What Did Pakistan know and when did it know it?

The big question remaining in the operation that killed the world’s most wanted man is the role of Pakistan in the operation and in the last living arrangements of Osama Bin Laden.  Bin Laden and his 4th mail order bride and associates were living in a mansion in a military town close to a military base.  This is sure to raise a lot of questions.   There are several media outlets and blogs asking these questions. Those already included  are TPM.

The Democrats’ top armed services expert on Capitol Hill says Pakistan’s military and intelligence have grave questions to answer after Osama Bin Laden was killed in an elaborate compound, deep inside Pakistan, near a top Pakistani military facility.

“I think that the Pakistani army and intelligence have a lot of questions to answer, given the location, the length of time, and the apparent fact that this facility was built for bin Laden, and its closeness to the central location to the Pakistani army,” said Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI), who chairs the Senate Armed Services committee, in a Capitol briefing with reporters Monday morning.

“I think the Pakistani president’s statement today was a very reassuring statement — when he very specifically said that he thinks that it’s a great victory and a success, and to congratulate us on the success of the operation,” Levin added. “So reassured by his statement, not necessarily suspicious that he knew, or the civilian leadership knew. But I must tell you I hope that he will follow through — that the President of Pakistan Hardari will follow through and ask some very tough questions with his own military and his own intelligence. They’ve got a lot of explaining to do.”

A number of reports — including from President Obama himself — indicate that Pakistan facilitated the intelligence that ultimately led U.S. forces to bin Laden’s compound.

Response to the operation appears to depend on the source . The current President of Pakistan signals that Pakistan was in on the operation.  However, former President Pervez Musharif  of Pakistan questioned the operation and its impact on Pakistani soverignity. He did add that it would’ve been better for Pakistani special ops to carry out the mission.  Since the mansion was built in 2005, this raises some questions about the possibility that some Pakistani officials may have known,

Former Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf on Monday accused the U.S. of violating his country’s sovereignty by sending in special forces to kill Osama bin Laden.

“American troops coming across the border and taking action in one of our towns, that is Abbottabad, is not acceptable to the people of Pakistan. It is a violation of our sovereignty,” Mr. Musharraf told CNN-IBN, an Indian news channel.

He added that it would have been “far better if Pakistani Special Services Group had operated and conducted the mission. To that extent, the modality of handling it and executing the operation is not correct.”

Afghanistani officials believe that more information will show a bigger role of Pakistan in Bin Laden’s safe harbor of nearly 5 years.

“For some time there will be a lot of tension between Washington and Islamabad because Bin Laden seems to have been living here close to Islamabad,” Imtiaz Gul, a Pakistani security analyst, told Reuters. “Pakistan will have to do a lot of damage control. This is a serious blow to the credibility of Pakistan.”

In Kabul, Karzai seized on the news of Bin Laden’s death to criticise the US-led coalition, complaining that it was focused on counter-insurgency operations in the Pashtun south of Afghanistan rather than Taliban safe havens over the border.

“Year after year, day after day, we have said the fighting against terrorism is not in the villages of Afghanistan, not among the poor people of Afghanistan,” he said. “The fight against terrorism is in safe havens. It proves that Afghanistan was right.”

Aminuddin Muzafary, secretary of the High Peace Council established by Karzai, said Bin Laden’s death “removed the curtain from Pakistan’s face.” He added: “His death shows the unfaithfulness of Pakistan but it is also possible that it was a business deal between the CIA and the ISI. Time will reveal whether or not this was a deal or something else.”

The news was “very worrying,” said Abdullah Abdullah, Afghanistan’s top opposition leader. “Just a few weeks ago the Pakistanis were insisting that the US military and intelligence operations should be stopped in Pakistan and their agents should leave the country.”

The NYT’s Jane Perlez believes this questions will likely lead to suspicions of Pakistan.  What will happen in US-Pakistani relations?

The killing of Osama bin Laden deep inside Pakistan in an American operation, almost in plain sight in a medium-sized city that hosts numerous Pakistani forces, seems certain to further inflame tensions between the United States and Pakistan and raise significant questions about whether elements of the Pakistani spy agency knew the whereabouts of the leader of Al Qaeda.

The presence of Bin Laden in Pakistan, something Pakistani officials have long dismissed, goes to the heart of the lack of trust Washington has felt over the last 10 years with its contentious ally, the Pakistani military and its powerful spy partner, the Inter-Services Intelligence.

Interestingly enough, CNN reports that several Pakistani officials are disputing President Obama’s claim that this was a joint operation.

On bin Laden, President Obama said Pakistan helped provide intelligence that led the U.S. to the terrorist leader and praised Pakistan for its “close counterterrorism cooperation” but said no other country, including Pakistan, knew about the operation in advance.

Several Pakistani officials disputed Obama’s account, claiming credit for what they called a joint U.S.-ISI operation.

A senior Pakistani intelligence official said the U.S. intelligence was developed from information that the Pakistanis had gathered: mostly electronic intercepts that the source said the Pakistanis regularly provide to the U.S.

“Somehow it slipped from our radar and was picked up on theirs,” the official said.

The U.S. has long suspected that bin Laden was hiding in Pakistan, although officials suspected that he was given safe haven in the country’s remote tribal areas along the border with Afghanistan. In July, while in Pakistan, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton accused the Pakistani government of not doing enough in the hunt for bin Laden, suggesting that the government knew where he was.

The fact that bin Laden was found in a small city that is so close to the capital of Islamabad and home to the country’s military academy raises more questions than answers about how he could avoid capture for so long.

Did Pakistan’s ISI, long believed to have ties to al Qaeda and the Taliban, provide bin Laden sanctuary in Abbottabad? Did it tip the U.S. off to his whereabouts? Or was the government completely ignorant that the world’s most famous terrorist was living in the city?

The answers to those questions are critical and will go a long way to determining the course of the relationship going forward. They could both confirm Washington’s greatest concerns about Pakistan’s commitment to fighting terrorism and deepen mistrust on both sides, or they will prove Pakistan to be a genuine partner in the fight against extremism, which could create goodwill on both sides and give the relationship a much-needed boost.

Now that the FBI has updated its most-wanted list and the news has been spread around the world, many of the details of the operation as well as the search for intelligence on Bin Laden’s whereabouts will undoubtedly take center stage. Another question that will eventually arise will be the role of CIA interviews in collecting the information as well as the possible role of at least one Guantanamo detainee and the discovery of identities of Bin Laden couriers.   It’s interesting to watch all the celebrations around Ground Zero and the White House, but I am going to be much more interested in the LeCarre-like stuff that will follow. It will also be interesting to watch the growing questions surrounding Pakistan’s knowledge of the Bin Laden compound.


Monday Reads

Good Morning!

Well, the biggest news is the killing of Osama Bin Laden in a US operation.  The President announced the news on TV last night.  There were few details other than Bin Laden was killed in a US operation and was in Pakistan.  Spontaneous celebrations erupted across the U.S.  The entire statement can be read at NPR. The State Department has warned that there may be increased potential for violence against US citizens and a security alert has been announced for travelers.    WAPO is reporting that this was a Navy Seals operation that involved the CIA and Pakistani intelligence.

Obama said the operation took place in Abbottabad, a city of about 100,000 in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, about 100 miles north of Islamabad. Named for a British military officer who founded it as a military cantonment and summer retreat, it is the headquarters of a brigade of the Pakistan Army’s 2nd Division.

Bin Laden had long eluded U.S. forces throughout George W. Bush’s presidency, and the former president said Sunday that he congratulated Obama and the military and intelligence personnel who “devoted their lives to this mission.”

After weeks of chasing conspiracy stories about the President and dropping the F-bomb numerous times in a speech,  Donald Trump becomes the arbiter of good taste calling the White House correspondent’s dinner “inappropriate”.  I guess he really does like jokes about his nasty hairdo after all.

At the event, Obama made light of Trump’s repeated calls for him to release his birth certificate, something he did Wednesday, and Meyers made fun of everything from his hair to his presidential ambition. Although Trump appeared unamused during Saturday’s dinner, he said he was honored “in a certain way” to be a focal point.

“I really knew what I was getting into last night. I had no idea it would be to that extent where, you know just joke after joke after joke,” the mogul said. “It was almost like, is there anyone else they can talk about?”

He also found the event “inappropriate in certain respects” and spent the evening thinking about how “the American people are really suffering and we’re all having a good time.”

And what was his assessment of Meyers’ comedic timing?

“His (Meyers) delivery was not good. He’s a stutterer and he really was having a hard time,” Trump said of the “Saturday Night Live” star.

Is any one else but me still offended by Trump calling Rosie O’Donnell a pig?   So, first misogyny and now attacks on disabilities. So, now Seth Meyer is a ‘stutterer’. Stay classy, The Donald!   Guess he can dish it out but he can’t take it!

Reagan Budget Director David Stockman once more calls for raising taxes to take care of Federal budget problems.  It’s been interesting to watch all these Republican officials come out and tell other Republicans to do the responsible thing.

Asked by Reuter’s Chrystia Freeland if the economy could “sustain” a tax increase, Stockman said “absolutely,” noting that the economy only recovered under Reagan once he raisedtaxes in 1982 after “cut[ting] taxes too much” the year before:

FREELAND: You worked for Ronald Reagan. Do you think the American economy — so you’re, like, a red-blooded capitalist — could it sustain higher taxes than it has now?

STOCKMAN: Absolutely. In 1982, we were looking at the jaws of the worst recession since the 1930s. We overdid it in 1981, cut taxes too much. We came back with a big deficit reduction plan in 1982. Unemployment’s at 10 percent, the economy is in dire shape, and we raise taxes by 1.2 percent of GDP, which would be $150 billion a year right now — not 10 years down the road — but right now

Here’s one of those ‘Only in Washington, D.C” stories from The Hill.  Here’s another example of no funding for a delegated task.

President Obama launched a task force last week to look into oil and gas price manipulation, but a spending bill he signed into law earlier this month would prevent the government’s top statistical agency from analyzing that very issue.

The fiscal year 2011 spending legislation – a product of tense negotiations between Republicans and Democrats – cuts the Energy Information Administration’s budget by 14 percent.

Michelle Bachmann Godwins.  She compared the federal debt levels to the holocaust.  Ever wonder if there’s any actual history classes in her past?  How on earth can you compare anything that trivial to the mass slaughter of innoncent people in such a systemic and horrific way?

Bachmann, careful to note that there was no direct analogy in today’s times to the Holocaust, still tied the loss of “economic liberty” that Americans face today to the systematic killing of six million European Jews.

“We are seeing eclipsed in front of our eyes a similar death and a similar taking away,” Bachmann said. “It is this disenfranchisement that I think we have to answer to.”

In a reference to the Obama administration’s new health care law, the likely presidential candidate and tea party favorite said creating new entitlement programs that “there was never any hope or chance of being able” to pay for was an exercise in “fantasy economics.”

“All of the problems we’re facing with debt are manmade problems. We created them. It’s called fantasy economics,” she told Republicans gathered at Southern New Hampshire University. “Fantasy economics only works in a fantasy world. It doesn’t work in reality.”

If any one would know about fantasy worlds, I suggest it would be Michele Bachmann.

Project Syndicate is one of my favorite sites these days and this is a very descriptive headline by Pimco’s CEO Mohamed El-Erian: Sleepwalking through America’s Unemployment Crisis.

Let us start with the facts:

·         At 8.8% almost three years after the onset of the global financial crisis, America’s unemployment rate remains stubbornly (and unusually) high;

·         Rather than reflecting job creation, much of the improvement in recent months (from 9.8% in November last year) is due to workers exiting the labor force, thus driving workforce participation to a multi-year low of 64.2%;

·         If part-time workers eager to work full time are included, almost one in six workers in America are either under- or unemployed;

·         More than six million workers have been unemployed for more than six months, and four million for over a year;

·         Unemployment among 16-19 year olds is at a staggering 24%;

·         With virtually no earned income and dwindling savings, the unemployed are least able to manage the current surge in gasoline and food prices, they are effectively shut off from credit, and many have mortgage debt that exceed the value of their homes.

These and many other facts speak to an unpleasant and unusual reality for the United States. The country now has an unemployment problem that is large in magnitude and increasingly structural in nature. The consequences are multifaceted, involving immediate personal anguish, rising social and political tensions, economic losses, and budgetary pressures.

This is much more than a problem for the here and now. High and intractable unemployment has serious negative long-term consequences that threaten to become exponentially worse. This is a crisis.

So, there’s some headlines to think about!  What’s on your reading and blogging list today?

updated for this thread:  NationalJournal.com has some information on “The Secret Team that Killed Obama” that you  may want to check out. There’s also a timeline or tick tock for Bin Laden’s life.

From Ghazi Air Base in Pakistan, the modified MH-60 helicopters made their way to the garrison suburb of Abbottabad, about 30 miles from the center of Islamabad. Aboard were Navy SEALs, flown across the border from Afghanistan, along with tactical signals, intelligence collectors, and navigators using highly classified hyperspectral imagers.

After bursts of fire over 40 minutes, 22 people were killed or captured. One of the dead was Osama bin Laden, done in by a double tap — boom, boom — to the left side of his face. His body was aboard the choppers that made the trip back. One had experienced mechanical failure and was destroyed by U.S. forces, military and White House officials tell National Journal.

Were it not for this high-value target, it might have been a routine mission for the specially trained and highly mythologized SEAL Team Six, officially called the Naval Special Warfare Development Group, but known even to the locals at their home base Dam Neck in Virginia as just DevGru.


Five Meetings over Two Months lead to Kill Order (update)

CNN is getting more details as reporters are being briefed.

I just can't wait for the next South Park Osama adventure ...

Ed Henry has just clarified the timing of the Bin Laden killing.  Evidently, the President and the National Security Council met five times between March 4th and April 30th.  The President issued the kill order during the Royal Wedding.  Bin Laden was killed today.

Gloria Borger has been briefed too.  Borger says Bil Laden was killed in a compound that was built in 2005.  It was well armored.  The intelligence came from people watching messengers going in and out  and also reports that the compound burned trash instead of dumping it.  The mansion had been under surveillance for some time.  There were quite a few people living there  including one that met Bin Laden’s odd description It was a million dollar complex but there was no TV or internet.

Chris Lemon says the operations included a helicopter raid involving Navy Seals.  There were practice runs to minimize casualties in the area.  There was one helicopter that failed to get to the operations.  No one was hurt but the helicopter was destroyed.

Bin Laden was in Abbottabad; not in caves.   This is an affluent neighborhood filled with retired Pakistani military officals.  The compound was 8 times larger than similar homes in the area and had incredible security including enforced walls that were 12-18 feet tall and topped with barbed wire.   This situation attracted attention.

CNN says confirms the US has the body.

A team of U.S. Navy SEALs carried out the operation in Pakistan that ended in the death of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, CNN’s Chris Lawrence reported.  The operation lasted about 40 minutes, and the team had practiced the raid a few times.

Earlier, CNN’s Nick Paton Walsh, citing  a senior Pakistani intelligence official, reported that members of Pakistan’s intelligence service – the ISI – were on site in Abbotabad, Pakistan, during the operation that killed  bin Laden. The official said he did not know who fired the shot that actually killed Bin Laden.

[Updated, 12:11 a.m. ET]  Members of Pakistan’s intelligence service – the ISI – were on site in Abbotabad, Pakistan, during the operation that killed Osama bin Laden, CNN’s Nick Paton Walsh reports, citing a senior Pakistani intelligence official. The official said he did not know who fired the shot that actually killed Bin Laden.

The US has issued a worldwide travel alert.  The U.S. State Department warns that “enhanced potential for anti-American violence” is possible following bin Laden’s death.

GEO TV from Pakistan has a video of the fire at the compound.


Breaking News: Osama Bin Laden is Dead

Live coverage from CNN here. The US has his body.  It’s been verified. Bin Laden was killed in  a US operation in Pakistan. Updates coming continually.

CSPAN coverage here.

President Obama will be making an announcement on TV shortly.

What I’m seeing right now is that he was killed in a predator drone strike. ABC reports  that there is a DNA match.  John King is saying they have actionable US intelligence.

CNN: Bin Laden killed “In a mansion outside Islamabad along with other family members.”

There’s a lot of twitter stuff out there about how he was killed.  It sounds like this operation may have started about  a week ago.  Obviously, the President’s speech is going to clear some of this up.

Update: The President has announced that it was a US operation outside of Islamabad and that there was a fire fight. Evidently, US special forces acted on the “actionable” intelligence.  The attack was today.


Skepticism Remains about Reports of Deaths in Gaddafi Family

Media sources are still reporting the supposed deaths of Saif al-Arab and three of Muammar Gaddafi’s grandchildren in quotation marks. As yet, there has been no independent confirmation that these deaths actually took place. Al Jazeera reports that “skepticism surrounds” the reports from Libya.

Al Jazeera’s Sue Turton, reporting from Benghazi, said there were “an awful lot” of suggestions in Libya that the news of the deaths could be fabricated.

“One of the main spokesmen for the Transitional National Council, Abdul Hafez Goga, is saying he thinks it could all be fabrication, that it may well be Gaddafi is trying to garner some sympathy,” she said.

“Back in 1986, Gaddafi once claimed that Ronald Reagan, then US president, had launched a strike on his compound in Tripoli and killed his daughter. Many journalists since then dug around and found out that the actual child that had died had nothing to do with Gaddafi, that he sort of adopted her posthumously.”

Supposedly Muammar Gaddafi and his wife were in his youngest son’s compound when it was bombed. Gaddafi spokesman Moussa Ibriham took “journalists to the remnants of a house in Tripoli, which Libyan officials said had been hit by at least three missiles. It appeared unlikely anyone inside could have survived.”

Then how did Gaddafi and his wife survive? And how do we know that the house belonged to Gaddafi’s son? None of this has been confirmed. Why?

From Bloomberg:

The U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization declined to confirm that Muammar Qaddafi’s youngest son, Saif al-Arab, and three grandchildren were killed in an allied air strike on a house in Tripoli, an assertion made by a Libyan official earlier today.

“We do not” have confirmation of his death “and I’m not sure exactly what the situation was,” Senator John McCain of Arizona, ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, said today on CBS’s “Face the Nation” program. The U.S. State Department referred inquiries to NATO.

“No confirmation from NATO,” Chris Riley, a NATO spokesman in Brussels, said in an e-mail.

Nato also denies deliberately trying to kill anyone in the Gaddafi family. From the Guardian

“All Nato’s targets are military in nature and have been clearly linked to the Gaddafi regime’s systematic attacks on the Libyan population and populated areas. We do not target individuals,” said Lieutenant General Charles Bouchard, the Canadian officer commanding the military operations in Libya from Naples.

And this was just posted on Twitter:

The claim that Muammar Qaddafi’s three grandchildren were killed in an airstrike conducted by NATO late Saturday is not true, an Al Arabiya source has revealed. A source close to the Qaddafi family has confirmed the death of Colonel Qaddafi’s youngest son, Saif al-Arab, in the airstrike but has denied the story that Mr. Qaddafi’s three grandsons were killed.

But the article notes:

Colonel Qaddafi has been known to sire a great many children, and no reliable count exists. News sources have said that his personal life is very colorful. Female foreign correspondents that have interviewed Mr. Qaddafi over the years have reported that he would frequently offer them demonstrations of his sexual prowess.

Mr. Qaddafi’s announcements concerning the alleged deaths of family members at the hands of foreign powers sometimes do not hold up to subsequent scrutiny….

Libyans generally do not trust this sort of information anymore, a source close to the Qaddafi family said to Al Arabiya.

Revising history about his family members is something that has happened before as far as Colonel Qaddafi is concerned.

So what is the real truth and why is it taking so long for it to be revealed?