Tuesday Reads: RIP Glen Frey and Martin Luther King Events

Winter landscape by Pieter De Hooch

Winter landscape by Pieter De Hooch

Good Morning!!

We lost another 1970s music legend yesterday. The Eagles’ Glen Frey is dead. The LA Times writes:

The Eagles’ Glenn Frey spun sun-baked SoCal ballads that will endure.

Few bands were better at distilling the vibe of Los Angeles in the 1970s than the Eagles, and as its singer and guitarist, Glenn Frey served as a sort of mellow ambassador of our city. Just as Liverpool is forever associated with the Beatles, Seattle claims Nirvana and Bruce Springsteen owns New Jersey, the Eagles embodied the bell-bottomed, feather-haired flair of Southern California.

Frey, who died Monday at age 67, co-wrote and sang some of the most commercially successful country rock ballads of the ’70s, including “Tequila Sunrise,” “Peaceful, Easy Feeling,” “Take It Easy” and “Lyin’ Eyes.”

Soft and twangy, his hits as co-founder of the Eagles defined the region like the vivid colors of orange crate art had during the city’s early boom years and as the Beach Boys had during the surf craze.

During the Eagles’ 2014 concert at the Forum, in fact, Frey compared the legacy of two uniquely Californian bands: “The Beach Boys were pioneers. The Eagles were settlers.” Which is to say, where the Beach Boys forged new sounds, the Eagles gathered up what was already there — country rock — and made it their home.

A youthful Glenn Frey

A youthful Glenn Frey

On Frey’s contributions to the group’s sound:

Frey’s best songs with the Eagles embodied that home, best known through the golden, sun-drenched silhouettes of palm trees on the cover of its classic album “Hotel California.” The dominant shade of the record sleeve is what Frey so brilliantly conveyed as “another tequila sunrise,” a muted orange, the color of the last wash of daylight or dawn’s first breath.

Where the Beach Boys reveled in a daytime spent surfing and having fun with the girls, the Eagles worked far later into the night. Frey co-wrote and sang songs about mysterious women, the loneliness of the outsider, unrequited desire and dangerous reflexes.

He did so, though, minus any hint of distortion or aggression. In “Peaceful, Easy Feeling,” Frey didn’t want to get funky or dirty. Rather, he spun visions of the simple pleasures in his adopted Southern California home as he sang of wanting to “sleep with you in the desert tonight/ With a billion stars all around.”

Take it easy corner in Winslow, Arizona

Take it easy corner in Winslow, Arizona

From the Washington Post: Glenn Frey and the mystery of the ‘Take It Easy’ corner in Winslow, Ariz.

[E]ach year thousands of people, usually on the way to somewhere else, make a stop in Winslow, Ariz.,about 60 miles easy of Flagstaff, thanks to Jackson Browne and Glenn Frey, whose death was reported Monday. And, thanks to the Eagles’ classic “Take It Easy,” they go to a special corner, where Old Highway 66 meets North Kinsley Avenue, and just stand, which is exactly what you’re supposed to do.

It’s called “Standin’ on the Corner Park.” There’s not much there — a statue of a guy holding a guitar and a red flatbed Ford at the curb. They say if you look hard enough, you’ll see the girl from the song, too. In fact, they’ve made sure of it.

Well, I’m a standing on a corner
in Winslow, Arizona, 
and such a fine sight to see. 
It’s a girl, my Lord, in a flatbed Ford
slowin’ down to take a look at me. 
Come on, baby, don’t say maybe. 
I gotta know if your sweet love is
gonna save me. 
We may lose and we may win
though we will never be here again. 
So open up, I’m climbin’ in,
so take it easy.

The 1972 song “Take it Easy” preceded the park by three decades, and you have to wonder why it took Winslow so long. Perhaps it’s because the city didn’t need it in 1972, when Old 66 went through the heart of town, only to be cruelly bypassed in 1979 when Interstate 40 cut it off — “bleeding Winslow dry,” as Kevin Baxter wrote in the Los Angeles Times a year ago.

Read much more at the link.

A couple more good links on Frey:

Washington Post: How Glenn Frey and the Eagles outlasted everyone who loved to hate them.

Rolling Stone: Glenn Frey: The Voice That Launched a Million Tequila Sunrises.

Black Lives Matter protesters on the Bay Bridge in San Francisco

Black Lives Matter protesters on the Bay Bridge in San Francisco

Yesterday on the Martin Luther King’s birthday holiday, Black Lives Matter protesters were on the streets in a number of cities. The most dramatic demonstration took place in San Francisco, where activists managed to shut down the Bay Bridge. CBS SF Bay Area reports:

Protesters announced just before 4 p.m. they had shut down Bay Bridge traffic heading into San Francisco. They posted photos of several protesters chained to cars stopped across the bridge.

Members of protest groups Black Seed and the Black Queer Liberation Collective took responsibility for the protest in a statement, citing recent police shootings.

“We are here to move towards an increase in the health and wellbeing of all Black people in Oakland & San Francisco,” the groups wrote in a statement.

They were demanding divestment of city funds in policing, investment in affordable housing, the resignation of Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf, the termination of San Francisco police Chief Greg Suhr and Oakland police Chief Sean Whent and the termination of police officers involved in several recent shootings.

Twenty-five protesters were arrested. Another Black Lives Matter group “commandeered” a ceremony in Denver. 

In a related story, the Boston Police Department released information on “nearly 150,000 civilian encounters,” and guess which category of people got stopped most often? The Boston Globe reports:

The American Civil Liberties Union of Massachusetts had been asking for the data since September 2014 and sued for it last summer….

More than half of those stopped—56 percent—were black males. White males were the next most-stopped group, at 17 percent, followed by Hispanic males at 12 percent.

In their own analysis, Boston police said “nearly 59 percent of the FIO subjects were black.” But about 4.3 percent of the total reports don’t state a race, or the officer checked “unknown.” Taking out those blanks or unknowns, the actual percentage of black people stopped among those with a known race is 61.2 percent.

Boston’s population is about 25 percent black. More than 87 percent of everyone stopped had a criminal record.

The number one reason why someone was stopped? “Investigate, person.” More than 60 percent of the stops were made for this vague reason. Behind it, at 14 percent, was “violating auto laws,” like driving without a license.

Boston police clash with protesters at City Hall Plaza in December 2014

Boston police clash with protesters at City Hall Plaza in December 2014

This is interesting too:

One officer entered 2,904 reports, or nearly two out of every 100. Seventeen other officers had more than 1,000 FIO reports. Most of those officers are members of the Youth Violence Strike Force, a unit that is not on regular patrol but is tasked with preventing violence, which includes gang activity.

Boston police said that about 30 percent of the total reports were from the Youth Violence Strike Force. Of the 50 officers who generated the most number of reports, including the officer who had the highest number, 64 percent were Youth Violence Strike Force officers.

It sounds like they might need to take a look at the one officer who was so prolific in stopping citizens.

Hillary Clinton appeared at a Martin Luther King Day ceremony in Charleston, South Carolina yesterday. HuffPo:

Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton praised South Carolina for removing the Confederate flag from the statehouse grounds in Columbia as roughly 1,000 gathered to honor Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.’s legacy.

Monday’s “King Day at the Dome” celebration marked the first time the state has officially honored Martin Luther King Jr. Day without the racist symbol flying above the crowd. Civil rights activists had previously used the holiday to call for the flag’s removal.

“How wonderful it is to be here together without the Confederate flag overhead,” Clinton said. “That flag always belonged in a museum, not at the statehouse.”

Democratic U.S. presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks during 'King Day at the Dome 2016' ceremonies in front of the South Carolina State House in Columbia, South Carolina, Monday. | REUTERS

Democratic U.S. presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks during ‘King Day at the Dome 2016’ ceremonies in front of the South Carolina State House in Columbia, South Carolina, Monday. | REUTERS

Hillary called attention to the roles of Gov. Nikki Haley and protester Bree Newsome in the decision to remove the Confederate flag.

Clinton praised Haley and the state legislature for taking swift action on the flag, but also credited activist Bree Newsome for taking the matter into her own hands and “shimmying up that flagpole.”

“Every year, you’ve gathered right here and said that that symbol of division and racism went against everything Dr. King stood for,” Clinton continued. “We couldn’t celebrate him and the Confederacy, we had to choose. And South Carolina finally made the right choice.”

That was the only article I could find on Hillary’s speech, but Bernie Sanders got quite a bit of media coverage for his appearance in Alabama. AP via ABC News: Bernie Sanders Courts Voters in Alabama on King Day.

With polls showing him running well in Iowa and New Hampshire, presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders took aim at what might be unusual territory for a self-described democratic socialist: the Deep South.

Yet a crowd of more than 5,000 packed into Boutwell Auditorium in downtown Birmingham, Alabama, Monday night to hear the Vermont senator, while nearly 1,000 milled outside in freezing temperatures.

“There must be some mistake, I heard Alabama was a conservative state,” Sanders said to an enthusiastic welcome.

Sanders said his message of raising the minimum wage, free college tuition and paid family medical leave cuts across regional lines but acknowledged that the work to get that message across was harder in a state like Alabama.

“We’ve got to go out to our white, working-class friends. We’ve got to go out to our brothers and sisters and say, ‘Stop voting against your own self-interests,'” Sanders said.

“Our brothers and sisters?” I guess that means black people. I wonder how many “brothers and sisters” were in the crowd. The article doesn’t say. The story says Sanders mentioned Dr. King and emphasized King’s activism on economic issues.

Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump gestures during a speech at Liberty University in Lynchburg, Va., Monday, Jan. 18, 2016. (AP Photo/Steve Helber)

Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump gestures during a speech at Liberty University in Lynchburg, Va., Monday, Jan. 18, 2016. (AP Photo/Steve Helber)

Donald Trump chose to give a speech at Liberty University on Martin Luther King Day, and he made some biblical boo boos while speaking to the packed “Christian” audience (Liberty U. students are required to attend appearances by guest speakers). Most disconcerting for the religious nuts was that he referred to “2 Corinthians” instead of the correct usage “second Corinthians.” Here’s Molly Ball at The Atlantic:

The Religious Right’s Donald Trump Dilemma.

There were many unbelievable moments over the course of Donald Trump’s speech on Monday at Liberty University, the evangelical college founded by the late Jerry Falwell.

There was his citation of the Bible: “Two Corinthians 3-17, that’s the whole ball game. … Is that the one? Is that the one you like? I think that’s the one you like.”

There was the part where he ranked his favorite books, calling The Art of the Deal“a deep, deep second to the Bible. The Bible is the best. The Bible blows it away.”

There was his pledge to win the war on Christmas: “If I’m president, you’re going to see ‘Merry Christmas’ in department stores, believe me.”

And there was a delightful new twist on his oft-repeated claim that Americans will be overwhelmed with winning: “If I’m president, you’ll say, ‘Please, Mr. President, we’re winning too much. I can’t stand it. Can’t we have a loss?’ And I’ll say, ‘No, we’re going to keep winning.’”

Ball writes that Trump is creating division in the Evangelical community.

But the most breathtaking part of Trump’s appearance may have come before he spoke. It was his introduction by Jerry Falwell Jr., the school’s president and son of its founder, who praised the thrice-married, socially liberal tycoon at great length.

Falwell lauded Trump’s generosity and worldly success; he called him “a breath of fresh air.” He compared Trump to his father and to Martin Luther King Jr., who also “spoke the truth, no matter how unpopular.” Trump, he said, “cannot be bought—he is not a puppet on a string like many other candidates.” Though Falwell’s comments were, he said, not an endorsement, he repeatedly imagined a Trump presidency as a boon to America. “In my opinion,” he said, “Donald Trump lives a life of loving and helping others, as Jesus taught in the great commandment.”Many evangelical leaders, however, do not share Falwell’s affection. As Trump was speaking, Russell Moore, the Southern Baptist leader, issued a stream of disapproving tweets: “Trading in the gospel of Jesus Christ for political power is not liberty but slavery,” Moore wrote. He added: “This would be hilarious if it weren’t so counter to the mission of the gospel of Jesus Christ.”

Read the rest at the link.

What else is happening? Please post your thoughts and links in the comment thread and have a great Tuesday!


Thursday Reads

Henri Matisse: Winter Landscape on the Banks of the Seine

Henri Matisse: Winter Landscape on the Banks of the Seine

Good Morning!!

There’s a Republican debate tonight on the Fox Business Channel. We’ll have a live blog as usual. The kid’s table section will start at 6PM and the main event will be at 9PM. I don’t know why they don’t just let all the candidates on the main stage. Actually, I don’t know why the also rans don’t just drop out. Anyway, there could be some fireworks tonight between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. We’ll find out later tonight.

Time Magazine: The Stage Is Getting Smaller at GOP Debates.

The stage is set for Thursday night’s debate in Charleston, South Carolina, and only seven podiums remain for the top-tier candidates.

With the lead-off nominating contests starting in less than a month, it’s fast becoming clear which candidates have a credible shot at winning the Republicans’ presidential nomination and, perhaps more tellingly, which do not.

Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and former tech executive07 Carly Fiorina were bumped from the primetime lineup, and Paul says he’s skipping the earlier undercard debate. Fiorina will face former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, two darlings of Christian conservatives.

Remaining on the main stage are frontrunner Donald Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

With Iowa having the first nominating contests on Feb. 1, the dynamics of the race are incredibly fluid and the candidates’ attacks are getting sharper….

At this moment in the campaign, the biggest question for Republicans is what happens in Iowa. Will the thrice-married Trump keep his advantage in a state ripe with Evangelicals, or will Cruz be able to claim the top spot? Trump’s unconventional campaign is betting his reality star approach can sustain him against Cruz, who has done three times as many events as Trump. If Trump falters in Iowa, can he catch himself in New Hampshire, or will he fade? And will any of it matter for his legions of supporters?

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Trump may have “legions of supporters” in Iowa, but will they show up to caucus for him? The New York Times has a really good story today about Trump’s dysfunctional ground game in the state.

Donald Trump’s Iowa Ground Game Seems to Be Missing a Coach.

Mr. Trump, who Iowa polls show is neck-and-neck with Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, may well win the caucuses, now less than three weeks away. But if he does, it will probably be in spite of his organizing team, which after months of scattershot efforts led by a paid staff of more than a dozen people, still seems amateurish and halting, committing basic organizing errors….

Compared with the well-oiled machines of other leading candidates in both parties, particularly that of the Cruz campaign, the Trump ground game in Iowa seems partly an afterthought, as if Mr. Trump’s strategy is to leverage his charisma — the appeal that draws thousands to his rallies — to motivate voters.

But the challenge in Iowa is that historically, caucusgoers — only a sliver of registered voters — have had to be coaxed out by a field team, rather than be counted on to show up and vote on their own. This is especially true of the demographic that supports Mr. Trump: younger voters and others with a low propensity to turn out.

As temperatures plunged to single digits over the weekend, canvassers for Hillary Clinton posted photographs of themselves on social media going door to door in the snow. Meanwhile, Mr. Trump’s volunteers in Davenport, a city where the campaign appears to be better organized than elsewhere, decided it was too cold to go out.

Seven volunteers worked the phones at the Iowa headquarters of Senator Marco Rubio of Florida in a Des Moines suburb one night last week. At the state headquarters of Mr. Cruz, there were 24 volunteers in a room beneath a sign proclaiming a daily goal of making 6,000 calls. The Trump state headquarters in West Des Moines were largely deserted.

Wow. If Trump’s organization is that bad in Iowa, what is he doing in later voting states? One fairly serious organizer the Times talked to is a 9/11 conspiracy theorist. Another said he hadn’t yet gotten any fliers from the campaign detailing Trump’s positions on issues, and besides he didn’t plan to make any calls until the last week before the caucuses. At rallies some Trump supporters say they will caucus for him, but most have never done it before and have no idea what it involves.

TedCruzSnake

Yesterday the NYT reported that Ted Cruz had failed to report some large loans he used to help finance his campaign for the Senate in 2012, including one from Goldman Sachs, where Cruz’s wife Heidi was a “managing director” at the time. Cruz thinks it’s no big deal.

The Week: Ted Cruz shrugs off report that he got undisclosed Goldman Sachs loan for Senate campaign.

Confronted with the report late Wednesday, Cruz insisted that he had disclosed the margin loans, but “if it was the case that they were not filed exactly as the FEC requires, then we’ll amend the filing.” …. You can read more about the loans at The New York Times.

Yesterday the Sanders campaign announced that they probably wouldn’t be releasing details about the costs of their health care plan before the Iowa caucuses–after Sander himself had long pledged to do so. The Clinton campaign was high critical, and of course the dudebros were upset that anyone would say anything bad about poor Bernie.

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The Des Moines Register: Sanders may not release health plan costs by caucus day (emphasis added).

News that U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders may not release tax details of his universal health care plan before Iowans go to caucus on Feb. 1 sparked a heated back-and-forth between his campaign and that of his chief rival, Hillary Clinton.

As part of his populist campaign focused on working and middle-class Americans, Sanders is calling for a “Medicare-for-all” national health insurance program that would effectively negate the role of private insurers. While he had pledged to release full tax plans before Iowans vote, his national campaign manager on Wednesday told CNN that the specific tax implications of the health care plan may not be released this month.

Hillary Clinton’s campaign wasted no time in pouncing on the announcement, slamming Sanders on Wednesday in a press call on the issue.

“I think one can only draw the conclusion that the Sanders campaign does not want to outline what would amount to a massive across the board tax increase,” said Jake Sullivan, senior policy adviser for Hillary for America. “They want to essentially create a circumstance in which they try to lead voters to believe they can implement single-payer health care at no burden to anyone and everyone would be better off.”

The Sanders campaign shook off the criticism. Sanders’ Iowa Director Robert Becker accused Clinton of a “Republican-style attack” against universal health care, which he called a “core Democratic Party value.” In a statement, Becker said the former secretary of state “has gone into full panic mode over the past few days” as polls are tightening in Iowa and New Hampshire.

“Let’s be clear: Bernie Sanders will put forth details for universal coverage when he is ready and not because Hillary Clinton suddenly realized she is losing,” Becker said.

Very nice. I’ve lost a most of my respect for Sanders at this point, to a large extent because of the people he has working for him.

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General Electric announced yesterday that it is moving its headquarters to Boston. From the Wall Street Journal:

General Electric Co. will relocate its headquarters from leafy suburban Connecticut to Boston’s busy waterfront, ending a fierce competition among states to lure one of the nation’s largest companies.

Officials in Massachusetts said Wednesday they had offered incentives worth up to $145 million to the conglomerate. GE, which since 1974 has been based in Fairfield, Conn., promised to bring about 800 jobs to Boston.

The move comes amid a broader effort by GE to cut corporate costs and streamline operations for what it portrays as a new industrial era that will revolve around software innovation as much as bended metal—one that will make it a priority to attract the talented workers who prefer to live and work in cities.

More interesting reads to check out:

FiveThirtyEight is on the ground in Iowa right now, and they have been live blogging their observations. I’ve been finding it fascinating.

The Boston Globe: The expected ripple effect of GE’s move to Boston.

Vox: My husband raped two women — and I had to answer for his crimes.

CBS News: $1.6B Powerball jackpot: 3 winning tickets sold.

Washington Post: Obama to highlight Louisiana decision to expand Medicaid.

Newsweek via Raw Story: Ted Cruz’s birther problem grows as more constitutional law scholars say he can’t be president.

What else is happening? Let us know in the comment thread and have a great Thursday!

 

 


Tuesday Reads: State of the Union and Campaign News

kandinsky

Good Morning!!

Tonight at 9:00 President Obama will give his final State of the Union Address. We’ll have a live blog to discuss what he says. Here’s what ABC News thinks we should expect from tonight’s speech.

Experts predict that rather than trying to cajole a Republican-controlled Congress to cooperate with him in 2016, the president will be asking viewers around the country to remember his legacy items and consider the future in an attempt to set the tone for the next (he hopes, Democratic) president.

“It’s not going to be a laundry list of things on the agenda” like most State of the Union addresses, said Norm Ornstein, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.

That’s how the president himself framed it in a video message sent to supporters Kandinsky3we’ve made, not just what I want to get done in the year ahead, but what we all need to do together in the years to come,” he said.

Read more projections about the speech at the link.

The LA Times says Obama’s speech will be about “staying relevant.”

Speaking to Democratic donors recently in his hometown of Chicago, President Obama took some delight in recalling how long it had been since someone reminded him he was a “lame duck” president.

“We’ve been flapping our wings a lot,” he said, noting a Pacific Rim trade agreement, a deal to rein in Iran’s nuclear program, positive economic trends and new actions on climate change.

In that spirit, White House officials have said for weeks that Obama’s final State of the Union address Tuesday will be a “non-traditional speech.” That’s a well-worn line from second-term administrations entering their final year as they try to stay relevant in the national debate.

The relatively early date for the president’s annual address to Congress is indicative of the need to avoid being overshadowed by the campaign to succeed Obama, with the Iowa caucuses less than three weeks away. But Obama and his team nonetheless see a rare opportunity for the president to not just be part of the 2016 debate, but to set its terms.

“This one moment where the country sort of acknowledges that the president gets an hour to assess the condition of the country and to offer up a prescription for confronting the challenges and capitalizing on the opportunities is as important as ever,” White House press secretary Josh Earnest said Monday.

The article goes on to discuss how the White House will use social media, YouTube, and other digital methods to engage the home audience.

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This week we’re also going to have two debates–a GOP debate on Thursday and a Democratic one on Sunday. Of course we’ll have live blogs each both nights. On the Republican side, Rand Paul and Carly Fiorina have been excluded from the main stage.

We’re approaching the dates of the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, so things are heating up on the campaign trail. Last night ABC News and Univision held a Democratic Forum and the three Democratic Candidates were there.

The annual Black and Brown Forum, hosted by Fusion, a joint venture between ABC News andUnivision, touched on issues ranging from the Obama administration’s deportation policy to sexuality in America and the White House as “public housing.” ….

During a rapid-fire question round, Sanders was asked if it would be “off-brand” for a DemocraticSocialistto live “in a mansion like the White House?” The Vermont Senator, who lives modestly on the campaign trail and jokes about how few suits he owns, outwitted the questioner, drawing laughs as he retorted: “I would think of it more like public housing.” ….

With new polls showing them neck-and-neck in Iowa, Clinton and Sanders both agreed the race was up in the air. “Anyone can win!” Clinton said. “Who would have thought Donald Trump would be leading in national polls? I mean for those who ever thought about running for president, take heart.”

Hillary got in a couple more good digs at Trump:

Kandinsky_Vasily-ZZZ-Landscape

ABC News: Hillary Clinton Says She Got Donald Trump ‘Nothing’ For His Wedding.

During the Fusion network’s Brown & Black Democratic forum on Monday night in Des Moines, Clinton was asked what she got the Republican frontrunner when she attended his 2005 wedding to model Melania Knauss.

“Nothing, nothing,” she said.

“He was basically a Democrat before he was a Republican,” Clinton explained. “He was, you know, somebody we all knew in New York, and he was supportive of Democrats and supportive of a lot of causes I care about and people I knew cared about.”

“Now he seems to have taken another road,” she added.

Hahahahahahahahahaha!!

Bernie Sanders has been going around claiming that he is the most electable Democratic candidate. At the Washington Post, Philip Bump points out some points out some problems with that argument.

On Sunday, Bernie Sanders’s campaign put out a press release titled, “Electability Matters.”

“A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll,” it read, “found that Sanders does better than Clinton against the leading Republican candidates by an average of 6 points in Iowa and a stunning 21 points in New Hampshire. Specifically, the poll put Sanders 13 points ahead of Republican frontrunner Donald Trump here in Iowa.”

A fine point was put on it: “Bernie’s substantial advantage over Republicans in the general election versus Secretary Clinton is another important reason that Democratic primary voters should choose him as our nominee,” the campaign’s Jeff Weaver wrote….

The only problem is that the argument isn’t a great one.

We can start with those numbers from Iowa and New Hampshire. When it comes to state match-ups, the extent to which the Democrat wins New Hampshire — a state that’s gone for the Democrats in five of the last six elections and which is worth less than 1 percent of the country’s electoral votes — doesn’t amount to a whole lot. Iowa is slightly different, with a few more electoral votes and somewhat closer recent elections (although still a tilt toward the Dems). Sanders does do better against the leading Republicans in those states, but Clinton still beats Trump in both.

Iowa and New Hampshire both have a distinction which has been to Sanders’s benefit in the primaries there, too: They’re very white. Clinton has much more support among non-white voters than Sanders, which is why she’s up big in South Carolina. Once we start talking about states like Missouri or Georgia, we can expect the calculus to shift.

Read much more at the WaPo link.

I’m going to have to add more links in the comment thread, because WordPress is behaving badly this morning. What stories are you following today? See you down below, and have a great Tuesday!


Extra Lazy Saturday Reads

topiary elephants

Good Afternoon!!

There’s quite a bit of news today for a weekend, I have a cold, and I’m very late; so this is going to be a link dump post. There’s so much to talk about, I hardly know where to begin.

Even though national polls are essentially meaningless at this point, this one is still disturbing.

AP via US News: Trump Could Win It All. A new survey shows a sizable number of Democrats ready to defect from Hillary Clinton to Donald Trump.

So if Donald Trump proved the political universe wrong and won the Republican presidential nomination, he would be creamed by Hillary Clinton, correct?

A new survey of likely voters might at least raise momentary dyspepsia for Democrats since it suggests why it wouldn’t be a cakewalk.

The survey by Washington-based Mercury Analytics is a combination online questionnaire and “dial-test” of Trump’s first big campaign ad among 916 self-proclaimed “likely voters” (this video shows the ad and the dial test results). It took place primarily Wednesday and Thursday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

Nearly 20 percent of likely Democratic voters say they’d cross sides and vote for Trump, while a small number, or 14 percent, of Republicans claim they’d vote for Clinton. When those groups were further broken down, a far higher percentage of the crossover Democrats contend they are “100 percent sure” of switching than the Republicans.

Read about the survey at the link. Fortunately, that isn’t how we elect presidents. We do it state by state, and you have to actually leave the house and vote at your local polling place.

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For some rational discussion of the Trump phenomenon, here’s Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight: Three Theories Of Donald Trump’s Rise. The three possible explanations are:

Theory 1: Trump’s support reflects a Republican populist revolt.In a nutshell: Trump is extremely popular among Republican voters, who are attracted to his combination of populism, nativism and anti-elite resentment….

Theory 2: Trump’s support reflects a Republican Party power vacuum. In a nutshell: Party elites and insiders usually have a tremendous amount of influence on the identity of the nominee, with Republican voters eventually falling in line behind one of their preferred choices. The fact that Trump is leading now reflects a lack of consensus among those party elites. However, these elites will rally behind whichever establishment-approved choice performs best in Iowa and New Hampshire, elevating that candidate to the frontrunner’s position….

Theory 3: Trump’s support reflects a media bubble. In a nutshell: Trump’s standing in the polls substantially reflects the disproportionate amount of media coverage he’s receiving; it’s not that remarkable for a candidate to poll at 35 percent when he’s recently been getting 70 percent of the media coverage of the Republican race. That makes Trump’s position vulnerable if media coverage eventually evens out, or as the election approaches in each state as voters learn more about the candidates on their own and less through the lens of the national media.

Read the detailed discussion at the link.

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Here’s a must-read on a dramatic change in the way the media as reacted to Trump’s outrageous lies and extreme proposals: “Influential news outlets have set aside traditional notions of balance…” by Jay Rosen. Be sure to check it out.

Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium is convinced that Trump can win the Republican nomination, based on the current state of Republican polls.

Since actual election results will deviate from current polls by many points, parametric approaches (i.e. calculating means, medians, standard deviations, regressions, and so on) may be of limited use. Let me take a look at the data to ask a simpler question: what does current polling rank predict about the nominee?

Although Donald Trump’s support might be higher or lower than the numbers indicate, nobody seriously questions the observation that he is in first place nationally. But what does that predict for the nomination?

Wang looks at past election cycles and shows that by this time the man who became the GOP nominee was in first or second place in most polls. Read more at the link.

topiary elephants2

Ted Cruz is also in the news–for the latest birther controversy and an incredibly stupid remark about his children and Hillary Clinton.

From TPM: Ted Cruz’s Mother Was On Official List Of Canadian Citizens Eligible To Vote.

TPM shared an electronic copy of the document with Sen. Cruz’s office when it originally obtained the document in 2013. Cruz’s then-communications director, Sean Rushton, emphasized that the document is not a record of people who actually voted in any election. He further pointed out that the document itself provides notice that “applications for corrections,” “deletions from,” and “additions to” the list may have been necessary.

“At least one other error is evident on its face: the name of Sen. Cruz’s father is misspelled,” Rushton told TPM in his 2013 statement. “Regardless, Mrs. Cruz has never been a Canadian citizen, and she has never voted in any Canadian election.”

TPM eventually decided not to publish an article based on the document at the time, in part because Cruz was not yet a candidate for president. TPM decided to revisit the story earlier this week as rival Donald Trump renewed his skepticism about Cruz’s eligibility, moving the story to the center of the campaign, and was prepared to publish this evening….

Jason Johnson, Cruz’s chief campaign strategist, said in the statement that candidate’s mother “was never a citizen of Canada.” He added that she could not have been a Canadian citizen at the time her son was born because of residency requirements. Eleanor Cruz was born in Delaware, while her ex-husband, Rafael Cruz, was born in Cuba, obtained Canadian citizenship while living in Calgary and became a naturalized U.S. citizen in the mid-2000s.

The document in question is a voter list of individuals who lived in the southern district of the city of Calgary, were over the age of 18 and were Canadian citizens, thus eligible to vote.

It still sounds like a non-issue to me, but read much more about it at TPM if you’re interested.

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Now for Cruz’s creepy remark about Hillary Clinton.

NBC News: Cruz Suggests Voters Give Clinton ‘Spanking’ Over Benghazi.

Ted Cruz suggested on Friday that Hillary Clinton should be given a “spanking” by voters to hold her accountable for the Benghazi attack in 2011 when she served as secretary of state.

Cruz compared it to how he punishes one of his daughters for lying.

“In my house, if my daughter, Catherine, the 5-year-old, says something that she knows to be false, she gets a spanking,” Cruz told the attendees at a crowded coffee shop here.

He continued, “Well, in America, the voters have a way of administering a spanking.”

A supporter in the crowd prompted Cruz’s response after asking how, as president, he would hold individuals accountable for the attack that killed four Americans, including the U.S. ambassador to Libya.

I wonder if Cruz would suggest “spanking” a man running for the presidency? So now we know that Ted Cruz is a virulent sexist (not really a surprise) and that he believes in spanking very young children. In my opinion, that is child abuse.

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Ben Carson, who is supposedly still running for president also did something awful to a child yesterday. Vanity Fair reports: Ben Carson Humiliated a Fifth Grader in Public.

Carson reportedly asked a group of fifth graders at a campaign rally Thursday in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, to identify the laggard among them. “Who’s the worst student?” he asked, according to The Des Moines Register. The kids, of course, being kids and not knowing better than say, someone gunning to be the leader of the free world, quickly pointed to one student….

Carson’s question wasn’t intended to humiliate and scar a child for life (though he now has someone to write about for his college-admissions essay). The onetime G.O.P. front-runner was simply trying to make a point about how he himself was a “horrible student” who would easily have been the one chosen as the worst in the class if some political candidate had the horrible idea to single him out in public. It was meant to be an inspirational story, that even 10-year-olds thought of as the dumbest in class can rise to be a renowned neurosurgeon and public figure who could then embarrass and put down children.

He tried to make good backstage, according to the Register, patting the boy on the back and forcing a copy of his book on him. Surely, that made up for it.

Ugh.

More interesting reads:

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CNN: Silently protesting Muslim woman ejected from Trump rally.

I really liked this one. Washington Post: Mom: What do I expect from my children’s elementary school? Certainly not this.

Washington Post: Man in alleged plot to kidnap Obama’s dog arrested on weapons charge.

Classic Esquire: The Candidate We Love to Hate and Hate to Love (spoiler: it’s Hillary, but it’s actually quite positive).

Barack Obama’s op-ed in the New York Times: Guns Are Our Shared Responsibility. (Interesting note: Obama writes that he will not support any candidate who votes to exempt gun owners from being sued (i.e. Bernie Sanders).

NYT: What Donald Trump Owes Geo(rge Wallace.

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A deep dive on why people vote Republican and specifically why they like Donald Trump from the NYT: Purity, Disgust, and Donald Trump, by Thomas B. Edsall.

Two views on the sexual assaults in Germany: NYT: German’s Post-Cologne Hysteria and Daily Mail: Why Germany can’t face the truth about migrant sex attacks: SUE REID finds a nation in denial as a wave of horrific attacks is reported across Europe.

Village Voice: Donald Trump and the Joys of Toy Fascism (h/t Dakinikat).

Yahoo News: Jeb Bush races to salvage presidential campaign.

Boston Globe: Bernie Sanders in Clinton Territory (Massachusetts).

NBC News: Hillary Clinton Slams Bernie Sanders on Guns.


Thursday Reads

 woman-reading

Good Morning!!

Donald Trump has succeeded in making an issue out of Ted Cruz’s Canadian birth, and it only took him a about a week. Another Republican are now questioning whether Cruz is eligible to be POTUS. Ironically, that Republican is John McCain who was also born outside the U.S. He was born on a U.S. military base in the Panama Canal Zone.

CBS News: John McCain Says Ted Cruz’s citizenship is “worth looking into.”

In an interview Wednesday on Phoenix radio station 550 KFYI’s Chris Merill Show, McCain said he “doesn’t know” whether Cruz’s birth in Canada makes him eligible to be president. Cruz, whose father was born in Cuba, asserts that he is a U.S. citizen because his mother was an American.

“I know that came up in my race because I was born in Panama, but I was born in the Canal Zone which is a territory. Barry Goldwater was born in Arizona when it was territory when he ran in 1964,” McCain said.

McCain added that he was born on a U.S. military base, which he said is not the same as being born in Canada.

“That’s different from being born on foreign soil. I think there is a question. I’m not a constitutional scholar on that, but I think it’s worth looking into. I don’t think it’s illegitimate to look into it.”

Asked if the Supreme Court might have to weigh in on the “natural born citizen” issue, McCain said, “It may be, that may be the case.”

I don’t think so. After all George Romney was born in Mexico and he was deemed eligible to run for the presidency in 1968. But John McCain hates Ted Cruz’s guts and so do most of his other Senate colleagues. It will be interesting to see if this goes anywhere.

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What I find really frightening is Trump’s ability to gin up bogus issues so easily. How is this going to affect Hillary’s campaign?

From ABC News, here’s the latest on the birther “issue” from Trump: Donald Trump Wants Ted Cruz to ‘Go Before a Judge’ About His Citizenship.

Donald Trump wants Ted Cruz to go before a judge to “immediately, like tomorrow” to determine whether or not he is a “natural born citizen” and therefore eligible to run for president.

Trump made the request for Cruz to seek a declaratory judgment from federal court on the issue during an interview with CNN on Wednesday.

Trump cast such a move as “for the good of Ted.”

“You go in seeking the decision of the court without a court case. You go right in. You go before a judge, you do it quickly. Declaratory judgment. It’s very good,” Trump told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer. “So when there’s a doubt — because there’s a doubt. You want the court to rule.”

LOWELL, MA - JANUARY 4: Republican candidate for President Donald Trump speaks to thousands of spectators at a rally in Lowell, Massachusetts on Monday evening January 4, 2016. (Photo by Melina Mara/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

LOWELL, MA – JANUARY 4: Republican candidate for President Donald Trump speaks to thousands of spectators at a rally in Lowell, Massachusetts on Monday evening January 4, 2016. (Photo by Melina Mara/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

Donald Trump held a rally in Lowell, Massachusetts on Monday. Lowell is a 15 minute drive from the New Hampshire border. Anyway Charlie Pierce was in attendance at the rally. Here’s his report: My Monday Night in Massachusetts with He, Trump. Pierce begins by noting the irony of Trump appearing in the building named after the late Senator Paul Tsongas.

The late Senator Paul Tsongas was a brilliant, mild man of substance and ideas. I didn’t agree with all of the latter; Tsongas was an early neoliberal deficit hawk, about which we amiably argued for a number of years. As a political person, he was as far from He, Trump as a chamber quartet is from an industrial shop floor. The greatest monument to his dogged, determined approach is the city of Lowell itself. The Lowell National Historical Site, a monument to the city’s legacy as an industrial center, was Tsongas’s dream. He worked night and day to make it a reality and it revitalized the city, which is why the arena in which He, Trump brought his monkey show was named after him.

Former U.S. Sen. Paul E. Tsongas, D-Mass., who rebounded from cancer to briefly become the Democratic frontrunner for president in 1992, died Saturday, Jan. 18, 1997, of pneumonia at Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston. He was 55. Tsongas is shown in this Feb. 2, 1992 photo when he spoke at a town meeting in Nasua, N.H. (AP Photo/Greg Gibson)

Former U.S. Sen. Paul E. Tsongas, D-Mass., who rebounded from cancer to briefly become the Democratic frontrunner for president in 1992, died Saturday, Jan. 18, 1997, of pneumonia at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston. He was 55. Tsongas is shown in this Feb. 2, 1992 photo when he spoke at a town meeting in Nasua, N.H. (AP Photo/Greg Gibson)

A little more:

The primary policy prescription is to elect He, Trump, because he knows everything, including enough smart, top guys who will help him in the unlikely event that he comes up against a problem about which he doesn’t know everything. (He once again cites Carl Icahn and the rest of his proposed junk-bond Cabinet.) I would analyze the ideas presented to the loving audience, but the only idea presented was electing He, Trump, who knows everything. For example, he proposes that, to defeat ISIS, we should “take the oil.” Taking the oil is the beginning and the end of the policy, the alpha and the omega of the idea.“We should be unpredictable,” he says, and I don’t really know what that means, but everyone cheered….

He does not deliver speeches. He delivers remarks. He recites his poll numbers. He explains his long fight against the odds that has resulted in said poll numbers. He mocks Jeb Bush and he sucks up to Tom Brady. He cracks that Hillary Clinton “has the biggest teleprompters,” and everybody laughs a laugh straight out of a frathouse smoker, and he’s rambling on to another topic, usually involving He, Trump. 

Pierce doesn’t get the appeal of this narcissistic display, and neither do I. Nevertheless there are apparently quite a few Americans who lap it up, and that is truly scary. Please go read the rest at the link above.

Another “issue” that came up on the Republican side yesterday was about Marco Rubio’s new shoes with fancy Cuban heels. From NY Magazine’s The Cut: A Vote for Marco Rubio Is a Vote for Men’s High-Heeled Booties.

Republican presidential candidate Marco Rubio and One Direction bandmember Harry Styles have something in common. Well, two things, actually: an appreciation for the 1D song “What Makes You Beautiful,” and a love of heeled booties.

At a campaign stop in New Hampshire on Monday, Rubio appeared wearing incredibly fashionable, incredibly well-heeled black leather ankle boots that are sure to feed those rumors about his extravagant spending habits. The boots — which we think are eitherthese Giorgio Brutini boots or these Margiela ones — look a lot like a pair favored by Styles, albeit with slightly less pilgrim flair.

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The shoes got a surprising amount of attention from the media and other GOP presidential candidates.

From Slate: Serious Adult Presidential Candidates Make Fun of Marco Rubio’s Fancy Shoes.

It is January of a presidential year. Voting begins in a few weeks. It is time that voters stop dabbling with silly clowns like Donald Trump and his childish insults and consider serious candidates. Political leaders, like Jeb Bush, who will soberly discuss complex issues of great import including trade, budgeting, diplomacy, war …

… and Sen. Marco Rubio’s girly little girl boots.

The Republican side this week is consumed with chatter about Marco Rubio’s choice of footwear during a recent visit to New Hampshire. The problem, in short, is that Rubio’s may well be fancy, made of the choicest leathers and featuring a disconcerting rise in the heel region. To the naked eye, they look suspiciously Eye-talian. In this country, the common, conservative man is expected to wear a bunch of greasy McDonald’s wrappers on his feet, tied together by the intestines of a freshly murdered grizzly bear.

But what about those high heeled cowboy boots lots of conservative guys wear? How is that any different? Oh well, I just don’t get Republican thinking period. A few more links on this:

Policy Mic: Marco Rubio’s Shiny High-Heeled Black Boots Dominated Social Media for No Reason At All.

Vanity Fair: How Much Do Marco Rubio’s Boots Cost?

The Guardian: Devilish history of Cuban heels proves they’re too sexy for Rubio’s God squad.

USA Today: Marco Rubio unamused about ‘high-heeled booties’ scrutiny.

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On the Democratic side, the Clinton scandal-mongers are at it again. I’m not going to link to a lot of stories, but you can find some on Memeorandum.com. Here’s Karen Tumulty at the Washington Post:

The ghosts of the 1990s have returned to confront Hillary Clinton, released from the vault by Donald Trump and revved up by a 21st-century version of the scandal machine that almost destroyed her husband’s presidency.

This is a moment that her campaign has long expected. What remains to be seen is whether a reminder of allegations of sexual impropriety against Bill Clinton — which were deemed to have varying levels of credibility when they were first aired — can gain new traction in a different context.

The fresher case being made is that Hillary Clinton has been, at a minimum, hypocritical about her husband’s treatment of women, and possibly even complicit in discrediting his accusers.

And it is being pressed at a time when there is a new sensitivity toward victims of unwanted sexual contact, and when one of the biggest news stories is the prosecution of once-beloved comedian Bill Cosby on charges that he drugged and assaulted a woman 12 years ago — one of dozens who have accused him of similar behavior.

I’m not aware that Bill Clinton has been accused on drugging women, but I suppose Hillary is going to have to deal with this somehow.

On the positive side, here’s a great article on Hillary’s campaign at Fast Company: How the Hillary Clinton Campaign Built A Campaign Staff as Diverse as America. You really need to go read the whole thing, so I’m not going to post excerpts.

What else is happening? Please let us know in the comment thread.