Live Blog: Wisconsin Returns the Vote but it could be Guam, who really knows?

Good Evening!

The results of the Wisconsin primary are coming in tonight.  It will be an extremely good lesson in why winning a small majority of the percentage of vote doesn’t translate into much when it comes to reaching the nomination goal on the Democratic side since all Democratic primaries allocate delegates proportionally.  Both candidates are likely to come away with a sizable number of delegates but not with a lead that will change the outcome of the race.

 While polls have been all over the place, it appears that recent polls have Sanders out front by a small margin. Wisconsin has a huge university in Madison and a substantial white population. It is also in that part of the country generally known as the ‘Great Fly Over’.  This is the type of state that has trended more towards Sanders.  Clinton, however, is likely to hold her own in the rural and union/blue collar parts of the state as well as with the small but vital Hispanic, Native American, Black and Asian populations.  She’s also doing very well with Democrats and older people.  However, Wisconsin has an open primary.  Open primaries have been better for Sanders historically. They are also more difficult to predict.

The Republican side may be more interesting since Cruz is expected to win.  This is the type of state that also attracts the kinds of voters likely to go for Kasich.  The question is really a matter of turnout.  Here are some results of Wisconsin exit polls on issues.

In another new set of questions, nearly four in 10 GOP primary voters in Wisconsin say they’d “scared” of what Trump would do in office if elected president – hitting nearly six in 10 among Cruz and Kasich supporters. Those are far greater than the levels of concern among Trump supporters we see about Cruz or Kasich (fewer than two in 10 Trump supporters are scared of a Kasich win, a quarter for Cruz.)

Six in 10 overall are “excited” or “optimistic” about a Cruz presidency. Fewer, about half, are excited or optimistic about a Kasich presidency, declining to just over four in 10 for Trump.

Outsider

Nearly half of GOP voters want someone with experience in politics, close to as high as it’s been so far this election cycle – and previously Trump’s won only 7 percent of these voters, vs. 33 percent for Cruz and 24 percent for Kasich. About half of voters instead say they’d like the next president to be someone from “outside the political establishment.” Trump’s previously won two-thirds of outsider voters.

Deportation

More than six in 10 GOP voters in Wisconsin think undocumented immigrants should be offered a path to legal status, on track to be the highest of any state this year (it’s topped out at 59 percent in Virginia). Only a third support deporting undocumented immigrants, fewer than in previous primaries. Deportation voters have been a strong group for Trump in previous primaries; Cruz beat Trump in recent contests (North Carolina, Missouri and Illinois) among the larger group that favors a path to legal status, and Kasich won them in Ohio.

Two news stories may start to have an effect from now until the California primaries.  The first is the release of the DC Madam list of phone numbers.  It seems to indicate that Cruz may have a DC madam issue.   Here are  the vitals of the  “John of Interest”:

 “1/26/2006,2:59,PM,GRANDPRARI,TX,214,616-3080”

The news today is filled with the interview given by Sanders to the NYDN. Sanders appears to be completely confused by the process of federal regulations and oversight as it pertains to Wall Street and Financial Institutions. I always knew he sounded vague on details but this interview shows his ignorance.   This is about as bad as recent Trump interviews.  Both appear big on their vision but extremely stupid on policy details and the workings of government.  Trump could be excused as a outsider if he were running for lower office.  Bernie, however, is a Senator.  We shouldn’t have to direct him to School House Rock for Lessons.  This is Chris Cillizza writing for WAPO.

There’s more — lots more — including an exchange over what law, exactly, Wall Street executives broke during the economic collapse and how Sanders would actually prosecute them. But the two passages above give you some idea of how the bulk of the interview went: the Daily News pressing Sanders for specifics and asking him to evaluate the consequences of his proposals, and Sanders, largely, dodging as he sought to scramble back to his talking points.

For Sanders’s critics — including Hillary Clinton — the Daily News interview is the “ah ha!” moment that they have been insisting will come for Sanders, a time when his pie-in-the-sky proposals are closely examined and found wanting. Sure, free college tuition sounds good, but how, exactly, do you pay for it? And, yes, breaking up the biggest banks seems appealing — particularly if you saw “The Big Short” — but (a) can you actually do it? and (b) what does it mean for all the people those banks employ?

A large part of Sanders’s appeal to the throngs who back him is his insistence that we are in need of a political revolution. And, for those people, the Daily News interview will be much ado about nothing. But what the interview exposes is that once the revolution happens there will be lots of loose ends to tie up. Loose ends that Sanders either hasn’t grappled with — or doesn’t want to.

As for all those geniuses like Tim Robbins who insist we’re Guam, look at this: 

Despite winning Mississippi’s Republican presidential primary by double digits, Donald Trump could turn Mississippi blue for the first time in 40 years, according to a Mason-Dixon poll released Tuesday.

So, we just have to sit through the next few weeks until the huge, diverse states get their chance to close the deal.

Meanwhile, I’d just like to state that We are ALL Guam now!!