Live Blog: Super Tuesday Results
Posted: March 6, 2012 Filed under: 2012 primaries, Republican politics, the GOP, U.S. Politics | Tags: live blog, Republicans, Super Tuesday 109 Comments
Super Tuesday states and delegate counts
Hi Sky Dancers! Are you ready to rumble? No? Well then stick around for our live blog of the Super Tuesday primaries. The delegates of ten states that are voting today will all be distributed proportionally. There are no winner-take-all states. The polls close at (all times EST):
7:00PM in Vermont, Georgia, and Virginia
7:30PM in Ohio
8:00PM in Massachusetts, Tennessee, and Oklahoma
9:00PM in North Dakota
10:00PM in Idaho
12:00AM in Alaska.
There is quite a bit of disagreement about how many delegates each of the candidates has accumulated, so I’m going with Politico’s estimates:
Romney 180
Santorum 90
Gingrich 29
Paul 23
Huntsman 2
According to Nate Silver’s Guide to Super Tuesday, the outcome tonight
could reasonably range from one in which Mitt Romney seems to have the nomination all but wrapped up to a situation that casts his nomination in doubt.
Mr. Romney is likely to remain the favorite to win the nomination almost no matter what happens. He is also very likely to finish with the largest number of delegates from the evening. He comes into the night with perhaps the most favorable momentum he has had at any point in the nomination process; some of his disastrous outcomes were pushed aside by his wins in the past week in Michigan, Arizona and Washington.
Still, the line between a resplendent night for Mr. Romney and a suspect one is relatively slim, both in terms of the delegate count and the narrative it will generate. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich have a lot on the line as well, possibly including their continued survival in the race.
Josh Putnam, a political science professor, says it’s already over before the votes are counted.
Santorum can’t get to 1144 …and neither can Gingrich.
FHQ has been saying since our Very Rough Estimate of the delegate counts a couple of weeks ago that Romney is the only candidate who has a chance to get there. But, of course, I have not yet shown my work. No, it isn’t mathematically impossible, but it would take either Gingrich or Santorum over-performing their established level of support in the contests already in the history books to such an extent that it is all but mathematically impossible. Santorum, for instance, has averaged 24.2% of the vote in all the contests. Since (and including) his February 7 sweep, he is averaging 34.7% of the vote. That is an improvement, but it is not nearly enough to get the former Pennsylvania senator within range of the 1144 delegates necessary to win the Republican nomination.
You can read the rest at Putnam’s blog.
At the WaPo, Chris Cilizza has a guide to the five storylines to watch tonight. You can read the whole thing at the link, but here’s his take on whether Romney can end it tonight:
From a delegate point of view, Romney is nowhere near clinching the nomination. (Check out our video explaining all of the delegate math.)
But, there is a path toward him closing out the nomination — for all intents and purposes — tonight. How? Romney needs to be able to claim a sort of national victory, winning somewhere in every region of the country.
The Northeast is locked up as Romney will cruise in his home-ish state of Massachusetts and Vermont. He’s likely to get a win (if not two) out of the Plains/West with the North Dakota and Idaho caucuses. Ohio is Romney’s chance in the Midwest/ Rust Belt.
That leaves the South. Gingrich is going to win Georgia. Santorum looks strong in Oklahoma and it’s somewhat debateable whether that counts as the South anyway. Tennessee is clearly Romney’s best chance to win in the South even though polling suggests that Santorum has a narrow edge….
If Romney wins — for the sake of argument — Ohio, Tennessee, North Dakota, Idaho, Vermont and Massachusetts — he can make a compelling case to the Republican establishment, which has been loathe to get off the sidelines thus far in the race, that he is the only national candidate left in the field.
Brent Budowsky claims that the Republican “establishment” (whoever they are) will “lay down the law” to the right wingers tomorrow.
When the rooster crows on Super Wednesday, the insider establishment that runs the GOP will lay down the law to Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul and all true conservatives: It is time to unite behind the candidate of the establishment that runs the party, which does not include Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Sarah Palin, Donald Trump, Rick Perry, Herman Cain or true conservatives of any kind.
The voting on Super Tuesday will determine whether this insider GOP establishment will have enough brute clout to force opponents of Mitt Romney out of the race beginning in earnest on Super Wednesday, or whether the the process must continue. The pressure to withdraw will be excruciating. The private inducements to drop out will be enormous. The threats against candidates refusing to drop out will be secret, but savage.
I’m not sure how Budowsky, a Democrat, knows this, but it sounds reasonable. Here’s a bit more:
In the GOP, the insider, banking, Wall Street and K Street establishment is the boss. Period.
True conservatives have been humiliated in this primary season because they began without a credible conservative presidential candidate and will likely end being force-fed Mitt Romney, whom most of them privately consider a phony (which he is) who will betray them if elected (which he will).
So have it! Let us know what you’re hearing in your neck of the woods or on whatever media outlet or big blog you are following. Personally, I’m still rooting for Romney to lose somehow, but I’m not all that hopeful it will happen.
peej
Carissa
ecocatwoman
mablue2
Mama Lopez
peggysue22
quixote
skydancingguestblogger
Mona (aka Wonk the Vote)
Sky Dancing 
I’m listening to MSNBC at the moment. They will begin talking about exit polls at 7PM. They are saying that it’s still possible that no candidate will get the 1144 delegates needed for the nomination. Romney’s campaign is already advancing arguments about why he should get the nomination even if he doesn’t get the full number of delegates.
Let’s face it. He’s the annointed one just as Obama was in 2008. I don’t know why they even bother holding elections anymore.
Primary prez election USA style — theater — nothing but theater. Throw in the state party caucus states where anything resembling democracy is a farce.
BB write: “I don’t know why they even bother holding elections anymore.”
Well, elections are held so that the “news/opinion/prognostication” channels will have something to talk and talk and talk and talk some more about. News is no longer about what has already happened but about predicting the future.
And then, those stations must sell ads so that they can pay the predictors. So the ad buys by the candidates help keep the stations in bidness, and bidness is what it’s all about, right? It’s not about the people, it’s not about democracy, and it ain’t about “our” jobs, but about “their” jobs. Maybe I should change my online name to PermanentCynic.
Georgia has been called for Gingrich which is no surpise
Does that give him all those 76 delegates? I am still behind today…
If another candidate breaks 20% they will get some delegates. It’s the same with all the states. There are no winner-take-all states tonight. I wrote a little more down below.
nope, it’s proportional
I read your comment a bit later after I wrote that question. Still having residual head pains…checking out for the night.
Thanks for doing this live blog…would have never been able to sit through it all.
CNN Breaking News
Vermont exit polls: Romney 38%, Paul 27%, Santorum 23%, Gingrich 8%.
Vermont is considered too early to call at this time.
Now called for Romney
CNN Breaking News
Georgia exit polls: Gingrich 45%, Romney 26%, Santorum 20% , Paul 8%.
This is from Virginia … Newt and Santorum didn’t get on ballot there
Romney
2,671
62%
Paul
1,610
38%
Romney predicted as Winner
Hee hee! I’m told that some Democrats voted for Ron Paul just to rattle the Repubs cages a little. Not mentioning any names.
You bad, Janice!
Fuck these people, seriously just fuck ’em …
86-Year-Old Ohio Veteran Can’t Vote After Government-Issued ID Is Rejected At Poll
http://thinkprogress.org/justice/2012/03/06/439324/86-year-old-ohio-veteran-cant-vote-after-government-issued-id-is-rejected-at-poll/
They’re trying to take us back to the confederacy.
Well, maybe if they shut out enough Republican voters they will role back these “voter fraud” laws. Hopefully those laws will result in the Repugs shooting themselves in their asses.
OTOH, I wish they’d send those strict poll workers to the caucus states. We could use them here.
Ohio’s polls close in a few minutes.
Too close to call in Ohio: 40% Romney, 36% Santorum in early exits
44% of “Angry” Ohioans supporting Romney. 28% supporting Santorum.
As polls close, AP is projecting former Gov. Mitt Romney wins Republican presidential primary in Massachusetts
National Journal
BREAKING: Rick Santorum wins Oklahoma Primary, his first victory of the evening
He’s looking good for Tennessee too.
Funny. I guess MSNBC is more cautious than CNN. They haven’t called OK and TN yet. I’m still rooting for Romney to be more weakened after tonight.
MA goes to Romney, obviously. Santorum could get 4 of the 38 delegates if he gets 20%
Romney didn’t do as well as expected in Vermont. Both Paul and Santorum will get 4 delegates. VT only has 17.
The same thing will happen in Georgia if Romney or Santorum breaks 20%
It’s surprising that TN hasn’t been called for Santorum yet. That could be good for Romney.
Same with Oklahoma. Santorum should have won there.
Why aren’t they mentioning the Democratic votes (Obama’s delegates) or the Green Party?
There weren’t any other presidential candidates on the Mass. ballot, just Obama. Obviously, Obama will be the nominee.
Santorum campaign: “If we go to the convention, so be it.”
MSNBC projects Santorum will win TN. That’s big.
Santorum wins Oklahoma.
Gingrich plays his crowd for fools, and he’s not disappointed.
Charles P. Pierce @ESQPolitics
CNN exits show Romney crushing Santorum among the Papists. #piusXIIisdead
Rick Santorum takes the stage in Stubenville, OH. Ohio is still too close to call.
He just pulled into the lead in Ohio
Nate Silver says Santorum has a 70% chance of winning Ohio. He is overperforming his polls and Romney is underperforming. See link below
I am not a bit surprised that Santorum chose to speak from Steubenville, the old steel town on the OH-WV border. It is the home of Franciscan University of Steubenville, one of the most conservative, radically orthodox Catholic universities in the country. It is also a major center for Opus Dei.
That figures.
I made it through the beginning of Santorum’s speech, but had to shut it off. He had his mom on stage with him this time, and his father-in-law. He really laid it on thick praising his wife. Sorry Rick. It’s too late for you to win the women’s vote.
He said that the Greatest Generation Rose UP to meet the challenges …
Wasn’t your father drafted? I now my father was rushing to get in to the Air Corps before they drafted him into the infantry.
My dad was in the reserves and was called up after Pearl Harbor. His unit was the first in the U.S. to be sent overseas. He trained in Louisiana.
My Dad was in the Air Corps as a bomber pilot. He went over to England with one of the first groups.
My dad went to the Pacific and fought at Guadalcanal.
My uncle island hopped across the Pacific in the Marines. I don’t know for sure where he fought, he’d just never say anything about it.
My dad never talked about the war until the last couple of years before he died. Then we found out stuff we had never known about.
I watched the whole speech. It was nauseating.
JFK’s speech made Santorum throw up and now his is making you feel like throwing up….
Mitt Romney’s speech was making me want to throw up so I had to shut it off. What an arrogant blowhard he is!
Santorum is leading in North Dakota
http://www.northdakotagop.org/caucus/
OT but breaking news, Capitol One dropped Rush.
http://thinkprogress.org/media/2012/03/06/439153/breaking-capital-one-drop-ads-from-rush-limbaugh/
Yay!
Nate Silver @fivethirtyeight
Pretty sure Santorum is a slight favorite in Ohio. He’s maybe ~60%-70% likely to win.
9:32 P.M. A Warning for Romney in Gallup Tracking Poll?
So far, Mitt Romney is under-performing his polls in most states that have reported results so far, while Rick Santorum is over-performing his — possibly by a wide enough margin to swing Ohio, where Mr. Romney had appeared to have a slight advantage in the surveys but Mr. Santorum now leads in the vote count.
Although the polling data generally showed improving numbers for Mr. Romney over the course of the last week, there was one exception. The – Nate Silver
Gallup sucks.
I guess even $12 million dollars doesn’t buy you all of Ohio.
Romney is talking now. He makes me sick.
MSNBC is showing Rick holding a marginal lead over Romney by about 10,000 votes. Too close to call since all precincts are not in.
Romney must be close to a collapse considering the amount of money he has spent over the last few months hoping to clear the decks.
Oh well, as much as I never thought I would say it, OBama is looking better all the time by comparison.
If only we could trust him.
If only he didn’t want to kill American citizens.
Hey, I’ve been shot at before. One more time ain’t nuttin.
LOL Ralph, have you been imbibing?
Only a little 🙂
Oh no. I think Romney is going to sing America the Beautiful again. Is he slurring his words or am I hallucinating? I think he’s had a few drinks tonight already.
Holy Cow is right:
New Gingrich is a Real Piece of Work | Mother Jones
in just three or four minutes of his speech:
Thank goodness he will never hold public office again.
I listened to part of that. I’ve never heard more ridiculous crap at one time in my life. The crowd was a bunch of real dumb asses cause they cheered it.
The man is truly deranged. Thank God he doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in Hell.
OT– Wikileaks e-mails suggest that Osama bin Laden’s body wasn’t buried at sea but brought back to U.S.
http://www.news.com.au/world/wikileaks-stratfor-email-hints-osama-bin-ladens-body-may-be-in-the-us-report/story-e6frfkyi-1226291911113
The more I read of that Stratfor information, the more I think they are kind of an intelligence con shop of some kind. International companies etc will pay a lot of money for Intel and that kind of shop would make a super swindle.
I never believed they buried bin Laden at sea though.
Ohio is still too close to call with almost 70% of the vote in, but it’s looking good for Santorum.
After all these races finish, I’ll be interested in the turnout figures. Up to now turnout has been down for the primaries and I want to know if it stays down or increases closer to the convention. Maybe the War on Christians will bring out the goobers?
The turnout in MA was only expected to be around 500,000.
But Willard seems to be leading in Cuyahoga Co. ( Cleveland ) and Hamilton Co. ( Cincinnati ) where votes are still coming in.
Yeah, he’s leading in populated areas. But right now Santorum is still leading
Santorum wins North Dakota. That’s 28 delegates.
Super Wednesday: GOP establishment lays down the law to the right
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign/214345-super-wednesday-gop-establishment-lays-down-the-law-to-the-right
It’s at the end of my post, but that’s ok.
I missed it getting to the live blog. Sorry 🙂
No really, it’s OK. I thought it was an interesting article.
MSNBC says that Ohio may not be decided tonight but it does look like Romney will squeak it out.
Idaho went to Romney.
I’m late to the party but I can now officially say that I live in crazy land. Santorum won in my neck of the woods. Ugh!!!
I haven’t read through the responses but I was taken by Gingrich in Georgia, his ‘victory’ speech, noting that this was a new chapter in his campaign and that he was the best person to . . .
Debate President Obama.
Is that what this is all about? He’s running for Debate King? I thought this was a presidential race? It was a weird moment.
Great roundup, BB.
They’re all pathetic. Don’t feel bad. Romney won here. Of course. And he said he was glad to be home! How many different states will he say that in?
I believe that without Gingrich splitting the vote, Santorum would be kicking Romney’s butt.
Definitely. No one really wants to vote for Romney. If Gingrich would drop out, Santorum might still have a chance. Which is a very scary thought.
I love seeing the Republican party in disarray!
It’s fun isn’t it!
91% of the vote in Ohio is in. Still too close to call, but Romney is ahead by a few thousand votes.
CNN just called it for Romney
Boy CNN is much more daring than MSNBC. They’re still saying it’s too close to call.
CNN has people planted in the places where the votes are coming in. They’re getting them as they come in.
This still looks bad for Romney. He’s an incredibly weak candidate, and as time goes on more and more people are going to learn that the just don’t like him.
I suspect the wealthy eastside suburbs of Cuyahoga Co. helped Willard take the lead.
Probably.
Andrew Sullivan makes the point that Romney is winning in all the places in Ohio that Obama will win in the fall.
http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/03/live-blogging-super-tuesday-results.html
Noticed that on the map but I don’t know if it’s good or bad.
Alaska polls are closing in a few minutes.
Joan Walsh: “In GA, Mass, TN and Ohio, only 1 in 10 voters were younger than 30. (That’s been true all 2012) Can you say “demographic extinction?”
Everyone at my polling place was older than me (all about ten of them). Of course it was during work hours.
Alex Pareene: “Al Franken has won all of Ohio’s delegates #ACORN”
I was watching the candidate parties. They were all old white people.
Just read your comment in my mind’s Sixth Sense voice…I see old white people.
Wait, check that…I see rich old white people…Wealthy voters deliver for Mitt Romney – The Washington Post
Colbert on super Tuesday tailgate: I even painted myself in the team colors–white!
Marcy Kaptur beat Kucinich!
I was happy to see that too.
She’s anti-choice.