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Lazy Caturday Reads: The Midterm Elections, Three Days Out.

Happy Halloween!!

Only 3 days to go until the midterm elections next Tuesday. Trump is ramping up efforts to interfere with voting. At the same time, record numbers of voters are turning in their ballots early. This data is from 2 days ago:

BBC: More than 43 million ballots cast so far in midterms early voting surge.

With less than a week to go until the US midterm elections – which will determine which party controls Congress for the next two years – more than 43 million Americans have already voted.

Data from the University of Florida Election Lab indicates that four to five million early votes have been cast each day, a much higher rate than in most previous elections.

Texas has seen the highest above-average turnout rate so far, says Professor Mike McDonald, who runs the database. Hispanic communities are also seeing a much higher turnout than usual.

Overall turnout appears on track to outpace 2020, and even possibly 2018, which beat the 1914 record for overall turnout in a midterm election.

Texas has already surpassed its 2022 numbers by around 1.75 million voters, says McDonald. More than 5.8 million ballots have been cast in the Lone Star state, which has emerged as a key battleground that could decide which party controls the Senate for the rest of Donald Trump’s presidency.

Data from states where voters are required to register a political affiliation during the primary elections, when voters choose their party nominees ahead of the general election, indicates an increase in votes cast by Democrats.

The number of early ballots cast by Republican-affiliated voters remain generally similar to 2022.

Early voting is also up among voters who chose to not register with a specific party, McDonald says, however the data does not show which candidates they chose.

PBS: Early voting jumps across Senate battlegrounds as millions more Americans vote ahead of Election Day.

Early voting is significantly outpacing the last midterm election, with millions more Americans casting ballots in advance and particularly sharp increases in states hosting competitive Senate races, according to an Associated Press analysis of voting data five days before Election Day.

The surge is especially pronounced in Texas, where voters are deciding closely watched Senate, House and governor’s races. More than 6.3 million Texans had voted early as of Wednesday, compared with 4.2 million at the same point four years ago, a 50% increase.

Advance voting has also increased more than 30% from the same point four years ago in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina and Kansas, states with competitive Senate races. In South Carolina, where voters are choosing a successor to the late Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, early voting is up 83%.

The data, compiled by the AP, offers a glimpse of early voter participation five days before an election that will determine control of Congress and other key contests.

Across the country, more than 43 million Americans had voted early in person or returned mail ballots, nearly 10 million more than in 2022. The figures cover 47 states and Washington, D.C., compared with 48 states and the nation’s capital four years ago.

In states that provide information on voters’ party affiliation, about 6.8 million Democrats and 5.2 million Republicans have cast ballots early. Those figures do not account for all early voters nationwide or indicate which candidates received their votes.

Trump is trying to rally his supporters and get them to the polls. He is also continuing his efforts to interfere with state elections.

Natalie Allison at The Washington Post: Trump adds weekend rallies back after canceling a day earlier.

President Donald Trump has now rescheduled two weekend rallies a day after canceling them, adding back in-person events in Iowa and Kansas on Sunday.

Trump’s political team had canceled the events on Thursday, explaining that doing so would allow the president to hold roughly 20 tele-rallies for candidates around the country.

All Cats Constitute The Same Family — From Ghosts and Goblins by Wilhelmina Harper.

Trump is scheduled to travel to Daytona Beach, Florida, on Friday before spending Saturday at Mar-a-Lago. Three people with knowledge of the schedule said Trump will travel to Iowa and Kansas on Sunday for back-to-back rallies.

The rallies will be held in the locations originally planned: first, in Dubuque, Iowa, on Sunday afternoon, followed by Salina, Kansas, in the evening.

Trump himself drove the scheduling change, according to people familiar with the decision, who like others cited in this article were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly. One adviser said the president was tired after weeks of rallies and wanted to take a day off. Another person said Trump is fascinated by tele-rally technology — in effect, a massive conference call — and strongly believes the calls, which the person said can feature tens of thousands of participants, reach more supporters than in-person events.

The shifting plans have added a sense of whiplash to an already frenetic final stretch of campaigning as Republicans fight to hold their congressional majorities.

The Republican National Committee had said Thursday night that the Iowa and Kansas events were being dropped because Republicans “were in a strong position” in each state. A day later, they were back on.

The president on Thursday told reporters he was not traveling to Kansas because Sen. Roger Marshall was doing “really well” in his race, which polls have shown is competitive.

And then there are the Trump administration’s efforts to interfere with state elections.

Jasmine Garsd at NPR: ICE activity is surging ahead of midterms. So is voter turnout.

Very early on Wednesday morning, Dover, N.J., Councilwoman Sandra Wittner started getting messages about immigration agents. A dozen or more were gathering outside a Walgreens, according to the messages she was getting. Throughout the day, neighbors in north New Jersey saw a spike in Immigration and Customs Enforcement activity.

And New Jersey is not alone. In the weeks ahead of the midterms, various cities and states across the country are reporting a notable rise in ICE activity, according to reports gathered by NPR and its member stations.

“The tactics that the administration has been deploying in communities really appear to be designed to try to intimidate voters,” says Wendy Weiser of the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU Law School. Despite that, early turnout is surging.

“There was definitely a lot of apprehension and fear,” Wittner recalls. “We just really weren’t sure if something huge was about to happen. People were not feeling very comfortable or safe.” [….]

An official within New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s office who was not authorized to speak publicly confirmed that they have noted a surge in ICE activity in the city.

“We’re certainly witnessing an uptick in activity, and have been since the summer,” says a member of a volunteer group of neighbors in New York. She asked that NPR not use her name, as she is worried about retaliation. Her group goes to the scene where an ICE operation is happening, documents it, reminds those being detained of their rights, and alerts neighbors.

The article also reports increased ICE activity in Oregon.

Trump’s DOJ is continuing it’s efforts to find voting by undocumented people.

Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney at Politico: Judge orders DOJ to stop threatening to prosecute election officials.

A federal judge on Friday ordered the Justice Department to stop threatening state and local election officials with criminal prosecution over their handling of disputes about voter qualifications.

U.S. District Judge Trina Thompson also ordered the Trump administration to cease demanding that election workers remove voters from statewide rolls, refuse to issue ballots to specific voters or segregate ballots cast in the midterms based on the administration’s claims that some voters are ineligible.

“Because the public has a paramount interest in ensuring that election officials and workers are able to carry out their work in accordance with federal law and election procedure, and the official day of the Elections is only a couple of days away, the balance of the equities and public interest weigh in Plaintiffs’ favor,” Thompson wrote.

Thompson, a San Francisco-based Biden appointee, issued the temporary restraining order in connection with a lawsuit brought by the Service Employees International Union and other groups. Her directive also requires the DOJ to reach out to any state or local officials who received warnings about possible prosecution and inform them that “demands and threats of prosecution to election officials and workers … have been enjoined.”

The Justice Department on Thursday sent letters to election workers in all 50 states alluding to possible prosecution if they didn’t preserve election records. DOJ did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the judge’s broad ruling.

Tierney Sneed at CNN: Judge imposes sweeping emergency order halting DOJ pressure campaign on election officials across the country.

A federal judge imposed a sweeping emergency order halting various aggressive tactics employed by the Trump administration in recent days to pressure election officials across the country.

“Although Defendants claim that their actions are designed to halt unlawful voting by noncitizens, their actions are likely to have the effect of interfering with election administration and disenfranchising lawful voters,” US District Judge Trina Thompson said in her opinion granting a temporary restraining order Friday evening.

She said, while her order is in place, the Justice Department and the Department of Homeland Security cannot demand that election officials in any state segregate ballots, purge voters from voter rolls, or halt ballot processing. Thompson, who was appointed by President Joe Biden, is also blocking threats of criminal prosecutions against election officials from those agencies and said that the administration cannot take other actions that “threaten, intimidate or coerce” election officials to demand changes in ballot processing procedures on claims the voters are ineligible.

Thompson’s opinion rebuked claims the administration has made for months that it can and will prosecute election officials for not doing enough to prevent illegal voting.

By Marina Karoleva

“When state and local government employees perform the work of distributing, processing, or counting ballots or otherwise administering the 2026 midterm election” in accordance with the law, “they do not violate federal criminal law even if a particular ballot belongs to a registered voter alleged by Defendants to be ineligible to vote,” she wrote.

She is also requiring the administration inform her of any “search warrant applications, grand jury subpoenas, or other demands to access election materials or ballots” that have been issued related to lists the administration has created to allege individuals are ineligible to vote.

There’s much more at the CNN link.

The situation in Alaska is concerning. The New York Times published an article claiming that the Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola was involved in a conspiracy to confuse voters by adding a candidate to the ballot with the same name as the Republican candidate. Peltola denies any involvement in this effort. This tactic has frequently been used by Republicans and is not a crime, but the DOJ has announced a criminal investigation of Peltola’s campaign. Some Democrats are accusing the NYT of a similar tactic to their late attacks on Hillary Clinton in 2016. Meanwhile, the Time completely ignore a new accusation of rape against Trump.

Jamison Foser at Finding Gravity: The New York Times invents a Democratic scandal while ignoring a new Trump rape allegation.

America is four days out from the end of an election in which America’s deeply unpopular fascist ruling party is trying to retain control of Congress. The week began with yet another new rape allegation against the president of the united states, a man who has already been found liable for sexual assault in another case. The president and his allies are frantically whipping up hatred and anger at racial minorities in a continuation of a decade-long effort to inspire and incite violence against those who oppose them. They continue to disappear people off of American streets without trial, wage a figurative war against free expression and a literal war that has driven up prices for American families, all while plundering the treasury for their own financial gain.

By Viera Patcheva

Against that backdrop, the national news media is doing everything they can to make the central story of the last days of this election season an alleged political maneuver by Alaska Democrats that was, by all accounts, legal, consistent with past behavior by both major political parties, and unlikely to have any real effect on the outcome of the Alaska Senate race. America’s dominant news companies, led by the New York Times, have literally ignored the new rape allegation against the president of the United States while breathlessly hyping the Alaska maneuver, giving Donald Trump the distraction he desperately seeks and a phony premise for his anti-democratic efforts to effectively cancel a Senate election that could determine control of the entire U.S. Senate. It is, in the most charitable assessment, a gross and feckless abandonment of the news media’s responsibility to provide voters the information they need to make considered decisions about the future of their country.

Here’s the Alaska situation: The New York Times reported allegations that people associated with the campaign of Democratic Senate nominee Mary Peltola recruited an Alaskan named Dan Sullivan to run for the Senate in order to siphon votes away from incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan.

This no doubt strikes some people as unsportsmanlike, but it is important to understand a few things:

1) It is legal.

2) There is ample precedent for this precise maneuver, as well as countless others that are merely similar, from both political parties, both this election season and historically.

3) This particular maneuver is exceedingly unlikely to have an effect on the outcome of the Alaska senate race, because Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, which means that any Alaskan who wants to vote for the Republican incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan but who is somehow confused about which Dan Sullivan he is on the ballot despite the fact that only one Dan Sullivan on the ballot is identified with the words “Republican” or “incumbent” can simply rank the two Dan Sullivans as first and second choices in either order and that vote will ultimately be counted for the Republican incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan.

Read more at the link.

More on this story from Greg Sargent at The New Republic: Inside Trump’s Dark Plot to Keep Senate in GOP Hands Even If Dems Win.

On Thursday night, the Republican governor of Alaska refused to commit to certifying the outcome in the Senate race if Democrat Mary Peltola wins. Which means that if she does triumph, refusing to seat Peltola could well become a cause célèbre on the right—one that Donald Trump requires Republicans to commit to under threat of excommunication from MAGA.

Democrats are already preparing for a range of scenarios along these lines. And while this GOP gambit is very unlikely to succeed, it could get awfully nasty.

Governor Mike Dunleavy’s comments came in a discussion about the controversial report this week that Democrats conspired to get a second “Dan Sullivan” on the ballot to siphon votes from GOP Senator Dan Sullivan. The governor has ordered a criminal probe of the move, and a reporter asked him if he’ll certify the election if she’s still under that investigation.

“If we conclude that there were things that should not have happened, that are illegal, we will act on that,” Dunleavy said. “That may in fact impact whether somebody is seated in the U.S. Senate.” [….]

How bad was this plot? In my view, it’s scummy and antidemocratic conduct. But it’s routine, as ratfucking goes. Indeed, Democrats quickly cited numerous examples of Republicans engaged in lots of similar chicanery. Let’s get real: We live in a world where Trump ordered multiple GOP state legislatures to execute extreme gerrymanders for the explicitly declared purpose of holding the House, where Trump has called on congressional Republicans to seize control of state-administered elections, and where Trump still won’t commit to accepting a midterm defeat.

In that world, the Alaska saga is pretty damn small electoral potatoes. The ballot will be clearly labeled by party, and it’s unlikely to make any difference. Besides, as I wrote in my 2018 book, if only one side adheres to norms of fair play in politics, that is itself destabilizing. Generally speaking, mutual escalation of hardball tactics may be the only way to compel some kind of détente over time.

All that aside, the second “Dan Sullivan” says his decision to run was his own, and state courts (in a separate lawsuit) have already upheld his right to do so. Yet Trump’s Justice Department is already suing to force Alaska not to certify the results, insisting the second “Dan Sullivan” will invalidate any outcome (other than a GOP victory, of course).

Read the rest at TNR.

At the AP,  Joshua Goodman and Jim Mustian report on more threatening behavior from the Trump goons: FBI visits Dan J. Sullivan donor in candidate’s home town as Alaska Senate inquiry widens.

The FBI on Friday began reaching out to donors of Dan J. Sullivan asking about potential deception, as federal authorities ramped up their investigation over the U.S. Senate candidate in Alaska who shares a name with the Republican incumbent.

An Anchorage-based FBI agent visited a boat dealership in Petersburg, a small fishing community accessible only by air or water where the candidate lives. The agent left a business card for Charles Flint, who told The Associated Press he has known Dan J. Sullivan for years as a respected teacher and musician.

The FBI visit came after federal officials confirmed the existence of a criminal probe over the candidate. The U.S. Department of Justice also pushed Friday for a court order to isolate certain Alaska ballots to investigate potential voter confusion.

Flint contributed $500 over the summer to what he considered a long-shot campaign, saying he knew Dan J. Sullivan would have expenses and respected him for “throwing his hat in the ring.” Flint said the FBI agent asked his son, who works at the dealership, whether Flint felt he had been “misled” about which candidate he was supporting.

“I don’t feel like I’ve been misled at all,” Flint, who has been out of town, told the AP in a telephone interview, adding he had no intention of calling the agent but would “let him waste his time trying to track me down.”

“I don’t think there’s any confusion,” he said, adding he intends to rank Democrat Mary Peltola first on his ballot, followed by Dan J. Sullivan. “Everybody knows who the incumbent is.”

More at the link.

One more article on the midterm elections by Tim Balk and Sam Easter at The New York Times (gift article): Led by Trump, Republicans Close Midterms With Ugly Personal Attacks.

In Kansas, Senator Roger Marshall, a vulnerable Republican, baselessly said his Democratic opponent “probably is grooming” children.

In Texas, Republicans have cast James Talarico, the Democratic Senate nominee, as a “freak” and insinuated he is gay, secretly a vegan, and obsessed with transgender children because he made statements supporting them in the past.

And in Michigan, Republicans have targeted the Democratic Senate nominee, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, with Islamophobic attacks. Mr. Trump has described Dr. El-Sayed as a “vicious, violent jihadist.”

Facing a backlash over rising prices and working to overcome the president’s deep unpopularity, Republicans across the country have tarred their opponents with false, inflammatory and deeply personal attacks in the final stretch of the midterm election.

In many cases, they are following the lead of a president who has repeatedly rewritten the rules of acceptable discourse in American politics. Many of the attacks have drawn little pushback from within the party, but some Republicans say they are concerned by the trend.

“It’s awful,” said former Senator Jeff Flake, an Arizona Republican and critic of Mr. Trump. Mr. Flake, who is backing candidates in both parties in the midterms, said Republicans had gone down a darker road in their messaging: “We’ve gotten progressively more crass and crude and vulgar. But this seems to be a new level.”

The strategy risks turning off some moderate voters who see the rhetoric as over-the-top or offensive, political observers said. But it could be effective at energizing the Republican base. Democrats, who have widely condemned the Republicans’ attacks, worry the lines will land with some voters….

American political campaigns have long been awash in negative and dubious attacks by both parties — in debate lines, TV commercials and stump speeches — but this bitter, hard-fought cycle may set a new standard. Some political scientists said this election season had devolved into the most negative, dark campaign in modern American history.

“I think it’s the worst,” said Christina Greer, a political science professor at Fordham University. She attributed the tone to candidates’ desire to package their message for social media, and to Republicans’ mirroring of Mr. Trump: “He’s opened a portal to the degradation of our electoral system.”

In Texas, Vice President JD Vance suggested at a rally that Mr. Talarico was gay, drawing gasps from the crowd. “A guy that age who is so obsessed and focused on transgender children, I don’t know about you, but I never want to see that guy’s web browser history,” Mr. Vance added, referring to Mr. Talarico’s past statements in support of transgender youth.

Mr. Talarico has a girlfriend. The attack was part of a broad effort by Republicans to portray Mr. Talarico as extreme. Mr. Trump has taken to referring to Mr. Talarico as “Talafreako.”

That’s where things stand, 3 days before election day. What do you think? What else is on your mind?

Comments

3 responses to “Lazy Caturday Reads: The Midterm Elections, Three Days Out.”

  1. bostonboomer Avatar
    bostonboomer

    I hope everyone is having a great fall weekend. And be sure to vote!

  2. jjlo1970 Avatar
    jjlo1970

    All the interference from Trump and his DOJ is so depressing. Put that together with the stupidity of his cult worshipers…it is frightening.

    1. jjlo1970 Avatar
      jjlo1970

      I had at least four video clips of interviews from trump rallies…people waiting to get in to see Trump, and they were as you would expect. Dumb as dirt. But Instagram has taken them all down. Hmmm…

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