Tuesday Reads: Donald Trump, Loser
Posted: August 9, 2016 Filed under: morning reads, The Media SUCKS, U.S. Politics | Tags: Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, polls 68 Comments
Woman in blue reading a letter, Johannes Vermeer
Good Morning!!
Donald Trump is fast becoming that thing he fears most: a loser. At this point it’s difficult to imagine a scenario by which he recovers. Of course that doesn’t mean Democrats should be complacent; and I don’t think there’s a chance in hell that Hillary will let up one bit. Still, it’s fun to watch Trump’s personal nightmare coming true. Losing publicly–and to a woman! Sad.
Last night The Washington Post published an op-ed by Maine Sen. Susan Collins explaining “Why I cannot support Trump.” Here’s the gist:
With the passage of time, I have become increasingly dismayed by his constant stream of cruel comments and his inability to admit error or apologize. But it was his attacks directed at people who could not respond on an equal footing — either because they do not share his power or stature or because professional responsibility precluded them from engaging at such a level — that revealed Mr. Trump as unworthy of being our president.
My conclusion about Mr. Trump’s unsuitability for office is based on his disregard for the precept of treating others with respect, an idea that should transcend politics. Instead, he opts to mock the vulnerable and inflame prejudices by attacking ethnic and religious minorities. Three incidents in particular have led me to the inescapable conclusion that Mr. Trump lacks the temperament, self-discipline and judgment required to be president.
The first was his mocking of a reporter with disabilities, a shocking display that did not receive the scrutiny it deserved. I kept expecting Mr. Trump to apologize, at least privately, but he did not, instead denying that he had done what seemed undeniable to anyone who watched the video. At the time, I hoped that this was a terrible lapse, not a pattern of abuse.
The second was Mr. Trump’s repeated insistence that Gonzalo Curiel, a federal judge born and raised in Indiana, could not rule fairly in a case involving Trump University because of his Mexican heritage. For Mr. Trump to insist that Judge Curiel would be biased because of his ethnicity demonstrated a profound lack of respect not only for the judge but also for our constitutional separation of powers, the very foundation of our form of government. Again, I waited in vain for Mr. Trump to retract his words.
Third was Donald Trump’s criticism of the grieving parents of Army Capt. Humayun Khan, who was killed in Iraq. It is inconceivable that anyone, much less a presidential candidate, would attack two Gold Star parents. Rather than honoring their sacrifice and recognizing their pain, Mr. Trump disparaged the religion of the family of an American hero. And once again, he proved incapable of apologizing, of saying he was wrong.
I am also deeply concerned that Mr. Trump’s lack of self-restraint and his barrage of ill-informed comments would make an already perilous world even more so. It is reckless for a presidential candidate to publicly raise doubts about honoring treaty commitments with our allies. Mr. Trump’s tendency to lash out when challenged further escalates the possibility of disputes spinning dangerously out of control.
I had hoped that we would see a “new” Donald Trump as a general-election candidate — one who would focus on jobs and the economy, tone down his rhetoric, develop more thoughtful policies and, yes, apologize for ill-tempered rants. But the unpleasant reality that I have had to accept is that there will be no “new” Donald Trump, just the same candidate who will slash and burn and trample anything and anyone he perceives as being in his way or an easy scapegoat. Regrettably, his essential character appears to be fixed, and he seems incapable of change or growth.
by Gerrit Alberus Beneker
Also at the WaPo, Stuart Rothenberg writes: Donald Trump needs a miracle to win.
Three months from now, with the 2016 presidential election in the rear-view mirror, we will look back and agree that the presidential election was over on Aug. 9th.
Of course, it is politically incorrect to say that the die is cast.
Journalistic neutrality allegedly forces us to say that the race isn’t over until November, and most media organizations prefer to hype the presidential contest to generate viewers and readers rather than explain why a photo finish is unlikely.
But a dispassionate examination of the data, combined with a cold-blooded look at the candidates, the campaigns and presidential elections, produces only one possible conclusion: Hillary Clinton will defeat Donald Trump in November, and the margin isn’t likely to be as close as Barack Obama’s victory over Mitt Romney.
Rothenberg on the polls:
Pre-convention polls showed the race competitive but with Clinton ahead by at least a few points in most cases. Post-convention polls show Clinton leading the race much more comfortably. The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll puts Clinton’s margin at 9 points, while Fox News shows it at 10 and the Washington Post/ABC News survey finds the margin at 8 points.
These numbers could close a few points or jump around depending on the individual survey, but the race is already well-defined.
In four-way ballots, Clinton maintains her solid lead over Trump, while Libertarian Gary Johnson draws in the high single-digits or low double-digits. Green Party nominee Jill Stein generally draws in the low to middle single-digits. Relatively few voters are undecided. (See RealClearPolitics’ poll numbers here.)
State polls confirm the national surveys, with some normally Republican-leaning states up for grabs or leaning toward Clinton.
There’s much more at the link, and it’s all good for Clinton and very bad for Trump.
Girl reading, George Cochran Lambdin
Trump supporters are already doing what Romney supporters didn’t do until close to the election–claiming the polls are “skewed” against their candidate. Ed Kilgore at NY Magazine:
You may recall that, late in the campaign season in 2012, as polls began to show the presidential election slipping away from Mitt Romney, his supporters went into denial. First there was a noisy effort to claim the polls were “skewed” in Obama’s favor (most famously by Dean Chambers, who offered “unskewed polls” showing the Mittster cruising to victory). Then, at the very end, Republicans indulged in public-opinion mysticism, ignoring adverse polls and focusing on crowd sizes, yard-sign visibility, vague “mood of the country” assessments, and their own deeply perceptive guts.
It was easy to make fun of all this wishful thinking, but it was understandable given the timing. That Donald Trump’s supporters are already manifesting the same fingers-in-the-ears la-la-la-la-I-can’t-hear-you self-deception three months before Election Day is harder to accept.
But it’s happening. Trump himself has a habit of criticizing individual polls he doesn’t like. Some of his fans are getting more systematic about it. Radio-talk-show host Bill Mitchell offered this Zen-like observation on Twitter: “Imagine polls don’t exist. Show me evidence Hillary is winning?”
How can Trump be getting those huge crowds if he’s losing, huh? All Hillary is doing is going around the country talking to voters about issues. She can’t possibly be beating Donald Trump. But she is.
Harry Enten at FiveThirty Eight: The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly.
…the unskewers are back, again insisting that pollsters are “using” more Democrats than they should, and that the percentage of Democrats and Republicans should be equal, or that there should be more Republicans. They point to surveys like the recent one from ABC News and The Washington Post, in which 33 percent of registered voters identified as Democrats compared to 27 percent as Republicans. That poll found Hillary Clinton ahead by 8 percentage points.
But let’s say this plainly: The polls are not “skewed.” They weren’t in 2012, and they aren’t now.
The basic premise of the unskewers is wrong. Most pollsters don’t weight their results by party self-identification, which polls get by asking a question like “generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a….” Party identification is an attitude, not a demographic. There isn’t some national number from the government that tells us how many Democrats and Republicans there are in the country. Some states collect party registration data, but many states do not. Moreover, party registration is not the same thing as party identification. In a state like Kentucky, for example, there are a lot more registered Democrats than registered Republicans, but more voters identified as Republican in the 2014 election exit polls.
A person’s party identification can shift, and therefore the overall balance between parties does too. Democrats have typically had an advantage in self-identification — a 4 percentage point edge in 2000, a 7-point advantage in 2008 and a 6-point edge in 2012, according to exit polls — but they had no advantage in the 2004 election. Since 1952, however, almost every presidential election has featured a Democratic advantage in party identification.
Woman reading with mother-in-law’s tongue
Enten explains much more at the link, but here’s the point:
People…should stick to reality. Right now, Clinton is leading in almost every single national poll. She leads in both our polls-plus and polls-only forecasts. That doesn’t mean she will win. The polls have been off before, but no one knows by how much beforehand, or in which direction they’ll miss. For all their imperfection, the polls are a far better indicator than the conspiracy theories made up to convince people that Trump is ahead.
Hillary Clinton is going to be our next President–the first woman ever to hold the highest office in the land. It’s happening Sky Dancers. All we have to do is get through the next three months of media misogyny. We will overcome!
More stories to check out:
NYT: Donors for Bush, Kasich and Christie Are Turning to Clinton More Than to Trump.
NYT: 50 GOP Officials Warn Donald Trump Would Put Nation’s Security “At Risk.”
Public Policy Polling: Clinton leads in NC for first time since March.
Georgia Poll: Clinton Leads Trump by 7 Points.
WAVY (Virginia Beach): Congressman Scott Rigell resigns from local Republican party “following refusal to endorse Donald Trump.”
Brian Beutler at TNR: Donald Trump is now running Mitt Romney’s campaign plus racism.
San Jose Inside: Poll: Hillary Clinton Dominates Donald Trump in Silicon Valley.
WPTV West Palm Beach: Orlando shooter’s father attends Hillary Clinton rally in Kissimmee.
SevenDaysVt: Bernie Sanders Buys a Summer Home in North Hero
WaPo: Ivanka Trump champions working moms — except the ones who design her clothes.
NY Magazine: Report: ‘Multiple Women’ Taped Conversations With Roger Ailes.
NY Magazine: Fox News Host Andrea Tantaros Says She Was Taken Off the Air After Making Sexual-Harassment Claims Against Roger Ailes.
What else is happening? Please post your thoughts and links in the comment thread and have a terrific Tuesday!
peej
Carissa
ecocatwoman
mablue2
Mama Lopez
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skydancingguestblogger
Mona (aka Wonk the Vote)
Sky Dancing 
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Jon Favreau:
Things Still Matter. What to remember about the presidential election when Donald Trump’s comeback narrative begins.
https://theringer.com/what-to-remember-when-the-trump-comeback-begins-1db1c4698eef#.o02cv2r2y
that was awesome
I was just reading the Rothenberg and wow! Did you see Trump said “titties” instead of cities yesterday? That’s a Freudian slip!
Yup.
Make Titties Great Again!
Hahaha……he doesn’t treat women who are flat chested fair, and he doesn’t treat women who are breastfeeding fair, as a matter of fact he doesn’t treat any women fair. That’s why he doesn’t have any titties on his economic commission.
Hey! Babies have always thought they were Grrrrrreat!
Indeed, my babies did.
LOL is “titties” trending on Twitter yet?
Was last night!
Insert happy laugh here! Hillary’s secret technique!
She’s the stealth candidate alright😊
She’ll be president, we don’t any mistakes right now. Keep on the issues, keep going.
OT, but interesting:
So apparently Donald Trump doesn’t read books,. I think his co-author of “Art of the Deal” said he’s never seen him read a book or have books around? When asked about it Trump said he didn’t have time.
No wonder his empathy levels are so low.
Good morning ya’ll! BB, thank you for the lovely Vermeer at the top of this post. I just watched a Netflix offering called “Raiders of the Lost Art” the other night. It’s several short stories about art that has been stolen and the outcomes, etc. There are two segments on Vermeer and several more on other famous artists – all highly interesting.
So yeah – Ivanka took 8 whole days off with the birth of one of her children?? Great parenting there Ivanka – must run in the family. (Explains a lot.)
And Ailes should be in jail. There needs to be a law (if there isn’t already) against that behaviour. Can’t the EEOC fine Fox News or News Corp? Can’t say I have ever liked the women of Fox but good on them for defending themselves and taping him.
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/five-things-we-learned-about-presidential-campaign-week-n624486
Some analysis from NBC–for what it’s worth–but a few good points
Using my own “deeply perceptive gut” lol, I’ve been confident since last year that Hillary Clinton will be our next President. When there’s a huge primary field, the nuttiest, most inelectible candidate for the general always wins; they’re the only one who can draw enough votes out of the crowd. It’s one reason the Democrats try to discourage primary contenders in many races. The Sanders supporters have that point against the DNC. Pragmatically, it’s the way to win elections.
It’s almost time to start talking about Hillary Clinton winning Texas
http://www.businessinsider.com/can-hillary-clinton-win-texas-2016-8
A little while ago, someone on this blog stated that T-rump uses insults against Hillary that are actually more descriptive of him. It is so true!!! Knowing this helps me calm down whenever I read his comments. For example, he’s called her mentally unfit and temperamentally unfit……does he even realize that he is self-deceiving???!!!!!
Today Roger Stone said that he’d been in contact with Julian Assange and that there was going to be some release of info regarding the Clinton Foundation. I feel certain that Trump/Assange/Wikileaks/Putin will unload some steaming piles of bullshit in an effort to stop her if they can and I’m totally expecting an October surprise. But as I said yesterday I hope Hillary can create enough of a margin of support that she can withstand those hits when they come. Remember Swift Boat Veterans and continue to work hard to elect Hillary 2016
http://boingboing.net/2016/08/08/trump-disagrees-with-every-pos.html
Very good! Video showing Trump taking both sides of issues!
Good ol’ Bernie LIving it up with the one percent!!!
http://m.sevendaysvt.com/OffMessage/archives/2016/08/08/bernie-sanders-buys-a-summer-home-in-north-hero
It’s his third home, too. Did Bernie have a job before becoming a politician?
Nope.
Poor Bern, I hate to see him suffering like that having to rub elbows with the very people he loves to hate. But, at least now we have an explanation for why he refused to release his tax returns.
“Journalistic neutrality allegedly forces us to say that the race isn’t over until November”
Except that isn’t neutrality. Neutrality is reporting the facts without a bias.
The facts are Trump always had a difficult road to 270 EV–much more difficult than HRC or any Democratic Presidential nominee would have had. The facts are the current polls show him losing terribly. The facts are polls in formerly safe ‘red’ states are looking more purple.
Republican control of the Senate has been threatened this election because more Republican seats are up for re-election than Democratic seats, meaning there is more opportunity for the Dems to get both the Presidency and the Senate.
Reporting that, according to the numbers, Donald Trump has nearly no chance to be elected at this point isn’t bias. It’s a reporting of facts.
Claiming that the race is still a toss up is the bias in this case. Reporting that Trump is still seriously contending for the Presidency and is anything but a long shot is not journalistic integrity. It’s more of the crazy biased “both sides” reporting that has half the country believing they are a “silent majority” with the “real math”.
Wish you could preach that to CNN. They seem to think neutrality is making everything equivocal.
These Former GOP Officials Really Don’t Like Donald Trump
“He hasn’t a clue.”
http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/08/gop-epa-trump-climate
From back when republicans weren’t driven by lying for the Koch agenda of drowning government.
Even though I’ve been tres happy over the poll numbers, ya’ll are making me nervous. This country’s misogyny in 2008 registered deeply for me. The big swift boat guys and other knuckle draggers haven’t fired up yet. Assange hasn’t downloaded his crap. The liars haven’t come out in non-stop media political ads. A Clinton-hating attorney is representing families of Benghazi dead in a suit. Everything bad or wrong with this country will be ratcheted up to blame Clinton. I won’t celebrate until she has the numbers (270) in the bag. I do share your happiness in her lead, however.
I heard that Roger Stone is in contact with Assange. That can’t be good news.
Just when you thought George Zimmerman was the worst person on the planet:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2016/08/09/a-white-homeowner-called-911-to-report-hoodlums-outside-then-he-fatally-shot-a-black-man/?tid=sm_fb&utm_term=.e7161f13df47
Trump’s rise aided by same mainstream media failures that enabled Nixon’s dirty deeds
http://www.rawstory.com/2016/08/trumps-rise-aided-by-same-mainstream-media-failures-that-enabled-nixons-dirty-deeds/#.V6oG7s1JfB8.facebook
anybody know wtf trump said in wilmington? I’m seeing references on twitter that he called for hillary’s assassination or something like that.
Found it. This fucker is nuts.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/08/09/trump-appears-to-encourage-gun-owners-to-take-action-if-clinton-appoints-anti-gun-judges/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_trump-guns-4pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory
I like that, throughout the piece, the post reporter refers to Trump as “the mogul”. Excellent, enough of this everyman bullshit, he claims he’s a billionaire so let’s keep reminding people of that unless and until he proves otherwise.
What he said at this Wilmington rally is beyond the pale. He must leave the campaign now. He can pay a doctor to verify that he has a brain tumor, which no one will believe, for face-saving measures. Take him away, pleeeeeze!
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-2nd-amendment-folks-stop-clintons-supreme-court/story?id=41239648
He is promoting violence against Hillary Clinton. Called the Secret Service (202-406-5708) and let them know his message was lethal.
I am fascinated by the Vermeer painting of the woman in blue.
What to you guys see?
The dudes in my office all said, “pregnant lady” or “mother.”
The ladies just said, “a woman.”
Not sure why the difference in gut reaction, but it is curious.
Ron – I’m not sure about whether the sitter was pregnant, but many of his paintings of affluent women show them in smocks like that. The servers, like the milkmaid for instance have waisted dresses.
Vermeer apparently used lapiz lazuli to create a lot of the blues he used in his paintings. I learned this from teevee (lol) – (Netflix is offering “Raiders of the Lost Art” for streaming.)
I love Vermeer, thanks for the info.
I forget when it was, but sometime several centuries ago it was the fashion for women to wear abdominal padding — which to us would look like maternity wear. Fashion’s like that: trendy while it’s current and usually silly afterwards. Of course, the servants didn’t have the money or the leisure to dress fashionably.
Donald Trump suggests assassination of Hillary today as a way to stop her.
When is enough enough?
It will be interesting to see if anyone un-endorses him for this.
Also – do you think he is self-sabotaging? It’s obvious he doesn’t want the responsibility of the position.
18 U.S. Code § 879 – Threats against former Presidents and certain other persons
a) Whoever knowingly and willfully threatens to kill, kidnap, or inflict bodily harm upon—
(1) a former President or a member of the immediate family of a former President;
(2) a member of the immediate family of the President, the President-elect, the Vice President, or the Vice President-elect;
(3) a major candidate for the office of President or Vice President, or a member of the immediate family of such candidate; or
(4) a person protected by the Secret Service under section 3056(a)(6);
shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than 5 years, or both.
Oh but donchaknow it’s all OK if you later say you were “just joking.”
He’ll try that tomorrow or sooner. Wait for it in 3… 2… 1….
He’s been himself throughout this campaign, and at his rallies. This is who he is, no joke. But the media, pretends that he is innocence and joking.
Can anyone make out what the Trump Fanboys are yelling?
Nope.
I’ve had enough, and called all his buddies out on this, and they seem to get away with promoting violence against Hillary Clinton. He needs to get busted, and sit his ass in a cell all by himself.
My God. He needs to withdraw from the race.
Sady Doyle linked to this great twitter-essay on humor and it’s use to define what is acceptable to and defines the ingroup. It’s so good, I extracted it:
(Of course, humor also has other functions, but all that don’t-you-have-a-sense-of-humor–it-was-just-a-joke garbage is definitely in this class. It’s been applied against women since forever, but interestingly that’s the one 800-lb gorilla of an instance he doesn’t mention.)
Yup
Rolling Stone: What Trump said was stochastic terrorism.
Trump’s Assassination Dog Whistle Was Even Scarier Than You Think
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/trumps-assassination-dog-whistle-was-scarier-than-you-think-w433615
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https://twitter.com/Shakestweetz/status/763167975826391040
A great comment! Puts both aspects into perspective. I think that Trump should be arrested, but of course he has already put out a nonsensical interpretation of his very obvious statement.
I think a lot of women are experts in reading the body language of insecure misogynist egomaniacs. He was “just jokin” like the other women-haters are “just jokin” about rape “jokes.” This is the man who “joked” that he could shoot somebody and still get lots of votes, who wants to punch people who say bad things (trans. the truth) about him.
Gotta love Melissa – she is referring to this nasty piece of work by the Times:
http://bluenationreview.com/nyt-chastises-hillary-for-putting-her-hand-on-her-heart/
It’s not at all surprising Trump chose Wilmington, NC, to make such an incendiary statement. Wilmington is a beautiful port city with a vital, gracious downtown that one could spend weeks exploring. It also has a nasty historic and present day underside.
In 1898, black -men- exercised their recently granted right to vote, and elected a city government comprised mostly of, unsurprising, black -men- (no woman of any race could legally vote or hold office at that time). White men took exception to this and staged an armed coup that succeeded in forcing the black men out of office and killed many black people of both sexes in the process. The federal government declined to intervene; the white government became legal. Today, Wilmington has a popular city park named after one of the murderers, Hugh McCrae.
Wilmington city administrators and police carry on that proud tradition to this day. Trump could not have made his pitch to a more receptive audience.
And the park still hasn’t been re-named? That needs to be fixed.
Nope, not renamed. It’s just not been an issue for anyone in government there, and not for enough of the residents.
It’s amazing how scanty the coverage of the only successful armed coup in the U.S., is on-line. The New Hanover county library in Wilmington has an exhaustive section on this, with a good deal of original documentation and many photographs, but not even the UNC on-line sites seem to consider it very important.
Should note, I mis-typed that a majority of the elected city government were black men. The mayor and two-thirds of the elected city government were white, but any black men elected at all apparently justified the armed takeover to those who took part and those who supported it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilmington_insurrection_of_1898
Dayum, it does need to changed.
Certainly does, but it’s like the Confederate flag over the Capitol in South Carolina – not enough local support for changing it, though the question has been raised. http://www.starnewsonline.com/article/20150711/News/605044282
I misstated the make-up of the elected government that was replaced – it was 2/3 white, 1/3 black, but all equally odious non-Democrats. Still considered enough of a threat to have to be forcibly removed by the local “patriots”.
Wow. I hope NC goes blue in November – not sure it’s even in play but wouldn’t that be sweet?
It just may – things are looking very hopeful that way.
I’m a native North Carolinian and am not aware that Wilmington has carried on a 118 tradition much different than many other Southern states. I doubt that Trump knew this history. The comment, as I understand it, was off the cuff, not pointedly made for the Wilmington audience.
The family of Hugh MacCrea/Morton is very prominent in Wilmiington and the state and I doubt the name will be removed from the park.