Election Night Live Blog #2

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That’s Hillary finishing a speech in the rain in Florida.

Here’s a fresh thread as we continue to watch the returns. North Carolina is looking very good for Clinton right now. Remember she doesn’t need to win Florida, and if she wins North Carolina, Trump won’t have a good path to 270. He also needs to win a blue state, and I don’t see a good candidate. Hillary is way up in Michigan and Wisconsin. She could still pull out Florida, because there are votes still out in high Democratic areas in the southern part of the state.

 


Many Happy Returns of the Day!!!


There are long lines in states and precincts that are likely to vote Democrat.  The swing states are still too close to call and people are still standing in line.  Hang in there Swing State Heroes!!!  Racine Wisconsin–rust belt area of the state–has run out of Ballots.  The turn out in people threatened by a Romney/Ryan ascendancy have really TURNED OUT!!!

Good Evening !! 

The polls in more swing states are closing while all of the swing states in the rest of the country are still hanging like a chad in the Florida 2000 presidential election.

Meanwhile, we have some things we know.  First, we have some new Senators.  Here’s three things you should know about Senator-to-be Murphy from Connecticut.

1. He is a strong LGBT advocate
2. He is a Supreme Court watchdog
3. He supports filibuster reform

and Bill O’Reilly is upset.

On Fox News tonight, Bill O’Reilly lamented that the country’s changing demographics are helping the Obama campaign, who is popular among Americans who “want stuff” — like African-Americans, Hispanics, and women:

 O’REILLY: President Obama, he knows it and he ran on it….Twenty years ago, President Obama would have been roundly defeated by establishment candidate like Mitt Romney. The white establishment is now the minority. And the voters, many of them, feel that the economic system is stacked against them and they want stuff. You are going to see Hispanics vote for President Obama, overwhelming for President Obama. And women will probably break President Obama’s way. People feel that they are entitled to things and which candidate, between the two, is going to give them things?

Here’s some information on the new independent Senator from Maine Angus King.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars in ads against King this cycle, but it is Rove’s Crossroads GPS that has had the most high-profile presence on the airwaves in Maine, pushing an anti-King spot that comes packaged with a kind of slickness that invariably leaves Mainers shaking their heads in a quiet kind of disgust:

So more, polls are closing and we still don’t have firm answers but the trends are good.  More young people, more blacks, and more Hispanics voting than expected.

Here’s CNN’s list of Top issues for Voters.

The early exit poll results show the economy is the number one issue on voters’ minds. Sixty percent called it the most important issue. Health care is a distant second at 17%. It’s followed by the deficit at 17% and foreign policy at 4%.

Twenty-four percent of the voters in this exit poll say their family’s financial situation is better today than it was four years ago. Thirty-four percent say it’s worse today while 41% say their financial situation is the same.

As for what today’s voters are looking for in a candidate, 29% want someone who has a vision for the future and a nearly identical number, 28%, want someone who shares their values. Twenty percent say the top quality they were looking for is whether a candidate cares about people like them, while 19% want a strong leader.

The exit polls provide a window into voters’ thoughts in some of the mostly-closely watched states of Florida, Virginia, Ohio and New Hampshire.

Early exit poll results from Florida indicate 67% of today’s voters are white, 16% are Hispanic, 13% are black and 1% are Asian. Forty-nine percent of today’s Florida voters say President Obama would better handle Medicare while 47% say Romney. Twenty percent of Florida’s voters –one in five– waited until late in the campaign to decide which presidential candidate to support, while 78% say they made up their minds before October 20th.

In Virginia, early exit polls show 21% of today’s voters identify themselves as white evangelicals or born-again Christians, while 79% say they are not. Virginia voters are split down the middle in their opinion of both presidential candidates. Fifty percent say they have a favorable opinion of President Obama while 49% view him unfavorably. Forty-eight percent say they have a favorable opinion of Mitt Romney while 50% view him unfavorably.


Count the Votes: Live Blog

Good Evening!!

I just returned from voting with the rest of the Ninth Ward of New Orleans in our little 1920s era fire station.  I love my polling place. They move one of the big fire engines to set up the 4 booths.  All of my poll workers are nice little church ladies with a strong memory of Jim Crow and the Civil Rights era.  We’re always a nice usual mix of an inner city, working class neighborhood folks with lots of young creative types and gay folks.  We’re the kind’ve people that Romney considers to be the 47% worth his contempt and I can guarantee he probably got very few votes here. Obama and Jill Stein topped the ballots here. Romney came next with about 14 names I didn’t recognize following him.  Johnson was way at the bottom.

All eyes are on the swing states tonight as voting continues.   These are the swing states along with their associated number of electoral vote:

Colorado 9 , Florida 29, Iowa 6, Nevada 6,New Hampshire 4, North Carolina 15, Ohio 18, Virginia 13, Wisconsin 10.

Virginia will be the first state to watch.  There is also an important senate seat there where former Governor Tim Kaine is facing former Governor McCawCaw .  We are also following the MA senate race were Senator Misogyny will helpfully lose his seat to Elizabeth Warren. It will be the first of Four Romney Home states that will go Obama.  A fifth Romney Home state–New Hampshire–is likely to go for Obama since a lot of Republicans up there are of the libertarian stripe and my go for Johnson. North Carolina is also sitting in the group of states.  If Virginia and North Carolina come in for Obama, we can all go to bed early or switch to watching a movie.

Who knows what’s going to happen in Florida?  We’re already getting reports of shenanigans. We’ve got at least two bloggers on the ground there so maybe they’ll help us out!

Coming on the heels of those states will be the big prizes of swing states Ohio, Wisconsin, and the little state that drives us nuts every primary seasons–Iowa.

My bet is that if we get results early in any of the states we will have an early night.   Otherwise, we may have to way to Nevada and Colorado for some closure.

My research into forecasters who use polls to provide analytical forecast indicates an Obama win.  Pundits are still feeling Romney.  Hopefully, this is the last time any of us have to feel Romney EVER again.

So, here come the results from the first states.