Monday Reads
Posted: March 24, 2014 Filed under: morning reads 41 Comments
Good Morning!!
Here are a few things the little birds told us today!
Nate Silver gives the Republican Party a 60% chance of recapturing the senate. Talk about a reason to be depressed!
When FiveThirtyEight last issued a U.S. Senate forecast — way back in July — we concluded the race for Senate control was a toss-up. That was a little ahead of the conventional wisdom at the time, which characterized the Democrats as vulnerable but more likely than not to retain the chamber.
Our new forecast goes a half-step further: We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber. The Democrats’ position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President Obama’s approval ratings down to 42 or 43 percent from an average of about 45 percent before. Furthermore, as compared with 2010 or 2012, the GOP has done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions.
As always, we encourage you to read this analysis with some caution. Republicans have great opportunities in a number of states, but only in West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana and Arkansas do we rate the races as clearly leaning their way. Republicans will also have to win at least two toss-up races, perhaps in Alaska, North Carolina or Michigan, or to convert states such as New Hampshire into that category. And they’ll have to avoid taking losses of their own in Georgia and Kentucky, where the fundamentals favor them but recent polls show extremely competitive races.
And what does everyone think about this? First up, Paul Krugman calls it “Tarnished Silver”.
It’s not the reliance on data; numbers can be good, and can even be revelatory. But data never tell a story on their own. They need to be viewed through the lens of some kind of model, and it’s very important to do your best to get a good model. And that usually means turning to experts in whatever field you’re addressing.
Unfortunately, Silver seems to have taken the wrong lesson from his election-forecasting success. In that case, he pitted his statistical approach against campaign-narrative pundits, who turned out to know approximately nothing. What he seems to have concluded is that there are no experts anywhere, that a smart data analyst can and should ignore all that.
But not all fields are like that — in fact, even political analysis isn’t like that, if you talk to political scientists instead of political reporters. So, for example, before glancing at some correlation and asserting causation, you really should talk to the researchers.
Similarly, climate science has been developed by many careful researchers who are every bit as good at data analysis as Silver, and know the physics too, so ignoring them and hiring a known irresponsible skeptic to cover the field is a very good way to discredit your enterprise. Economists work hard on the data; on the whole you’re going to do better by tracking their research than by trying to roll your own, and you should be very wary if your analysis runs counter to what a lot of professionals say.
Then, there are the blogsters with their analyses. This one from Politicususa takes an ABC interview with Silver to task.
ABC’s biased interview didn’t quite match up with what Silver wrote about his own numbers:
Our new forecast goes a half-step further: We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber.
…
As always, we encourage you to read this analysis with some caution. Republicans have great opportunities in a number of states, but only in West Virginia, South Dakota, Montana and Arkansas do we rate the races as clearly leaning their way. Republicans will also have to win at least two toss-up races, perhaps in Alaska, North Carolina or Michigan, or to convert states such as New Hampshire into that category. And they’ll have to avoid taking losses of their own in Georgia and Kentucky, where the fundamentals favor them but recent polls show extremely competitive races.
…
So our forecast might be thought of as a Republican gain of six seats — plus or minus five. The balance has shifted slightly toward the GOP. But it wouldn’t take much for it to revert to the Democrats, nor for this year to develop into a Republican rout along the lines of 2010.
Right now, Nate Silver is giving Mitch McConnell a 75% chance of retaining his Senate seat. These odds are much, much too high in McConnell’s favor. The problem with using a similar model as what is used to successful presidential races is that statewide races are more volatile. There is also less data available. Pollsters poll Senate races less. With less data, Silver’s modeling could become less reliable.
Silver seems to think that Obama’s low approval rating in Kentucky tilts the balance towards McConnell. The reality is that Obama’s approval rating is higher than McConnell’s in the state.
What Republican Jon Karl tried to sell as a slam dunk Republican takeover of the Senate is really much more of a 50/50 chance, and if Republicans lose in either or both Kentucky and Georgia, they will not be retaking the Senate. What Silver wrote was actually more accurate that the misleading interview that ABC edited and packaged.
It is fair to ask if Nate Silver is being set up by the same mainstream media that relies on the partisan analysis that Silver criticizes. If Republicans lose the Senate, pro-Republican journalists such as Karl will turn around and use their defeat to attack Silver’s credibility in 2016. As time goes on, and nation gets closer to Election Day, the picture will become clearer. I suspect that if Democrats continue to have success in Kentucky and Georgia, Silver’s odds will change.
Republicans like Jon Karl are warping Nate Silver’s initial projection to depress Democratic turnout. The pro-Republican bias was obvious in this interview, and it will be interesting to see if the media ignores Silver if his projection shifts more towards the Democrats.
This is the ABC interview that’s disturbing should you care to watch.
The showdown will take place Tuesday when the Supreme Court hears arguments on two consolidated challenges to the Affordable Care Act. The owners of Hobby Lobby, a chain of arts-and-crafts stores, and Conestoga Wood Specialties, a cabinetmaker, want to be exempted from the sound requirement that employer health plans cover without a co-payment all birth control methods and services approved by the Food and Drug Administration.
These companies are not religious organizations, nor are they affiliated with religious organizations. But the owners say they are victims of an assault on religious liberty because they personally disapprove of certain contraceptives. They are wrong, and the Supreme Court’s task is to issue a decisive ruling saying so. The real threat to religious liberty comes from the owners trying to impose their religious beliefs on thousands of employees.
The legal question is whether the contraception coverage rule violates the Religious Freedom Restoration Act of 1993, which says government may not “substantially burden a person’s free exercise of religion” unless the burden is necessary to further a “compelling government interest” and does so by “the least restrictive means.”
There are several reasons why the court should find that the law does not apply, starting with the fact that secular, for-profit corporations are not “persons” capable of prayer or other religious behavior, which is a quintessentially human activity. Also, as an amicus brief filed by corporate law scholars persuasively argues, granting the religious exemption to the owners would mean allowing shareholders to pass their religious values to the corporation. The fundamental principle of corporate law is a corporation’s existence as a legal entity with rights and obligations separate from those of its shareholders.
The claim that the contraception coverage rules put a “substantial burden” on religious exercise is very weak. The companies’ owners remain free to worship as they choose and to argue (incorrectly) as much as they want that some of the contraceptive drugs and devices on the F.D.A.’s list actually induce abortions. If an employee decides to use an insurance plan for such contraceptives, that would be a personal decision. It does not burden religious exercise.
This is undoubtedly one of the most horrifying stories about religious overreach into women’s reproductive rights and health. What do 
religious nuts elected to office know about medicine and women’s anatomy? Absolutely nothing.
Rennie Gibbs’s daughter, Samiya, was a month premature when she simultaneously entered the world and left it, never taking a breath. To experts who later examined the medical record, the stillborn infant’s most likely cause of death was also the most obvious: the umbilical cord wrapped around her neck.
But within days of Samiya’s delivery in November 2006, Steven Hayne, Mississippi’s de facto medical examiner at the time, came to a different conclusion. Autopsy tests had turned up traces of a cocaine byproduct in Samiya’s blood, and Hayne declared her death a homicide, caused by “cocaine toxicity.”
In early 2007, a Lowndes County grand jury indicted Gibbs, a 16-year-old black teen, for “depraved heart murder” — defined under Mississippi law as an act “eminently dangerous to others…regardless of human life.” By smoking crack during her pregnancy, the indictment said, Gibbs had “unlawfully, willfully, and feloniously” caused the death of her baby. The maximum sentence: life in prison.
Seven years and much legal wrangling later, Gibbs could finally go on trial this spring — part of a wave of “fetal harm” cases across the country in recent years that pit the rights of the mother against what lawmakers, health care workers, prosecutors, judges, jurors, and others view as the rights of the unborn child.
A judge is said to be likely to decide this week if the case should move forward or be dismissed. Assuming it continues, whether Gibbs becomes the first woman ever convicted by a Mississippi jury for the loss of her pregnancy could turn on a fundamental question that has received surprisingly little scrutiny so far by the courts: Is there scientific proof that cocaine can cause lasting damage to a child exposed in the womb, or are the conclusions reached by Hayne and prosecutors based on faulty analysis and junk science?
Creationism’s days are numbered. “Cosmos” frightens the conservatives more than anything has in a very long time. Every day their numbers grow smaller and their grasp on America becomes weaker.
The time is now for a scientifically literate America to return, for scientific innovations to flow out of our borders and spread around the world. We can no longer take a backseat to the world of science and must return once again to the driver’s seat.
So, we continue to have the same problems with the current freaks running the Republican Party. Choose your poison: religion or greed.
Either way, I’m voting this fall. I don’t intend to sit this one out.
What’s on your blogging and reading list today?
peej
Carissa
bostonboomer
ecocatwoman
mablue2
peggysue22
quixote
skydancingguestblogger
Mona (aka Wonk the Vote)
Sky Dancing 
The distinct possibility that the GOP could very well end up ruling both Houses is what leads me to take an LOA from taking an active part in the dialogue of today’s politics.
One can only imagine what this will look like. A total stranglehold on women’s rights. The overturn of the ACA. Less aid to those living near or below the poverty line. More disintegration of the infrastructure. A refusal to consider climate change because someone read it in the bible (or tea leaves). Defunding of education. A return to the Bush tax cuts where only the rich and powerful will benefit. Deregulation of every industry including food and water.
I am unable to understand the minds of the American public who would put these people in a place of power that will surely destroy whatever “freedoms” we now enjoy.
Too deplorable to even consider.
Yes, it scares the shit outta me too…I know what living with a double GOP majority is like down here in our state. It fucking sucks. The thought of what it can do to the country is beyond nightmares.
And you know that once they are in it is almost impossible to get rid of them.
Gerrymandering along with a GOP legislature have made it almost impossible to outvote them when they keep changing voter registration laws to suit their purposes and no one to stop them.
We are looking at a generation who will be deeply engraved in “law making” and changing the playing field into something we though we had overcome.
No one is “safe” from religious fanatics who seem to be in charge in so many states these days and even though I come from one that is considered “liberal” I have no doubt it could happen here as well if the federal government manages to be taken over by lunatics waving a bible in one hand and waving fistfuls of cash in another.
Could it happen here? You bet since it is already creeping through enough states now that it is difficult to overlook.
Yes, it really is something to worry about.
To be honest, I think it’s a good thing. Democrats, like all people, get easily complacent. The thought of continued rule by the Republican fascists will light a fire under Democrats and remind us all that we need to not just vote, but pay a visit to party and candidate offices and volunteer for some phone banking or canvassing if our health allows. A couple hours worth of volunteer time from enough Democrats will swing things our way. It’s all about the ground game. Let’s get fired up.
This is the key. No Quitting now!
digby @digby56 18s
How the right works together to ruin everything http://tinyurl.com/obnnkbc
http://rhrealitycheck.org/article/2014/03/24/free-market-groups-invisible-hand-hobby-lobby-case/
Here’s a little something to feel good about, election wise. A lot of ink has been spilled in the Texas press about dropoff in Dem primary turnout of less than 10% over 2010. Less money was spent on primary turnout efforts than in 2010 because the tops of the ticket wasn’t really contested. I’m not going to make a big deal out of this and I really don’t think primary turnout levels are predictive but we should be consistent anyway.
Multiple Republicans spent tens of millions of dollars combined to push people to the polls. The whole Ted Nugent affair was at least partly about juicing turnout for Greg Abbott. For the first time since 2002 there will be mass turnover in statewide offices, and for the first time ever there were multiple high-profile statewide Republican primaries. And in the end, turnout declined by almost 15% from 2010. You’d think that might be worth mentioning.
Looks like something big is going on with the plane…the plane:
Malaysian Prime Minister to speak on search for Flight 370 – CNN.com
they found it…
Malaysian airliner’s last position over Indian Ocean, PM says – CNN.com
PM: Malaysian plane crashed in Indian Ocean, no survivors
susie madrak» Blog Archive » Creepy patriarchal bullshit This is some fucked up shit too….I remember reading about this a couple years ago, but it looks like it is catching on.
Got a feeling we may be going back to the days when the marital sheets were confiscated after the wedding night to ensure that yes indeed, the bride was a virgin!
Here is a Republican State Senator from MASS and his delightful bit of legislation:
http://assholeoftheday.us/post/80394817314/richard-ross-asshole-of-the-day-for-march-22
I have to be honest I never heard of this guy! You would think he would be a “stand out” in MA with those “friendly” views but no.
I’m no longer sure I don’t believe in the Mad Hatter. These people are making it easier.
I never heard of him either, but I can guarantee that a law like that isn’t going to pass here.
Hey, he forgot to legislate masturbation too!
I thought Purity Balls was one of the contestants on Ru Paul’s Drag race!
I just spit my coffee all over the screen!
ditto!
And Jesus, you know, was all for temporal royalty and storing up gold rings here on earth. /s
Creepy….and why does the whole concept smack of hidden incest to me?
It’s totally about incest and not that hidden. It’s sick. It’s about men owning women and children and controlling their sexuality.
That came to mind too.
and Bobby Jindal once again proves what he’s good at: Lies and Hypocrisy!!!
Bobby Jindal: President Obama’s higher ed program will hurt low income, minority students
http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2014/03/bobby_jindal_president_obamas.html#incart_river
Every day is Opposite Day for “Bobby”.
Had an uneasy night with vague dreams about smothering in mud…. The N Fork Stilly mudslide covered a minor rural highway that I and many others drive on fairly often in the summer to get to hiking and climbing areas in the mountains. The only good news is that the debris dam breakup doesn’t look catastrophic.
http://seattletimes.com/text/2023210830.html
Wow. That does not sound good. I am going to call Dr daughter tonight.
Dak, I beieve Dr. daughter is out of danger. Mount Vernon is far enough away from where this mudslide occurred., and in a different drainage system entirely.
The Stilly flows into the Puget Sound just south of Stanwood, which is just at Hwy 532 on a map. Mt. Vernon is next to the Skagit River. The watersheds are separated by high hills/ridges.
I was wondering if her hospital was getting any overflow. BTW, my son in law will be in Seattle in a few weeks to start his fellowship in radiology at the UW med center.
I know they airlifted several patients to Harborview in Seattle, which is our top trauma center. Certainly the local hospitals would be getting the less seriously injured people.
Your s-i-l probably be at the UW Medical Center, main campus. It’s a great place to do a fellowship. What area of radiology? Although in the clinic I practice in now I don’t have much call for ordering scans other than brain and spinal MRIs. There’s some neat research going on in all areas.
I am not sure of his research interests ATM. My daughter loves surgery and patients. He wants to teach and do research in that field but not sure what specific area.
It’s a real disaster. I really hope casualties are a minimum.
I saw some video tonight on the Weather Channel and it looked horrible.
If that damn breaks I hope people down of it have been packing it up and out of there.
An even scarier landslide is the Hope Slide in southern British Columbia, which is just off what is now a major highway. It occurred in 1965, covered 1.9 miles in width to a depth of over 250 ft. It was in a very rural area (then), and amazingly only 4 people died. But I really hate driving by it!
http://www.empr.gov.bc.ca/Mining/Geoscience/SurficialGeologyandHazards/Landslides/Pages/default.aspx
Teh Megan, Matt, And Ezra Show
http://www.sadlyno.com/archives/7065.html
Damn, this is funny.
http://crooksandliars.com/2014/03/chief-justice-roberts-used-slavery-era
Chief Justice Roberts Used Slavery-Era Principles To Gut The Voting Rights Act
Study: Oil from Deepwater Horizon oil spill (4M barrels) caused deformities in fish http://wapo.st/1gvHXw5 pic.twitter.com/Z1Ssf1FSMF
I want to shove all the oil company CEOs into a huge swimming pool of crude oil.