Monday Reads: What Hath Newt Wrought?

Good Morning!!

How would you like to have to look at that poster until November? Well, quite a few of the pundits are now saying that it could happen. It’s still unlikely as of today, but it’s pretty clear the Republican base simply doesn’t like Mitt Romney, and the only other choices are a crazy old man, a guy who wants to ban birth control and divorce, and Newt Gingrich.

It’s not looking so good for Romney, unless he can start to connect better with Republican voters. He’s still the overall front runner, but if he can’t win big in Florida that could change. Unfortunately for Romney, there’s another debate tonight, and 88% of voters in SC said the debates were very influential in their voting decisions.

I’m fascinated by what is happening to the Republicans, and I spent quite a bit of time yesterday reading opinions on what Newt’s victory in South Carolina means and what might happen next. I thought this morning I’d share some of what I read with you.

Howard Fineman says the Republican race for the nomination will now last “forever, or at least until May.”

The GOP calendar this year is more spread out than it was four years ago, which means that the contest was going to last until at least late April even if Romney had buried Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul long ago. But now that South Carolina has given a boost to Gingrich — and a small but important cache of delegates — it’s clear how long the campaign will last….

Four years ago, nearly 60 percent of all delegates had been chosen by the end of February. Republican officials wanted to correct for that this time around, but they may have overdone it. This year a mere 15 percent of all delegates will have been chosen by the end of February — and even if there were a prohibitive frontrunner (which there is not), no one could mathematically wrap up the nomination before April 24.

Fineman explains that the states have different rules for apportioning delegates. South Carolina is winner take all in each Congressional district. New Hampshire is proportional, so right now Gingrich probably has more delegates than Romney. He suggests there could even be a floor fight at the Convention. And former RNC chairman Michael Steele agrees, saying there’s now a 50-50 chance of that happening.

At Real Clear Politics, Sean Trende writes:

There is no good news buried in here for Mitt Romney. None. As of this writing, Mitt Romney is leading in three counties in South Carolina: Charleston, Beaufort (Hilton Head) and Richland (Columbia). He lost fast-growing, coastal Horry County, home of Myrtle Beach, by 15 points. He lost Greenville and Spartanburg, in the upcountry, by similar margins. He lost Edgefield County by 40 points….

According to the exit polls, Romney lost among every major category of voter. The demographic groups he managed to win include those with postgraduate degrees (18 percent of the electorate), people earning $200,000 or more (5 percent), moderates (23 percent), non-evangelicals (35 percent), and pro-choicers (34 percent). None of the leads over Gingrich in these groups were particularly large.

He says Romney is no longer the inevitable nominee.

Simply put, there are very few states where he can perform among the major demographic groups the way he performed in South Carolina and still expect to win. And remember, this is still in many ways the electorate that selected Christine O’Donnell, Carl Paladino and Linda McMahon as its standard-bearers — in very blue states with relatively moderate GOP electorates, no less.

This vote was an utter repudiation of Romney, and it absolutely will be repeated in state after state if something doesn’t change the basic dynamic of the race. It is true that Gingrich doesn’t have funds or organization, but he gets a ton of free media from the debates, and he has an electorate that simply wants someone other than Romney.

Trende says there about a 35% chance that Romney could lose the nomination now. It turns out that Romney did get some delegates from SC–a total of 2 out of the total of 25. That’s pretty pathetic.

Read the rest of this entry »


Iran and nukes

I agree. Iran should not have nuclear weapons.

Neither should China, Russia, North Korea, Britain, France, the US, India, Pakistan, or Israel.

Hello? Those things are either bad, or they aren’t. What kind of quadruple standard are we using here? And don’t tell me that it’s different when sensible countries, who would never actually use mass death against civilians, have them.

Only one country has used nuclear weapons to mass murder civilians. And it currently has more of the things than anyone else and shows no sign of thinking that’s a bad idea.

Could we just tell the truth? Nobody wants Iran to get more power. Iran, on the other hand, does want more power. If you want to stop them, just say so. Enough of this sanctimonious dogwash.

Crossposted from Acid Test


Gabrielle Giffords, you are beautiful….

Gabrielle Giffords has announced she is stepping down:

Continued healing and strength to Gabby…she is a beautiful, inspiring woman.


NARAL Wants to End the War on Women

NARAL President Nancy Keenan has written an op-ed at HuffPo calling 2011 the Year of the War on Women.  She argues that we have the responsibility to stop that war in 2012. We have had a tremendous number of front page posts here at Sky Dancer that have outlined the assault on women’s rights through out the year.  This has generally come from the Christofascist arm of the American Right Wing.  There are many religious extremists in this country that would impose their narrow views of science, medicine, and women on us all.  Keenan’s article is a good reminder of the many individual posts that we’ve had listing these outrages.

Anti-choice politicians ignored the American people’s call to focus on jobs and the economy, and instead made attacking a woman’s right to make personal, private medical decisions one of their “highest legislative priorities.”

The U.S. House of Representatives held more choice-related votes in 2011 than in any year since 2000, and states enacted 69 anti-choice measures — one shy of the record number set in 1999.

In the more than 30 years I’ve spent defending a woman’s right to choose, I can’t recall a time when politicians have been more out of touch with our nation’s values and priorities.

And we’re not out of the woods yet. The very same politicians behind the War on Women are ready to resume the legislative attacks in 2012 here in Washington, D.C. and in state legislatures throughout the country.

America’s pro-choice majority will have to prepare itself for yet another year of attacks on everything from women’s insurance coverage of abortion to public funding for birth control and cancer screenings.

She concludes that it’s important for us to turn out at the voting booth. She pays close attention to the views of candidates Romney and President Obama but also notes that many Senate and House seats are important too.  I’ve mentioned frequently that the only thing that may get me out to vote for Mary Landrieu is my fear of another David Vitter.  She argues for the few things that the Obama administration has done in support of reproductive rights. She appears to overlook the things that he did not do and the oddly worded defenses–which seems to support a committee of deciders of women’s fate–on the basic status of the American woman as an adult, as a complete and free person, and a moral decision maker.

So, we have quite the contrast to make, as all the Republican presidential candidates oppose a woman’s right to choose.

That includes Gov. Romney, the current frontrunner.

Romney wants to see Roe v. Wade overturned, and threatens to “eliminate Title X family-planning programs,” which include federal funding for birth control and cancer screenings. As Massachusetts governor, he even vetoed a bill giving rape survivors information about and timely access to emergency contraception.

The difference between Gov. Romney’s record on contraception and President Obama’s couldn’t be starker.

Furthermore, the Obama administration resisted pressure from anti-contraception groups to allow many employers, including universities and hospitals, to refuse to cover birth control. As a result, millions of Americans will get access to contraception — and they will not have to ask their bosses for permission.

We’ll work day-in and day-out to make sure these key women voters — and all voters — know that Gov. Romney is far outside the American mainstream when it comes to choice.

President Obama has not been an advocate for the rights of women. He tends to follow the lead of his cabinet on taking positions.  If it were not for some of the women in his cabinet–notably Hillary Clinton–and a few other women in congress, I doubt he’d have put up much of a fuss over anything that crossed his policy agenda that circumvented the civil rights of women.  I’ve been frequently confused on what his priorities have been, but I do know that protecting the rights have women have not been high among them.

So, once again, I face these major women’s groups who show me the Devil residing in the 10th ring of Hell and ask me to support the Demon residing on the 8th because there’s a stark difference between the 8th and 10th rings of hell.  We’re supposed to appreciate the scraps we’ve been thrown and continue to vote for the lesser of evils.   We’re supposed to just hope that a person who unenthusiastically will sign the occasional defensive position will represent us as the crusade rolls on.

If this is indeed a war–and I do agree with Nancy Keenan on that characterization–then we need unreluctant warriors who will stand up and fight for the civil rights of all citizens.  We need leaders that will recognize and verbalize the assault on our civil liberties and rights. The religious occupation of government is being led by a group of crazed crusaders.  They are no less militant then their hysterical Islamic counterparts in the Middle East.  Our own religious extremists have flown jet liners into the very heart of our constitution. They cheer for the blood of the uninsured. They clap for the racist dog whistle begging for the reinstatement of confederate sins. They boo war heroes simply because of the hero’s source of love.  They even boo the Golden Rule which should form the heart of their own convictions.  The end of foodstamps and birth control seems to be their 72 virgins.

If the president expects to get my vote, then he better articulate the battle plan and actions necessary to stop the assault on our rights within our society.  The last three years have been far too much compromise of things that are important for the donor class.  I am not black or Hispanic, but I would like to add that there is an assault on access to voting and treatment of immigrants.  There has been a less than strong commitment to these civil rights and liberties too.  The assault on the GLBT community continues even with the removal of DADT.  These are all the poisonous fruits of the same bad seeds.  There is no compromising with fanatics.  The president should demonstrate his commitment to those of us that face unprecedented rollbacks of our civil rights and civil liberties if he truly expects our vote.  I’m frankly tired of lip service and table scraps.


Live Blog: South Carolina Republican Primary

Here we go folks! It looks like Mitt Romney is about to get an a$$ whipping. Newt Gingrich’s ego is going to fill the whole room tonight. I don’t think I can face listening to his speech. I still say Romney is going to be the nominee, but I’m glad things are getting a little more interesting.

The South Carolina polls close at 7PM, so in just a short time, we’ll start getting exit poll results. Judging by the talking heads on MSNBC, I’d say Newt is going to win pretty big. But we’ll know soon.

Here are a few recent headlines to hold you till we start getting results.

Buzzfeed: BYU Students Bus In To South Carolina To Rally For Romney

Politico: South Carolina Republican primary: 5 things to watch

CBS News: South Carolina primary exit polls: 2/3rds say debates mattered

Fox News: Gingrich, Romney close South Carolina fight with taunts

Washington Post: How Newt Gingrich’s past marriages may be helping him in SC

What are you hearing? Let us know in the comments!