Election Day Mid-Morning Open Thread: Polls

There are good signs for President Obama in the latest national polls, and among the poll aggregators. Two of the most recent national polls show Obama at 50% and leading by 3 percentage points.

The final Pew Poll from Nov. 4 had Obama at 50% and Romney at 47% nationally, and The WSJ/ABC News Poll found the same result yesterday.

At HuffPo, Mark Blumenthal has the latest aggregated results from Pollster showing a likely Obama win. Here are the latest national polls.

And the latest Ohio polls.

You’ll find lots more info and charts at the HuffPo link.

Nate Silver put up a late post at 1:42 this morning: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds

Mitt Romney has always had difficulty drawing a winning Electoral College hand. Even during his best period of polling, in the week or two after the first presidential debate in Denver, he never quite pulled ahead in the polling averages in Ohio and other states that would allow him to secure 270 electoral votes.

But the most recent set of polls suggest another problem for Mr. Romney, whose momentum in the polls stalled out in mid-October. Instead, it is President Obama who is making gains.

Among 12 national polls published on Monday, Mr. Obama led by an average of 1.6 percentage points. Perhaps more important is the trend in the surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained 1.5 percentage points from the prior edition of the same polls, improving his standing in nine of the surveys while losing ground in just one.

Right now, Silver estimates Obama’s chances of winning at 91.6% and projects he’ll win 315 electoral votes. Romney’s chances of winning are only 8.4% and he is projected to win 223 electoral votes.

Finally, here’s Sam Wang’s latest post: Presidential prediction 2012 (Election Eve) He is also predicting an Obama win.

Have you voted yet? Were the polls crowded? If you’re in a swing state, or in touch with people in swing states, what are you hearing?

74 Comments on “Election Day Mid-Morning Open Thread: Polls”

  1. bostonboomer says:

    I was planning to watch MSNBC all day, but they’ve got the Morning Joe crew still on with guests like Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, and Hayley Barbour. Yucko!

  2. HT says:

    Back in the day – oh about 40 years ago, I worked with a sales guy who left to create a polling company and ultimately did very well financially. Whenever I see polls, I see the guy I used to know as a salesman – charming but full of bullsheite. I’ve been polled numerous times, and it’s all in how they phrase the questions and how they parse the responses. They also discard any responses that do not conform to their underlying objectives. Given that, I would not put too much credence on any poll, so take heart SD’s, it’s not over till the overweight man sings.

    • HT says:

      P.S. that sales guy runs one of the most respected polling companies here – just goes to show you, any scam artist can make a fortune by spewing bullsheite.

  3. Fannie says:

    Me to bb………….I just about flew out of my chair listening to Giuliana………..talk about how he had a crystal ball and knew exactly where to put generators after 9/11…………right.

    One thing we need to work on with Obama in the next four years, is getting him to create jobs by investing in the infracture to build power systems that will serve us much better in times of serve weather and when large numbers of people are without power. We need to demand underground systems that will not be prone to failures. We should hire and train men and women engineers and workers, for highway systems, bridges, dams, because the whole country is way behind, and the only way to improve it, to do it, is with government spending. It’s got to be done, Obama’s crew can do it………JOBS.

    • bostonboomer says:

      Like he put his emergency management office in Building 7 against all reasonable advice? Giuliani is a pathological liar just like Romney and Ryan.

      I agree on jobs. Harry Reid needs to get rid of the filibuster and get some bills passed fast.

    • Fannie says:

      BB – bet you that tomorrow when Romney loses, Old Joe won’t be around, he won’t be found, cause he doesn’t like talking about his defeat. He likes talking over everybody else, and that drives me away.

  4. bostonboomer says:

    Seen on Twitter: Chrysler gave their workers the day off to vote in Ohio!!

  5. ANonOMouse says:

    The whackadoodles over at HyperboleVille are furiously stoking the flames of fear.

    “Coulter predicts ‘the end of America’ if Romney’s not around to repeal health reform”


  6. Delphyne says:

    Henri Le Chat on politics. There is an ad that precedes the short video of the angst filled kitty. The other videos are well worth watching, too! 🙂

  7. bostonboomer says:

    Creepy story about a FL retirement village where Dems are discriminated against.


    • pdgrey says:

      BB that place is like a stepford hell The Villages”. I just got back from voting and was shocked that there was a line. I’ve voted here for 25 years, never more than 3 people in front of me. Checking out the line as I walked forward, all white, drizzling rain. Most people seemed upbeat talking about they had been voting here for 40 years and never had to wait. Two women in line got in a kerfuffle over breaking line, that put a damper on the mood thank god we were close to the door by then. Once inside, with two women in front of me the first one was at the wrong precinct. The next lady, much older, was ask to pronounce her last name Mrs. Quite she said. She was the one I was talking to the most so I giggled and said “and she is very quite”. The AssHole scanning our ID’s said to both of us “One of you is quite and you, pointing to me, want to put women in jail”, Let explain why he said this to me, this lady and I were talking about voting rights the lady said she always votes because people died to get to vote I answered her with talking about my grandmother casting her first vote and that women had been jailed for our right to vote. This ass hole actually said to me NO women ever went to jail trying to vote. I asked him if he was kidding, he wasn’t and added women just vote the way their husbands tell them! I was actually so mad I was shaking while I was coloring in those little dots. I got my “I voted” sticker. The End. If he hadn’t been sitting down I could have “accidently” kicked him in the balls.

      • ecocatwoman says:

        pd, I’d contact the Supervisor of Elections about him. How stupid can someone be? Okay, now I’m mad for you.

        BTW, The Villages is a very upscale, mostly Republican enclave of rich retirees. It is one of those “manufactured” Florida cities. A developer buys “vacant” land by the acres and builds homes & gets people to move to the “new” town. So many Florida cities started that way. The Villages is where Rick Scott held a campaign event & would not let any non-Republicans attend.

      • bostonboomer says:

        Jesus! You should report that guy to the DOJ for harrassing voters.

      • pdgrey says:

        I have calmed down now but I continued to be upset when I got home, a knock on the door, FedX, a package for my husband I need to sign for. She handed me the little electronic box to sign and I said “Just any name” she said “Yes just forge any name” we both laughed like hell. So I started signing and saying out loud B..ar..ck O..ba..ma! She laughed again. Then I quit drinking coffee.

      • pdgrey says:

        I should have put this on my last post @ 12:05
        🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 !

  8. janey says:

    I voted last week. In our state we all vote by mail and fill out our ballots at home. no lines. and they are not electronic so they can’t be changed. Hallelujah!!

  9. List of X says:

    My latest (and hopefully the last) post about Romney.
    Going to vote later today to help make sure that will be the case. Go Obama/Warren!

  10. RalphB says:

    Charles Pierce’s daughter Molly writes like her dad. Wonderful post.

    Election AM in Virginia: A Blip, a Freakout & Kool-Aid

  11. bostonboomer says:

    Lloyd Bankfein (Goldman CEO) left the voting line without voting this morning. Maybe he thought he should have been escorted to the front?


    • RalphB says:

      masters of the universe are apparently very busy screwing up the world and don’t have time to wait 🙂

    • ecocatwoman says:

      I thought the appropriate supervisor of elections went to the offices of important people, like CEOs, and recorded their votes directly. Wow, hard to believe that such an important person would have to associate with the unwashed masses to cast his very important vote. What is this country coming to?

  12. RalphB says:

    OMG this could lead to a hilarious cluster of f*ck near magnitude 11.

    TBogg: Officer, please, for God’s sake, they’re looting the Food King!

    Hey kids!

    Who is up for some election day hijinks!

    Yeah? Really? You are?

    Okay, let’s do this thing!

    It seems that the Teabaggers got a little more organized this year, outside of recruiting pro-rapey candidates, and they up and formed themselves a Concerned White Citizens Council-y thing charged with sittin’ around on their hoverounds at the polling places and making sure that the browns and the blahs don’t get uppity and try and white-man vote. This new group is called True The Vote: …

  13. RalphB says:

    msnbc with the voter’s video of the flaky machine.

    Machine turns vote for Obama into one for Romney

    A Pennsylvania electronic voting machine has been taken out of service after being captured on video changing a vote for President Obama into one for Mitt Romney, NBC News has confirmed.

    The video was first posted on Youtube by user “centralpavoter.” It shows a voter’s finger repeatedly pressing the button for Obama, but a check mark coming up next to Romney’s name:

    NBC News confirmed that the machine has been taken off line.

    • HT says:

      Good grief, they can’t even be subtle in their attempts to steal the election. Not good new for the other world leaders should they achieve their goal. I wonder if they tested all the other machines.

    • dakinikat says:

      There’s long lines every where here in New Orleans and LA isn’t even a swing state. People here are MAD.

      • dakinikat says:

        I’m going to vote at about 5. I meant to vote earlier but it’s been raining and I vote in a fire station garage and walk there since its about 1 1/2 blocks from my house. If the wind blows right, it comes right into the garage.

    • dakinikat says:

      Now on .@thenation Colorado’s Latino voters may have to overcome harassment to cast their ballots: http://bitly.com/YE448t #covotes #LatinoVote

  14. Fannie says:

    Wow, Mitt and Ryan are going to lose in every state that they own a home, in the states that know them the most. Even with Bain in NY, he loses. And Ryan will lose in DC……………not sure about Belmont, Mass………………….

    Anybody see Romney or Ryan in line waiting to vote?

    • bostonboomer says:

      He’s losing bigtime in MA, don’t worry. Belmont is most likely pretty liberal, just like my town which is right next door.

  15. RalphB says:

    Well, here’s another view of our election from Germany.

    Der Spiegel: America Has Already Lost Tuesday’s Election

    Germans see the US election as a battle between the good Obama and the evil Romney. But this is a mistake. Regardless of who wins the election on Tuesday, total capitalism is America’s true ruler, and it has the power to destroy the country.

    • RalphB says:

      The truth is that we simply no longer understand America. Looking at the country from Germany and Europe, we see a foreign culture. The political system is in the hands of big business and its lobbyists. The checks and balances have failed. And a perverse mix of irresponsibility, greed and religious zealotry dominate public opinion.

      The downfall of the American empire has begun. It could be that the country’s citizens wouldn’t be able to stop it no matter how hard they tried. But they aren’t even trying.

      • bostonboomer says:

        It’s all true, but I don’t know that Angela Merkel is doing all that well for Europe with her austerity agenda.

      • RalphB says:

        Agree. I really don’t think they are in the best position to complain.

      • peregrine says:

        I totally agree with those last 2 paragraphs. I too no longer understand America, nor will it survive in the present climate of political division and polarization, and citzen stupidity.

  16. RalphB says:

    The swift boater, Sinclair Broadcasting, is at it again in Ohio.

    TPM: Ohio Viewers Hit By Anti-Obama TV ‘Special’ On Election Eve

  17. bostonboomer says:

    Emptywheel reports on turnout in MI African American district where she worked “voter protection.”


  18. madamab says:

    Reporting from NY…I voted this morning. Turnout was very strong and there were lots of poll workers available to help people with their questions/problems.

  19. pdgrey says:

    Scott Keyes @smkeyes

    Columbus-area poll worker tells me more than half their expected turnout (600 voters) had shown up and cast their ballot by 9am

    • pdgrey says:

      Chrysler gives workers day off to vote

      The car company Chrysler gave its employees the entire day off on Election Day to vote, according to Politico. In the final weeks of the presidential campaign, Mitt Romney launched a controversial ad in Ohio claiming that Chrysler was moving manufacturing jobs to China. The ad was so misleading it not only drew criticism from fact checkers, it even caused auto workers to fear losing their jobs.

      • pdgrey says:

        Tommy Thompson joked while talking to workers at the La Crosse steel fabricator that he got a deer even before the season opener. Actually it was one of his campaign cars; he said he was riding in the bus behind it when the crash happened early Sunday near Shawano. “Nobody was hurt,” he said. “It did a lot of damage. I think the deer was named Tammy Baldwin, but I’m not sure.”

      • HT says:

        And that comment from Thompson is even more offensive. What is wrong with those people?

  20. ANonOMouse says:

    TeaVangelicals are lost in the 50’s.

    Tony (hate-the-gay) Perkins says, If Obama loses, God will delay judgment

  21. pdgrey says:

    John Podhoretz, National Review, The New York Post
    “What’s with all the complaining with waiting on line to vote? People wait 2 hours to go on a rollercoaster, for God’s sake.

  22. bostonboomer says:

    Fresh thread up top!!