What are President Obama’s Chances Being Reelected in 2012?
Posted: August 21, 2011 Filed under: just because 34 CommentsVia Zero Hedge, Right now his chances according to InTrade are only 49.4%.
Real Clear Politics’ average of Obama’s job approval ratings across polls: 43% approve, 50.5% disapprove.
Obama himself admits he’ll be judged by voters on how well he handles the economy. His Gallup approval rating on that last week was only 26%. His weekly average for last week in the Gallup tracking poll was 40%. Only 11% approve of the way the country is going, and their number 1 issue is jobs.
Now check this out from Robert Reich:
Repeat after me: Workers are consumers. Consumers are workers.
We’re slouching toward a double dip, and the stock market is imploding, because consumers – whose spending is 70 percent of the economy – have reached their limit.
It’s not just the jobless who can’t spend. It’s mainly people with jobs. Median wages continue to fall. Weekly wages in July for Americans with jobs were 1.3 percent lower than eight months before.
America’s median earners are now earning less (adjusted for inflation) than they earned ten years ago.
Every CEO of every company that continues to squeeze payrolls (Verizon, are you listening? Ford?) needs to understand they’re shooting themselves in the feet. Where do they expect demand for their products and services to come from?
Of course Dakinikat has been telling us this forever, but in DC (and the wealthy part of Martha’s Vineyard) no one seems to be paying attention.
Maybe this was not such a good time for the President to take a vacation? Maybe it’s not such a good time to gut the New Deal and Great Society programs either? But we know he’ll keep trying. So what will he do to try to improve his chances of reelection?
At Zero Hedge, “Tyler Durden” suggests Obama’s only “good” option is to start another war. What do you think he’ll do?
Breaking … Libyan Rebels Enter Tripoli
Posted: August 21, 2011 Filed under: just because 29 CommentsMinutes ago, The New York Times reported that Libyan rebels have broken through Gaddafi’s lines of defense and entered the capital city of Tripoli.
Rebel troops approaching from the west raced through Colonel Qaddafi’s “ring of steel” defense that had been positioned outside Tripoli. Rebels driving pickup trucks mounted with machine guns met little resistance as they reached Janzour and Gargaresh, Tripoli neighborhoods where Qaddafi forces appeared to melt away, rebel leaders and residents said.
After six-months of inconclusive fighting the assault on the capital unfolded at a rapid pace, with insurgents capturing a military base of the vaunted Khamis Brigade where they had expected to meet fierce resistance, and then speeding toward Tripoli unopposed. By midnight local time rebel fighters said they were only a few miles from the center of Tripoli.
Inside the city, protesters took to the streets and rebels clashed with Qaddafi loyalists in some parts of the city, opposition leaders and refugees from the city said. Fighting had been heavy earlier in the day Sunday, but by nightfall Colonel Qaddafi’s forces had withdrawn from some districts without a major battle.
Gaddafi announced in a radio message that he would stay in Tripoli “until the end.” He told his supporters, “The time is now to fight for your politics, your oil, your land,” Colonel Qaddafi said. “I am with you in Tripoli — together until the ends of the earth.” Gaddafi’s whereabouts are a mystery.
Reuters is reporting that Gaddafi’s son Saif Al-Islam has been captured.
Juan Cole has a post up with lots of background on “The Great Tripoli Uprising.”
As dawn broke Sunday in Libya, revolutionaries were telling Aljazeera Arabic that much of the capital was being taken over by supporters of the February 17 Youth revolt. Some areas, such as the suburb of Tajoura to the east and districts in the eastrn part of the city such as Suq al-Juma, Arada, the Mitiga airport, Ben Ashour, Fashloum, and Dahra, were in whole or in part under the control of the revolutionaries.
Those who were expecting a long, hard slog of fighters from the Western Mountain region and from Misrata toward the capital over-estimated dictator Muammar Qaddafi’s popularity in his own capital, and did not reckon with the severe shortages of ammunition and fuel afflicting his demoralized security forces, whether the regular army or mercenaries. Nor did they take into account the steady NATO attrition of his armor and other heavy weapons.
This development, with the capital creating its own nationalist mythos of revolutionary participation, is the very best thing that could have happened. Instead of being liberated (and somewhat subjected) from the outside by Berber or Cyrenaican revolutionaries, Tripoli enters the Second Republic with its own uprising to its name, as a full equal able to gain seats on the Transitional National Council once the Qaddafis and their henchmen are out of the way. There will be no East/West divide. My hopes for a government of national unity as the last phase of the revolution before parliamentary elections now seem more plausible than ever. Tellingly, Tunisia and Egypt both recognized the TNC as Libya’s legitimate government through the night, as the Tripoli uprising unfolded. Regional powers can see the new Libya being born.
The underground network of revolutionaries in the capital, who had been violently repressed by Qaddafi’s security forces last March, appear to have planned the uprising on hearing of the fall of Zawiya and Zlitan. It is Ramadan, so people in Tripoli are fasting during the day, breaking their fast at sunset. Immediately after they ate their meal, the callers to prayer or muezzins mounted the minarets of the mosques and began calling out, “Allahu Akbar,” (God is most Great), as a signal to begin the uprising. (Intrestingly, this tactic is similar to that used by the Green movement for democracy in Iran in 2009).
You can follow events on the
Al Jazeera English Libya Live Blog here. The most recent update says that UK officials are urging Gaddafi to “Go now,” to “prevent further suffering for Libyans.”
The Guardian Live Blog on events in the Middle East is here.Latest updates:
10.11pm: Downing Street says “the end is near” for Gaddafi and calls on him to go to avoid more suffering for his people, according to the Press Association.
10.05pm: The head of Libya’s National Transitional Council tells Al Jazeera that Gaddafi’s son Saif al-Islam has been captured.
9.56pm: Al Arabiya TV reports that Gaddafi’s presidential guard has surrendered to the rebels, citing the rebels’ National Transitional Council.
9.52pm: Sky News correspondent Alex Crawford, who is with the rebels as they advance on Tripoli, says this must be the end for Gaddafi. She reports:
Even if he’s still here, his rule must surely be at the end. He can’t possibly expect to command any power any more.
To be honest, he’s lost now, I can’t see him being able to come back from this. His security forces have melted away.
Live Blog: Breaking News in Libya
Posted: August 20, 2011 Filed under: Breaking News, Foreign Affairs, Libya, Live | Tags: Libya, Libyan Rebels, NATO in Libya, Tripoli 22 Comments
You may not have heard the news from Libya, but it appears that Rebel and NATO forces have entered Tripoli and it may mean the end for Ghaddafi. Most of the sources I’ve found are coming from the foreign press and are being tweeted. CNN and Fox have yet to switch to the story although I just read a tweet from Don Lemon that he’s excited the story is breaking on his shift because he gets to cover it.
Here’s some coverage for you to check out. I’ll try to keep some of the links updates through out the evening. You can find similar news on twitter at #Libya.
Sounds of gunfire and explosions are becoming more intense in the Libyan capital Tripoli, according to a witness who spoke to the Reuters news agency.
Residents reported fighting in several neighbourhoods and said opponents of Muammar Gaddafi were in the streets.
Heavy gunfire and explosions rattled the Libyan capital Saturday after rebels seized control of a major coastal city just west of Tripoli. Rebel commanders said the firing in the capital signaled the start of an attack on Muammar Qaddafi’s main stronghold.
Gun battles and rounds of mortar shelling were heard clearly at the hotel where foreign correspondents stay in the capital. Explosions were heard in the area as NATO aircraft carried out heavy bombing runs after nightfall.
Col. Fadlallah Haroun, a rebel military commander in their stronghold of Benghazi said this marks the beginning of Operation Mermaid – a nickname for the capital city – an assault on Tripoli coordinated with NATO.
Haroun told The Associated Press that weapons were assembled and sent by tugboats to Tripoli on Friday night.
“The fighters in Tripoli are rising up in two places at the moment – some are in the Tajoura neighborhood and the other is near the Matiga (international) airport,” he told the Arabic satellite channel Al-Jazeera.
In his announcement on Libyan state TV, government spokesperson Moussa Ibrahim also said the rebels that entered Tripoli on Saturday night will be “pardoned if they surrender,” adding a message to the Libyan audience: “Qaddafi is your leader … Tripoli is surrounded by thousands to defend it,” suggesting the rebel advance on Tripoli has not shaken the regime.
Rebels are continuing to battle for the government-controlled Mitiga airbase in Tripoli in the early hours of Sunday. Fighting has left an unknown number of insurgents dead in the suburb of Qadah and elsewhere, an opposition activist in Tripoli told Reuters.
“The rebels have surrounded a military airbase called Mitiga in the Tajourah district. The rebels there are telling the brigades that they come in peace to avoid bloodshed. There are areas where electricity has been cut off,” he said.
Report to watch from AJ on the damage from the bombing.
Interesting Tweets:
BrianWildeCTV BrianWilde
When you have to announce it, the end is near. “@Reuters: Gaddafi remains #Libya’s leader: spokesman reut.rs/qrPdQ8”pedroelrey pedroelrey
Is Now-ism killing news? : Gadhafi likely wounded and has fled Tripoli haaretz.com/news/internati… #Italy #LibyaHenrique Henrique
amazing to see that only Al Jazeera English is broadcasting what is happening in #Libya right now…Nothing on CNN, FOX, MSNBC or even BBC!richardengelnbc Richard Engel
#libya US sources say revolt seems to have ‘certainly turned a corner’iyad_elbaghdadi Iyad El-Baghdadi
Fresh #Libya map with overview of all action; shows clearly how Gaddafi is cornered: bit.ly/nK2fKK @acarvinOmarAlMukhtar Omar Al Mukhtar
Our war is not with U Gaddafi fighters, but w/ a family who destroyed #Libya for 42 years. Lay down ur weapons & join ur brothers. #UniteMabusharkhMahmoud Abu Sharkh
Mosques all over #Tripoli now chanting Allahu Akbar after they knew the revolutionaries entered the city #Libya
Hanzabonanza Hana Tuhami
Wouldn’t it be really ironic if Gaddafi fell on the day of his Al-Fateh revolution? #Libya #Feb17evaottesmith evaottesmith
RT “@PeterClifford1: #Libya Former #Gaddafi PM, Jalloud, defects to Opposition & now believed to be in Europe. tinyurl.com/PCOLibya”
There appear to be Tweets coming from within Libya which is really interesting to follow. The #Libya channel is now overwhelmed with Tweets just from the last few minutes.
Watch Al Jzazeera English here.
There’s a live report coming from Tripoli now and the reporters are saying that it’s getting close to ‘zero hour’.
Do we Divorce our Past Presidents?
Posted: August 20, 2011 Filed under: 2012 presidential campaign | Tags: Kurt Anderson, presidential narcissits, reaction formation voting 36 Comments
Once I happily joined the ranks of the unmarried and no longer had to deal with heavy sighs, eye-rolling, and that persecuted look my ex-husband used to give me every time I bought my daughters new shoes to replace their outgrown ones, or asked one more time when we finally we’re going to get out of that hell hole in Nebraska like he promised before I would marry him, or after I woke him up so he’d stop snoring in the middle of the largest indoor production of Aida that included a live zoo animal parade, I found out that he had already been on the prowl for the next wife.
They’ve been married for some time now and I’m equally happy to say I’ve never met her because she was awful to my daughters among other things. So, I’ll stop blathering and get to my point. Every one I know who has met her says she is the anti-me. She’s got no formal education. She wanted now Doctor Daughter to go to community college. My mother-in-law–who I didn’t divorce–calls her horseface. She gambles and replaced all my antiques with cat statues. Actually, she cashed out the antiques I left there for the girls on ebay and bought cheap, tacky cat statues. Catch my drift?
So, that’s the first thing I thought about when reading Kurt Anderson’s op-ed in the NT today. I have to disclose that I helped a love lorn friend of mine stalk Kurt in the journalism classroom as a sophomore in high school so maybe I also feel a little guilty and want to showcase anything he does now. But, anyway, you’ll see the connection when you read “Our Politics are Sick”.
We have a tendency to elect presidents who seem like the antitheses of their immediate predecessors — randy young Kennedy the un-Eisenhower, earnest truth-telling Carter the un-Nixon, charismatic Reagan the un-Carter, randy young Clinton the un-H.W. Bush, cool and cerebral Obama the un-W.
So Rick Perry fits right into that winning contrapuntal pattern. He’s the very opposite of careful and sober and understated, in his first days as an official candidate suggesting President Obama maybe doesn’t love America (“Go ask him”) and that loose monetary policy is “treasonous.” (“Look, I’m just passionate about the issue,” he explained later about his anti-Federal Reserve outburst, before switching midsentence to first-person plural, “and we stand by what we said.”)Yet the most troubling thing about Perry (and Michele Bachmann and so many more), what’s new and strange and epidemic in mainstream politics, is the degree to which people inhabit their own Manichaean make-believe worlds. They totally believe their vivid fictions.
The heart of his piece is a list of all the vivid fictions which we’ve already covered endlessly over here. As an economist, I cringe every time one of them opens their mouth. But, Kurt’s a great writer and he capsulizes their complete fictions wonderfully. So, our politics are sick and I did notice the same pattern apparent in the electorate swinging from one brand of narcissism to another in his opening paragraph. Anderson thinks are politics are like an autoimmune disease. I’m looking at the voters who vote the in-guy in–unlike me whose only winning presidential votes were both Clinton terms–and I think of my ex-husband and how he ran immediately to the anti-me like some kind of reaction formation. This will undoubtedly leave me more cynical than I’ve been in the past, so be forewarned.
Anyhow, I thought I’d put it to you. Do you think we get so tired of 8 years of the same narcissism that we switch to the opposing brand out of some psychological reaction formation that I’ll leave BostonBoomer to categorize?
Saturday Reads: a little readin’ and writin’ and rhythmetric
Posted: August 20, 2011 Filed under: just because, morning reads | Tags: Althea Gibson, animal migrations, austrian school, Climate change, dominionism, extremist christians and anti-environmental policies, Hayek, Keynesian Economics, Siberian Dog Skeleton, voodoo econmics, zombie memes 18 CommentsSo, I’m still fascinated about how much history, science, and just plain reason seems to have gone out the window this political season. It undoubtedly has something to do with the caliber of candidates that are out stumping about right now. So bad are they that John Huntsmen felt the need to tweet out to people that he wasn’t crazy!!! So, I’m gonna have a little salute today to knowledge, literacy, history, economics, science, and just plain ol’ rationale thought.
First, some history. On August 22, 1950, Althea Gibson became the first African American on the US Tennis Tour. Gibson paved the way for
today’s Williams sisters who are tennis super stars.
Growing up in Harlem, the young Gibson was a natural athlete. She started playing tennis at the age of 14 and the very next year won her first tournament, the New York State girls’ championship, sponsored by the American Tennis Association (ATA), which was organized in 1916 by black players as an alternative to the exclusively white USLTA. After prominent doctors and tennis enthusiasts Hubert Eaton and R. Walter Johnson took Gibson under their wing, she won her first of what would be 10 straight ATA championships in 1947.
In 1949, Gibson attempted to gain entry into the USLTA’s National Grass Court Championships at Forest Hills, the precursor of the U.S. Open. When the USLTA failed to invite her to any qualifying tournaments, Alice Marble–a four-time winner at Forest Hills–wrote a letter on Gibson’s behalf to the editor of American Lawn Tennis magazine. Marble criticized the “bigotry” of her fellow USLTA members, suggesting that if Gibson posed a challenge to current tour players, “it’s only fair that they meet this challenge on the courts.” Gibson was subsequently invited to participate in a New Jersey qualifying event, where she earned a berth at Forest Hills.
On August 28, 1950, Gibson beat Barbara Knapp 6-2, 6-2 in her first USLTA tournament match. She lost a tight match in the second round to Louise Brough, three-time defending Wimbledon champion. Gibson struggled over her first several years on tour but finally won her first major victory in 1956, at the French Open in Paris. She came into her own the following year, winning Wimbledon and the U.S. Open at the relatively advanced age of 30.
Gibson repeated at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open the next year but soon decided to retire from the amateur ranks and go pro. At the time, the pro tennis league was poorly developed, and Gibson at one point went on tour with the Harlem Globetrotters, playing tennis during halftime of their basketball games.
Next up, a little anthropology and biology! The National Geographic reports on how an ancient dog skull shows how early humans paired up with some of their first pets.
It took 33,000 years, but one Russian dog is finally having its day.
The fossilized remains of a canine found in the 1970s in southern Siberia’s Altay Mountains (see map) is the earliest well-preserved pet dog, new research shows.
Dogs—the oldest domesticated animals—are common in the fossil record up to 14,000 years ago. But specimens from before about 26,500 years ago are very rare. This is likely due to the onset of the last glacial maximum, when the ice sheets are at their farthest extent during an ice age.
With such a sparse historical record, scientists have been mostly in the dark as to how and when wolves evolved into dogs, a process that could have happened in about 50 to a hundred years.
“That’s why our find is very important—we have a very lucky case,” said study co-author Yaroslav Kuzmin, a scientist at the Russian Academy of Sciences in Novosibirsk.
In the case of the Russian specimen, the animal was just on the cusp of becoming a fully domesticated dog when its breed died out.
So, it wouldn’t be me without some economics. Economist Greg Ip has a great post up at the WP on how Republicans’ new voodoo economics is worse than the old brand because the new brand isn’t based in economics at all. It’s a nice common sense essay on how fiscal and monetary policy work and how today’s crop of Republicans ignore about 90 years of economic theory and empirical studies
The new GOP views actually have a much longer pedigree: They are rooted in an intellectual contest that raged during the 1930s and 1940s, and had long been settled by the opposing side.
Before then, orthodox economics held that the economy was self-correcting. Just as the price of wheat or the wages of carpenters would always adjust to eliminate surpluses or shortages of either, so would wages throughout the economy adjust to eliminate temporary bouts of high unemployment.
The Great Depression shattered that orthodoxy, as high unemployment became entrenched in the United States and around the world. British economist John Maynard Keynes convincingly argued that when interest rates were zero — a condition he termed a “liquidity trap” — the economy’s self-correcting properties did not operate. The best solution, he argued, was a burst of public spending to restore demand and employment.
Ip goes on to explain how the competing view–Hayek’s Austrian school–was long discredited but has now made some kind of zombie comeback. This is especially true with Tea Party zealots and Ron Paul fans. What these folks talk about is not even taken seriously among any of the world’s economists. The Hayek-style alternatives were tried in South America and led to disaster. No main stream university teaches anything remotely resembling Austrian school “economics” and no serious peer-reviewed journals accept their work because it’s empirical evidence-free.
So, I couldn’t be remiss and leave out some climate science! Climate change has animals heading for the hills! That goes for plants too!
Regardless of what Rick Perry and the rest of Republican presidential candidate field believe (except for you, Jon Huntsman), climate change is real and it’s happening. The questions for the 98% of climate researchers who accept the consensus on man-made global warming is how fast the climate is changing, and what impact it will have on humanity and the planet.
Here’s one effect of warming scientists are already seeing: plants and animals migrating to cooler climates to escape hotter temperatures. In a study published in the August 18 Science, researchers in Britain and Taiwan found that species are moving in response to global warming up to three times faster than previously believed. Analyzing studies covering over 2,000 responses from plants and animals, the scientists found that on average, species have moved to higher elevations to escape warmer temperatures at 40 ft per decade, and moved to higher latitudes (ie, further away from the equator) at 11 miles per decade.
So, here’s a real shocker and it’s from a DKos diary. Today’s lesson in journalism shows us that we have a very uniformed commenteriat. Evidently Wolf Blitzer and Jack Cafferty had never heard of dominionisim until just recently. That’s the extreme christian belief that’s overtaking a lot of republican circles these days. Michelle Bachmann oozes it out of every pore. We’ve discussed it here considerably and Bostonboomer and I have written several posts on it.
You could probably hear my dropping jaw hitting the floor when I heard Jack Cafferty and Wolf Blitzer say they had never heard of dominionism until they read Michelle Goldberg’s article on The Daily Beast. They apparently had never heard of Christian Reconstructionism or the New Apostolic Reformation either. Goldberg’s article on Rick Perry and Michelle Bachmann’s relationship to all of this was certainly well done. But it is amazing that no other journalist of any prominence had looked into it before Goldberg’s revelations. There are many, and ever-more prominent pols with similar ties. And the failure of our national media and political culture to come to grips with this has been astounding. At least to me. As someone who has written about the Religious Right in its various dimensions for about 30 years, I’ve watched with horror as too many (but not all) mainstream media missed or misreported the stories of one of the most significant political movements of our time.
Blitzer and Cafferty et al have had plenty of opportunities to learn about dominionism and Christian Reconstructionism. They could have read Michelle Goldberg’s New York Times best-selling book Kingdom Coming: The Rise of Christian Nationalism, in 2006. They could have read my 1997 book, Eternal Hostility: The Struggle Between Theocracy and Democracy, or Sara Diamond’s 1989 classic, Spiritual Warfare: The Politics of the Christian Right. — to name but a few that deal specifically with dominionism and Christian Reconstructionism. We were all widely in the media, including national broadcasts talking about this stuff. They could also read material from such well established and well known organizations that study and counter the American right, as Americans United for Separation of Church & State and People for the American Way, and Political Research Associates. (PRA published my studyof Christian Reconstructionism in 1994.) Religion Dispatches reports on these things all the time as well. They have been discussed in wider context in books by such scholarly best selling authors as Gary Wills, Harvey Cox, Jeff Sharlet and Kevin Phillips, to also name but a few, and in major articles in magazines as diverse as Reason and Mother Jones. (I even discuss Christian Reconstructionism on camera in the 2007 Hollywood film documentary on the politics of abortion, Lake of Fire. Watch it for free, here.)
You really cannot have been awake in American public life for the past few decades and not have encountered dominionism and Christian Reconstructionism. Blitzer and Cafferty are far from alone in snoozing comfortably through this part of our national life. They are just more startlingly honest that this is no dream.
Now for a little SciFi lit. What if E.T. thinks we’re evil?
A study that reviews a host of sci-fi scenarios for contact with extraterrestrials stirred up such a ruckus today that NASA had to step in and distance itself from the research. The controversy focuses on the idea that E.T. could well decide that we’re a threat to interstellar order, and therefore we have to be stopped before we spread.
The report itself, published in the journal Acta Astronautica, covers ground that’s familiar to dedicated fans of E.T. lore. For example, the premise of the 1951 sci-fi classic “The Day the Earth Stood Still” is that universalist-minded aliens see our civilization as so rooted in violence that it’s better to snuff us out than let us ruin the neighborhood. (The 2008 remake, starring Keanu Reeves, recycled that idea with an environmental theme.)
Then there’s the “Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy” scenario, in which Earth is destroyed merely to make way for a new stretch of intergalactic infrastructure.
“At the heart of these scenarios is the possibility that intrinsic value may be more efficiently produced in our absence,” the researchers write.
The most familiar sci-fi scenario is the one in which the aliens are as selfish and territorial as we are, and want to wipe us out or enslave us and take our stuff. Think “War of the Worlds” or “Independence Day.” In such cases, the researchers note that there’s the potential for big payoffs … if we prevail.
Last up is our music lesson and ABCs rolled into one with this great song from kidhood by the Jackson five! Have a great Saturday and be sure to share what’s on your blogging and reading list today!!!








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