Lazy Caturday Reads: Clueless In Iran

Good Afternoon!!

By Vladimir Olenberg

We are so screwed. Whoever these morons are who decided Trump should get a second chance at the presidency have made a mess that likely won’t be cleaned up in my lifetime.

I don’t think we have any idea yet how bad this Iran war is going to get. Experts are already telling us that the coming energy crisis will be the worst in history. Trump is moving toward putting troops on the ground in Iran. An as of yesterday, 13 U.S. soldiers have been killed and 200 wounded.

All of this is just to distract from the Epstein files. So before I get to Trump’s war, I want to share some Epstein news from Miami Herald reporter Julie K. Brown’s Substack: Documents reportedly shredded by BOP after Epstein’s Death.

“Did you ever destroy any of Epstein’s paperwork?”

This was just one of the many questions that two of the corrections officers who worked the night of Epstein’s death were asked by federal agents two years after the financier’s death was ruled a suicide.

The agents also asked whether the guards had information that indicated Epstein was harmed by anyone, been killed by anyone or had hired anyone to help him hang himself at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in Manhattan on Aug. 10, 2019….

So that made me think. Was something destroyed?

When you search for the words “destruction” or “shredding” in the Epstein Files you find that indeed there were reports in the week after Epstein’s death that boxes of material were feverishly being shredded at the prison.

In fact, at least one corrections officer reported to the FBI that an inmate was hauling an unusual number of bags of trash to the dumpster at the rear gate of MCC on Aug. 15 and 16, less than a week after Epstein’s death.

“They are shredding everything,” the inmate allegedly told one of the guards, adding that he was asked to give the officials, whom he did not recognize, a hand with the shredding.

The inmate wasn’t the only one who found it out of the ordinary. A corrections officer at the prison called the FBI’s National Threat Operations Center that same night, a Friday, at 6:28 p.m. to report that he had “never seen this amount of bags of shredded documents coming out to be put in the dumpster at the rear gate of MCC.”

A back gate corrections officer was also troubled by what he witnessed as the inmate brought down “bales” of shredded paper, according to a memo he wrote to investigators three days later, on Monday, Aug. 19.

The FBI ultimately determined the reports were unfounded, but federal prosecutors nevertheless noted that key documents — such as inmate counts — were missing in the aftermath of Epstein’s death.

And investigators rigorously asked those corrections officers about Epstein’s missing inmate file.

I’m more than ever convinced that Epstein was murdered. There are countless wealthy people who wanted him gone, including Donald Trump. I’m very glad that July Brown is on the case.

Now here’s the latest on Trump’s war.

Al Jazeera has a great summary: Iran war: What’s happening on day 22 of US-Israel attacks?

The war launched by the United States and Israel on Iran has entered its fourth week, with more than 1,400 people reported killed in Iran.

Iran has attacked Israel and US bases in retaliation, threatened Western countries and Gulf states, and warned that global shipping and energy infrastructure could be at risk, as millions of Iranians mark Eid al-Fitr and Nowruz under the shadow of war.

Virginia at the Window, Giusseppe Mariotti

Separately, the US said it was considering “winding down” the conflict while ruling out a ceasefire, and the United Kingdom has allowed the US to use military bases to carry out attacks on Iranian missile sites.

In Iran

• Casualties: The war has killed 1,444 people in Iran, including at least 204 children. Air defences were activated over the capital, Tehran, and nearby areas following reports of explosions as the country celebrated the first day of the Persian new year, Nowruz.
• United Kingdom: Iran fired ⁠two ⁠ballistic missiles at the US-UK military base ⁠Diego Garcia in the ⁠Indian Ocean, the semi-official Mehr news agency reported. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had said Iran will “exercise its right to self-defence” and had warned British lives were in danger after the UK allowed the US to use its bases to launch strikes on Iranian targets.
• 70th wave of attacks: The Iranian armed forces have announced their 70th wave of attacks, launching missiles and drones towards Israel and US bases in the Gulf. This comes as Iran has stepped up its attacks on energy sites across Gulf Arab states in retaliation for an Israeli strike on Iran’s South Pars natural gasfield.

In the Gulf

• Direct threats to the United Arab Emirates: Iran’s military warned it will deliver “crushing blows” to the port city of Ras al-Khaimah if there is any “further aggression” launched from UAE territory against the disputed Gulf islands of Abu Musa and Greater Tunb.
• Bahrain under fire: Bahrain’s defence forces have intercepted and destroyed two more missiles fired from Iran. Bahrain reports that it has destroyed a total of 143 missiles and 242 drones since Iranian attacks began on February 28.
• Saudi Arabia: Its Ministry of Defense reported intercepting and destroying a huge barrage of drones over its eastern region. Saudi forces said they shot down at least 47 drones, including a concentrated barrage of 38 drones within just three hours.
• Kuwait: The Ministry of Defence announced the country is actively “dealing with hostile missile and drone attacks”.
• Refinery strike: Two waves of Iranian drones hit Kuwait’s Mina al-Ahmadi refinery early Friday, sparking a fire at one of the Middle East’s largest facilities, capable of processing approximately 730,000 barrels of oil per day.
• Qatar condemns Israeli strikes: In diplomatic developments, Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly condemned an Israeli attack on military facilities in southern Syria, calling it a flagrant violation of sovereignty and international law.

There’s much more well organized information at the link.

Trump is all over the place on his plans for the war. In fact, it appears that he has no idea what he doing. News organizations are trying to figure it out, but that seems almost pointless.

The New York Times Editorial Board says he’s lying about his goals (gift link): Trump Is Hiding the Truth About the War in Iran.

As I said before, Trump’s statements about the Iran war are all over the place, and he clearly has no idea what he’s doing. He apparently didn’t expect Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz. He also claimed yesterday that he and his advisers were “shocked” that Iran would actually attack U.S. bases in the Middle East.

Haaretz: Trump ‘Shocked’ That Iran Attacked Gulf Neighbors in Retaliatory Strikes.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said he was “shocked” that Iran attacked neighboring Gulf states in retaliation to U.S. and Israeli strikes, insisting that nobody could have predicted such a response.

“They weren’t supposed to go after all these other countries in the Middle East. So they hit Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait. Nobody expected that. We were shocked,” Trump said at a White House event.

He doubled down hours later, stating that “the UAE is like the banker for Iran. Qatar, they are neighbors and got along okay. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain. No expert would say that’s gonna happen. It’s not a question of ‘gee should you have known’ – and if we did, big deal. We have to do what we have to do,” he said in the Oval Office.

In reality, many experts have long warned that Iran was willing and prepared to strike these countries. Iran itself further warned explicitly that neighboring states hosting U.S. military bases could be targeted as part of its deterrence strategy.

Trump’s apparent surprise is the latest example of matters for which the U.S. appeared unprepared – including but not limited to Iran’s military staying power, the regime’s willingness to continue fighting and strategies concerning the Strait of Hormuz choke point that has roiled global energy markets and American gas prices.

Trump’s comments followed an update from CENTCOM chief Brad Cooper that Iran had targeted more than 300 civilian targets in neighboring Gulf states.

I’m sure he was told this would happen, but the man is complete idiot. He doesn’t read or listen and he could even have forgotten what his advisers said. He’s a demented 79 year old.

BBC News: Iranian strikes on bases used by US caused $800m in damage, new analysis shows.

By Madeleine Ossikian

“The damage to US bases in the region has been underreported,” said Mark Cancian, a CSIS senior adviser and co-author of the think tank study. “Although that appears to be extensive, the full amount won’t be known until more information is available.”

In response to a request for comment, the US Department of Defense referred the BBC to US Central Command, which is leading the war. Officials there declined to comment.

Iran’s retaliatory strikes targeted US air-defence and satellite-communication systems, among other assets, in Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and other countries across the Middle East.

A significant portion of damage was caused by a strike on a US radar for a Thaad missile defence system at an air base in Jordan.

The AN/TPY-2 radar system costs approximately $485m according to a CSIS review of defence department budget documents. The air-defence systems are used for the long-range interception of ballistic missiles.

Strikes by Iran caused an additional $310m in estimated damage to buildings, facilities and other infrastructure on US bases and military bases used by American forces in the region.

Iran also has struck at least three air bases more than once, according to an analysis of satellite imagery by BBC Verify. The repeat strikes underscore Iran’s efforts to target specific US assets. Russia has reportedly shared intelligence with Tehran on American military forces in the region.

Satellite imagery shows the three air bases – Ali Al-Salim base in Kuwait, Al-Udeid in Qatar and Prince Sultan in Saudi Arabia – with fresh damage appearing during different phases of the conflict.

But from what we have been hearing from Trump, he actually didn’t expect Iran to retaliate after being attacked!

Matt Spetalnick and Nandita Bose at Reuters: Three weeks in, Iran war escalates beyond Trump’s control.

President Donald Trump ends the third week of the Iran war confronting a crisis that seems to be slipping out of his hands: Global energy prices are surging, the United States stands isolated from allies and more ​troops are preparing to deploy despite his promise the war would be only a “short excursion.”

By Linda Herrerra

A defensive Trump called other NATO countries “cowards” for refusing to help secure the Strait of Hormuz and insisted the campaign was ‌unfolding according to plan. But his declaration on Friday that the battle “was Militarily WON” clashed with the reality of a defiant Iran that is choking off Gulf oil and gas supplies while launching missile strikes across the region.

Trump, who took office promising to keep the U.S. out of “stupid” military interventions, now appears to control neither the outcome nor the messaging of a conflict he helped to initiate. The lack of a clear exit strategy carries risks both for his presidential legacy and his party’s political prospects as Republicans scramble to defend narrow majorities in Congress in the November midterm elections.

“Trump has built himself ​a box called the Iran war, and he can’t figure out how to get out of it,” said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for Republican and Democratic administrations. “That’s his biggest source of frustration.” [….]

The limits of Trump’s power — diplomatically, militarily and politically — were thrown into sharp relief over the past week.

He was caught off-guard by the resistance of fellow NATO members and other foreign partners to deploying their navies ​to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, according to another White House official who, like other officials Reuters spoke to for this story, was granted anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

With the president not wanting to appear isolated, some White House aides have advised ​Trump to quickly find an “off-ramp” and set limits on the military operation’s scope, said one person close to the discussions. But it was unclear whether that argument was enough to sway Trump.

There’s much more at the link.

The Washington Post on mixed messages from Trump about his plans: Trump signals U.S. may leave allies to manage Iran fallout.

President Donald Trump on Friday evening said the United States was considering “winding down” its military efforts in Iran even asthousands of Marines sailed toward the region, leaving unclear whether the White Houseplanned to walk away or escalate its three-week-old war.

Trump’s announcement on social media that he may step back from the war in Iran sought to escalate pressure on allies to assume a greater role in securing the region’s oil shipments — an increasingly urgent concern as energy prices spike. Trump has complained in increasingly bitter terms that U.S. allies are dragging their feet about joining a fight that he launched without consulting them.

“The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not!” he wrote Friday on Truth Social, addingthat he would be open to helping other countries “in their Hormuz efforts.”

“It will be an easy Military Operation for them,” he said.

Tehran has nearly completely shut down a crucial shipping choke point that has sent global energy prices skyrocketing. Trump has lamented multiple times a day this week that Washington’s European and Asian allies have been unwilling to send their militaries to protect the Strait of Hormuz, even though they are more dependent than the United States on the oil and natural gas shipped out of the Persian Gulf.

But Trump is still facing the domestic political consequences of gas prices that have risen 33 percent in the past month — nearly a dollar a gallon, according to AAA figures — creating divisions within his own party as some Republicans grow nervous ahead of the midterm elections. He is also fielding ongoing concerns about the fate of the highly enriched uranium that was buried deep underground by U.S. airstrikes in June.

Hard-liners haveentrenched themselves in Tehran following waves of U.S. and Israeli strikes that Trump has said killed the first, second and third rank of Iranian leadership, leaving the White House to define victory as it seeks an end to the conflict.

The president’s comments come as the Pentagon has developed options that include potentially deploying several thousand paratroopers from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division to key areas in Iran, according to two officials familiar with the issue who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue.

By Vladimir Olenberg

We have no idea whether Trump will send in the thousands of troops headed toward Iran or whether he’ll pull out and leave a huge mess for the rest of the world to clean up. I think we’ll have to wait to see what Kushner, Netanyhu, and Putin tell him to do. Because he’s a complete idiot with dementia!

According to NBC News: Trump weighing several options for U.S. troops inside Iran.

President Donald Trump is weighing whether to send possibly thousands of U.S. troops into Iran as he looks for a way to achieve some of his key goals and end the war, according to the two current U.S. officials, two former U.S. officials and another person familiar with the discussions.

Any deployment of ground troops into Iran would carry increased risk but also a potential strategic value of hastening an end to the war. Trump’s considerations come as he faces a looming global energy crisis, increasing political backlash at home from some of his own supporters, and emerging disagreements between the U.S. and its Middle East allies over the direction of the war.

There are several options under discussion, the sources said. One would be aimed at freeing up passage in the Strait of Hormuz by deploying troops to Iranian ports or small islands in the Persian Gulf to mitigate the threat to vessels, the sources said. Others include an operation to retrieve Iran’s highly enriched uranium or using troops to seize Iranian oil facilities to cut off a key financial lifeline and attempt to extract concessions from the regime, the sources said.

They said none of the options that are being seriously considered are expected to involve large-scale deployments like those in the wars in Iraq or Afghanistan. NBC News previously reported that Trump has privately expressed serious interest in deploying U.S. troops on the ground inside of Iran.

Well that’s good, but then there’s this:

Since the war began, Trump has publicly said he is open to sending U.S. troops into Iran. But when asked about it Thursday, Trump told reporters, “No, I’m not putting troops anywhere. If I were, I certainly wouldn’t tell you, but I’m not putting troops.”

White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said in a statement on Friday, “As President Trump said, he has no plans to send troops anywhere — but he wisely does not broadcast his military strategy to the media.” The Pentagon did not respond to a request for comment.

The scale and duration of any deployment of U.S. troops inside of Iran would depend on the type of operation, but it could range from hundreds of specialized forces operating on the ground for a number of hours, similar to the operation employed by forces in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, to thousands over a matter of weeks, according to the two current U.S. officials and the two former U.S. officials.

Read more at the link. But, the overall takeaway from all these articles is that Trump has no clue what he’s doing.

That’s it for me. I’m terrified about what is going to happen next. What do you think?