Chain, Chain, Chain …
Posted: July 13, 2011 Filed under: Economy | Tags: Chained CPI, inflation impacting the elderly 19 CommentsSo I thought I’d write a brief post on one of the topics that has come up with social security reform. That would be switching the Social Security COLA (Cost Of Living Adjustment) from the CPI-W to the Chained CPI. E
conomists widely agree that the CPI-W overstates the rate of inflation. However, there are some other considerations to look at when undertaking any change. Kevin Drum from MoJo explains the problems with the CPI-W which is an inflation index based on a fixed basket of goods and is widely criticized for having a bunch of problems including substitution bias.
The reason is something called “upper level substitution bias,” which means that instead of always buying a standard basket of goods and services, people change their buying habits over time as prices change. When the price of hamburger goes up, they eat more chicken. When the price of chicken goes up, they switch back to hamburger. A version of CPI that takes this into account is called chained CPI, and overall it’s considered a more accurate reflection of actual inflation. But technical merits aside, there are always winners and losers when you make changes to statistics like this. One big loser would be Social Security beneficiaries. Initial Social Security benefits upon retirement are calculated based on wage levels, so they’d be unaffected by a switch to chained CPI. But annual COLA increases would be affected, and they’d be lower than they are now.
Menzie Chinn at Econbrowser has a nifty graph showing the differences in three measures of inflation. The blue line is the traditional CPI that’s now the basis of the Social Security COLA. The Green line is the PCE Deflator which is a more general measure of consumer inflation that’s not attached to a fixed basket of goods. This is the measure that the Fed tends to follow. The red line is the Chained CPI.
Chinn has a general discussion of each of these indices too. The CPI basket which is used to weight price changes updates every two years now. The chained CPI uses weights that are constantly changing and more realistically reflect changes in consumer buying habits. This avoids the substitution bias.
The BLS collects the buying habits and prices of typical urban consumers monthly and provides the data in the form of the inflation indices. You can read about the chained CPI and the methodology used to calculate it here. It’s been in use since 2002. The most basic explanation of the differences is explained at the FAQ provided by the BLS.
In its final form, the C-CPI-U is a monthly chained price index with the expenditure weights varying each month. The CPI-U and CPI-W, on the other hand, are biennial chained price indexes where their expenditure weights are updated every two years. Within the two-year span, these indexes are fixed-weight series, where the changes in these indexes reflect only changes in prices, and not expenditure shares, which are held constant.
Dean Baker has some information worth considering before we suggest that the change to the chained index is the best move. Using the Chained CPI may reduce overall costs while still providing a COLA, but the index may not reflect price changes that specifically impact the elderly population in the US.
It is not clear that the Chained CPI is more accurate than the current measure. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has found that an experimental elderly index (CPI-E), that tracks the consumption patterns of people over age 62, actually shows a higher rate of inflation for the elderly than the CPI currently used for adjusting Social Security benefits.
While the CPI-E is not a full index since it does not look at the specific items bought by the elderly and the specific outlets they use for their shopping, there is no reason why BLS could not construct a full CPI-E. If the concern is having an accurate cost of living adjustment then it would seem that you should support having Congress instruct BLS to construct a full CPI-E. For my part, I don’t know whether this measure would show a higher or lower rate of inflation than the current CPI used for indexing benefits, but it would be a more accurate measure.
As it stands, switching to a Chained CPI would undoubtedly mean a cut in scheduled benefits, regardless of whether or not it involves a more accurate cost of living adjustment. Using this measure of the CPI would reduce benefits for retirees by 3 percent in 10 years, 6 percent in 20 years and 9 percent in 30 years. We know that the vast majority of retirees are struggling to make ends meet already. Retirees are not the people responsible for wrecking the country’s economy. Social Security benefit cuts of this magnitude seem like a major step in the wrong direction.
Inflation has not been much of a problem for this country since the mid 1980s. Since we are aware that too much money chasing too few goods is the basis of inflation and the FED is committed to not letting inflation get out of hand, it’s unlikely that we’ll see problems with inflation. The only thing that would lead–at this point in my mind–to major price disruptions would be a politicized FED that abused monetary policy or some brand of gold bug craziness that put us back on a hard currency. The last problem would cause incredible, destabilizing deflation since a fixed medium of exchange in a growing economy causes the opposite problem. That would be too little money chasing lots of goods.
Probably the best thing to do at this point would be to ask the CBO to study which index realistically represents changes to the cost of living, then seeing if the savings is worth it at the aggregate level. Dean Baker has this suggestion.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Experimental Price Index for the Elderly has consistently shown a somewhat higher rate of inflation for the elderly population.
If the concern is accuracy, then the route should be to have the BLS construct a full elderly index that could take account of actual purchase substitution patterns among elderly consumers. Simply switching to the C-CPI-U without undertaking this research is consistent with a desire to cut Social Security, not to make the COLA more accurate.
This is probably a better idea since the elderly are more likely to spend more on health care where costs have been rising astronomically. They are also less likely to buy other kinds of consumer goods. A CPI based on a senior basket of goods may be more appropriate.
Betty Ford’s Memorial: A wonderful tribute to a Women’s Rights Advocate
Posted: July 12, 2011 Filed under: Women's Rights | Tags: Betty Ford Memorial, Cokie Roberts 8 Comments
If you haven’t had a chance to read Cokie Roberts’ Eulogy for Former First Lady Betty Ford, you really should.
Over the years, as she spoke out more forcefully for women’s rights, Mrs. Ford strongly defended the housewife’s role: “Downgrading this work has been part of the pattern in our society that downgrades individual women’s talents in all areas.”
No wonder women all over the country have spent this past weekend loving her anew.
One talent political wives were expected to cultivate that they didn’t share with most women was that of first rate campaigner, especially wives of House members – the House wives – who faced an election every two years. By the time he ran for president, Ford supporters sported “Elect Betty’s Husband” buttons, but people in Michigan had been doing that for decades. It was another activity that brought political wives together – even if they were on different sides, they had the same complaints – and forged tightly joined connections that extended ot the men as well. They would bring the men together, serve them some drinks and a good meal, listen to their stories and make them behave. And some of that good behavior carried over to the corridors of Congress. It was a role political wives had played since the beginning of the republic and it worked.
Former First Lady Rosalynm Carter delivered the other eulogy. Mrs Ford requested this of both women.
Delivering the first eulogy, former first lady Rosalynn Carter said she had “an excellent role model and a hard act to follow.”
“Millions are forever in her debt today because she was never afraid to tell the truth,” Carter said. “Betty was my friend.”
Others paid tribute to the woman who was embraced by a generation of women who were just coming into their own. A social pioneer, Ford spoke openly about sex, cancer and addiction.
The service played on CSPAN 2 today and will undoubtedly be available for viewing this week. I’d just like to
remember Mrs. Ford as a woman who was a tireless fighter for the ERA and women’s health at a time when both abortion rights and support for the ERA were solid parts of the Republican platform as well as the Democratic party platform. It’s difficult to remember that many Republican women were committed to women’s rights in this day of Republican women that stand against these rights.
Can you charge the country’s top elected officials with Treason?
Posted: July 12, 2011 Filed under: Federal Budget, Federal Budget and Budget deficit | Tags: Federal Deficit, game of chicken. 27 CommentsIt seems as though our nation’s “leaders” are looking to bring down our country. It’s the only explanation that I have.
Also, I’m at the point where I think Joe Biden is the only sane one in the room. Pinch me! Please!
Headlines of note to prove my case:
Boehner Says The Debt Limit Increase Is Obama’s Problem
Speaker of the House John Boehner introduced a new argument to the debt ceiling and deficit reduction talks Tuesday, saying raising the borrowing limit is Republicans’ concession in the negotiations.”This debt limit increase is [Obama’s] problem,” he said.
Boehner is trying to force a deficit reduction package entirely based on spending cuts, saying Obama’s demands for new revenues would only be considered if Obama accepted deep cuts to entitlements.
My guess is that Boehner has absolutely no control over the Republicans in the House. Some one from Wall Street needs to take a few of them to the wood shed. Meanwhile, Mitch McConnell appears to be interested in nothing but political play. Some senate Republicans would obviously join the president but it appears that will happen over McConnell’s dead mind and conscious. McConnell still refuses to admit the Republicans lost the White House 3 years ago. He’s become some kind of Captain Queeg who gets in front of the press then rattles ball bearings in his fist while muttering “one term president, strawberries, one term president, it’s the strawberries, I tell you …” repeatedly.
McConnell: Obama can’t deliver major deficit-reduction deal
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) on Tuesday said a comprehensive deficit-reduction deal is not attainable as long as Barack Obama is president.
McConnell declared that deficit-reduction talks have come to an unsolvable deadlock.
“After years of discussions and months of negotiations, I have little question that as long as this president is in the Oval Office, a real solution is unattainable,” he said.McConnell has called for reforms to curb the future growth of Social Security and Medicare since taking over as Republican leader at the end of 2006.
So, what’s the response of the leader of the free world? Would you call this riling up or scaring seniors?
Obama says he cannot guarantee Social Security checks will go out on August 3
President Obama on Tuesday said he cannot guarantee that retirees will receive their Social Security checks August 3 if Democrats and Republicans in Washington do not reach an agreement on reducing the deficit in the coming weeks.
“I cannot guarantee that those checks go out on August 3rd if we haven’t resolved this issue. Because there may simply not be the money in the coffers to do it,” Mr. Obama said in an interview with CBS Evening News anchor Scott Pelley, according to excerpts released by CBS News.
The Obama administration and many economists have warned of economic catastrophe if the United States does not raise the amount it is legally allowed to borrow by August 2.
This is insane. No one’s made any sense in this discussion since Joe Biden told his gang of six to get real. Meanwhile, we’re beginning to see financial economists question this game of chicken.This extremely good analysis is written by Jeffrey Frankel the James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard’s Kennedy School.
In the 1955 movie Rebel Without a Cause, James Dean and a teenage rival race two cars to the edge of a cliff in a game of chicken. Both intend to jump out at the last moment. But the other guy miscalculates, and goes over the cliff with the car.
This is the game that is being played out in Washington this month over the debt ceiling. The chance is at least 1/4 that the result will be similarly disastrous.
It is amazing that the financial markets continue to view the standoff with equanimity. Interest rates on US treasury bonds remain very low, barely above 3% at the ten-year maturity. Evidently it is still considered a sign of sophistication to say “This is just politics as usual. They will come to an agreement in the end.” Probably they will. But maybe not. (I’d put a ½ probability on an agreement that raises the debt limit, but just muddles through in terms of the genuine long term fiscal problem. That leaves at most a ¼ probability of a genuine long-term solution of the sort that President Obama apparently proposed last week – described as worth $4 trillion over ten years.)
My advice to investors is to shift immediately out of US treasuries and into high-rated corporate bonds. If the worst happens, you will probably save yourself from a big capital loss within the next month. If not, there is no harm done.
The game is not symmetric. The Republicans are the ones who are miscalculating. Evidently they are confident of prevailing: they rejected the President’s offer, even though he was willing to cut entitlement programs.
The situation is complicated because there are a number of different people crammed into the Republican car. There is one guy who is obsessed with the theory that, come August 3, the federal government could retain its top credit rating if it continued to service its debt by ceasing payment on its other bills. But this would mean failing to honor legal obligations that have already been incurred (paying suppliers for paper clips that have already been bought, paying soldiers their wages for last month’s service, sending social security recipients their checks, etc.). This is like observing that the cliff is not a 90 degree drop-off, but only 110 degrees. It doesn’t matter: the car would still go crashing into the ocean far below. The government’s credit would still be downgraded and global investors would still demand higher interest rates to hold US treasuries, probably on a long-term basis.
There are other guys (and gals) in the car who are even more delusional. They are dead set on a policy of immediately eliminating the budget deficit (e.g., those opposed to raising the debt ceiling no matter what, or those campaigning for a balanced budget amendment), and doing it primarily by cutting nondefense discretionary spending. This is literally impossible, arithmetically. But they honestly don’t know this. It is as if they were insisting that the car can fly. Sometimes it can be a good bargaining position to adopt a very extreme position. But if you are demanding that the car flies, you are not going to get your way no matter how determined you are.
What we have here are a group of rebels with self-serving causes. Again, the President should just invoke the 14th amendment,pay the bills, and send the DOJ after the many folks here that appear to be willing to tank our country for their personal political gain. Threatening seniors’ social security is not leadership. It’s just a matter of time before the financial markets start noticing these folks are not acting in the best interest of our country, our economy, or our ability to deal with our economic challenges. We’re lucky that they still think this is the chicken dance right now instead of a chicken race. It’s going to be a lot harder to pay off the debt with the interest rates that go along with junk bonds. This is not the place for political grandstanding.
update: Okay, this is weird … what’s McConnell up to now?
The Big Blink? McConnell Proposes Giving Obama Authority To Raise Debt Limit Alone
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has proposed a sort of escape hatch for Congressional Republicans, who have threatened not to raise the national debt limit — and trigger a default — if Democrats don’t agree to trillions of dollars in cuts to popular social programs.
The plan is designed to give President Obama the power to raise the debt limit through the end of his first term on his own, but to force Democrats to take a series of votes on the debt limit vote in the months leading up to the election.
This still leaves me wondering if Boehner can deliver enough Republican votes to actually head off a purposeful debt default.







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