Iowa Caucus Live Blog/Open Thread
Posted: February 1, 2016 Filed under: U.S. Politics | Tags: Iowa Caucuses 2016 252 Comments
Hey Sky Dancers!
Here’s a fresh thread to discuss the happenings in Iowa tonight. I guess no one really knows what will happen in Iowa, because the caucus system is kind of nuts–especially on the Democratic side.
Earlier today, Al Giordano, a political writer who was very successful in predicting the results of primaries in 2008 and who in 2007 wrote an article explaining how Barack Obama would beat Hillary Clinton for the 2008 nomination, released his predictions for tonight:
Republicans: Donald Trump 33%, Ted Cruz 26%, Marco Rubio 18%, Ben Carson 8% and no one else above 5%.
Democrats: Clinton 54%, Sanders 36%, O’Malley 10%
I summarized Giordano’s reasoning in the comment on the previous thread:
He says there are indications that Bernie’s on-the-ground organization is weak. See Yahoo story I posted above, his campaign mgr. knows little about the caucus system apparently.
Sanders’ support is concentrated in three counties that are home to universities. In Iowa you have to win delegates in every district; you can’t just win big in 2 or 3 and come in first. Hillary has people on the ground in every district.
If college students live in Iowa they have to return to their home districts to caucus. That may be difficult because they have classes today and there is a blizzard on the way.
More problems for Bernie. The turnout is not expected to be huge–it will be “normal” about like 2004. He has been trying to damp down expectations for days, so I think he knows he’s not going to win.
FiveThirtyEight is giving Hillary a 67% chance to win Iowa. Of course this is all speculation for now. As they say, it will all come down to turn out.
Here’s Nate Silver on how hard it is to poll Iowa.
It’s common for pundits to recite ass-covering phrases like “it all comes down to turnout” or “anything could happen” on the eve of a big election. If you’ve been following FiveThirtyEight over the years, you know it’s not our style to do that. Instead, we issue probabilistic forecasts, which can sometimes seem quite confident: We had Barack Obama as a 90.9 percent favorite to beat Mitt Romney on the eve of the 2012 general election, for example.
So let’s get a couple of things straight before the results start trickling in from Iowa tonight:
- It all comes down to turnout.
- Anything could happen.
All right, not absolutely anything could happen. Martin O’Malley is not going to win the Democratic caucuses. Donald Trump will probably not finish behind Carly Fiorina.
But could Marco Rubio win the Iowa caucuses despite not having led a single poll there? Sure. Rick Santorum did that exact thing four years ago.
Could Trump slip all the way to third place? Entirely plausible. But he could also get upwards of 40 percent of the vote and double his nearest rival’s total.
Ben Carson in second place? Rand Paul in third? The odds are against it — but equally strange things have happened in Iowa before.
Much more detail at the link.
I thought this was interesting from Joan Walsh at The Nation: Is Donald Trump Even Trying in Iowa? Walsh went to a Trump rally this morning, and found it underwhelming.
Waterloo, Iowa, Monday morning. Jeb Bush would have loved it. It may not tell us anything about caucus turnout—it was a workday morning, after all—but it was a strange moment nonetheless.
Trump acknowledged the low turnout early, calling the diminutive crowd “our very close friends,” then saying, “I’m gonna get out of here fast,” for his next event in Cedar Rapids. The crowd groaned, and Trump reassured them. “No, no, we’re gonna take care of you. Win, lose or draw, I love you all.” He gave a perfunctory 35-minute speech at what I can’t even call a rally.
Like an aging rock star, Trump did a medley of his hits. “We’ll build a big, beautiful wall.” “Common Core is gone.” “The Second Amendment is not going to be chipped away at.” “We’re gonna protect Christianity. You know Christianity is under siege folks, it’s under siege.”
According to Walsh there was zero organizing going on.
Remarkably, there was no evidence of organizing even at this caucus-day rally; the campaign was selling its famous gear in the lobby, but not a soul was attempting to identify voters and make sure they know where their caucus site is.
I met Trump supporters who promised to caucus nonetheless. Michele Foley, an independent Mary Kay director, says she’s never caucused before but she will tonight for Trump. “I’m tired of where the country is going. I’m voting to take the country back, I’m not happy with anything Obama has done.” Still, Foley hasn’t been contacted by the campaign; she went to the website herself and figured out the caucus rules and where to show up at 7.
Is it possible Trump doesn’t really want to win?
Bernie Sanders has been trying to tamp down his supporters’ expectation for tonight. You have to wonder what his internal polls look like. He has also been saying he doesn’t expect a big turnout and that is what he would need to win.
Iowa Starting Line: Is The Sanders Campaign Prepping A “Blame Iowa” Strategy In Case Of A Loss?
With the most recent Des Moines Register poll showing Sanders still three points back from Clinton, and the possibility that Sanders’ support is too heavily concentrated in certain precincts (problematic since each has a set number of delegates), there seems to be growing concern among Sanders supporters that he’ll come up short in his upset bid in Iowa. That seems to have brought forward a series of Sanders-pushed stories that suggest a trend in which the campaign may try to undermine the legitimacy of the results.
The most recent attempt came last night when Sanders campaign manager Jeff Weaver spun a sinister-sounding story to Yahoo News about Clinton staffers possibly serving as precinct captains or volunteer leaders, based on a letter a Sanders supporter received. Weaver suggested it could mean that Clinton is “infiltrating the caucuses with out-of-state paid staffers,” and possibly even try to get counted in the caucus.
That argument, however, is utterly ridiculous. Weaver’s so-called proof was a letter telling a voter the precinct leader for their caucus was a paid staffer from Clinton’s campaign. This is actually a regular practice by all campaigns. In certain precincts where they may not have identified a precinct captain, they’ll send a staffer there to organize the room or, at the very least, greet supporters, but not to caucus themselves. And in this situation the Clinton staffer was simply a placeholder when the mailer went out – they later identified a local precinct captain.
Weaver claimed to not know enough about caucus rules to know whether this was allowed or not. Weaver knows the rules. He’s just hoping enough journalists and those outside Iowa don’t so that they’ll think something sounds fishy….
A separate story pushed by a top Sanders aide last week, however, veered into borderline tin-foil hat conspiracy theory. In an interview with MSNBC, Sanders’ top Iowa adviser Pete D’Alessandro suggested that Microsoft, which developed the caucus reporting software this year, might somehow intentionally fabricate the results to give Clinton a win. If you are looking for a software that you can do pdf files online, visit www.sodapdf.com/sign-pdf/.
“You’d have to ask yourself why they’d want to give something like that away for free,” D’Alessandro told MSNBCon suspicions they had about Microsoft’s involvement in the caucus process. Other Sanders aides were said to have brought up concerns about Microsoft employees who have donated to Clinton in the past.
That’s quite the accusation. The idea that Microsoft that would risk its reputation in a massive way by fraudulently skewing the most important early state result is pure imagination. It would also be a surprising amount of forethought for Microsoft, considering they started talks for the caucus reporting job about six months before Sanders announced his campaign.
You can get live updates at The New York Times and The LA Times, and of course Twitter is a great source of information.
Where are you following the story? What are you hearing? Let us know your thoughts in the comment thread. I for one am psyched up!
peej
Carissa
bostonboomer
ecocatwoman
mablue2
peggysue22
quixote
skydancingguestblogger
Mona (aka Wonk the Vote)
Sky Dancing 
Here’s hoping Hillary wins big!
Yes!
A glorious yes Riverbird.
I’ll second that!
The woman who ran for president in 2016, and won, Hillary Rodham Clinton.
I hope you’re right, but let’s not start celebrating until the election is over.
Here’s hoping!
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Hello Skydancers! The moment we’ve been waiting for is finally here. Happy Iowa Caucus, and may the best woman win! (Sorry Carly – that ain’t you :-))
Hi Madamab!
Hey BB!! Fingers crossed….
Hi! Good to see you!
Nice to see you, madamab. It is the moment we’ve been waiting for. I expected her to win Iowa but damn it feels good.
Amen, Janicen!!
waves Hi there!
Cruz and Trump are neck and neck. Rubio is in a distant 3rd. One percent
Clinton is way ahead with 4% in.
Clinton 52 and Sanders 46
Just google Iowa caucus for %.
What channel are you watching?
MSNBC
Keeping my eyes on Rubio………I think he’ll come up to second place.
That would be shocking.
Don’t know if he’ll do it here, but down the road, he might.
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The entrance polls were almost exactly what Giordano predicted.
I am on CNN, and wow, they are clapping, and shouting, yay, Hillary.
Let’s get happy, and stay happy!
Go home Carly Fiorina………1%……….
Hillary won in Des Moines! That’s Bernie territory.
Super.
I’m a little shocked.
Trump is doing better than I would have expected.
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Well, that was a little premature.
Dana Bash looks like she’s about to cry.
She was really for Bernie, and said he stayed on track. Is that why?
I don’t know.
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You might be right, Fannie. Giordano is saying Cruz could well fall behind Rubio. Trump is beating Cruz in the Evangelical vote.
I don’t have TV to watch this, so I’m using the WAPO map. Lucas Co is 100% in with Clinton 60%, Sanders 40%, O’Malley 0%
Democratic results by county as they are reported:
https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/state
Good site, thanks.
Johnson County ( Univ. of Iowa ) with 24% reporting:
Sanders 57.4%
Clinton 42.6%
Story County ( Iowa State ) with 32% reporting:
Clinton 51.4%
Sanders 48.6%
Tell you what, I hope this isn’t like the last time, and we have to wait days to figure it all out.
This is a better site to check the result for the Dems. The yakkers on TV just bother the hell out of me: https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/state
I just hate the IA caucus and the fact that a state where the Dems electorate is 92% white gets to be this important.
Thank you mablue2
It says the reporting generally is 42.5 % and Clinton is ahead at 51%
Hillary seems to be coming out on top in all the college towns so far.
You know I am not worried about Hillary, but damn I want to see Trump go down tonight.
Wow, Rubio took on Ankley, final vote I think
Anderson screwed up and said 50% vote in for republicans……….NOT, it is 25%
In Clinton 54% reporting and Scott Co 25% reporting Sanders just overtook Clinton.
Audubon Co 100%, Clinton.
Taylor Co 100% Clinton
Louisa Co 100% Clinton
Lucas Co 100% Clinton
Super roofingbird! Luv those supporters.
No calls for Sanders yet.
Right now Cruz is on top.
In Allamakee Co Clinton just overtook Sanders
We need to realize that this will be spun as a win for Bernie no matter how much Hillary wins by.
Yes. No doubt about that.
Yes, I’m sure it will.
Clinton is still 51% to Sanders 48%, O’Malley 0%
I am listening to Anderson Cooper, and really got pissed off with Van Jones, saying if Elizabeth Warren were in the race, Hillary would be gone. WTF? They go on talking about how tricky the math is, horsehit, it’s bad math for Bernie!
Adams Co 100% Clinton
Wayne 100% Clinton
Monona 100% Clinton
How many counties do they have?
99 counties roof.
thanks, yeah we have a way to go.
Some Co got taken off the board here. I’m, only showing 7
I’m trying to watch King and his board, he drives me nuts.
Rubio, highest he has been in any poll….moving on up.
Buchanan 100% Clinton
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Awe, she’s part of history, and the best smile evah.
Sanders is inching up, Clinton 51%, Sanders 49%, O”Malley1%. Clinton needs to have enough delegates that she doesn’t have to worry about O’Malley’s up for grabs.
O’Malley isn’t likely to get any delegates, is he? They are dividing up his voters at each caucus from what I can tell on TV.
I hope not but at this rate 1 -2 wouldn’t help.
Hey Wolf, it’s not early yet, it’s 2/3 over. Damn man.
Greene Co 100% Clinton
I think this is the end for O’Malley. What’s the point? 1%, no money in the bank, in fact he’s in debt.
I wish he would drop out before Wednesday night. I don’t want to have to watch him in another debate.
Agreed.
You were right BB…………O’Malley is OUT tonight.
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Woodbury Co . Clinton overtook Sanders at 44%
Silver saying Cruz is on track to win.
yeah Wapo is showing him at 28% to Trump 25%,and Rubio 22%
9 counties are within 1% of each other at around 73% reporting
Davis Co 100% Sanders
Harrison 100% Sanders
Rubio is up 21%
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Yay, from one Walsh to another!
Someone voted uncommitted, I have no idea what that means.
Sioux Co 100% Sanders
Om.
Bernie has a big lead in Jefferson County, home of Maharishi University of Management.
lol
Trump caused the record turnout for GOP……………Rubio is now 22%
Emmett 100% Clinton
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Marion co 100% Clinton
Sanders is only doing slightly better than Hillary in the College areas. Giordano says that’s “brutal for him.”
Cherokee co 100% Sanders
CNN says O’Malley will suspend his campaign as of tonight.
You nailed it BB.
Gee, I’m going to miss Marty. Will he be shirtless and playing the guitar when he drops out?
Hahahah. Take it all off.
4 counties are still tied.
O’ Brian Co 100% clinton
Grundy 100% Sanders
I don’t like how Sanders is ahead in the Cedar Rapids and Davenport area, those are large populations
Also Council Bluffs
Hamilton co 100% clinton
Floyd Co 100% Clinton
Ida Co 100% Clinton. It’s still 50% Clinton, Sanders 49% overall.
Guthrie Co 100% Clinton
Delaware Co 100% Clinton
How many more white Christian states are they going to run in?
80.6% reporting Dems, 81.1% reporting Repugs with Cruz still at 285 to Trumps 24 and Rubio came up one to 23%
Carroll Co 100% Clinton
Giordano saying Clinton underperformed and this will be seen as a moral victory for Bernie. Well, I expected that . . . .
Yep, we all know that these two states, Iowa, and New Hampshire are easier for Sanders, he ain’t seen nothing yet.
I wonder if Trump will be showing up at the next debate, with Cruz on one side, and Rubio on the other?………………….that’s some hot shit right there.
I think Donald Trump will start going after Rubio tomorrow morning.
You can take that to the bank.
After he loses Iowa to Cruz?
So Cruz beat Trump. And Hillary barely beat Sanders. Ugh.
I was thinking flip, but Bernie’s going to cry, cause she’ll get more delegates.
Yep! Although this is Sanders’s 3rd best state (again demographics), the press is going to bury Hillary for the next coup0le of days.
Always do that, but she threw a knock out to Sanders tonight.
Of course, and wait until she loses in New Hampshire. But it is just media tactics. When there are primaries in big states with various ethnicities, she will do far better. If she wins Iowa, that is good, no matter what the media tries to make of it. I did think that this would be close, and of course the media will spin it against Hillary, what else is new? But the terrain is vastly better for her once we get past the New Hampshire primary.
She won, and on to NH…………I’ll never forget 2008, NH, I was so very sick, in bed, and watching when she won, I jumped up and said, my god for the first time in my life, women are a coalition, and we have power at the polls. Never ever forget that.
How is Trump going to deal with losing? Interesting.
Moral victory in a caucus state. Doesn’t do him any good when it gets to real primaries outside of New Hampshire.
That’s what I’m thinking too. Hey, good news, Huckabee drops OUT! Hell yeah.
They are falling like flies.
Cruz declared victory…………Hillary declared victory!
And Huckabee and OMalley are quitting.
Hillary still has votes out in Des Moines where she is strong.
Palo Alto Co 100% Clinton. Still 50-49% Who called it?
Clayton and Worth 100% Sanders
Van Jones just said he was neutral. I laughed out loud.
That’s a riot.
Really, he’s pissed me off more than one way.
Hillary should just skip NH and go down and campaign in South Carolina.
I think the GOP candidate I can stand the least is Rubio. The guy is such a phony. Ugh!
He is that………but Cruz is the devil.
I agree. Cruz is truly frightening.
His fake sincerity is nauseating. Did you know his immigrant father was a bartender and his mother was a maid? Neither did I. One learns something new every day.
He’s horrible! Worse than Trump IMO.
Marco Rubio is a horrible speaker. He reminds me of Wally Cleaver running for high school class president except Wally was more likable.
Trump on CNN
It’s 50-50 Clinton Trump according to Wapo
Chickasaw Co 100% Clinton
Trump says he loves the people of Iowa. Congratulates “Ted” on his victory. Sounds only slightly sarcastic.
Special Request…………….Beata give us a song, always like your selection!
Onward we go!
Yup, that’s a good one. I have his Chronicles CD in my car, and luv, luv, luv him. Arc of a Diver, my favorite. He was into it all, piano, guitar, drums, and played with the best, Clapton, and Ginger Baker, and my favorite Traffic.
Good selection Beata……..luv it.
Jones, Union, Buena Vista, Montgomery Co Sanders
Everybody giving victory speech……….except Trump.
I hate the caucus system. Usually the turnout is less than 5% of the voters, not to mention you don’t count if you’re out of the area, have to work, can’t get childcare/transportation, or are sick. The results get played all out of proportion to what’s important in the general election.
Agree. It sucks. I was really hoping Hillary will beat expectations and maybe affect NH. Not likely now until the debate influences people or Bernie goes really negative.
That was very disappointing. This actually is a win for Bernie.
The Berniebros will be insufferable. But just wait until the next medium-sized non-caucus state.
The margin appears to be going back toward Hillary now.
She’s ahead by a point, grab my shoulder and tell me so.
No say it isn’t so. I’ve been so afraid to look in.
I think it is – we know that the demographics benefited Sanders in Iowa, but the average voter won’t care and will only see an underdog candidate almost beating the heavy favorite.
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Agree. It’s not anything close to the overwhelming flood of new voters he was predicting. I don’t think he’ll do well in a voting primary.
50.1 – 49.3 Hillary. Polk County still coming in.
Oh no. Sanders wants to see the raw data. Thinks he won.
He must’ve gotten a phone call from Karl Rove.
I thought he was already in bed. Yeah, they woke him up for a speech. Fun filled 10 minutes of gabbing.
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Yeah, I heard that. He’s still smarting over losing NH to her, I guess.
Axelrod a misogynist much?
Had to fix dinner for the gang, but right now Wapo says its 50-50 655 to 652
CNN:
Clinton 49.8%
Sanders 49.6%
93% of precincts reporting
50-50 but Clinton 657-653
Council Bluffs Cedar Rapids and Davenport all still Sanders but in contention.
Sanders will probably get Cedar Rapids. It’s 52-47
I think she is going to get cheated.
They will keep playing with the number until she is behind.
50-50, 661Clinton/657 Sanders
50-50, 663-660, I hate this
Here we go (Bernie), a political revolution……..let me put that in my Hope Chest.
664-661
I am disappointed. I can’t believe that many people really think Sanders would be a better Prez.
Must remind self that caucus goers are about 2%-4% of the voting public.
Clinton just overtook in Poweshiek Co at 90%
Sanders overtook in Cerro Gordo at 96.2 %
Pottawamie co 100% Sanders, that’s Council Bluffs 665-662
Clinto got Debuque and Humbolt 667-663
23 counties leaning Clinton 14 leaning Sanders, 2 ties
13 leaning Sanders 667-664
Hillary is still leading in Polk County ( Des Moines ) 53.5% to 45.7% with 87% reporting.
I think when all the Polk County precincts are counted, they will give Hillary the win.
Clearly standing in groups and trying to convince someone to come to your side takes more time than standing in one group and holding up your hand.
Clinton Got Bremer 668-665
Calhoun Co tied at 50-50
669-666 11 counties still leaning Sanders, 22 Clinton one tie
Clinton 670-666
672-668, Scott Co went Sanders
Shit. Did that break tie?
No oddly
There is a series of graphics at the NYTs
Iowa Caucus Results – Election 2016 – NYTimes.com
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/iowa
Check out the bottom graphic it shows which counties voted for Clinton in 08 and who the are voting for today. Interesting enough it is sanders.
That is really weird.
Checked — right now there isn’t a whole lot of difference. Hmmm.
676-672 still 50-50
678-674
681-677
682-678 some counties are still in the 80’s on reporting.
Polk Co 53-46% in favor of Clinton, so that’s still good.
Linn Co with Cedar Rapids 52-47 for Sanders
It’s those socialist Czechs in Cedar Rapids!
It’s interesting to see how differently the county spread was between Dems and repubs.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics-live/liveblog/iowa-caucuses-live-blog-presidential-nominating-contest-kicks-off/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_iowa-liveblog-610pm%3Aliveblog%2Fpromo#4c8f3103-d2d6-4816-ace0-7e69de36f0ab
8 counties leaning Sanders, 22 leaning Clinton one tie
I’m hopeful it’s a good thing that more of Clinton’s are slow counting. 683-680
Me too. Hope we can keep a few ahead.
688-685 Poweshiek overtaken and won by Sanders, Clinton wins Appanoose
7 counties leaning Sanders 14 leaning Clinton. Decatur was tied but went to Clinton. 689-686 and 50-50
691-688
693-691 This is grinding.
Urrrrgh.
At least no “overwhelming” turnout for Sanders.
Night all. Tomorrow, onward!
Nite Luna
Except I keep checking one more time…
Thanks for your updates.
Bleah, off to the salt mines tomorrow so I’d best really head to bed.
4 counties leaning Sanders, 10 counties leaning Clinton.
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2016/feb/01/iowa-caucus-vote-live-donald-trump-ted-cruz-bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-2016
LOL!
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2016/feb/01/iowa-caucus-vote-live-donald-trump-ted-cruz-bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-2016
694-692
696-693
apparently Buena Vista changed to a tie. Henry also tied. So that’s 3 tied counties at 100%
4 Counties leaning Sanders 6 counties leaning Clinton.
Sorry, 5 counties Clinton.
Fremont is still only reporting 80%. If it gets down to1 county it could be all night.
Roofingbird, thank you for all the efforts. It sounds like some strange things might be going on at the very end, with these Hillary leading counties switching at the last minute, while there are staffing issues.
Yeah, something is up. Polk Co. has been at 53 Clinton 46 Sanders with 98.9% reporting for some time. It can’t be that hard to come up with another 1.1%
Thanks, William. The blizzard is supposed to hit around 5 there. I would think the counters would want out before then. Or maybe it doesn’t fit the news cycle? I can’t see that a single remaining county has increased it’s reporting.
Sanders count is corrected for some reason. Maybe it was the reassigned tie. 696-692
Perry Mason comes on in a few minutes. I can stay awake long enough to check the map for a while. However, I think whoever is up first in the morning is going to have the news. No change.
All counties are in except Polk. Clinton 700 Sanders 695. 50-50%
Polk is 99.4% with Clinton 53% and Sanders 46%.
there is still 1 county out on the Republican side with Rubio in the lead. I think it might create a tie between Rubio and Trump.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/latest-candidates-reflect-hours-ahead-iowa-caucuses-36637568
Reports of this: http://www.c-span.org/video/?c4578575/clinton-voter-fraud-polk-county-iowa-caucus
I’m going to bed now. I think Polk has 9 delegates. It looks like O’Malley gets 1. I think Sanders and Clinton will each get 4. That will leave the final at 704-699 delegates and O’Malley 9. Both groups will have to lobby O’Malley’s freed delegates hard in order to finalize a win.