Krugman Debunks Republican Fairy Tales
Posted: July 30, 2011 Filed under: Economy | Tags: Bush tax cuts, Paul Krugman, Ronald Reagan Fairy Tales 11 Comments
As we inch closer to purposeful default on our debt and spending policies destined to send us into recession, Nobel Prize winning Economist Paul Krugman comes out blasting with some nifty graphs. Stylized facts are an economist’s best friend. We continue to see this unending push of thoroughly trounced bad hypotheses spew out of Republicans and even the President. The vast degree of economic illiteracy in this country astounds me.
First, I’ll repeat one set of facts I mentioned in my post yesterday. Ronald Reagan was responsible for the largest tax increases in history and Barrack Obama was responsible for the largest tax cuts through his stimulus plan. This doesn’t even include his extension of the Dubya tax cuts. Discussion during TEFRA of 1982 resembles the discussion going on today. However, Reagan did tax increases. This particular ridiculousness is enough to make a data junkie scream. If you look at deficit numbers, former President Jimmy Carter was moving towards a budget balanced by the end of his term in office. Reagan blew government spending out of the water. However, Dubya remains the biggest spender of all since World War 2. If you want to blame the spending on any one, blame it on Reagan and George W, Bush. More on that in a bit.
Paul Krugman covers another Reagan Bedtime Story. He also points out that even conservative economists have started spewing the notion that Reagan was responsible for an era of “unprecedented growth”. This is also not true.
This shows what everyone was supposed to know: we had an awesome performance in the generation following the war (despite very high tax rates on the rich and a very strong union movement); we had a long period of poor productivity performance that spanned the Ford, Carter, Reagan, and Bush I administrations; we then had a revival during the Clinton administration, but even so not up to postwar standards. By the way, I don’t give Clinton credit for that revival; it was about learning to use technology. But in any case, there is no hint of a Reagan miracle in the data.
Now, back to stylized facts on federal spending. This is also from Krugman. There is this huge meme out there right now that some how, President Obama has gone on some kind of spending spree. This couldn’t be further from the truth. It appears that Rush Limbaugh is not only a big fat liar, but he is also incapable of doing the math on simple fractions. He is joined by nearly every Republican in the House today.
The fact is that federal spending rose from 19.6% of GDP in fiscal 2007 to 23.8% of GDP in fiscal 2010. So isn’t that a huge spending spree? Well, no.
First of all, the size of a ratio depends on the denominator as well as the numerator. GDP has fallen sharply relative to the economy’s potential; here’s the ratio of real GDP to the CBO’s estimate of potential GDP:
A 6 percent fall in GDP relative to trend, all by itself, would have raised the ratio of spending to GDP from 19.6 to 20.8, or about 30 percent of the actual rise.
That still leaves a rise in spending; but most of that is safety-net programs, which spend more in hard times because more people are in distress.
Beginning in 2005, the CBPP showed how George W. Bush’s excessive tax cuts played the largest part in federal deficits. Simply allowing these to expire last December would have gone farther in pushing a balanced budget than nearly anything done to date. In May of this year, they continued their analysis of how the Bush Policies were the ones driving the budget deficit.
Some lawmakers, pundits, and others continue to say that President George W. Bush’s policies did not drive the projected federal deficits of the coming decade — that, instead, it was the policies of President Obama and Congress in 2009 and 2010. But, the fact remains: the economic downturn, President Bush’s tax cuts and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq explain virtually the entire deficit over the next ten years (see Figure 1).
The deficit for fiscal year 2009 — which began more than three months before President Obama’s inauguration — was $1.4 trillion and, at 10 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the largest deficit relative to the economy since the end of World War II. At $1.3 trillion and nearly 9 percent of GDP, the deficit in 2010 was only slightly lower. If current policies remain in place, deficits will likely resemble those figures in 2011 and hover near $1 trillion a year for the next decade.
The events and policies that pushed deficits to these high levels in the
near term were, for the most part, not of President Obama’s making. If not for the Bush tax cuts, the deficit-financed wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the effects of the worst recession since the Great Depression (including the cost of policymakers’ actions to combat it), we would not be facing these huge deficits in the near term. By themselves, in fact, the Bush tax cuts and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan will account for almost half of the $20 trillion in debt that, under current policies, the nation will owe by 2019. The stimulus law and financial rescues will account for less than 10 percent of the debt at that time.
Other drives of the current deficit are extremely short-lived. These would be all the financial rescue spending delivered to financial institutions and the recession which brings in loss of revenues and increased expenditures. The other big expenditures are the two unfunded wars that having been running for over 10 years. These are the first wars that we have ever run that were not funded by tax increases.
However, these Republican Fairy Tales do not let the current President off the hook. He seems as hell bent as the Republicans in many ways to repeat their sins. He also seems woefully short on economic knowledge and incapable of listening to his economics advisers–now frustrated and gone–on what to do with the economy. The simplest way to shut down the deficit would be to eliminate preferential treatment of capital gains income and let the Bush tax cuts expire. I’d prefer they expire for folks over $200,000 a year, but letting them expire altogether is better than setting the stage for all these falsehoods spewing from Limbaugh and the like. Obama should’ve let the tax cuts expire when he had the chance. However, his ability to negotiate a position that proposes a Democratic alternative policy has never been present. People can’t figure out if he is just has the world’s worst negotiating skills or he wants what the Republicans want. My belief is that the outcome could matter less to him as long as he gets some ego strokes from it.
We have gotten to the point that complete insanity and adherence to fairy tales is putting our economy in serious jeopardy. We simply cannot afford to listen to the voices of ignorance any more. I cannot even believe we’re being held hostage now to a balanced budget amendment. That is one of the most flagrantly wrong policies any one could ever think about. I’m going to take that on this week since I can’t believe that zombie canard is back haunting the halls of Congress again.
We seriously need experienced economic stewardship of the economy right now. We have a tremendous jobs deficit that will only get worse if any of these seriously flawed budget initiatives pass. We couldn’t have gotten a worse group of leaders at a more crucial point in time. Their mistakes will hurt this country for a very long time.
The DC Disconnect
Posted: May 31, 2011 Filed under: Economy, Federal Budget and Budget deficit | Tags: Bush tax cuts, U.S. Economy 12 Comments
The disconnect between reality and beltway rhetoric has never been more obvious when it comes to the economy. The NYT editorial page has an op-ed up today– ‘The Numbers are Grim’–in which they call for more attention to the unemployment crisis. As I mentioned when these numbers came out, a decrease in domestic household consumption is a troublesome signal in an economy where nearly 68% of production usually goes to domestic consumption.
When consumers are constrained, so is hiring, because without customers, employers are hard pressed to retain workers or make new hires. A recent Labor Department report showed a greater-than-expected rise in the number of people claiming jobless benefits even as private-sector economic forecasts are being revised downward — both very bad omens for continued job growth.
Republican lawmakers have responded to renewed signs of weakness with a jobs plan that prescribes more of the same “fixes” that Republicans always recommend no matter the problem: mainly high-end tax cuts, deregulation, more domestic oil drilling and federal spending cuts.
The White House has offered sounder ideas, including job retraining, plans to boost educational achievement and tax increases to help cover needed spending. But its economic team is mainly focused on negotiations to raise the debt limit, presumably parrying Republican demands for deep spending cuts that could weaken the economy further while still reaching an agreement on the necessary increase.
The grim numbers tell an unavoidable truth: The economy is not growing nearly fast enough to dent unemployment. Unfortunately, no one in Washington is pushing policies to promote stronger growth now.
Even the Wall Street Journal recognizes the challenges our economy faces. Many corporate economists see similar indications of a permanent growth problem. This should not be happening. We know how to correct this. We have nearly 70 years of economy theory and empirical data that have provided a guide to every administration except the last two.
Manufacturing is cooling, the housing market is struggling and consumers are keeping a close eye on spending, meaning the U.S. economy might be on a slower path to full health than expected.
“It’s very hard to generate a rapid recovery when rapid recoveries are historically driven by housing and the consumer,” said Nigel Gault, an economist at IHS Global Insight. He expects an annualized, inflation-adjusted growth rate of less than 3% in coming quarters—better than the first-quarter’s 1.8% rate, but too slow to make a meaningful dent in unemployment.
A growing number of forecasters are downgrading their second-quarter growth predictions. JPMorgan Chase & Co. economists revised down their estimate to a 2.5% rate from 3%, while Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists cut theirs to 2% from 2.8%. Deutsche Bank cut its forecast to 3.2% from 3.7%.
Companies are similarly cautious. Applied Materials Inc., the largest maker of machines used in producing computer chips, said it expected growth in its semiconductor and solar markets to slow following one of its best quarters ever. Hewlett-Packard Co. cut its fiscal-year outlook amid weak computer sales and negative effects from the disaster in Japan. Clorox Co. offered a more guarded outlook for its household goods business as executives noted that higher prices may hurt sales.
As stated by the NYT, most Republicans put a plan forward that calls for “high-end tax cuts, deregulation, more domestic oil drilling and federal spending cuts”. This is exactly the opposite of what needs to be done. The mantra of ‘too high’ taxes strangling business which dampens unemployment is simply not true. It’s never been true. It’s a fallacy! Bruce Bartlett has done an excellent job–see the nifty graph above–in using facts to put down that meme. Not only are effective tax rates on corporations already exceedingly low, but tax revenues from wealthy individuals are so low that most of us probably have higher effective marginal tax rates. This has been the case now for nearly 7 years and for about that same time we’ve experienced some of the worst job creation and economic growth ever.
The economic importance of statutory tax rates is blown far out of proportion by Republicans looking for ways to make taxes look high when they are quite low. And they almost never note that the statutory tax rate applies only to the last dollar earned or that the effective tax rate is substantially lower even for the richest taxpayers and largest corporations because of tax exclusions, deductions, credits and the 15 percent top rate on dividends and capital gains.
The many adjustments to income permitted by the tax code, plus alternative tax rates on the largest sources of income of the wealthy, explain why the average federal income tax rate on the 400 richest people in America was 18.11 percent in 2008, according to the Internal Revenue Service, down from 26.38 percent when these data were first calculated in 1992. Among the top 400, 7.5 percent had an average tax rate of less than 10 percent, 25 percent paid between 10 and 15 percent, and 28 percent paid between 15 and 20 percent.
The truth of the matter is that federal taxes in the United States are very low. There is no reason to believe that reducing them further will do anything to raise growth or reduce unemployment.
Meanwhile, the complete disconnect between spending and cutting priorities in Congress and the White House and the American people grows. As mentioned by BostonBoomer this morning in a reference to a Paul Rosenberg peice at Alternet, Americans want none of what is being dished up in the beltway. It is true that the current spending path for the general budget, social security, and medicare are not sustainable at current levels. What is not true is that we need to accept the current path and Republican policy priorities as the solution. There is no evidence that anything they’ve suggested will remotely help our jobs and growth problem which would take care of much of the deficit problems. The rest could be solved by simply returning tax policy back to the Reagan or Clinton levels.
It’s obvious from the last set of economic numbers that the current problem stems from lack of consumer demand which is rooted in a lack of income, confidence, and wealth in the majority of US Households. People simply do not have the wherewithal to purchase homes or sustain household budgets. This is because we have an unacceptably high level of unemployment, we have let the pathway to home ownership completely collapse, and we’re allowing basic government services to collapse to fund unrealistically low tax rates for corporations and wealthy individuals. Don’t even get me started on funding never-ending wars. There is mounting evidence that these funds aren’t even staying in the country any more but are being used to fund jobs, investment, and growth in other places. This is unacceptable policy under our current economic situation. American treasury should not be used to chase profits abroad.
The President has gotten away with extending tax cuts for the wealthiest individuals. He appears ready to go to the table and accept draconian cuts to federal spending which will impact all levels of government provision of goods and services. This basically means that he has signed on to a prescription for slow economic growth. He undoubtedly does so with no worries about the upcoming election. The Republicans offer up potential candidates that have absolutely no grasp of reality or come with a facile lack of morality to deny it. Even George F. Will believes one of the front runners to be so incapable of holding office that the thought of giving the ability to launch nuclear weapons to some of the candidates bothers him. Is handing over the ability to tank our economy any less problematic?
This is beyond disheartening. It is evident that the plutocracy is doing everything it can to silence any one that could run a narrative contrary to these current fallacies. I don’t believe for one moment that Congressman Wiener’s hacker isn’t part of tearing down any one that appears to be stepping away from the abyss of Washington group think. Meanwhile, the media speak is about pushing the economy to the precipice by focusing on the debt ceiling. It’s looking like we’re being prepped for that. This will make the market demand extremely high rates of return for federal borrowing which will only increase our interest payments on the debt which are already a huge portion of the budget. How much sense does that make?
Early proposals for whittling down spending include a plan to drop federal agriculture subsidies and to require larger employee contributions to the pension system for non-military federal workers.
“Those talks, which actually we’ve been meeting for over three weeks now, they have been all positive. Everything is on the table,” House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) said Sunday on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “We’ve said, as Republicans, we’re not going to go for tax increases. I think the administration gets that. But we’ve also put everything on the table as far as cuts.”
Oh, and if you think the Republicans are all about small businesses and start-ups because they create jobs, check this nifty
graph out from MoJo. The Dubya years basically killed that phenomenon too so it wasn’t about lowering tax rates, was it?
As this chart from the BLS shows, the number of jobs created by new businesses peaked in 2000, began declining at the start of the Bush administration, and has been plummeting ever since …
So much for that Republican meme. Facts are stubborn things, aren’t they?
This problem is basically due to the inability to govern and make prudent decisions. They’d much rather pump out lies and continue on the same path to destruction. These people ran up tons of debt to fund wars for which they found no funds. This is all about the irresponsible Bush tax cuts that Congress and the Obama administration returned to law in December. The pain for these horrible decisions are about to be extracted on middle and working class Americans who have done absolutely nothing to bring on the recent economic problems and fiscal problems. There has been no bail out or special tax breaks for us. It should be obvious by now that the policies of the last five years have done nothing but improved the situation for the very rich and the very large corporation. Shame on all of those elected officials that go along with this. It is as if they are purposefully setting out to destroy our economy and our way of life. I have no idea why they hold so many of us in contempt but it is obvious that that they prefer the donor class to voters. They seem to want a repeat of the Great Depression. At this rate, that is exactly what they will have.
Breaking…House leaders pull tax cut bill from the floor
Posted: December 16, 2010 Filed under: Democratic Politics, U.S. Politics | Tags: Bush tax cuts, frustrated Democrats, House leadership 19 CommentsAs the debate over how the tax cut bill will be brought to the floor and voted on was wrapping up, House Democratic leaders abruptly PULLED the “rule” from the floor because they don’t know if they have enough votes to even bring the tax bill to the floor, according to a senior Democratic leadership aide.
Before the debate on the tax bill starts, the House first needs to pass the rule on how the debate and votes will go, with a simple majority vote. Because Republicans will all vote against the rule set by Democratic leaders – Pelosi and Democratic leaders need to pass the rule just with Democratic votes.
Apparently many Reps are still really unhappy with the bill, so we should all call, e-mail, or fax our reps and let them know how we feel.
Many liberals in the Democratic caucus are upset at the bill’s provision on estate taxes and want to amend the measure and send it back to the Senate. The problem is that Democrats would have to vote on the Senate-passed bill if they want to change the estate tax provision.
[….]
A deal is being worked out, according to DeFazio, that would allow liberals to offer an amendment that would change the estate-tax provision so that estates up to $7 million would be tax free for couples, with anything above that amount taxed at 45%.
That amendment also would include a plan by Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., to get rid of the 2% cut in payroll taxes in the bill, which some opponents believe would undermine Social Security. It would be replaced by a new infusion of the “Making Work Pay” tax credit of up to $400 for individuals and $800 for families that Obama included in last year’s massive economic stimulus package. Also, liberal Democrats want to include a $250 relief payment to seniors.
A little more detail from the Wall Street Journal:
A procedural motion setting rules for debate on the bill was scotched due to objections from Rep. Gene Taylor (D., Miss.) and other Democrats, lawmakers and aides said.
“There have been a number of issues raised. We need time to work it out,” said Rep. Jim McGovern (D., Mass.), after the procedural motion was pulled from the floor.
Mr. McGovern said he believes the vote will still happen at some point Thursday, after leaders have time to consult with Democratic lawmakers on the way forward. “It’s a bump, I think it’ll be taken care of,” said Mr. McGovern.
Democrats who objected to the procedural motion said they wanted a chance to vote to change estate-tax provisions in the Senate bill, without having to vote in support of the rest of the Senate bill’s provisions.
I’ll post updates as I learn more. I wish this meant a real uprising by liberal reps, but I hate to get my hopes up only to have them dashed once again.




near term were, for the most part, not of President Obama’s making. If not for the Bush tax cuts, the deficit-financed wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the effects of the worst recession since the Great Depression (including the cost of policymakers’ actions to combat it), we would not be facing these huge deficits in the near term. By themselves, in fact, the Bush tax cuts and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan will account for almost half of the $20 trillion in debt that, under current policies, the nation will owe by 2019. The stimulus law and financial rescues will account for less than 10 percent of the debt at that time.






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