Iowa Caucus Live Blog/Open Thread

Caucus

 

Hey Sky Dancers!

Here’s a fresh thread to discuss the happenings in Iowa tonight. I guess no one really knows what will happen in Iowa, because the caucus system is kind of nuts–especially on the Democratic side.

Earlier today, Al Giordano, a political writer who was very successful in predicting the results of primaries in 2008 and who in 2007 wrote an article explaining how Barack Obama would beat Hillary Clinton for the 2008 nomination, released his predictions for tonight:

Republicans: Donald Trump 33%, Ted Cruz 26%, Marco Rubio 18%, Ben Carson 8% and no one else above 5%.

Democrats: Clinton 54%, Sanders 36%, O’Malley 10%

I summarized Giordano’s reasoning in the comment on the previous thread:

He says there are indications that Bernie’s on-the-ground organization is weak. See Yahoo story I posted above, his campaign mgr. knows little about the caucus system apparently.

Sanders’ support is concentrated in three counties that are home to universities. In Iowa you have to win delegates in every district; you can’t just win big in 2 or 3 and come in first. Hillary has people on the ground in every district.

If college students live in Iowa they have to return to their home districts to caucus. That may be difficult because they have classes today and there is a blizzard on the way.

More problems for Bernie. The turnout is not expected to be huge–it will be “normal” about like 2004. He has been trying to damp down expectations for days, so I think he knows he’s not going to win.

FiveThirtyEight is giving Hillary a 67% chance to win Iowa. Of course this is all speculation for now. As they say, it will all come down to turn out.

Here’s Nate Silver on how hard it is to poll Iowa.

It’s common for pundits to recite ass-covering phrases like “it all comes down to turnout” or “anything could happen” on the eve of a big election. If you’ve been following FiveThirtyEight over the years, you know it’s not our style to do that. Instead, we issue probabilistic forecasts, which can sometimes seem quite confident: We had Barack Obama as a 90.9 percent favorite to beat Mitt Romney on the eve of the 2012 general election, for example.

So let’s get a couple of things straight before the results start trickling in from Iowa tonight:

  • It all comes down to turnout.
  • Anything could happen.

All right, not absolutely anything could happen. Martin O’Malley is not going to win the Democratic caucuses. Donald Trump will probably not finish behind Carly Fiorina.

But could Marco Rubio win the Iowa caucuses despite not having led a single poll there? Sure. Rick Santorum did that exact thing four years ago.

Could Trump slip all the way to third place? Entirely plausible. But he could also get upwards of 40 percent of the vote and double his nearest rival’s total.

Ben Carson in second place? Rand Paul in third? The odds are against it — but equally strange things have happened in Iowa before.

Much more detail at the link.

I thought this was interesting from Joan Walsh at The Nation: Is Donald Trump Even Trying in Iowa? Walsh went to a Trump rally this morning, and found it underwhelming.

Waterloo, Iowa, Monday morning. Jeb Bush would have loved it. It may not tell us anything about caucus turnout—it was a workday morning, after all—but it was a strange moment nonetheless.

Trump acknowledged the low turnout early, calling the diminutive crowd “our very close friends,” then saying, “I’m gonna get out of here fast,” for his next event in Cedar Rapids. The crowd groaned, and Trump reassured them. “No, no, we’re gonna take care of you. Win, lose or draw, I love you all.” He gave a perfunctory 35-minute speech at what I can’t even call a rally.

Like an aging rock star, Trump did a medley of his hits. “We’ll build a big, beautiful wall.” “Common Core is gone.” “The Second Amendment is not going to be chipped away at.” “We’re gonna protect Christianity. You know Christianity is under siege folks, it’s under siege.”

According to Walsh there was zero organizing going on.

Remarkably, there was no evidence of organizing even at this caucus-day rally; the campaign was selling its famous gear in the lobby, but not a soul was attempting to identify voters and make sure they know where their caucus site is.

I met Trump supporters who promised to caucus nonetheless. Michele Foley, an independent Mary Kay director, says she’s never caucused before but she will tonight for Trump. “I’m tired of where the country is going. I’m voting to take the country back, I’m not happy with anything Obama has done.” Still, Foley hasn’t been contacted by the campaign; she went to the website herself and figured out the caucus rules and where to show up at 7.

Is it possible Trump doesn’t really want to win?

Bernie Sanders has been trying to tamp down his supporters’ expectation for tonight. You have to wonder what his internal polls look like. He has also been saying he doesn’t expect a big turnout and that is what he would need to win.

Iowa Starting Line: Is The Sanders Campaign Prepping A “Blame Iowa” Strategy In Case Of A Loss?

With the most recent Des Moines Register poll showing Sanders still three points back from Clinton, and the possibility that Sanders’ support is too heavily concentrated in certain precincts (problematic since each has a set number of delegates), there seems to be growing concern among Sanders supporters that he’ll come up short in his upset bid in Iowa. That seems to have brought forward a series of Sanders-pushed stories that suggest a trend in which the campaign may try to undermine the legitimacy of the results.

The most recent attempt came last night when Sanders campaign manager Jeff Weaver spun a sinister-sounding story to Yahoo News about Clinton staffers possibly serving as precinct captains or volunteer leaders, based on a letter a Sanders supporter received. Weaver suggested it could mean that Clinton is “infiltrating the caucuses with out-of-state paid staffers,” and possibly even try to get counted in the caucus.

That argument, however, is utterly ridiculous. Weaver’s so-called proof was a letter telling a voter the precinct leader for their caucus was a paid staffer from Clinton’s campaign. This is actually a regular practice by all campaigns. In certain precincts where they may not have identified a precinct captain, they’ll send a staffer there to organize the room or, at the very least, greet supporters, but not to caucus themselves. And in this situation the Clinton staffer was simply a placeholder when the mailer went out – they later identified a local precinct captain.

Weaver claimed to not know enough about caucus rules to know whether this was allowed or not. Weaver knows the rules. He’s just hoping enough journalists and those outside Iowa don’t so that they’ll think something sounds fishy….

A separate story pushed by a top Sanders aide last week, however, veered into borderline tin-foil hat conspiracy theory. In an interview with MSNBC, Sanders’ top Iowa adviser Pete D’Alessandro suggested that Microsoft, which developed the caucus reporting software this year, might somehow intentionally fabricate the results to give Clinton a win. If you are looking for a software that you can do pdf files online, visit www.sodapdf.com/sign-pdf/.

“You’d have to ask yourself why they’d want to give something like that away for free,” D’Alessandro told MSNBCon suspicions they had about Microsoft’s involvement in the caucus process. Other Sanders aides were said to have brought up concerns about Microsoft employees who have donated to Clinton in the past.

That’s quite the accusation. The idea that Microsoft that would risk its reputation in a massive way by fraudulently skewing the most important early state result is pure imagination. It would also be a surprising amount of forethought for Microsoft, considering they started talks for the caucus reporting job about six months before Sanders announced his campaign.

 

You can get live updates at The New York Times and The LA Times, and of course Twitter is a great source of information.

Where are you following the story? What are you hearing? Let us know your thoughts in the comment thread. I for one am psyched up!

 


Lazy Saturday Reads: Eghazi!!

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Happy Saturday!!

Has any other presidential candidate in history had to fight the corporate media in addition to attacks from the other party and her opponents for the nomination to the extent that Hillary has to? I don’t think so. In just two days, Iowans will head to the caucuses. What “bombshells” will the media find to hype against Hillary before Monday night?

Today it’s “Eghazi” once again. Yesterday, the State Department announced that some of Clinton’s emails have been retroactively deemed to be “top secret.” The emails were not sent by Hillary from her private email server. They were sent to her by other people using the State Departments unclassified email server, because the information was not classified at the time.

Unfortunately, someone in the “intelligence community”–presumably GOP partisan(s)–told the State Department they cannot release these emails, so now the Hillary haters can speculate to their hearts’ content. Some of these withheld emails were exchanges between then Secretary of State Clinton and President Barack Obama! But you know, “Benghazi!!” Eghazi!!

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I’ll post just one corporate media article about this from eminent Clinton hater and Washington Post columnist Chris Cillizza: Hillary Clinton’s email defense just hit a major bump in the road. Seriously? Oh, and the article is accompanied by an unflattering photo of Hillary frowning.

For months, Hillary Clinton and her presidential campaign have stuck to a consistent story line when faced with allegations of classified information on the private server she used exclusively as secretary of state: She was the victim of an overzealous intelligence community bent on categorizing information as top secret or classified when it was, in fact, neither.

That defense hit a major snag on Friday when the State Department announced that it, too, had found “top secret” information on Clinton’s server — 22 emails across seven separate emails chains. The information, the State Department said, was so secret that those emails would never be released to the public.

Suddenly Clinton’s narrative of an overly aggressive intelligence community or a broader squabble between the intelligence world and the State Department didn’t hold water. Or at least held a whole lot less water than it did prior to Friday afternoon.

The Clinton team quickly pivoted. “After a process that has been dominated by bureaucratic infighting that has too often played out in public view, the loudest and leakiest participants in this interagency dispute have now prevailed in blocking any release of these emails,” said campaign spokesman Brian Fallon.

Calling for the release of the allegedly top secret emails is a smart gambit by the Clinton folks since it makes them look as if they have nothing to hide while being protected by the near-certainty that the State Department won’t simply change its mind on the release because the Clinton team asked them to.

Still, the timing of the State Department announcement, coming just three days before the pivotal Iowa caucuses, and the nature of that announcement seem likely to further complicate a situation that has already caused Clinton and her campaign huge amounts of agita since the existence of her private email server was revealed almost one year ago to the day.

You can read more Cillizza lies and distortion at the link.

1402956532996.cachedIt’s not likely you’ll see the true story in the corporate media, so here are some calmer responses from people who actually know what they’re talking about. By the way Clinton spokesman Brian Fallon is one of those people. He was previously director of communications for the Department of Justice and dealt with classified material on a daily basis.

Why does the Clinton campaign want the emails released if they are show shocking? Because they’re not.

This from Sen. Dianne Feinstein:

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/693219721609637889

From Hillary:

So what is really happening? As far as I can tell, there is absolutely nothing new here. It’s all about politics and trying to keep Hillary Clinton from becoming POTUS.

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Max Fisher at Vox: The Hillary Clinton top-secret email controversy, explained.

If it’s top secret, then it must be really sensitive, right?

Not necessarily. A large proportion of documents that our government classifies are not actually that sensitive — more on that below. So the key thing now is to try to figure out: Were these emails classified because they contain highly sensitive information that Clinton never should have emailed in the first place, or because they were largely banal but got scooped up in America’s often absurd classify-everything practices? [….]

According to a statement by the State Department, “These documents were not marked classified at the time they were sent.”

In other words, they do not contain information that was “born classified,” but rather fall into the vast gray area of things that do not seem obviously secret at the time but are later deemed that way — not always for good reason.

Go over to Vox to read about “America’s problem with overclassification.”

CLINTON US ETHIOPIA

CLINTON US ETHIOPIA

Big Tent Democrat AKA ArmandoKos at Talk Left: eGhazi: Same BS IC story: different day. Check the links in the post also if you want to know more.

Josh Gerstein and Rachel Bade:

The furor over Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email account grew more serious for the Democratic presidential front-runner Friday as the State Department designated 22 of the messages from her account “top secret.” [. . .]

These documents were not marked classified at the time they were sent [and they weren’t sent by Clinton imo – BTD my emhphasis] ,” Kirby said in a statement.

Sound familiar? It should because it is the same story I’ve been writing about since this nonsense started. See in particular State v. IC classification battles:

Now what does this mean? It means the Intelligence Community, represented here by the IC IG, disagrees with the State Department’s determination on the classification of certain information contained in the Clinton e-mails. In their opinion, the information should have been designated classified and should be so designated now. But State does not agree.

Now what were those “classified documents then? I reviewed some that got through. As you can see, the IC is full of crap.What about this batch? I think we can safely say that the bulk of these are news stories discussing drone strikes.

Gerstein writes:

The messages deemed “secret” also vary widely. One from Feb. 25, 2012, appears to discuss U.S. drone operations in Pakistan.”This is hitting the news, with Taliban or HQN [the Haqqani Network] claiming responsibility,” State policy planning chief Jake Sullivan wrote to Clinton. The message originated with the U.S. Ambassador in In Pakistan, Dick Hoagland. Nearly all the text is deleted, but press reports that day described the crash of a drone in North Waziristan.

U.S. drones in Pakistan are operated by the Central Intelligence Agency, but the program is officially covert and therefore classified, even though President Barack Obama has acknowledged it publicly.

In short it is just more crazy crap from IC – news articles are Top Secret!! seems to be the theory.

But leaving aside the overclassification issue, there is just a little problem for those who want to take Clinton down with this nonsense – she didn’t transmit any of the information – just received it. And the issue is not a private server – after all the State’s unsecure email system would not be appropriate for “classified” material either.

As you have heard from me often, if anyone is in trouble, it will be career State officials like the current Ambassador to Bahrain, William Roebuck, Timothy T. Davis and William J Burns.

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Addicting Info: Hillary Clinton Did Not Send ‘Top Secret’ Emails On Private Server.

To summarize:

  1. There are seven emails which the State Department says are now considered classified.
  2. The emails originated from inside the agency’s unclassified system.
  3. They were not marked ‘classified’ or ‘top secret’ when they were sent.
  4. The emails were not sent by Hillary Clinton, but were sent to her, along with a number of other people.
  5. One of the ‘top secret emails’ is likely a published newspaper article.

In other words, this is not the huge scandal republicans were hoping for. Instead, it’s just another baseless right wing attack on Hillary Clinton that falls apart under even the slightest amount of scrutiny.

Sigh . . . I’m already exhausted from this crap and the weekend is just beginning.

I’ll end with two Politico pieces, one on Bernie Sanders and his campaign’s “foreign policy advisers” and another on Sanders’ claims that he is more electable than Clinton.

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Bernie’s foreign policy deficit. ‘I don’t know how I got on Bernie Sanders’ list,’ says one expert cited by his campaign, by Michael Crowley.

Not long after President Barack Obama ordered U.S. airstrikes in Libya in 2011, his national security adviser, Tom Donilon, trekked to Capitol Hill to brief Democratic senators. After a few minutes of discussion about the military operation, Bernie Sanders took the floor.

To talk about the economy.

“Sanders delivered a meandering manifesto about Democratic messaging on the economy,” says a former Senate chief of staff. “It wasn’t that his insights were wrong. It just wasn’t the time or place. Everyone was thinking, ‘Here goes Bernie!’ ”

Current and former Senate aides call the episode typical of Sanders, who on any given day would rather talk about Wall Street profits than about Middle East conflict….

Sanders has yet to give a speech exclusively on foreign policy, and on Friday his campaign backed away from an earlier commitment to deliver one before the Iowa vote. Numerous Democratic foreign policy insiders contacted by POLITICO could not name anyone who regularly advises the Vermont Senator on world affairs — a stark contrast to a Clinton campaign teeming with several hundred foreign policy advisers.

Oddly, the Sanders campaign is claiming to have foreign policy advisers who had no idea they were advising Bernie.

When asked whether Sanders has a full-time campaign staffer who handles foreign policy issues, his campaign did not respond. And several people whom the Sanders campaign has cited as sources of national security advice tell POLITICO they barely know the socialist firebrand.

“Apparently I had a conversation with him last August,” said Tamara Cofman Wittes, a Brookings Institution Middle East scholar, after checking her calendar upon hearing that her name was on a list of people the Sanders campaign said he had consulted in recent months. “My vague recollection is that it was about [the Islamic State] but I don’t really remember any of the details.” Wittes added that she backs Clinton.

“I don’t know how I got on Bernie Sanders’ list,” said Ray Takeyh, an Iran scholar at the Council on Foreign Relations who says he spoke to Sanders once or twice about the Iran nuclear deal at Sanders’ request in mid-2015.

What the hell? But of course Bernie voted against going into Iraq in 2002, so he’s the real foreign policy expert, right?

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Bernie Sanders might have an electability problem, by Stephen Shepard.

“Not only is Bernie Sanders electable in the general election,” insisted Sanders senior adviser Tad Devine, “he’s a stronger candidate than Hillary Clinton in the general election.”

Indeed, public pollsters who’ve conducted surveys in both Iowa and New Hampshire caution that the Sanders team might be misreading the data the campaign is relying on to make its case that Sanders would broaden the Democratic electorate and make more states competitive by luring young, more independently minded voters.

Patrick Murray, who runs the Monmouth University Polling Institute in New Jersey, said the independent voters who are backing Sanders in the primary are more liberal in orientation and would be likely to vote for the Democrat in November anyway.

“It’s a big leap of faith to take primary poll data and jump to the general,” added Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which has conducted recent polls for NBC News and The Wall Street Journal. “You do ask the questions, and it tells you something: Hillary has a problem with independents, and Bernie doesn’t. Fast forward to September, October and November. The campaigns will change, and that dynamic will be different.”

Duh. Read the rest at the link.

What else is happening? Please post your thoughts and links in the comment thread and have a great weekend. 


Thursday Reads: #WeWontBeErased

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Good Morning!!

This is going to be a truly consequential election. Electing a woman to the presidency of the U.S. is going to be more difficult and more radical than electing a African American man in 2008 was. Some day America will elect an African American woman as president. How long with that take?

This is how change happens–very very slowly. In the beginning of this country only white men who were landowners could vote. It took until the mid-19th century for most states to allow universal white male suffrage. In 1870, African American men won the right to vote, but most states found ways to keep them from exercising that right. It wasn’t until August 18, 1920 that the 19th Amendment was ratified and women finally could vote in the U.S.

So it’s not surprising that an African American man was the first to break the white male hold on the presidency. If we really want to have a woman president in 2016, we are going to have to speak up loudly and demand it! And finally, more women are doing that. On Tuesday I wrote about how supporters of Hillary Clinton were able to get Twitter to remove the misogynistic hashtag #WordsThatDontDescribeHillaryClinton from its list of trending topics.

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Yesterday female and male supporters of Hillary took it a step further after being inspired by a brilliant post by Joan Walsh at The Nation despite the magazine’s endorsement of Bernie Sanders. I know many or most of you have already read the piece, but I still want to quote from it today. Why I’m Supporting Hillary Clinton, With Joy and Without Apologies. I’ve come to feel passion for Clinton herself, and for the movement that supports her.

Walsh begins by admitting she was hesitant to “come out of the closet” as a Clinton supporter because she is a journalist, but she spontaneously did so while talking to a woman in France who asked her if Americans–especially American women–were really ready to vote for a woman for president. She had turned down the opportunity to write a response to The Nation’s endorsement of Sanders, but while watching Monday’s CNN Democratic Town Hall, she changed her mind.

The town hall itself was great; Clinton, Sanders, and Martin O’Malley all looked admirable and presidential, in contrast to their awful Republican rivals. Democrats have a lot to be excited about this year.

But one moment got me particularly excited, and not in a good way. It came when a young white man—entitled, pleased with himself, barely shaving yet—broke the news to Clinton that his generation is with Bernie Sanders. “I just don’t see the same enthusiasm from younger people for you. In fact, I’ve heard from quite a few people my age that they think you’re dishonest. But I’d like to hear from you on why you feel the enthusiasm isn’t there.”

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That Catch-22 question–sort of analogous to asking a man “when did you stop beating your wife?” enraged Walsh, as it likely did millions of women.

“I’d like to hear from you on why you feel the enthusiasm isn’t there.” I’m not sure I can unpack all the condescension in that question. I heard a disturbing echo of the infamous 2008 New Hampshire debate moment when a moderator asked Clinton: “What can you say to the voters of New Hampshire on this stage tonight, who see a resume and like it, but are hesitating on the likability issue?” Yes, the “likability” issue. I found myself thinking: Not again. Why the hell does she have to put up with this again?

My problem wasn’t merely with the insulting personal tone of the question. It was also the way the young man anointed himself the voice of his generation, and declared it the Sanders generation. Now, I know Bernie is leading among millennials by a lot right now in the polls. Nonetheless, millions of millennials, including millions of young women, are supporting Hillary Clinton. And my daughter, as Nation readers know, is one of them. I find it increasingly galling to see her and her friends erased in this debate.

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That’s it. We are continually erased. Women are more than 50% of the U.S. population, but the issues that are important to us are casually dismissed by many (most?) male politicians, including Bernie Sanders. Sanders turns every discussion of racism or sexism back to his core issue of income inequality, seeming to deny that people of color and women are held back not just by economic factors, but also by bigotry and prejudice based on skin color and gender.

When I’ve disclosed that my daughter works for Clinton—in The Nation, on MSNBC, and on social media—we’ve both come in for trolling so vile it’s made me not merely defensive of her. It’s forced me to recognize how little society respects the passion of the many young women—and men—who are putting their souls into electing the first female president. It’s one thing to note that Sanders is winning among millennials; that’s true. It’s another to impugn the competence and dignity of the literally millions of millennials who support Clinton. Social-media trolls have had several fascinating and stunningly sexist reactions to the news of my daughter’s position. Obviously, she can’t be competent; I must have gotten her the job (in fact, she got it through a high-school friend who worked for Clinton and recommended her.) Obviously, she can’t think for herself; I must have indoctrinated her to support Clinton over Sanders. Or the flip side: Obviously, I have no integrity, and I support Clinton over Sanders only because my daughter is on her payroll.

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This article by Joan Walsh is huge. She is a well respected, influential writer who frequently appears on T.V. and who is highly visible on social media. Yesterday her article made a big impact on Twitter. Hundreds of women thanked her for speaking up and describing what so many women had been thinking and feeling when that entitled young man insulted one of the most admired and respected women in the world.

Then Peter Daou suggested a hashtag, #WeWontBeErased that hundreds of people used. It even got on the trending list for awhile.

This is so true. We have been erased again and again in my lifetime. We were erased in school when we were told that girls couldn’t participate in sports, that we couldn’t do math or science, that we couldn’t grow up to have “serious” careers. No. We should be housewives and mothers period. And if we were really so desperate as to want a paying job, we were told we could be teachers, nurses, or secretaries–certainly not lawyers or doctors or university professors.

We were erased during the political struggles of the 1960s and ’70s when we demanded our rights, when we wanted rape to be prosecuted as a serious crime, when we demanded that child abuse and incest be seen and punished, when we wanted equal pay for equal work. Our years of work for an Equal Right Amendment were also erased.

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We were erased in the 1980s when the fight against AIDS and the struggle for gay rights took precedence over our silly demands for equality with men. We were erased in the 1990s when the Senate ignored Anita Hill’s claims of sexual harassment and put her abuser on the Supreme Court. We were erased in recent decades as right wing Republicans (and even some Democrats) passed laws that restricted reproductive choices and voted against laws to protect women from gender-based violence.

When will it end? The election of a woman president could be a beginning of the end. To the “progessives” who think the election of an African American man was transformational, to those who argue that electing a 74-year-old man who identifies as a socialist would be a “transformational moment”: electing a woman as President of the U.S. would be even more “transformational.” It would be radical.

Maybe I’ll be mocked for saying this–as Hillary was mocked in 1993 for her speech in Austin and for her vision of “love and kindness.” I don’t care. I’m excited and enthusiastic at the prospect of electing a woman to the presidency. Not only that, I’m exited and enthusiastic about Hillary Clinton as that person we will elect.

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I wholeheartedly agree with Joan Walsh:

I appreciated Sanders supporter Kathy Geier’s acknowledgment here in The Nation that her candidate once again came off as tone-deaf on an issue of gender. Yet Geier seconded Sanders’s assertion that these two groups fighting for reproductive justice deserve to be termed “establishment”—and therefore unfavorably compared to the upstart, grassroots, and genuinely radical groups that back Sanders.

I just don’t see it that way. I think there are few issues as radical as advancing the reproductive autonomy of women. And I think it’s hard to be truly establishment when dangerous men are shooting up your clinics, and the Republican Congress is persistently voting to strip you of your funding. Yes, Planned Parenthood and NARAL have worked hard to become respected political players in the last 30 years, because the women they represent need political clout, not just services. But I’m old enough to remember when feminists were told that our issues—“cultural” issues like abortion and contraception—were costing Democrats elections, so couldn’t we pipe down for a little while? Now we’re the establishment?

Just like my lefty friends who praise Sanders for loudly promoting the single-payer solution to healthcare because it’s important to raise the issue’s standing and profile, I praise Clinton for making repeal of the Hyde Amendment, which bars Medicaid from paying for abortion for poor women, a major public campaign issue. I acknowledge Sanders has voted the right way, and I’m grateful for it. But Clinton is leading on it, the same way she brought up the vile Planned Parenthood video hoax in the very first Democratic debate. That leadership matters to me.

Dorothy Rodham and Hillary Clinton

Dorothy Rodham and Hillary Clinton

And this:

Finally, I’m struck by the insistence among Sanders supporters that Democrats who support Clinton—and right now, we are still the majority—are doing so joylessly, like party automatons.

Because our enthusiasms and excitement don’t count–see how it works? Our words, our thoughts, our wishes, our dreams, our goals are erased because we are just silly women. Well, I won’t be silent. I’m sick and tired of being told there is no enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton’s candidacy. I’m enthusiastic about her and so are millions of other women and men. If Hillary is elected, we’ll face more of this garbage, but we have to get her elected if we want real change and a real voice in government for women.

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Please post your thoughts and any links you want to share in the comment thread. We’ll have a live blog later for tonight’s GOP debate.

 


Tuesday Reads: Getting Knocked Down and Getting Back Up

Clinton speaking at the University of Texas in Austin in 1993. Courtesy Clinton Library

Clinton speaking at the University of Texas in Austin in 1993. Courtesy Clinton Library

Good Afternoon!!

Apologies for the late post. I had to spend my morning getting my bearings. When I first get up, my routine is to get some tea or coffee and open up Google News to see what people are talking about. Lately I’ve been looking at Twitter too.

The first story that caught my eye on Google is this one by Collum Borchers at The Washington Post.

Why Hillary Clinton is struggling, in 3 CNN audience questions.

Boy, did Hillary Clinton get a dose of reality in Iowa, where polls are all over the place but show her losing ground one week before the state’s first-in-the-nation caucuses. Right out of the gate, questioners hit the former secretary of state with some of the least flattering narratives about her.

This was the first question from the audience:

It feels like there is a lot of young people like myself who are very passionate supporters of Bernie Sanders. And, I just don’t see the same enthusiasm from younger people for you. In fact, I’ve heard from quite a few people my age that they think you’re dishonest, but I’d like to hear from you on why you feel the enthusiasm isn’t there.

And this was the second:

Secretary Clinton, earlier this month Vice President Joe Biden said you were a newcomer to the issue of income inequality, while praising Senator Sanders for his authentic voice on the issue. How do we know that you will keep this issue a top priority? ….

Even the third question, which came from a man who identified himself as a strong Clinton supporter, introduced the troublesome topic of Benghazi. (The man said he was impressed by Clinton’s performance during a congressional hearing on the 2012 attack last fall.)

When compliments come with that kind of baggage, you’re having a rough night.

Borchers admits that Hillary gave good, non-defensive answers, but gosh–those questions!

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks during a CNN town hall at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa, Monday, Jan. 25, 2016. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks during a CNN town hall at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa, Monday, Jan. 25, 2016. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

Reporters do this again and again. Maybe Borchers needs to take a look in the mirror and ask where the “narratives” about Hillary Clinton came from. Obviously, it’s from the media. Republicans attack Hillary, of course; but the media is responsible for their decades of ugly, sexist reporting and opinion pieces on this “narrative” they created and pushed.

Besides, does anyone really believe CNN didn’t screen the questions and choose those? Give me a break.

After that, I took a look at Twitter. This hashtag was trending: #WordsThatDon’tDescribeHillary. I hated to look at it because I already knew what I would see–vicious misogyny, sexism, and probably violent threats. But I clicked anyway and I found just what I expected.

What did surprise me is that many Twitter users pushed back and eventually Twitter took down the hashtag. Of course one of them was Peter Daou, a tireless fighter against the war on women.

and Tom Watson.

And Twitter took it down!

And there were thank yous.

Suddenly I saw that there are good people in the world too. The Bernie bros are probably not even the majority of people who support Bernie Sanders. But they are hurting him badly with undecided voters who witness their behavior. If you need evidence of that, look at this tweet from Sanders’ “rapid response director.” He even pinned the tweet to top of his feed.

I don’t know how Hillary does it. She was wonderful last night–friendly, warm, genuine, and willing to answer every question–unlike grumpy old man Bernie Sanders. But what Bernie bros (sadly, a lot of them are women) heard was just the ugly voices in their heads.

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton greets attendees after a CNN town hall at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa, Monday, Jan. 25, 2016. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton greets attendees after a CNN town hall at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa, Monday, Jan. 25, 2016. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

I guess we’ll find out next Monday whether the Bernie bro strategy works on Iowa voters. Meanwhile, I’m going to follow Hillary’s lead and “get back up” every time I get “knocked down” by this garbage.

Last night RalphB shared a wonderful article on Hillary by Ruby Cramer at Buzzfeed. (That’s where I found the photo of Hillary at the top of this post.)

Hillary Clinton wants to talk to you about love & kindness.

On this particular day, after a routine campaign event at a college in Manchester, New Hampshire — after taking photos and giving a speech, after getting a question from the audience about the women who’ve alleged they were sexually assaulted by her husband and answering it without hesitation or alarm, after moving onto the noise and chaos of a crowded rope line —Clinton is shepherded away to the quiet of an available room: the building’s industrial-style kitchen. And it’s in this setting, seated in a fold-out chair at a small table, that Clinton seems almost surprised by the most basic line of questioning: why she runs.

“I think most people who interview me never ask me,” she says. “They nibble a little bit around the edges but there’s very—” Clinton turns to the one aide present, her press secretary, also seated at the table, and asks him to think back: “I don’t know of very many instances in the last 14 years that we’ve had these kinds of conversations.”

She has been asked every day, for decades, what she thinks, but rarely why. And here, next to a dishwasher, Clinton slides right back into the subject. Her words are slow and deliberate and she takes the conversation to this discussion she’s been trying to talk about, to bring up on the trail, as she is again ensnared in a campaign that’s more difficult than expected, in an election dominated by the language of anger and fear.

I am talking about love and kindness,” she says.

As Clinton sees it, she’s really talking about a “shorthand” for her personal and political beliefs, for all the impulses that shape what she does and how she does it. She is talking about the core of “what I believe and who I am.” Even if no one views her that way. Even if she’s never been quite able to explain it. Even if she still isn’t known for the vision she’s been trying to share for decades, going back to the beginning. Even if her earnest efforts to connect with people are hampered not just by her image, but by the actual barriers of public life. After so many years, how do you convince a nation full of people who think they know everything about you that they don’t?

Hillary Clinton during giving her keynote speech at the Democratic National Convention in 2008.

Hillary Clinton during giving her keynote speech at the Democratic National Convention in 2008.

The article goes back to Clinton’s early days as First Lady, and how she was “mocked” and ripped to shreds by the DC Villagers.

This was 1993. She is first lady — a few months into the job, head of her husband’s health care effort, split between the White House and the hospital room in Little Rock, Arkansas, where her father lies brain-dead, 18 days after a stroke. There is a speech she can’t get out of — 14,000 people at the University of Texas — and on the plane ride to Austin, in longhand, she sketches out a second appeal for the same “mutuality of respect.”

“We need a new politics of meaning,” she tells the crowd. “We need a new ethos of individual responsibility and caring… a society that fills us up again and makes us feel that we are part of something bigger than ourselves.”

Again, she makes news. Again, reporters come calling. And again, Clinton tries to explain. That spring, she gives a series of interviews on the subject of her beliefs — political, philosophical, and spiritual….

The speech and subsequent interviews — earnest, unembarrassed, and decidedly open — are laughed at in Washington. Columnists call her a New Age “aspiring philosopher queen.” One compares her remarks to “a cross between Jimmy Carter’s malaise speech and a term paper on Siddhartha,” with all the “distinctive marks of adolescent self-discovery.” The New Republic asks: “It is good to hear the First Lady is also pro-meaning, but before we sign on, one question: What on earth are these people talking about?”

Another two decades pass, and Hillary Clinton doesn’t sound like she did then.

This was 2015, back at that small table in New Hampshire, a couple weeks before Christmas….This was the day in June after nine people were gunned down, mid-prayer, inside their church in South Carolina. Clinton had even been there that day, in Charleston, and received the news of the shooting on the plane ride out. She was speaking at a conference on the West Coast, and that’s where it slipped out for the first time. “I know it’s not usual for somebody running for president to say what we need more of in this country is love and kindness,” she said. “But that’s exactly what we need more of.”

What an amazing article! It will be lost on the Bernie bros and the other Hillary haters, but let’s remember that Hillary Clinton is very popular in both Iowa and New Hampshire. In 2008, after Barack Obama and John Edwards ganged up on Hillary in a debate (“you’re likable enough,” Obama said) New Hampshire voters went out to the polls and gave Obama the shock of his life so far when Hillary won the primary. It’s never over until the votes are counted.

Hillary and NH Sen. Jean Shaheen

Hillary and NH Sen. Jean Shaheen

Here’s New Hampshire Senator Jean Shaheen, a Hillary supporter on the polls in her state:

“Well, listen, I think it’s always nice when you’re ahead in the polls, but I’ve been involved in politics long enough to know that the polls don’t mean much. They’re a snapshot in time and they’re based whoever you happen to reach in your polling sample,” the New Hampshire senator said to WKBK Radio on Wednesday.

“They’re gonna fluctuate. They’re go up and down,” she added, citing Clinton’s win in New Hampshire in 2008 after several polls showed that she would lose.

Sanders leads Clinton 60% to 33% in a recent poll from WMUR/CNN of Granite State voters.

“The thing that I think is important about this poll is that it shows almost half of the voters in New Hampshire that plan to vote in the Democratic primary still haven’t decided who they’re gonna vote for. So there’s still lots of room for movement in the race,” she said.

We’ll find out in the next couple of weeks.

More interesting stories, links only:

Poynter: Media strains to analyze Dems’ Iowa town hall.

Michael Cohen at The Boston Globe: Could President Sanders defeat a Republican Congress?

LA Times: Sanders turns confrontational and Clinton emphasizes her record in Iowa town hall.

Des Moines Register: Students to choose between class, caucus.

Jill Abramson on why many young women pick Sanders over Clinton: ‘Hillary, can you excite us?’: the trouble with Clinton and young women.

Rebecca Traister on Samantha Bee’s new late night show: Smirking in the Boys’ Room.

Mother Jones: This Is What Happens When We Lock Children in Solitary Confinement.

That’s all I have for you today. I hope you enjoy the rest of your Tuesday.

 

 


Open Thread: President Obama All But Endorses Hillary Clinton

hillary-clinton-obama

 

Dakinikat will have a post up later, but I just had to share this amazing interview that President Obama did with Glen Thrush of Politico. As Thrush noted in an article summing up his reactions:

Barack Obama, that prematurely gray elder statesman, is laboring mightily to remain neutral during Hillary Clinton’s battle with Bernie Sanders in Iowa, the state that cemented his political legend and secured his path to the presidency.

But in a candid 40-minute interview for POLITICO’s Off Message podcast as the first flakes of the blizzard fell outside the Oval Office, he couldn’t hide his obvious affection for Clinton or his implicit feeling that she, not Sanders, best understands the unpalatably pragmatic demands of a presidency he likens to the world’s most challenging walk-and-chew-gum exercise.

“[The] one thing everybody understands is that this job right here, you don’t have the luxury of just focusing on one thing,” a relaxed and reflective Obama told me in his most expansive discussion of the 2016 race to date.

Hillary+Clinton+Barack+Obama+Campaign+Weeks+a-JzlF_Xob_l

Here are some of my own takeaways from the interview transcript. First, there can be no doubt that Obama wants Hillary to win the nomination and the presidency. He damns Sanders with faint praise.

GLENN THRUSH: I mean, when you watch this, what do you — do you see any elements of what you were able to accomplish in what Sanders is doing?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well, there’s no doubt that Bernie has tapped into a running thread in Democratic politics that says: Why are we still constrained by the terms of the debate that were set by Ronald Reagan 30 years ago? You know, why is it that we should be scared to challenge conventional wisdom and talk bluntly about inequality and, you know, be full-throated in our progressivism? And, you know, that has an appeal and I understand that.

I think that what Hillary presents is a recognition that translating values into governance and delivering the goods is ultimately the job of politics, making a real-life difference to people in their day-to-day lives. I don’t want to exaggerate those differences, though, because Hillary is really idealistic and progressive. You’d have to be to be in, you know, the position she’s in now, having fought all the battles she’s fought and, you know, taken so many, you know, slings and arrows from the other side. And Bernie, you know, is somebody who was a senator and served on the Veterans’ Committee and got bills done.

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton congratulates President Barack Obama on the House vote to pass health care reform, prior to a meeting in the Situation Room of the White House, March 22, 2010.Ê (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza) This official White House photograph is being made available only for publication by news organizations and/or for personal use printing by the subject(s) of the photograph. The photograph may not be manipulated in any way and may not be used in commercial or political materials, advertisements, emails, products, promotions that in any way suggests approval or endorsement of the President, the First Family, or the White House.

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton congratulates President Barack Obama on the House vote to pass health care reform, prior to a meeting in the Situation Room of the White House, March 22, 2010. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

On the contrasts the media is drawing between Hillary and Bernie  (i.e. he has the enthusiasm, she’s just a boring policy wonk):

I don’t think that’s true. I think that what is — you know, if you look at both of them, I think they’re both passionate about giving everybody a shot. I think they’re both passionate about kids having a great education. I think they want to make sure everybody has health care. I think that they both believe in a tax system that is fair and not tilted towards, you know, the folks at the very top. But, you know, they — I think Bernie came in with the luxury of being a complete longshot and just letting loose.

I think Hillary came in with the — both privilege and burden of being perceived as the frontrunner. And, as a consequence, you know, where they stood at the beginning probably helps to explain why the language sometimes is different.

On the media coverage of Hillary and the failure so far of the media to vet Bernie:

GLENN THRUSH: …Do you feel like it’s a little bit unfair to her, to some extent, the way this has been stacked?

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Yeah – well, yes. But I think that Hillary is tough and she has been through this before and she could anticipate it. If you are a frontrunner, then you are under more scrutiny and everybody is going to pick you apart….

GLENNTHRUSH: …and Bernie, of course, is an untested 74-year-old kid, right?

PRESIDENTOBAMA: Yeah, yeah.

GLENNTHRUSH: So, to what extent do you think it’s appropriate for that process to be aimed at him right now?

PRESIDENTOBAMA: Well, he hasn’t won anything yet.

GLENNTHRUSH: Right.

PRESIDENT OBAMA: I think that there’s always just a rhythm to this thing. I think that if Bernie won Iowa or won New Hampshire, then you guys are going to do your jobs and, you know, you’re going to dig into his proposals and how much they cost and what does it mean, and, you know, how does his tax policy work and he’s subjected, then, to a rigor that hasn’t happened yet, but that Hillary is very well familiar with.

l_apobamahillaryx1200

On the way the Obama campaign reacted to criticism from Hillary Clinton in 2008:

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well, here’s my view: that whoever the nominee is is going to need the other person’s supporters. And I think it is entirely legitimate to draw sharp contrasts where there are contrasts and it is important, however, to maintain a tone in which people feel as if you’re playing fair. And I think Hillary has done that so far, and I think that the truth is in 2007 and 2008, sometimes my supporters and my staff, I think, got too huffy about what were legitimate questions she was raising. And, you know, there were times where I think the media probably was a little unfair to her and tilted a little my way in the — in calling her out when she was tough and not calling some of our folks out as much when we were tough in ads….

I think — look, I’ve gotten to know Hillary really well, and she is a good, smart, tough person who cares deeply about this country, and she has been in the public eye for a long time and in a culture in which new is always better. And, you know, you’re always looking at the bright, shiny object that people don’t, haven’t seen before. That’s a disadvantage to her. Bernie is somebody who —although I don’t know as well because he wasn’t, obviously, in my administration, has the virtue of saying exactly what he believes, and great authenticity, great passion, and is fearless. His attitude is, “I got nothing to lose.”

On Hillary’s strengths as a candidate:

…like any candidate, her strengths can be her weaknesses. Her strengths, which are the fact that she’s extraordinarily experienced – and, you know, wicked smart and knows every policy inside and out – sometimes could make her more cautious and her campaign more prose than poetry, but those are also her strengths. It means that she can govern and she can start here, [on] day one, more experienced than any non-vice president has ever been who aspires to this office. Her strengths, in terms of the ability to debate, the ability to, I think, project genuine concern in smaller groups and to interact with people, where folks realize she’s really warm and funny and engaging— ….

the other thing that I’ll always remember is the sheer strength, determination, endurance, stick-to-it-ness, never-give-up attitude that Hillary had during those primaries. I mean, we had as competitive and lengthy and expensive and tough primary fight as there has been in modern American politics, and she had to do everything that I had to do, except, like Ginger Rogers, backwards in heels. She had to wake up earlier than I did because she had to get her hair done. She had to, you know, handle all the expectations that were placed on her. She had a tougher job throughout that primary than I did and, you know, she was right there the entire time and, had things gone a little bit different in some states or if the sequence of primaries and caucuses been a little different, she could have easily won.

obamahillary

Finally, on the notion of a woman president:

…my No. 1 priority is having a Democratic president succeed me, and I think there’s no doubt that, given our history, I want more women in politics generally, and I want my daughters to feel that there’s nothing that they can’t do. I don’t think that Democrats are going to vote for Hillary just because she’s a woman any more than they’re going to vote for Bernie just because they agree with him on one particular issue. I think, you know, voters are pretty sophisticated. They’re going to take all these things into account. I am proud of the fact that the Democratic Party represents today the breaking down of all sorts of barriers and a belief that you judge people on what they bring to the table and not what they look like or who they love or their last name.

I’ve quoted a lot, but I still hope you’ll go read the whole interview. I wonder if Obama agreed to do this in order to boost Hillary’s chances? His comments are certainly extraordinary, and they are going to be very disconcerting to the media and to Bernie’s supporters.

What do you think?