Finally Friday Reads: “Historic Failure”

“Tariff Man doing Tariff Man stuff..” John Buss,@repeat1968

Good Day, Sky Dancers!

Last night, I dreamed I had been to an amusement park where everything spun oddly and fell apart.  Guess who followed me around his theme park at one point shoving his hands down my shirt to grab my tits until a nice black lady in a black suit with sun glasses on said “Sir, you really shouldn’t do that.” I pressed an elevator at one point, and some skinny, red-headed white guy in a flannel shirt on the other side of what turned out to be a duo door elevator had the ground pulled out from under him.  The ground below him started dropping.  All I could do was watch from the other side. There were guys everywhere with stacks of boxes, trying to sell stuff they wouldn’t let you see.  All the time #FARTUS just followed me, bragging about each ride that was more dangerous than the next.

I doubt I need a Jungian psychologist to decode all that. A lot of my time was spent trying to get children to get off and get out of here before they were hurt.  Oddly enough, I was more fascinated during the dream than anything else. It was a bit like a Salvador Dali show. Maybe some of the celebratory herb wafting from the 4/20 Party at the bar on the corner got into my bedroom.  Who knows?  I woke up thinking, “What a Long Strange Trip It’s Been.”  I heard a lot of Grateful Dead on Temple’s last walk of the day.

I might have foretold the White House Easter Egg Roll, where all those folks get to see 30,000 donated eggs from the American Egg Board, while your average kids get to eat and dye something altogether different.  #FARTUS rejected the idea of using plastic.  Don’t forget to watch for “The American Egg Board to Present 48th First Lady’s Commemorative Egg to Melania Trump at 2025 White House Easter Egg Roll.”  It adds a “let them eat eggs”  mode to the event.  Yes, John, your dark muse is back.  John Buss has a cartoon for everything.  I don’t know what my posts would be without him up there with the Featured Funny.

Trump’s 100th day in office officially happens this month on the 30th.  So far, not good. This headline in the Washington Post, attached to an op-ed analysis from Dana Milbank, grabbed me.  And not by the you know what. “Trump is wrapping up 100 days of historic failure. America has seen ruinous periods, but never when the president was the one knowingly causing the ruin. It will be far worse if Trump tries to illegally remove Fed President Jerome Powell from his post. He’s trying to blame Powell for this mess. I’m not sure who will be dumb enough to take that bait, but I do know that Republicans won’t stand in his way of his lawlessness, as usual.

“By any reasonable measure, President Donald Trump’s first 100 days will be judged an epic failure.

He has been a legislative failure. He has signed only five bills into law, none of them major, making this the worst performance at the start of a new president’s term in more than a century.

He has been an economic failure. On his watch, growth has slowed, consumer and business confidence has cratered, and markets have plunged, along with Americans’ wealth. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that “growth has slowed in the first quarter of this year from last year’s solid pace” and that Trump’s tariffs will result in higher inflation and slower growth.

He has been a foreign-policy failure. He said he would end wars in Gaza and Ukraine. But fighting has resumed in Gaza after the demise of the ceasefire negotiated by his predecessor, and Russia continues to brutalize Ukraine, making a mockery of Trump’s naive overtures to Vladimir Putin.

He has been a failure in the eyes of friends, having launched a trade war against Canada, Mexico, Europe and Japan; enraged Canada with talk of annexation; threatened Greenland and Panama; and cleaved the NATO alliance.

He has been a failure in the eyes of foes, as an emboldened China menaces Taiwan, punches back hard in the trade war and spreads its global influence to fill the vacuum left by Trump’s retreat from the world.

He has been a constitutional failure. His executive actions, brazen in their disregard for the law, have been slapped down more than 80 times already by judges, including those appointed by Republicans. He is flagrantly defying a unanimous Supreme Court, and his appointees are facing contempt proceedings for their abuse of the legal system.

He has been a failure in public opinion. This week’s Economist/YouGov poll finds 42 percent approving his performance and 52 percent disapproving — a 16-point swing for the worse since the start of his term. Majorities say the country is on the wrong track and out of control.

Even his few “successes” amount to less than meets the eye. Border crossings are down from already low levels, but despite all the administration’s bravado, there’s little evidence of an increase in deportations. Hopes for cost-cutting under the U.S. DOGE Service, which Elon Musk originally projected at $1 trillion this year, have been scaled back to just $150 billion — and much of that appears to be based on made-up numbers.

But Trump, whose 100th day in office is April 30, has achieved one thing that is truly remarkable: He has introduced a level of chaos and destruction so high that historians are hard-pressed to find its equal in our history.

And yet, he persists.  There’s a long list that follows.  Seeing it all in print is disturbing.  Zachary Basu has another take posted on AXIOS. “Trump’s United States of Emergency. ”

In his first 100 days, President Trump has declared more national emergencies — more creatively and more aggressively — than any president in modern American history.

Why it matters: Powers originally crafted to give the president flexibility in rare moments of crisis now form the backbone of Trump’s agenda, enabling him to steamroll Congress and govern by unilateral decree through his first three months in office.

• So far, Trump has invoked national emergencies to impose the largest tariffs in a century, accelerate energy and mineral production, and militarize federal lands at the southern border.
• Paired with his assault on the judiciary, legal scholars fear Trump is exploiting loosely written statutes to try to upend the constitutional balance of power.

How it works: The president can declare a national emergency at any time, for almost any reason, without needing to prove a specific threat or get approval from Congress.

• The National Emergencies Act of 1976, which unlocks more than 120 special statutory powers, originally included a “legislative veto” that gave Congress the ability to terminate an emergency with a simple majority vote.
• But in 1983, the Supreme Court ruled that legislative vetoes are unconstitutional — effectively stripping Congress of its original check, and making it far harder to rein in a president’s emergency declarations.

The big picture: Since then, presidents have largely relied on “norms” and “self-restraint” to avoid abusing emergency powers for non-crises, says Elizabeth Goitein, senior director of the Brennan Center’s Liberty and National Security Program.

• That precedent was broken in 2019, Goitein argues, when Trump declared a national emergency in order to bypass Congress and access billions of dollars in funding for a border wall.
• President Biden stretched his authority as well, drawing criticism in 2022 for citing the COVID-19 national emergency to unilaterally forgive student loan debt.
• But Trump’s second-term actions have plunged the U.S. firmly into uncharted territory — redrawing the limits of executive power in real time, and fueling fears of a permanent emergency state.

Zoom in: Trump’s justification for his tariffs cites the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which can be invoked only if the U.S. faces an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to its national security, foreign policy, or economy.

• According to the White House, America’s decades-old trading relationships — including with tiny countries and uninhabited islands — qualify as such threats.

There’s much to look forward to as we lurch towards the midterms.  Little Marco Rubio is sure fucking up the state department.  All you need to do is see a cabinet meeting. His face is telling.  He looks like the only one who knows he’s going to hell.  This is from NPR as reported by Graham Smith. “The State Department is changing its mind about what it calls human rights.”  What fresh hell is this lil Marco?

The Trump administration is substantially scaling back the State Department’s annual reports on international human rights to remove longstanding critiques of abuses such as harsh prison conditions, government corruption and restrictions on participation in the political process, NPR has learned.

Despite decades of precedent, the reports, which are meant to inform congressional decisions on foreign aid allocations and security assistance, will no longer call governments out for such things as denying freedom of movement and peaceful assembly. They won’t condemn retaining political prisoners without due process or restrictions on “free and fair elections.”

Forcibly returning a refugee or asylum-seeker to a home country where they may face torture or persecution will no longer be highlighted, nor will serious harassment of human rights organizations.

According to an editing memo and other documents obtained by NPR, State Department employees are directed to “streamline” the reports by stripping them down to only that which is legally required. The memo says the changes aim to align the reports with current U.S. policy and “recently issued Executive Orders.”

Officially called “Country Reports on Human Rights Practices,” the annual documents are required, by statute, to be a “full and complete report regarding the status of internationally recognized human rights.”

Human rights defenders say the cuts amount to an American retreat from its position as the world’s human rights watchdog.

“What this is, is a signal that the United States is no longer going to [pressure] other countries to uphold those rights that guarantee civic and political freedoms — the ability to speak, to express yourself, to gather, to protest, to organize,” said Paul O’Brien, executive director of Amnesty International, USA.

A spokesperson for the State Department declined to comment on the memo or the human rights reports. NPR confirmed the memo’s authenticity with two sources close to the process.

There is some good news on the front of Trump’s kidnapping and disappearing people to El Salvador. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) managed to get a meeting with Kilmar Abrego Garcia, as was his goal.  Historian Heather Cox Richardson, writing at her Substack, gives us some perspective.

Today, Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) posted a picture of himself with Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the Maryland man whom the Trump administration says it sent to the notorious CECOT prison in El Salvador through “administrative error” but can’t get back, and wrote: “I said my main goal of this trip was to meet with Kilmar. Tonight I had that chance. I have called his wife, Jennifer, to pass along his message of love. I look forward to providing a full update upon my return.”

While the president of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, apparently tried to stage a photo that would make it look as if the two men were enjoying a cocktail together, it seems clear that backing down and giving Senator Van Hollen access to Abrego Garcia is a significant shift from Bukele’s previous scorn for those trying to address the crisis of a man legally in the U.S. having been sent to prison in El Salvador without due process.

Bukele might be reassessing the distribution of power in the U.S.

According to Robert Jimison of the New York Times, who traveled to El Salvador with Senator Van Hollen, when a reporter asked President Donald Trump if he would move to return Abrego Garcia to the United States, Trump answered: “Well, I’m not involved. You’ll have to speak to the lawyers, the [Department of Justice].”

Today a federal appeals court rejected the Trump administration’s attempt to stop Judge Paula Xinis’s order that it “take all available steps” to bring Abrego Garcia back to the U.S. “as soon as possible.” Conservative Judge J. Harvie Wilkinson, who was appointed by President Ronald Reagan, wrote the order. Notably, it began with a compliment to Judge Xinis. “[W]e shall not micromanage the efforts of a fine district judge attempting to implement the Supreme Court’s recent decision,” he wrote.

Then Wilkinson turned his focus on the Trump administration. “It is difficult in some cases to get to the very heart of the matter,” he wrote. “But in this case, it is not hard at all. The government is asserting a right to stash away residents of this country in foreign prisons without the semblance of due process that is the foundation of our constitutional order. Further, it claims in essence that because it has rid itself of custody that there is nothing that can be done. This should be shocking not only to judges, but to the intuitive sense of liberty that Americans far removed from courthouses still hold dear.”

“The government asserts that Abrego Garcia is a terrorist and a member of MS-13. Perhaps, but perhaps not. Regardless, he is still entitled to due process.” The court noted that if the government is so sure of its position, then it should be confident in presenting its facts to a court of law.

Echoing the liberal justices on the Supreme Court, Wilkinson wrote: “If today the Executive claims the right to deport without due process and in disregard of court orders, what assurance will there be tomorrow that it will not deport American citizens and then disclaim responsibility to bring them home?” He noted the reports that the administration is talking about doing just that.

“And what assurance shall there be that the Executive will not train its broad discretionary powers upon its political enemies? The threat, even if not the actuality, would always be present,” he wrote, “and the Executive’s obligation to ‘take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed’ would lose its meaning.”

h/t to JJ

NBC News reports on Senator Holland’s meeting with Garcia. It certainly was a relief to see proof of life.

Sen. Chris Van Hollen confirmed Thursday night that he has met with Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the man whom the Trump administration said it mistakenly deported to El Salvador in March.

“I said my main goal of this trip was to meet with Kilmar. Tonight I had that chance. I have called his wife, Jennifer, to pass along his message of love. I look forward to providing a full update upon my return,” Van Hollen, D-Md., wrote on X.

Images of Van Hollen’s meeting with Abrego Garcia were first posted online by Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, who has rebuffed calls to return Abrego Garcia to the United States.

Bukele said on X after the meeting that Abrego Garcia will remain in El Salvador’s custody “now that he’s been confirmed healthy.”

President Donald Trump lashed out at Van Hollen Friday morning in a post on Truth Social, saying the Democratic senator “looked like a fool yesterday standing in El Salvador begging for attention.”

At an Oval Office meeting with Trump on Monday, Bukele argued that he didn’t “have the power to return him to the United States.”

Attorney General Pam Bondi said the same day that the United States would provide a plane for Abrego Garcia to travel back to the country should El Salvador allow his release, framing the decision as being solely in Bukele’s hands.

In a statement Thursday night, the White House called Van Hollen’s efforts in support of Abrego Garcia “disgusting” and said Trump will “continue to stand on the side of law-abiding Americans.”

Trump threats to Fed Chair Powell scare the shit out of me.  I am totally with Senator Elizabeth Warren on this statement. “Markets will ‘crash’ if Trump can fire Fed’s Powell, Elizabeth Warren warns.” You can listen to her interview at this link.   Nobel Prize-winning Economist Dr. Paul Krugman explains the dangers of a “Trumpified Fed” at his Substack today.  “Why You Should Fear a Trumpified Fed. Don’t give an abuser power that’s easy to abuse.  He even starts with the holy grail of economics charts from FRED. The Fed is a significant source of economic data. I spent hours as a new grad student in 1978 in the basement of the University of Nebraska at Omaha with a huge accounting pad and pencil in the Federal Documents area, writing down months of data to type onto punch cards with some code ordering up a graph that I had to wait hours for as I watched a huge printer spit out green bar paper.  Now it’s just a few clicks of a mouse button to get the same data from FRED.

Sometimes the Federal Reserve has extraordinary power over the economy.

Consider what happened from 1982 to 1984. For most of 1982 the U.S. economy was in grim shape. Employment had plunged, especially in manufacturing. The unemployment rate hit 10.8 percent in December (it was 4.2 percent last month.) And economic pain helped Democrats make major gains in the 1982 midterms.

But everything was about to change, thanks to the Fed. In the summer of 1982 the Fed decided to ease monetary policy. Interest rates plunged, and about 6 months later the economy began a stunning rebound, growing 4.6 percent in 1983 and 7.2 percent in 1984. Ronald Reagan claimed credit for “Morning in America,” but actually it was the Fed that did it.

This episode illustrates the Fed’s power — power that must be insulated from abuse by politicians, especially politicians like Donald Trump.

Over the past few days Trump has been demanding that the Fed cut interest rates and calling for the Fed chairman’s “termination.” It’s worth looking at what he posted on Truth Social to get a sense of how, to use the technical term, batshit crazy he is on this subject:

And we really, really don’t want someone that crazy dictating monetary policy.

The reason we don’t want politicians in direct control of monetary policy is that it’s so easy to use. After all, what does it mean to “ease” monetary policy? It’s an incredibly frictionless process. Normally the Federal Open Market Committee tells the New York Fed to buy U.S. government debt from private banks, which it does with money conjured out of thin air. There’s no need to pass legislation, place bids with contractors, deal with any of the hassles usually associated with changes in government policy. Basically the Fed can create an economic boom with a phone call.

It’s obvious that this kind of power could be abused by an irresponsible leader who wants to preside over an economic boom and doesn’t want to hear about the risks. This isn’t a hypothetical scenario. Consider what happened in Turkey, whose Trump-like president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, recently arrested the leader of the opposition. When the global post-Covid inflation shock hit, Erdogan embraced crank economic theories. He forced Turkey’s central bank, its equivalent of the Fed, to cut interest rates in the belief, contrary to standard economics, that doing so would reduce, not increase inflation. You can see the results in the chart at the top of this post.

How can we guard against that kind of policy irresponsibility? After the stagflation of the 1970s many countries delegated monetary policy to technocrats at independent central banks. Can the technocrats get it wrong? Of course they can and often have. But they’re less likely to engage in wishful thinking and motivated reasoning than typical politicians, let alone politicians like Trump.

What makes Trump’s attempt to bully the Fed especially ominous is the fact that the Fed will soon have to cope with the stagflationary crisis Trump has created. Trump’s massive tariff increase will lead to a major inflationary shock:

I’ve been using that “s” word for a while now. If Krugman uses it, run for the hills.

So, this is running long, so I’ll quit with this.  I hope your weekend is peaceful.  We’re gearing up for Jazz Fest, so I have a few more weeks of Ugly American Tourists in the hood, and then it might get more normal since Trump is decimating the tourist industry.

U.S. tourism has dropped with visits from other countries down as much as 11% in March, while more Americans are moving outside of the country to places like Canada. NBC News’ Liz Kreutz talks to USC Hospitality and Tourism Professor Hicham Jaddoud on the drop.

Maybe those disruptive Airbnb’s will be used for the people who live here.  I can only hope.

What’s on your reading and blogging list today?