Remain Calm …

The latest republican trick is one again to attack the polls, lie about the polls, and make up shit.  Here’s some great pollsplaining from one of the great nerds of statistics and polls Sam Wang.

First, thing up … there is no Ro-mentum and Obama’s lead is static.

In either case, the overall picture is the same: a narrow Obama lead that is static – or perhaps widening. There is no evidence for Ro-mentum.

I’ve been pulling my hair out over the total lack of understanding by a lot of media punditry over white noise or random variation.  I think it’s ignorance and not deliberate.  Any series of numbers reported over time will go up or down randomly because that’s just the behavior of a variable reported over time.  That’s when you have to apply the idea of what’s the top and bottom border of are representing random.  This is measured by Standard Deviation and it’s what underlies the idea of being within the margin of error.  You have to see fairly clear and sustained patterns in order to call it not random.  That’s why you can’t hang on every up and down.  Basically, it takes 7 ups or 7 downs to bust out of the three standard deviation realm of what’s normal.   Take a look at the graph over there.  It goes up and it goes down.  The deal to figure out is what is ‘statistically’ significant. You can’t hang on every blip of every poll.

Poll correctness has a lot to do with the way the sample is treated.  That’s the basis of the guess of how many republicans you should sample or democrats in the overall sample.  You have to estimate–base on historical patterns or something else–what the patterns of voter turn out will be.  That’s what most of the complaints about polls tend to reflect.  These assumptions lead to weighting the samples differently.  That’s why a lot of folks do meta-analysis or look at a poll of polls.  This has to do with the law of large numbers which tells us that averages of averages tend to reflect reality. But, the core reality is that pollsters make money by producing accurate pictures and not by telling people what the want to hear.  One legitimate concern is if you should look at all voters or likely voters.  A lot of the rest of the so-called sampling biases that pundits scream about tend to be based more on wishful thinking than anything.  There are some differences in terms of how statistics are used.  Both Gallup an Rasmussen are median-based polls and this can make a difference when comparing to a poll that’s not based on the same metrics.

Wang points to the echo chamber and the Romney minions that are focusing on single polls and screaming or clapping.

Paul Krugman is calling out National Review Online for their attempted takedown of Nate Silver for biased methods and somehow cooking the books. Krugman writes:

This is, of course, reminiscent of the attack on the Bureau of Labor Statistics — not to mention the attacks on climate science and much more. On the right, apparently, there is no such thing as an objective calculation. Everything must have a political motive.

Now more commentators on the right, including Jay Cost (The Weekly Standard) and Jennifer Rubin (Washington Post), are getting in on the act. Wow, dogpile on the rabbit!

A popular approach to undermining technical knowledge is to throw mud, assert expertise, make picky points, and sow doubts among the less savvy. In this case, what’s the argument? The NRO writer, Josh Jordan, makes this core criticism:

When you weight a poll based on what you think of the pollster and the results and not based on what is actually inside the poll (party sampling, changes in favorability, job approval, etc), it can make for forecasts that mirror what you hope will happen rather than what’s most likely to happen.

Jordan sounds like many partisan polling enthusiasts – on both sides. However, his style of poll-dissection can very easily lead a person astray. The human mind has a large capacity for finding reasons to reject a piece of disagreeable evidence. I’ve written about this in the context of how people form false beliefs in politics (“Your Brain Lies To You,” NYT, June 27, 2008). Polling internals lend themselves very well to such “motivated reasoning.” It is always possible to find something not to like in a poll. This is why I discourage all of you from chewing over single polls.

Part of the reason that conservatives are hating on Nate Silver is that they aren’t getting the results they want.  It’s the idea that if you scream loud enough, you can get things to change.  Check out Silver’s latest.  Romney’s chance at getting the electoral college is less than 30% which is basically where it’s been for a very long time . A few up blips do not change a long term trend unless they occur over a period of time.

Any way, calm down and let the metrics be with you.  Here’s some interesting snapshots of trends on a state by state basis.


Hurricane Sandy Open Thread

Good Evening!!

I’m having a hard time figuring out what’s going on with Hurricane Sandy, because whenever Washington DC and New York City are involved in a weather event, the national media only want to talk about what’s happening in those two cities. I noticed this last year when New York City had a rare blizzard and even though conditions were much worse up here in New England, we heard nothing about it on the national news.

From what I can see from some quick surfing, the effects are being felt very widely all along the East coast. I grabbed a few photos off the ‘net from various places.

Kennebunkport, Maine

Gloucester, Massachusetts

Longneck, Delaware on Rehoboth Bay

Freeport, New York

Norfolk, Virginia

Cape May, New Jersey

More photos of the storm are collected at The Boston Globe

Here are a few recent news links on the storm:

Wall Street Journal: East Coast Braces as Sandy Strengthens

Fox News Latino:Hurricane Sandy Slams Northeast

The Boston Globe: Power outages at 172K as storm strikes

Reuters: As election, Sandy draw near, pressure mounts on disaster chief

So, any of you Sky Dancers who are feeling the impact of this giant storm, please tell us what’s happening where you are. And whatever you do, please stay safe!


Monday Reads


Good Morning!!!

All things surrounding the elections are now up to 11.  I’ve seen some weird things in my days but I’m beginning to check my history books for more bizarre examples of crazy campaign antics.  Andrew Sullivan turned my last week’s observation of the similarities between the election maps of 2012 and those of the US directly before the civil war into a national conversation yesterday on ABC. I’m just pointing to ABC right now because I’ve had enough virtual visitations from the KKK for the time being.

During this Sunday’s edition of ABC’s This WeekDaily Beast writer Andrew  Sullivan claimed that if Republican nominee Mitt Romney wins back Florida and Virginia in the upcoming 2012 presidential election, especially due to the white vote, then the South’s electoral map will look exactly like the pro-slavery United States Confederacy during the Civil War.

This observation came in response to host George Stephanopoulos noting that the latest polls show that six out of ten white Americans intend to vote for Romney.

PBS reporter Gwen Ifill said that “we can’t ignore” the possible factor racial animus may play in deciding the election, noting that the poll indicates that, on some level, people are still willing to admit “racial bias.”

Sullivan then added: “If Virginia and Florida go back to the Republicans, it’s the Confederacy. Entirely. You put a map of the Civil War over this electoral map, you’ve got the Civil War.”

Perhaps we all really need to have a big conversation on racism in America.  It appears white people think they are victims of racism while still using racial stereotypes for people of color.  I’m confused.  Hasn’t any one had read any literature or history on institutional racism.  White people screaming racism is about like the current crop of republican men shouting they’re victims of misogyny.

Racial prejudice has increased slightly since 2008 whether those feelings were measured using questions that explicitly asked respondents about racist attitudes, or through an experimental test that measured implicit views toward race without asking questions about that topic directly.

Fifty-one percent of Americans now express explicit anti-black attitudes, compared with 48 percent in a similar 2008 survey. When measured by an implicit racial attitudes test, the number of Americans with anti-black sentiments jumped to 56 percent, up from 49 percent during the last presidential election. In both tests, the share of Americans expressing pro-black attitudes fell.

“As much as we’d hope the impact of race would decline over time … it appears the impact of anti-black sentiment on voting is about the same as it was four years ago,” said Jon Krosnick, a Stanford University professor who worked with AP to develop the survey.

Most Americans expressed anti-Hispanic sentiments, too. In an AP survey done in 2011, 52 percent of non-Hispanic whites expressed anti-Hispanic attitudes. That figure rose to 57 percent in the implicit test. The survey on Hispanics had no past data for comparison.

The AP surveys were conducted with researchers from Stanford University, the University of Michigan and NORC at the University of Chicago.

 The Romney campaign continues its strategy of lying by planning on using an ad in Ohio about a false, conspiracy theory on a jeep plant closing to move to China.  It’s been completely denied, debunked, and disproved so, Romney’s continuing to put it out there.  They’ve even put together an ad.

As you may have heard, Romney on Thursday scared the bejeezus out of Ohio autoworkers when, during arally, he cited a story claiming that Chrysler was moving Jeep production to China. Thousands of people work at a sprawling Jeep complex in Toledo and a nearby machining plant. Many thousands more work for suppliers or have jobs otherwise dependent on the Jeep factories. It’s fair to say that they owe their jobs to President Obama, who in 2009 rescued Chrysler and General Motors from likely liquidation. If Chrysler moved the plants overseas, most of those people would be out of work.

The story turns out to be wrong. As Chrysler made clear the very next day, in a tartly worded blog post on the company website, officials have discussed opening plants in China in order to meet rising demand for vehicles there. They have no plans to downsize or shutter plants in the U.S. On the contrary, Fiat, the Italian company that acquired Chrysler during the rescue, just spent $1.7 billion to expand Jeep production in the U.S. That includes $500 million to renovate and expand the Toledo facilities, with 1,000 new factory jobs likely to follow. On Monday, about the same number of people will report for their first day of work in Detroit, when Chrysler adds a third shift to a Jeep plant it operates there.

This is as bad as all the false narratives out there being repeated about Benghazi including the completely false narrative that Hillary Clinton asked for more security and Obama denied it.  Then, there’s the they didn’t send the military in to help meme that points to the White House too.  All of this is patently false but still harped on by Romney surrogates.  The desperation of Romney supporters is evident in all these lies.  That and the contempt they must have for the American people.  Even former Bush SOS Condi Rice says these Republican narratives are ridiculous.

It is being charged that requests for extra security in Benghazi were denied by the administration.

The suggestion is that the attack would have been stopped, and the ambassador still alive, if the requests had been granted.

But at a hearing of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee this month, Charlene Lamb, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State and head of the Bureau of Diplomatic Security, testified that the request was for added security in Tripoli, the capital of Libya, and not Benghazi.

The added manpower would have been based 400 miles away from the violence.

In addition, U.S. security officials report more guards could not have repelled heavy weapons used by the attackers.

The Wall Street Journal has reported “a four-man team of armed guards protecting the perimeter and four unarmed Libyan guards inside to screen visitors.”

In addition, “Besides the four armed Libyans outside, five armed State Department diplomatic security officers were at the consulate.”

There is an air of hypocrisy about this second charge from Republican critics.

House Republicans voted to cut nearly $300 million in funding from Embassy Security as part of their most recent budget.

Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) conceded this in a CNN interview.

“Absolutely. Look, we have to make priorities and choices in this country… When you’re in tough economic times, you have to make difficult choices how to prioritize this.”

Dean Baker has an excellent article up on the future of Social Security and Why Big Bucks Donors don’t like political discussions that strongly support the program.  He argues that any highly vocal support of Social Security by Obama would dry up his campaign contributions.

But there is another set of economic considerations affecting the politics of social security. These considerations involve the economics of the political campaigns and the candidates running for office. The story here is a simple one: while social security may enjoy overwhelming support across the political spectrum, it does not poll nearly as well among the wealthy people – who finance political campaigns and own major news outlets. The predominant philosophy among this group is that a dollar in a workers’ pocket is a dollar that could be in a rich person’s pocket – and these people see social security putting lots of dollars in the pockets of people who are not rich.

Cutting back benefits could mean delays in repaying the government bonds held by the Trust Fund . The money to repay these bonds would come primarily from a relatively progressive income tax revenue. The wealthy certainly don’t want to see changes like raising the cap on wages that are subject to the social security tax, which is currently just over $110,000.

For this reason, a candidate who comes out for protecting social security can expect to see a hit to their campaign contributions. They also can anticipate being beaten up in both the opinion and news sections of major media outlets. While, in principle, these are supposed to be kept strictly separate, the owners and/or top management of most news outlets feel no qualms about removing this separation when it comes to social security – and using news space to attack those who defend social security.

 

So, that’s my offerings this morning.  What’s on your reading and blogging list today?


Sandy says the Sun Will Not Come Out Tomorrow

We are all thinking about the folks that will be impacted by Hurricane Sandy.   I’m feeling your pain!!  They’re calling this a 100 year storm.  I’ve seen more than my share of 100 year, 300 year and 500 year storms.  Be prepared!!

Sandy may combine with a second storm coming out of the Midwest to create a system that would rival the New England hurricane of 1938 in intensity, said Paul Kocin, a National Weather Service meteorologist in College Park, Maryland. The hurricane currently passing the Bahamas has killed 21 people across the Caribbean, the Associated Press reported, citing local officials.

“What we’re seeing in some of our models is a storm at an intensity that we have not seen in this part of the country in the past century,” Kocin said in a telephone interview yesterday. “We’re not trying to hype it, this is what we’re seeing in some of our models. It may come in weaker.”

The hybrid storm may strike anywhere from the Delaware- Maryland-Virginia peninsula to southern New England. The current National Hurricane Center track calls for the system to go up Delaware Bay and almost directly over Wilmington, Delaware, just southwest of Philadelphia, on Oct. 30-31.

Please be certain to let us know how you are!

If it makes you feel better, lots and lots of experienced Louisiana Hurricane workers from LA GOHSEP are on their way up there to help out!  We’re also sending fleets of utility trucks.  I’m sure our Governor will be up there with you shortly too as long as there are opportunities for him to be on any television set within a short distance of New Hampshire.

Here are some helpful ideas for riding out Hurricane Sandy from the man who would be Fascist Dictator of the US:

#MittStormTips Women, stay indoors until you receive instruction from the nearest man. #AlsoMakeDinner

#MittStormTips: In case of flooding, raise your car elevator to at least the 5th or 6th floor of your mansion. #Sandy

#MittStormTips Stock up on extra housekeepers, kitchen staff, maintenance personnel.

#MittStormtips Pack a flashlight, extra batteries, portable radio, bottled water, a bayonet, and your binder full of women.  #sandy

#MittStormTips I’m worried. Some of my best friends own insurance companies.

#MittStormTips: Check the Weather Channel for storm updates. Check Fox News for Why This Is Obama’s Fault updates.

Meanwhile, I should remind you that Mittens wants to get rid of FEMA.  Just so you know, Governor Vaginal Probe of Virginia and Governor Shamu of New Jersey have their requests for Federal Emergency Authorizations in already.  What?  The market isn’t going to solve all their problems for them?  What?  Romney wants them ALL to take care of it themselves.

Hey Governors! Romney says you’re wasting our money! Take care of it yourselves! I’m just waiting for Pat Robertson’s verdict on what group of people he hates that he thinks God’s punishing this time out. My hope is that he has to explain the complete destruction of Liberty University. (No injured people, just total destruction of the damned property.)

h/t to PDGrey

Okay, so seriously, here’s some useful links that I always have handy.

FEMA:  Apply for assistance and get help on your flood insurance claims.

American Red Cross:  Get help with emergency shelters and hurricane preparation tips.

Weather Underground:  This site is the only place to go for real weather information

Also, go there now for the latest warnings and updates.

and NO, I will not link to that horrid song.  My cousin played Daddy Warbuck’s secretary on Broadway for quite a few years and I have no idea how she endured that song that many times a week.

Take Care!!!  Be Safe and don’t follow  #MittStormTips  to strap your animals securely to the car roofs when evacuating safe in the knowledge that the rain will clear up the mess!!!  Keep your pets inside and keep your pet’s leash, container and food  handy in case you have to evacuate.  You also need fresh water for you pets so be sure to check their daily water needs.  Also, check ahead for pet friendly motels and shelters even if you think you won’t evacuate. Check for other arrangements like a pet storm shelter where you can send your pet free while you stay at another shelter if you get stuck in that situation.  They will feed, walk, and make sure your pet gets to you after the storm.  Your local government and Red Cross can help you with that!!!  One of the big lessons of Katrina was that of the pet experience and now most states and Red Cross Chapters also have pet arrangements of some kind.

Again, Please be Safe!


Ann Romney’s “Revealing” Interview With Good Housekeeping Magazine

Good Housekeeping has published interviews with Michelle Obama and Ann Romney. The editors call the interview with Romney “revealing,” and I’d have to agree–though probably for different reasons than theirs.

The headline revelation has to be that Ann Romney wants to “throw out the” education “system.”

GH: Can you tell me, what campaign issue is closest to your heart?

AR: I’ve been a First Lady of the State. I have seen what happens to people’s lives if they don’t get a proper education. And we know the answers to that. The charter schools have provided the answers. The teachers’ unions are preventing those things from happening, from bringing real change to our educational system. We need to throw out the system.

Romney doesn’t elaborate on what “answers” the charter schools have provided or which improvements teachers unions are preventing. But a number of studies have found problems with charter schools, and there doesn’t seem to be any evidence that students’ test scores are better overall in charter schools than public schools.

As for the teachers unions, I realize that Ann’s husband would like to eliminate all unions and reduce workers’ pay as much as possible. Certainly privatizing education through charter schools would be a good way to eliminate teachers unions.

Ann Romney was certainly a lot more explicit about the goal of ending public schools in this interview than her husband has been. Perhaps Mitt isn’t worried about the reactions of readers of Good Housekeeping. He probably thinks they’re just a bunch of silly airheads.

Ann gave several other answers that I found pretty stunning. In response to a question on why her husband should be president, Ann said:

I’d say because of his life experience, starting with the example [his father] George Romney set of being successful in his family and business and then serving in a political sphere. [He showed] what a difference being involved in politics makes. The formula from his perspective was, you never get involved in politics unless you’re financially secure and your children are raised. So when our children were older and Mitt had made a bit of money, there was his father’s example that you find ways to serve and give back.

So I guess anyone who isn’t a millionaire shouldn’t run for office? Or does “a bit of money” mean hundreds of millions to Ann? Clearly Obama shouldn’t have run with those two young daughters! Back to Ann’s pontificating:

That’s also what drew us to the Olympics. Mitt gave up everything, walked away from a very lucrative position [to lead the Salt Lake Organizing Committee for the 2002 Olympics]. It was just a little square inch of light that you walk into saying, “I think this is the right thing to do.” You get that confidence from intuition and prayer…all of those things where no one’s going to give you a blueprint of how life is going to turn out.

“Mitt gave up everything?” WTF?! At this point it should be clear to anyone who is paying attention that Mitt Romney never really left Bain Capital. The Boston Globe reported in July that Romney didn’t resign from Bain in 1999 as he has claimed, but instead took a leave of absence and only negotiated his severance package in 2002 when he decided to run for governor of Massachusetts. The severance package kept him earning money from current Bain investments for ten more years. Romney was even listed as CEO of Bain on the Olympics website and during public appearances at the time. Even now Romney is still profiting from the company he founded.

Ann Romney is every bit as full of shit as her husband is. She says that Mitt would help the economy by “getting rid of regulation,” and “using our natural resources,” (meaning open up national parks to oil drilling) but she acknowledges that in places like China where there is no environmental regulation,

the pollution and the air quality is just abysmal, and people are having to live in that. You understand how important it is, but you also have to recognize that we have to balance those things.

Right. We “have to balance” the rights of the rich to feed their endless greed with the rights of the 99.9% of Americans to clean air and water.

Ann says that as First Lady she would continue to work with at-risk young people. I didn’t realize she had done that, so I looked it up. According to Wikipedia,

Ann Romney has been involved in a number of children’s charities, including having been a director of the inner city-oriented Best Friends, which seeks to assist inner-city adolescent girls. She advocated a celibacy-based approach to the prevention of teen pregnancy. She worked extensively with the Ten Point Coalition in Boston and with other groups that promoted better safety and opportunities for urban youths. She was an honorary board member of Families First, a parent education program in Cambridge, Massachusetts. She was a volunteer instructor of middle-school girls at the multicultural Mother Caroline Academy in Boston.

She has said her interest in helping underprivileged children dates back to when she and her five boys saw a vehicle carrying a group of boys to a Massachusetts Department of Youth Services detention center. She began volunteering for the United Way of Massachusetts Bay soon after that, and by 2002 was serving as one of that organization’s board members. She was on the Faith in Action Committee for the United Way, working with local religious establishments to assist at-risk children and helping to found United Way Faith and Action. Earlier, by 1996, she was a member of the Massachusetts Advisory Board of Stand for Children.

Please note that Stand for Children is an organization that has worked to reduce protections for teachers and undermine the power of teachers unions.

A couple more of Ann’s answers really bugged me. There was the one in which she praises Mitt for saying it was OK if Ann couldn’t cook all his meals for him when she was suffering from MS:

You have to find something that’ll pull you away from those scary places. And it was my husband telling me, “I don’t care if you’re in a wheelchair for the rest of your life. I don’t care whether you make dinner; I can eat cold cereal and toast. As long as we’re together, as long as you’re here, we’re going to be OK.”

Why couldn’t Mitt cook his own damn meals? How hard is it to open a cookbook and learn the basics? If he just couldn’t bring himself to do that, he could hire a cook–and other servants as well–to help his sick wife. They were hardly struggling to make ends meet!

But here’s the most annoying statement Ann made in the interview:

GH: Who are your heroes? Your role models? Don’t say your husband, even if it’s true. (Laughing)

AR: I would say Eleanor Roosevelt, Mother Teresa…and Hillary Clinton. She has been through so much; she just kept going. Now she’s doing a great job as Secretary of State.

Mother Theresa was a hypocrite just like Ann, I buy that one. But I don’t believe for one minute that she agrees with Eleanor Roosevelt or Hillary Clinton on anything.