Thursday Reads: Polls, Polls, Polls!

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Good Morning!!

In just 12 days, the election will be over and Hillary will be on the way to becoming our first woman POTUS. I can’t wait to vote for her! And yes, I’m convinced she will win. Very soon, that glass ceiling is going to shatter into a million pieces, and Donald Trump will be headed for more embarrassing failures with ruined brand.

Huffington Post Associate Polling Editor Janie Valencia: The Polls — All Of Them — Show Hillary Clinton Leading. Which means Donald Trump is losing.

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton is either slightly ahead or way ahead of Republican Donald Trump with just 13 days until Election Day, according to new polls released Wednesday.

An AP-GFK poll shows Clinton leading by an astonishing 14 points, 51 percent to Trump’s 37 percent, in a four-way race. In a two-way heat, Clinton’s lead narrows to 13 points.

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A new Fox News poll finds Clinton ahead by a much smaller margin― just 3 points ahead in a four-way race, 44 percent to 41 percent. She also leads by 3 points head to head with Trump.

Other recent polls show Clinton with a lead ranging from 2 points to 12 points.

It’s best not to freak out just yet over which of Wednesday’s polls are right.http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/27/upshot/pennsylvania-poll.html?_r=0 Instead, consider the aggregate of recent polls for a more sober look at the race.

According to the HuffPost Pollster aggregate, Clinton is leading by about 7 points in the four-way race, 46.6 percent to 39 percent.

Here’s a new national poll, out this morning: Clinton nearly doubles lead over Trump in latest CNBC survey.

With only a dozen days to go before the election, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has ratcheted up her lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump to 9 points, according to the latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey, nearly doubling her advantage from the last poll.

After weeks and months of what many Republican strategists called verbal and strategic missteps by Trump, and despite potentially ruinous revelations from leaked Clinton campaign emails, the Democrat leads the Republican nominee by 46 percent to 37 percent among registered voters in a two-way race and by the same margin among likely voters. In June, Clinton led by just 5 points.

The CNBC survey of 804 Americans around the country, including all age and income groups, was conducted by Hart Research Associates on the Democratic side and Public Opinion Strategies on the Republican side. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points, meaning Clinton’s lead could be as large as 16 points or as small as 2 points. It was conducted Oct. 21 to 24.

What about the big swing states?

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Nate Cohn at the NYT: Hillary Clinton Leads by 7 Points in Pennsylvania Poll.

If Donald J. Trump has a path to the presidency with big gains among white working-class voters, it has to run through Pennsylvania — a disproportionately white, blue-collar state with few Hispanic voters.

But a New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll released Thursday indicates that Pennsylvania remains out of reach for Mr. Trump.

Hillary Clinton leads him by seven percentage points, 46 percent to 39 percent, in a four-way race. And in a contest that could decide control of the Senate, the Republican senator Pat Toomey trails the Democratic challenger Katie McGinty by three points….

Mr. Trump’s message does seem to be playing well among the white working-class voters that Republicans have coveted for a decade. Over all, he leads among white voters without a college degree by a 17-point margin, 51 percent to 34 percent.

It’s better than Mitt Romney’s 12-point victory with that group in the state in 2012, according to Upshot estimates. Mr. Trump appears to be especially strong in northeastern Pennsylvania, including the Scranton and Wilkes-Barre area, where Mr. Trump leads by 16 points. Mr. Romney won the region by four points in 2012.

But these gains would not be sufficient for Mr. Trump to win the state, even if he matched Mr. Romney’s standing among other voters — something he is not pulling off.

Mr. Trump has the support of just 76 percent of Republican voters and trails among white voters with a college degree by nine points, 47 percent to 38 percent. He has nearly no support among black and other nonwhite voters.

Yesterday Bloomberg released a poll that showed Trump leading by 2 points in Florida, but that poll also showed Clinton getting only 51 percent of the Hispanic vote. I find that hard to believe and so does Latino Decisions.

Four other recent polls showed Clinton winning Florida, and a new one came out this morning: UNF Poll: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump in Florida.

Hillary Clinton is edging Donald Trump among Florida likely voters, according to a University of North Florida poll released Thursday, more good news for the former Secretary of State as Democrats are also cheering strong early-voting numbers across one of the nation’s most important swing states.

The poll of 836 likely voters, however, gives one down-ballot Republican good news of his own: U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio leads U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy by a 6-point margin.

Clinton leads Trump by four points — 43 percent to 39 percent — which is just outside the poll’s 3.39 percent margin of error. Third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein garnered 6 percent and 3 percent support respectively….

“(I)n this election Democrats are outperforming their historical norms in absentee and early voting. If this trend continues through Election Day, Clinton could expand this margin and easily win Florida,” said Michael Binder, a UNF political science professor and director of the school’s Public Opinion Research Lab, which conducted the poll.

The survey was conducted Oct. 20-25.

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Hillary is going to win Pennsylvania and I think she will win Florida because of the Latino vote. Mainstream pollsters just don’t seem to understand how to poll Latinos. Here’s an interesting article on Latino voters at NBC News:

With early voting already underway in key battleground states, outreach and education organizations focused on the Latino community are responding to surveys of early voters with a mix of cautious optimism and concern over the disproportionate turnout numbers between states.

The National Association of Elected and Appointed Officials and conducted by the polling firm Latino Decisions conclude in a report that, “Latino voter contact rates in California, New York and Texas [are] much lower than in battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina.”

With competitive states ripe for picking in a tumultuous Republican campaign headed by Donald Trump, Democrats and the Clinton camp appear to be focused on putting pressure on the GOP in Latino-heavy states that have the greatest potential for electoral gains.

The Clinton campaign sent Bernie Sanders, Chelsea Clinton, and Michelle Obama to Arizona last week. Among their hopes were to mobilize the young Latino population.

Heavy investment in battleground states appears to be paying off in votes in Nevada, North Carolina, Arizona, and Florida.

With the Democratic Party practically conceding the election in Texas, state party officials continue to struggle with Latino turnout throughout the Lone Star State. The report finds that 70 percent of Latinos in Texas have yet to be contacted with just two weeks to go before Election Day.

I hope the Clinton campaign is paying attention. Check out this Texas poll: UT/TT Poll: In Texas, Trump holding narrow lead over Clinton.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump held a three-percentage-point lead over Democrat Hillary Clinton on the eve of early voting in Texas, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.

Trump and his running mate, Mike Pence, had the support of 45 percent of likely Texas voters, compared with 42 percent for Clinton and Tim Kaine; 7 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and William Weld; and 2 percent for the Green Party’s Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka. The remaining 5 percent said they would vote for someone else for president and vice president.

“This is the trend that we’ve been seeing in polling for the last two weeks,” said Jim Henson, co-director of the UT/TT Poll and head of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.

In spite of the closeness of the race and the margin of error, the number of polls showing similar distance between the candidates, with Trump in front, “is probably a telling us where this race really stands,” Henson said. Close, with a Trump lead, in other words.

The survey was in the field from Oct. 14 to Oct. 23; early voting in Texas began Oct. 24.

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CNN: Can Hillary Clinton win Texas? (Yes, Texas). She probably could, but I suppose it was smarter to focus her resources on other states she is more likely to win, like Colorado, Nevada, Florida, and even Arizona.

“I think this is the year Texas could have gone blue,” said Matt Angle, director of the Lone Star Project, a political action committee aligned with Democrats. “But you don’t win a state like Texas unless there’s a real, aggressive and engaged campaign to win it.”

Still, many here believe Clinton could draw a greater share of the vote than even Obama did in 2008, when he won nearly 44% of the vote to Republican nominee John McCain’s 55.5%.
Looking to appear on offense, the Clinton campaign placed a six-figure ad buy in Texas this month highlighting the endorsement of her campaign by the Dallas Morning News — the first time the paper backed a Democrat since 1940. But the low-dollar investment in an exorbitantly expensive state was largely a symbolic gesture.
A strong Clinton showing on Nov. 8 “could reinforce the argument that Texas doesn’t have to wait for demographics,” Angle said. “One of the biggest myths about Texas is that Democrats always get stomped on here.” The reality, he said, “is just that we seldom have the resources to compete statewide.”

But what if pollsters are overlooking Latino votes?

If Texas doesn’t turn blue this year, maybe it will in 2020.

So . . . I thought I’d focus on the good polling news for Hillary in this post. I’ll add a few more links in the comment thread and I hope you will too!

 


Wednesday Reads: Pile it on…thick!

White Star Coffee

Good Morning!

It is Wednesday…again, and with Perry’s announcement on Saturday, it seems there is a lot of crap being piled on, from just about everyone…including Perry himself.

Obama gave a warning to Perry yesterday, and so did the former “Brain” of George W Bush…Karl Rove Piles On Rick Perry: Bernanke Line ‘Not A Presidential Statement’ | TPMDC

It’s no secret that Team George W. Bush and Team Rick Perry are not exactly close. And with Perry flailing after he accused Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke of “almost treasonous” behavior, one of Team W’s biggest names is taking the opportunity to twist the knife.

“You don’t accuse the chairman of the federal reserve of being a traitor to his country. Of being guilty of treason,” Karl Rove told Fox News Tuesday. “And, suggesting that we treat him pretty ugly in texas. You know, that is not, again a presidential statement.”

I wonder which GOP candidate Mr. Potato Head…or as Colbert illustrated a few weeks ago, a big boiled ham with glasses, will support for 2012.  Cause it looks like he doesn’t like anyone.  And here I thought Perry would appeal to him, as far as the familiar way he talks…laughs…and smirks.

Another Perry item that made news recently, Rick Perry backed an already-climate-crusading Al Gore in ’88 – Bob King – POLITICO.com

Texas Gov. Rick Perry may have forgotten a thing or two about the Al Gore presidential campaign he helped lead in 1988.

In an interview with an Iowa radio station on Monday, the Republican presidential contender explained his role as the Gore campaign’s Texas chairman by saying that “this was Al Gore before he invented the Internet and got to be Mr. Global Warming.”

But in fact, global warming was already a significant theme for Gore in 1987 and 1988 — long before his activism led to several books, a Nobel Prize and a part in an Academy Award-winning film. It was also well before the right gave him the “Mr. Ozone” nickname and talk radio heaped endless mockery on the future vice president.

At the time, Perry was a democrat…but he still held “conservative” values…is that PLUB speak for being anti-woman? I don’t know.

It looks like DC just doesn’t understand the rest of America…h/t to Boston Boomer for the link…Gallup Finds The Part Of America That Believes The Economy Is Doing Well

Well, this week, the esteemed pollsters at Gallup made some headlines when, for the first time, President Barack Obama’s approval rating dipped below 40 percent. That result underpinned any number of stories that read, “Terrible Economy Presents Problems For Obama.” Well, that’s undeniably true. But a less remarked-upon bit of polling from Gallup is this bit here, in which they set out to gauge the nation’s “economic confidence.” What they found was remarkably consistent — state by state, there are more people lacking in confidence than there are people who feel the economy has turned around.

So once again, the real story is, “Terrible Economy Presents Problems For Ordinary Americans.” But if you don’t see those stories, there’s a reason why, and it has everything to do with the one outlier in Gallup’s findings. If you want a hint as to where that outlier is, consider this: every single one of this poll’s respondents said they were currently employed. In every state, Gallup spoke to people who are at least fortunate enough to have a job (“87,634 employed adults, aged 18 and older, conducted from January-June 2011”).

So with that in mind, what part of America do you imagine has the highest concentration of employed people who don’t have personal relationships with people who are unemployed?

Yes, it seems that the one and only place in America where anyone has any confidence in the economy also happens to be Washington, D.C., home to political elites, the media that covers them, the people who win the relevant contracts and the people who feather their nests lobbying for the laws that impact the other United (in their lack of economic confidence) States Of America.

The DC residents in the big White House don’t get it either…talk about being in a bubble of affluent indifference, Obama is just surrounded by a city that doesn’t have the same worries as the rest of the country.  Although, I am pretty sure there are areas in DC that have it just as bad as the rest of us, but that is probably the sections of town that Obama is ignoring…nationwide.

There is new information being release about the ‘Fast and Furious’ gun sting linked to 11 violent crimes in U.S. – latimes.com

Firearms from the ATF’s Fast and Furious weapons-trafficking investigation turned up at the scenes of at least 11 violent crimes in the U.S. as well as at a U.S. Border Patrol agent’s slaying in southern Arizona last year, the Justice Department has acknowledged to Congress.

Justice did not provide any details about those crimes. But The Times has learned that they occurred in several Arizona cities, including Phoenix, where Operation Fast and Furious was managed, as well as in El Paso, Texas, where a total of 42 Fast and Furious weapons were seized at two separate crime scenes.

The new numbers, which vastly expand the scope of the danger the program posed to U.S. citizens over a 14-month period, are contained in a letter that Justice Department officials turned over to the Senate Judiciary Committee last month.

“Fast and Furious” was supposed to identify Mexican cartels and drug smuggling routes by selling the guns “illegally” across the border as way to track the criminal movements. It did not work as planned…hmm…quelle surprise!

But a source close to the unfolding controversy, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the continuing investigation, said that as early as January 2010, just after the operation began, Fast and Furious weapons had turned up at crime scenes in Phoenix, Nogales, Douglas and Glendale in Arizona, and in El Paso. The largest haul was 40 Fast and Furious weapons at one crime scene in El Paso.

According to this article, there were 1,418 firearms circulated in “Fast and Furious,” but this is an estimate. Previous estimates put the number higher at 2,000 guns.

Moving on to one group that is not buying what Obama is selling…Latinos To Obama: Change On Immigration Or Else

First let me say I love what the organizer of a Latino voter organization has to say about Obama…

Some Latinos around the country rallied on Tuesday against the White House’s deportation policies, attempting to send a message to President Barack Obama that they may not support him for reelection if he continues to deport record numbers of undocumented immigrants.

“We don’t need to discourage people from voting for President Obama,” rally organizer Roberto Lovato of the Latino organization Presente.org told HuffPost. “He’s doing a smashing job of it himself.”

Oh yeah, you got that right!

Latinos came out in record numbers for Obama in 2008, helping propel him to victory over John McCain. Obama’s support from Latinos was based on his personality and politics, but also his rhetoric on immigration — consistently among the top issues for many Latino voters.

Obama promised to deliver immigration reform and create paths to citizenship for some of the estimated 11 million undocumented people living in the United States. But after two years in office, he has yet to achieve even incremental steps toward comprehensive immigration reform, and meanwhile has expanded immigration enforcement to record levels.

Obama deported 393,000 people in the 2010 fiscal year, with an overall deportation record that far exceeds his predecessor, George W. Bush.

Some Latinos now have a message for the president: If deportations continue at high rates, he should not count on their votes in 2012.

Rep. Luis Gutierres, a Democrat from Illinois says that it is not a question of voting for whoever runs against Obama, he thinks Latinos will just stay home.

Personally, I don’t think Latinos are the only group of former Obama supporters staying home.  Granted, I am pretty sure many of us here at Sky Dancing are planning on staying home too…there is no way in hell I am voting for Obama, or any of the other 2012 PLUBs that will get the GOP nomination.

A recent report in England is being labeled a “call to arms” for women in the UK. Women face 70-year wait for equal pay – Home News, UK – The Independent

It will take 70 years to achieve parity between men and women in the country’s top jobs, according to a report released today by the Equality and Human Rights Commission.

The survey Sex and Power 2011, dubbed a “call to arms” by women’s employment-rights campaigners, reveals that women represent only 12.5 per cent of directors of FTSE 100 companies. They also account for just 22.2 per cent of MPs, an imbalance which would take 14 general elections to redress. It also notes little change in the figures presented in the last report, released in 2008.

Figures show that women in the media are faring even worse than three years ago, representing 9.5 per cent of national newspaper editors, a fall from the 13.6 per cent recorded in 2008, and 6.7 per cent of FTSE 350 media companies’ chief executives, down from 10.5 per cent in 2008. However, 26.1 per cent of directors of major museums and art galleries are women, up from 17.4 per cent.

The report also found that 12.9 per cent of senior members of the judiciary are women and there has been a slight fall in the number of female university vice-chancellors: 14.3 per cent, down from 14.4 per cent in 2008.

I wonder if this recent report can also show the position of women in the workplace in other developed nations…still it is interesting isn’t it?

“It’s 2011 and women remain largely excluded from positions of power and influence in virtually every sphere of life – the media, the judiciary, the education sector and more,” said Anna Bird, acting chief executive of the women’s employment-rights group the Fawcett Society.

She added: “Without radical action, babies born today will be drawing their pensions before they can hope to have an equal say in the world of politics, business and education.
“This report must act as a call to arms; the Government and others can no longer turn a blind eye to this injustice, wishing and hoping it will sort itself out. We look forward to hearing all political parties respond to this report, and explain their plans to challenge the stark and persistent injustice that is the absence of women from positions of power across the country.

Ah, and over here across the pond we are just trying to keep women’s right to have control over her own body, along with the right to affordable reproductive healthcare…

The article finishes with this quote from Commissioner Kay Carberry,

“If Britain is to stage a strong recovery from its current economic situation, then we have to make sure we’re not wasting women’s skills and talents.”

Hey that goes for the US as well!

So what are you all finding interesting reading today? Be sure you post some links below!