Election Day Mid-Morning Open Thread: Polls
Posted: November 6, 2012 Filed under: 2012 elections, 2012 presidential campaign, Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, open thread, U.S. Politics | Tags: electoral votes, Mark Blumenthal, Nate Silver, poll aggregators, polls, Sam Wang, swing states 74 Comments
There are good signs for President Obama in the latest national polls, and among the poll aggregators. Two of the most recent national polls show Obama at 50% and leading by 3 percentage points.
The final Pew Poll from Nov. 4 had Obama at 50% and Romney at 47% nationally, and The WSJ/ABC News Poll found the same result yesterday.
At HuffPo, Mark Blumenthal has the latest aggregated results from Pollster showing a likely Obama win. Here are the latest national polls.
And the latest Ohio polls.
You’ll find lots more info and charts at the HuffPo link.
Nate Silver put up a late post at 1:42 this morning: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds
Mitt Romney has always had difficulty drawing a winning Electoral College hand. Even during his best period of polling, in the week or two after the first presidential debate in Denver, he never quite pulled ahead in the polling averages in Ohio and other states that would allow him to secure 270 electoral votes.
But the most recent set of polls suggest another problem for Mr. Romney, whose momentum in the polls stalled out in mid-October. Instead, it is President Obama who is making gains.
Among 12 national polls published on Monday, Mr. Obama led by an average of 1.6 percentage points. Perhaps more important is the trend in the surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained 1.5 percentage points from the prior edition of the same polls, improving his standing in nine of the surveys while losing ground in just one.
Right now, Silver estimates Obama’s chances of winning at 91.6% and projects he’ll win 315 electoral votes. Romney’s chances of winning are only 8.4% and he is projected to win 223 electoral votes.
Finally, here’s Sam Wang’s latest post: Presidential prediction 2012 (Election Eve) He is also predicting an Obama win.
Have you voted yet? Were the polls crowded? If you’re in a swing state, or in touch with people in swing states, what are you hearing?
peej
Carissa
ecocatwoman
grayslady
mablue2
NW Luna
peggysue22
quixote
skydancingguestblogger
Mona (aka Wonk the Vote)
Sky Dancing 
I was planning to watch MSNBC all day, but they’ve got the Morning Joe crew still on with guests like Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, and Hayley Barbour. Yucko!
The junior varsity squad on MSNBC.
Back in the day – oh about 40 years ago, I worked with a sales guy who left to create a polling company and ultimately did very well financially. Whenever I see polls, I see the guy I used to know as a salesman – charming but full of bullsheite. I’ve been polled numerous times, and it’s all in how they phrase the questions and how they parse the responses. They also discard any responses that do not conform to their underlying objectives. Given that, I would not put too much credence on any poll, so take heart SD’s, it’s not over till the overweight man sings.
P.S. that sales guy runs one of the most respected polling companies here – just goes to show you, any scam artist can make a fortune by spewing bullsheite.
Me to bb………….I just about flew out of my chair listening to Giuliana………..talk about how he had a crystal ball and knew exactly where to put generators after 9/11…………right.
One thing we need to work on with Obama in the next four years, is getting him to create jobs by investing in the infracture to build power systems that will serve us much better in times of serve weather and when large numbers of people are without power. We need to demand underground systems that will not be prone to failures. We should hire and train men and women engineers and workers, for highway systems, bridges, dams, because the whole country is way behind, and the only way to improve it, to do it, is with government spending. It’s got to be done, Obama’s crew can do it………JOBS.
Like he put his emergency management office in Building 7 against all reasonable advice? Giuliani is a pathological liar just like Romney and Ryan.
I agree on jobs. Harry Reid needs to get rid of the filibuster and get some bills passed fast.
BB – bet you that tomorrow when Romney loses, Old Joe won’t be around, he won’t be found, cause he doesn’t like talking about his defeat. He likes talking over everybody else, and that drives me away.
Good. I hope he takes the day off. I can’t stand him.
Seen on Twitter: Chrysler gave their workers the day off to vote in Ohio!!
Good for them. Sam Wang has his Senate predictions and Presidential prediction now.
http://election.princeton.edu/2012/11/06/senate-prediction-final-election-eve/#more-8603
Thanks! He thinks Heidi Heitkamp has a 90% chance of winning in North Dakota!
The whackadoodles over at HyperboleVille are furiously stoking the flames of fear.
“Coulter predicts ‘the end of America’ if Romney’s not around to repeal health reform”
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/11/06/coulter-predicts-the-end-of-america-if-romneys-not-around-to-repeal-health-reform/
Henri Le Chat on politics. There is an ad that precedes the short video of the angst filled kitty. The other videos are well worth watching, too! 🙂
You can find all of the Henri videos located conveniently at a friend’s blog.
http://www.35jupiterdrive.com/2012/11/henri-le-chat-noir.html
I love Henri! Those videos are priceless.
Ditto – J’aime Henri le chat – tres bon, merci.
HT, I’m so glad you’re here with us today! Stay around tonight if you can and don’t be a lurker. We need you.
BTW, you might enjoy this: My mother, whose grandmother was of French Canadian background, still remembers her French phrases. When I get her some hot coffee, I always ask if it’s okay and she answers, “Tres bon, merci.”
Creepy story about a FL retirement village where Dems are discriminated against.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/06/the-villages-florida_n_2076715.html
BB that place is like a stepford hell The Villages”. I just got back from voting and was shocked that there was a line. I’ve voted here for 25 years, never more than 3 people in front of me. Checking out the line as I walked forward, all white, drizzling rain. Most people seemed upbeat talking about they had been voting here for 40 years and never had to wait. Two women in line got in a kerfuffle over breaking line, that put a damper on the mood thank god we were close to the door by then. Once inside, with two women in front of me the first one was at the wrong precinct. The next lady, much older, was ask to pronounce her last name Mrs. Quite she said. She was the one I was talking to the most so I giggled and said “and she is very quite”. The AssHole scanning our ID’s said to both of us “One of you is quite and you, pointing to me, want to put women in jail”, Let explain why he said this to me, this lady and I were talking about voting rights the lady said she always votes because people died to get to vote I answered her with talking about my grandmother casting her first vote and that women had been jailed for our right to vote. This ass hole actually said to me NO women ever went to jail trying to vote. I asked him if he was kidding, he wasn’t and added women just vote the way their husbands tell them! I was actually so mad I was shaking while I was coloring in those little dots. I got my “I voted” sticker. The End. If he hadn’t been sitting down I could have “accidently” kicked him in the balls.
pd, I’d contact the Supervisor of Elections about him. How stupid can someone be? Okay, now I’m mad for you.
BTW, The Villages is a very upscale, mostly Republican enclave of rich retirees. It is one of those “manufactured” Florida cities. A developer buys “vacant” land by the acres and builds homes & gets people to move to the “new” town. So many Florida cities started that way. The Villages is where Rick Scott held a campaign event & would not let any non-Republicans attend.
Jesus! You should report that guy to the DOJ for harrassing voters.
I have calmed down now but I continued to be upset when I got home, a knock on the door, FedX, a package for my husband I need to sign for. She handed me the little electronic box to sign and I said “Just any name” she said “Yes just forge any name” we both laughed like hell. So I started signing and saying out loud B..ar..ck O..ba..ma! She laughed again. Then I quit drinking coffee.
I should have put this on my last post @ 12:05
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 !
Some links to Rick Scott & The Villages:
http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/article1172016.ece – budget signing, Dems not welcome
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/os-fla-governor-signs-budget.jpg-20121002,0,7567708.photo – charter school students with pro-Scott signs
I love this one – http://www.thevillagesfloridabook.com/rick-scott-and-mitt-romney-rally-in-the-villages/
I voted last week. In our state we all vote by mail and fill out our ballots at home. no lines. and they are not electronic so they can’t be changed. Hallelujah!!
That’s the way it should be.
Oregon pretty much has absentee ballots………
My latest (and hopefully the last) post about Romney.
http://listofx.wordpress.com/2012/11/06/10-ways-how-mitt-romneys-experience-had-prepared-him-to-be-president/
Going to vote later today to help make sure that will be the case. Go Obama/Warren!
One of your best X. I particularly like number 11 – there is no there – there.
Thank you. That’s actually a good metaphor for many of Romney’s promises, plans, and.strategies: “there is no there – there”
Absolutely hysterical. I did my part on Saturday & voted for someone else. In fact, all the someone elses for whom I voted had a Big D after their names.
Thank you. And I’m just back from my polling place where I did the same. No lines – waited in line for about 45 seconds.
Charles Pierce’s daughter Molly writes like her dad. Wonderful post.
Election AM in Virginia: A Blip, a Freakout & Kool-Aid
Obama team is confident of winning–maybe winning big.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/the-obama-team-confident-until-the-end/2012/11/06/fd959ddc-282c-11e2-96b6-8e6a7524553f_blog.html
Lloyd Bankfein (Goldman CEO) left the voting line without voting this morning. Maybe he thought he should have been escorted to the front?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/06/us-storm-sandy-hurricane-idUSBRE89N16J20121106
masters of the universe are apparently very busy screwing up the world and don’t have time to wait 🙂
LOL!!!! Poor rich man Blankfein.Forced to stand in line with the regulars. No red carpet, no throne, no Hors d’oeuvre, no dom perignon. It’s rough out in the real world.
.@MittRomney cuts to the front of the voting line this morning… because he’s better than us: http://bit.ly/Xh6VVy
That’s my town! It’s right next to Belmont.
Mark Knoller @markknoller
Virginia Board of Elections reports 1-3 hour wait in No. Virginia & Virginia Beach. Over 4 hours in some precincts in Prince William County
Is that the Dem part of VA?
I thought the appropriate supervisor of elections went to the offices of important people, like CEOs, and recorded their votes directly. Wow, hard to believe that such an important person would have to associate with the unwashed masses to cast his very important vote. What is this country coming to?
OMG this could lead to a hilarious cluster of f*ck near magnitude 11.
TBogg: Officer, please, for God’s sake, they’re looting the Food King!
msnbc with the voter’s video of the flaky machine.
Machine turns vote for Obama into one for Romney
Good grief, they can’t even be subtle in their attempts to steal the election. Not good new for the other world leaders should they achieve their goal. I wonder if they tested all the other machines.
There’s long lines every where here in New Orleans and LA isn’t even a swing state. People here are MAD.
I’m going to vote at about 5. I meant to vote earlier but it’s been raining and I vote in a fire station garage and walk there since its about 1 1/2 blocks from my house. If the wind blows right, it comes right into the garage.
Now on .@thenation Colorado’s Latino voters may have to overcome harassment to cast their ballots: http://bitly.com/YE448t #covotes #LatinoVote
Wow, Mitt and Ryan are going to lose in every state that they own a home, in the states that know them the most. Even with Bain in NY, he loses. And Ryan will lose in DC……………not sure about Belmont, Mass………………….
Anybody see Romney or Ryan in line waiting to vote?
He’s losing bigtime in MA, don’t worry. Belmont is most likely pretty liberal, just like my town which is right next door.
Well, here’s another view of our election from Germany.
Der Spiegel: America Has Already Lost Tuesday’s Election
It’s all true, but I don’t know that Angela Merkel is doing all that well for Europe with her austerity agenda.
Agree. I really don’t think they are in the best position to complain.
I totally agree with those last 2 paragraphs. I too no longer understand America, nor will it survive in the present climate of political division and polarization, and citzen stupidity.
The swift boater, Sinclair Broadcasting, is at it again in Ohio.
TPM: Ohio Viewers Hit By Anti-Obama TV ‘Special’ On Election Eve
Emptywheel reports on turnout in MI African American district where she worked “voter protection.”
Reporting from NY…I voted this morning. Turnout was very strong and there were lots of poll workers available to help people with their questions/problems.
Good grief, that clip is offensive…..really bad taste.
Scott Keyes @smkeyes
Columbus-area poll worker tells me more than half their expected turnout (600 voters) had shown up and cast their ballot by 9am
Chrysler gives workers day off to vote
The car company Chrysler gave its employees the entire day off on Election Day to vote, according to Politico. In the final weeks of the presidential campaign, Mitt Romney launched a controversial ad in Ohio claiming that Chrysler was moving manufacturing jobs to China. The ad was so misleading it not only drew criticism from fact checkers, it even caused auto workers to fear losing their jobs.
Tommy Thompson joked while talking to workers at the La Crosse steel fabricator that he got a deer even before the season opener. Actually it was one of his campaign cars; he said he was riding in the bus behind it when the crash happened early Sunday near Shawano. “Nobody was hurt,” he said. “It did a lot of damage. I think the deer was named Tammy Baldwin, but I’m not sure.”
What an asshole!
And that comment from Thompson is even more offensive. What is wrong with those people?
TeaVangelicals are lost in the 50’s.
Tony (hate-the-gay) Perkins says, If Obama loses, God will delay judgment
Well tha’st just so special? FU Perkins!
Ha!
Rick Santorum
@RickSantorum
I’d never vote for Obama. Romney again distorting truth. Obamacare=Romneycare. Mitt is unelectable. ht.ly/9QnvK
John Podhoretz, National Review, The New York Post
“What’s with all the complaining with waiting on line to vote? People wait 2 hours to go on a rollercoaster, for God’s sake.
Limbaugh: “Moochelle Obama” Is Campaigning With “NBA Players And Others” To Rally “The Base, The Black Vote Base”
While I think my American friends are all terrific, a large percentage of your country seems to have lost it’s collective hive mind.
HT, I can name a hundred of the top of my head, and I’m losing my head! 🙂
Fresh thread up top!!
Thanks for all of this BB!! I have another hour of work than I have to go vote …
Wow, busy today, thank you BB for putting these up. I must have passed out, I’ve got no idea what is going on. Hopefully it is good.