Saturday Reads
Posted: November 6, 2010 Filed under: morning reads | Tags: Post 2010 election analysis, U.S. Economy 37 CommentsGood Morning!!!
File this one from The Hill under no surprises! Sean J Miller’s headline says it all: ‘Hillary voters’ abandon Democrats”. I even voted for a blue dawg congressman to become a blue dawg senator, it did no good whatsoever. I think when every one was told they didn’t need the votes, a lot of people took them seriously.
The blue-collar voters who supported Hillary Clinton’s 2008 presidential run deserted her party in droves on Tuesday, according to a new poll.
Democrats’ support from white, non-college-educated male voters dropped 12 percent from 2008, according to a survey Greenberg Quinlan Rosner conducted Nov. 2-3 for Democracy Corps and Campaign for America’s Future.
Only 29 percent of blue-collar men support Democrats in 2010, down from 41 percent last cycle, according to the survey of 1,000 2008 voters, of which 897 voted on Tuesday.
“These are gigantic losses,” Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg, whose firm conducted the survey, said on a conference call with reporters Friday.
Greenberg said President Obama and the Democratic leadership failed to articulate a clear economic message.
The process surrounding the healthcare bill, which passed in March, reinforced the perception voters’ had that the Democrats were spending too much time bickering with the GOP, increasing federal spending and listening to lobbyists instead of average people on major legislation.
I’ve been writing about one or another version of it’s the jobs stupid or it’s the economy stupid for about around two years. You’d have to really be deaf not to understand how folks are hurting for a decent wage and a decent job these days.
The more conservative side of Politico has this headline that’s a grabber too: ‘The ego factor: Can Obama change?’ I guess one of the reasons that I want to quote this some is that it interviews two Louisiana folks; James Carville and Douglas Brinkley.
“Humility is a great quality, and it’s one that people will respect,” said historian Douglas Brinkley, who teaches at Rice University. “Ronald Reagan could be seen as a polarizing presence, but he also knew how to play humble when it was necessary. Where is President Obama’s self-deprecating humor? Kennedy and Reagan could both be very self-deprecating. People liked that.”
“The worst thing that happened to Obama is he’s lost a lot of his aura. Even his friends think he’s thin-skinned and a bit highfalutin,” he said.
It’s the sort of complaint that comes to the fore in background conversations with lawmakers, lobbyists and veterans of previous administrations who interact with Obama’s West Wing staffers: that they’ve created a cult of personality around Obama, having followed their boss on his rapid and improbable ascent to the presidency. Many of these devotees do, indeed, feel that he is the political equivalent of NBA phenom LeBron James. The view is based on a belief that Obama’s outsize political skills and uncommon personal poise make him different than conventional politicians and immune to conventional political laws of gravity.
One Obama insider said it is a view that starts at the top. Having triumphed over an early perception by political insiders and many journalists that he could not defeat front-runner Hillary Clinton, Obama, this person said, frequently invokes the 2008 experience and what he believes was its lesson — always stay the course, don’t be distracted by ephemeral controversies or smart-set importuning for a change of direction.
Some believe this is an admirable instinct carried to a dangerous degree.
“Obama would sort of say, ‘Look, I’m smart. I know what I’m doing. You’ll just have to trust me,’” said Democratic strategist and commentator James Carville. “It was kind of beneath him to explain the reasons behind his actions to people — how TARP really worked, how the stimulus was helping. … You had a lot of signs — New Jersey, Virginia, Scott Brown — but they thought what they were doing was going to turn out all right.”
If you don’t read James K. Galbraith at New Deal 2.0, you really should. He’s got a great piece up over there that says Obama has to ‘break his devil’s pact with the banks to succeed’.
The original sin of Obama’s presidency was to assign economic policy to a closed circle of bank-friendly economists and Bush carryovers. Larry Summers. Timothy Geithner. Ben Bernanke. These men had no personal commitment to the goal of an early recovery, no stake in the Democratic Party, no interest in the larger success of Barack Obama. Their primary goal, instead, was and remains to protect their own past decisions and their own professional futures.
Up to a point, one can defend the decisions taken in September-October 2008 under the stress of a rapidly collapsing financial system. The Bush administration was, by that time, nearly defunct. Panic was in the air, as was political blackmail — with the threat that the October through January months might be irreparably brutal. Stopgaps were needed, they were concocted, and they held the line.
But one cannot defend the actions of Team Obama on taking office. Law, policy and politics all pointed in one direction: turn the systemically dangerous banks over to Sheila Bair and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Insure the depositors, replace the management, fire the lobbyists, audit the books, prosecute the frauds, and restructure and downsize the institutions. The financial system would have been cleaned up. And the big bankers would have been beaten as a political force.
The job market figures were released yesterday and they definitely had an impact on the financial markets. This is from Bloomberg.
Treasuries fell, with five-year note yields rising for the first time in seven days, while U.S. benchmark equity indexes gained to two-year highs and the dollar strengthened as jobs growth bolstered optimism in the economy
The 5-year Treasury note’s yield rose six basis points to 1.09 percent at 4 p.m. in New York, rebounding from a record low this week. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.4 percent to 1,225.85, its highest level since Sept. 19, 2008. The Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against six peers, snapped a three-day drop to climb from its 2010 low. Commodity indexes rose to the highest levels since October 2008 as copper surged to a 28-month high amid a mining strike in Chile.
The jobs market data itself wasn’t great but it certainly wasn’t bad. Economist Mark Thoma explains the wishy washy view.
I’ve seen some people calling this a strong report. It’s certainly better than lower job growth numbers, so it could have been worse, but in past recoveries we’ve had job growth of hundreds of thousands, far more that this. So let’s try to put it in perspective. Many people estimate that 7.5 million jobs have been lost since the start of the recession (and some people estimate it’s even more than this). Suppose it takes 100,000 jobs per month to keep up with population growth. I think it’s a bit more than this, but let’s take an estimate that is generous in terms of making up lost ground. With a net gain of 50,000 jobs (rounding from 51,000), how long would it take to reemploy the 7.5 million who need jobs? The answer is (7.5 million)/(50,000) = 150 months = 12.5 years.
Iraqi prisoners were not only abused by Americans but also by the UK. This is a horrifying report at The Guardian.
Evidence of the alleged systematic and brutal mistreatment of Iraqi prisoners at a secret British military interrogation centre that is being described as “the UK’s Abu Ghraib” emerged yesterday during high court proceedings brought by more than 200 former inmates.
The court was told there was evidence that detainees were starved, deprived of sleep, subjected to sensory deprivation and threatened with execution at the shadowy facilities near Basra operated by the Joint Forces Interrogation Team, or JFIT.
It also received allegations that JFIT’s prisoners were beaten, forced to kneel in stressful positions for up to 30 hours at a time, and that some were subjected to electric shocks. Some of the prisoners say that they were subject to sexual humiliation by women soldiers, while others allege that they were held for days in cells as small as one metre square.
Michael Fordham QC, for the former inmates, said the question needed to be asked: “Is this Britain’s Abu Ghraib?”
I can’t even think up a response to the video or information shared in that article.
Okay, so I’m going to end with another ‘no surprises here’ post. Ozzy Osbourne is actually a mutant. No really.
A study of the hard-partying rocker revealed he actually has several genetic mutations that may explain how he’s lived so long, scientists say.
Some of them “we’ve never seen before,” said geneticist Nathaniel Pearson, who was part of the team that sequenced Osbourne’s DNA for Massachusetts lab Knome Inc.
“I’ve always said that at the end of the world there will be roaches, Ozzy and Keith Richards,” the Prince of Darkness’ wife Sharon Osbourne said.
“He’s going to outlive us all. That fascinated me – how can his body endure so much.”
The 61-year-old “Black Sabbath” singer is as famous for his colossal intake as he is for his voice. He once said he did LSD every day for two years and he drank booze like water.
No surprisingly, many of the anomalies scientists discovered had to do with how he processes drugs and alcohol.
Ozzy was just here in town for voodoo fest. I imagine he left DNA samples all over the place if the scientists still are looking for more. Since it’s still the morning, I’ll treat you to some mellow Ozzy.
So, that’s my contribution today.
What’s on you reading and blogging list?
Friday Reads
Posted: November 5, 2010 Filed under: morning reads 61 Comments
Good Morning!!!
The Seattle Times announced that Sen. Patty Murray has won re-election. It was a squeaker but she pulled through. I’m sure I’ll hear about this one from my Dad. He thinks the entire population of Seattle is nutty.
As of Thursday evening, Murray was leading Rossi by more than 45,000 votes, taking 51 percent to Rossi’s 49 percent. That’s up from a 14,000-vote lead on Election Day.
According to a Seattle Times analysis, Rossi would need to get about 54 percent of the estimated 591,000 uncounted ballots statewide to overcome Murray’s lead.
But nearly 264,000 of those ballots are in King County. Murray’s already commanding lead there has only expanded since Election Day. She took 68 percent of the 69,000 King County ballots counted Thursday.
To overcome King County’s heavy support for Murray, Rossi would have to take about two-thirds of the remaining ballots in the rest of the state. So far he’s received 53.2 percent of those non-King County votes.
That made Rossi’s task virtually impossible, even though hundreds of thousands of ballots remain to be counted statewide.
The ever bombastic Allan Grayson goes out of office as bombastic as ever according to Politico. I really like what he says, but really, talk about a little too little and a little too late. Coulda, shoulda, woulda ….
“Our strategy for two years has been appeasement, and look where it got us,” Grayson said on MSNBC. “I think Democrats want to see a fighting leadership, they want to see a fighting president — somebody who actually accomplishes good things for constituents.” As examples of what Democrats should have focused on, Grayson listed the Employee Free Choice Act, immigration reform, civil rights and women’s rights.
Grayson also took a direct shot at Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, recommending that Reid read William Butler Yeats’s “Slouching Toward Bethlehem,” which contains the line “The best lack all conviction, while the worst/Are full of passionate intensity.”
Maybe he’ll primary Obama? That could at least be interesting.
The media is all chatty about the new Dubya memoir. According to the those that have leaked copies or excerpts, Bush’s lowest moment of his presidency was when Kenye West criticized him over Hurricane Katrina. The response itself counted up there with my lowest moment of his presidency, but gee, doesn’t any one think that thousands of U.S. soldiers and millions of Iraqi and Afghanistani citizens’ death would be considered a really low moment? Or, how about the torture of Iraqi prisoners? Where’s the measuring stick this guy uses? How is it denominated? Inquiring minds really find the entire concept odd.
Among other things, Bush says the lowest moment of his presidency was when rapper Kanye West declared in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina that “Bush doesn’t care about black people.” “That ‘he’s a racist,’ ” Bush told Lauer. “I resent it, it’s not true, and it was one of the most disgusting moments of my presidency.”
Bush writes, per Lauer, that he can barely think about the moment “without feeling disgust” and that it outranks people criticizing him for the war in Iraq or his efforts to cut taxes to benefit the rich.
I’d think finding out we tortured prisoners would be up there on the disgusting moments scale. Caring what Keyne West thinks about things is like a bald man obsessing on a comb.
Dr. Doom–Noriel Roubini–is out with a new column on Project Syndicate and lives up to his name. It’s my second attempt to get you interested in the currency war news too, btw. (Just-in-case you thought I’d forgotten overnight.)
The risk of global currency and trade wars is rising, with most economies now engaged in competitive devaluations. All are playing a game that some must lose.Today’s tensions are rooted in paralysis on global rebalancing. Over-spending countries – such as the United States and other “Anglo-Saxon” economies – that were over-leveraged and running current-account deficits now must save more and spend less on domestic demand. To maintain growth, they need a nominal and real depreciation of their currency to reduce their trade deficits. But over-saving countries – such as China, Japan, and Germany – that were running current-account surpluses are resisting their currencies’ nominal appreciation. A higher exchange rate would reduce their current-account surpluses, because they are unable or unwilling to reduce their savings and sustain growth through higher spending on domestic consumption.
Within the eurozone, this problem is exacerbated by the fact that Germany, with its large surpluses, can live with a stronger euro, whereas the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain) cannot. On the contrary, with their large external deficits, the PIIGS need a sharp depreciation to restore growth as they implement painful fiscal and other structural reforms.
A world where over-spending countries need to reduce domestic demand and boost net exports, while over-saving countries are unwilling to reduce their reliance on export-led growth, is a world where currency tensions must inevitably come to a boil. Aside from the eurozone, the US, Japan, and the United Kingdom all need a weaker currency. Even Switzerland is intervening to weaken the franc.
So, this means, for the short term, stuff may be a little cheaper for us. However, in the long run, this rush to lower exchange rates will drag down our wages too and it will be destabilizing because no one will know how low things will go. Any time you add risk to a market, you’re going to get pull back in risk taking. That means a lot of businesses will think twice before expanding and of course that makes hiring iffy too. I’ll have some more on this later today.
I’m not sure you read this in the down page links yesterday, but Democratic Blue Dawg Heath Shuler from North Carolina says he’ll challenge Nancy Pelosi for the minority leader position. Given the number of lost blue dawg seats, I’m not sure how that will come out, but here’s a link to TPM that covers his thoughts.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi hasn’t announced whether she’ll retire, continue to serve in Congress, or even seek a leadership role in the next Congress, but already one of the House’s most conservative members is trying to undercut her. Rep. Heath Shuler (D-NC), who dodged the shellacking on Tuesday, says if Pelosi makes a play to be Minority Leader, he’ll run against her.
“If there’s not a viable alternative — like I said all along — I can go recruit moderate Members to run in swing districts,” Shuler said. “In that situation, I could do it better than she could, and that’s what it’s going to take. It’s going to take moderate candidates to win back those seats.”
Why don’t they just all re-register as Republicans and get it over with?
One last thing from Der Speigel that grabbed my attention. I think it was the headline: ‘A Settling of Accounts with Mr. Perfect’ that really did it.
To the right he is confronted by the stark hatred of the Tea Party movement. In the political center, voters abandoned Obama in droves. And on the left there are complaints that instead of Mr. Change, Obama has turned into Mr. Weakling. Young voters and African Americans are, of course, still behind Obama, but many of them didn’t even bother to cast their ballots on Tuesday.
The debacle, the largest loss of seats for the president’s party in more than half a century, isn’t just a warning for Obama. It is a demolition. For two years, Obama was allowed to hope that he had managed to capture the heads of American voters in addition to their hearts. In fact, however, he only managed to find his way to their hearts, and only for a short time.
The Country’s Lecturer-in-Chief
America, indeed the entire world, fell in love with the idea in November, 2008 of having a young, black president in the White House. Voters felt that they could be a part of the change that they so wanted — a change that Obama promised so eloquently.
But the voters’ affection evaporated quickly. Campaigns are like poetry, it is said, whereas governing is prose. To be sure, the crises Obama faced when he took the oath of office were enormous. But so too were the opportunities — like that of explaining to Americans how urgently reforms were needed.
Obama, the great communicator, turned into the country’s lecturer-in-chief. His reforms required a vision to give them an overarching structure. But instead, Obama preferred to go on about the failures of his predecessor George W. Bush, who had long retired to his ranch in Texas. Or else he analyzed how the impact of the global recession would have been far worse without him and his economic rescue team.
His advisors seem to still believe that the public just doesn’t understand how much good Obama has achieved, from health care reform to tougher regulations for the Wall Street gamblers.
They may well be right. But they are not doing the president any favors. No American without work wants to hear how the unemployment figures would be at 15 percent instead of 10 percent if it were not for the man in the White House. And no one casts their vote out of gratitude.
Read the entire thing. It reads like an Obot Obit. Okay, well, I’m still trying to sort things out on the PC and the new Blackberry. So, I’ll turn the discussion and the link suggestions over to your capable hands.
What’s on your reading and blogging list today?
Thursday Reads
Posted: November 4, 2010 Filed under: morning reads 81 Comments
Good Morning!
I’m so glad to be able to surf the web again with my morning coffee!! It’s become such a ritual for me that living without it has been difficult. It’s just not easy doing it on that little tiny BlackBerry screen.
So, I thought I’d start with some economic threads today. Some economists are beginning to decipher the election and what it might mean for the economy. The first link is from Mark Thoma who writes on what the election might mean for financial reform. Will the Republicans try to repeal Dodd-Frank or block Basel 3? Both are important to bringing translucency to the financial markets. Basel 3 is specific to banking and is the international standard for capital and reporting requirements. Thoma takes some of the major new Regs one by one. That coverage alone is worth the read.
At least for the next two years, we should not expect any big changes. If there are changes, they will likely be incremental and move toward less rather than more strict regulation. In the longer run, i.e. beyond the next two years, if there is divided government then gridlock is likely to persist and there will be no big changes. If Democrats retake control, the tilt will be toward stricter regulation and enforcement, but I wouldn’t anticipate any major new regulatory initiatives. However, if Republicans take broad based control, we should expect an attempt to undue many of the more restrictive provisions of recent bills, regulations, and agreements as the free market approach they favor would be likely to prevail.
The Curious Capitalist at Time Magazine–Michael Schuman–thinks the election results will be bad for the world economy. All of us economist types seem to be using the G word. GRIDLOCK. This is his gridlock point. There are more, so be sure to check it out.
First, we’ve got the gridlock problem. A divided Washington probably means that not much will get done to aid the stalling U.S. recovery. Forget about a second stimulus. We’re more likely to see extra pressure on Obama to cut spending. And that’s not good for growth. Longer-term issues, such as financial reform, could just drift.
The FED continues with the next phase of Quantitative Easing. I’m not sure what all is included with its purchase requirements yet, but the basic idea is to get paper investments off the books of banks and give them money instead. They can’t just sit on cash because there’s no return. If they want profits they’ll need to invest or loan it to catch their arbitrage profits. Will they loan it out this time or where will it go? No one can ever tell for sure but the FED hopes it will be used for loans. Especially, in an economy like this. Here’s a FAQ on the QE from Real Time Economics at the WSJ. I promise I’ll write more on this as soon as my laptop looks normal again. That and I’m curious about the currency war possibilities. Look for it some time this week. Meanwhile, back to the QE FAQ and the big question.
Why is the Fed planning another round of QE?
Even though the Fed has been holding short-term interest rates near zero since December 2008, the economy remains weak. The Fed is falling short on its two primary mandates: unemployment, at 9.6%, is well above “maximum sustainable employment” and inflation is running below what the Fed considers to be “price stability,” an informal target of 1.75% to 2%. Fed officials believe more bond-buying could push rates even lower, though they admit the effect may not be as pronounced as it was before. “The impact of securities purchases may depend to some extent on the state of financial markets and the economy,” Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in late August. “For example, such purchases seem likely to have their largest effects during periods of economic and financial stress, when markets are less liquid and term premiums are unusually high.”
[MABlue here] For those of you who are not very well versed in the world of finance, here’s is a good video from Market Place. The guy does a pretty good job in his grosso modo explanation of Quantitative Easing.
On the day after Republicans reclaimed control of Congress, a Democratic lawmaker said he will introduce a measure that would “disavow” the impeachment of former President Clinton.
Rep. Chaka Fattah (Pa.) said that the resolution is necessary so that Democrats and Republicans can work together in a bipartisan fashion.
“As we enter a period in which bipartisanship will be a major priority for the Congress, it is vital that we disavow the most highly partisan example of the politics of personal destruction in the recent history of this House,” Fattah said in a statement.
The last time they were in power, House Republicans impeached Clinton for allegedly perjuring himself over his supposed affair with White House intern Monica Lewinsky. Clinton, only the second president in history to be impeached, was eventually acquitted at trial in the Senate.
Does any one else find this a little weird? And, let’s add another one the the weird pile from Ben Smith over at Politico. This one is on “HillBill”. Actually, it’s just a picture of SOS Clinton in New Guinea with some glib comment about how she’s in the right place at the right time. (sigh). Couldn’t he just say something nice about the trip?
The Guardian has an interesting piece up on Election Day Turnout. It is–as they say–a numbers game.
Here, as far as I can see, are the three big top-line differences:
1. The 2008 electorate was 74% white, plus 13% black and 9% Latino. The 2010 numbers were 78, 10 and 8. So it was a considerably whiter electorate.
2. In 2008, 18-to-29-year-olds made up 18% and those 65-plus made up 16%. Young people actually outvoted old people. This year, the young cohort was down to 11%, and the seniors were up to a whopping 23% of the electorate. That’s a 24-point flip.
3. The liberal-moderate-conservative numbers in 2008 were 22%, 44% and 34%. Those numbers for yesterday were 20%, 39% and 41%. A big conservative jump, but in all likelihood because liberals didn’t vote in big numbers.
So, I’m still trying to rediscover all my old links and haunts. I’m relying on you to help me for awhile. I crashed while I was spiffing up the place so I need to get on with that. Any suggestions?
What’s on your reading and blogging list today?
Wednesday Reads
Posted: November 3, 2010 Filed under: morning reads 78 Comments
Welcome to Gridlock! It wasn’t an election sweep by Republicans but it wasn’t a great show by the Democratic party either. We know a few things: Agent Orange will be the House Speaker and the Senate Democratic majority has narrowed. A few good ones have fallen (e.g. Russ Feingold). A few bad ones are in (e.g. Rand Paul). And I will be less hobbled when the mighty FEDEX fleet arrives at my front door today to deliver a new harddrive for my computer and a new BlackBerry to replace the one with the dead expensive battery. Other than that, just like SCOTUS, every thing will depend on the very few folks that are willing to work to find middle ground.
Consensus can be so elusive in a democracy.
Here’s the take about the House take over from MSNBC.
Still, the returns signaled a hurricane of voter discontent with Obama and Democrats in general, as Americans delivered their verdict on the president’s far-reaching health care law and economic relief efforts.
You can only imagine what kind of images the word hurricane brings to my mind. I listened last night to the future Speaker’s remarks that represent the worst of voodoo economics. We’re in a fragile economy and thinking that a few tax cuts for the wealthy is going to heal the economy is craziness. The deficit will heal only when the economy is strong. The economy will be strong when wages are strong and the job market is strong. That’s the ‘real’ economy. Banks are just a pass through. If the Dem’s hadn’t taken their eye of the ball, the return of voodoo economics to the house would have been an impossibility.
That is all.
I know I said that my overwhelming feel was that all politics is local, but I have to admit that the loss of Senator Russ Feingold makes me very sad. So much for thinking there were a few places where reason prevailed.
Feingold, one of the most liberal members of the Senate, had trailed much of the race. He was challenged by Johnson, a businessman, over his support for President Barack Obama’s healthcare overhaul, and over government spending.
It’s not the size that matters. It’s the future growth. It’s the interest rate. It’s the state of the economy. Deficits are relative. Deficits come from many things. Balanced Budgets are not the holy grail. You shouldn’t overspend in a good economy and you shouldn’t underspend during a bad economy. I’m not sure why so many folks that think they are pro-commerce believe they know best when their economic ideology is ruled by flawed concepts, but I do know that until most politicians come in with some economic knowledge under their belt, we’re doomed.
With all the election weirdness last night, there is one bright spot: Lexington Kentucky elected its first openly gay mayor. They may have cursed us with Rand Paul as a senator, but some parts of Kentucky see the future.
Kentucky’s second-largest city has elected an openly gay man as its next mayor. Vice-Mayor Jim Gray was victorious tonight in his second campaign for the city’s top job, beating incumbent Mayor Jim Newberry.
“This is a tremendous victory for Lexington, for Kentucky’s LGBT community and for fairness. We are proud of Jim Gray and his fantastic campaign staff who fought hard for this win,” said Chuck Wolfe, Victory Fund’s president and CEO.
So, my next big question is this. Since Democrats will keep control of the Senate, what does this mean for Senate Majority Leader? Harry Reid returns to the Senate. Can we assume he will continue his role?
On a personal note, I’d like to mention that Skydancing is evolving. Two weeks ago, I looked at this as nothing more than my file cabinet. It’s now becoming a real team effort and a real community effort. The bounty of community is something I respect, appreciate, and cherish. No matter the differences or distances, there is always something we can learn from each other. Thank you for your support, your voice, and your friendship. I wish BostonBoomer and her mom a safe trip to Indiana and I look forward to a valued voice from a respected happy friend. She has challenged me to stand up for what I believe in during times when going along seemed the easy path. She’s one strong woman and she has a voice of wisdom. When she speaks, I listen. I am so pleased that she will continue to share her voice wiith all of us. She’s got mad research skills and I’m anxiously waiting to learn more from her.
(Also, I just wanted you to know that I appreciate all the tips and I’m sharing it with BB just so you know. We’ve been a team for awhile and I owe a lot to her guidance. So, after some thought I felt that any donations to skydancing shoud be team donations.)
Okay … let’s just say when the hard drive comes in, the sharing will increase. I will be much more able to search out things so, today I am relying on community and friends! The presentation went fine. I’m sleeping in late but I know you all will make it work!
So, what lessons do you think were learned last night? What messages were sent?
Does it change anything?
What’s on your reading and blogging list this morning?
Monday Reads
Posted: November 1, 2010 Filed under: morning reads | Tags: midterm elections, Politico, protesting, Russ Feingold 32 Comments
Good Morning!!!
It’s the morning before America gets to grind its axe in polling places around the country. It’s still looking bleak for the Democratic Party and even though Michael Steele was managing expectations yesterday, the Republicans still seem poised to get control of the House.
This is from Alex Isenstadt at Politico. Be sure to check it out because the Biden picture at the top is just a hoot!
There is nearly uniform consensus among Democratic campaign professionals that the House is gone — the only question, it seems, is how many seats they will lose.
While few will say so on the record for fear of alienating party officials or depressing turnout, every one of nearly a dozen Democratic House consultants and political strategists surveyed expect a GOP majority to be elected Tuesday — the consensus was that Democrats would lose somewhere between 50 and 60 seats.
A senior party consultant who was on the low end with his predictions said the party would lose between 40 and 50 seats. On the high end, one Democratic consultant said losses could number around 70 seats.
Be prepared for Agent Orange as Speaker of the House. Gridlock may become our best friend if he gets into his agenda. There’s also an article there by Ben Smith on Russ Feingold’s last stand. If we lose him to this sudden plague of locusts that’s infested politics the last couple of years it will be a damned shame.
But Feingold appears on the brink of going down in a national tide that’s blind to distinction. Infuriatingly to the Wisconsin Democrat, he’s been painted not as a leftist — the usual attack against him — but as, of all things, a Washington insider. He’s been forced to defend a claim to independence that he feels is self-evident – “A guy did his doctorate at Princeton on this,” he says indignantly – against an opponent who likes to ask, what kind of a maverick would vote for this year’s health care overhaul?
Meanwhile, on the economic front, Dean Baker, Brad DeLong and Mark Thoma do what I really didn’t want to do yesterday. They ventured into David Broder’s silly piece about escalating the hostilities with Iran so we could boost the economy. Broder needs to be gagged. Those three said about the same thing but with much more clarity and data so I’ll send you to them this morning to see for yourself. Thoma says he doesn’t think he’s capable of that much shrill, Baker says the Broder column wasn’t a joke, and Delong says thinks there should be resignations at WAPO all day along over the mere hint of something stupid like that, let alone the out and out suggestion.
Here’s a bit of a Baker:
If spending on war can provide jobs and lift the economy then so can spending on roads, weatherizing homes, or educating our kids. Yes, that’s right, all the forms of stimulus spending that Broder derided so much because they add to the deficit will increase GDP and generate jobs just like the war that Broder is advocating (which will also add to the deficit).
So, we have two routes to prosperity. We can either build up our physical infrastructure and improve the skills and education of our workers or we can go kill Iranians. Broder has made it clear where he stands.
The Washington punditry clearly needs a house cleaning. Oh, speaking of which, we were discussing the lost ‘art’ of protesting some yesterday. Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism has a great editorial up on how protesting works. Wow!!! Image that!!!
It’s astonishing to see how Americans have been conditioned to think that political action and engagement is futile. I’m old enough to have witnessed the reverse, how activism in the 1960s produced significant advances in civil rights blacks and women, and eventually led the US to exit the Vietnam War.
I’m reminded of this sense of despair almost daily in the comments section. Whenever possible action steps come up, virtually without fail, quite a few will argue that there is no point in making an effort, that we as individuals are powerless.
I don’t buy that as a stance, particularly because trained passivity is a great, low cost way to hobble people who have been wronged.
It’s nice to know that it’s not just us, it’s just not the US, and it’s not all in our heads. The quote concerning the Brits and their Banksters made me realize that a lot more of us are in this together than we think.
Well, I have to go to university today to do my research work since my hard drive is dead and I haven’t got notification about when the new one gets delivered. Supposedly, by Thursday. I have a replacement blackberry on the way too. The Blackberry ap for WordPress has been a heaven send this weekend.
Hopefully, you can look forward to some new voices on the frontpage as well as familar ones this week as we seek to expand our issues and discussion forums here! Guess that does bring some meaning to the old saying that when one door shuts another one opens. We’ll let it be a surprise unless any of them want to self-announce right now!
So, what’s on your reading and blogging list today?
peej
Carissa
bostonboomer
dakinikat
ecocatwoman
mablue2
Mama Lopez
peggysue22
quixote
skydancingguestblogger
Mona (aka Wonk the Vote)
Sky Dancing 
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