Too Much Breaking News to Handle (Open Thread)
Posted: April 19, 2013 Filed under: just because | Tags: open thread 93 CommentsThe younger brother is held up in a boat in the back yard of a Boston Suburb. You can only wonder what’s going through his head and how his older brother got him into all this. One part of Watertown, Mass has a bird’s eye view of history and tragedy. Is this kid an accidental terrorist? Information on his brother indicates a piece of work that was on the radar of the FBI two years ago andhad a police record of domestic violence. The one in the boat is an American citizen and seems to have the profile of a hapless pothead and shy kid looking for direction. I can only imagine the simplification of this situation that will come from the small narrow minds of the right wing. So, now we can debate how to frame two deadender brothers of an immigrant family vs. the Sandy Hook Shooter and all the rest of our troubled young men? This seems a lot more like that kind of shooting to me than it does an event like 9-11. Here’s hoping we can just get some real understanding on how to prevent these things and go beyond the memes of the day. How do these young men get so troubled that that go off and do horrible things like this?
Friday Reads: Make Love not War
Posted: April 19, 2013 Filed under: Afghanistan, Anti-War, children, Domestic terrorism, Drone Warfare, Egypt, Foreign Affairs, Great Britain, India, Iraq, Israel, morning reads, Saudi Arabia, Syria | Tags: Bombings Boston, Bombings Cambodia and Laos, Bombings Gaza, bombings India, Bombings Iraq, Bombings Ireland, Bombings London, Bombings Spain, Bombings Syria, gun violence 81 Comments
Good Morning!
We certainly have created a lot of ways to destroy each other haven’t we? We also seem to breed a lot of individuals that are capable of doing great harm without reservation. This week has brought the carnage once again into our back yard. It is important to remember that we have brought and are bringing worse carnage and that we are not alone in our experience.
We have sophisticated drones that appear to take out as many innocents as they do bad guys. Just yesterday in Baghdad, a suicide bomber killed 26 in a crowded cafe. Less than a month ago, 2 blasts occurred in a busy shopping district of Hyderabad, India. These twin blasts killed 14 people and injured 119. Seventeen were injured today in Bangalore in a car bomb blast. Neither India or Boston are war zones. Baghdad was not a war zone until we invaded it. We left it to whatever it is today.
Then, there is the daily amount of gun violence in the country. Let me return to Boston for this perspective.
Boston Police Commissioner Edward F. Davis said today that he hopes to cut gun crimes in half this summer during Boston’s most violent months: July and August, when the city typically sees between 37 and 48 shootings each month.
The department’s ranks were boosted as 28 members of the force were promoted and one new officer was named during a ceremony this morning.
Davis said those promotions represent the department’s efforts to fill vacancies in preparation for the summertime.
“We’re going to have a full court press on those months this year,” said Davis. “We’re gonna do a lot of preventive work leading up to those months. There’s gonna be a significant amount of attention paid to the impact players in the city. We want them to put their weapons down.”
Nationally, we experience 88 gun deaths a day. There have been about 3,524 gun deaths in this country since the Sandy Hook Slaughter. As you carefully read that sign made by the youngest victim of the Boston Bombs above, consider this:
… a child in the U.S is about 13 times more likely to be a victim of a firearm-related homicide than children in most other industrialized nations.
Firearms were the third leading cause of injury-related deaths nationwide in 2010, following poisoning and motor vehicle accidents, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
For the sake of comparison, in 2010 there were more than twice as many firearms deaths in the U.S. than terrorism-related deaths worldwide.
Then consider how completely ignorant most people are of our violent legacies to other countries. Think of mass murderers of the 20th century, and then read this.
Mr. Kissinger’s most significant historical act was executing Richard Nixon’s orders to conduct the most massive bombing campaign, largely of civilian targets, in world history. He dropped 3.7 million tons of bombs** between January 1969 and January 1973 – nearly twice the two million dropped on all of Europe and the Pacific in World War II. He secretly and illegally devastated villages throughout areas of Cambodia inhabited by a U.S. Embassy-estimated two million people; quadrupled the bombing of Laos and laid waste to the 700-year old civilization on the Plain of Jars; and struck civilian targets throughout North Vietnam – Haiphong harbor, dikes, cities, Bach Mai Hospital – which even Lyndon Johnson had avoided. His aerial slaughter helped kill, wound or make homeless an officially-estimated six million human beings**, mostly civilians who posed no threat whatsoever to U.S. national security and had committed no offense against it.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a staunch supporter of the U.S. drone wars, Wednesday become the first government official to put a number on the estimated drone strike death toll.
“We’ve killed 4,700,” Graham said during a speech at a South Carolina rotary club, reported on by the local Easley Patch and flagged by Al Jazeera.
“This is the first time a US official has put a total number on it,” said Micah Zenko, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations told Al Jazeera, but Graham’s office stated that the senator was only repeating “the figure that has been publicly reported and disseminated on cable news.” Graham’s figure aligns with estimates from groups included the U.K.-based Bureau of Investigative Journalism (BIJ), which has calculate that between 3,072 and 4,756 people have been killed by U.S. drones in Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia.
Graham’s figure did not distinguish between “combatant” and “civilian” casualties — a distinction which has, in the War on Terror, prompted debate. But the senator did reportedly say, “Sometimes you hit innocent people, and I hate that, but we’re at war, and we’ve taken out some very senior members of al-Qaida.”
I’d like to know why some acts of violence attract so much attention and outrage? Tons of folks have been out in their virtual scooby vans warping into the witch hunt version of Encyclopedia Brown trying to finger the ‘dark skinned’ individuals that could’ve set the bombs on the Boston Marathon route. Have any of these idiots ever looked at the gun death rate in their own town or state? Have they ever concerned the morality of bombing wedding celebrations? Are they still taking Henry Kissinger or Donald Rumsfeld seriously? Have they possibly cracked a paper to find out exactly how many bombings happen on this planet and how many of them we commit? For that matter, why aren’t they looking for guys that look like Timothy McVeigh or Eric Rudolph? Ever been to London and tried to find a trash can?
In London, public trash cans are hard to come by, as they’re an easy receptacle for bombs. Which makes it hard to throw things away properly! Now, the city is going to bring trash cans back, but they’re going to be big, hulking masses, totally bomb-proof and equipped with LCD screens to tell you the days news as you throw away your coffee cup.
Traveling to Europe–especially London–in the 1970s and 1980s included an introduction to basic instructions on what to do if a bomb went off and what to do to avoid being in an area that was likely subject to bombing. There are still Basque separatists bombing Spain. We’re coming up on the anniversary of Bloody Sunday. I was in Europe a lot in 1972 and it was like the year of the bomb over there. But, again, there was Kissinger too. It was the year I learned not to look or sound overly American.
Hundreds of thousands of innocent human beings in Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam were forced to live in holes and caves, like animals. Many tens of thousands were burned alive by the bombs, slowly dying in agony. Others were buried alive, as they gradually suffocated to death when a 500 pound bomb exploded nearby. Most were victims of antipersonnel bombs designed primarily to maim not kill, many of the survivors carrying the metal, jagged or plastic pellets in their bodies for the rest of their lives.
Then, riddle me this. What is the difference between setting bombs on the street filled with crowds, or a bomb in a cafe, or a drone that hits a wedding or having one Texas “Job Creator” callously killing an entire city and a lot of its inhabitants because he just doesn’t want to be bothered with work place safety regulations or say, proper placement of a dangerous plant to start out with? I mean what exactly do you call a guy that runs a business that blows up an entire town and kills–at this point in time–35 people including 10 first responders? (That’s a link to CNN and USA Today so consider it with care.)
It really bothers me that we–as a nation–appear to have selective attention on what kind of violence gets our shock and attention and what kinds of violence we choose to ignore every day, every year, or in the case of the atrocities of Kissinger, every decade or four. We have had some horrific carnage recently. We’ve had children slaughtered in their classroom. We’ve had folks standing on the street celebrating a holiday ending up in hospital with wounds severe enough to warrant the kinds of amputees soldiers need in Afghanistan. This is horrific, but it does not operate in a vacuum or a world where we have done no wrong or where these kinds of events are rare.
So, call me Debbie Downer and tell me to get my unpatriotic ass out of the country or call me insensitive. I want to see a consistent and strong level of outrage, shock, and trauma displayed for all innocent victims of unspeakable violence. The hometowns of all of these victims should be our hometowns.
Here is a great question from a great writer, Juan Cole. Can the Boston Bombings increase our Sympathy for Iraq and Syria, for all such Victims?
The idea of three dead, several more critically wounded, and over a 100 injured, merely for running in a marathon (often running for charities or victims of other tragedies) is terrible to contemplate. Our hearts are broken for the victims and their family and friends, for the runners who will not run again.
There is negative energy implicit in such a violent event, and there is potential positive energy to be had from the way that we respond to it. To fight our contemporary pathologies, the tragedy has to be turned to empathy and universal compassion rather than to anger and racial profiling. Whatever sick mind dreamed up this act did not manifest the essence of any large group of people. Terrorists and supremacists represent only themselves, and always harm their own ethnic or religious group along with everyone else.
The negative energies were palpable. Fox News contributor Erik Rush tweeted, “Everybody do the National Security Ankle Grab! Let’s bring more Saudis in without screening them! C’mon!” When asked if he was already scapegoating Muslims, he replied, ““Yes, they’re evil. Let’s kill them all.” Challenged on that, he replied, “Sarcasm, idiot!” What would happen, I wonder, if someone sarcastically asked on Twitter why, whenever there is a bombing in the US, one of the suspects everyone has to consider is white people? I did, mischievously and with Mr. Rush in mind, and was told repeatedly that it wasn’t right to tar all members of a group with the brush of a few. They were so unselfconscious that they didn’t seem to realize that this was what was being done to Muslims!
Indeed, sympathy for Boston’s victims has come from around the world from places like Iraq that we’ve plastered with bombs not that long ago. Condemnation for this act came from elected officials in Egypt from the Muslim Brotherhood which has been absolutely slathered with the mark of satan by the likes of our elected officials like whacko Michelle Bachmann. This part of Cole’s essay really got to me and I was already teary eyed hearing about Jane and Martin Richard from their school’s headmaster on Last Word.
Some Syrians and Iraqis pointed out that many more people died from bombings and other violence in their countries on Monday than did Americans, and that they felt slighted because the major news networks in the West (which are actually global media) more or less ignored their carnage but gave wall to wall coverage of Boston.
Aljazeera English reported on the Iraq bombings, which killed some 46 in several cities, and were likely intended to disrupt next week’s provincial election.
Over the weekend, Syrian regime fighter jets bombed Syrian cities, killing two dozen people, including non-combatants:
What happened in Boston is undeniably important and newsworthy. But so is what happened in Iraq and Syria. It is not the American people’s fault that they have a capitalist news model, where news is often carried on television to sell advertising. The corporations have decided that for the most part, Iraq and Syria aren’t what will attract Nielsen viewers and therefore advertising dollars. Given the global dominance by US news corporations, this decision has an impact on coverage in much of the world.
Here is a video by the United Nations High Commission on Refugees (UNHCR) on the dilemma of the over one million displaced Syrians, half of them children:
So I’d like to turn the complaint on its head. Having experienced the shock and grief of the Boston bombings, cannot we in the US empathize more with Iraqi victims and Syrian victims? Compassion for all is the only way to turn such tragedies toward positive energy.
Perhaps some Americans, in this moment of distress, will be willing to be also distressed over the dreadful conditions in which Syrian refugees are living, and will be willing to go to the aid of Oxfam’s Syria appeal. Some of those Syrians living in refugee camps in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey were also hit by shrapnel or lost limbs. Perhaps some of us will donate to them in the name of our own Boston Marathon victims of senseless violence.
Terrorism has no nation or religion. But likewise its victims are human beings, precious human beings, who must be the objects of compassion for us all.
It is absolutely true that the shortcomings of our press this week were on parade this week. They basically spent hour-after-hour in what seemed like a glorified witch hunt. But there is a bigger injustice and short coming. Other people around the world–suffering and dying–deserve to have their stories told also. Every innocent victim of violence deserves justice and recognition. This is true of those 88 who die every day in this country from guns. It is true of all those killed by state violence be it ours or Bashar al-Assad or the crazy jerks that set of bombs on streets all over the world or fire military style weapons in our schools and movie theaters. All of this should cause the press to do its job and it should cause our hearts to grieve equally. Why obsess minute by minute on one act when there is a world full of them to choose from? Why not give all of the victims of violence their due?
So, what is on your reading and blogging list today?
Tax Day, Oklahama City, the Atlanta Olympics and the Return of the Ricin Letters
Posted: April 17, 2013 Filed under: Breaking News | Tags: bombers, breaking news, Lone Wolf Killers, ricin letters 87 Comments
The Lone Wolf has long been a literary and movie character type. I always think of the old spaghetti westerns–like High Plains Drifter–and Clinton Eastwood. The Lone Wolf is a popular Manga character in Japan too. He’s a samurai that has a lot in common with Eastwood’s scruffy cowboy in poncho persona. The Lone Wolf in the criminal justice system has come to represent more of a pathetic, extremely disturbed man that kills people in an attempt to make some kind of statement. You can think Eric Rudolph–the Clinic and Olympics bomber–when you think of this profile. The last big Lone Wolf killer who did serious damage was the Sikh Mosque shooter.
Wade Michael Page, the alleged killer, according to multiple news sources was a 40 year old Army veteran with a hate symbol tattoo who received a demotion and a less than honorable discharge from the military in 1998 for “patterns of misconduct” according to CNN after six years of service, finishing up at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. Disgruntled military veteran killers like Nidal Hassan (who was in the Army), Holocaust Museum shooter James von Brunn, Olympic and clinic bomber Eric Robert Rudolph as well as executed Oklahoma City Bomber Timothy McVeigh and D.C. Sniper John Allen Muhammad (the latter two had accomplices), have led many to mechanistically conclude that military service is part of a profile of loner extremists.
The real story is far more complex, as it is more likely that a first responder or victim to a mass shooting will be a military veteran than the shooter. Irrespective of their military status, these kind of killers are often depressed, socially and psychologically itinerant adult males whose significant and defining life setbacks in career or relationships create a festering anger that explodes into violence against a symbolic target. These targeted locations and innocent people are the sincere focus of aggression in the contorted thinking of someone whose anger and belief system leads them to settle a score and reaffirm their self worth by achieving notoriety through violence. A violent act transforms them from losers to warriors for a cause that is bigger than they are, and they are hitting back, not only on behalf of themselves, but for others who faced similar unfairness from an uncaring society.
The three main categories of extremist aggressors are listed below, and usually one is the primary element with an offender, with at least one other playing a secondary supporting role:
. The Ideologically Motivated (Religious, Political or Hybrid)
. The Psychologically Dangerous (Sociopath or Cognitively Impaired)
. Personal Benefit or Revenge
Two significant stories are developing this afternoon. The first is that the bomb types used by the Boston Bomber are thought to be of the type most used by a lone wolf killer.
The devices used in the Boston Marathon attack Monday are typical of the “lone wolf:” the solo terrorist who builds a bomb on his own by following a widely available formula.
In this case, the formula seems very similar to one that al Qaeda has recommended to its supporters around the world as both crudely effective and difficult to trace. But it is also a recipe that has been adopted by extreme right-wing individuals in the United States.
The threat of the “lone wolf” alarms the intelligence community.
“This is what you worry about the most,” a source with knowledge of the investigation told CNN’s Chief Political Analyst Gloria Borger. “No trail, no intelligence.”
Officials have told CNN that among the materials used in the attack on the marathon were some sort of timing device, a basic mixture of explosives and some sort of metal container containing nails and other projectiles. The FBI said late Tuesday that what appeared to be fragments of ball bearings, or BBs, and nails had been recovered and had possibly been contained in a pressure cooker.
One federal law enforcement source told CNN’s Deborah Feyerick the devices contained “low-velocity improvised explosive mixture — perhaps flash-powder or sugar chlorate mixture likely packed with nails or shrapnel.”
An explosives expert told CNN the yellowness of the flame probably came from carbon or some organic fuel such as sugar that contains it. The expert, who is frequently consulted by the FBI and other government agencies, said the white smoke made it “unlikely that a military-grade high explosive, such as those used in shells and bombs, which is usually grey or black, was used.”
U.S. Rep. Mike McCaul, chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, said “most likely gun powder” was used in the devices.
The breaking news this morning is that President Obama has received a Ricin-laced letter. Two other Washington Congressional members also received letters. The Senate Building is being evacuated because of a number of suspicious packages.
Authorities said Wednesday they had intercepted a letter to the White House that tested positive for ricin poison.
The Secret Service acknowledged the letter addressed to President Obama contained a suspicious substance, and the FBI later said tests showed it was ricin, the same deadly poison sent in a letter addressed to Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.). The Wicker letter was made public on Tuesday.
The Secret Service said the letter was sent to Obama on April 16 and was discovered at an remote White House mail screening facility.”This facility routinely identifies letters or parcels that require secondary screening or scientific testing before delivery,” the Secret Service said in a statement. “The Secret Service White House mail screening facility is a remote facility, not located near the White House complex, that all White House mail goes through.”
The agency said it is working closely with the U.S. Capitol Police and the FBI in the investigation.
White House press secretary Jay Carney said Obama had been briefed twice on the investigation. “He was briefed last night and again this morning,” Carney said.
They may have a man in mind for these letters.
(UPDATE 12:00 p.m. ET)
Capitol Hill Police are questioning a man with a backpack in the area of the Hart Senate Office Building. He raised suspicions with the contents of his backpack and the way he responded to police questions, two Capitol Hill police officers told CNN. The man’s backpack contained sealed envelopes, one of the officers said. The backpack is being X-rayed, one of the officers said.(POSTED 11:43 a.m. ET)
U.S. Capitol Police are evacuating the first floor of the Hart Senate Office Building due to a suspicious package. People on other floors of the building are being told to go into their offices. Separately, there is a suspicious envelope at the office of Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama, in the Russell Senate Office Building. Security has cleared the hall but is not officially evacuating.
It drives me nuts that so many whacked political right wingers immediately jump on the islamic conspiracy bandwagon for events like these. It’s so bad that some poor Saudi who was a victim of the Boston Bomber was tackled while he was injured. Right Wing paranoia blogs began to publish the poor guys name as a possible suspect when he was being questioned by the FBI as a witness. All you have to do is read the ratfucker blogs and the crazy go nutters like Geller to see how some of these lone wolves get their paranoia juiced.
A twenty-year-old man who had been watching the Boston Marathon had his body torn into by the force of a bomb. He wasn’t alone; a hundred and seventy-six people were injured and three were killed. But he was the only one who, while in the hospital being treated for his wounds, had his apartment searched in “a startling show of force,” as his fellow-tenants described it to the Boston Herald, with a “phalanx” of officers and agents and two K9 units. He was the one whose belongings were carried out in paper bags as his neighbors watched; whose roommate, also a student, was questioned for five hours (“I was scared”) before coming out to say that he didn’t think his friend was someone who’d plant a bomb—that he was a nice guy who liked sports. “Let me go to school, dude,” the roommate said later in the day, covering his face with his hands and almost crying, as a Fox News producer followed him and asked him, again and again, if he was sure he hadn’t been living with a killer.
Why the search, the interrogation, the dogs, the bomb squad, and the injured man’s name tweeted out, attached to the word “suspect”? After the bombs went off, people were running in every direction—so was the young man. Many, like him, were hurt badly; many of them were saved by the unflinching kindness of strangers, who carried them or stopped the bleeding with their own hands and improvised tourniquets. “Exhausted runners who kept running to the nearest hospital to give blood,” President Obama said. “They helped one another, consoled one another,” Carmen Ortiz, the U.S. Attorney for Massachusetts, said. In the midst of that, according to a CBS News report, a bystander saw the young man running, badly hurt, rushed to him, and then “tackled” him, bringing him down. People thought he looked suspicious.
What made them suspect him? He was running—so was everyone. The police reportedly thought he smelled like explosives; his wounds might have suggested why. He said something about thinking there would be a second bomb—as there was, and often is, to target responders. If that was the reason he gave for running, it was a sensible one. He asked if anyone was dead—a question people were screaming. And he was from Saudi Arabia, which is around where the logic stops. Was it just the way he looked, or did he, in the chaos, maybe call for God with a name that someone found strange?
We simply cannot deal with the idea that we have a culture that seems to breed these very angry and disturbed men. Most of them appear to be heavily anti-government and focused on stockpiling weapons of all kinds. They bear many grudges. Of course, Norway just had its own Lone Wolf that shot up a bunch of teenagers at a summer camp but the US gets more than its share and they have easy access to horrible weapons here. The most scary things about the Lone Wolf Killer is that there is usually no way to unmask him until he has done a hell of a lot of damage.
There are some good sources to read about this phenomenon.
The Dumb Math Error Heard ‘Round the World
Posted: April 16, 2013 Filed under: Austerity, U.S. Economy | Tags: austerity fail, math fail, Reinhart & Rogoff (2010) 47 Comments
Rarely has any one study had such an immediate impact on global policy. Usually, folks wait until a study is replicated and put through robust follow-up before any one takes research to heart. Reinhart & Rogoff (2010) basically played into the narrative of the plutocracy and what the ‘very serious people’ around the world wanted. So, its significant findings were taken very seriously before all those secondary tests of robustness and such were undertaken. Well, now we find out the wunderkind study that justified a lot of unnecessary austerity has some serious math mistakes. I’m still reading through all the criticisms but, as Krugman puts it “Holy Coding Error, Batman”! Let’s just call this some serious MATH FAIL!
The intellectual edifice of austerity economics rests largely on two academic papers that were seized on by policy makers, without ever having been properly vetted, because they said what the Very Serious People wanted to hear. One was Alesina/Ardagna on the macroeconomic effects of austerity, which immediately became exhibit A for those who wanted to believe in expansionary austerity. Unfortunately, even aside from the paper’s failure to distinguish between episodes in which monetary policy was available and those in which it wasn’t, it turned out that their approach to measuring austerity was all wrong; when the IMF used a measure that tracked actual policy, it turned out that contractionary policy was contractionary.
The other paper, which has had immense influence — largely because in the VSP world it is taken to have established a definitive result — was Reinhart/Rogoff on the negative effects of debt on growth. Very quickly, everyone “knew” that terrible things happen when debt passes 90 percent of GDP.
Some of us never bought it, arguing that the observed correlation between debt and growth probably reflected reverse causation. But even I never dreamed that a large part of the alleged result might reflect nothing more profound than bad arithmetic.
The best explanation of the problem that I’ve seen comes from Mike Konczal at RortyBomb.
In 2010, economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff released a paper, “Growth in a Time of Debt.” Their “main result is that…median growth rates for countries with public debt over 90 percent of GDP are roughly one percent lower than otherwise; average (mean) growth rates are several percent lower.” Countries with debt-to-GDP ratios above 90 percent have a slightly negative average growth rate, in fact.
This has been one of the most cited stats in the public debate during the Great Recession. Paul Ryan’s Path to Prosperity budget states their study “found conclusive empirical evidence that [debt] exceeding 90 percent of the economy has a significant negative effect on economic growth.” The Washington Post editorial board takes it as an economic consensus view, stating that “debt-to-GDP could keep rising — and stick dangerously near the 90 percent mark that economists regard as a threat to sustainable economic growth.”
Is it conclusive? One response has been to argue that the causation is backwards, or that slower growth leads to higher debt-to-GDP ratios. Josh Bivens and John Irons made this case at the Economic Policy Institute. But this assumes that the data is correct. From the beginning there have been complaints that Reinhart and Rogoff weren’t releasing the data for their results (e.g. Dean Baker). I knew of several people trying to replicate the results who were bumping into walls left and right – it couldn’t be done.
In a new paper, “Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogoff,” Thomas Herndon, Michael Ash, and Robert Pollin of the University of Massachusetts, Amherst successfully replicate the results. After trying to replicate the Reinhart-Rogoff results and failing, they reached out to Reinhart and Rogoff and they were willing to share their data spreadhseet. This allowed Herndon et al. to see how how Reinhart and Rogoff’s data was constructed.
They find that three main issues stand out. First, Reinhart and Rogoff selectively exclude years of high debt and average growth. Second, they use a debatable method to weight the countries. Third, there also appears to be a coding error that excludes high-debt and average-growth countries. All three bias in favor of their result, and without them you don’t get their controversial result.
Whenever you model a system, you have to make some assumptions going in. These assumptions–coupled with the coding error–basically
show the statistician’s slight of hand. You can prove just about everything and anything with numbers if you manipulate the data enough. The UMAss-Amherst professor et al has really pulled the curtain away from the big green talking head this time. Here’s the abstract.
Herndon, Ash and Pollin replicate Reinhart and Rogoff and find that coding errors, selective exclusion of available data, and unconventional weighting of summary statistics lead to serious errors that inaccurately represent the relationship between public debt and GDP growth among 20 advanced economies in the post-war period. They find that when properly calculated, the average real GDP growth rate for countries carrying a public-debt-to-GDP ratio of over 90 percent is actually 2.2 percent, not -0:1 percent as published in Reinhart and Rogoff. That is, contrary to RR, average GDP growth at public debt/GDP ratios over 90 percent is not dramatically different than when debt/GDP ratios are lower.
The authors also show how the relationship between public debt and GDP growth varies significantly by time period and country. Overall, the evidence we review contradicts Reinhart and Rogoff’s claim to have identified an important stylized fact, that public debt loads greater than 90 percent of GDP consistently reduce GDP growth.
Shorter Abstract: They REALLY screwed the pooch.
So, there’s now this bigger problem out there which is the very serious people that are crashing economies based on a set of very biased assumptions and a very serious coding error. To put that in a more politically correct way: How Much Unemployment Was Caused by Reinhart and Rogoff’s Arithmetic Mistake? Followed by, will the very serious people correct their very serious policy errors now?
This is a big deal because politicians around the world have used this finding from R&R to justify austerity measures that have slowed growth and raised unemployment. In the United States many politicians have pointed to R&R’s work as justification for deficit reduction even though the economy is far below full employment by any reasonable measure. In Europe, R&R’s work and its derivatives have been used to justify austerity policies that have pushed the unemployment rate over 10 percent for the euro zone as a whole and above 20 percent in Greece and Spain. In other words, this is a mistake that has had enormous consequences.
In fairness, there has been other research that makes similar claims, including more recent work by Reinhardt and Rogoff. But it was the initial R&R papers that created the framework for most of the subsequent policy debate. And HAP has shown that the key finding that debt slows growth was driven overwhelmingly by the exclusion of 4 years of data from New Zealand.
If facts mattered in economic policy debates, this should be the cause for a major reassessment of the deficit reduction policies being pursued in the United States and elsewhere. It should also cause reporters to be a bit slower to accept such sweeping claims at face value.
I spent most of Monday’s Morning Reads showing the current US economic data that shows that the deficit and debt of the US are melting like the wicked witch under that bucket of water. I worry any more deficit reduction will throw our economy into recession and pave the way for Republican take over of the Senate. However, the big green talking heads have been ignoring the data and just about everything else that a legion of economists have said citing this one–now clearly known to be flawed–study. As Krugman mentioned in his blogs, their results was counter-intuitive and controversial among economists from day one of publication. Policymakers through out Europe and the US gratuitously ignored all that because the questions did not fit their plan to push the mistakes of banks on a lot of hapless citizenry.
This is literally the most influential article cited in public and policy debates about the importance of debt stabilization, so naturally this is going to change everything.
Or, rather, it will change nothing. As I’ve said many times, citations of the Reinhart/Rogoff result in a policy context obviously appealing to a fallacious form of causal inference. There is an overwhelming theoretical argument that slow real growth will lead to a high debt:GDP ratio and thus whether or not you can construct a dataset showing a correlation between the two tells us absolutely nothing about whether high debt loads lead to small growth. The correct causal inference doesn’t rule out causation in the direction Reinhart and Rogoff believe in, but the kind of empirical study they’ve conducted couldn’t possibly establish it. To give an example from another domain, you might genuinely wonder if short kids are more likely to end up malnourished because they’re not good at fighting for food or something. A study where you conclude that short stature and malnourishment are correlated would give us zero information about this hypothesis, since everyone already knows that malnourishment leads to stunted growth. There might be causation in the other direction as well, but a correlation study woudn’t tell you.
The fact that Reinhart/Rogoff was widely cited despite its huge obvious theoretical problems leads me to confidently predict that the existence of equally huge, albeit more subtle, empirical problems won’t change anything either. As of 2007 there was a widespread belief among elites in the United States and Europe that reductions in retirement benefits were desirable, and subsequent events regarding economic crisis and debt have simply been subsumed into that longstanding view.
The very serious policymakers were looking for any justification for their austerity pogrom. This is mainly because German taxpayers and pols don’t want to be on the hook for what German and US bankers did around the Eurozone. It is also because Republican law makers and their plutocratic overlords–like the Dr. Strangelove of Wall Street Pete Peterson–don’t want any funds floating around anywhere that could possibly find residency in their fee-churning ponzi schemes of investment funds.
It is not unusual, unfortunately, for some academics to neatly choose assumptions to drive results towards their hypothesis. That is why peer review is extremely important. Nearly every major study done using empirical data should be easily replicated. It is usual for the authors to share their database and R&R obliged on this matter. But, this emphasizes why major studies with major findings that don’t fit snugly with the current body of theory should undergo robust challenge. Many economists had challenged the findings back in 2010 and the fact that some felt compelled to repeat their research indicated a healthy level of skepticism which is the hallmark of good research and researchers.
What is most disturbing about this is that agendas that drive the interests of a few start to reflect these theories-in-process. R&R 2010 fit the gross ambitions of people that were less concerned about truth than philosophy and ability to drive policy that basically is at odds with everything we’ve known about fiscal policy. So, this takes us back to Matt’s question. There is incredible discussion on this in nearly all economics and finance blogs and circles. Will these findings engender the same discussion and any course correction of the very serious people that used this very serious paper to do some very serious damage around the world.
I know it’s too much to hear those wonderful words ” We were wrong” on top of some course corrections. But, hey it’s not too late for our President to give up the debt and deficit hysteria or is it?
Monday Morning Reads
Posted: April 15, 2013 Filed under: morning reads | Tags: child welfare, high unemployment, Income Inequality 19 Comments
Good Morning!
Well, today is tax avoidance day for Romney and his ilk. The rest of us have to settle with the IRS today. That’s even true for the folks that have been on unemployment for a terribly long time. There are no treasure isles for them.
There are two labor markets nowadays. There’s the market for people who have been out of work for less than six months, and the market for people who have been out of work longer. The former is working pretty normally, and the latter is horribly dysfunctional. That was the conclusion of recent research I highlighted a few months ago by Rand Ghayad, a visiting scholar at the Boston Fed and a PhD candidate in economics at Northeastern University, and William Dickens, a professor of economics at Northeastern University, that looked at Beveridge curves for different ages, industries, and education levels to see who the recovery is leaving behind.
Okay, so what is a Beveridge curve? Well, it just shows the relationship between job openings and unemployment. There should be a pretty stable relationship between the two, assuming the labor market isn’t broken. The more openings there are, the less unemployment there should be. If that isn’t true, if the Beveridge curve “shifts up” as more openings don’t translate into less unemployment, then it might be a sign of “structural” unemployment. That is, the unemployed just might not have the right skills. Now, what Ghayad and Dickens found is that the Beveridge curves look normal across all ages, industries, and education levels, as long as you haven’t been out of work for more than six months. But the curves shift up for everybody if you’ve been unemployed longer than six months. In other words, it doesn’t matter whether you’re young or old, a blue-collar or white-collar worker, or a high school or college grad; all that matters is how long you’ve been out of work.But just how bad is it for the long-term unemployed? Ghayad ran a follow-up field experiment to find out. In a new working paper, he sent out 4800 fictitious resumes to 600 job openings, with 3600 of them for fake unemployed people. Among those 3600, he varied how long they’d been out of work, how often they’d switched jobs, and whether they had any industry experience. Everything else was kept constant. The mocked-up resumes were all male, all had randomly-selected (and racially ambiguous) names, and all had similar education backgrounds. The question was which of them would get callbacks
It turns out long-term unemployment is much scarier than you could possibly imagine.
So, if you have to write a check to the Feds, remember, your money is going to subsidize huge corporations while we rank near the bottom of the list on Child Welfare.
The United States ranked in the bottom four of a United Nations report on child well-being. Among 29 countries, America landed second from the bottom in child poverty and held a similarly dismal position when it came to “child life satisfaction.”
Keeping the U.S. company at the bottom of the report, which gauged material well-being, overall health, access to housing and education, were Lithuania, Latvia and Romania, three of the poorest countries in the survey.
UNICEF said in a statement on the survey that child poverty in countries like the U.S. “is not inevitable but is policy-susceptible” and that there isn’t necessarily a strong relationship between per capita GDP and overall child well-being, explaining: “The Czech Republic is ranked higher than Austria, Slovenia higher than Canada, and Portugal higher than the United States.”
The Netherlands ranked number one on the list, with Norway, Iceland, Finland and Sweden filling out the top five.
But don’t feel too discouraged, fellow Americans! As the International Business Times notes, the U.S. has managed to take first place in plenty of other surveys conducted by global organizations:
The United States is No. 1 on many other lists: It spends more on the military than the next 12 nations on the list combined; it’s the best in the world at imprisoning people; and it has the most obese people, the highest divorce rate, and the highest rate of both illicit and prescription drug use.
Kinda makes you all kinds of proud and patriotic, doesn’t it? Bill Moyers puts it this way: “We Are Living in the United States of Inequality.”
“A petty, narcissistic, pridefully ignorant politics has come to dominate and paralyze our government,” says Moyers, “while millions of people keep falling through the gaping hole that has turned us into the United States of Inequality.”
Inequality matters. You will hear people say it doesn’t, but they are usually so high up the ladder they can’t even see those at the bottom. The distance between the first and the least in America is vast and growing.
The Washington Post recently took a look at two counties in Florida and found that people who live in the more affluent St. Johns County live longer than those who live next door in less rich Putnam County. The Post concluded: “The widening gap in life expectancy between these two adjacent Florida counties reflects perhaps the starkest outcome of the nation’s growing economic inequality: Even as the nation’s life expectancy has marched steadily upward…a growing body of research shows that those gains are going mostly to those at the upper end of the income ladder.”
That’s true across America. In California’s Silicon Valley, Apple, Facebook and Google, among others, have reinvented the Gold Rush. But down the road in San Jose it’s not so pretty a picture. Do the math: in an area where one fourth of the population earn an average of about $19,000 dollars a year, rent alone can average more than $20,000 dollars a year, and that difference adds up to homelessness.
I keep writing about all these things with the goal of trying to explain why our stupid ass political leaders are still obsessed with some phantom
menace of a federal budget deficit and debt. Joblessness, children living in poverty, the lack of retirement saving by people closing in our retirement, and all kinds of other things are problems. Why are they obsessed with something that isn’t an issue? The deal is that I cannot come up with one, sane rational, explanation. Here’s one Democratic Representative saying the entire thing is crazy. I agree with him.
Democratic Rep. Jerrold Nadler of New York took aim at the conventional wisdom on Sunday morning, saying the government was cutting the federal deficit too quickly.
His comments came during a MSNBC panel discussion about President Barack Obama’s budget plan.
“If you look at the deficit, we brought it down in three years from 10.1 percent of GDP to 7.1 percent of GDP — this year it will be about five and a half,” he explained in the latter half of the segment. “That’s the largest deficit reduction — fastest — since the demobilization after World War II. It is too fast. It is having an inhibiting effect on economic growth and employment.”
Nadler said the deficit should only be addressed once the country had solved its unemployment problem.
“Our immediate problem is an economy which is going to stay at 7.6 percent unemployment indefinitely,” he remarked. “Already, we have a contractionary fiscal policy that is inhibiting the economy. We should, from an economic point of view, be increasing the deficit right now somewhat.”
The New York congressman said Obama caved to Republican talking points about reducing the federal deficit in his latest budget. The budget would reduce the deficit by $1.8 trillion over 10 years by raising taxes on the rich and cutting Social Security benefits, among other measures.
I certainly hope more congressional critters will speak up on this. Economists have been saying this for quite a few years and no one listens to us. Here’s some more information on this from Investor’s Business Daily.
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