Whatever the outcomes in 2012, Women will lose

It’s becoming increasingly clear that the liberties and interests of 51% of the population will not be advanced in 2012.  At this point, the most we can hope for is for the election of Elizabeth Warren and other women and men who represent the view that women are adults and not property of the state or the men in their orbit. Plus, we should elect the ones that have shown their views are more than lipservice.  What is the price and cost of less horrible?

The rise of Radical Religionist Rick Santorum in Iowa  is just the latest affront to any one that believes that women should be the ones making decisions about their lives. Santorum believes that States should be able to outlaw birth control. He undoubtedly will not make it to the Presidential spot.  However, will Romney be desperate enough to consider him VP material?  How about the neoconfederate Ron Paul or Rick Perry?  Santorum is just the latest in a series of risers that show how bad the Republican party has become.  The problem is that this allows the alternative party to be elected by being less horrible.  Santorum is clearly horrible for women and any one that believes in a modern, secular America.

Rick Santorum reiterated his belief that states should have the right to outlaw contraception during an interview with ABC News yesterday, saying, “The state has a right to do that, I have never questioned that the state has a right to do that. It is not a constitutional right, the state has the right to pass whatever statues they have.”

…

Santorum has long opposed the Supreme Court’s 1965 ruling “that invalidated a Connecticut law banning contraception” and has also pledged to completely defund federal funding for contraception if elected president. As he told CaffeinatedThoughts.com editor Shane Vander Hart in October, “One of the things I will talk about, that no president has talked about before, is I think the dangers of contraception in this country,” the former Pennsylvania senator explained. “It’s not okay. It’s a license to do things in a sexual realm that is counter to how things are supposed to be.”

If this isn’t radical enough, consider the Santorum’s response to a 1996 pregnancy that showed that his wife was carrying a fetus with a “fatal defect“.  Miscarriages are extremely common. About 1/3 of conceptions end this way. It is a tough experience and an emotional one for many people, but it is nature’s way of dealing with severe fetal/zygote issues.  The Santorums have every right to incubate a nonviable fetus–if that’s their choice–although it’s difficult to justify the cost of such a folly to the health care system and insurance companies.  Their experience is in a book that provides some insight into a family dynamic that is beyond creepy.   Santorum and his wife brought the “corpse” home. They slept with it and made their children hold it and sing to it.  This article by Tommy Christopher is creepy also.  He calls the miscarried 20 week old fetus a newborn son and acts like their response is within some range of normal.  Remember, this wasn’t a surprise outcome. They had plenty of time to deal with this. Be forewarned, this is ghoulish.

The incident they’re referring to is the 1996 birth of a premature baby boy to Rick and Karen Santorum. The child only lived for two hours, and the Santorums dealt with the tragedy in an unusual way:

The childbirth in 1996 was a source of terrible heartbreak — the couple were told by doctors early in the pregnancy that the baby Karen was carrying had a fatal defect and would survive only for a short time outside the womb. According to Karen Santorum’s book, ”Letters to Gabriel: The True Story of Gabriel Michael Santorum,” she later developed a life-threatening intrauterine infection and a fever that reached nearly 105 degrees. She went into labor when she was 20 weeks pregnant. After resisting at first, she allowed doctors to give her the drug Pitocin to speed the birth. Gabriel lived just two hours.

What happened after the death is a kind of snapshot of a cultural divide. Some would find it discomforting, strange, even ghoulish — others brave and deeply spiritual. Rick and Karen Santorum would not let the morgue take the corpse of their newborn; they slept that night in the hospital with their lifeless baby between them. The next day, they took him home. ”Your siblings could not have been more excited about you!” Karen writes in the book, which takes the form of letters to Gabriel, mostly while he is in utero. ”Elizabeth and Johnny held you with so much love and tenderness. Elizabeth proudly announced to everyone as she cuddled you, ‘This is my baby brother, Gabriel; he is an angel.’ ”

It’s a story that I have heard mocked by many liberals (and mistold, by others, as having followed a miscarriage), and I agree with Lowry that the intensely personal arena of human grief ought not be cheapened into political fodder. Within reasonable limits, I don’t think anyone should be judged for things they say or do in the face of extreme grief.

The fact that Karen Santorum publicized the event means that, to some extent, it is an appropriate subject for public discussion, but then it should be handled in a delicate, respectful manner. While I think Lowry was taking a cheap shot of his own when he accused Colmes of “mocking” the Santorums (and with his deployment of the coded phrase “Manhattan liberals”), neither was Colmes’ characterization that they “played with” the dead child fair or particularly sensitive. He probably shouldn’t have brought it up at all, but his critique, while cold and lacking in relevance, fell well short of mockery.

UPDATE: Colmes has tweeted that he called Santorum and his wife and apologized for the comment, an apology which was accepted.

Mockery?  I’m not getting this characterization at all. They did take it home and they did “play with it”.  The Santorums were clearly told the eventual outcome of this pregnancy early on.  This wasn’t exactly a surprise.  This was a long drawn-out miscarriage.   This was not the birth of a premature baby boy.  As to the idea of playing with it, exactly how would you characterize carrying a corpse to your house, sleeping with it in a bed, singing to it, and making your children hold it?  Would it be insensitive of me to suggest that I consider what they did to their children to be a health hazard in so many ways that if I were there neighbor I would have called Child Protective Services on them?

It’s easy to pick on the Republicans here.  Keli Goff shows exactly how far each of the republican presidential wannabes have gone to turn women back into property.  (H/T to minx).  Ron Paul wants to give every body rights–including heroin addicts--just as long as they are not women, GLBT, or not white.  Rick Perry and Michelle Bachmann are just as bad and Romney’s been more than willing to sell out all of his old positions to further his political career.

Nearly forty years after Roe v. Wade, the current incarnation of the Republican Party seems determined to set the health of American women back by more than a century, with targeting abortion no longer enough. Birth control rights are increasingly in the line of fire. Perhaps even worse, the current crop of presidential candidates seem determined to treat the health, safety and rights of American women much like those cultures they often discuss with such scorn and superiority. Sharia Law has become the dirtiest of dirty words in the culture wars, particularly in America’s post 9/11 political landscape. Yet I’m at a loss to see any real difference between the manner in which Sharia Law penalizes women who are raped and Perry and his Personhood cohorts’ efforts to penalize American rape survivors with a nonconsensual pregnancy.

Taylor Marsh reminds us that our current President has done little to support women (h/t to Wonk).  This is no surprise to any of us that actually investigated his record, his words, and the kinds of people with whom he associated prior to supporting a candidate. The most Obama has done is sign laws passed to him by a democratic congress and a few suggested by his cabinet.  He’s been indifferent-to-hostile to anything that might actively return women to autonomous adult status.

Is it enough that the 111th Congress passed the Lily Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, which Pres. Obama signed? Women of all political persuasions need to expect all 21st century politicians to support economic equality. We should also demand that when it’s found out we aren’t being treated equally we have recourse, which is what Ledbetter is all about. Would any other Democratic president not have signed the Ledbetter Act? To laud something so simple as financial equality for the same job done reveals women are expecting way too little from politicians that depend on our support to politically survive.

Obama’s constant chant on reforming entitlements, including changing COLA on Social Security, would hit women the hardest, because in older age we are more likely to depend on it, a subject I’ve written on before (here, here).

Research from IWPR has shown the current Social Security program is a mainstay for women, and these findings have been supported by research from other organizations. Adult women are 51 percent (27 million) of all beneficiaries, including retirees, the disabled, and the survivors of deceased workers (52.5 million). Women are more likely to rely on Social Security because they have fewer alternative sources of income, often outlive their husbands, and are more likely to be left to rear children when their husbands die or become permanently disabled. Moreover, due to the recession many women have lost home equity and savings to failing markets. Older women—and older low income populations in general—have become more economically vulnerable and dependent on Social Security benefits. – IWPR

On “reforming” entitlements, Pres. Obama comes down the same place as Republicans, though he’s the moderate conservative, so we can expect entitlement “reform” to happen regardless of who is in the White House. In his last political term, why wouldn’t Mr. Obama join with Republicans? If the Senate goes GOP, he’ll even have an excuse. Meanwhile, there’s no one suggesting that the limit on income taxed for Social Security be raised for the wealthy, with Democrats caving again and again on a millionaire surtax, so the progressive argument is not only weakly offered, but also never fought strategically.

Clearly, women will be worse off under any Republican.  The “less horrible” meme has driven the gender voting gap for quite a few elections now.   Is this a good enough excuse for any of us to continue to vote for a party that marginalizes our interests and chips away at our rights while talking a good game?  Every time Obama is off script it’s pretty clear that he believes that men in orbit around women should have some kind of veto on the kinds of decisions that define a person’s autonomy.  This was apparent from the Plan B decision and the decision to cave to extremist interests during the health plan debate.  Exactly how far off is this from Santorum’s view of wife as incubator to an ongoing miscarriage?  Yes.  It’s less bad but still BAD.

However, you and I have both seen the polls recently.  Clearly, Obama has to fish or cut bait with many of his potential supporters, including women.  It’s hardly a surprise that there was one woman-friendly policy stuck into all those executive orders and signing opportunities recently dealt with the realm of foreign policy.  Secretary Hillary Clinton has put the rights of women and children in a front and center position of State House policy and action.  I think we know where this idea originated.

President Obama this week released a groundbreaking new plan and issued an executive order to increase U.S. support for strengthening the participation of women around the world in ending conflict and securing peace.

The first-ever U.S. National Action Plan on Women, Peace, and Security (PDF) and the accompanying executive order are a “fundamental change in how the U.S. will approach its diplomatic, military, and development-based support to women in areas of conflict,” according to the White House.

The plan identifies objectives that will guide participating U.S. agencies seeking to increase women’s participation in their handling of international aid, development, and security work. Among the goals are ensuring that the U.S. is “promoting and strengthening women’s rights and effective leadership and substantive participation in peace processes, conflict prevention, peacebuilding, transitional processes, and decision-making institutions in conflict-affected environments. “

To ensure accountability for meeting the goals in the plan, Obama also signed an executive order that assigns implementation officers and calls for participating agencies to submit action plans to the National Security Advisor.

Yes. Signing it is less bad than not signing it.  However, did you know about this?  Where’s the active advocacy?  The forceful announcement?

These policy changes seem few and far between. Right now, the HHS Department is considering regulations that would restrict women’s access to private insurance plans that contain birth control coverage and coverage of abortion services. This battle against religious extremism and its need to inflict narrow religious viewpoints into areas of women’s health calls for strong, aggressive and outspoken leadership.  Even if Rick Santorum proves the flavor–excuse me for using that word combined with his name–of the month, the creep of his mindset into law continues.

What we’ve been getting from this administration are a few safe marginal policies and actions that even a blue dog democrat could support. Then there is the larger creeping of the impact of the combined and exponential sell outs.   There is a fear that Obama will once again cave into the demands of the US Catholic Bishops and remove access to reproductive health from private insurance plans. The bishops are hiding behind “religious liberty” in the same way that slaveowners once held up the bible to justify owning other human beings.  Consider this characterization of a recent meeting between the bishops and the President.

Nevertheless, the bishops remain a forceful political lobby, powerful enough to nearly derail the president’s health care overhaul two years ago over their concerns about financing for abortion. Last week, the White House, cognizant of the bishops’ increasing ire, invited Archbishop Dolan to a private meeting with President Obama, their second. Archbishop Dolan said they talked about the religious liberty issue, among others.

“I found the president of the United States to be very open to the sensitivities of the Catholic community,” Archbishop Dolan said in the news conference. “I left there feeling a bit more at peace about this issue than when I entered.”

We’ve seen exactly how negotiable the rights of women have become since the Republicans have relegated women to property and biblical stereotypes. This should be a concern for all of us.  Is there any way for us to support a party or a president that decides to marginalize the concerns of over half the population and considers our issues and autonomy to be bargaining chips for bigger agendas?  How do we parlay their need for our votes into something more than lip service?  Do we vote for the Elizabeth Warrens and skip the rest?   We’ve been taken for granted for some time now.  It’s time to develop a strategy that gets results because this time they’re going to need really need us.


Monday Morning Reads

Good Morning!  It’s a New Year! It’s a new day!

It’s also the start of the election season.  Here are the dates of the Republican caucus and primaries scheduled for this month:

January 3, 2012 Iowa caucus
January 10, 2012 New Hampshire primary  
January 21, 2012 South Carolina primary
January 31, 2012 Florida primary

As you can see, there are four contests up for grabs in four very distinct states. Remember that there are “no winner take all” events so any splits will actually count and this could drag on for some time.  We will be live blogging the Iowa caucuses tomorrow night.  What may end some of these candidates dreams could be the lack of funds if they don’t win, place or show.

The Des Moines Register ‘s last poll shows:

… Mitt Romney in the lead (but not above 25%), Ron Paul a close second, and Rick Santorum surging in third place. The numbers from the poll conducted Dec. 27-30 of 602 likely caucus-goers: Romney 24%, Paul 22%, Santorum 15%, Gingrich 12%, Perry 11%, and Bachmann 7%. But get this about Santorum’s surge: In the Des Moines Register’s final two days in the field, he jumped into second place and was running neck and neck with Romney. “[Santorum] averaged 10 points after the first two nights of polling, but doubled that during the second two nights. Looking just at the final day of polling, he was just one point down from Romney’s 23 percent on Friday.”

Just so you know, Santorum is itching to start a war with Iran.  Santorum’s appearance Sunday on ABC was an eyebrow raiser.  Let’s home this man gets no where near Washington power circles ever again.

Rick Santorum said today that would be in favor of launching airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities.

“We will degrade those facilities through airstrikes, and make it very public that we are doing that,” Santorum said on “Meet the Press.”

Iran announced today that it had created the country’s first nuclear fuel rod, a key component in a reactor that can also be used to produce weapons grade uranium.

Several of the GOP candidates have expressed increased concerns over Iran’s nuclear program after the International Atomic Energy Agency released a report that says Iran is making progress.

The Obama administration hasn’t responded to Iran’s latest claim but it has already levied coordinated economic sanction against Iran.

Newt Gingrich is only other candidate in the race who has said he is would support bombing Iran, although he said he would only do it as a last resort and as part of a plan to replace the leadership in Iran.

Well, it’s official.  Approximately half of Americans are poor.

While it’s no surprise that nearly 50 million Americans live below the poverty line, new statistics from the US Census show that almost 100 million others are counted as low-income citizens, making half of the population of America officially poor.

The latest figures out of the US Census Bureau show that in addition to the 49.1 million Americans who fall below the official poverty line, those that rake in enough to be between that level and the income equitable to double it fall into a new “low-income” category, which counts an additional 97.3 million people. Altogether, that clump of nearly 150 million Americans living in dire economic standing accounts for around 48 percent of the US population.

American officials have deemed the current poverty line to be at around $22,000 for a family of four, but the new category just about doubles that figure to $45,000 and places those that fall between the numbers as low-income. The Associated Press reports that for families that fit in that range, often half of the household income is spent on child-care costs and housing bills.

The New Republic has a list up of the most overlooked stories of 2011.  Here’s one that I found interesting.

John Judis: The Subversion of the Do Not Call Registry

The great under- or, better, un-covered story of the year: Cardholder Services and the Do Not Call Registry. You don’t know what I’m talking about? That’s because you don’t work at home. George W. Bush’s administration invaded Iraq and let Bernie Madoff run wild; but to its credit, it established the Do Not Call Registry to block telemarketers from flooding our telephones with unwanted offers. After I registered my phone number on the Federal Trade Commission’s web site in 2004, the phone calls virtually stopped. But guess what? Under the Obama administration, which claims to understand the power and wisdom of government regulation, they’ve begun again. I get seven or eight a day now (mostly I don’t answer them), including to my cell phone, where I get charged for them. Many of them have been from an outfit called “Cardholder Services.” And it’s not just me. Google “cardholder services” and you’ll find a plethora of complaints. I have already filed complaints with the FTC twice this year, and the second time I asked for an acknowledgement. But I never heard back, and the phone calls continue. A little while ago, I got a call on my cellphone from a number in Salem, Oregon. 503-902-8252. Complaints about this number are all over the web. So the Obama administration has not followed through on the one thing that the Bush administration did right.

George Monbiot’s latest is a must read.  It’s called “How Freedom Became Tyranny” and it’s all thanks to those zany libertarians.  Read the arguments.  Here’s the punchline.

Modern libertarianism is the disguise adopted by those who wish to exploit without restraint. It pretends that only the state intrudes on our liberties. It ignores the role of banks, corporations and the rich in making us less free. It denies the need for the state to curb them in order to protect the freedoms of weaker people. This bastardised, one-eyed philosophy is a con trick, whose promoters attempt to wrongfoot justice by pitching it against liberty. By this means they have turned “freedom” into an instrument of oppression.

So, that’s it for me this morning.  It’s been quiet around here so hopefully, things will liven up tomorrow. What’s your reading and blogging list today?

 


Of BoobPads and BoobPhones

I remember that at some point in my early childhood that dressing me up in a cowgirl outfit and putting me in front of the TV on my stuffed, pillow-like horse to watch Captain Kangaroo or the Lone Ranger turned from cute to too much.  I had other childhood occupations besides spending time outdoors with friends. One was practicing my piano from the age of three on; starting at 15 minutes a day with time off on Christmas and my birthday.  The other was being taken to the library–a big old Carnegie building with iron stairs and oak stacks–to pick out 5 books a week to read. There was a stint with ballet and tap and swimming lessons. Eventually, I learned that all mom’s childrearing literature at the time I was weaned from afternoon cartoons was filled with tales of the boob tube and fat, dull children who had been hooked in to it for hours a day. My mother wasn’t going to be caught raising fat, dull children. There was too much status at stake during that time in America.

I also remember when I was a young mom I had absolute dread when being begged to run the same Barney tape over and over. It was as bad as the continual whining about Rainbow Brite or My Little Ponies or what ever mass marketing TV toy of the day.  The real shocker was finding out how so many kids seemed to have nearly uniform expressions of glee when any where near the golden arches.  That included mine even when I was hand making all of the baby food and growing it in the backyard garden. I got motivated quickly to stack my daughters’ rooms full of nature items, books, and musical instruments.  We had a 5400 square foot house with one TV and thousands of books in hundreds of books shelves. TVs are not allowed anywhere near dinner tables or kitchens in my home.  There was  and is that same piano that both my mom and I played and games.  At some point, I got that boob tube message loud and clear too.

We got an IBM peanut when doctor daughter was about two and the one cartridge of child friendly software mostly had numbers and shapes on a very primitive level.  Dr. Daughter had to learn to work a keyboard the same way she learned piano.  That would be one key and one connected image at a time.  That’s like 25 years ago and it’s as much a world of difference from that time as it is from me sitting on the family room floor with a toy guy blazing watching Kemo Sabe get the bad guy one more time.  The boob tubes are much more sophisticated. I can only imagine any potential grandchildren I may have will have much more engaging boobtubes as the technology develops.

I have to admit that I spend hours in front of my PC doing work, playing games, and socializing. Even though it is much more interactive than Captain Kangaroo, it’s an isolating and nonphysical experience on the whole. It’s also quite addicting.  I remember graphic computer novel games–like Zork–used to keep me up at night. I call youngest daughter and she’s on the WII trying to take on the latest version of Zelda.  That happens at all hours and pretty much every time I call for about a period of a week. Thankfully, all three of us still retreat to our pianos and books which might actually be seen as earlier versions of boobtubes if you think about it.

Still, it makes you think when you see stuff like this.

THE average American spends at least eight and a half hours a day in front of a screen, Nicholas Carr notes in his eye-opening book “The Shallows,” in part because the number of hours American adults spent online doubled between 2005 and 2009 (and the number of hours spent in front of a TV screen, often simultaneously, is also steadily increasing).

The average American teenager sends or receives 75 text messages a day, though one girl in Sacramento managed to handle an average of 10,000 every 24 hours for a month. Since luxury, as any economist will tell you, is a function of scarcity, the children of tomorrow, I heard myself tell the marketers in Singapore, will crave nothing more than freedom, if only for a short while, from all the blinking machines, streaming videos and scrolling headlines that leave them feeling empty and too full all at once.

I’ve just learned about a phenomenon called ‘internet rescue camp’ and ‘freedom software’ that helps netizens learn to disconnect.  I don’t want to disconnect. I have to admit that I can’t last through TV programs very much these days.  Going to a movie at a theatre is akin to a dentist trip for me.  I have the blackberry–crackberry–out within about 10 minutes looking for the latest twitter news or checking my email.  My blackberry has given me adult attention deficit disorder but I call it multi-tasking.  I can only imagine how bad I would be with a tablet and wifi. My kids aren’t much better.  I can’t get youngest daughter away from texting and 2 minute shout outs on the phone.  When the house fills up at Mardi Gras time, I discover just how much young adults text each other these days.  My daughter panics if she doesn’t have her phone on her at all times.  She might miss something earth shattering.

So, that article that I’m quoting is at the NYT.  It’s called ‘The Joy of Quiet’ and was sent to me by an old friend.   He knew me before I refused to go anywhere without internet connections.  I wonder what that says?

The central paradox of the machines that have made our lives so much brighter, quicker, longer and healthier is that they cannot teach us how to make the best use of them; the information revolution came without an instruction manual. All the data in the world cannot teach us how to sift through data; images don’t show us how to process images. The only way to do justice to our onscreen lives is by summoning exactly the emotional and moral clarity that can’t be found on any screen.

The author brings up one of my other long time activities; meditation.  I still escape to books.  I can spend hours still playing the piano.  It’s why gigging was the perfect antidote to working at the FED for me.  Right now, I’m reading 1Q84. This is a great pleasure for me given how much of my reading has been dedicated to scholarly articles the last few years. I snuck in all three of Larsson triology last summer too despite the pressures to get the dissertation done.  I still can’t believe I got my first masters with just a mainframe and tons of error messages on greenbar paper that had to be deconstructed by a computer person.  I get data from the Fed in two keystrokes now.  It used to take me days down in the university library basement where the government docs were stored.  I had to go through hundreds of Beige Books.  That didn’t even count the time it took to get stuff from nominal to real.  That’s not even a two minute activity these days.

The thing that has always historically defined our species is our use of tools.  It’s basically contributed mightily to the evolution of human intelligence from the time we first picked up sticks and stones.  Our cousins the great apes also use them.  However, what also defines us is our social displays.  We and our great ape cousins show empathy,  demonstrate a sense of humor, and thrive around friends and relations. We make love and war with tools and with out them.   So, not only do I play games to get my mind off of life, I Skype friends all over the world.  I also think, therefore, I blog.  It’s one of those chicken and egg things. Do we define our tools or do our tools define us?  Some times, it’s very hard to tell.


Saturday Morning Reads: The Dakini Office Pool

Good Morning!

It’s that time of year again!   It’s time for my annual salute to the late William Safire’s annual “Office Pool”.  I’ve been doing it since December 2008 which is basically about 6 months after I started this blog. Safire’s last column of the year in the NYT always had a list of predictions that challenged you to beat the pundit.  Some of my favorite questions have to do with the results of elections as well as topical things like the number of troops left in places like Afghanistan.

Let’s make our predictions!

1.  The winner of the Republican nod for Presidential candidate in 2012 will go to  _______________ and the next president will be_______________.

2.  The state with the most surprising election outcome will be ___________ where ___________________.

3.   The next dictator to go–one way or another–will be:

4.   The biggest court case this year will be about:

5.   The winner of this year’s super bowl will be:

6.  The next big Congressional stand off will be about ______________ and ___________ will be the one to cave to the opposition’s demands.

7.  The big political surprise of the year will be:

8.  The largest movement of US troops will be to:

9.  Joe Biden’s first gaffe of the campaign will be:

10.  The next major ecological/natural disaster will concern:

Okay, sharpen your pencils and let’s get started!

Here’s some other predictions to give you some inspiration!  Of course the biggest 2012 predictions have to do with the end of the Mayan Calendar.  Here’s some thing  on that.

There are many theories floating around the Internet about how the world will end next year. The most popular being the Mayan prediction from 1,300 years ago. According to the Mayan Long Count Calendar, December 21, 2012 will mark the end of a b’ak’tun, a 144,000-day cycle. The b’ak’tun that will end on December 21 is the 13th cycle, a number that started all the apocalypse predictions. The truth is that the Mayan never predicted any cataclysms. The end of the Long Count calendar was just a measure of time for the ancient Mayan. It was Franciscan missionaries who actually attached the end of the world myth to the end of the 13th b’ak’tun.

There’s also some predictions out there for a Super Vocano eruption.

Another doomsday scenario for 2012 is that a supervolcano will erupt to kill off all life on the planet. Supervolcanoes are capable of spewing out thousands of times more magma and ash than regular volcanoes. A supervolcano eruption could wipe out millions of people and blot out the sun with ash. The largest supervolcano explosion happened 74,000 years ago in Sumatra. The explosion of Mount Toba released 700 cubic miles of magma and a thick layer of ash that covered all of South Asia. There are a dozen supervolcanoes today, most of them lying at the bottom of the sea but researchers agree that chances of a super-eruption happening next year are miniscule. Geologists think there is a super-eruption every 700,000 years or so and there is no sign that a super-eruption is going to happen anytime soon.

Here’s some Wall Street predictions for the US economy. This is from BlackRock’s Bob Doll who is its chief equity strategist.

2012 is likely to feature a slow-growth world that includes a recession in Europe. The United States faces headwinds, but manages to achieve growth of between 2% and 2.5%. China and India slow somewhat, but, along with the United States, make up two-thirds of global GDP growth. The big risk remains that of a financial breakdown in Europe, which would tip the developed world, if not the emerging world, into recession. Inflation should also continue to move lower. Should the muddle-through environment come to pass, we believe earnings and some improvement in confidence would allow equity markets to move higher, with US stocks leading the way.

The Daily Beast has some political pundits with their predictions.  Here’s John Avlon’s best guesses.

Anyone who tells you they know who’s going to win the presidential race isn’t telling the truth. This is going to be close—especially if Mitt Romney is the nominee and scores someone like Marco Rubio or Chris Christie as his VP.  President Obama’s basic job approval and economic numbers make him a historically vulnerable incumbent, with his primary asset being his personal likability. Likable people get fired if they can’t do their job. The one thing I’ll say for certain is that if President Obama is reelected, it will be by a much smaller electoral margin than in 2008—and possibly razor-thin.

So,  what do you think 2012 will bring?

Will Fidel Castro die?  Will Israel bomb Iran?  Will Hillary Clinton announce her retirement from the State Department?  C’mon! Dust off those crystal balls and share!!!


Why don’t Science and Reason prevail over Superstitions and Ideological Wishful Thinking?

Paul Krugman asks one more time why over 80 years of economic study, data, and theory have been thrown to the wind for failed ideological hypotheses. He asks why conventional wisdom denies everything that thousands of economists have studied, researched, and debated that now has become accepted theory?  Our current experience shows that what we’ve learned over the years is correct. Why are failed hypotheses based on ideological wishful thinking running policy these days?  I ask this about my own discipline, but we could just as well ask about why we have to fight to keep iron age myths out of biology classes and fight to keep basic scientific theory like evolution and climate science in?  Why do people keep relying on disproved hypotheses, conspiracy theories, and absolutely outdated religious stories?

Here’s the narrative that applies to my discipline from Krugman.

Unfortunately, in late 2010 and early 2011, politicians and policy makers in much of the Western world believed that they knew better, that we should focus on deficits, not jobs, even though our economies had barely begun to recover from the slump that followed the financial crisis. And by acting on that anti-Keynesian belief, they ended up proving Keynes right all over again.

In declaring Keynesian economics vindicated I am, of course, at odds with conventional wisdom. In Washington, in particular, the failure of the Obama stimulus package to produce an employment boom is generally seen as having proved that government spending can’t create jobs. But those of us who did the math realized, right from the beginning, that the Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (more than a third of which, by the way, took the relatively ineffective form of tax cuts) was much too small given the depth of the slump. And we also predicted the resulting political backlash.

So the real test of Keynesian economics hasn’t come from the half-hearted efforts of the U.S. federal government to boost the economy, which were largely offset by cuts at the state and local levels. It has, instead, come from European nations like Greece and Ireland that had to impose savage fiscal austerity as a condition for receiving emergency loans — and have suffered Depression-level economic slumps, with real G.D.P. in both countries down by double digits.

The stupidity is killing our economy.  The stupidity is also forcing medical research back to the dark ages too.  Taliban-like forces in the US have made up research that says that fetuses with no developed central nervous systems ‘feel pain’.  They have invented bogus ‘partial birth abortion’ procedures out of thin air.  They’ve even based laws on these falsehoods.  We have crazies defining zygotes as fully functional human beings with some narrative that a fertilized egg is just some little microscopic person encased in a membrane.

We have tons of Taliban-like idiots trying to convince every one that the data on global warming is just some made up agenda.  Yet, tons of biologists have studied and published research articles on the radical changes in habitat and migration patterns.  Meteorologists have reams of data showing the extremes in weather and temperatures that have shifted significantly in statistical terms.  It is so pervasive and significant  that no scientist that’s not associated with some whacky religion denies global warming. Geologists have documented the changes in water levels and ice formations.  Yet, I can still read some one that notes one cold day in summer and on the basis of that anecdote declares global warming to be a hoax.  They obviously don’t understand that extreme cold in one area of the globe means extreme heat someplace else. However, some one without one college science course can get on TV and proclaim an entire discipline to be deluded.

One possible  answer to my question is there is an evil partnership of corporations and the rich who profit from ignorance and those who follow strict religious ideology who thrive on ignorance period.  These folks have overwhelming political power and access to media.  The media these days refuses to call out lies and fact check  blowhards.  They bring on a politician or a media pundit but NEVER an actual scientist with years of learning and research in the area.  The media even goes along by repeating the change in word meanings that have plagued us recently.  Radical ideas are being put forth as “conservative”.  Conspiracy theories are being held up as just another point of view.  Ever since media has been driven by profits, we have media more interested in ratings and not getting boycotted than actually putting out some useful information.  It is no wonder that we are seeing a systematic destruction of public schools and universities.  The only way this march of ignorance can continue is with a systematic destruction of institutions that actually teach science to people.  There has never been a time when this quote by Jonathan Swift is more relevant since the Dark Ages which were brought on by the same group of religious nuts that tanked scientific thought hundreds of years ago.

“When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him.”

The same thing can be said about true and genius theories.  The confederacy of dunces will thump their books full of myths and conspiracies and deny people access to science, reason, and truth.

Here’s a pretty good list of how insane the Republican Party has become in terms of irrational, unscientific, and unreasonable positions per the UK’s The Economist.  Notice the use of the term “fatwahs” which implies they’re waging a religious war. Also please remember that this magazine is not exactly a bastion of socialist thought.

Nowadays, a candidate must believe not just some but all of the following things: that abortion should be illegal in all cases; that gay marriage must be banned even in states that want it; that the 12m illegal immigrants, even those who have lived in America for decades, must all be sent home; that the 46m people who lack health insurance have only themselves to blame; that global warming is a conspiracy; that any form of gun control is unconstitutional; that any form of tax increase must be vetoed, even if the increase is only the cancelling of an expensive and market-distorting perk; that Israel can do no wrong and the “so-called Palestinians”, to use Mr Gingrich’s term, can do no right; that the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Education and others whose names you do not have to remember should be abolished.

These fatwas explain the rum list of candidates: you either have to be an unelectable extremist who genuinely believes all this, or a dissembler prepared to tie yourself in ever more elaborate knots (the flexible Mr Romney). Several promisingly pragmatic governors, including Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie and Jeb Bush, never even sought the nomination. Jon Huntsman, the closest thing to a moderate in the race (who supports gay marriage and action to combat climate change), is polling in low single figures.

More depressingly, the fatwas have stifled ideas, making the Republican Party the enemy of creative positions it once pioneered. The idea of requiring every American to carry health insurance (thus broadening the insurance pool and reducing costs) originated in the conservative Heritage Foundation as a response to Clinton-care, and was put into practice by then-Governor Romney in Massachusetts. All this Mr Romney has had to disavow, just as Mr Gingrich has had to recant his ideas on climate change, while Rick Perry is still explaining his appalling laxity as governor of Texas in allowing the children of illegal immigrants to receive subsidised college education.

WTF is wrong with our country?  Our religious freedom was enshrined in the first amendment.  Our scientific advances led to men on the moon, the elimination of some of the world’s worst plagues, and the lap top computer.  Our melting pot of people fleeing class systems and oppression all over the place evolved into a great democracy that provided public education for all and opportunity for any one that wanted it.  Why has it  come down to this?