Mostly Monday Reads: Nothing Fit to Read

“Trump issues heartfelt condolences upon hearing of the death of former republican FBI Director Robert Mueller while golfing.” John Buss, @repeat1968

Good Day, Sky Dancers!

The headlines today demonstrate exactly how far down the drain our country has gone in a very short period. Here in New Orleans, we’re inundated once again by ICE and the National Guard. They’re taking on TSA duties at the Airport.  “ICE agents begin patrol at New Orleans airport as security lines surge for second day.” These folks have proved themselves to be violent, untrained cretins, yet our Governor, himself a cretin, welcomes them wholeheartedly. Can you imagine a better way to wreck the tremendous amount of tourist business and the incredible trade that comes here from South America? This NOLA.COM article provides brief details of the unfolding situation.

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement deployed to Louis Armstrong International in New Orleans Monday morning as airports across the country continue to battle delays and security agent sick-outs amid a partial government shutdown.

ICE’s presence comes days after President Donald Trump said he would send agents to airports to help with long lines caused by the shutdown. The New York Times confirmed that the New Orleans airport was one of 14 where ICE would be deployed to assist Transportation Security Administration workers.

“The airport has staff on hand to help keep the lines organized and will continue to coordinate with the TSA as they navigate this issue. The airport has also been advised by the TSA that additional security resources from the federal agency, ICE, are onsite on Monday to support TSA security functions,” MSY spokesperson Erin Burns said in a statement.

Be sure to take a look at the photos in this article. Our airport looks like it’s undergoing a military takeover. They’re supposedly going unmasked, but the vests and colors just are not a good look imho.

According to TSA experts, this move is useless. This is from the Government Executive, as reported by Eric Katz. “‘No practical use’: TSA experts say Trump’s ICE deployments won’t help with airport security. More than 400 TSA employees have left the agency since the shutdown began last month, White House says.”

President Trump will beginning Monday shift Immigration and Customs Enforcement personnel to airports to provide security there in a move he said will alleviate long lines created by shutdown-induced callouts but which experienced TSA officials said would have minimal impact.

The unusual approach comes as Trump administration officials have repeatedly lamented that Transportation Security Administration employees are calling out and quitting the agency due to the shutdown’s impact on paychecks, lengthening wait times at many airports around the country. Details of the assignments were not clear as of Sunday, despite Trump declaring that the airport deployments would occur on Monday. Tom Homan, the White House’s border czar, told CNNon Sunday that he was “working on the plan” and would come up with one soon.

Several current and former TSA officials told Government Executive that ICE personnel will be limited in what they can accomplish at airports, as they will not have the requisite training to check identification, examine luggage x-rays or provide other key security services. TSA employees go through classroom and on-the-job training before they can staff those roles, the officials said.

“It serves no practical use,” said one former official with decades of federal experience who declined to be named out of fear of professional reprisal. “It’s a political, publicity action, not a practical solution.”

Homan suggested ICE employees could staff the areas where travelers exit their terminals, though former officials noted many airports already use non-TSA personnel for those areas.

A second former senior TSA official added there are almost no functions ICE staff would be capable of offering.

“They can basically provide little help,” the former senior employee said.

The Iran War is a misguided, mismanaged mess. This is from the AP. “Hormuz strategy raises questions about US war preparation.”  The headlines on the war today are as scattered as Orange Caligula’s thought process.  The analysis is by Collin Binkley.

At war with Iran, President Donald Trump is cycling through an increasingly desperate list of options as he searches for a solution to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. He has jumped from calls to secure the waterway through diplomatic means to lifting sanctions and now escalating to a direct threat against civilian infrastructure in the Islamic Republic.

Trump and his allies insist they were always prepared for Iran to block the strait, yet the Republican president’s erratic strategy has fueled criticism that he is grasping for answers after going to war without a clear exit plan. On Saturday came his latest attempt, via an ultimatum to Iran: Open the strait within 48 hours or the United States will “obliterate” the country’s power plants.

Trump’s aides defended the threat as a hard-edged tactic to press Iran into submission. Opponents framed it as the failure of a president who miscalculated what it would take to get out of a geopolitical mire.

“Trump has no plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, so he is threatening to attack Iran’s civil power plants,” said Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass, adding: “This would be a war crime.”

“He’s lost control of the war and he is panicking,” said Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., responding to Trump’s post.

Over the course of about a week, Trump has repeatedly shifted his approach on the crucial waterway for global oil and gas transport. There is growing urgency for Trump as soaring oil prices rattle global markets and pinch American consumers months before pivotal midterm elections.

As mentioned before, the cost of this war will be devastating to the Global and U.S. economies. This is from The Economist. “Even the best-case scenario for energy markets is disastrous. Whatever happens, high prices will outlive the Iran war.”

THE THIRD Gulf war is now in its fourth week. Every day that Iranian strikes on ships keep the Strait of Hormuz shut, around a fifth of the world’s output of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) remains stranded. Every day, therefore, traders update how much supply is lost for the year. As their estimates rise, so do energy prices. Brent crude, at around $100 a barrel, is 40% dearer than before hostilities began. Gas prices in Europe are up by 70%.

The reason they are not much higher is that investors expect flows to resume soon. On March 23rd Donald Trump postponed a threat to strike Iran’s power plants unless Hormuz reopens, saying he had had “productive conversations [with Iran] regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East”. Financial bets that prices will fall (“put” options) outnumber those expecting a rise (“call” options) for July deliveries and onwards (see chart 1). Account for transport lags, in other words, and investors expect normality by May.

To assess those expectations, The Economist calculated how long normalisation would take if the war ended today. Even if Mr Trump’s talks succeed and the strait reopens in a few days, a big “if”, global oil and gas markets would remain undersupplied for months, hurting the world economy.

For energy markets to right themselves once Hormuz reopens, three things need to happen. First, Gulf producers must restore output to pre-war levels. Second, ships must ferry that output to refiners abroad. And third, those refiners must process it into usable fuel. Each stage of this industrial relay takes time.

The latest situation is that planned attacks on power plants are being postponed with the usual TACO maneuver. This is reported by The Bulwark‘s William Kristol. “The Least Worst Option. Better to TACO Than Not to TACO. Trump chickened out again . . . for now.”  Why is Orange Caligula’s crap always put on Truth Social instead of given the normal press treatment? Also, our attention to anything appears to be what he wants, always.

Early this morning, with about twelve hours left in his 48-hour ultimatum threatening Iran’s civilian power plants, President Trump announced:

Some may cry, “TACO!” And they’d be right. But just over three weeks into his ill-advised and incompetently managed war, Trump had reached a fork in the road from which neither path led to a happy place. He’s chosen the less bad option—for now.

The other, disastrous path would have been escalation. Trump seemed to be heading down that road Saturday afternoon, when he threatened to bomb Iran’s civilian power plants:

If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!

And he echoed this threat just yesterday, during a phone interview with Israel’s Channel 13: “You’ll find out what’s gonna happen. You’re gonna find out soon. It’s gonna be very good. Total decimation of Iran.”

Though Trump has now delayed this decision for another five days, it’s worth pondering what would have happened (and what could still happen) if he’d chosen escalation.

One assumes that the United States military would have refused to obey orders to commit a war crime like attempting the “total decimation” of a country.

But even if the military had gone ahead with some version of striking Iran’s civilian power plants, Iran would surely have responded by attacking similar targets in the Gulf, which they’ve shown they retain the capacity to do. The war would have widened and its economic effects would have worsened. And then we would have been faced with the possible introduction of ground troops to secure the Strait—which would have invited an extended conflict and an even more severe economic crisis.

This headline is from Lawrence Hurely reporting for NBC News. “Supreme Court rejects citizen journalist’s case against Texas officials who arrested her for reporting. Officials in Laredo dropped the charges against Priscilla Villarreal but she then filed a civil rights lawsuit, alleging they violated her free speech rights under the First Amendment.”

The Supreme Court on Monday rejected an attempt by a citizen journalist to revive her civil rights claim after she was arrested for soliciting information from a police officer.

At issue in the case brought by reporter Priscilla Villarreal was whether the officials in Laredo, Texas, could claim the legal defense of “qualified immunity,” which would protect them from being sued. The court’s refusal to hear the case means her claim that the officials had violated the Constitution’s First Amendment, which protects freedom of speech, cannot go forward.

Liberal Justice Sonia Sotomayor dissented, saying the court made a “grave error” in declining to take up the case.

“It should be obvious that this arrest violated the First Amendment,” she wrote.

In 2017, Villarreal, who has a large local following via her Facebook page, had texted a police officer to confirm the identities of a suicide victim and a car accident victim, which were not yet public. She then reported what she had learned.

Officials had Villarreal arrested for allegedly violating an obscure state law that prohibits the solicitation of information from a public employee in order to obtain a benefit. The law, if enforced widely, could apply to journalists who routinely seek information from the government and then disseminate it tosubscribers.

Fascism.  Are we there yet? Also, may I please have a day without extreme agita and anxiety? This year has quickly turned into one of mass torture. Also, please, I’d like to be able to afford groceries and things again. Can anyone make this go away? I’m way too old for this shit, and my grandchildren are way too young! Insert heavy sigh here. Back to my soothing morning cup of tea.

What’s on your reading and blogging list today?