Unemployment is still the Nation’s Number 1 problem
Posted: March 3, 2011 Filed under: jobs, unemployment | Tags: jobs, unemployment 16 CommentsThe Gallup unemployment survey shows U.S. unemployment back up to 10.3% in February. It finds underemployment to be 19.9%.
The percentage of part-time workers who want full-time work worsened considerably in February, increasing to 9.6% of the workforce from 9.1% at the end of January. A larger percentage of the U.S. workforce is working part time and wanting full-time work now than was the case a year ago (9.3%).
This is undoubtedly due to the austerity budgets of states and municipalities combined with the inaction on the part of the Federal Government. The original Obama stimulus was 40% tax cuts and the recent tax cuts enacted and extended in December continue to prove to be worthless in terms of stimulating the economy and creating jobs as many economists–including this one–have warned.
The labor market continues to show mixed results for job creation depending on which study you read.
The report from ADP (.pdf) also shows continued improvement. It says that 217,000 jobs were added to the private sector in February. That’s the second best result, after it’s tally for December of 247,000, since the recovery began last year. It’s also slightly higher than the 189,000 it recorded for January. Of course, the Bureau of Labor Statistics only indicated 50,000 private sector jobs added that month, so the divergence between ADP and the BLS could continue.
Next, there’s the Challenger, Gray & Christmas report (.pdf). It doesn’t provide good news. The report says planned job cuts rose to 50,702 in February — the most since March 2010. This also marks the second straight month of rising planned layoffs, according to the firm. A big chunk of February’s layoffs came from government and non-profit employers, which reported 16,380 planned cuts — up 154% from January. If firings are increasing, then they will make it more difficult for the economy to add net new jobs.
Calculated Risk added two points to consider
• Remember that the weak payroll report in January (only 36,000 jobs added) was blamed on the snow. Usually I don’t buy the weather excuse, but it did appear weather played a role this time. If there is a bounce back, it will be useful to average the last two months together to estimate the current pace of payroll growth. If there is no bounce back – that would definitely be bad news.
• Even if the payroll report shows improvement, the employment situation remains grim. There are 7.7 million fewer payroll jobs now than before the recession started in 2007 with almost 14 million Americans currently unemployed. Another 8.4 million are working part time for economic reasons, and about 4 million more workers have left the labor force. Of those unemployed, 6.2 million have been unemployed for six months or more.
The official rate as measured by the BLS comes out tomorrow morning. Given the ongoing mixed signals in various labor and job statistics, it seems clear that we need some kind of jobs program. NFL negotiations are going down to the wire. Perhaps, a potential NFL lockout will get some people to at least notice what’s going on with jobs, jobs losses, and collective bargaining. We have to do something to get policy makers to realize that what they’ve been doing isn’t working because it’s not getting people back to work.
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Lambert think underemployment is an unstated policy goal. There are advantages to any regime to having a cowed, hungry populace. But if they push it too far the cowed and hungry turn angry.
There has to be some reason. It sure seems like a feature and not a bug considering economists now what it takes to get rid of it.
Great post! I love how our government skews these particular numbers to make things look much rosier than they are.
They started playing with the calculations during the Nixon years. The definitions were more broader prior to that. You really have to look at discouraged workers and the underemployed to get a good idea of how bad things are. Another indicator is the number of people in temporary jobs.
I’ve sensed from the beginning that the numbers are deliberatly skewed. They [the Administration and all the pols] simply do not want to admit how bad unemployment is. So we get these monthly numbers, and then we get an “adjustment” figure later.
Underemployment is a huge problem. From what I’ve read even the majority of ‘new’ rah-rah jobs created are at the low end of the wage spectrum. Low wages to no wages means low to no tax revenues and very little in the consuming department. You can’t get credit [unless you’re willing to spin for an obnoxious interest rate] and you cannot very well spend money you do not have. That’s why Boehner’s comment about: ‘if our cutbacks mean jobs, well, that’s just too bad’ is so utterly senseless and short sighted. Where are all these jobless people suppose to go? Maybe they’ll pitch a tent on his front lawn. We’ll have a Boehnerville party.
I’m sick and weary of being lied to!
I’m not even included in the unemployment statistics anymore because I’ve been unemployed for years now.
And there are plenty others like that too. I’m not counted when I’m not working either.
Me four…I wonder how many of us are college graduates? I think that “4.2” figure is underestimated too, given the fact that many are self-employed or consultants who are not “entitled” to unemployment.
This post explains so much about Washington’s attitude towards job creation. Loved it!
Yup, me too!
Me three.
Walker in deep trouble in Wis., according to Rasmussen poll.
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2011/03/rasmussen_walker_flailing.php
All credit to the Wisconsin 14, without the right to strike, public employees don’t really have too many effective tactics at their disposal and would have an incredibly hard time sustaining an action for any length of time, the legislators showing this much resolve is absolutely phenomenal.
OT: Do you all remember that Obama said 2 days ago that he was not going to take any questions, he would take questions “tomorrow.” Well, here was the one question he took…
RealClearPolitics – Video – US Media Gets One Question At Obama/Calderon Presser; AP Asks About NFL Lockout
I swear, it would be so funny if it wasn’t so damn ridiculous of a question. And you know it was “set up” prior to being asked.
I don’t really get why he continues to go there with this stuff. It seems like he maxed out on the people who find it humanizing or hip a while ago but it’s like he just can’t stop himself from reenforcing the perception that he spends too much time on foolishness and leisure. Has he put out his March Madness picks yet?
Obama is so out of touch with real Americans at this point, that he doesn’t even know how to connect.
I hope you talk about the proposed budget cuts soon- I can’t wait to see what fresh hell the is in store.