Some Random Thoughts about the Sky Falling …

It's snowing in New Orleansnph-cachecamIt’s one of those rare things in New Orleans. It snowed like crazy this morning and I essentially had a blizzard vacation today. My campus had about 7 inches of snow and the power went off  in Hammond. Down here in NOLA, there were these big huge wet flakes that dropped for several hours.  They iced up my hibiscus, my bananas, my avocado tree, and the roads. My 12 year old lab-mix Karma was a pain to try to walk today because she’s not used to snow. Actually, she wouldn’t walk at all. She just stood there wondering why the sky was falling.

Somethings are rare.  For one, the latest government corruption case has nothing to do with any one representing me. I currently have a state senator, several school board members, and a city council man doing time on bribery and corruption cases.  There’s a Louisiana Governor in Jail right now for the same thing.  My current congressman is just waiting for his trial. Frankly, I’d like to think this current IL thing will catch a few big fish but doubt it.  Most every in Illinois knew Governor 1 was being taped, watched, and followed.  Only Candidate 5 appeared dumb or greedy enough to potentially be caught by the Fed Web.   The exciting information will come if any one from this (including Rezko) turn snitch. If you think these guys may just sing like little girls to stay out of prison, just remember that Jimmy Hoffa’s body is still missing.hoffa  This guy may have been a close associate of Obama, Rezko, Axelrod, and Emmanuel (and basically all part of the Daley Machine) but I’m thinking  the press will be shy to admit they were wrong and could reconsider their fluffing for Obama during the entire election and now.  Also, I can’t imagine any savvy pol that was not careful about what they said to Governor Number 1 when they spoke to him because it was well known the FBI were after evidence for years. If Blagovich just refuses to go any where and continues to stay on the front page, will it help or hurt Obama?  Does it detract from all the problems confronting him or add to them? 

 In the Disrict, Hell freezes over all the time. We’re watching a Republican (supposedly Reagonomics-loving) administration attempt to nationalize its second industry this year.  Banks of course were first because of the general panic..  Now it appears we’re going to nationalize our barely functional auto industry.  My prostitute-loving radical right and moralist Senator David Vitter is threatening a filibuster once the rescue plan hits the senate floor.  Isn’t it interesting how the most self-righteous Republicans are always the ones that have the weirdest sexual proclivities?  Just google Vitter and diapers and you’ll get the idea.

Meanwhile, after MONTHS of being told we were guilty of using racist, right wing Republican memes if we dared use the one’smiddle name, the ONE has decided that he is going to take the oath of office and ensure all the inaugural fal-de-ral will include the Hussein word.  Does this strike any one but me as the least bit hypocritical?  Look for Left Blogosphere to completely ignore this one so that their computers and synapses don’t blow a fuse.  Frankly, I was thrown off blogs for using the one’s name while including Hussein.  It was considered racist and it implied I was pushing the right wing meme that he was a Muslim.  Has the rule changed now the Obama has embraced it again?  Any one?

Some time it’s the sky falling. Some time’s, it’s just that rare thing like a snowfall in New Orleans. Still other times, hell is freezing over and you want to be there with a camera.

UPDATED: Here’s a shot of the Music Building at South Eastern Louisiana University in Hammond.  Seven Friggin inches!!  Unbelievable!  I never would believe I’d have this kind of a snow day down here in the tropics!  The other pic at the top is of my street from my front porch.  Karma retreated to under the bed at this point.

music-building


Trouble for Barney and Friends

I’ve got many criticisms from Leftblogosphere because I continue to criticize the lending and borrowing practices that have left Fannie and Freddie at the mercy of the taxpayer.  I believe they also contributed mightily to the problems we face now in the mortgage and financial markets.  Again, I would like to emphasis here that I a NOT against affordable housing and that I worked against redlining when I worked in the mortgage/thrift industry in the 1980s.  I do think it is completely bad banking as well as unfair to everyone involved to place people in mortgages that they cannot possibly pay.  I’ve always supported special bond financing dedicated to helping folks with either less than stellar credit ratings, first time home buyers with little to put down, or revitalizing neighborhoods where increased home ownership would help the community.  Lending to folks without income and placing anyone but the most sophisticated investor in an exotic mortgage are both completely unethical in my opinion.

Anyway, with that said, here’s some interesting news coming from the Fannie and Freddie rescue process from the AP wire.

December 9, 2008

Fannie, Freddie execs turned aside warnings

By ALAN ZIBEL   AP Real Estate Writer
Top executives at mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ignored warnings that they were taking on too many risky loans long before the housing market plunged, according to documents released by a House committee.

E-mails released by the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee on Tuesday show that former Fannie CEO Daniel Mudd and former Freddie Mac CEO Richard Syron disregarded recommendations that they stay away from riskier types of loans.

“Their own risk managers raised warning after warning about the dangers of investing heavily in the subprime and alternative mortgage market. But these warnings were ignored” by the two chief executives, said Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Calif., the committee’s chairman. “Their irresponsible decisions are now costing the taxpayers billions of dollars.”

Four former top executives of the two companies were poised to defend their stewardship in a hearing held by the House committee.

Fannie and Freddie own or guarantee around half the $11.5 trillion in U.S. outstanding home loan debt. The two companies are the engines behind a complex process of buying, bundling and selling mortgages as investments.

They traditionally backed the safest loans, 30-year fixed rate mortgages that required a down payment of at least 20 percent. But in recent years, they lowered their standards, matching a decline fueled by Wall Street banks that backed the now-defunct subprime lending industry.

Republicans blame Fannie and Freddie, and homeownership policies of the Clinton administration for sowing the seeds of the financial meltdown. Democrats defend the companies’ role in encouraging homeownership and stress that Wall Street banks ” not Fannie and Freddie ” led the dramatic decline in lending standards.

Freddie Mac last month asked for an initial injection of $13.8 billion in government aid after posting a massive quarterly loss. Fannie Mae has yet to request any government aid but has warned it may need to soon.

For years the two companies flexed their lobbying muscle in Washington to thwart efforts to impose tighter regulation.

Internal Freddie Mac budget records obtained by The Associated Press show $11.7 million was paid to 52 outside lobbyists and consultants in 2006. Power brokers such as former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Sen. Alfonse D’Amato of New York were recruited with six-figure contracts.

The more difficult questions will come next year, when lawmakers weigh what role, if any, the two companies play should play in the mortgage market.

Options include taking the companies private, morphing them into a public utility or a federal agency, or leaving them as government-sponsored entities that have private shareholders and profits, with tougher regulations.

Given this information looks truthful, my guess is that there may be some actionable lawsuits at the very least against management.  It is also possible that the overseers (read Barney and friends) could become entangled in the web of culpability.  Look for this to continue make headlines as we determine what to do with the mess these two quasi-agencies made with the mortgage market.  What role did the the folks responsible for oversight play in this mess and how will they be held to account?


Blurry Brain Syndrome

pinkyThe first day of every economics course I teach, I always describe what I call Blurry Brain.  I tell my students that they’re going to experience it frequently as they wrap their minds around the abstract theory that is taught in economics class.  Some times something will seem very clear but when they look at it again, it will look very strange and they’ll experience Blurry Brain.  Eventually, however, things should click for them as long as they stick with studying it.

In order to make it all easier, I start teaching an abstract concept and model by telling a very intuitive story.  At the root of all good theory is a story and it should make sense at the intuitive level.  Theory should reflect common sense.   After that, I explain we have to take some thing that is very intuitive and put into a place where we can study and poke at it like a scientist with a stick and a frog.  However, we don’t have frogs and sticks in our economics laboratory.  Physicists don’t have those things either.  We only have numbers and math relationships.  We have to take these very intuitive ideas and make them testable or we can’t prove if we have a valid theory.  If we don’t have theory, then we don’t have those common sense stories that guide our understanding of the world.

Theories must be testable so that they come from hypotheses that can be proved or disproved.  That is why evolution is a theory. It is testable and has been proved over and over.  God is an idea that can never be proved or tested.  God has to stay a hypothesis in terms of the scientific method because we can’t empirically test the existence of a ‘god’.  Some folks try to infer god, but when it comes to science, you pretty much have to stay within the realm of things that can be deduced from data.  If you can experience the data directly, you can test the idea or hypothesis, you can prove it true or false, and you can contribute to theory.

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Obama Team or He Man Woman Haters Club?

he-man1Just when you think the Obama team cannot disrespect women more, you find yet another misogynist in the pack.  This one really surprises me.  Politico  reports that the incoming Treasury Secretary has a problem with the FDIC’s Sheila Bair.  She is one of the FEW people in the entire bailout mess sticking up for the homeowner.  You may recall that Riverdaughter profiled her earlier on The Confluence.   I have nothing but nice things to say about her.  She is a a moderate Republican woman and she’s not part of the Obama team.  That is her supposed sin.  Congressman Barney Frank is standing up for her in a no nonsense way.

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Changing the Changie Change Thing

It’s another change that will suprise the progressives from President Select Obama.  Are you ready?

Obama shelves oil company tax after price fall: aide

 CHICAGO/WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President-elect Barack Obama is not planning to implement a windfall profit tax on oil companies because prices have dropped below $80 a barrel, an aide said on Tuesday.

“President-elect Obama announced the policy during the campaign because oil prices were above $80 per barrel,” an aide on Obama’s transition team said. “They are currently below that now and expected to stay below that.”

Oil prices have fallen from a record $147 a barrel in July to under $50 this week.

Obama, who signaled early in his campaign for the White House that he would take an active approach to oil markets as president, had planned to use the revenue from a windfall profits tax to fund a tax rebate for low- and middle-income families struggling with high energy prices.

But the aide said Obama’s presidential campaign had already taken the price drop into account six weeks ago. When Obama laid out his economic plan for the middle class in mid-October, revenue from a windfall profit tax was not included because of the price change, he said.

 stinker-cut-rateWell, isn’t that special?  How long are progressives going to be able to take one more from the Gypper and be able to walk without hobbling over from intense pain in their hinies?

So, he’s rethinking Gitmo closing, not changing the Bush tax cuts, just saying no to the windfall profits tax that was supposed to pay for health care, and appointing the same folks to cabinet positions he was criticizing just months ago?

What’s next?  Pardoning Dubya of anything remotely resembling a crime on January 20th?