Remain Calm …
Posted: October 29, 2012 Filed under: 2012 elections, 2012 presidential campaign | Tags: polls 32 CommentsThe latest republican trick is one again to attack the polls, lie about the polls, and make up shit. Here’s some great pollsplaining from one of the great
nerds of statistics and polls Sam Wang.
First, thing up … there is no Ro-mentum and Obama’s lead is static.
In either case, the overall picture is the same: a narrow Obama lead that is static – or perhaps widening. There is no evidence for Ro-mentum.
I’ve been pulling my hair out over the total lack of understanding by a lot of media punditry over white noise or random variation. I think it’s ignorance and not deliberate. Any series of numbers reported over time will go up or down randomly because that’s just the behavior of a variable reported over time. That’s when you have to apply the idea of what’s the top and bottom border of are representing random. This is measured by Standard Deviation and it’s what underlies the idea of being within the margin of error. You have to see fairly clear and sustained patterns in order to call it not random. That’s why you can’t hang on every up and down. Basically, it takes 7 ups or 7 downs to bust out of the three standard deviation realm of what’s normal. Take a look at the graph over there. It goes up and it goes down. The deal to figure out is what is ‘statistically’ significant. You can’t hang on every blip of every poll.
Poll correctness has a lot to do with the way the sample is treated. That’s the basis of the guess of how many republicans you should sample or democrats in the overall sample. You have to estimate–base on historical patterns or something else–what the patterns of voter turn out will be. That’s what most of the complaints about polls tend to reflect. These assumptions lead to weighting the samples differently. That’s why a lot of folks do meta-analysis or look at a poll of polls. This has to do with the law of large numbers which tells us that averages of averages tend to reflect reality. But, the core reality is that pollsters make money by producing accurate pictures and not by telling people what the want to hear. One legitimate concern is if you should look at all voters or likely voters. A lot of the rest of the so-called sampling biases that pundits scream about tend to be based more on wishful thinking than anything. There are some differences in terms of how statistics are used. Both Gallup an Rasmussen are median-based polls and this can make a difference when comparing to a poll that’s not based on the same metrics.
Wang points to the echo chamber and the Romney minions that are focusing on single polls and screaming or clapping.
Paul Krugman is calling out National Review Online for their attempted takedown of Nate Silver for biased methods and somehow cooking the books. Krugman writes:
This is, of course, reminiscent of the attack on the Bureau of Labor Statistics — not to mention the attacks on climate science and much more. On the right, apparently, there is no such thing as an objective calculation. Everything must have a political motive.
Now more commentators on the right, including Jay Cost (The Weekly Standard) and Jennifer Rubin (Washington Post), are getting in on the act. Wow, dogpile on the rabbit!
A popular approach to undermining technical knowledge is to throw mud, assert expertise, make picky points, and sow doubts among the less savvy. In this case, what’s the argument? The NRO writer, Josh Jordan, makes this core criticism:
When you weight a poll based on what you think of the pollster and the results and not based on what is actually inside the poll (party sampling, changes in favorability, job approval, etc), it can make for forecasts that mirror what you hope will happen rather than what’s most likely to happen.
Jordan sounds like many partisan polling enthusiasts – on both sides. However, his style of poll-dissection can very easily lead a person astray. The human mind has a large capacity for finding reasons to reject a piece of disagreeable evidence. I’ve written about this in the context of how people form false beliefs in politics (“Your Brain Lies To You,” NYT, June 27, 2008). Polling internals lend themselves very well to such “motivated reasoning.” It is always possible to find something not to like in a poll. This is why I discourage all of you from chewing over single polls.
Part of the reason that conservatives are hating on Nate Silver is that they aren’t getting the results they want. It’s the idea that if you scream loud enough, you can get things to change. Check out Silver’s latest. Romney’s chance at getting the electoral college is less than 30% which is basically where it’s been for a very long time . A few up blips do not change a long term trend unless they occur over a period of time.
Any way, calm down and let the metrics be with you. Here’s some interesting snapshots of trends on a state by state basis.
Monday Reads
Posted: October 29, 2012 Filed under: 2012 elections, Libya, morning reads | Tags: Andrew Sullivan, Benghazi, Ohio, Romney Campaign Lies 105 Comments
Good Morning!!!
All things surrounding the elections are now up to 11. I’ve seen some weird things in my days but I’m beginning to check my history books for more bizarre examples of crazy campaign antics. Andrew Sullivan turned my last week’s observation of the similarities between the election maps of 2012 and those of the US directly before the civil war into a national conversation yesterday on ABC. I’m just pointing to ABC right now because I’ve had enough virtual visitations from the KKK for the time being.
During this Sunday’s edition of ABC’s This Week, Daily Beast writer Andrew Sullivan claimed that if Republican nominee Mitt Romney wins back Florida and Virginia in the upcoming 2012 presidential election, especially due to the white vote, then the South’s electoral map will look exactly like the pro-slavery United States Confederacy during the Civil War.
This observation came in response to host George Stephanopoulos noting that the latest polls show that six out of ten white Americans intend to vote for Romney.
PBS reporter Gwen Ifill said that “we can’t ignore” the possible factor racial animus may play in deciding the election, noting that the poll indicates that, on some level, people are still willing to admit “racial bias.”
Sullivan then added: “If Virginia and Florida go back to the Republicans, it’s the Confederacy. Entirely. You put a map of the Civil War over this electoral map, you’ve got the Civil War.”
Perhaps we all really need to have a big conversation on racism in America. It appears white people think they are victims of racism while still using racial stereotypes for people of color. I’m confused. Hasn’t any one had read any literature or history on institutional racism. White people screaming racism is about like the current crop of republican men shouting they’re victims of misogyny.
Racial prejudice has increased slightly since 2008 whether those feelings were measured using questions that explicitly asked respondents about racist attitudes, or through an experimental test that measured implicit views toward race without asking questions about that topic directly.
Fifty-one percent of Americans now express explicit anti-black attitudes, compared with 48 percent in a similar 2008 survey. When measured by an implicit racial attitudes test, the number of Americans with anti-black sentiments jumped to 56 percent, up from 49 percent during the last presidential election. In both tests, the share of Americans expressing pro-black attitudes fell.
“As much as we’d hope the impact of race would decline over time … it appears the impact of anti-black sentiment on voting is about the same as it was four years ago,” said Jon Krosnick, a Stanford University professor who worked with AP to develop the survey.
Most Americans expressed anti-Hispanic sentiments, too. In an AP survey done in 2011, 52 percent of non-Hispanic whites expressed anti-Hispanic attitudes. That figure rose to 57 percent in the implicit test. The survey on Hispanics had no past data for comparison.
The AP surveys were conducted with researchers from Stanford University, the University of Michigan and NORC at the University of Chicago.
The Romney campaign continues its strategy of lying by planning on using an ad in Ohio about a false, conspiracy theory on a jeep plant closing to move to China. It’s been completely denied, debunked, and disproved so, Romney’s continuing to put it out there. They’ve even put together an ad.
As you may have heard, Romney on Thursday scared the bejeezus out of Ohio autoworkers when, during arally, he cited a story claiming that Chrysler was moving Jeep production to China. Thousands of people work at a sprawling Jeep complex in Toledo and a nearby machining plant. Many thousands more work for suppliers or have jobs otherwise dependent on the Jeep factories. It’s fair to say that they owe their jobs to President Obama, who in 2009 rescued Chrysler and General Motors from likely liquidation. If Chrysler moved the plants overseas, most of those people would be out of work.
The story turns out to be wrong. As Chrysler made clear the very next day, in a tartly worded blog post on the company website, officials have discussed opening plants in China in order to meet rising demand for vehicles there. They have no plans to downsize or shutter plants in the U.S. On the contrary, Fiat, the Italian company that acquired Chrysler during the rescue, just spent $1.7 billion to expand Jeep production in the U.S. That includes $500 million to renovate and expand the Toledo facilities, with 1,000 new factory jobs likely to follow. On Monday, about the same number of people will report for their first day of work in Detroit, when Chrysler adds a third shift to a Jeep plant it operates there.
This is as bad as all the false narratives out there being repeated about Benghazi including the completely false narrative that Hillary Clinton asked for more security and Obama denied it. Then, there’s the they didn’t send the military in to help meme that points to the White House too. All of this is patently false but still harped on by Romney surrogates. The desperation of Romney supporters is evident in all these lies. That and the contempt they must have for the American people. Even former Bush SOS Condi Rice says these Republican narratives are ridiculous.
It is being charged that requests for extra security in Benghazi were denied by the administration.
The suggestion is that the attack would have been stopped, and the ambassador still alive, if the requests had been granted.
But at a hearing of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee this month, Charlene Lamb, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State and head of the Bureau of Diplomatic Security, testified that the request was for added security in Tripoli, the capital of Libya, and not Benghazi.
The added manpower would have been based 400 miles away from the violence.
In addition, U.S. security officials report more guards could not have repelled heavy weapons used by the attackers.
The Wall Street Journal has reported “a four-man team of armed guards protecting the perimeter and four unarmed Libyan guards inside to screen visitors.”
In addition, “Besides the four armed Libyans outside, five armed State Department diplomatic security officers were at the consulate.”
There is an air of hypocrisy about this second charge from Republican critics.
House Republicans voted to cut nearly $300 million in funding from Embassy Security as part of their most recent budget.
Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) conceded this in a CNN interview.
“Absolutely. Look, we have to make priorities and choices in this country… When you’re in tough economic times, you have to make difficult choices how to prioritize this.”
Dean Baker has an excellent article up on the future of Social Security and Why Big Bucks Donors don’t like political discussions that strongly support the program. He argues that any highly vocal support of Social Security by Obama would dry up his campaign contributions.
But there is another set of economic considerations affecting the politics of social security. These considerations involve the economics of the political campaigns and the candidates running for office. The story here is a simple one: while social security may enjoy overwhelming support across the political spectrum, it does not poll nearly as well among the wealthy people – who finance political campaigns and own major news outlets. The predominant philosophy among this group is that a dollar in a workers’ pocket is a dollar that could be in a rich person’s pocket – and these people see social security putting lots of dollars in the pockets of people who are not rich.
Cutting back benefits could mean delays in repaying the government bonds held by the Trust Fund . The money to repay these bonds would come primarily from a relatively progressive income tax revenue. The wealthy certainly don’t want to see changes like raising the cap on wages that are subject to the social security tax, which is currently just over $110,000.
For this reason, a candidate who comes out for protecting social security can expect to see a hit to their campaign contributions. They also can anticipate being beaten up in both the opinion and news sections of major media outlets. While, in principle, these are supposed to be kept strictly separate, the owners and/or top management of most news outlets feel no qualms about removing this separation when it comes to social security – and using news space to attack those who defend social security.
So, that’s my offerings this morning. What’s on your reading and blogging list today?
More Endorsements
Posted: October 25, 2012 Filed under: 2012 elections, 2012 presidential campaign | Tags: endorsements, polls 80 CommentsThe last legs of presidential campaigns are filled with major endorsements and last minute polls. The WAPO editorial board and former Bush SOS
General Colin Powell have both endorsed the president.
Powell criticized Romney’s foreign policy as inconsistent and questioned the former Massachusetts governor’s ability to address the deficit and looming defense cuts.
“I’m not quite sure which Governor Romney we’d be getting with respect to foreign policy,” Powell said, calling Romney’s foreign policy “a moving target.”
As for the U.S. budget, he added: “It’s essentially, let’s cut taxes and compensate for that with other things, but that compensation does not cover all the cuts intended or the expenses associated with defense.”
Powell has been critical of Romney’s foreign policy advisers and has taken issue with the former business executive’s stance on countries such asRussia.
A moderate Republican, Powell served under President George W. Bush. Some of Romney’s advisers are more conservative veterans of the Bush administration.
“There’s some very, very strong neo-conservative views that are presented by the governor that I have some trouble with,” Powell said on CBS.
WAPO’s endorsement and the Powell endorsement were really no surprise.
We come to that judgment with eyes open to the disappointments of Mr. Obama’s first term. He did not end, as he promised he would, “our chronic avoidance of tough decisions” on fiscal matters. But Mr. Obama is committed to the only approach that can succeed: a balance of entitlement reform and revenue increases. Mr. Romney, by contrast, has embraced his party’s reality-defying ideology that taxes can always go down but may never go up. Along that road lies a future in which interest payments crowd out everything else a government should do, from defending the nation to caring for its poor and sick to investing in its children. Mr. Romney’s future also is one in which an ever-greater share of the nation’s wealth resides with the nation’s wealthy, at a time when inequality already is growing.
Even granting the importance of the fiscal issue, a case might still be made for Mr. Romney if Mr. Obama’s first term had been a failure; if Mr. Romney were more likely to promote American security and leadership abroad; or if the challenger had shown himself superior in temperament, capacity and character. In fact, not one of these is true.
The Poll Front still shows the President is likely to win the electoral college and thus, the election. A Time poll shows Obama up 5 points in the important state of Ohio which will probably determine the election result.
Buoyed by early voting in his favor, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by five points in the pivotal state of Ohio, according to a new TIME poll.
Counting both Ohioans who say they will head to the polls on November 6, and those who have already cast a ballot, Obama holds a 49% to 44% lead over Romney in a survey taken Monday and Tuesday night.
The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.
The poll makes clear that there are really two races underway in Ohio. On one hand, the two candidates are locked in a dead heat among Ohioans who have not yet voted but who say they intend to, with 45% of respondents supporting the President and 45% preferring his Republican challenger.
Even weird ol’ Joe Scarborough says: Two new polls scream ‘advantage Obama’.
Two polls released yesterday show President Obama stubbornly clinging to his electoral advantage. TIME Magazine released a new Ohio poll that has Mitt Romney trailing in the Buckeye State by 5 points. Last week’s NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist survey also had Romney behind by 5.
TIME’s poll should rattle the nerves of Romney supporters because the results run contrary to Team Romney’s ongoing claim that their internal polls show a dead heat in the Buckeye State. Maybe that’s the case among voters planning to go to the polls on election day but it looks like early voters are tilting dramatically in the president’s direction. If the TIME poll is accurate, it means Mitt Romney will have to grab most of Ohio’s remaining undecided voters if he wants to win this critical battleground state.
PPP released a Nevada survey yesterday that also shows President Obama holding a lead in this key swing state that remains outside the margin of error. Like Ohio, Nevada remains stubbornly in the Obama column. While Mitt Romney has made up ground in the three Southern swing states of Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, voters in Ohio, Nevada and Wisconsin seem do not seem inclined to be easily swept into Romney’s camp.
Obama appears to lead in Virginia also.
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Virginia, conducted on behalf of Health Care for America Now, finds Barack Obama expanding his lead in the aftermath of his debate victory Monday night. He now has 51% to 46% for Mitt Romney, up from a 49/47 advantage last weekend.
Key findings from the survey include:
-Obama’s seen a 7 point net improvement in his favorability rating among Virginia voters from a -3 spread last week (48/51) to now +4 at 51/47. Romney’s numbers have headed in the other direction. He’s dropped 7 points from a +2 spread on our last poll (49/47) to now -5 at 46/51.
-Voters trust Obama more than Romney on several major issues in the election. Those include who voters think will stand up for the middle class (52/44) and who they think will do more to protect Medicare (50/46).
-Obama leads 57/41 with women, 88/8 with African Americans, and 53/42 with young voters. Romney has a 50/45 advantage with men, a 57/41 one with whites, and a 57/41 edge with seniors. Obama’s moved from being slightly behind with independents last week at 45/44 to now slightly ahead at 47/45.
One of the weirdest observations that I’ve seen in awhile is how the US election maps seem to reflect the same kind of boundary lines we saw when we were fighting over the issue of slavery. Even actual Confederate hold outs see this. Steve Pinker has some interesting thoughts on the redness and blueness of some states. I can tell you, it’s not pleasant to live in a red state if you’re a woman, a child, or a minority. There’s an emphasis on a plantation style economy, education goals that are out of step with modernity, and ensuring the primacy of white, christian, men. Abortion and birth control restrictions, ensuring the taxes don’t impact the rich, and enacting radical religious views on all kinds of things have been their priorities. Your only hope is to stay in a red state’s biggest city or move.
Broadly speaking, the Southern and Western desert and mountain states will vote for the candidate who endorses an aggressive military, a role for religion in public life, laissez-faire economic policies, private ownership of guns and relaxed conditions for using them, less regulation and taxation, and a valorization of the traditional family. Northeastern and most coastal states will vote for the candidate who is more closely aligned with international cooperation and engagement, secularism and science, gun control, individual freedom in culture and sexuality, and a greater role for the government in protecting the environment and ensuring economic equality.
So, this election is important. We can’t afford to have these extremist religious agendas dictating our national policy. I say that as I listen to many of my friends who are rape survivors being traumatized all over again by troglodyte white, extremist christian, men who identify more with a fertilized eggs than women and children. We need to send the entire Republican agenda and its goosestepping arm of religious freaks into oblivion. PERIOD.
The Good Ol’ Days of Blogging
Posted: October 24, 2012 Filed under: 2012 elections, Democratic Politics, Domestic Policy | Tags: blogging, Blogosphere, DKos, Firedoglake, Net Roots Nation, Susie Madrak 64 CommentsI started hanging out at FDL around 2006 after being on a Democratic BBoard for years. That makes me a late-comer to the political blogosphere. I joined
Facebook when you couldn’t get on to it with anything but an academic email. My two first friends were my daughters who I stalked as the concerned mother of two teenage girls. Shortly after that, FDL folks got into Social Media and my buddy list filled up. I still have many connections there but the 2008 vibe from the site and its management still leave a taste in my mouth even though many of my friends still participate there. It’s a different world from 2004 and 2008 and perhaps it was only a matter of time before some one explored that.
TDB has an article up that features Susie Madrak and Peter Daou that you should read. It’s an interesting view back in to Netroots Bloggers ten years ago. I know BB came via the DKOS route. I joined (2004) before I joined the FDL community but really didn’t do much there. I found the diaries sort’ve trite displays of personal ego and preferred the structure of hourly new threads by folks who participated in their discussion. Many of us remember the pre-, post, and 2008 atmosphere of the leftie political blogs when we wound up being homeless . The leftie bloggers took sides–vehemently–in the primary. The safe places became fewer and fewer. Those same places are now dead end blogs. I apply this term generouslysince many of them are really right wing r*f*ing sites now that make you wonder if any of them were actual real democrats at any point in there live or supported women’s issues or anything the Clintons supported. Frankly, it’s the overt racism that gets me now more than anything as they seem to be more aligned with Pam Geller and Phyliss Schafly than Hillary Clinton.
The basic picture of Netroots–ten years after–is an affiliation in decline according to the TDB article.
Part of the Netroots decline had to do with the inevitable maturing of the movement and the simple evolution of the Internet. Ten years ago the blogs were one of the few places on the Internet where it was possible to find out what was happening in real time, as even many establishment news organizations hadn’t figured out how to move their offline print and broadcast products to the Web.
That has long since been sorted out, and in the meantime, dozens of online-only news outlets have been likewise competing for clicks and crowding out some of the proud amateurs. The political conversation, like the rest of the online conversation, has moved to Facebook and Twitter, and the bloggers steeped in an earlier Internet culture have not been able to keep up.
“Some bloggers have learned how to play well with a very dynamic Facebook community, with a very dynamic Twitter community, but a lot just don’t have the mental bandwidth,” said Henry Copeland, CEO of Blogads, which sells advertising on the Internet. “You need a density of folks who are excited about doing it. All of this stuff requires a community, and as a blogger you want to be responding to other bloggers and be in the thick of it, and the thick of things has just moved in another direction.”
The typing hordes have moved in another direction too. The pace of blogging was always punishing and nearly impossible for those who did it to keep another job. But being marginally employed loses its charm after a while, even if you are able to elect the Congress of your dreams.
“The blogosphere that we knew of in 2004 and 2008 is not what it was,” says Raven Brooks, executive director a Netroots Nation, an IRL annual meet-up. “It is still a tight community; it is just older, more established. The economy isn’t what it was then. A lot were students, and they have graduated and gone looking for jobs.”
The back half of the article is dedicated to a where are they now kind’ve narrative. Many of the original bloggers have been mainstreamed into other places and a lot of been consolidated into bigger blogs. The article argues that the blogosphere and netroots is no longer a force for Democrats.
But with another critical election two weeks away, politicians, political operatives, and even the bloggers themselves say the Netroots are a whisper of what they were only four years ago, a dial-up modem in a high-speed world, and that the brigade of laptop-wielding revolutionaries who stormed the convention castle four years ago have all but disappeared as a force within the Democratic Party.
I wonder if they would reach the same conclusion about all the right wing blogs? It seems to me that they are taken much more seriously even by the traditional press. Afterall, Susie or Peter have not been hired by CNN to talk about elections but useless pieces of flesh and oxygen like Erick Erickson are hired as ‘consultants’. I’ve never heard a serious word or thought coming from his mouth once.
So, I’m sure that the GOTV ground game this time in key states is much more important to the Democratic candidates this year than positive action from bloggers. How many of you have actually visited ACT Blue this year? Still, there are a few candidates–Elizabeth Warren and Tammy Duckworth come to mind–that are still getting the benefit of the lose affiliation and affinity that happens on line between liberal activists and liberal bloggers. Where it will go in the future is any one’s guess at this point. I just know that I feel much more connected to democracy by participating. I also know that it’s one of the few places you can still go to get good conversations on extremely important things ignored by the MSM like drones, kill lists, and income inequality. So, call me a lifer.
Indiana Senate Candidate Richard Mourdock: Pregnancies from Rape are “God’s Will”
Posted: October 23, 2012 Filed under: 2012 elections, U.S. Politics, Violence against women, War on Women, Women's Rights | Tags: abortion, incest, Indiana Senate race, rape, Richard Mourdock 27 CommentsIn a debate with his two rivals tonight Tea Party Senate candidate Richard Mourdock stated that he believes life begins at conception, and the only cases in which abortion should be legal are when it is necessary to save the pregnant woman’s life.
Indiana Republican Senate candidate Richard Mourdock said Tuesday that sometimes God intends for babies to result from rape.
“I struggled with it myself for a long time, but I came to realize life is that gift from God,” Mourdock said at a debate (video, which was posted by the state Democratic Party, is below). “And I think even when life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that it is something that God intended to happen.”
Mourdock appeared to be choking up as he made the comments. He also noted that, while he doesn’t believe in abortion in the case of rape and incest, he does believe it should be used to save the life of the mother.
“God” intends for rapes to happen? Wow. And Hoosiers voted for this creep over Richard Lugar?
Mourdock either has no idea what happens to victims of rape and incest, which are violent criminal acts that can lead to years of psychological suffering for victims. Where do these people come from? They never express the slightest concern for the women involved in these horrendous situations or for the lifelong effects on the mother, the child, and other people close to them. Do men like Mourdock (and Todd Akin, Paul Ryan, and Rick Santorum) even believe than women are human beings?
This is an open thread.






Recent Comments