Monday Reads: Nasty Desperation = f(Election Math)Posted: March 14, 2016
We’re at the point in the primaries where intellectual dishonesty has taken on an ugly life. It’s probably because the paths to victory for any one that’s not Donald Trump or not Hillary Clinton are narrowing drastically. While some people hang on the overall results of one state. Savvy politics followers know it’s the math.
For Bernie, he has to win Big States by a BIG margin for the math to come close to working for him. This is highly unlikely.
As of today, Clinton has 1,231 delegates to Sanders’s 576 — a lead of 655. That means that Clinton has 51.7 percent of the 2,383 delegates she needs to become the Democratic Party’s nominee.
Subtract superdelegates — Clinton is dominating even among this group of elected officials and party luminaries — and she has 766 delegates to Sanders’s 551, a margin of 215. (Worth noting: That is a wider lead than the margin by which Clinton ever trailed then-Sen. Barack Obama in the long slog of the 2008 primary race.)
That lead may not seem momentous. After all, almost 3,000 delegates are yet to be allocated in the primaries and caucuses to come. The problem for Sanders is that Democrats allocate their delegates proportionally in every state — meaning that between now and when the process ends June 7, there is no state where Clinton will be shut out.
Winning, then, is not enough for Sanders. He has to win by a lot to make up any real ground.
Clinton has already done that. Take, for example, Alabama. She won there March 1 by 59 points and gained 38 more delegates than Sanders. Or Georgia on that same day, beating Sanders by 43 points and netting 55 delegates. Or the aforementioned Mississippi, where Clinton’s 66-point win translated to a net gain of 28 delegates.
Tomorrow is an extremely important day for the Republicans because Florida is a winner take all in a closed primary state. Hillary Clinton is likely to do well in the state since the state’s she’s lost have been due to Republican cross-over vote (likely sandbaggers) and independents (any one’s guess). However, there’s an all out fight to stop the Donald there and in Ohio because the magic number is within Trump’s reach.
Tuesday might be the most decisive day of the 2016 GOP campaign. Depending on the results, one or more of the remaining candidates might be forced to drop out. And Donald Trump might be unstoppable.
If Trump rolls to victories in Florida and Ohio — the first states on the calendar this year that award every single delegate to the statewide winner — his lead becomes all but insurmountable. Without home-state wins, Marco Rubio and John Kasich would have little cause to continue.
But if Rubio or Kasich can pick off either of the delegate-rich battlegrounds, the calculus of the race could be rewritten. Though neither underdog has a mathematical shot to overtake Trump before July’s convention, big wins Tuesday could breathe life into efforts to deny the billionaire the 1,237 delegates he needs to clinch the nomination — and make a contested convention in July a likely scenario.
Ted Cruz doesn’t appear poised to win any of the five states on the ballot, but he could corral delegates in the three other states on the calendar: Missouri, Illinois and North Carolina.
With 367 delegates at stake Tuesday — the second largest one-day haul of the campaign — here’s the state-by-state breakdown:
There are some new polls out but one thing you have to remember is that a poll only captures a sample of a defined population at a particular point in time. I prefer to follow those folks that do election polling math with megadata which means their numbers are based on a “poll of polls”. Nate Silver of the NYT and Dr. Sam Wang of Princeton use this kind of methodology. But, here’s the latest capture of data from PPP for Dem Voters in tomorrow’s battleground states.
It does look like Hillary’s Southern Fire Wall strategy will continue to hold which again, makes the math for Bernie Sanders precipitously uphill to the point of impossible without a massive Super Delegate betrayal. Remember, when you don’t get Republicans voting in Democratic Primaries or Independents, you say huge Hillary Victories.
New Public Policy Polling surveys of the 5 states that will vote on Tuesday find that the Democratic contests in Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio are all toss ups, while Hillary Clinton maintains a significant advantage in Florida and North Carolina. The surveys were conducted on behalf of the VoteVets Action Fund.
Clinton leads Bernie Sanders just 46/41 in Ohio and 48/45 in Illinois, while narrowly trailing Sanders in Missouri 47/46. Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri are all open primary states and Sanders is benefiting from significant support from independent voters and a small swath of Republicans planning to vote in each state, putting him in position to potentially pull an upset sweep of the region on Tuesday night:
State Overall Democrats Independents Republicans OH Clinton 46-41 Clinton 55-37 Sanders 53-20 Sanders 56-21 IL Clinton 48-45 Clinton 59-37 Sanders 69-18 Sanders 62-23 MO Sanders 47-46 Clinton 56-39 Sanders 62-23 Sanders 66-23
Clinton is better positioned in the Southern states voting on Tuesday. She leads 57/32 in Florida, and 56/37 in North Carolina. She benefits in Florida from it being a closed primary state- her lead with Democrats is comparable to what it is in the three Midwestern states voting on Tuesday but that’s the entire electorate in the Sunshine State, putting her in a strong position. In North Carolina, Clinton has already accrued a huge lead during early voting. Among those who have already cast their ballots she leads 68/29, and the race only gets closer overall because her advantage is a tighter 50/40 spread among those planning to vote on Election Day.
A new Quinnipiac Poll has Trump winning Florida while being tied with Kasich in Ohio. This is yet another indication that Ohio is close so it may be that we won’t get Republicans boosting Bernie Sanders.
Because we’re coming down to the do or die portion of the election cycle, we’re beginning to see some really intellectually dishonest as well as down right nasty electioneering.
This particular one floors me. It comes from the Bernie Sanders Campaign. You can see Tweet with the pic of Hillary here basically aligning her with–of all groups–the NRA. It’s really pretty well known that many of Bernie’s wins in open primaries have come from the NRA actively phonebanking and throwing its Super Pac behind hind Sanders. (H/T to Kim Frederick) . The NRA actively tweets support of Bernie Sanders during debates. I’m not exactly sure who is going to believe this other than low information, last minute voters who are just wrapped up in the moment.
The NRA tweeted that Sanders was “spot-on” when, in a contentious exchange during CNN’s Democratic presidential debate in Flint, Michigan, he defended his position favoring protection of gun manufacturers from legal liability over the use of their products.
“Sen. Sanders was spot-on in his comments about gun manufacturer liability/PLCAA,” the organization wrote, linking to a story explaining the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act (PLCAA) and Sanders’ support for it.
Sanders also voted against the Brady Bill. He voted for letting guns on to trains. Here’s Bernie Sanders on all of his pro-gun votes if you really want the huge list showing why this tweet is so intellectually dishonest that every one in the campaign should be growing Pinocchio noses now.
The other disturbing thing is the number of policies and issues that now seem to be popping up from the Sanders Campaign that were never around before. Sanders now has an AIDS policy. Plus, after a debate question, he now has a policy on HBCs. Hillary’s had policies on these things since the beginning. Is he responding to the criticism he’s a one issue candidate or is he just becoming a Pander Bear?
The worst one deals with something near and dear to me. Bernie says Hillary voted to enable the BP Oil Spill. It’s a complete, baldface lie. It’s also a new one.
“With Sanders scheduled to address a rally here [Tampa] tonight in this Gulf of Mexico coastal community, his campaign cited the 2006 vote on the gulf drilling bill. Sanders, then a member of the House, voted against the legislation. Clinton, then a senator, voted for the bill. After the bill passed, the oil giant BP obtained a permit to drill in the area where one of its rigs exploded in 2010, killing 11 workers and causing a catastrophic spill of of 130 million gallons of oil into the gulf.”
— From a news release issued by the Bernie Sanders campaign, March 10, 2016
The Bernie Sanders campaign, touting an event to be held in Tampa, sought to tie Hillary Clinton to the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill by citing a vote she cast in 2006 …
In a floor statement at the time, Clinton said that “as part of a balanced energy policy, we need to expand domestic oil and gas production where it has local support and can do so in an environmentally sound way.” But she warned that she would oppose any effort by the House to expand offshore drilling to areas not permitted in the Senate bill.
So, just to be clear, Sanders, who was then in the House, voted against a different bill than the one Clinton voted for. The House never took up the Senate version. But after the GOP lost control of the Congress in the 2006 midterm elections, the Senate version was folded into a tax bill and passed during the lame-duck session. Sanders also voted against the omnibus bill; it passed the Senate in a voice vote.
Another Bernie baldface lie was that Hillary some how has responsibility for Rahm Emmanuel. This undoubtedly comes as a last minute effort to appeal to black voters in Chicago. The entire campaign still hasn’t quite figured out how to speak with black Americans.
If you want to critique why some black people are voting for Clinton afford us the same complexity and nuance you would critique any other group with. Maybe some voters in the black electorate are already aware of Clinton’s flaws but are willing to use them as leverage against her to make stronger campaign commitments, so that they can hold her feet to the fire if she were to be elected. Or maybe some voters might actually be selfish capitalists who are only interested in their bottom line. Literally, anything other than the “These foolish negroes don’t know what’s best for them” narrative that’s currently being pushed.
I guess the most frustrating thing about this whole ordeal is that black people have played a huge role in getting Bernie this far in the race to begin with. The Black Lives Matter movement is arguably the catalyst that allowed a candidate like Bernie to emerge in the democratic party. Black Twitter and black protestors have created the atmosphere where candidates are discussing black lives, police brutality and systematic racism during national presidential debates. However, even our ‘progressive’ and ‘liberal’ brethren still show flashes of smug superiority that makes many people want to roll their eyes so far into the back of their heads they can see their own thoughts.
The final thing that just frosts my cupcakes is how Bernie thinks that Donald Trump needs to quit inciting violence because he’s responsible for his voters but Bernie isn’t responsible for his out of control supporters. Bernie is just as much of a “rage peddler” as the Donald.
Bernie Sanders may not be offering to pay the legal bills of his supporters who punch protesters (perhaps that has something to do with his massive credit card debt), but he’s stoking the fire of anger just the same. Media types like to describe this as “tapping into the anger” of people mad at “the system” for various reasons, but this has gone far beyond tapping and turned into inflaming. Rather than channeling a destructive emotion like anger and channeling it to constructive change, both Trump and Sanders have been telling their supporters that if anything, they should be even angrier (and thus, more destructive).
Rage-peddling has consequences. Just yesterday, Trump’s supporters clashedwith protesters in skirmishes that left some injured at a Donald Trump event in Chicago – which The Donald ended up canceling. On Friday, a Trump supporter punched a peaceful protester in face as the protester was leaving. And now Bernie Sanders’ supporters are sharing the following on social media, while having a good laugh.
You can follow that link to a well thought out essay with lots of examples on on the out right misogyny that Bernie incites. Meanwhile, Trump considers his rallies to be “lovefests”. The Republicans may have toned their last debate down some, but I doubt that ambiance will hold. Rubio is undoubtedly sunk. He’s also whining.
Marco Rubio said Monday that his presidential run would be over if his campaign manager forcibly grabbed a reporter, as Donald Trump’s top aide has been accused of doing to a Breitbart reporter.
The Florida senator told conservative radio host Mike Gallagher that if Corey Lewandowski really did grab Michelle Fields, the Breitbart reporter who resigned on Sunday, “it’s one more example of what’s happening here at these events.”
“If my campaign manager had done that, my campaign would be over. He would have had to resign, and my campaign may be over. I would have had to quit that very day,” Rubio said.
So, as you can see, there are both quiet and loud and obnoxious acts of desperation. I for one am somewhat ready to have the next few weeks over. I hope the stars are aligned and the voters do the right thing. Then, we can prepare for the ugliness of the General because there will be blood.
We’ll be live blogging the returns tomorrow. Join us!!!
Each of the historical pictures I’ve used today come from the event of a presidential nomination convention. Can you name the year and the two nominated candidates?
What’s on your reading and blogging list today?