Friday Reads

Good Morning!!!

Washington continues to be puzzled about why the economy is so bad. I watched Ben Bernanke’s presser and nothing he said sounded the least  bit surprising to me.  The Fed’s basically ending it’s QE program.  It’s keeping the discount rate low.  It also has lowered its economic outlook and believes that unemployment will stay higher than previously thought and the economy will slow down.  In answering some questions, Bernanke mentioned that austerity budgets in the states was one of the reasons the economy is doing poorly.  He also mentioned things that will likely be short-lived like supply line problems resulting from Japan’s catastrophes and bad weather.  In short, monetary policy has reached its ability to do something.  It’s up to our politicians.  May all the wisdom beings help us!

On national television today, the Federal Reserve chairman painted a picture of a recovery that, two years after it began, remains “frustratingly slow” and too weak to make a meaningful dent in joblessness anytime soon. Even if the current slowdown proves temporary, as the Fed expects, its forecast pace of growth won’t bring unemployment back down below 7 percent until after 2013.

Much more troubling is the country’s lack of a backup plan if things get worse. The economy’s weakness leaves it vulnerable to shocks of the kind that Europe’s festering sovereign-debt crisis could easily deliver. But neither the Federal Reserve nor the U.S. government is in a good position to provide more life support should it become necessary.

Having already spent some $2.3 trillion on two bond-buying programs aimed at lowering interest rates and boosting growth, Bernanke recognizes that the costs of a third round of so-called quantitative easing may outweigh the benefits.

The above Bloomberg op-ed calls for more stimulus because that’s what stops this.  We know that from a lot of data, experience, and theory.  Too bad we’d rather have the equivalents of high school graduates remove our national appendix and argue our death penalty case before the Supreme Court.  None of these folks appear to have one clue let alone the knowledge to get things done.

Meanwhile, the Republicans have left the budget talks because returning taxes to responsible levels is too politically unpalatable for them.  They’d rather rely on tanking the economy and blaming it on Obama.  The Senate Republicans are hoping that John Boehner will take the bullet for them.  We’re all going to need lessons on surviving our politicians destroying our economy.  In that sense, we could be Greece who was brought low by Wall Street Bankers who convinced them they really could fund a grandiose project like The Olympics and everything else.  We’ve spent about 10 years adding grandiose wars and feeding our Wall Street Bankers.  Of course, the people that will suffer from this will not be those bankers, or defense contractors or the politicians who are bringing us low.

Intra-caucus dynamics on the GOP side seem to be dooming the debt limit talks. Eric Cantor’s preference is for John Boehner to sign a deal he can grumble about, so that when the GOP loses seats in 2012 he can challenge Boehner for the leadership. Boehner, meanwhile, doesn’t want to sign a deal that Cantor won’t sign. Consequently, we can’t get a deal.

This, then, returns us to the subject of tactical modalities available if the country runs up to the debt ceiling. The key issue at this point becomes the fact that hitting the debt ceiling doesn’t force an automatic default or a government shutdown. Revenue continues to come in to the federal government. There’s simply a gap between how much comes in and how much the government is supposed to spend. The first step to sound policy in this case is to make sure we keep paying interest on the debt. Thus default and immediate catastrophe is avoided. Second, what you want to do is minimize the impact on government activities. That means that in the first instance you want to try to stiff people to whom the government owes money but who will probably keep working even if you don’t pay them. Take defense contractors, for example. If Robert Gates tells a bullet-making company that he can’t pay the Pentagon’s bills this month because Eric Cantor is being obstinate, but please keep sending bullets anyway, the bullet-makers aren’t going to leave our troops bullet-less. We just need to tell them to keep sending the invoices coming, and promise that all bills will be paid once Cantor relents. Hospitals, doctors, and other Medicare providers are the other low-hanging fruit here. Patients will continue to be treated, doctors will keep filing paperwork, and Kathleen Sebelius will keep reassuring people that they’ll be paid when the congressional gridlock is resolved.

Over time, of course, these tactics tend to run into limits. We may need to start paying people less than their full Social Security checks, mailing a partial benefit plus a note explaining that back benefits will be paid once congress lifts the debt ceiling.

Meanwhile, President Obama pulls a present vote while addressing a GLBT fundraiser for him last night in New York City.  He pulled the traditional republican cop-out position.  Leave the issue to the states.  Guess that means Rick Warren will be doing more prayer appearances for him this election cycle.

OBAMA: Part of the reason that DOMA doesn’t make sense is that traditionally marriage has been decided by the states and right now, I understand there is a little debate going on here in New York about whether to join five other states and DC in allowing civil marriage for gay couples. And I want to say that under the leadership of Governor Cuomo, with the support of Democrats and Republicans, New York is doing exactly what democracies are supposed to to do. There is a debate, there is a deliberation about what it means here in New York to treat people fairly in the eyes of the law and that is — look, that’s the power of our democratic system.

No, we won’t but maybe the states will.

Appearing at a “Gala with the Gay Community” fundraiser in Manhattan Thursday, President Obama said he believes “gay couples deserve the same legal rights as any other couple in this country.” But he stopped short of backing same-sex marriage, even as attendees yelled out for him to do so.

Mr. Obama, who was greeted with a standing ovation by the roughly 600 attendees — who paid between $1,250 and $35,800 to attend — said he always believed discrimination was wrong, joking that “I had no choice. I was born that way.” After a beat, amid laughter from the crowd, he added, “in Hawaii.” He went on to say that discrimination based on sexual orientation or gender identity “runs counter to who we are as a people.”

I guess discrimination is okay if you hide behind religion. Oh, wait, isn’t that what the confederates said about slavery. Let’s see, I seem to remember reading arguments about state rights and that it’s okay to own other people’s because it’s right there in the bible.

The TSA is finally listening to some of the complaints about it’s aggressive pat-down procedures and at least changing the rules for children.  It will no longer trigger automatic pat-downs for any one under the age of 12.

“As part of our ongoing effort to get smarter about security, Administrator Pistole has made a policy decision to give security officers more options for resolving screening anomalies with young children and we are working to operationalize his decision in airports,” TSA spokesman Nicholas Kimball said in a written statement. “This decision will ultimately reduce – though not eliminate – pat downs of children.”

Already widely criticized for the controversial airport security technique, the TSA has come under increased fire after reports surfaced that its officers patted down a 6-year-old girl and an 8-month-old.

There’s an interesting scandal brewing in New York that may take down Mayor Bloomberg.  You can watch more about this at Democracy Now.

Prosecutors have unsealed indictments against the company TechnoDyne and its founders in the CityTime payroll scandal in New York City, which was first exposed by Democracy Now!’s co-host Juan Gonzalez in his column for the New York Daily News. TechnoDyne executives face charges of paying millions in kickbacks to get CityTime work, and money laundering. Meanwhile, the founders of the company, Reddy Allen and his wife Padma, are now fugitives after fleeing to India. Prosecutors described CityTime as “one of the largest and most brazen frauds ever committed against the city.” Following the indictments, Gonzalez says the question remains whether top officials in the administration of New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg will also be charged.

Kansas may wind up being the first state where women cannot access abortion services.  Kansas is trying to shut down its three abortion clinics. It’s doing this by imposing immediate changes to the clinic’s physical plant.

Back in April, the state legislature passed a law directing the Kansas Department of Health and Environment to author new facility standards for abortion clinics, which the staunchly anti-abortion GOP governor, Sam Brownback, signed into law on May 16. The law also requires the health department to issue new licenses each year, and it grants additional authority to health department inspectors to conduct unannounced inspections, and to fine or shut down clinics.

The department wasted no time in drafting the new rules, issuing the final version on June 17 and informing clinics that they would have to comply with the rules by July 1, as the Associated Press reported Wednesday. Peter Brownlie, president of Planned Parenthood of Kansas and Mid-Missouri, told the AP that inspectors were expected at their clinic in Overland Park, Kansas, on Wednesday. There are only three clinics left in the state: Planned Parenthood’s, a clinic in Overland Park, and the Aid for Women clinic in Kansas City.

The new requirements require facilities to add extra bathrooms, drastically expand waiting and recovery areas, and even add larger janitor’s closets, as one clinic employee told me—changes that clinics will have a heck of a time pulling off by the deadline. Under the new rule, clinics must also aquire state certification to admit patients, a process that takes 90 to 120 days, the staffer explained. Which makes it impossible for clinics to comply. And clinics that don’t comply with the rules will face fines or possible closure.

It’s increasingly clear that the U.S. is becoming a hostile place for nearly any one that doesn’t want to comply with the narrow definitions of what’s right to a handful of Republican activists.  What’s worse is that Democrats act powerless to stop them and the Judiciary appears to be completely dysfunctional at the moment.  We’re losing more rights day by day.  There seems to be a play book and none of us are included.

What’s on your reading and blogging list this morning?


The Republican Tax Scam or why compromise the Cow when the President will give you the Milk Free?

I think it’s safe to say that no one likes paying taxes.  However, every one likes roads without pot holes, functional national defense, public safety and justice systems, and modern infrastructure that supports commerce, travel, and trade.  How can Republicans justify their just say no new taxes position when they themselves continually run up government spending for their own pet projects?  Well, that’s where they’ve decided to lie and say  that decreased taxes means more revenues. That’s also why our deficit has been spinning out of control since the Dubya Bush tax cuts.  Unfortunately, they seem to want to continue this disingenuous game rather than tell the Grover Norquists in their base to take the delusion elsewhere.

Today, the last Republican walked away from VP Biden’s bipartisan task force to find a compromise solution to the budget.  Again, the issue was the lack of Republican will to pay for anything and to stop paying for anything that the majority of the nation demands. This has gone beyond ridiculous to dangerous.   Let me point you to the Bloomberg coverage and I’ll bold the important part.

President Barack Obama likely will step into the final stages of talks to break a deadlock over a plan to cut budget deficits, his spokesman said after two Republicans dropped out of talks led by Vice President Joe Biden.

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor cited an “impasse” over tax increases in refusing along with Senator Jon Kyl to attend today’s planned negotiating session. They called for Obama to take the lead.

The move caught Democrats by surprise and raised the prospect that the Biden-led talks could collapse over taxes. Republicans insist on major spending cuts, and no tax increases, before they will agree to raise the nation’s $14.3 trillion debt ceiling. The Treasury Department says the limit must be raised by Aug. 2 or the U.S. will risk defaulting on its obligations.

“It has always been the case that these talks would proceed to a point where the remaining areas of disagreement would be addressed by leaders and the president,” White House press secretary Jay Carney told reporters aboard Air Force One. He said the Biden talks “may or may not resume” and that he had nothing to announce on the next steps.

My guess is that Republicans want Obama to “step into the final stages” for several reasons.  First, the President’s direct involvement in talks will allow them to take political advantage of any suggestions they perceive as worth exploiting.  Second, every time Obama’s come to the bargaining table, he’s caved in or basically agreed to Republican demands.  Obama agreed to extend the Dubya tax cuts to the richest of the rich violating his own promise and stepping way over his line in the sand.  Obama also took every last Democratic policy out of Health Care Reform to the point there is virtually no difference between the 1990s plan American Heritage Institute plan first introduced by then Republican Senator John Chafee and later championed by Republican Senator Bob Dole.  We don’t have Obamney Care. We have the old Dolecare.  So, the Republicans have been fairly good at getting Republican policy passed without taking any of the blame. Why would they do any thing differently?

Ezra Klein explains why he thinks Eric Cantor won’t make the budget deal here.  He thinks its because Cantor will lose credibility with Teabots.

Cantor has the credibility with the Tea Party that Boehner lacks. But that’s why Cantor won’t cut the deal. The Tea Party-types support him because he’s the guy who won’t cut the deal. He can’t sign off on tax increases without losing his power base. But if he’s able to throw it back to Boehner, and Boehner cuts the deal, that’s all good for Cantor: Boehner becomes weaker and he becomes stronger. Which is why Boehner will also have trouble making this deal. It’ll mean he made the concessions that Cantor, the true conservative, didn’t. That’s not how he holds onto the gavel in this Republican Party.

One analysis of the House GOP right now is that there are two players in the GOP who can cut a budget deal: Eric Cantor and John Boehner (and, on some of the other budget issues, Appropriations Chair Hal Rogers). One of them is going to have to do it. Which means one of them is going to lose his job. The optimistic take is that what we’re seeing right now is a game of musical chairs over which one of them it’ll be.

But the pessimistic analysis is that if you had to write a plausible scenario for how America defaults on its debt, or at least seriously spooks the market, this is how it would start. After insisting on using the debt limit as leverage for a budget deal, the Republican leadership finds they can’t actually strike a deficit-reduction deal, but nor can they go back on their promise to vote against any increase in the debt limit that isn’t accompanied by a deficit-reduction deal. What follows is a lot of jockeying and fingerpointing, a short-term increase or two, and eventually, a market panic.

Cantor is putting personal power before country here, and in a very dangerous way.

ABC News explains that Senator Kyl has dropped out for similar reasons. None of the Republicans want to be the one’s to have signed the Read My Lips, No New Taxes Pledge, then sign on to new taxes.

A Senior Democratic aide says, “Cantor and Kyl just threw Boehner and McConnell under the bus. This move is an admission that there will be a need for revenues and Cantor and Kyl don’t want to be the ones to make that deal.”

I still think that the Republicans would rather go mano-y-mano with the President than nearly any other Democrat. The hapless Senator from Nebraska–Ben Nelson–is probably the only other spineless critter that would be somewhat attractive.  The only difference is that he’s got no pull within the party.

So, here’s the Republican spin:

In a joint statement with the chief Senate Republican negotiator, Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl, McConnell followed up by portraying Obama as a champion of higher taxes at the expense of “a bipartisan plan to address our deficit. He can’t have both. But we need to hear from him.”

Cantor had sent mixed signals earlier this week, first saying that he wanted greater involvement by the president and then insisting that he remained committed to the talks led by Vice President Joe Biden. His decision now appeared to catch some in the GOP leadership, including his fellow negotiator Kyl, by surprise. And it came just as Cantor has been on the defensive in the talks over Democratic demands for greater cuts from defense spending.

Adding to the intrigue was the almost Washington novel orchestration of the announcement. The Wall Street Journal was called in to get the news Thursday morning — the editorial pages of Rupert Murdoch’s newspaper are famous for their anti-tax orthodoxy. And Cantor made his move just hours after a Wednesday night meeting at the White House between his sometimes rival, Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), and Obama, who are slated to take over the talks once the Biden negotiations have run their course.

I still can’t figure out how the Republicans can be so successful at painting the President as being something completely at odds with reality but they continue to do so successfully.  My guess is they will get the President to step in and they will get what they want.  Then, look out.  The incredibly low taxes will continue to do nothing but drain the Treasury. The incredibly high spending cuts will do nothing but tank the economy.  The dithering around the debt ceiling increase will drive market interest rates up.  In short, the current situation will deteriorate.  Then, some one completely bat shit crazy like Michelle Bachmann will continue to spin the alternate reality and the opposite of truth and facts.  To be even short, we are going to be incredibly f’d.

This feels a lot like watching a high school graduate do an appendectomy on your best friend.  The people that know what they’re doing have left the building a long time ago.


Playing Chicken with U.S. Financial Markets

You would think that being less than three years off from the biggest financial market collapse since the Great Depression would make beltway lawmakers tread lightly when it comes to upsetting financial markets here and around the world.  You would also think that after we’ve used the Fed for the most unusual transactions in its history, bailed out investment banks and insurance companies, and concentrated bank deposits and securities dealers from ‘too big to fail’ to ‘so huge they’d take the developed world down with them’ that District politicos would find a different outlet for their psuedo outrage. It’s not that they’re mad at financial institutions or what they basically did to the world’s major economies, it’s that their mad at what they did to the U.S. Federal deficit and since blaming teachers and park rangers didn’t work, they’re going to attack the U.S. Treasury Market.  That’s right, they are attacking the base risk free rate used by every asset pricing model from the CAPM forward. That’s like striking at the heart of what makes modern finance work.  Sounds kind’ve stupid doesn’t it?

Well, Tuesday’s Congressional vote on the debt ceiling was a danse macabre aimed directly at turning financial markets upside down whether they want to think so or not.  The equity markets have been dancing around a technical high most of spring and are heading downwards as we speak.  The economy has not healed.  The job market is dismal. Credit markets are still stuck on neutral. Household consumption and Consumer confidence have headed south.  What are these people trying to do our economy?  Tank it?  Finally, there’s a few media voices that are expressing concern instead of admiration for the “brave” insanity of people like Paul Ryan.  Is this coming a little too late? Is the Republican party trying to drive the cost of borrowing for every one in the world up to score a few political points with some block of voters?

Just ignore Tuesday’s vote against raising the debt ceiling, House Republican leaders whispered to Wall Street. We didn’t really vote against it, members suggested; we just sent another of our endless symbolic messages, pretending to take the nation’s credit to the brink of collapse in order to extract the maximum concessions from President Obama.

Once he caves, members said, the debt limit will be raised and the credit scare will end. And the business world apparently got the message. It’s just a “joke,” said a leader of the United States Chamber of Commerce, and Wall Street is in on it. Not everyone found it funny.

No matter how they tried to spin it, 318 House members actually voted against paying the country’s bills and keeping the promise made to federal bondholders. That’s an incredibly dangerous message to send in a softening global economy. Among the jokesters were 236 Republicans playing the politics of extortion, and 82 feckless Democrats who fret that Republicans could transform a courageous vote into a foul-smelling advertisement.

If I were the Chinese or Russian government or any other investor with the ability to transfer funds anywhere else, I would be doing so just to make a point.  Threatening to default on sovereign debt should not be considered political tool. It’s like threatening to use a weapon of mass destruction to score points.

Steven Benen of Washington Monthly calls it a “hostage strategy”. Frankly, it’s domestic terrorism with hostages.

Indeed, one of the more striking aspects of yesterday’s gathering was the increasingly-explicit nature of the Republican hostage strategy.

…Boehner’s let’s-get-a-deal-done stance masks a deeper belief within the House Republican Conference — that Obama will back down eventually and agree to its demands, forcing Capitol Hill Democrats to follow suit.

“Of course, it’s dangerous,” a House Republican close to Boehner said of the politics of a government default. “But it’s dangerous for everybody, especially the president. At the end of the day, [Obama] will have to give in.”

“Who has egg on their face if there is a sovereign debt crisis, House Republicans or the president?” asked another senior GOP lawmaker.

With a potential debt default by the U.S. government just two months off, and a continued standoff between the White House and GOP congressional leaders on how to move forward in boosting that limit, Republican lawmakers say publicly and privately that they believe Obama will be the one who has to cave.

To be sure, the hostage-strategy dynamic isn’t new, but it’s uncommon for Republican members of Congress to be this candid about their plan out loud. One leading GOP lawmaker acknowledged that the Republican plan is “dangerous,” but the party doesn’t care. Another conceded that the GOP is inviting a “sovereign debt crisis,” but figures Obama would get the blame, so Republicans don’t care about that, either.

Okay, so notice the theme here.  Obama is expected to cave and why not?  He’s drawn lines in the sand before.  Remember his promise to not extend tax cuts to the richest of the rich?  He caved.  Remember how he was going to offer a robust public option or at least an exchange with some kind of government-sponsored plan for health care reform?  He caved.  Remember all that posturing over closing Guantanamo or bringing troops home from Iraq and Afghanistan. He caved.

That’s what you get when you negotiate with terrorists and they know you’ll lead with the compromise position.  They’ll keep taking more important things hostage and wait you out.  They know this one is too big to fail but yet, they can’t resist just seeing how much they can get away with this time.  Problem is, this time it’s really having an impact.  The economy is looking as though it will double dip and requires a fiscal boost, for one.  This is like 1937 redux and I’m afraid that more mistakes will be made. I can’t believe that we have a political party that is so intent on damaging an administration that it’s going to frighten the global economy into a possibly game changing reshuffling of what the base of financial world’s ‘risk free’ rate and global safe haven currency may be in the future.  If there was ever any reason or an excuse to dump the dollar as a basis of your economy or start ridding your trade surplus savings of US Treasury holdings, this would be it. Symbolic my fat New Orleans ass!

A testy White House meeting between President Obama and House Republican leaders Wednesday failed to lower the partisan pitch in the capital, much less make progress toward a deal on the federal debt ceiling.

Instead, the two sides traded complaints, accusing each other of partisanship and posturing. Republicans demanded that the administration produce a budget-cutting plan, which the White House said it had already done.

Rep. Paul D. Ryan, architect of a Medicare overhaul aimed at slashing the cost of the popular entitlement program by reducing the government’s open-ended commitment to seniors, accused Obama of “mis-describing” his plan and implored the president to ease up on the “demagoguery.”

In reply, Obama said he was no stranger to cartoonish depictions, reeling off a list of conservatives’ favorite attack points: “I’m the death-panel-supporting, socialist, may-not-have-been-born-here president,” Obama said, according to people familiar with his remarks.

The meeting was meant to resolve pent-up grievances and move toward compromise on the deficit and the cost of healthcare for seniors. But after 75 minutes of talk in the East Room, the two sides parted company with little progress.

Johnathan Chait of The New Republic rightly accuses ‘economist’ John Taylor of the Hoover Institute of ignoring the “severe economic consequences of risking the full faith and credit of the Treasury”.  Just arguing spending cuts are good just doesn’t make sense.  This is especially true given the incredible fragile state of the U.S. economy and recovery.  Is extracting more concessions out of Obama worth global financial market turmoil?

The hack Republican answer is that spending cuts and the debt ceiling are linked, because the debt ceiling is Obama’s fault. But of course the debt ceiling has to get raised under every president, and it would have to be raised even if Obama signed the Paul Ryan budget. The debt ceiling has nothing to do with any particular policy choices — it’s just a routine vote that used to be an opportunity for the minority party to embarrass the president, which Republicans are turning into a hostage opportunity. People like Taylor are dressing this up in principle, but the only principle they can articulate is that spending cuts are good. But that same logic would allow the minority to use the debt ceiling to jack up the president over any policy disagreement at all.

So far, the markets and the world seem to think that American politicians will stop their posturing and settle down to business before the August drop dead date.  They’ve even quoted Churchill who used to say we eventually do the right thing it’s just that we don’t actually do it until the very last minute.  The deal is that not only is the brinkmanship a dangerous strategy but the further concessions–in a fragile recovery at best–are dangerous.  Obama and his cadre of lawyers have made it clear that they will concede any high ground.  Again, we have a history of Obama concessions on political promises.  The problem is that each time the concession comes, it comes at a greater cost.  Every one knew this drama would play out once Obama gave in on renewing the Bush Tax Cuts.  Every thing is negotiable and subject to concession now.  You can’t fake credibility once you’ve show yourself as having none.

Wall Street numbers look bad today.  They’ve been bad all week.  The primary concern is said to be the faltering economy. However, any one that thinks that some of this unease isn’t over the debt ceiling hostage situation kids themselves.


It’s still the Economy, and Jobs, and the stupid Bush Tax Cuts

If you do not take a path different from the path that wrecked the economy, the economy will not improve. So, why–for the umpteenth time since I started this blog 3 years ago–do I find myself writing on the same economic dynamics?  Wasn’t there supposed to be a game changing election in there somewhere?

First, we just got the news that jobless claims are up.  The new twist is that corporate profits are down.  It had to happen sooner or later.  There are only so many profits you can wring out of your business by ‘austerity’ measures like lay offs and not ordering as many office supplies.  It’s obvious the ‘Economy is still Struggling’.

Unexpectedly weak consumer spending kept the economy stuck in a slow growth gear in the first quarter and would likely struggle to regain speed amid signs of a slowdown in the pace of job creation.

Data on Thursday showed the economy expanded at an unrevised 1.8 percent annual rate in the first three months of this year, while the number of Americans claiming unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose 10,000 to 424,000 last week.

The rise in jobless claims and the weakness in first-quarter consumer spending, which offset upward revisions to business inventories and investment, set the tone for more lackluster growth this current quarter.

Some businesses were surprised by the weak consumer spending.  Their CEOs need to get out of their offices and country clubs and go see how the other 99 percent lives.  Our wealth is down because our house values keep falling.  We’ve lost at least 2-3 years of returns in our investments and pensions and many folks still haven’t recovered their pre-recession balance.  Gas prices and food prices are taking larger percentages of folks’ budgets.  The very rich are the only ones that can really fling the bucks around at this point and they can go anywhere they want to do that.  They’re not stuck with the offerings at the local strip mall.  We ignore the sluggish labor markets at our own peril.

Business investment–the smallest contributor to the GDP–was up and Government spending was down.  Exports looked better than expected but they are still a very small part of our economy these days.  This is now the seventh straight week that jobless claims were above the 400,000 mark. What is even more remarkable is that the BLS could not name any factor that could be an outlier contributing to this persistent trend.

Meanwhile, the conversation in Washington DC continues to be the Ryan budget and Medicare.  The U.S. Senate voted down the Ryan budget  I was amused by Karl Rove’s WSJ op-ed today that explained that folks would like their plan if it was just put into a populist message.  I guess when you’ve got people buying into such nonsense as decreasing taxes raises tax revenues you get to thinking that you can sell them anything with the right spin on it.   However, George Bush and the Republican Party own the Deficit.  Their cronies should be the ones to pay it down.

The nonpartisan Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has updated research that projects nearly half of public debt in 2019 will be attributable to President George W. Bush’s tax cuts plus the ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The tax cuts left the American treasury particularly vulnerable when the financial crisis hit, the CBPP reports: “The events and policies that pushed deficits to these high levels in the near term were, for the most part, not of President Obama’s making. If not for the Bush tax cuts, the deficit-financed wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the effects of the worst recession since the Great Depression (including the cost of policymakers’ actions to combat it), we would not be facing these huge deficits in the near term.”

It simply baffles me that we can’t even get the most stalwart Democratic politicians to pay attention to the miserable jobs market.  It’s two years into a Democratic administration.  Where is the will to put America back to work?


The Latest Stupid Republican Tricks: The “Default Deniers”

GOP Leadership

{Sigh….} Is there any way to be rid of these crazies? The latest Republican nutty meme is that it will be much much better for all concerned if Congress doesn’t raise the debt ceiling and the U.S. has to either cut trillions in spending or default on its debts. From Politico:

They are the newest breed of government skeptics, the swelling ranks of Republicans who don’t believe the Obama administration when it says a failure to raise the debt limit will prove catastrophic.

And they stand ready to make negotiations over raising the cap on debt as grueling as possible, making Treasury officials and Wall Street more nervous than ever that the country could suffer an unprecedented default with consequences no one can predict.

The suspicion, which once flourished on only the conservative outskirts of economic circles, has seeped into the mainstream in recent weeks, gaining broader acceptance among establishment Republicans, even as the administration issues increasingly dire warnings.

House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) validated the default deniers Sunday, saying, “I understand the doubts.” Jim Nussle, a budget director under former President George W. Bush, argued last week that “no one’s going to default” if Congress misses the Aug. 2 deadline. And Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions, the top Republican on the Budget Committee, accused the White House of scare tactics similar to those used by the previous administration to win quick approval of the 2008 bank bailout after the markets crashed.

Via Think Progress, Rush Limbaugh yesterday responded to the Politico article by leaping aboard the GOP elephant just as it began to topple off the cliff. Limbaugh announced on his radio program that refusing to raise the debt ceiling will help the country’s credit rating.

LIMBAUGH: Today I claim the mantle. I proudly and honestly come to you today as the Mr. Big of the default deniers. We will not default on anything. And moreover, it is more likely that the country’s creditworthiness would go up around the world since we would finally be doing something to address our out-of-control spending and indebtedness if we were not to raise the debt limit. We would be perceived around the world as serious for a change, and responsible for a change. Otherwise we are headed for junk bond status.

I’m no economist, but according to Dakinikat Alan S. Blinder is a really good one, and he wrote an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal today. Here is his analysis of what could happen if the Republicans get their way on the debt ceiling.

What happens if we crash into the debt ceiling? Nobody really knows, but it’s not likely to be pretty. Inflows and outflows of cash to and from the Treasury jump around from day to day as bills are paid and revenues arrive. But at average fiscal 2011 rates, receipts cover only about 60% of expenditures. So if we hit the borrowing wall traveling at full speed, the U.S. government’s total outlays—a complex amalgam that includes everything from Social Security benefits to soldiers’ pay to interest on the national debt—will have to drop by about 40% immediately.

The bottom line is that Timmy Geithner will have to decide whether to pay soldiers and old folks or pay China other foreign creditors. I guess that’s what the Republicans are hoping for–that it will spell the end of the entire social safety net. But they don’t seem to be thinking very long-term. Do they really believe Americans will passively allow that to happen? Back to Blinder:

If and when the time comes, Mr. Geithner and his boss will have to decide. But here’s one prediction: Defaulting on the national debt will not be their first choice. After all, the statue of Alexander Hamilton at the Treasury entrance reminds Mr. Geithner every day of the importance of maintaining the nation’s creditworthiness. Even if we hit the debt ceiling, maturing obligations still can be rolled over. And I’ll bet he will bend every effort to make the interest payments, too. Unfortunately, however, when you’re 40% short, not much can be ruled out.

Exactly. Geithner is going to choose to pay China, not the elderly and disabled–that’s what the Republicans are counting on. But that will be a choice between chaos in the world economy and mass uprisings on the domestic front–or we might get both. According to Blinder a contraction in the U.S. economy like the one the Republicans are pushing us toward could lead to world-wide financial panic. According to Blinder:

…suppose the federal government actually does reduce its expenditures by 40% overnight. That translates to roughly $1.5 trillion at annual rates, or about 10% of GDP. That’s an enormous fiscal contraction for any economy to withstand, never mind one in a sluggish recovery with 9% unemployment. Even contemplating such a possibility is evidence of a dark, self-destructive impulse.

Second, markets now assign essentially zero probability to the U.S. losing its fiscal mind. They’d be caught flat-footed if the threat of default suddenly started to look real, possibly triggering a world-wide financial panic. Remember how markets reacted to the Lehman Brothers surprise? As Mr. Geithner pointed out in New York on Tuesday, “As we saw in the fall of 2008, when confidence turns, it can turn with brutal force and with a momentum that is very difficult and costly to arrest.”

And Blinder isn’t even considering what the reaction would be among ordinary Americans here at home when the economy completely tanks and there is no social safety net whatsoever.