Economist Heidi Shierholz: “There’s never been a pool of missing workers this large”

Economics isn’t my area of expertise, but I can read, and the top story at Huffpo right now is pretty disturbing. Author Lila Shapiro spoke to some economists, including Heidi Shierholz, about the December jobs report, which came out today.

Although the unemployment rate fell to 9.4 percent from 9.8 percent in December, bringing the total number of officially unemployed Americans to 14.5 million, only 103,000 jobs were added in December according to the Labor Department’s BLS report — a number significantly lower than expected. (The Wall Street Journal reported that many Wall Street analysts were predicting “at or above 200,000” new jobs.)

The news gets worse: less than half of the drop in unemployment rate can be attributed to new job creation — the other half came from 260,000 Americans who have dropped out of the labor force altogether.

This brings the percentage of Americans who are either employed or actively looking for work down to 64.3 percent, what economist Heidi Shierholz calls “a stunning new low for the recession.”

[….]

“We have now added jobs every single month for a year,” Schierholz said. “So you would think that there would be labor force growth, these missing workers starting to come back in. Not only is that not happening, it’s actually starting to go in the other direction. There’s never been a pool of missing workers this large. It’s not clear to me when they’ll come back.”

That can’t be good, no matter what the White House and CNN try to get us to swallow.

At the Wall Street Journal the reaction to the jobs report doesn’t make things sound much better. One headline reads: Markets Whipsawed After Jobs Report. Here’s the gist:

Investors hoped that the jobs report would confirm expectations that a robust recovery was finally filtering through to long-stagnated labor markets. But after traders positioned aggressively this week on lofty expectations of a strong payrolls figure, the disappointing data had a relatively muted impact.

[….]

The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy created 103,000 new positions last month, far below market consensus expectations for a 150,000 gain. In November, the economy added 39,000 jobs. The unemployment rate fell sharply to 9.4% from 9.7%.

Sustainable job creation has been elusive in an economy that is still recovering from the 2008 financial crisis. As a result of the troubled job market, analysts think the Federal Reserve is likely to continue full steam ahead with its controversial $600 billion plan to reinflate the economy.

Dakinikat can give us her expert take on this, but as a layperson, I think it’s obvious that the country is on the wrong track and some one needs to light a fire under the President and his incompetent economic advisers.

HEY VILLAGERS! WE NEED JOBS!!!


Monday Reads

good morning!!

There’s another Wikileaks release on BP, Gitmo, and BOA on deck.  I’m dying to get my hands on the BP and the Bank of America data drop.  Right now, they’ve been sorted out to various people to publish should Assange disappear or meet some other bad end.  This has all the stuff of a real good IRL thriller and I’m just gleeful about it all.

That’s probably going to hit some time this week and will shoot to the top of the news.

This is from The NY Post.

The military papers on Guantanamo Bay, yet to be published, believed to have been supplied by Bradley Manning, who was arrested in May. Other documents that Assange is confirmed to possess include an aerial video of a US airstrike in Afghanistan that killed civilians, BP files and Bank of America documents.

We will do a live blog as the information becomes available.  You can also find a teaser on Fox News. Additionally, there’s an interesting bit up at the UK Guardian on the Chinese Government hacking Google.  Both of these come via Memeorandum.

The hacking of Google that forced the search engine to withdraw from mainland China was orchestrated by a senior member of the communist politburo, according to classified information sent by US diplomats to Hillary Clinton’s state department in Washington.

The leading politician became hostile to Google after he searched his own name and found articles criticising him personally, leaked cables from the US embassy in Beijing say.

That single act prompted a politically inspired assault on Google, forcing it to “walk away from a potential market of 400 million internet users” in January this year, amid a highly publicised row about internet censorship.

The explosive allegation that the attack on Google came from near the top of the Communist party has never been made public until now. The politician allegedly collaborated with a second member of the politburo in an attempt to force Google to drop a link from its Chinese-language search engine to its uncensored google.com version.

There’s more interesting tidbits up at the Daily Mail.

UK firm Rolls-Royce lost out on a £200million contract to supply helicopter engines to Spain after the U.S. lobbied Prime Minister Jose Luis Zapatero in Madrid. The deal was eventually signed by American company GE.

And European Union President Herman Van Rompuy told a U.S. ambassador that European troops were still in Afghanistan only ‘out of deference’ to America.

I’m sure the mothers and fathers and wives and husbands and sons and daughters of those dead European Troops certainly appreciate the ‘deference’ statement.  Whoa!

Here’s a really interesting link at The Economist.   I have to admit that I have a fairly limited attention span for management professors since I’m of the school that says you either got it or your don’t, but Henry Mintzberg who is Cleghorn Professor of Management Studies at McGill University had me reading from the headline forward.

Too many corporate “leaders” have trashed their enterprises, taking with them America’s legendary sense of enterprise. The scorekeepers cannot fix that. To understand the basis for such a sweeping claim, add up the stories you have heard about the goings on in so many of the largest American enterprises. Then you may get it.

Get it, not just about the scandal of executive compensation, but also about its destructive consequences. Any chief executive who accepts a compensation package that so singles him or herself out from everyone else in the company is not a leader. Leadership is about conveying signals that engage other people in the company. How many leaders are left among America’s large enterprises? There is an Israeli expression that a fish rots from the head down. So too does an enterprise.

Many economists and journalists see the CEO as the be-all and end-all of corporate success. The worst CEOs believe it. They thus allow themselves to be paid accordingly to “shareholder value”, which is a fancy term for increases in the price of a company’s stock.

There are two basic ways to increase the price of the stock: by exploring and by exploiting. Explorer companies achieve this by doing better research, making improved products, and offering superior service. This is hard work, and it takes time. Exploiter companies have it easier: they depreciate the brand, cut investments in research, confuse the customers with bamboozle pricing, and stay as close as possible to the letter of the law while lobbying politicians to reduce its level. These behaviors can raise the price of the stock long enough for the executives to cash in their bonuses and run, as have so many in the large American companies.

It’s typical management professor talk, but the point that he makes that CEOS are way too often part of the problem and not part of the future or solutions is true.  They are still way over compensated for wrecking companies.

So, here’s a suggestion from the NYT: Cleopatra’s Guide to Good Governance.  Hey, I’m willing to look at Cleopatra as a role model.  Cleopatra as the ultimate central banker?

Egypt’s economic affairs were dismal when Cleopatra ascended to the throne. She devalued the currency by a third. She issued no gold and critically lowered the value of her kingdom’s silver. And she ushered in a great innovation: she introduced coins of various denominations. In an early prefiguring of paper currency, the markings rather than the metal content determined their value. A coin might feel light in the hand, but if Cleopatra said it was worth 80 drachmae, it was worth 80 drachmae. The arrangement was both lucrative to her and encouraged an export-driven economy.

Oh, well, back to the present and our central banker. I’m not sure if you caught the 60 Minutes segment on Ben Bernanke, but if you didn’t, here’s the transcript. You will also find taped interviews at the site.  Here’s Bernanke’s take on employment.

Chairman Ben Bernanke: The unemployment rate is just not going down. Unemployment is just about the same as it was in mid-2009, when the economy started growing. So, that’s a major concern. And it looks that at current rates, that it may take some years before the unemployment rate is back down to more normal levels.

Scott Pelley: We lost about eight million jobs from the peak. And I wonder how many years you think it will be before we get all those jobs back?

Bernanke: Well, you’re absolutely right. Between the peak and the end of last year, we lost eight and a half million jobs. We’ve only gotten about a million of them back so far. And that doesn’t even account the new people coming into the labor force. At the rate we’re going, it could be four, five years before we are back to a more normal unemployment rate. Somewhere in the vicinity of say five or six percent.

Four or five years. And Bernanke told “60 Minutes” something else that makes that even more painful.

Bernanke: The other aspect of the unemployment rate that really concerns me is that more than 40 percent of the unemployed have been unemployed for six months or more. And that’s unusually high. And people who are unemployed for such a long time, their skills erode. Their attachment to the labor force diminishes and it may be a very, very long time before they find themselves back in a normal working position.

Bernanke seems to be about the only person within the beltway who cares about the level of  unemployment  This bit from Bloomberg indicates he’s willing to take more steps because he believes that those in charge of fiscal policy will not do the right thing.

Bernanke and other Fed officials have defended the central bank’s announcement that it will purchase $75 billion in Treasury securities a month through June to prop up a recovery so weak that only 39,000 jobs were created in November. The unemployment rate last month rose to 9.8 percent, the highest level since April, the Labor Department said on Dec. 3, three days after the Bernanke interview.

The economy, which grew 2.5 percent in the third quarter, is so weak that Bernanke said growth could fizzle out without support. “It’s very close to the border,” he said. “It takes about 2.5 percent growth just to keep unemployment stable and that’s about what we’re getting. We’re not very far from the level where the economy is not self-sustaining.”

I’m not sure people know exactly how odd it is for a FED chair to say this and what it means to say that the “we’re not very far from a level where the economy is not self-sustaining”, but let me tell you it’s rare and alarming. Washington is playing parlor games and our lives are their pinatas.

In some ways it seems we’re very much on the verge of a much worse recession because things are no longer emanating from the financial markets.

Two Republicans, Tennessee Senator Bob Corker and Indiana Representative Mike Pence, last month proposed removing the Fed’s maximum employment mandate to focus the central bank on stable prices alone. Corker plans to introduce such legislation next year.

Bernanke said fears of inflation are “overstated” and that keeping consumer prices under control isn’t a diminished priority for the Fed.

The rate of inflation has slowed this year, with the personal consumption expenditures index, excluding food and energy, rising at a 0.9 percent annual pace in October, the slowest in 50 years. Including all items, the index increased 1.3 percent.

Without action by the central bank, the economy might have tipped into a period of deflation, or a prolonged drop in prices, Bernanke said.

I cannot emphasize enough that no matter what these people say to appeal to your inner demons, there is no problem with inflation and we desperately need stimulus for demand.  Sustaining tax cuts at the very high levels will not do it because rich people simply do not spend money like poor people do.  Additionally, more foreclosures will not help the housing market and loss of jobs will not help the economies of states.  I cannot believe that after so much information coming from the last 60 years that we still have to have these conversations.

Here’s an interesting piece from Medical Daily: People with a university degree fear death less than those at a lower literacy level.  Since I’m not the psychologist on board at Sky Dancing.  I’ll leave the explanations to Dr. BostonBoomer.

People with a university degree fear death less than those at a lower literacy level. In addition, fear of death is most common among women than men, which affects their children’s perception of death. In fact, 76% of children that report fear of death is due to their mothers avoiding the topic. Additionally, more of these children fear early death and adopt unsuitable approaches when it comes to deal with death.

I’m not sure you want to hear this news from NPR, but it is what it is:  Gingrich: A Run For President Is ‘Doable’.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich says he’s more inclined to run for president in 2012 than not to make a bid.

Gingrich says he probably won’t make a decision until late February or early March. But he says that talking to friends and thinking about such an undertaking have made him more inclined to believe that “it’s doable.”

We are so f’d.

What’s on your reading and blogging list this morning?

Is Joblessness the new Normal?

Why is it that every one in Washington DC is focused on the economic well being of about 2% of U.S. Households?  That’s the number of U.S. households that that were expected by the IRS to make greater than $250k AGI in 2009.  Why aren’t they paying attention to the number of unemployed?

The new jobless figures are out today.  They’re no surprise to  me and a lot of other economists.  However, the worsening job situation keeps going right over the heads of nearly every one on capitol hill. Worse, the only economic policy–that coming from the FED–that shows any recognition of and response to the situation is coming under attack by the right wing and libertarian propaganda machines.  Read this and realize what anemic job growth this country is experiencing.  We are in the Dubya  2 economy.

In a jolting surprise to the economic recovery and market expectations, the United States economy added just 39,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent, according to the Department of Labor.

November’s number was nowhere near enough to help the large ranks of the unemployed, and was far below analysts’ consensus forecast of close to 150,000 jobs and an unchanged jobless rate of 9.6 percent. More than 15 million people remain out of work, and 6.3 million of them have been unemployed for six months or longer.

The monthly snapshot of the job market could lend more support to the suggestion by the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, that the government continue to stimulate the economy, as well as the Obama administration’s call for an extension of unemployment benefits. The apparent loss of hiring momentum may also fuel the debate over whether the government should take aggressive steps to reduce the deficit in the near term or wait until the economy returns to better health.

There’s a good article up by Catherine Rampell–also from the NYT–on the face and features of long term unemployment.  That would be those folks that are labeled by the likes of Ralph Reed as unwilling to find jobs and happy living off of $200 to $300 a week.  The article is called: ‘The New Poor: Unemployed, and Likely to Stay that Way’.  These are the people whose lives hang like political pinatas from the ceiling of the Senate chamber.  How long will they suffer from Republican Fairy Tales and the unwillingness of Democrats to stay up for what is right?

This country has some of the highest levels of long-term unemployment — out of work longer than six months — it has ever recorded. Meanwhile, job growth has been, and looks to remain, disappointingly slow, indicating that those out of work for a while are likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. Even if the government report on Friday shows the expected improvement in hiring by business, it will not be enough to make a real dent in those totals.

So the legions of long-term unemployed will probably be idle for significantly longer than their counterparts in past recessions, reducing their chances of eventually finding a job even when the economy becomes more robust.

Steven Benen from the Washington Monthly sums up the likely political response vs. the necessary one.

If our political system were sane, awful news like this would be a much-needed wake-up call that would spur policymakers to action. There would be an immediate drive on the part of Congress and the White House to do far more to stimulate the economy, inject more capital into the system, and invest in job-creation measures immediately.

Instead, Americans just elected a new House majority that is prepared to do the exact opposite — taking money out of the economy, scrapping economic stimulus, and ignoring all job-creation measures. Voters were angry about the economy last month, and in a tragic irony, elected people intent on making the economy worse.

The majority in this country has elected people ‘intent on making the economy worse’ and a president who is likely to enable them.  Read this headline at WAPO: ‘Obama, GOP in quiet talks to extend tax cuts’. Extending tax cuts to the richest people in this country is an unfunded mandate of  $700 billion a year.  This a priority when the same party is whining about the deficit?  It is clear that most of Washington is only concerned about the deficit when it doesn’t impact their constituencies and the poor, middle class, and unemployed seem to be the constituency of no one.We only deliver frantic votes that are ignored and misinterpreted.

The White House and congressional Republicans have begun working behind the scenes toward a broad deal that would prevent taxes from going up for virtually every U.S. family and authorize billions of dollars in fresh spending to bolster the economy.

Negotiations have accelerated in recent days as Congress has confronted deadlines for extending a series of tax cuts that expire at the end of the month, renewing emergency jobless benefits and keeping the government funded into next year.

The talks mark the dawn of a new era on Capitol Hill, with resurgent Republicans holding far more leverage and commanding a more prominent role in crafting legislation. The private discussions, which parallel a more public set of talks, have left many Democrats grousing that President Obama is being too quick to accommodate his adversaries, who are still a month away from taking control of the House and expanding their presence in the Senate.

These “grousing” Democrats are the same ones that blew a huge majority and mandate on passing Dole/Romney Care instead of taking care of the economy right from the beginning.  They were also the crowd that passed stimulus spending that was inadequate and loaded with pork pies meant to stimulate a few at the expense of the many.

So, now folks like Senator Harkin find their Democratic Voice?  When they face the steam roller straight on?  This dandy quote is from HuffPo.

Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-N.J.), for one, slyly acknowledged that he’d get himself in trouble if he answered whether or not he was happy with the administration’s engagement.

“You want me to be the [troublemaker]?… I’m too junior around here to do that,” said the 86-year-old, five-term senator.

Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) did a little less dancing. “I just think, if [Obama] caves on this, then I think that he’s gonna have a lot of swimming upstream [to do],” said the Iowa Democrat, a unabashed progressive who has been less reticent than most in criticizing the White House. “He campaigned on [allowing the rates for the rich to expire], was very strong on that, and sometimes there are things that are just worth fighting for.”

And if he decided to compromise away from that, a reporter asked the senator.

“He would then just be hoping and praying that Sarah Palin gets the nomination,” Harkin replied, insinuating that there would be few other Republicans that Obama could assuredly beat in 2012.

Oh, great!  We’re facing down a 10% unemployment rate with historic long term unemployment and all they can think about is the 2012 elections?  We are so f’d.


Saturday Reads

Good Morning!!

President Obama has left the country again. He was in Lisbon today for a NATO meeting, at which the organization agreed to build a missile shield, and they hope that Russia will go along with it too.

In general, senior NATO officials note a welcoming Russian tone under President Dmitri A. Medvedev to the idea of cooperation with NATO on missile defense and European security, and they also note the general silence of Mr. Putin, now prime minister.

On Saturday, Russia will be formally invited to take part in the missile defense system, especially with intelligence and radar sharing. Moscow has indicated that it is interested but has questions, and wants to ensure that the system is not aimed at countering Russian missiles.

The missile defense system approved Friday is different from the fixed-missile defense that President George W. Bush initiated and that proved controversial. The idea is to have a phased system of radars and antimissile missiles that would be less expensive than the Bush system. The NATO spokesman, James Appathurai, said the nearly $1.5 billion cost could be managed over 10 years.

Plenty of money for missile defense that probably won’t work, but nothing for the desperate long-term unemployed.

In one of his many bad decisions, President Obama invited Skeltor Alan Simpson back out of obscurity, and we may never get rid of him. With his latest pronouncement, he has moved way beyond inappropriate to sociopathic.

He predicted a government that approaches shutdown in April of next year.

“This is going to be beautiful politics – The brutal kind,” he told reporters in Washington at a forum put on by the Christian Science Monitor. “I love those,” he said, with a twinkle in his eye and a jokester tinge to his voice.

“The debt limit, when it comes in April or May, will prove who’s a hero and who’s a jerk and who’s a charlatan and who’s a faqir,” said Simpson. “And there it will be right there. Because they’re going to say, these new guys, some of them, and I’ve met a good deal of them and boy they’re sharp cookies,” he said, adding a message to new Congressmen.

“Compromise is not a filthy word,” said Simpson. “It doesn’t mean you’re a wimp when you learn to compromise. You either learn to compromise and legislate or go home – my personal view – anyway there they are and they’re going to say I will not vote for the debt limit extension until you cut this. Say, you can’t do that. you can’t possibly do that. well, then I’m not voting for it. and they’ll say well the government will close. Which they’ll say that’s what I came here for. Oh, I can’t wait. It’ll be something and I’ll be watching.”

You can watch it at the Christian Science Monitor site.

If only there really were a hell so Alan Simpson could spend eternity there.

Ezra Klein is thinking along the same lines as Simpson, but makes more of an effort to sound reasonable. He says Democrats should trade an extension of the Bush tax cuts to the rich for Republican votes to extend unemployment benefits and increase the debt ceiling when the time comes.

Ezra must have learned bargaining strategy from that great bipartisan choker compromiser Barack Obama.

Elsewhere in The Washington Post is the story of “one family’s plunge from the middle class into poverty.”

Walker used to make $100,000 a year as a nursing home executive until she lost her job a year and a half ago. Unable to find a new one, she shed her business suits and high heels and put on an apron and soft-soled shoes. This year, she and her daughter are living on $11,000: her unemployment benefits plus whatever she can earn selling home-cooked dinners for $10 apiece….

The Census Bureau recently reported that the poverty rate in the United States rose to 14.3 percent last year, the highest level in more than 50 years.

Texas and Florida saw the most people fall below the line. In Florida alone, 323,000 people became newly poor last year, bringing the state’s poverty total to 2.7 million.

The numbers tell another tale as well: Nationwide, in black households such as Walker’s, income plunged an average of 4.4 percent in 2009, almost three times the drop among whites. The number of blacks living below the official poverty line – $21,756 for a family of four – increased by 7 percent in just one year.

Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles, co-chairs of the Catfood Commission, should be forced to read this article, memorize it, and then write on a blackboard 1,000 times, “I am a damn fool who knows nothing about economics.”

At Counterpunch, Alexander Cockburn thinks “it’s time for a real mutiny.”

So much for 2010 as the year of mutiny, when the American people rose up and said, “Enough! Throw the bums out!” As the dust finally clears after the midterm elections, and the bodies are hauled from the field of battle, guess what? It was all so predictable. The safest thing to be in 2010 was an incumbent.

Out of 435 seats, 351 incumbents will be returning to the House in January. In the Senate, out of 100 seats, 77 incumbents will return in January. As the libertarian Joel Hirschorn puts it, “Welcome back to the reality of America’s delusional democracy where career politicians will continue to foster a corrupt, inefficient and dysfunctional government because that is what the two-party plutocracy and its supporters want for their own selfish reasons.”

What will Dear Leader do next?

Already there are the omens of a steady stream of concessions by Obama to the right.

There’s hardly any countervailing pressure for him to do otherwise. The president has no fixed principles of political economy, and who is at his elbow in the White House? Not the Labor Secretary, Hilda Solis. Not that splendid radical Elizabeth Warren, whose Consumer Financial Protection Bureau the Republicans are already scheduling for destruction. Next to Obama is Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, the bankers’ lapdog, whom the president holds in high esteem….

Two more years, of the same downward slide, courtesy of bipartisanship and “working together”? No way. Enough of dreary predictability. Let’s have a real mutiny against Obamian rightward drift. The time is not six months or a year down the road. The time is now.

But who will lead the charge?

Dakinikat turned me on to this article about Obama’s Asian trip: Asia After Obama, by Brahma Chellaney

Significantly, Obama restricted his tour to Asia’s leading democracies – India, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea – which surround China and are central to managing its rise. Yet he spent all of last year assiduously courting the government in Beijing in the hope that he could make China a global partner on issues ranging from climate change to trade and financial regulation. The catchphrase coined by US Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg in relation to China, “strategic reassurance,” actually signaled America’s intent to be more accommodating toward China’s ambitions.

Now, with his China strategy falling apart, Obama is seeking to do exactly what his predecessor attempted – to line up partners as an insurance policy in case China’s rising power slides into arrogance. Other players on the grand chessboard of Asian geopolitics also are seeking to formulate new equations, as they concurrently pursue strategies of hedging, balancing, and bandwagoning.

Once again, Obama plays the role of Bush III.

At Truthdig, I learned that David Sirota has found a new hero to replace his now tarnished idol Barack Obama. These days Sirota is bragging about hanging with cut rate Rolling Stone gonzo writer Matt Taibbi.

Sirota reminds me of that little dog Chester in the Looney Tunes cartoons–the one that idolizes the big bulldog Spike. Chester jumps around Butch, trying to get his attention, praising him, agreeing with him; and when Spike brushes him aside, he just keeps coming back for more. Sirota:

Over drinks in my living room, Taibbi and I pondered the financial Masters of the Universe and their maddening infallibility. I asked him why they never fear facing legal consequences. Do they believe they’re untouchable? Or do they know law enforcement won’t pursue them?

“They’re not afraid because other than Bernie Madoff, when was the last time someone on Wall Street faced any real punishment?” he responded. “Sure, a few go to jail once in a while, but they’re usually out in a few months and then on the speaking circuit. That’s not exactly a deterrent against bad behavior that’s making you millions.”

Deterrence—it’s the vaunted idea behind “tough on crime” sentences for violent offenses. Lock the door, throw away the key, and the theory says that heinous acts will be prevented.

Duh! I think Sirota wrote this piece just so everyone would know he’s pals with Taibbi.

Since it’s Saturday Morning….

What’s on your reading menu this morning?


Economic Fairy Tales and other Bed time stories

One of the things that grew out of the Reagan years was a set of myths. Primary among them were economic myths. The first one was that the country was overtaxed. The second was that there was no particular useful role for government. The third was a revival of our country’s Puritan ethos. None of these were particularly helpful and all of them were put to death–in short order–during the Clinton years by theory and empirics. Well, they were put to death by every one but those that rely on faith and ideology rather than theory and data. I see a revival of these myths in the signs of tea partiers. The tea party folks realize we’re losing our way of life. The problem is they are so angry they are looking to Reagan Fairy tales for answers. Republicans and Blue dawgs are playing those fears like magical harps. Fairy tales calm children’s fears, but they do not solve real problems.

A really good example of a stupid hypothesis in Reagan’s VooDoo economics that was soundly put to death by empirics was the Laffer curve.(That was the basis of the argument that we’re overtaxed.) However, I do know some one that has to rely on old articles to bring this ‘view point’ into his classroom. No matter how many ways I insist that it’s not our job to bring failed hypotheses to students he still keeps clapping for this very dead Tinkerbell. He wants to believe he’s over taxed no matter what the data says and I haven’t seen him for awhile but I have no doubt he’s participating in whatever passes for a tea party up in his rural part of Washington.

Paul Krugman’s hair is on fire about the Austerity Myth today. He’s not the only one. Here’s something from The Economist with the same urgency on the international scale called the Austerity Alarm. These articles seem even more prescient given the news about unemployment today. The U.S. economy is not creating jobs. It’s still losing them in large numbers. The economy lost 125,000  jobs last month. The previous dips in the unemployment rate seem to have come from part time Census worker jobs. This one comes from people giving up so they’re not counted. I warned 1 1/2 years ago that the Porkulus bill was not concentrating spending on the right things and too full of useless tax cuts. Surprise! Surprise! Job creation remains elusive. Mortgage rates are at record lows and without bribes to first time buyers, the housing market–perhaps the most central element of the American Dream Fairy tale–looks like a lost market. So, the best our leaders can do in response to all of this is reheat policies that failed during the Hoover Administration.

As Krugman points out, the U.S. and nearly all the world’s economies remain in a deep recession, so why are all the leaders talking about austerity programs and acting like the big issue is that some imaginary set of investors will treat them like Greece if they act responsibly? Why are they repeating the policies that made the Great Depression worse to begin with and then the policies that turned the recovery of the mid thirties into a double dip depression?

Krugman suggests that it’s the power of the village that keeps churning out the myth. It’s not the village economists that embrace this fairy tale. It is our village idiots and unfortunately, they seem to be in charge of economic policy these days. This is not to deny that the U.S. has long term budget problems. Demographics are presenting serious problems to both Social Security and Medicare. Both need to be revamped to meet future commitments. Revamping, however, does not mean tearing down all the buildings in the village to stop one fire from spreading.

So the next time you hear serious-sounding people explaining the need for fiscal austerity, try to parse their argument. Almost surely, you’ll discover that what sounds like hardheaded realism actually rests on a foundation of fantasy, on the belief that invisible vigilantes will punish us if we’re bad and the confidence fairy will reward us if we’re good. And real-world policy — policy that will blight the lives of millions of working families — is being built on that foundation.

So Krugman is a liberal and of course, the argument against him is that all we liberals believe is that the our big daddy government will get us out of trouble. So, why is the same argument coming from The Economist whose subtitle to their op-ed piece reads “Both sides in the row over stimulus v austerity exaggerate, but the austerity lobby is the more dangerous”. They are hardly a bastion of liberal thinkers and they call the austerity hawkers dangerous.

The austerity fad is also distorting politicians’ priorities. Many European governments, for instance, are fixated on cutting their deficits, when they should also be trying harder to shake up their labour and product markets. A new analysis by the IMF suggests that fiscal austerity coupled with structural reforms would yield far higher growth than austerity alone. In America the new deficit-focused climate is preventing politicians from passing a temporary (and sensible) fiscal stimulus package without inducing them to tackle the sources of the country’s huge medium-term deficit by, for instance, reforming social security. The result probably won’t be another Hooveresque Depression. But it could be a recovery that is weaker and slower than it should have been.

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