quickly.

        • bostonboomer says:

          NWLuna posted the Smoking Gun story on Wed. I couldn’t make it through the whole thing. It’s really long. But I’m glad you posted it because it’s a great reference on Roger Stone–a very detailed history. It’s truly fascinating that Nixon, Stone, and Trump were all deeply involved with Roy Cohn.

  3. NW Luna says:

    It’s all corruption piled on corruption, interlayered with acts of collusion with a hostile state. And the GOP has sold its soul (if it ever had one) for power.

    • Enheduanna says:

      I’m sure there’s a tRump toadie just waiting (or will be appointed soon) to award that contract too.

    • dakinikat says:

      I understand Maxine Waters said Dems are looking to file impeachment papers

      • NW Luna says:

        There are plenty of reasons (and evidence) for filing them.

      • Minkoff Minx says:

        Why is it taking so damn long? To impeach this asshole?

        • dakinikat says:

          I imagine they’ve got I’s to dot and t’s to cross and then, there’s Republicans who are frantically trying to pull the government down while he’s still around. I think they figure they’ll be a mandate to stop everything if they have to move forward with impeachment. I wonder if they think that they’ll lose the midterm and Pence becomes a lame duck immediately.

          • NW Luna says:

            “lose the midterm”

            A lot of signs point that way, and I’m going to enjoy when it happens.

          • ANonOMouse says:

            Articles of Impeachment can only be brought to the floor by the House and once voted up by the majority a trial is held in the Senate. Two-thirds vote is required for a conviction in the Senate. Since the Dems aren’t in control of the House I wouldn’t expect to see any impeachment effort until after Paul Ryan is able to throw all of his grenades into our Social Compacts. He’s absolutely ecstatic about gutting Medicaid and SCHIP/State Childrens Health Insurance Program and destroying the mechanisms that fund Medicare. We know that the GOP wants to stop funding to food stamp programs including WIC and they want to end funding to Planned Parenthood which offers income based medical care to 2.5 million Women, men and children every year. They also want to end Federal Funding to State Unemployment insurance programs and cut the HUD budget $6 Billion Dollars. That will mean cuts to housing for the poorest among us. Make America Great Again really means Make America 1950 Again.

            So the long and the short of it is the GOP doesn’t give a goddamn if people, particularly the most vulnerable in our society have food, shelter or health care. BASTARDS! All of them need to be run out of town by an angry mob of people and vanquished to their mother country, Russia.

            This is becoming more frightening by the day and it’s going to require something more blatant than calling Congress or going to Town Hall meetings. This will not end well if the GOP doesn’t change it’s course quickly.

        • dakinikat says:

          i mean an unpeachment process would take up a lot of time and they couldn’t probably get an thing else done

  4. Enheduanna says:

    Here’s some more depressing stuff:

    In addition to the Senior PGA Championship being held at a tRump golf course, the U.S. WOMEN’S OPEN is scheduled at one:

    http://www.2017uswomensopen.com/

    That info came from Hullabaloo:
    http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2017/03/the-president-brand-is-doing-very-well.html

    I had naively thought his brand would tank after people learned about him. I can never ever be cynical of people enough.

  5. NW Luna says:

    Uh Huh.

  6. NW Luna says:

    Yeah, who’d expect they’d focus on her clothes rather than her message. Are we still in the 1950s?

    A lawyer named Amal Clooney gave a powerful speech at the U.N. Some only saw her baby bump.

    An accomplished, international human rights lawyer delivered a potent call for action at the United Nations on Thursday, urging the organization to back an investigation into crimes committed by the Islamic State in Iraq.

    “I am speaking to you, the Iraqi government, and to you, U.N. member states, when I ask: Why? Why has nothing been done?” Amal Clooney, the British-Lebanese barrister who represents victims of Islamic State rapes and kidnappings, said. She implored Iraq and the world’s nations, using another name for the Islamic State: “Don’t let ISIS get away with genocide.” It was a day after International Women’s Day, and a renowned female lawyer was giving a powerful speech addressing one of the world’s most pressing humanitarian threats.

    But a number of headlines seemed to focus elsewhere: her baby bump. And her daffodil-yellow dress and matching coat. Oh, and in case anyone forgot, she’s married to Hollywood movie star George Clooney. The tabloid Mirror published the headline, “Amal Clooney is a vision in yellow as she shows off hint of baby bump in chic dress.” Entertainment Tonight went with, “Amal Clooney Stuns in Yellow While Delivering Passionate Speech at the United Nations.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2017/03/10/a-lawyer-named-amal-clooney-gave-a-powerful-speech-at-u-n-some-only-saw-her-baby-bump/?tid=hybrid_experimentrandom_3_na&utm_term=.9c1fd06464ba

  7. bostonboomer says:

    Excellent post. Thanks for the updates. I’ve been kind of busy today. Going to read links now.

  8. NW Luna says:

    Another horrible act. This is very close to me. I can at least go there with a sign of support.

    Temple De Hirsch Sinai vandalized with anti-Semitic graffiti; suspicious package found

    Rabbi Daniel A. Weiner wrote on the synagogue’s Facebook page that the graffiti was spray-painted on the facade of the old sanctuary. The temple is in the 1500 block of East Pike Street.

    “It was just horrifically disturbing graffiti that kind of encompassed all classic anti-Semitic tropes of Holocaust denial and of Jewish affinity for money,” Weiner sad in an interview with KOMO News Radio. “It was immensely troubling and immensely disturbing and shocking to me and to our community.”

    The incident comes amid a wave of threats against Jewish community centers across the country

    http://komonews.com/news/local/temple-de-hirsch-sinai-vandalized-with-anti-semtic-graffiti

  9. Minkoff Minx says:

    Just a question, my mom has lost all her hair to the chemo treatment. I am thinking of buzzing my hair in solidarity. I think she would appreciate it. What do you all think? Dak? You have been through this…

    • Pat Johnson says:

      JJ, you are a sweetheart! Do it!

    • NW Luna says:

      If you think your mom would like it, and you want to, sure!

      As someone who had chemo myself, it doesn’t really matter what others do with their hair. I was on a combo often nick-named “chemo lite,” but ended up having to stop it after 8 courses because I couldn’t tolerate it anymore and still keep working part-time which I had to do to keep my medical insurance. All my sick leave was more than used up from surgeries. Turned out I only had thinning, but some people lost more. I was too sick to pay attention to much else happening around then.

      • bostonboomer says:

        I think that would be so generous and supportive of you, JJ. I bet you’ll look cute too.

    • dakinikat says:

      Up to you. You can get her a wig or some nice scarves too. How does she feel about it all? I was bald for like a year. By the time July rolled around, I was too hot to care and the kids in then neighborhood thought I was Sinead O’Connor! So, just ask her!!

    • Fannie says:

      I’ll be happy to give some of mine.

  10. NW Luna says:

  11. Fannie says:

    Went to see the doc yesterday. She requested a digital photo for the files, that’s when I asked her how many Iphones this was going to cost me?

  12. NW Luna says:

    More shady business. IDK how it’s related to the collusion with Russia. It is more evidence that anything Trump is dodgy and involves lying to the American people.

    Flynn Paid Ex-FBI Agents, Behavior Analysts In Lobbying Work For Turkish Government

    Former national security adviser Michael Flynn’s lobbying work for the Turkish government involved payments to several former FBI officials and a retired admiral who served in a top intelligence role for the joint chiefs of staff. Flynn’s consulting firm, Flynn Intel Group, also paid a behavior analysis firm operated by two former FBI agents.

    Flynn disclosed that information to the Justice Department earlier this week when registering as a foreign agent for the Turkish government. ….

    Flynn Intel disclosed very little about the lobbying arrangement in filings with the U.S. Senate in September. Nor was the information disclosed in December, when Flynn Intel terminated the relationship with Inovo after Flynn was chosen as Trump’s national security adviser. That final filing listed that Flynn Intel received less than $5,000 for its work for Inovo BV, far less than the $530,000 reported this week.

    http://dailycaller.com/2017/03/09/flynn-paid-ex-fbi-agents-behavior-analysts-in-lobbying-work-for-turkish-government/#ixzz4axQPmo6w

  13. dakinikat says:

    So, Pence is part of a cover up … that’s like watergate level ….