Lazy Saturday Reads: Stars Come Out for Hillary; Trump Awakens a Sleeping Giant

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Good Morning!!

This election is looking very good for Hillary Clinton. In just three more days, she will more than likely be President Elect Hillary Clinton. I can’t wait to vote for her on Tuesday! I thought about voting early, but I finally decided to wait and go to my regular polling place on election day. That will be a very special moment. I already shed some tears when I voted for Hillary in the 2008 primary and again in the 2016 primary. But Tuesday will be the big enchilada.

Last night Hillary appeared with Jay Z and Beyonce at the get-out-the-vote concert in Cleveland. NYT:

In an election year when Hillary Clinton is depending on young black voters to turn out, she may have gotten her biggest boost yet here on Friday.

Some of the most famous names in hip-hop came out to rally votes for her at an event that featured Beyoncé, Jay Z and Chance the Rapper, all of whom implored thousands of cheering people to back the Democratic presidential nominee.

“Hello, Cleveland!” Mrs. Clinton said as she stood onstage with Beyoncé and Jay Z.

Mrs. Clinton called Beyoncé “a woman who is an inspiration to so many others” and thanked Jay Z “for addressing in his music some of our biggest challenges in the country: poverty, racism, the urgent need for criminal justice reform.”

“When I see them here, this passion and energy and intensity, I don’t even know where to begin because this is what America is, my friends,” she said.

At the concert, aimed largely at urging black voters and millennials to vote on Tuesday, some of the biggest stars emphasized the historical significance of potentially electing the first woman as president.

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Cleveland.com:

Jay Z began the concert with “Made in America.” He performed behind a screen that manipulated his face to look like an American flag. A-list artists, including Beyonce, Big Sean, Chance the Rapper, and J. Cole surprised a pumped up crowd….

Jay Z performed behind a black and white photograph of the White House. He repeated Clinton’s campaign slogan: “Stronger Together.”

Each special performer emerged, one after another, thrilling the crowd of about 10,000. Politics overlaid performance. Words flashed behind the musicians on a large screen:

  • “Bad officials are elected by good citizens who do not vote”
  • “And on that day I did nothing”
  • “Shape Tomorrow, Vote Today”
  • “Your voice, your vote”

The crowd erupted in screams as Beyonce took the stage. Queen B delivered a heartfelt speech about what seeing a woman in the White House means to her.

“There was a time when a woman’s opinion did not matter if you were black, if you were white, Mexican, Asian, Muslim, educated, poor or rich. If you were a woman, it did not matter. Less than 100 years ago, women did not have the right to vote.  Look how far we’ve come from having no voice to being on the brink of making history, again, by electing the first woman president. But we have to vote. The world looks to us as a progressive country that leads change,” Beyonce said. “I want my daughter to grow up seeing a woman lead our country.”

She transitioned into an appropriately patriotic song: Freedom. And followed it up with a medley of female empowerment songs: “Independent Women,” and “Run the World (Girls).”

The screen behind her flashed: “I’m with her.”

Hillary at concert with Jennifer Lopez and Marc Anthony in Miami

Hillary at concert with Jennifer Lopez and Marc Anthony in Miami

And who was campaigning for Donald Trump? NYT: Big Names Campaigning for Hillary Clinton Underscore Donald Trump’s Isolation.

Hillary Clinton campaigned Friday in the company of friends and celebrities, first flanked by the billionaire businessman Mark Cuban in Pittsburgh and Detroit, and then at a concert in Cleveland with Jay Z and Beyoncé. High-wattage political leaders fanned out for her around the country: Her husband, Bill, stumped in Colorado, as President Obama rallied voters in North Carolina.

By comparison, Donald J. Trump was a lonely figure.

In the final days of the presidential race, Mr. Trump’s political isolation has made for an unusual spectacle on the campaign trail — and perhaps a limiting factor in his dogged comeback bid.

When it comes to bolstering Mr. Trump, the Republican Party is not sending its best: As party leaders have disavowed him or declined to back his candidacy, Mr. Trump has been left instead with an eclectic group of backup players to aid him in his last dash for votes. Though polls show Mr. Trump drawing closer to Mrs. Clinton, the most prominent Republicans in key swing states still fear that his unpopularity may taint them by association.

Trump told a crowd in Hershey, PA that he doesn’t need anyone but himself.

“By the way, I didn’t have to bring J. Lo or Jay Z — the only way she gets anybody,” he said. “ I am here all by myself. Just me — no guitar, no piano, no nothing.”

Campaigning in New Hampshire earlier on Friday, Mr. Trump did not appear with either Senator Kelly Ayotte, a Republican seeking re-election, or Chris Sununu, the Republican nominee for governor. Ms. Ayotte withdrew her endorsement of Mr. Trump last month, and Mr. Sununu has kept an awkward distance from Mr. Trump in his closely divided state.

Hillary with Katy Perry in Iowa

Hillary with Katy Perry in Iowa

Tonight Hillary will be in Philadelphia for a free concert with Katy Perry.

Meanwhile, massive early voting by Latinos in Nevada, Florida, and Arizona is looking very good for Hillary and Democrats.

CNN: Democrats build huge early vote lead in battleground Nevada.

Democrats have built what could be an insurmountable edge in Nevada at the end of early voting in the Western battleground state.

In key regions, the party is matching or outpacing the lead President Barack Obama had at this point in 2012 on his way to a nearly 7-percentage-point win of the state’s six electoral votes.
Clark County — home of Las Vegas and more than two-thirds of Nevada’s active registered voters — saw its record for single-day early vote turnout shattered Friday when 57,174 people cast their ballots, according to data from the Nevada secretary of state’s office that’s based on the party registration of those who have voted.
Overall, Democrats have built a lead of more than 72,000 votes there — 13.7 points ahead of Republicans, and slightly larger than Obama’s 2012 edge.

Donald Trump will be in Reno on Saturday, but the Republicans almost certainly lost Nevada on Friday.

Trump’s path was nearly impossible, as I have been telling you, before what happened in Clark County on Friday. But now he needs a Miracle in Vegas on Election Day — and a Buffalo Bills Super Bowl championship is more likely — to turn this around. The ripple effect down the ticket probably will cost the Republicans Harry Reid’s Senate seat, two GOP House seats and control of the Legislature.

Early voting crowd at Cardenas in Las Vegas

Early voting crowd at Cardenas in Las Vegas

How devastating was it, epitomized by thousands of mostly Latino voters keeping Cardenas market open open in Vegas until 10 PM? This cataclysmic:

—-The Democrats won Clark County by more than 11,000 votes Friday (final mail count not posted yet), a record margin on a record-setting turnout day of 57,000 voters. The Dems now have a firewall — approaching 73,000 ballots — greater than 2012 when Barack Obama won the state by nearly 7 points. The 71,000 of 2012 was slightly higher in percentage terms, but raw votes matter. The lead is 14 percentage points — right at registration. You know what else matters? Registration advantages (142,000 in Clark). Reminder: When the Clark votes were counted from early/mail voting in 2012, Obama had a 69,000 vote lead in Clark County. Game over.

—-The statewide lead (some rurals not posted) will be above 45,000 — slightly under the 48,000 of 2012, but still robust. That’s 6 percentage points, or right about at registration. The GOP turnout advantage was under a percent, worse than 2012 when it was 1.1 percent.

—-The Dems eked out a 200-vote win in Washoe and lead there by 1,000 votes. It was even in 2012. The rural lead, before the stragglers come in, is 27,500. It probably will get above 28,000.

—-Total turnout without those rurals: 768,000, or 52.5 percent. If overall turnout ends up being 80 percent, that means two thirds of the vote is in — close to 2012. Republicans would have to not only win Election Day by close to double digits to turn around the lead Hillary Clinton almost surely has in early voting, but they would have to astronomically boost turnout. The goal for the Dems during early voting was to bank votes and to boost turnout as high as possible to minimize the number of votes left on Election Day to affect races. Folks, the Reid Machine went out with a bang.

Lines for early voting in Arizona

Lines for early voting in Arizona

Arizona has seen the largest increase of early voting by Latinos of any state.

As of Oct. 30, nine days before the Nov. 8 election, 13 percent of the early ballots cast in Arizona came from Latino voters, up from 11 percent at the same point prior to the 2012 presidential election and from 8 percent in 2008.

The increase from 2012 to 2016 is the largest increase in early voting by Latinos in any state, according to statistics compiled by Catalist, a data company that works with progressive candidates and groups….

Data tabulated by Arizona’s Democratic Party showed an even bigger increase in early voting by Latinos in Arizona, from 6.2 percent in 2012 to nearly 12 percent through Nov. 1. The data is based on Hispanic surnames.

As of Nov. 1, the share of early balloting from voters with Hispanic surnames was nearly double the same time in 2012….

“There has been a large push by many Latino groups to vote by early ballot by mail to avoid any hassles at the ballot box in presenting ID and Latinos under extra scrutiny at the polls,” Garcia said.

There also are not a lot of undecided Latino voters, many of whom have been turned off by Donald Trump’s harsh comments about Mexicans and immigrants, Garcia said.

98-year-old early voter in Florida

98-year-old early voter in Florida

Early voting by Latinos is also setting records in Colorado, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina.

Donald Trump awakened a sleeping giant with his attacks on Mexicans and immigrants.

More news, links only:

Mother Jones: Exclusive: The Democratic National Committee Has Told the FBI It Found Evidence Its HQ Was Bugged

AP via Politico: Melania Trump modeled in U.S. prior to getting work visa.

Wall Street Journal: National Enquirer Shielded Donald Trump From Playboy Model’s Affair Allegation.

HuffPo: A Guy In A Trump Shirt Carried A Gun Outside Of A Virginia Polling Place. Authorities Say That’s Fine.

Jezebel: The Woman Who Accused Trump of Raping Her at 13 Just Dropped Her Lawsuit.

NBC News: U.S. Govt. Hackers Ready to Hit Back If Russia Tries to Disrupt Election.

Washington Post: Trump is a threat to the West as we know it, even if he loses.

Raw Story: Wolf Blitzer catches Giuliani telling whoppers on FBI connection: ‘Aren’t they feeding you secret information?’


Friday Reads: Living among Banana Republicans

6e1970c1d4aba979fa270046380548d4Good Afternoon!

We’ve got a few days until election day and it appears that we’re on the right track to welcome Madam President!  I’m hoping the level of toxicity will go away along with certain personalities since the media will find fewer reasons to interview the losing side.  I’m not going to miss the lies of Campaign Mommy and I’m certainly ready to send Rudy G back to oblivion.  The thought of never being traumatized by a mere glimpse of a Trump rally really gives me some peace of mind.

However, whatever are we going to do with the detritus that’s been kicked up in the process? I certainly hope our Republic is resilient enough to deal with all that authoritarianism that’s sprung from the Republican Party.  How did they go from Richard Nixon to loving Putin and police states in a matter of 4 decades?  Well, the police state loving maybe, but Putin?  Russia?  WTF?

Jeet Heer–writing for TNR–suggests Steve Bannon has a long game and Trumpism is a part of it.  How are we going to deal the Alt-Right and its new found voice and muscle some of which appears to be comfortably home in our law enforcement agencies?

But there is ample reason to think that Trumpism will continue to be a powerful force in the Republican Party simply because Stephen Bannon will be around to promote it. Over the last two years, Bannon has proven himself to be a formidable figure on the right, with both the means and the ambition to alter the political landscape.

Independently wealthy thanks to his background as a Goldman Sachs banker and Hollywood executive (he still collects Seinfeld royalties), bolstered by ties to hedge fund billionaires like Robert Mercer, and the head of a cutting-edge right-wing media empire, Bannon has already been instrumental in creating Trumpism. Under Bannon’s guidance, Breitbart.com has played the same role in relationship to Trump that National Review played in the rise of Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan, or Rush Limbaugh played in the 1990s in the rise of Newt Gingrich, or Fox News played in the rise of George W. Bush. Breitbart.com has been the essential media herald that has both anticipated and amplified Trump’s main platform of right-wing nationalism with a xenophobic bent.

As Joshua Green noted in an exceptionally shrewd profile of Bannon that ran in Bloomberg Businessweek in October of 2015, Breitbart represented only one arrow in Bannon’s political quiver. Breitbart is useful for stirring up the right-wing masses, but Bannon also realized he had to influence centrist elites. To that end, he created the nonprofit Government Accountability Institute (GAI), which has already had a massive influence on the election by giving Peter Schweizer, president of the institute, the resources to write Clinton Cash: The Untold Story of How and Why Foreign Governments and Businesses Helped Make Bill and Hillary Rich.

The goal of the GAI is to collect plausible opposition research on politicians Bannon opposes (which includes not just Hillary Clinton but Republicans like Jeb Bush). This oppo is explicitly designed to be so plausible it can be taken up by mainstream publications like The New York Times and The Washington Post.

As Bannon told Green, “The modern economics of the newsroom don’t support big investigative reporting staffs. You wouldn’t get a Watergate, a Pentagon Papers today, because nobody can afford to let a reporter spend seven months on a story. We can. We’re working as a support function.” By pre-packing reportage that is ready to run, Green noted, Bannon has figured out “how conservatives can hack the mainstream media,” adding that “‘weaponizing’ a story onto the front page of The New York Times(‘the Left’) is infinitely more valuable than publishing it on Breitbart.com.”

Clinton Cash has been one of Bannon’s great successes. Although later subject to devastating criticism, the book made its initial splash in the Times and shaped the idea that the Clinton Foundation is corrupt. Indeed, Clinton Cash is still causing trouble: the Post reported on Thursday that FBI agents in New York relied heavily on the book in an investigation of the Clinton Foundation that the Department of Justice ended up shutting down for lack of sufficient evidence.

Stephen Bannon has everything he needs to keep Trumpism alive even if Trump himself loses the election on Tuesday. Bannon has the ideological passion, the financial resources, the media connections, and a shrewd sense of how American politics works.

f20d4118d078515a1adb394a42c19b3fBannon plays on deep divisions.  The worst of these we’ve seen recently coming out of the FBI where agents have taken the hit piece Clinton Cash as an investigative bible.  Then, there’s the glee with which Rudy Giuliani has played his friends in the FBI.  These divisions are not going away with the election. The news now reports that there is no real investigation of either Clinton or the Clinton Foundation, but as campaign Mommy crowed on MSNBC just last night, the damage of the lies has been done.  It’s also damaged the historically iffy reputation of the FBI.

Deep divisions inside the FBI and the Justice Department over how to handle investigations dealing with Hillary Clinton will probably fester even after Tuesday’s presidential election and pose a significant test for James B. Comey’s leadership of the nation’s chief law enforcement agency.

The internal dissension has exploded into public view recently with leaks to reporters about a feud over the Clinton Foundation, an extraordinary airing of the agency’s infighting that comes as the bureau deals with an ongoing threat of terror at home and a newly aggressive posture from Russia.

Comey, meanwhile, has come under direct fire for his decision to tell Congress that agents were resuming their investigation of Clinton’s use of a private email server — a revelation that put him at odds with his Justice Department bosses and influenced the presidential campaign.

“He’s got to get control of the ship again,” said Robert Anderson, a former senior official in the FBI who considers Comey a friend. “There’s a lot of tension in the organization, and there’s a lot of tension in Congress and the Senate right now, and all that counts toward how much people trust the FBI.”

postcardDisinformation has ruled the day and it’s concerning to think that the Russians had something to do with making the Clinton Email server a story when there really is no there there.  The  true scandal over this is not coming from the server or Clinton.  It’s the press joining in to support a witch hunt and lies that have taken on a third world political coup feel all year.  It’s especially haunting given Russian  and Trump treatment of Journalists and the first amendment.  Are ratings really worth tanking a democracy?

… email-related talk has dogged Clinton throughout the election and it has influenced public perceptions of her in an overwhelmingly negative way. July polling showed 56 percent of Americans believed Clinton broke the law by relying on a personal email address with another 36 percent piling on to say the episode showed “bad judgments” albeit not criminality.

Because Clinton herself apologized for it and because it does not appear to be in any way important, Clinton allies, surrogates, and co-partisans have largely not familiarized themselves with the details of the matter, instead saying vaguely that it was an error of judgment and she apologized and America has bigger fish to fry.

This has had the effect of further inscribing and reinscribing the notion that Clinton did something wrong, meaning that every bit of micro-news that puts the scandal back on cable amounts to reminding people of something bad that Clinton did. In total, network newscasts have, remarkably, dedicated more airtime to coverage of Clinton’s emails than to all policy issues combined.

 This is unfortunate because emailgate, like so many Clinton pseudo-scandals before it, is bullshit. The real scandal here is the way a story that was at best of modest significance came to dominate the US presidential election — overwhelming stories of much more importance, giving the American people a completely skewed impression of one of the two nominees, and creating space for the FBI to intervene in the election in favor of its apparently preferred candidate in a dangerous way.

6a00d8341ce04153ef01a73dd83f18970d-800wiYes.  That’s Matt Yglesias writing for VOX and succinctly identifying the real scandal.  Bolding is mine.  Even Andrew Sullivan has been pearl clutching over the rise of Trumpism and its resemblance to the political leanings of Banana Republics

I have long had faith that some version of fascism cannot come to power in America. The events of the past year suggest deep reflection on that conviction. A political hurricane has arrived, as globalization has eroded the economic power of the white working classes, as the cultural left has overplayed its hand on social and racial issues, and as a catastrophic war and a financial crisis has robbed the elites of their credibility. As always in history, you still needed the spark, the unique actor who could deploy demagogic talent to drag an advanced country into violence and barbarism. In Trump, America found one for the ages.

Maybe the worst won’t happen on Tuesday. Maybe this catastrophist possible reading of our times is massively overblown. Maybe this short essay will be ridiculed in the future, as either Clinton wins and prevails in power, or if Trump turns out to be a far different president than he has been as a candidate. I sure hope so. But the fact that we may barely avoid a very deep crisis does not mitigate my anxiety. To paraphrase Benjamin Franklin, we live in a republic, if we can keep it. And yet, more than two centuries later, we are openly contemplating throwing it up in the air and seeing where it might land.

Do what you can.

If you haven’t read Paul Krugman today, please do so!  He discusses in detail all the Republican hissy fits that have led us to this point. It’s worth reading the lead up to this conclusion.

What was the purpose of this assault on the implicit rules and understandings that we need to make democracy work? Well, when Newt Gingrich shut down the government in 1995, he was trying to, guess what, privatize Medicare. The rage against Bill Clinton partly reflected the fact that he raised taxes modestly on the wealthy.

In other words, Republican leaders have spent the past couple of decades doing exactly what the likes of Mr. Ryan are doing now: trashing democratic norms in pursuit of economic benefits for their donor class.

So we shouldn’t really be too surprised that Mr. Comey, who turns out to be a Republican first and a public servant, well, not so much, decided to politically weaponize his position on the eve of the election; that’s what Republicans have been doing across the board. And we shouldn’t be surprised at all that Mr. Trump’s lurid personal failings haven’t caused a break with the leaders of his party’s establishment: They decided long ago that only Democrats have scandals.

Despite Mr. Comey’s abuse of power, Mrs. Clinton will probably win. But Republicans won’t accept it. When Mr. Trump rages about a “rigged election,” expect muted disagreement at best from a party establishment that in a fundamental sense never accepts the legitimacy of a Democrat in the White House. And no matter what Mrs. Clinton does, the barrage of fake scandals will continue, now with demands for impeachment.

Can anything be done to limit the damage? It would help if the media finally learned its lesson, and stopped treating Republican scandal-mongering as genuine news. And it would also help if Democrats won the Senate, so that at least some governing could get done.

suffrage2I’ve saved the biggest link for last. Kurt Eichenwald has released yet another bombshell that should be news here but only appears to be causing panic and concern in our allies: “WHY VLADIMIR PUTIN’S RUSSIA IS BACKING DONALD TRUMP”.  It’s a great question with lots of good answers at the link.  Newsweek and Eichenwald are headed for Pulitzer territory again.

In phone calls, meetings and cables, America’s European allies have expressed alarm to one another about Donald Trump’s public statements denying Moscow’s role in cyberattacksdesigned to interfere with the U.S. election. They fear the Republican nominee for president has emboldened the Kremlin in its unprecedented cybercampaign to disrupt elections in multiple countries in hopes of weakening Western alliances, according to intelligence, law enforcement and other government officials in the United States and Europe.

While American intelligence officers have privately briefed Trump about Russia’s attempts to influence the U.S. election, he has publicly dismissed that information as unreliable, instead saying this hacking of incredible sophistication and technical complexity could have been done by some 400-pound “guy sitting on their bed” or even a child.

Officials from two European countries tell Newsweek that Trump’s comments about Russia’s hacking have alarmed several NATO partners because it suggests he either does not believe the information he receives in intelligence briefings, does not pay attention to it, does not understand it or is misleading the American public for unknown reasons. One British official says members of that government who are aware of the scope of Russia’s cyberattacks both in Western Europe and America found Trump’s comments “quite disturbing” because they fear that, if elected, the Republican presidential nominee would continue to ignore information gathered by intelligence services in the formulation of U.S. foreign policy.

03e6105f351aeed6927efc95c1f564f9We know the Republicans gave up their heritage of fighting for the rights of African Americans decades ago in order to capture Dixiecrats.  We know they threw over GLBT and women with their explicit support of an extremist brand of American Christianity.  They’ve long supported economic policies that are totally fictional.  They’ve had two legs to stand on.  The first one is absolute law and order which is evidently the last leg standing.  The foreign policy standing that the US is good and the Russians are something else has completely gone by the wayside in this latest move towards becoming the party of Banana Republicans.

My biggest hope is that we give President Hillary Clinton a Democratic Majority in the Senate.  It’s the only way to put some kind of box around the swamp fever plaguing the Alt Right. It needs to be done this election or we may not be able to keep our Republic.

Nasty Women!  Bad Hombres!  TO THE POLLS!!!

What’s on you reading and blogging list today?


Thursday Reads: James Comey’s FBI Tries to Steal 2016 Election for Donald Trump

100-year-old Gertrude Gottschalk of Carson City, NV, casts her ballot. for Hillary.

100-year-old Gertrude Gottschalk of Carson City, NV, casts her ballot. for Hillary.

Good Afternoon!!

This post is illustrated with photos of women who were born before women’s suffrage and are voting for Hillary Clinton.

Just 5 more days until November 8. Then another day of waiting for the votes to be counted. After Hillary wins and we celebrate our first woman President and the ignominious defeat of the authoritarian fascist psychopath, there is going to have to be a major housecleaning at the FBI.

Before I get into the FBI news, some wisdom from 2012 Obama campaign manager Jim Messina.

The Election Polls That Matter. You need to read the whole thing at the NYT, but here’s are some excerpts:

The best campaigns don’t bother with national polls — I’ve come to hate public polling, period. In the 2012 race we focused on a “golden report,” which included 62,000 simulations to determine Mr. Obama’s chances of winning battleground states. It included state tracking polls and nightly calls from volunteers, but no national tracking polls….

Today, campaigns can target voters so well that they can personalize conversations. That is the only way, when any candidate asks about the state of the race, to offer a true assessment.

Hillary Clinton can do that. To my knowledge, Donald J. Trump, who has bragged that he doesn’t care about data in campaigns, can’t….

in recent days, Mr. Trump has campaigned in New Mexico, a state he has no chance of winning. Candidates can get more money and adjust their message, but the one thing they can’t do is make more time; every wasted hour in a noncompetitive state is a grave error. Mrs. Clinton continues to go on the offensive in states like Arizona, where the race is close.

“Big data” is a buzzword, but that concept is outdated. Campaigns have entered the era of “little data.” Huge data sets are often less helpful in understanding an electorate than one or two key data points — for instance, what issue is most important to a particular undecided voter.

With “little data,” campaigns can have direct, highly personalized conversations with voters both on- and offline, like an ad on a voter’s Facebook page addressing an issue the voter is passionate about. In 2016, we see that online political engagement rates (especially for young voters) are at a historic high.

This is why campaigns no longer pay much attention to public polls, which often use conversations with just a few hundred people to make predictions about the entire electorate.

Now please go read the rest and have faith in Hillary’s sophisticated GOTV operation and the Obama coalition!

Conway, MA resident Helen Reed

Conway, MA resident Helen Reed

Positive news for Hillary from Latino Decisions: Latino Electorate On Track For Historic Turnout In 2016.

According to the latest data from our national tracking poll, Latino Decisions projects that between 13.1 million and 14.7 million Latinos will vote in 2016. This estimate represents a three percent to five percent increase over the 2012 Latino turnout rate which, coupled with the dramatic growth of the age-eligible Latino population, will yield between 1.9 million and 3.5 million additional Latinos voters in 2016 compared to the 11.2 million who voted four years ago.

Latino Decisions also projects that 79 percent of Latinos will vote for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, 18 percent for Republican nominee Donald Trump, and the remaining three percent voting for other candidates. Clinton’s projected share is higher than both Latino Decisions’ estimated 75 percent Latino vote share and 71 percent exit poll share Democrat Barack Obama received during his 2012 re-election bid.

Over the past seven weeks, the Latino Decisions weekly tracking poll has demonstrated heightened enthusiasm for voting in 2016 and record-high levels of support for Hillary Clinton. Each week, the released poll has captured a rolling cross-section of 500 bilingual interviews conducted nationwide with Latino registered voters and has found little fluctuation either with respect to likely turnout or the proportion of the Latino electorate anticipated to vote for each presidential candidate. From a statistical modeling perspective, this stability is good and suggests more confidence in our model estimates for Election Day.

More details at the link.

Now for some reads about James Comey’s FBI and their efforts to elect Donald Trump.

jerry-emmett-102-prescott-arizona

Andrew Rosenthal at the NYT: James Comey’s Self-Righteous Meddling.

There are two possible explanations for James Comey’s decision to announce last week that he was examining emails that “appear to be pertinent” to the investigation of Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server.

One explanation, which I tend to believe, is that Comey, the director of the F.B.I., set out to interfere in the campaign on behalf of the Republican Party, a shocking act that would render him unfit for his powerful office.

(In that scenario, the aim may have not primarily been to help Donald Trump, but to preserve the Republican majorities in Congress, which suddenly seemed in danger this fall. Can you imagine how intense the pressure on Comey from the Hill must have been following his announcement this summer that the investigation was being closed?)

The other possible explanation is that he acted out of what you might charitably call a sense of moral rectitude. I think it’s better described as self-righteousness — a dangerous current in modern right-wing politics that has its roots in the rise of the Moral Majority, which aimed to make politics a choice between good values (the right’s) and bad values (the left’s) rather than a competition of ideas.

Certainly, Comey was not acting out of respect for protocol, ethics and procedure….

The idea that he wanted to help his political party is pretty terrifying. But the idea that he acted out of moral self-righteousness is not much more reassuring, given the immense powers of his office.

Read the rest at the NYT link.

ruline-steininger-proud-iowan-103-years-old

Adele Stan at The National Memo: Is Reckless Comey Seeking Revenge On Critics Via FBI Twitter Account?

Something very dangerous is happening in the Federal Bureau of Investigation: The nation’s foremost law enforcement agency appears to be at war both within itself and with the Department of Justice, to which it belongs. The disagreements all involve our national politics and the FBI’s appropriate role in them, leaving the American people with yet another major institution on their do-not-trust list. The government is coming ever more undone, so much so that a recent Twitter post from an FBI account is raising questions about who’s behind it—the director of the FBI, or agents seemingly beyond his control….

Now comes word, via Devlin Barrett of the Wall Street Journal, that agents who were investigating allegations of influence-peddling involving the Clinton Foundation were incensed when higher-ups at the Justice Department urged them to tread carefully so as to adhere to department guidelines against taking action that could influence an election, and that members of the Department’s anti-corruption unit didn’t think the FBI had a strong case.

No kidding. The “investigation” was based on right-wing news articles and the anti-Clinton propaganda tome “Clinton Cash.”

It seems as if whoever controls a Bureau Twitter account called @FBIRecordsVault has struck back against all those Clinton surrogates who are calling foul on Comey. The account, whose purpose is the posting of documents released through Freedom of Information Act requests, appears to have been dead for a year—no postings since Oct. 7, 2015. Suddenly, on Tuesday, it sprang to life with a handful of posts, one a nothing-burger on Fred Trump, father of the Republican standard-bearer; and another on an old investigation of the Clinton Foundation and President Bill Clinton’s pardon of Marc Rich, then a fugitive hedge-fund manager whose wife had donated to the DNC and the Clinton Foundation. It was Comey who brought the criminal case against Rich, Bloomberg News reports, and is said to have been “stunned” by Clinton’s pardon of the financier. The documents linked in the tweet don’t say much of anything (they’re heavily redacted), but the tweet itself does reinforce in the public mind the controversies advanced by Clinton’s enemies about the foundation. It’s not the fact of the tweet that’s at issue—the material was released via FOIA—but the timing of it from an account that was only reactivated Sunday.

Read many more details at the link.

Stellajoe Staebler, 100, Centralia, Washington

Stellajoe Staebler, 100, Centralia, Washington

Judd Legum at Think Progress: FBI launches internal investigation into its own Twitter account.

The account at issue, @FBIRecordsVault, had been dormant for more than a year. Then on October 30 at 4 a.m., the account released a flood of documents, including one describing Donald Trump’s father Fred Trump as a “philanthropist.” ….

But it wasn’t until two days later, when the account tweeted documents regarding President Clinton’s controversial pardon of Marc Rich that the account began to attract significant attention….

Candice Will, Assistant Director for the FBI’s Office of Professional Responsibility, said she was referring the matter to the FBI’s Inspection Division for an “investigation.” Upon completion of the investigation, the Office of Professional Responsibility will be referred back to the Office of Professional Responsibility for “adjudication.”

Federal law and FBI policy prohibit employees from using the power of the department to attempt to influence elections.

Will was responding to a complaint from Jonathan Hutson, a former investigative reporter who now works in communication in Washington, DC.

Read more, and see the tweets at Think Progress.

Estelle Liebow Schultz, 98, of Rockville, Maryland

Estelle Liebow Schultz, 98, of Rockville, Maryland

Eli Lake at Bloomberg: The FBI Wants to Make America Great Again.

As Mark Corallo, a former Justice Department spokesman and Trump supporter, told me Wednesday, “The Marc Rich tweet is evidence of open warfare between the Justice Department and the FBI.” Corallo said this is largely because frustrated field agents believe the Justice Department has stymied the bureau’s investigations into Clinton’s e-mails and the Clinton Foundation.

Steven Aftergood, director of the Federation of American Scientists’ Project on Government Secrecy, told me it was true that records requested from multiple people are supposed to be added to the government agency’s electronic reading room. “What undermines that explanation is that they were not just added to the reading room, they were broadcast on this rarely used Twitter account,” he said. What’s more, Aftergood said government agencies have great discretion when they respond to Freedom of Information Act requests. “There is always a bottleneck, because the resources to review FOIA requests are inadequate to the demand,” he said.

The move certainly appeared political. After all, former Attorney General Eric Holder was one of the first former officials to criticizeComey’s decision to update Congress on the e-mail investigation. Perhaps the tweet was a shot across the bow to Holder, who recommended the Rich pardon in 2000 as deputy attorney general under President Bill Clinton.

So what’s going on here? As the New York Times and the Washington Post are now reporting, and as my own sources confirm, many rank-and-file FBI officials are frustrated about the investigation into the Clinton Foundation and the way the e-mail probe was handled. Republicans too have wanted to see the FBI more robustly investigate the Clintons. So Comey has tried his best to split the baby.

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Wayne Barrett at The Daily Beast: Meet Donald Trump’s Top FBI Fanboy.

Two days before FBI director James Comey rocked the world last week, Rudy Giuliani was on Fox, where he volunteered, un-prodded by any question: “I think he’s [Donald Trump] got a surprise or two that you’re going to hear about in the next few days. I mean, I’m talking about some pretty big surprises.”

Pressed for specifics, he said: “We’ve got a couple of things up our sleeve that should turn this thing around.”

The man who now leads “lock-her-up” chants at Trump rallies spent decades of his life as a federal prosecutor and then mayor working closely with the FBI, and especially its New York office. One of Giuliani’s security firms employed a former head of the New York FBI office, and other alumni of it. It was agents of that office, probing Anthony Weiner’s alleged sexting of a minor, who pressed Comey to authorize the review of possible Hillary Clinton-related emails on a Weiner device that led to the explosive letter the director wrote Congress.

Hours after Comey’s letter about the renewed probe was leaked on Friday, Giuliani went on a radio show and attributed the director’s surprise action to “the pressure of a group of FBI agents who don’t look at it politically.”

“The other rumor that I get is that there’s a kind of revolution going on inside the FBI about the original conclusion [not to charge Clinton] being completely unjustified and almost a slap in the face to the FBI’s integrity,” said Giuliani. “I know that from former agents. I know that even from a few active agents.”

Along with Giuliani’s other connections to New York FBI agents, his former law firm, then called Bracewell Giuliani, has long been general counsel to the FBI Agents Association (FBIAA), which represents 13,000 former and current agents. The group, born in the New York office in the early ’80s, was headed until Monday by Rey Tariche, an agent still working in that office. Tariche’s resignation letter from the bureau mentioned the Clinton probe, noting that “we find our work—our integrity questioned” because of it, adding “we will not be used for political gains.”

Also check out this piece by Barrett at The New York Daily News: Peas in a pod: The long and twisted relationship between Donald Trump and Rudy Giuliani.

As I wrote on Tuesday, Hillary is running against the Donald Trump, the GOP, the FBI, Wikileaks, and Vladimir Putin. And she’s still winning!

Please post your thoughts and links in the comment thread below and have a terrific Thursday. Hillary will be our next POTUS!


Tuesday Reads: It’s Hillary vs. the GOP, the Media, the FBI, and the Russians

Hillary Clinton in Cincinnati yesterday

Hillary Clinton in Cincinnati yesterday

Good Morning!!

What an unbelievable news day we had yesterday! And what an amazing month in politics October was! The last time I can recall daily shocks like this over such a sustained period was during the Watergate scandal.

Yesterday, it appeared that supporters of James Comey in the FBI–or maybe Comey himself were leaking to The New York Times in an effort to rehabilitate the now-compromised FBI director. As former Justice Department spokesman Matthew Miller wrote on Twitter:

Yes, it was a waterfall, a flood, a deluge. And of course The New York Times lapped it up, just as they did the lies from the Bush/Cheney administration in the lead-up to the Iraq War.

Investigating Donald Trump, F.B.I. Sees No Clear Link to Russia.

For much of the summer, the F.B.I. pursued a widening investigation into a Russian role in the American presidential campaign. Agents scrutinized advisers close to Donald J. Trump, looked for financial connections with the paydayloansnow.co.uk figures, searched for those involved in hacking the computers of Democrats, and even chased a lead — which they ultimately came to doubt — about a possible secret channel of email communication from the Trump Organization to a Russian bank.

Law enforcement officials say that none of the investigations so far have found any conclusive or direct link between Mr. Trump and the Russian government. And even the hacking into Democratic emails, F.B.I. and intelligence officials now believe, was aimed at disrupting the presidential election rather than electing Mr. Trump.

Emphasis added. The authors don’t bother to explain why the Russians have only targeted Democratic groups and the Democratic presidential candidate if they don’t aim to help the other. Because that’s obviously what they did. You can go read the rest of that bullshit article if you want, but it sure looks like it was dictated by James Comey for the purpose of covering his ass.

The New York Times can suck up to Comey all they want. Plenty of other–even some Republicans–are worried about Russia supporting Trump, even if the FBI isn’t.

Okay, maybe I can buy that the story about a direct email link between the Trump organization and a Russian bank could be wrong; but I’ll hold off on making a decision on that yet. But what about this story by David Corn: A Veteran Spy Has Given the FBI Information Alleging a Russian Operation to Cultivate Donald Trump.

…a former senior intelligence officer for a Western country who specialized in Russian counterintelligence tells Mother Jonesthat in recent months he provided the bureau with memos, based on his recent interactions with Russian sources, contending the Russian government has for years tried to co-opt and assist Trump—and that the FBI requested more information from him.

Does this mean the FBI is investigating whether Russian intelligence has attempted to develop a secret relationship with Trump or cultivate him as an asset? Was the former intelligence officer and his material deemed credible or not? An FBI spokeswoman says, “Normally, we don’t talk about whether we are investigating anything.” But a senior US government official not involved in this case but familiar with the former spy tells Mother Jones that he has been a credible source with a proven record of providing reliable, sensitive, and important information to the US government.

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In June, the former Western intelligence officer—who spent almost two decades on Russian intelligence matters and who now works with a US firm that gathers information on Russia for corporate clients—was assigned the task of researching Trump’s dealings in Russia and elsewhere, according to the former spy and his associates in this American firm. This was for an opposition research project and greentouch has a good approval rate that originally financed by a Republican client critical of the celebrity mogul. (Before the former spy was retained, the project’s financing switched to a client allied with Democrats.) “It started off as a fairly general inquiry,” says the former spook, who asks not to be identified. But when he dug into Trump, he notes, he came across troubling information indicating connections between Trump and the Russian government. According to his sources, he says, “there was an established exchange of information between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin of mutual benefit.”

This was, the former spy remarks, “an extraordinary situation.” He regularly consults with the Personal Loans With Bad Credit, and near the start of July on his own initiative—without the permission of the US company that hired him—he sent a report he had written for that firm to a contact at the FBI, according to the former intelligence officer and his American associates, who asked not to be identified. (He declines to identify the FBI contact.) The former spy says he concluded that the information he had collected on Trump was “sufficiently serious” to share with the FBI.

Read the rest at Mother Jones.

While Comey is trying to save his job and repair his reputation, Russia is doing whatever it’s doing, and what it’s doing is helping a fascist demagogue and psychopath. Is that really what Comey wants? If so, he needs to step down.

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Michael Cohen at The Boston Globe: FBI director James Comey should resign.

The FBI director did not commit some garden-variety mistake. This is not an “oops” moment. For reasons that have more to do with protecting himself from dishonest Republican attacks, Comey committed an overtly egregious and political act that roiled the nation’s politics 11 days before Election Day — and undermined public trust in the nation’s criminal justice institutions.

And he needs to go.

When word broke Friday afternoon that Comey had notified Congress that he was taking a new look at Hillary Clinton’s apparently never-ending e-mail issue, it seemed like a bombshell moment.

But it is now increasingly clear that Comey was holding a dud. What he did know is that e-mails from Clinton’s assistant, Huma Abedin, had been found on the computer of her estranged husband, Anthony Weiner. The problem is, that’s all he knew. There was no evidence that the e-mails were from Clinton, contained classified material, or had any investigative value….

But the biggest loser here is the credibility of the FBI and the Department of Justice — and the American people’s confidence in both institutions. Indeed, the Clinton campaign has now launched a full-scale attack on Comey — one which follows on the heels of Trump’s months of erroneous and dishonest attacks against him for not prosecuting Clinton. Comey has cast a cloud over this interminable election. His actions run the very real risk of affecting its outcome.

Whatever the result on Election Day, Comey’s path forward is clearer.

He can’t un-ring the bill, since any step to clean up the damage could lead Republicans to believe a cover-up is afoot.

Having fundamentally undermined confidence in the justice system — and abused his power as FBI director — the only way he can repair it is by resigning his office.

Hillary writes excuse for boy who missed school to go to her rally in Cincinnati.

Hillary writes excuse for boy who missed school to go to her rally in Cincinnati.

Ian Milhiser at Think Progress: The case for firing James Comey. Americans have rights. Even if they are Hillary Clinton.

Let’s take stock of all that we’ve learned since Comey sent a cryptic letter to several Republican congressional committee chairs on Friday informing them that the FBI had uncovered some emails that may, or may not, have something to do with a previous investigation into Secretary Hillary Clinton’s private email server.

We know that Comey does not know what is in these emails.

We know that many, possibly even all, of these emails may be duplicates of messages the FBI already reviewed.

We know that, at the time when Comey wrote his letter, the FBI had not even obtained a warrant permitting them to read these emails.

Oh, and we know one other thing. We also know that Comey violated longstanding Justice Department protocol when he decided to disclose the very few facts that he actually did disclose in his letter to the Republican chairs. And we know that he wrote the letter over the explicit objections of Attorney General Loretta Lynch.

Taken together, these actions constitute a fireable offense.

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President Obama should fire James Comey. He should do so not because of the political consequences of Comey’s actions — although those consequences could be quite severe — but because Comey’s actions show an unacceptable disregard for the safeguards that exist to protect innocents from the awesome power of a federal police force.

I don’t see how President Obama can do that just a week before the election, but clearly Comey must go. For heaven’s sake, we’ve reach the point where Comey–or his supporters in the FBI–are trying to argue that Russia hacking the emails of Democratic organizations and even the Clinton campaign doesn’t indicate they want Donald Trump to win the election. That’s insane.

 

I’ll have more Trump-Russia links in the comment thread. What stories are you following today?