Death of a Salespitch

Posted: December 5, 2010 | Author: | Filed under: Catfood Commission | Tags: , , | 48 Comments

I’m really hoping that Stan Collender has got it right. He’s arguing in short form today that the Cat Food Commission is dead with a promise of further details in an upcoming column at Roll Call. His first argument seems pretty reasonable.  The Report needs 14 to pass and only 11 participants seem willing to do so.  Here are his others.

  • The 11 members of the commission who favored the plan likely overstates the actual amount of support.  It seems clear that at least two and maybe more announced their support only when they were certain the plan wouldn’t get 14 votes.  Their approval was more about political posturing for the future than actual enthusiasm.
  • Don’t read too much into the bipartisan support for some of the options.  If these same proposals are considered at all, they will next be debated in a very different political context and in a package that will look very different from the one the commission considered.  Support for them in the commission is no indication they will be supported again.
  • Don’t read too much into the enthusiastic response the plan received from various deficit hawk groups.  Many of them supplied the commission with staff, helped develop what ultimately was proposed, and had a stake in its outcome.  Under these circumstances, their enthuisastic approval and attempt to define the outcome as a success was not at all suprising.  It’s also not especially indicative of any larger movement toward what was proposed.

I’m actually finding the power of the nifty graph from Matt Ygelisias at TP an even more compelling reason.  He’s posting a response to Paul Krugman who can’t believe that the Beltway crowd is so obsessed with ruining social security.   Krugman’s blog post today also contains his thoughts and the same nifty graph.

Look at the number of seniors that rely on social security for the majority or near majority of their incomes. That’s just income quintiles.  You know that the distribution is skewed right (i.e population is largest on the lower ends.)   Who wants to turn their life savings and major income source in old age over to a bunch of Wall Street High rollers or even worse, have it diced and sliced into pieces that you may or may not receive?

Even though Social Security is only a very mildly redistributive program, inequality of wealth is such that it’s a vital element of the bottom 60 percent’s living standards but kind of small beer to the top twenty percent. But I would say the other thing here on the Medicare / Social Security contrast is that Medicare isn’t just a subsidy program for old people. It’s also a subsidy program for doctors, nurses, hospital administrators, pharmaceutical executives, etc. Those people have lobbyists, many of their professions are well-respected, and many members of the political/media elite have siblings, cousins, college buddies, and even spouses who work in those fields.

The tragedy is that this very same factor that makes it harder to cut Medicare is also why cutting Social Security is a much worse idea. Our health care sector is low productivity mess and there are a lot of health-improving things a low-income senior can buy with Social Security money but can’t buy with Medicare. Healthy food, a gym membership, home-repair, etc.

Baby Boomers may not be a monolithic group, but I have to think that since most of us had our private savings and our home values chewed up and spit out by hedge funds and investment banks, we’re not going to go quietly into the night while having our social security gutted.  I can’t imagine our remaining parents are going to be happy about it either since most of them have been paying in to the program since its initiation.  Also, remind your children that should this pass, you will be expecting a room in their house because you will need it.

The graph and a lot of good information is from Our Fiscal Security. That’s the organization that I wrote about earlier that came up with a liberal response to the Bowles-Simpson ice floes plan.  Let me just remind you of a few things from them about our Social Security.

  1. Social Security is currently in surplus and will take in more than it pays out until at least 2037, more than a quarter century from now.
  2. Raising the employer and employee payroll tax rates by just 1.1 percent each would erase the entire 75-year projected shortfall.
  3. Inequality leads to the projected Social Security shortfall: as income growth has become concentrated at the top, more income has fallen above the payroll cap of $106,800. Congress could close the entire 75 year projected funding gap by raising or eliminating the cap on taxable payroll income.
  4. Not just an I.O.U.: Income to the Social Security trust funds must be invested in guaranteed Treasury securities, which can be redeemed at any time at face value, giving the trust funds the same flexibility as cash.
  5. Social Security can never add to the yearly deficit; by law it cannot draw a single dollar from general revenues, even if payroll taxes fall short of scheduled benefits.

There’s a few more points out there if you’d like to go read them.  It’s a data worth sending to your Congress Critterz.

Saturday Treats

Posted: December 4, 2010 | Author: | Filed under: Treats | Tags: , , | 55 Comments

You may know that I got married pretty young and that my mother-in-law was born in Kyoto.  I was married for like 20 years and during that time my mother-in-law lived with us for quite some time.  I was a teenager when I first tasted her sushi and other Japanese recipes.  Both of my kids usually consider ‘home cooking’ to be some weird combination of southern food and Japanese food.  They are used to both mac and cheese and yaki soba.

So, when I left my husband and settled into New Orleans, one of the first things I had to find was a grocery store with authentic Japanese ingredients.  I finally found one out by the airport run by a nice Japanese woman.  My first check out still gives my family a good giggle.  I started placing all my fresh and packaged food for check out and the astonished owner blinked at me and said “You shop like Japanese housewife” with her very Japanese accent.  Well, that’s a part of who I was for some time so I suppose that’s as good a compliment to how well Mama San taught me to cook as any.

So, this in thread I’m sharing some of Mama-san’s recipes that I learned from her when I was a mere 19 year old.  I’m hoping that some of you will share your ethnic comfort food too!!!

First up, are chicken wings that are so delightful that I guaranteed a young analyst at the FED she would win the chicken wing cook off contest at a local bar here in New Orleans.  Winning any cooking contest takes a lot here because this is Food City Central.  Kai took the recipe and won the contest.  You’ll be surprised by the surprise ingredient too!!!  (Apricot baby food)

Barbecued Chicken Wings

For four people use 1 pkg of 12 pieces chicken wings cut up

1/2 small jar apricot baby food

1/4 cup soy sauce

1/4 cup brown sugar

1-2 tsp. garlic salt

Soak overnight in the refrigerator.  Either cook on the grill over low heat or cook in 325 oven on foil-lined cookie sheet for 1/2 hour.  You’ll need to turn them at least once.  I’ve doubled, tripled, quadrupled, etc. this recipe and it works well for a huge party.  People will eat these things up like candy.

Teriyaki Beef

1/2 lb/per person Rump Roast sliced like thick bacon

1  small bermuda onion-grated

1/2 cup soy sauce

1/4 cup rice wine  (mirin or sake)

1-2 tablespoons water

1/2 tablespoon sugar

1 finger grated ginger juice only

Soak three hours. Do not refrigerate and then Grill!!!  You may want to grill some of the red Bermuda onions along with the beef.  Serve this with Japanese Rice like Botan.   Japanese rice is essential for good Japanese food and new crop is best.

So what have you got to share?!?!?!
C’mon!!! Italian?  Chinese?  Indian?  We know you got’em!!!

US Senate: Defenders of about 0.3 percent of the population

Posted: December 4, 2010 | Author: | Filed under: Elections, legislation, Team Obama, The Bonus Class, U.S. Economy | Tags: , | 31 Comments

News on the Senate vote on various Democratic Tax Plan compromises has just come through on The Hill and Memorandum. Two plans were introduced for votes.  Both failed.

United Senate Republicans joined a small handful of Democrats on Saturday to defeat a pair of proposals to extend some of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts signed into law by President George W. Bush.

Voting nearly identically, the Senate twice failed to meet a 60-vote threshold necessary to move forward on both proposals. Meeting in a rare Saturday session after agreements fell through for a Friday vote, the results were widely expected. They were also somewhat premature, as the White House is still negotiating with congressional leaders on an alternative compromise proposal.

The first proposal by Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.) would have extended the cuts only for individuals with incomes of up to $200,000 and families with incomes of up to $250,000. That failed by a vote of 53-36, with all GOP senators in opposition as well as Democrats Russ Feingold (Wis.), Joe Manchin (W.V.), Ben Nelson (Neb.) and Jim Webb (Va.).

The second proposal by Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) would have extended the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts permanently for incomes of up to $1 million, among other provisions such as a one-year extension of unemployment benefits and cuts in capital gains, estate and dividend taxes. That failed, 53-37, with Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) joining the ‘no’ votes.

The Schumer Bill was referred to as the “Millionaire’s Tax” since most of his provisions applied to only about 0.3 percent of the population.  Both plans essentially extended tax cuts to 98% of the population.  Meanwhile, Mitch McConnell referred to the votes for both plans as “theatrics”.  This is because Republicans had already signaled their intent to filibuster both plans.  Patricia Murphy, writing for The Capitolist at Politics Daily, had this analysis.  I bolded the last sentence to give you an idea of how well negotiations appear to be going.

As Democrats and Republicans continue to spar over the issue, time is running out for them to find a solution. If Congress fails to come to an agreement before the end of the year, rates for all Americans will return to 2001 levels when the Bush-era policy expires on December 31st. In addition to income tax hikes, the changes would increase the estate tax, the marriage penalty tax, taxes on dividends and capital gains, and the Alternative Minimum Tax.

While Democrats pushed their floor votes this week, a bipartisan group of senators and House members met behind closed doors with the Obama administration to hammer out a compromise on the tax issue. Vice President Joe Biden, filling in Saturday for Obama in the White House weekly address, made no mention of the negotiations, but said if the tax cuts aren’t extended “millions of middle-class families will see a big bite out of their paychecks starting Jan. 1. And that’s the last thing we should let happen.” Obama, speaking later at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building, said he was “very disappointed” that the Senate had not approved the tax bill. Continued Tax relief for the middle class should not be held “hostage” by those supporting an extension of the lower rates for high income Americans, he said.

Media reports indicated late last week that a deal had been reached to pass a two-year extension of all the tax cuts, along with a one-year extension of unemployment benefits, and the also new START nuclear arms treaty. But senior Senate aides familiar with the negotiations tell Politics Daily that Republicans feel little pressure to give in to Democratic priorities when they feel confident they can prevail on the tax issue without concessions.

It seems evident to me that the US Senate is willing to play political games with ordinary people’s lives.  The Republicans appear to want to hold START, unemployment extensions, and the tax cuts for the majority of Americans hostage as they represent the interests of the very few uber wealthy and seek gridlock for their own power agenda.  The Democrats have been out maneuvered once again.  A year ago, this predicament would have been thought unbelievable.  If you think it’s bad now, just wait until the jr. senators from Kentucky and Illinois enter the chamber.

Hey, Senator Nelson! Where’d ya get that Toupee!?!!

Posted: December 3, 2010 | Author: | Filed under: Hillary Clinton: Her Campaign for All of Us, Surreality, The Media SUCKS, Women's Rights | Tags: , , | 16 Comments
It just never ends, does it?

 

From Huffpo (h/t Amy at the New Agenda):

Hillary Clinton On What Designers She Wears: ‘Would You Ever Ask A Man That Question?’

You’ll notice this was from an interview in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, but still, you’d think they could ask another question of the main diplomat of a the U.S.

MODERATOR 1: People always touch some personality of Hillary Clinton. We have some – not just silly questions, but (inaudible) –

SECRETARY CLINTON: Oh, I’ve never been asked a silly question in my entire life. (Laughter.)

[…]

MODERATOR 1: Okay. Which designers do you prefer?

SECRETARY CLINTON: What designers of clothes?

MODERATOR 1: Yes.

SECRETARY CLINTON: Would you ever ask a man that question? (Laughter.) (Applause.)

MODERATOR 1: Probably not. Probably not. (Applause.)

What actually really gets to me is the HuffPo Quick poll at the end of the article.
where you get to evaluate Hillary’s answer. Your choices are:

Totally appropriate…she doesn’t need to answer!

Eh. She could have thrown a name or two out there!

Right, that’s exactly what I’d expect of an up and coming media source in the U.S. run by a woman.

Is Joblessness the new Normal?

Posted: December 3, 2010 | Author: | Filed under: Surreality, Team Obama, U.S. Economy | Tags: , | 28 Comments

Why is it that every one in Washington DC is focused on the economic well being of about 2% of U.S. Households?  That’s the number of U.S. households that that were expected by the IRS to make greater than $250k AGI in 2009.  Why aren’t they paying attention to the number of unemployed?

The new jobless figures are out today.  They’re no surprise to  me and a lot of other economists.  However, the worsening job situation keeps going right over the heads of nearly every one on capitol hill. Worse, the only economic policy–that coming from the FED–that shows any recognition of and response to the situation is coming under attack by the right wing and libertarian propaganda machines.  Read this and realize what anemic job growth this country is experiencing.  We are in the Dubya  2 economy.

In a jolting surprise to the economic recovery and market expectations, the United States economy added just 39,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent, according to the Department of Labor.

November’s number was nowhere near enough to help the large ranks of the unemployed, and was far below analysts’ consensus forecast of close to 150,000 jobs and an unchanged jobless rate of 9.6 percent. More than 15 million people remain out of work, and 6.3 million of them have been unemployed for six months or longer.

The monthly snapshot of the job market could lend more support to the suggestion by the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, that the government continue to stimulate the economy, as well as the Obama administration’s call for an extension of unemployment benefits. The apparent loss of hiring momentum may also fuel the debate over whether the government should take aggressive steps to reduce the deficit in the near term or wait until the economy returns to better health.

There’s a good article up by Catherine Rampell–also from the NYT–on the face and features of long term unemployment.  That would be those folks that are labeled by the likes of Ralph Reed as unwilling to find jobs and happy living off of $200 to $300 a week.  The article is called: ‘The New Poor: Unemployed, and Likely to Stay that Way’.  These are the people whose lives hang like political pinatas from the ceiling of the Senate chamber.  How long will they suffer from Republican Fairy Tales and the unwillingness of Democrats to stay up for what is right?

This country has some of the highest levels of long-term unemployment — out of work longer than six months — it has ever recorded. Meanwhile, job growth has been, and looks to remain, disappointingly slow, indicating that those out of work for a while are likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. Even if the government report on Friday shows the expected improvement in hiring by business, it will not be enough to make a real dent in those totals.

So the legions of long-term unemployed will probably be idle for significantly longer than their counterparts in past recessions, reducing their chances of eventually finding a job even when the economy becomes more robust.

Steven Benen from the Washington Monthly sums up the likely political response vs. the necessary one.

If our political system were sane, awful news like this would be a much-needed wake-up call that would spur policymakers to action. There would be an immediate drive on the part of Congress and the White House to do far more to stimulate the economy, inject more capital into the system, and invest in job-creation measures immediately.

Instead, Americans just elected a new House majority that is prepared to do the exact opposite — taking money out of the economy, scrapping economic stimulus, and ignoring all job-creation measures. Voters were angry about the economy last month, and in a tragic irony, elected people intent on making the economy worse.

The majority in this country has elected people ‘intent on making the economy worse’ and a president who is likely to enable them.  Read this headline at WAPO: ‘Obama, GOP in quiet talks to extend tax cuts’. Extending tax cuts to the richest people in this country is an unfunded mandate of  $700 billion a year.  This a priority when the same party is whining about the deficit?  It is clear that most of Washington is only concerned about the deficit when it doesn’t impact their constituencies and the poor, middle class, and unemployed seem to be the constituency of no one.We only deliver frantic votes that are ignored and misinterpreted.

The White House and congressional Republicans have begun working behind the scenes toward a broad deal that would prevent taxes from going up for virtually every U.S. family and authorize billions of dollars in fresh spending to bolster the economy.

Negotiations have accelerated in recent days as Congress has confronted deadlines for extending a series of tax cuts that expire at the end of the month, renewing emergency jobless benefits and keeping the government funded into next year.

The talks mark the dawn of a new era on Capitol Hill, with resurgent Republicans holding far more leverage and commanding a more prominent role in crafting legislation. The private discussions, which parallel a more public set of talks, have left many Democrats grousing that President Obama is being too quick to accommodate his adversaries, who are still a month away from taking control of the House and expanding their presence in the Senate.

These “grousing” Democrats are the same ones that blew a huge majority and mandate on passing Dole/Romney Care instead of taking care of the economy right from the beginning.  They were also the crowd that passed stimulus spending that was inadequate and loaded with pork pies meant to stimulate a few at the expense of the many.

So, now folks like Senator Harkin find their Democratic Voice?  When they face the steam roller straight on?  This dandy quote is from HuffPo.

Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-N.J.), for one, slyly acknowledged that he’d get himself in trouble if he answered whether or not he was happy with the administration’s engagement.

“You want me to be the [troublemaker]?… I’m too junior around here to do that,” said the 86-year-old, five-term senator.

Sen. Tom Harkin (D-Iowa) did a little less dancing. “I just think, if [Obama] caves on this, then I think that he’s gonna have a lot of swimming upstream [to do],” said the Iowa Democrat, a unabashed progressive who has been less reticent than most in criticizing the White House. “He campaigned on [allowing the rates for the rich to expire], was very strong on that, and sometimes there are things that are just worth fighting for.”

And if he decided to compromise away from that, a reporter asked the senator.

“He would then just be hoping and praying that Sarah Palin gets the nomination,” Harkin replied, insinuating that there would be few other Republicans that Obama could assuredly beat in 2012.

Oh, great!  We’re facing down a 10% unemployment rate with historic long term unemployment and all they can think about is the 2012 elections?  We are so f’d.

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