Live Blog: Wisconsin Returns the Vote but it could be Guam, who really knows?
Posted: April 5, 2016 Filed under: 2016 elections, Live Blog | Tags: live blog Wisconsin Primary 2016 130 Comments
Good Evening!
The results of the Wisconsin primary are coming in tonight. It will be an extremely good lesson in why winning a small majority of the percentage of vote doesn’t translate into much when it comes to reaching the nomination goal on the Democratic side since all Democratic primaries allocate delegates proportionally. Both candidates are likely to come away with a sizable number of delegates but not with a lead that will change the outcome of the race.
While polls have been all over the place, it appears that recent polls have Sanders out front by a small margin. Wisconsin has a huge university in Madison and a substantial white population. It is also in that part of the country generally known as the ‘Great Fly Over’. This is the type of state that has trended more towards Sanders. Clinton, however, is likely to hold her own in the rural and union/blue collar parts of the state as well as with the small but vital Hispanic, Native American, Black and Asian populations. She’s also doing very well with Democrats and older people. However, Wisconsin has an open primary. Open primaries have been better for Sanders historically. They are also more difficult to predict.
The Republican side may be more interesting since Cruz is expected to win. This is the type of state that also attracts the kinds of voters likely 
to go for Kasich. The question is really a matter of turnout. Here are some results of Wisconsin exit polls on issues.
In another new set of questions, nearly four in 10 GOP primary voters in Wisconsin say they’d “scared” of what Trump would do in office if elected president – hitting nearly six in 10 among Cruz and Kasich supporters. Those are far greater than the levels of concern among Trump supporters we see about Cruz or Kasich (fewer than two in 10 Trump supporters are scared of a Kasich win, a quarter for Cruz.)
Six in 10 overall are “excited” or “optimistic” about a Cruz presidency. Fewer, about half, are excited or optimistic about a Kasich presidency, declining to just over four in 10 for Trump.
Outsider
Nearly half of GOP voters want someone with experience in politics, close to as high as it’s been so far this election cycle – and previously Trump’s won only 7 percent of these voters, vs. 33 percent for Cruz and 24 percent for Kasich. About half of voters instead say they’d like the next president to be someone from “outside the political establishment.” Trump’s previously won two-thirds of outsider voters.
Deportation
More than six in 10 GOP voters in Wisconsin think undocumented immigrants should be offered a path to legal status, on track to be the highest of any state this year (it’s topped out at 59 percent in Virginia). Only a third support deporting undocumented immigrants, fewer than in previous primaries. Deportation voters have been a strong group for Trump in previous primaries; Cruz beat Trump in recent contests (North Carolina, Missouri and Illinois) among the larger group that favors a path to legal status, and Kasich won them in Ohio.
Two news stories may start to have an effect from now until the California primaries. The first is the release of the DC Madam list of phone numbers. It seems to indicate that Cruz may have a DC madam issue. Here are the vitals of the “John of Interest”:
“1/26/2006,2:59,PM,GRANDPRARI,TX,214,616-3080”
The news today is filled with the interview given by Sanders to the NYDN. Sanders appears to be completely confused by the process of federal
regulations and oversight as it pertains to Wall Street and Financial Institutions. I always knew he sounded vague on details but this interview shows his ignorance. This is about as bad as recent Trump interviews. Both appear big on their vision but extremely stupid on policy details and the workings of government. Trump could be excused as a outsider if he were running for lower office. Bernie, however, is a Senator. We shouldn’t have to direct him to School House Rock for Lessons. This is Chris Cillizza writing for WAPO.
There’s more — lots more — including an exchange over what law, exactly, Wall Street executives broke during the economic collapse and how Sanders would actually prosecute them. But the two passages above give you some idea of how the bulk of the interview went: the Daily News pressing Sanders for specifics and asking him to evaluate the consequences of his proposals, and Sanders, largely, dodging as he sought to scramble back to his talking points.
For Sanders’s critics — including Hillary Clinton — the Daily News interview is the “ah ha!” moment that they have been insisting will come for Sanders, a time when his pie-in-the-sky proposals are closely examined and found wanting. Sure, free college tuition sounds good, but how, exactly, do you pay for it? And, yes, breaking up the biggest banks seems appealing — particularly if you saw “The Big Short” — but (a) can you actually do it? and (b) what does it mean for all the people those banks employ?
A large part of Sanders’s appeal to the throngs who back him is his insistence that we are in need of a political revolution. And, for those people, the Daily News interview will be much ado about nothing. But what the interview exposes is that once the revolution happens there will be lots of loose ends to tie up. Loose ends that Sanders either hasn’t grappled with — or doesn’t want to.
As for all those geniuses like Tim Robbins who insist we’re Guam, look at this:
Despite winning Mississippi’s Republican presidential primary by double digits, Donald Trump could turn Mississippi blue for the first time in 40 years, according to a Mason-Dixon poll released Tuesday.
So, we just have to sit through the next few weeks until the huge, diverse states get their chance to close the deal.
Meanwhile, I’d just like to state that We are ALL Guam now!!
peej
Carissa
bostonboomer
ecocatwoman
mablue2
Mama Lopez
peggysue22
quixote
skydancingguestblogger
Mona (aka Wonk the Vote)
Sky Dancing 
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hahaha.
Markos again attempts to reason with the Bernie fans at DailyKos.
Delusion sets in at Camp Sanders.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/04/05/1510862/-Delusion-sets-in-at-Camp-Sanders
It’s a scam. The whole goddamned campaign is a money grab. I just hope most of the money is coming from dummy accounts set up by Republicans rather than sincere lefties. That would be a tragedy.
Grifters gonna grift!
I have to disagree. I hope that the folks who poor their money down the Bernie hole really miss it some day. I started out with no beef with the Sanders supporters. If I had no access to social media I might still have benign feelings toward them. My feelings now are quite negative. Rosario Dawson has not made me drop Daredevil but I fast forward if she is on the screen. The dishonest and venomous way they talk about Hills has really pissed me off.
That said I think that a ton of Bernie’s money is Republican money.
A ton of his voters too.
Polls reportedly close at 9:00 PM EDT.
A reporter from MSNBC said voter turnout is low at the UW Madison.
Is that good or bad? I don’t know anymore.
That would be superb, if true.
Definitely bad for Bernie.
Long lines in Green Bay.
I heard long lines in black districts in Milwaukee. But from the exit polls it looks like Bernie will win as expected.
Heard it had to do with Scott photo id law, and not accepting the college id’s.
All they need is a drivers’ licence.
They didn’t talk about the drivers license, just the student ID.
That Mississippi poll is amazing. Hillary is within the margin of error. If she can come close there, she’ll win Georgia, Arkansas, and Louisiana with a good shot at Texas. Come on, Trump.
I’m tired of pretending the Democratic primary isn’t already over. 🙂
Ha.
Maybe those “Confederate” voters are worth something after all? Don’t tell Tim Robbins and Rosario Dawson.
After this it will be time to grind up and recycle that Governor in IN.
My mouth is wide open, hell’s bells, this would be great for HERSTORY.
Don’t worry, it will be over soon enough when Hillary gets the majority of the delegates. Not that it would stop Bernie. 🙂
Can’t wait until Atlantic Seaboard Tuesday
I expect Clinton to win almost every state from now, including every state that day, but I don’t think she’ll win the majority of delegates before May.
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I LOVE NEW YORK!
Yup.
The timing of all these exposées is getting on my nerves. Out of jump juice it guess.
There goes CT!
The editorial board was not amused by Bernie.
Does he even know what he’s saying?
Woo hoo!
I have no idea what channel to watch.
I despise Chris Matthews and Racel keeps shoving Sanders down my throat.
I hate Fox so that’s out and CNN has offshoots as well.
Brian and Rachel.
Who is Brian?
I would go with CNN but actually, I’m just watching the NYT while watching the NCAA Women’s Championship. I just cannot tolerate listening to the talking heads talking up Bernie.
By the way, if John King is doing the analysis on CNN, he is brilliant so there’s that.
that’s why I switch.
And they declared Sanders …
I’m watching you all and twitter. Easier on the nerves.
Yea. I know. I can’t take stress like I used to.
I’m sorry you aren’t feeling well BB, Hubby and I came down with that stupid flu. He’s had it for 4 weeks now and though he is coming out of it, he is still depressed, tired, and coughing occasionally. Younger daughter came down with it last week from another source. It’s yucky and draining. Take care of yourself.
Sorry to hear that. I hope you all feel better soon!
My hubby and I had it from mid-Feb to mid-Mar – ghastly
Nothing from Wapo yet.
NBC just called it for john boy cruz
Getting something now. Sanders 57.8%, vs Clinton 41.9%, 1.5% reporting. Cruz 52.8%, Trump 31.2%, Kasich 13.9%
Yeah. They called it already for cruz and Sanders
So we need to watch the delegate count.
Yup
As much as I loathe Donald Trump I simply despise Ted Cruz. Ugh! Kasich gives me the creeps but Cruz is the absolute worst.
Cruz is an ass and why is Hugh Hewitt on MSNBC?
Matthews had Ann Coulter earlier. It’s Tuesday “Carzies night out”.
Who is he other than a radio oddity?
Kenosha Marge needs to get her county together.
Yup
56-44 with 2 percent reporting according to the NYT.
4% reporting, Sanders 56.4%, Clinton 43.3%. Cruz 50.9%, Trump 32.1%, Kasich 14.7%
I’m still seeing the 56-44 numbers with 4 percent reporting. As long as she can stay in the forties, it should at least send him a message that it’s over. If Sanders can’t trounce her in WI of all places, he’s not going to pick up what he needs to secure the nomination.
Kenosha is at 77.2% reporting with around 15,600 votes. 58.6% Sanders, 41.1% Clinton
Almost exactly the same result by percentages as ’08 WI primary. Quite a state this is.
What happened, just a couple hours ago, Trumphy was saying everybody was going to be in for a big surprise tonight…………………Cruz, big speech coming, up, and surprise, surprise.
Where is my gun? Ted Cruz is going to take the stage. A total assailed!
I am typing on my Kindle that produces words I do not want. I meant to write a s s h o l e.
LOL! I hate autocorrect.
Pat, I can’t help but wonder how he will do in New York, and New Jersey and places like that. I can’t wait.
18.3% reporting, Sanders 52.4%, Clinton 47.4%. Cruz 51.2%, Trump 31.3%, Kasich 15.2%
Sorry, that’s only 10.3% for the Repubs.
That includes Milwaukee Co with 56.4% now reporting and around 95,000 votes.
Whoa, I just looked up at my screen and now it is within 5 pts with 20% of the vote in. Wow that would be fantastic.
I knew she would gain ground when the city of Milwaukee results started coming in.
Glad too.
19.7 reporting for Dems, Sanders 52.7%, Clinton 47.2%. 20.4% reporting for Repubs, Cruz 52.1%, Trump 30.6%, Kasich 15%
I want so bad to hurt Ted Cruz. So bad. Just because he is Ted Cruz. Am I a rotten person?
Not in the least. Cruz oozes everything evil.
I think the average low information Republican will die once they find out more about him.
That be lying TED.
No you are not rotten, the bastard is, he’s a hypocrite, saying his wife is teaching his daughters they can become anything in the United States. There is no Choice for women when it comes to Cruz.
He’s a wreckingball…….And likely a serial adulterer. Fuck Ted Cruz. He’s the worst person on the planet
Hilarious!
Probably a sane one.
Wapo has checked Sanders and Cruz as winners.
Very surprised to see that narrowing of margin. If Hillary can get 46% or so, that is good. And no, Wolf Blitzer, it is not “a big, big win for Bernie Sanders.” At hose margins, he gets maybe ten more delegates. It is a perfect demographic for him.
“Bernie barely squeaks by in WI” is not a headline we’re gonna see. But it’s nothing like the margins he needs to (cough, cough) get more delegates than Hillary.
I think Trump was right and Kasich hurt him here.
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Yuuuuge win for Sanders, uh-huh.
Turned on NPR tonight after work and immediately got Weaver prognosticating that we’re going to see an open Dem convention, because Bernie’s going to do so amazingly well the rest of the race. And that Hillary is running a mud-slinging campaign. Reminded me why I don’t listen to NPR much.
Feel the math!
The good news is we don’t have to endure another 30+ minute Trump infomercial. The bad news is we have to endure smug Cruz.
Margin widening again. Any more large numbers of Milwaukee votes to pour in like earlier?
A few more in the city of Milwaukee but I’ll be very impressed if she can achieve mid-forties overall. 55-45 would show that Bernie cannot get the 60% in the remainder of the races that he needs.
Nah gonna happen!
Dems 27.7% reporting Sanders 54%, Clinton 45.8%. Repubs 26.8% reporting Cruz 52.6%, Trump 30.7%, Kasich 14.4%
Dems, 31.3% reporting Sanders 53.5%, Clinton 46.2%. Repubs 30.3% reporting Cruz 52.7%, Trump 30.6%, Kasich, 14.6%
Clinton is currently ahead in Milwaukee Co, at 73% reported
[…] Source: Live Blog: Wisconsin Returns the Vote but it could be Guam, who really knows? […]
I’m headed to bed. Not staying up to hear Bernie. Remember, drink whenever he says “billionaires”.
Douglas Co, Clinton just overtook Sanders 212 votes to 211, they must be having an excitement there.
Woohoo!
Goodnight, Janicen. I don’t blame you. I have TV on DVD mode until he is done, I don’t want to even look at him waving around, and his adoring fans shaking their signs.
I am hopeful that NYDN story tomorrow will be helpful in New York primary, which is a very important one.
Much bigger than WI, and I expect that to be a strong win for Our Girl!
IF Hillary can win NY and PA, we are in great shape. I’m pretty confident about PA. NY worries me a bit with tightening polls. But hopefully we can at least hold the ten-point lead the polls are showing, and then breathe a sigh of relief.
Cannot.take.another. BS.rant.
I see white people.
Lol. Thanks, I needed that laugh!
Haha.
The computer crashed, and I had to feed the cats, but I’m back. Dems 61.3% Sanders 55.9%, Clinton 43.8%. Repubs 60% reporting Cruz 50%, Trump 33%, Kasich 14.4%
Only 3 counties are at 100%. 4 counties are yet to report.
Crazy Rebecca Bradley won that seat on the WI Supreme Court.
Dems 72.3% reporting: Sanders, 56.0% , Clinton 43.7%
Repubs 71.4% reporting, Cruz 49.3% Trump 33.8% Kasich 14.4%
Dems 77.3% reporting Sanders 56.1%, Clinton 43.6%
Repubs 75.1% reporting Cruz 49.3%,Trump 34.0%, Kasich 14.3%
Dems 80.8% reporting: Sanders, 56.2% , Clinton 43.4%
Repubs 80% reporting: Cruz, 48.9%, Trump 34.3%, Kasich 14.3%
Dems 84.8% reporting: Sanders, 56.3%, Clinton, 43.4%
Repubs 85.1% reporting: Cruz, 48.8%, Trump 34.5%, Kasich 14.2%
91.5% reporting: Sanders, 56.2%, Clinton 43.4%, Cruz, 48.5%, Trump, 34.8%, Kasich,14.1%
Dems 96% reporting: Sanders, 56.4%, Clinton, 43.3%
Repubs, 95.#% reporting: Cruz, 48.4%, Trump, 35.0%, Kasich, 14.0%
There are 13 counties with incomplete reporting, and we are still at 97+%. The percentages haven’t really changed, so I think we are done till morning.
Nite everyone!
Thx for the updates! I was exhausted and had to sleep!
Thx!
Morning! 100% reporting, Sanders, 56.6%, Clinton, 43.1%. Cruz 48.2%, Trump 35.1%, Kasich 14.1%.
So Sanders +13%, a bit less than the +16 that IIRC Nate Silver was predicting. Still, that’s no where enough delegates to make a real difference for Bernie, but they will crow about Bernmentum. On to NY and a very different story!
Luna, check this out, I got the invite by email. Wish I still lived in Seattle so I could go but you might want to, it sounds like a blast.
http://wib16.brownpapertickets.com
Thanks, janicen! Sounds like fun.
He netted 11 delegates.
Worth the read … History
Insightful and thoughtful read.