Remain Calm …
Posted: October 29, 2012 Filed under: 2012 elections, 2012 presidential campaign | Tags: polls 32 CommentsThe latest republican trick is one again to attack the polls, lie about the polls, and make up shit. Here’s some great pollsplaining from one of the great 
nerds of statistics and polls Sam Wang.
First, thing up … there is no Ro-mentum and Obama’s lead is static.
In either case, the overall picture is the same: a narrow Obama lead that is static – or perhaps widening. There is no evidence for Ro-mentum.
I’ve been pulling my hair out over the total lack of understanding by a lot of media punditry over white noise or random variation. I think it’s ignorance and not deliberate. Any series of numbers reported over time will go up or down randomly because that’s just the behavior of a variable reported over time. That’s when you have to apply the idea of what’s the top and bottom border of are representing random. This is measured by Standard Deviation and it’s what underlies the idea of being within the margin of error. You have to see fairly clear and sustained patterns in order to call it not random. That’s why you can’t hang on every up and down. Basically, it takes 7 ups or 7 downs to bust out of the three standard deviation realm of what’s normal. Take a look at the graph over there. It goes up and it goes down. The deal to figure out is what is ‘statistically’ significant. You can’t hang on every blip of every poll.
Poll correctness has a lot to do with the way the sample is treated. That’s the basis of the guess of how many republicans you should sample or democrats in the overall sample. You have to estimate–base on historical patterns or something else–what the patterns of voter turn out will be. That’s what most of the complaints about polls tend to reflect. These assumptions lead to weighting the samples differently. That’s why a lot of folks do meta-analysis or look at a poll of polls. This has to do with the law of large numbers which tells us that averages of averages tend to reflect reality. But, the core reality is that pollsters make money by producing accurate pictures and not by telling people what the want to hear. One legitimate concern is if you should look at all voters or likely voters. A lot of the rest of the so-called sampling biases that pundits scream about tend to be based more on wishful thinking than anything. There are some differences in terms of how statistics are used. Both Gallup an Rasmussen are median-based polls and this can make a difference when comparing to a poll that’s not based on the same metrics.
Wang points to the echo chamber and the Romney minions that are focusing on single polls and screaming or clapping.
Paul Krugman is calling out National Review Online for their attempted takedown of Nate Silver for biased methods and somehow cooking the books. Krugman writes:
This is, of course, reminiscent of the attack on the Bureau of Labor Statistics — not to mention the attacks on climate science and much more. On the right, apparently, there is no such thing as an objective calculation. Everything must have a political motive.
Now more commentators on the right, including Jay Cost (The Weekly Standard) and Jennifer Rubin (Washington Post), are getting in on the act. Wow, dogpile on the rabbit!
A popular approach to undermining technical knowledge is to throw mud, assert expertise, make picky points, and sow doubts among the less savvy. In this case, what’s the argument? The NRO writer, Josh Jordan, makes this core criticism:
When you weight a poll based on what you think of the pollster and the results and not based on what is actually inside the poll (party sampling, changes in favorability, job approval, etc), it can make for forecasts that mirror what you hope will happen rather than what’s most likely to happen.
Jordan sounds like many partisan polling enthusiasts – on both sides. However, his style of poll-dissection can very easily lead a person astray. The human mind has a large capacity for finding reasons to reject a piece of disagreeable evidence. I’ve written about this in the context of how people form false beliefs in politics (“Your Brain Lies To You,” NYT, June 27, 2008). Polling internals lend themselves very well to such “motivated reasoning.” It is always possible to find something not to like in a poll. This is why I discourage all of you from chewing over single polls.
Part of the reason that conservatives are hating on Nate Silver is that they aren’t getting the results they want. It’s the idea that if you scream loud enough, you can get things to change. Check out Silver’s latest. Romney’s chance at getting the electoral college is less than 30% which is basically where it’s been for a very long time . A few up blips do not change a long term trend unless they occur over a period of time.
Any way, calm down and let the metrics be with you. Here’s some interesting snapshots of trends on a state by state basis.
Monday Reads
Posted: October 29, 2012 Filed under: 2012 elections, Libya, morning reads | Tags: Andrew Sullivan, Benghazi, Ohio, Romney Campaign Lies 105 Comments
Good Morning!!!
All things surrounding the elections are now up to 11. I’ve seen some weird things in my days but I’m beginning to check my history books for more bizarre examples of crazy campaign antics. Andrew Sullivan turned my last week’s observation of the similarities between the election maps of 2012 and those of the US directly before the civil war into a national conversation yesterday on ABC. I’m just pointing to ABC right now because I’ve had enough virtual visitations from the KKK for the time being.
During this Sunday’s edition of ABC’s This Week, Daily Beast writer Andrew Sullivan claimed that if Republican nominee Mitt Romney wins back Florida and Virginia in the upcoming 2012 presidential election, especially due to the white vote, then the South’s electoral map will look exactly like the pro-slavery United States Confederacy during the Civil War.
This observation came in response to host George Stephanopoulos noting that the latest polls show that six out of ten white Americans intend to vote for Romney.
PBS reporter Gwen Ifill said that “we can’t ignore” the possible factor racial animus may play in deciding the election, noting that the poll indicates that, on some level, people are still willing to admit “racial bias.”
Sullivan then added: “If Virginia and Florida go back to the Republicans, it’s the Confederacy. Entirely. You put a map of the Civil War over this electoral map, you’ve got the Civil War.”
Perhaps we all really need to have a big conversation on racism in America. It appears white people think they are victims of racism while still using racial stereotypes for people of color. I’m confused. Hasn’t any one had read any literature or history on institutional racism. White people screaming racism is about like the current crop of republican men shouting they’re victims of misogyny.
Racial prejudice has increased slightly since 2008 whether those feelings were measured using questions that explicitly asked respondents about racist attitudes, or through an experimental test that measured implicit views toward race without asking questions about that topic directly.
Fifty-one percent of Americans now express explicit anti-black attitudes, compared with 48 percent in a similar 2008 survey. When measured by an implicit racial attitudes test, the number of Americans with anti-black sentiments jumped to 56 percent, up from 49 percent during the last presidential election. In both tests, the share of Americans expressing pro-black attitudes fell.
“As much as we’d hope the impact of race would decline over time … it appears the impact of anti-black sentiment on voting is about the same as it was four years ago,” said Jon Krosnick, a Stanford University professor who worked with AP to develop the survey.
Most Americans expressed anti-Hispanic sentiments, too. In an AP survey done in 2011, 52 percent of non-Hispanic whites expressed anti-Hispanic attitudes. That figure rose to 57 percent in the implicit test. The survey on Hispanics had no past data for comparison.
The AP surveys were conducted with researchers from Stanford University, the University of Michigan and NORC at the University of Chicago.
The Romney campaign continues its strategy of lying by planning on using an ad in Ohio about a false, conspiracy theory on a jeep plant closing to move to China. It’s been completely denied, debunked, and disproved so, Romney’s continuing to put it out there. They’ve even put together an ad.
As you may have heard, Romney on Thursday scared the bejeezus out of Ohio autoworkers when, during arally, he cited a story claiming that Chrysler was moving Jeep production to China. Thousands of people work at a sprawling Jeep complex in Toledo and a nearby machining plant. Many thousands more work for suppliers or have jobs otherwise dependent on the Jeep factories. It’s fair to say that they owe their jobs to President Obama, who in 2009 rescued Chrysler and General Motors from likely liquidation. If Chrysler moved the plants overseas, most of those people would be out of work.
The story turns out to be wrong. As Chrysler made clear the very next day, in a tartly worded blog post on the company website, officials have discussed opening plants in China in order to meet rising demand for vehicles there. They have no plans to downsize or shutter plants in the U.S. On the contrary, Fiat, the Italian company that acquired Chrysler during the rescue, just spent $1.7 billion to expand Jeep production in the U.S. That includes $500 million to renovate and expand the Toledo facilities, with 1,000 new factory jobs likely to follow. On Monday, about the same number of people will report for their first day of work in Detroit, when Chrysler adds a third shift to a Jeep plant it operates there.
This is as bad as all the false narratives out there being repeated about Benghazi including the completely false narrative that Hillary Clinton asked for more security and Obama denied it. Then, there’s the they didn’t send the military in to help meme that points to the White House too. All of this is patently false but still harped on by Romney surrogates. The desperation of Romney supporters is evident in all these lies. That and the contempt they must have for the American people. Even former Bush SOS Condi Rice says these Republican narratives are ridiculous.
It is being charged that requests for extra security in Benghazi were denied by the administration.
The suggestion is that the attack would have been stopped, and the ambassador still alive, if the requests had been granted.
But at a hearing of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee this month, Charlene Lamb, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State and head of the Bureau of Diplomatic Security, testified that the request was for added security in Tripoli, the capital of Libya, and not Benghazi.
The added manpower would have been based 400 miles away from the violence.
In addition, U.S. security officials report more guards could not have repelled heavy weapons used by the attackers.
The Wall Street Journal has reported “a four-man team of armed guards protecting the perimeter and four unarmed Libyan guards inside to screen visitors.”
In addition, “Besides the four armed Libyans outside, five armed State Department diplomatic security officers were at the consulate.”
There is an air of hypocrisy about this second charge from Republican critics.
House Republicans voted to cut nearly $300 million in funding from Embassy Security as part of their most recent budget.
Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) conceded this in a CNN interview.
“Absolutely. Look, we have to make priorities and choices in this country… When you’re in tough economic times, you have to make difficult choices how to prioritize this.”
Dean Baker has an excellent article up on the future of Social Security and Why Big Bucks Donors don’t like political discussions that strongly support the program. He argues that any highly vocal support of Social Security by Obama would dry up his campaign contributions.
But there is another set of economic considerations affecting the politics of social security. These considerations involve the economics of the political campaigns and the candidates running for office. The story here is a simple one: while social security may enjoy overwhelming support across the political spectrum, it does not poll nearly as well among the wealthy people – who finance political campaigns and own major news outlets. The predominant philosophy among this group is that a dollar in a workers’ pocket is a dollar that could be in a rich person’s pocket – and these people see social security putting lots of dollars in the pockets of people who are not rich.
Cutting back benefits could mean delays in repaying the government bonds held by the Trust Fund . The money to repay these bonds would come primarily from a relatively progressive income tax revenue. The wealthy certainly don’t want to see changes like raising the cap on wages that are subject to the social security tax, which is currently just over $110,000.
For this reason, a candidate who comes out for protecting social security can expect to see a hit to their campaign contributions. They also can anticipate being beaten up in both the opinion and news sections of major media outlets. While, in principle, these are supposed to be kept strictly separate, the owners and/or top management of most news outlets feel no qualms about removing this separation when it comes to social security – and using news space to attack those who defend social security.
So, that’s my offerings this morning. What’s on your reading and blogging list today?
Sandy says the Sun Will Not Come Out Tomorrow
Posted: October 28, 2012 Filed under: open thread | Tags: Hurricane Sandy 44 Comments
We are all thinking about the folks that will be impacted by Hurricane Sandy. I’m feeling your pain!! They’re calling this a 100 year storm. I’ve seen more than my share of 100 year, 300 year and 500 year storms. Be prepared!!
Sandy may combine with a second storm coming out of the Midwest to create a system that would rival the New England hurricane of 1938 in intensity, said Paul Kocin, a National Weather Service meteorologist in College Park, Maryland. The hurricane currently passing the Bahamas has killed 21 people across the Caribbean, the Associated Press reported, citing local officials.
“What we’re seeing in some of our models is a storm at an intensity that we have not seen in this part of the country in the past century,” Kocin said in a telephone interview yesterday. “We’re not trying to hype it, this is what we’re seeing in some of our models. It may come in weaker.”
The hybrid storm may strike anywhere from the Delaware- Maryland-Virginia peninsula to southern New England. The current National Hurricane Center track calls for the system to go up Delaware Bay and almost directly over Wilmington, Delaware, just southwest of Philadelphia, on Oct. 30-31.
Please be certain to let us know how you are!
If it makes you feel better, lots and lots of experienced Louisiana Hurricane workers from LA GOHSEP are on their way up there to help out! We’re also sending fleets of utility trucks. I’m sure our Governor will be up there with you shortly too as long as there are opportunities for him to be on any television set within a short distance of New Hampshire.
Here are some helpful ideas for riding out Hurricane Sandy from the man who would be Fascist Dictator of the US:
#MittStormTips Women, stay indoors until you receive instruction from the nearest man. #AlsoMakeDinner
#MittStormTips: In case of flooding, raise your car elevator to at least the 5th or 6th floor of your mansion. #Sandy
#MittStormTips Stock up on extra housekeepers, kitchen staff, maintenance personnel.
#MittStormtips Pack a flashlight, extra batteries, portable radio, bottled water, a bayonet, and your binder full of women. #sandy
#MittStormTips I’m worried. Some of my best friends own insurance companies.
#MittStormTips: Check the Weather Channel for storm updates. Check Fox News for Why This Is Obama’s Fault updates.
Meanwhile, I should remind you that Mittens wants to get rid of FEMA. Just so you know, Governor Vaginal Probe of Virginia and Governor Shamu of 
New Jersey have their requests for Federal Emergency Authorizations in already. What? The market isn’t going to solve all their problems for them? What? Romney wants them ALL to take care of it themselves.
Hey Governors! Romney says you’re wasting our money! Take care of it yourselves! I’m just waiting for Pat Robertson’s verdict on what group of people he hates that he thinks God’s punishing this time out. My hope is that he has to explain the complete destruction of Liberty University. (No injured people, just total destruction of the damned property.)
h/t to PDGrey
Okay, so seriously, here’s some useful links that I always have handy.
FEMA: Apply for assistance and get help on your flood insurance claims.
American Red Cross: Get help with emergency shelters and hurricane preparation tips.
Weather Underground: This site is the only place to go for real weather information
Also, go there now for the latest warnings and updates.
and NO, I will not link to that horrid song. My cousin played Daddy Warbuck’s secretary on Broadway for quite a few years and I have no idea how she endured that song that many times a week.
Take Care!!! Be Safe and don’t follow #MittStormTips to strap your animals securely to the car roofs when evacuating safe in the knowledge that the rain will clear up the mess!!! Keep your pets inside and keep your pet’s leash, container and food handy in case you have to evacuate. You also need fresh water for you pets so be sure to check their daily water needs. Also, check ahead for pet friendly motels and shelters even if you think you won’t evacuate. Check for other arrangements like a pet storm shelter where you can send your pet free while you stay at another shelter if you get stuck in that situation. They will feed, walk, and make sure your pet gets to you after the storm. Your local government and Red Cross can help you with that!!! One of the big lessons of Katrina was that of the pet experience and now most states and Red Cross Chapters also have pet arrangements of some kind.
Again, Please be Safe!
Yeah, that’s right, I’m voting for the Oprecious …
Posted: October 27, 2012 Filed under: just because | Tags: third party 89 Comments
I live in a bright red state that gave John McCain his biggest margin of victory of all states. I grew up in states where Republicans won in almost all circumstances. If any one knows about symbolic voting, it’s me. That’s about all I’ve ever done. I’ve spent a lot of time voting for folks based on knowing my vote won’t do a damn thing. I just have always tried to vote for the right person as much as possible. Yes, in a lot of cases it’s been the marginally right person because the alternative is just stinky.
This time out, the alternative to the OPrecious is so horrible that I can’t even imagine how any one could fall for his shit, support his shit, or stand to be in the same room with his shit. This does not make me an Obot. No, I’ve not forgotten anything about 2008. I know his drone program and kill list program and gosh knows what else program having to do with our so-called war on terror is not “optimal” or consistent with my values. But, a vote fro Romney only makes that worse and it makes ABSOLUTELY everything else worse too. I’m not into voting based on giving a chance to making absolutely everything worse . I am all for making a statement to the people that are orgasmic about making absolutely everything worse.
Matt Stoller–who is taken seriously for some reason–has never written anything based on common sense, research, data, or reality. I hate to even write on this because he’s such a lightweight that calling him a pseduo intellectual is a kindness. This article is all over twitter and the web so it’s hard to ignore it. Thankfully, I don’t know any one that’s not making fun of it so that’s really soothing to my worried mind. I still can’t believe how so many people can confuse random variation with Romney Momentum so I know that the punditry is dense, but calling Stoller dense would be a kindness too. Matt Stoller shows that even a privileged upbringing and education are lost are many folks and not just Dubya Bush.
I know a lot of folks who are voting for a third party and I really do not begrudge them anything at this point. But, I will say that it’s not a good decision because Romney/Ryan represent nothing that I’ve ever worked for and fought for as a feminist and civil rights activist. They also represent everything I know is wrong via my education is a financial economist. I’m sorry Stoller, but you are really wrong and if any one takes you seriously, our country will surely pay for it. If we wake up to another Florida 1999 I will be really pissed and I will be forced to think of you.
So why oppose Obama? Simply, it is the shape of the society Obama is crafting that I oppose, and I intend to hold him responsible, such as I can, for his actions in creating it. Many Democrats are disappointed in Obama. Some feel he’s a good president with a bad Congress. Some feel he’s a good man, trying to do the right thing, but not bold enough. Others think it’s just the system, that anyone would do what he did. I will get to each of these sentiments, and pragmatic questions around the election, but I think it’s important to be grounded in policy outcomes. Not, what did Obama try to do, in his heart of hearts? But what kind of America has he actually delivered? And the chart below answers the question. This chart reflects the progressive case against Obama.
No third party candidate has a snowball’s chance in hell of doing anything but bringing down one of the two duopoly candidates. If you’re responsible for bringing down Obama at this point, you are really really really going to live to regret it. Well, no you won’t because you’ll still have a job and then you’ll just write about how horrible Mitt Romney is, and how did this happen? You won’t be the one worrying about all the consequences of a rape. You won’t worry about paying for birth control or praying that your job would just paid you what it pays the guy sitting next to you. You won’t be an unemployed teacher, firefighter or police man. You won’t be sitting in some middle eastern hell realm with a bunch of folks who want to kill you and you won’t be lying in your bed at night thinking about some you love that is. You won’t be the one who looses his mail service, his social security payment, or his medicare. You won’t be the one who has no recourse when they lose a job or a school slot due to racial discrimination. You won’t be the one continually asked for a birth certificate or an ID card to prove your citizenship. No, you won’t so just stay up there on your imaged high horse and spew shit without consequence.
Here’s Joshua Holland’s cogent argument for not voting third party this year. My emotional argument as a long time advocate of reproductive rights, women’s rights, and survivor of violence and rape advocate is that I want to see the Republican Party of and each of its candidates sent to a political oblivion hell realm so deep and so far that they will never get out. For that, I’m willing to happily vote and support Obama.
Daniel Ellsberg makes the case for this strategy here. If, on the other hand, you agree with Matt Stoller that Romney would be no worse for progressive America than Obama – a position that I find ludicrous – then do what you think is best. I won’t tell anyone how to vote.
The reason this is a terrible idea in 2012 is simple: there is now a non-trivial chance that Mitt Romney could win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College to Obama. It’d be like 2000 in reverse. Right now, Romney holds a small, 1-point lead in the popular vote, according to TPM’s polling average . But in TPM’s electoral college vote tally, Obama is leading 261-206 (a candidate needs 270 to win). Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight model gives a 5.3 percent likelihood of this scenario coming to pass. That’s not exactly a winning-the-lotto-type long-shot.
Now, in a perfect world, this wouldn’t matter. We have a quirky system, and the winner of the popular vote is, for better or worse, a matter of trivia. We select presidents according to the Electoral College tally, not the popular vote. And if you think Republicans would greet this news rationally, understanding that George W. Bush lost the popular vote in 2000 and acknowledging that we should be consistent in these matters, then by all means, vote strategically for Jill Stein or whomever if you’re in an uncontested state.
I think a more realistic view is that they’d precipitate a crisis, as the conservative media howled about how the people had spoken and their will must be respected. A concerted effort would be made to persuade members of the Electoral College to become “ faithless electors. ” Efforts would be made to split the electoral vote proportionally in any states Obama wins that are controlled by Republicans. We’d see more “ Brooks Brothers riots ” unfold. It’d be a huge mess, and I don’t think the outcome would be certain.
Again, I’m not holding a third part vote against any one. I am holding voting a Romney/Ryan vote against every one except my 90 year old father. The rest of you will be dead to me. PERIOD. But, any chance at ushering anything but complete obliteration of today’s Republican party during this election is a wasted opportunity.
Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, has gotten this far with a guile that allows him to say whatever he thinks an audience wants to hear. But he has tied himself to the ultraconservative forces that control the Republican Party and embraced their policies, including reckless budget cuts and 30-year-old, discredited trickle-down ideas. Voters may still be confused about Mr. Romney’s true identity, but they know the Republican Party, and a Romney administration would reflect its agenda. Mr. Romney’s choice of Representative Paul Ryan as his running mate says volumes about that.
Yes, this is what he represents.
An ideological assault from the right has started to undermine the vital health reform law passed in 2010. Those forces are eroding women’s access to health care, and their right to control their lives. Nearly 50 years after passage of the Civil Rights Act, all Americans’ rights are cheapened by the right wing’s determination to deny marriage benefits to a selected group of us. Astonishingly, even the very right to vote is being challenged.
Mitt Romney and the current crop of crapmiesters in the Republican party represent everything that could possibly be wrong in this country. Nothing about them should be left standing after this election. Matt Stoller would rather self-promote his ass-holiness than actually look at what kind of possible reality his ramblings and mental midget masturbations would bring. My belief is he’s an Ayn Rand groupie who just doesn’t want to hang around with the creepsters with radical right social agendas because their anti-intellectual ickiness might reflect on him. He should be ignored.
My vote is not going to Obama and everything and every person that is NOT a Republican because being a Republican is basically being everything I stand against. At this point, everything I value is so under threat that I’m not going to go on some third party suicide watch list. Btw, if you know any libertarians … get them to vote Johnson. I’m encouraging every one of them to know to stand up for what they believe knowing full well he’s economic policies would tank the country …. Guess why?
So hate me.
MittLoaf: A mind and/or voice is a terrible thing to lose …
Posted: October 26, 2012 Filed under: open thread | Tags: snark fest, ugly old white men 49 Commentswith apologies to Dan Quayle and the composer of “America the Beautiful”. Listen to this at your own risk. I have perfect pitch so it made me about go up the wall.
If poor old Clint Eastwood’s rant to an empty chair wasn’t enough to let you know that washed-up old white men rock the Romney World, listening to the “music” on that video will do it. Well, okay, Romney does have Lindsey Lohan. I’ll leave that implication to you. Where did this video come from ? CrankFest? (Paging Dr. Drew … Dr Drew…)
@SheSheGo
“Republican Birth Control: Donald Trump, John #Sununu, Ted Nugent and Meat Loaf.”
Republicans have found a new replacement for birth control and a cure for female heterosexuality. It’s called celebrities that endorse Mitt Romney.
Hey Girl, it’s Meat Loaf, Donald Trump, Chuck Norris, Rush Limbaugh, Kid Rock, Ted Nugent …
The list goes on and on and on … way too long
and so does my need to lose lunch.
If I add any more pictures I’m likely to go on a starvation diet. Wow. What a bunch of guys destined to make you lose your appetite for just about everything. I can only wonder what their poor mothers think.
America may be beautiful, but these guys? Sheesh!
@PaulRyanGosling
”Hey girl, not to brag, but our supporters include Kid Rock, Ted Nugent, Meatloaf, and many other artists from the 99 cent cassette tape bin.”
(open thread and snarkfest)
and a contrast:
peej
Carissa
bostonboomer
dakinikat
ecocatwoman
jjlo
mablue2
Mama Lopez
peggysue22
quixote
skydancingguestblogger
Mona (aka Wonk the Vote)
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