Live Blog: Super Tuesday Results

Super Tuesday states and delegate counts

Hi Sky Dancers! Are you ready to rumble? No? Well then stick around for our live blog of the Super Tuesday primaries. The delegates of ten states that are voting today will all be distributed proportionally. There are no winner-take-all states. The polls close at (all times EST):

7:00PM in Vermont, Georgia, and Virginia
7:30PM in Ohio
8:00PM in Massachusetts, Tennessee, and Oklahoma
9:00PM in North Dakota
10:00PM in Idaho
12:00AM in Alaska.

There is quite a bit of disagreement about how many delegates each of the candidates has accumulated, so I’m going with Politico’s estimates:

Romney 180
Santorum 90
Gingrich 29
Paul 23
Huntsman 2

According to Nate Silver’s Guide to Super Tuesday, the outcome tonight

could reasonably range from one in which Mitt Romney seems to have the nomination all but wrapped up to a situation that casts his nomination in doubt.

Mr. Romney is likely to remain the favorite to win the nomination almost no matter what happens. He is also very likely to finish with the largest number of delegates from the evening. He comes into the night with perhaps the most favorable momentum he has had at any point in the nomination process; some of his disastrous outcomes were pushed aside by his wins in the past week in Michigan, Arizona and Washington.

Still, the line between a resplendent night for Mr. Romney and a suspect one is relatively slim, both in terms of the delegate count and the narrative it will generate. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich have a lot on the line as well, possibly including their continued survival in the race.

Josh Putnam, a political science professor, says it’s already over before the votes are counted.

Santorum can’t get to 1144 …and neither can Gingrich.

FHQ has been saying since our Very Rough Estimate of the delegate counts a couple of weeks ago that Romney is the only candidate who has a chance to get there. But, of course, I have not yet shown my work. No, it isn’t mathematically impossible, but it would take either Gingrich or Santorum over-performing their established level of support in the contests already in the history books to such an extent that it is all but mathematically impossible. Santorum, for instance, has averaged 24.2% of the vote in all the contests. Since (and including) his February 7 sweep, he is averaging 34.7% of the vote. That is an improvement, but it is not nearly enough to get the former Pennsylvania senator within range of the 1144 delegates necessary to win the Republican nomination.

You can read the rest at Putnam’s blog.

At the WaPo, Chris Cilizza has a guide to the five storylines to watch tonight. You can read the whole thing at the link, but here’s his take on whether Romney can end it tonight:

From a delegate point of view, Romney is nowhere near clinching the nomination. (Check out our video explaining all of the delegate math.)

But, there is a path toward him closing out the nomination — for all intents and purposes — tonight. How? Romney needs to be able to claim a sort of national victory, winning somewhere in every region of the country.

The Northeast is locked up as Romney will cruise in his home-ish state of Massachusetts and Vermont. He’s likely to get a win (if not two) out of the Plains/West with the North Dakota and Idaho caucuses. Ohio is Romney’s chance in the Midwest/ Rust Belt.

That leaves the South. Gingrich is going to win Georgia. Santorum looks strong in Oklahoma and it’s somewhat debateable whether that counts as the South anyway. Tennessee is clearly Romney’s best chance to win in the South even though polling suggests that Santorum has a narrow edge….

If Romney wins — for the sake of argument — Ohio, Tennessee, North Dakota, Idaho, Vermont and Massachusetts — he can make a compelling case to the Republican establishment, which has been loathe to get off the sidelines thus far in the race, that he is the only national candidate left in the field.

Brent Budowsky claims that the Republican “establishment” (whoever they are) will “lay down the law” to the right wingers tomorrow.

When the rooster crows on Super Wednesday, the insider establishment that runs the GOP will lay down the law to Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul and all true conservatives: It is time to unite behind the candidate of the establishment that runs the party, which does not include Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Sarah Palin, Donald Trump, Rick Perry, Herman Cain or true conservatives of any kind.

The voting on Super Tuesday will determine whether this insider GOP establishment will have enough brute clout to force opponents of Mitt Romney out of the race beginning in earnest on Super Wednesday, or whether the the process must continue. The pressure to withdraw will be excruciating. The private inducements to drop out will be enormous. The threats against candidates refusing to drop out will be secret, but savage.

I’m not sure how Budowsky, a Democrat, knows this, but it sounds reasonable. Here’s a bit more:

In the GOP, the insider, banking, Wall Street and K Street establishment is the boss. Period.

True conservatives have been humiliated in this primary season because they began without a credible conservative presidential candidate and will likely end being force-fed Mitt Romney, whom most of them privately consider a phony (which he is) who will betray them if elected (which he will).

So have it! Let us know what you’re hearing in your neck of the woods or on whatever media outlet or big blog you are following. Personally, I’m still rooting for Romney to lose somehow, but I’m not all that hopeful it will happen.

109 Comments on “Live Blog: Super Tuesday Results”

  1. bostonboomer says:

    I’m listening to MSNBC at the moment. They will begin talking about exit polls at 7PM. They are saying that it’s still possible that no candidate will get the 1144 delegates needed for the nomination. Romney’s campaign is already advancing arguments about why he should get the nomination even if he doesn’t get the full number of delegates.

    Let’s face it. He’s the annointed one just as Obama was in 2008. I don’t know why they even bother holding elections anymore.

    • northwestrain says:

      Primary prez election USA style — theater — nothing but theater. Throw in the state party caucus states where anything resembling democracy is a farce.

      BB write: “I don’t know why they even bother holding elections anymore.”

    • Well, elections are held so that the “news/opinion/prognostication” channels will have something to talk and talk and talk and talk some more about. News is no longer about what has already happened but about predicting the future.

      And then, those stations must sell ads so that they can pay the predictors. So the ad buys by the candidates help keep the stations in bidness, and bidness is what it’s all about, right? It’s not about the people, it’s not about democracy, and it ain’t about “our” jobs, but about “their” jobs. Maybe I should change my online name to PermanentCynic.

  2. dakinikat says:

    Georgia has been called for Gingrich which is no surpise

  3. dakinikat says:

    CNN Breaking News
    Vermont exit polls: Romney 38%, Paul 27%, Santorum 23%, Gingrich 8%.

  4. dakinikat says:

    CNN Breaking News ‏
    Georgia exit polls: Gingrich 45%, Romney 26%, Santorum 20% , Paul 8%.

  5. dakinikat says:

    This is from Virginia … Newt and Santorum didn’t get on ballot there


    Romney predicted as Winner

  6. ralphb says:

    Fuck these people, seriously just fuck ’em …

    86-Year-Old Ohio Veteran Can’t Vote After Government-Issued ID Is Rejected At Poll

    • dakinikat says:

      They’re trying to take us back to the confederacy.

    • Well, maybe if they shut out enough Republican voters they will role back these “voter fraud” laws. Hopefully those laws will result in the Repugs shooting themselves in their asses.

    • NW Luna says:

      OTOH, I wish they’d send those strict poll workers to the caucus states. We could use them here.

      Carroll was offered a provisional ballot, but the type was too small for him to read and “I was kind of perturbed by then,” he said.

  7. dakinikat says:

    Ohio’s polls close in a few minutes.

  8. bostonboomer says:

    44% of “Angry” Ohioans supporting Romney. 28% supporting Santorum.

  9. dakinikat says:

    As polls close, AP is projecting former Gov. Mitt Romney wins Republican presidential primary in Massachusetts

  10. dakinikat says:

    National Journal ‏
    BREAKING: Rick Santorum wins Oklahoma Primary, his first victory of the evening

  11. bostonboomer says:

    MA goes to Romney, obviously. Santorum could get 4 of the 38 delegates if he gets 20%

  12. bostonboomer says:

    Romney didn’t do as well as expected in Vermont. Both Paul and Santorum will get 4 delegates. VT only has 17.

  13. bostonboomer says:

    The same thing will happen in Georgia if Romney or Santorum breaks 20%

  14. bostonboomer says:

    It’s surprising that TN hasn’t been called for Santorum yet. That could be good for Romney.

  15. Woman Voter says:

    Why aren’t they mentioning the Democratic votes (Obama’s delegates) or the Green Party?

    • bostonboomer says:

      There weren’t any other presidential candidates on the Mass. ballot, just Obama. Obviously, Obama will be the nominee.

  16. bostonboomer says:

    MSNBC projects Santorum will win TN. That’s big.

  17. bostonboomer says:

    Santorum wins Oklahoma.

  18. ralphb says:

    Gingrich plays his crowd for fools, and he’s not disappointed.

  19. bostonboomer says:

    Charles P. Pierce ‏ @ESQPolitics

    CNN exits show Romney crushing Santorum among the Papists. #piusXIIisdead

  20. bostonboomer says:

    Rick Santorum takes the stage in Stubenville, OH. Ohio is still too close to call.

    • dakinikat says:

      He just pulled into the lead in Ohio

      • bostonboomer says:

        Nate Silver says Santorum has a 70% chance of winning Ohio. He is overperforming his polls and Romney is underperforming. See link below

    • Beata says:

      I am not a bit surprised that Santorum chose to speak from Steubenville, the old steel town on the OH-WV border. It is the home of Franciscan University of Steubenville, one of the most conservative, radically orthodox Catholic universities in the country. It is also a major center for Opus Dei.

  21. bostonboomer says:

    I made it through the beginning of Santorum’s speech, but had to shut it off. He had his mom on stage with him this time, and his father-in-law. He really laid it on thick praising his wife. Sorry Rick. It’s too late for you to win the women’s vote.

    • dakinikat says:

      He said that the Greatest Generation Rose UP to meet the challenges …

      Wasn’t your father drafted? I now my father was rushing to get in to the Air Corps before they drafted him into the infantry.

      • bostonboomer says:

        My dad was in the reserves and was called up after Pearl Harbor. His unit was the first in the U.S. to be sent overseas. He trained in Louisiana.

      • ralphb says:

        My Dad was in the Air Corps as a bomber pilot. He went over to England with one of the first groups.

      • bostonboomer says:

        My dad went to the Pacific and fought at Guadalcanal.

      • ralphb says:

        My uncle island hopped across the Pacific in the Marines. I don’t know for sure where he fought, he’d just never say anything about it.

      • bostonboomer says:

        My dad never talked about the war until the last couple of years before he died. Then we found out stuff we had never known about.

    • Beata says:

      I watched the whole speech. It was nauseating.

      • bostonboomer says:

        JFK’s speech made Santorum throw up and now his is making you feel like throwing up….

        Mitt Romney’s speech was making me want to throw up so I had to shut it off. What an arrogant blowhard he is!

  22. bostonboomer says:

    Santorum is leading in North Dakota

  23. bostonboomer says:

    Nate Silver ‏ @fivethirtyeight

    Pretty sure Santorum is a slight favorite in Ohio. He’s maybe ~60%-70% likely to win.

  24. bostonboomer says:

    9:32 P.M. A Warning for Romney in Gallup Tracking Poll?

    So far, Mitt Romney is under-performing his polls in most states that have reported results so far, while Rick Santorum is over-performing his — possibly by a wide enough margin to swing Ohio, where Mr. Romney had appeared to have a slight advantage in the surveys but Mr. Santorum now leads in the vote count.

    Although the polling data generally showed improving numbers for Mr. Romney over the course of the last week, there was one exception. The – Nate Silver

  25. dakinikat says:

    I guess even $12 million dollars doesn’t buy you all of Ohio.

  26. Pat Johnson says:

    MSNBC is showing Rick holding a marginal lead over Romney by about 10,000 votes. Too close to call since all precincts are not in.

    Romney must be close to a collapse considering the amount of money he has spent over the last few months hoping to clear the decks.

    Oh well, as much as I never thought I would say it, OBama is looking better all the time by comparison.

    If only we could trust him.

  27. bostonboomer says:

    Oh no. I think Romney is going to sing America the Beautiful again. Is he slurring his words or am I hallucinating? I think he’s had a few drinks tonight already.

  28. Minkoff Minx says:

    Holy Cow is right:

    New Gingrich is a Real Piece of Work | Mother Jones

    in just three or four minutes of his speech:

    According to Newt Gingrich, (a) we “discovered” fracking by drilling for it, (b) biofuels made from algae are ridiculous, (c) we can solve our oil problem by drilling for natural gas, (d) we can totally get gasoline down to $2.50 a gallon, and (e) if Iran screws with the Strait of Hormuz we should invade their country. Or possibly just nuke them. He wasn’t real specific about that. And that was after calling Barack Obama “incoherent.”

  29. bostonboomer says:

    OT– Wikileaks e-mails suggest that Osama bin Laden’s body wasn’t buried at sea but brought back to U.S.

    • ralphb says:

      The more I read of that Stratfor information, the more I think they are kind of an intelligence con shop of some kind. International companies etc will pay a lot of money for Intel and that kind of shop would make a super swindle.

  30. bostonboomer says:

    Ohio is still too close to call with almost 70% of the vote in, but it’s looking good for Santorum.

    • ralphb says:

      After all these races finish, I’ll be interested in the turnout figures. Up to now turnout has been down for the primaries and I want to know if it stays down or increases closer to the convention. Maybe the War on Christians will bring out the goobers?

    • Beata says:

      But Willard seems to be leading in Cuyahoga Co. ( Cleveland ) and Hamilton Co. ( Cincinnati ) where votes are still coming in.

  31. bostonboomer says:

    Santorum wins North Dakota. That’s 28 delegates.

    • bostonboomer says:

      It’s at the end of my post, but that’s ok.

      • ralphb says:

        I missed it getting to the live blog. Sorry 🙂

      • bostonboomer says:

        No really, it’s OK. I thought it was an interesting article.

        MSNBC says that Ohio may not be decided tonight but it does look like Romney will squeak it out.

        Idaho went to Romney.

  32. peggysue22 says:

    I’m late to the party but I can now officially say that I live in crazy land. Santorum won in my neck of the woods. Ugh!!!

    I haven’t read through the responses but I was taken by Gingrich in Georgia, his ‘victory’ speech, noting that this was a new chapter in his campaign and that he was the best person to . . .

    Debate President Obama.

    Is that what this is all about? He’s running for Debate King? I thought this was a presidential race? It was a weird moment.

    Great roundup, BB.

    • bostonboomer says:

      They’re all pathetic. Don’t feel bad. Romney won here. Of course. And he said he was glad to be home! How many different states will he say that in?

      • ralphb says:

        I believe that without Gingrich splitting the vote, Santorum would be kicking Romney’s butt.

      • bostonboomer says:

        Definitely. No one really wants to vote for Romney. If Gingrich would drop out, Santorum might still have a chance. Which is a very scary thought.

    • janicen says:

      I love seeing the Republican party in disarray!

  33. bostonboomer says:

    91% of the vote in Ohio is in. Still too close to call, but Romney is ahead by a few thousand votes.

  34. bostonboomer says:

    Andrew Sullivan makes the point that Romney is winning in all the places in Ohio that Obama will win in the fall.

  35. dakinikat says:

    Alaska polls are closing in a few minutes.

  36. ralphb says:

    Joan Walsh: “In GA, Mass, TN and Ohio, only 1 in 10 voters were younger than 30. (That’s been true all 2012) Can you say “demographic extinction?”

  37. ralphb says:

    Marcy Kaptur beat Kucinich!