Extra Lazy Saturday Reads

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Good Afternoon!!

There’s quite a bit of news today for a weekend, I have a cold, and I’m very late; so this is going to be a link dump post. There’s so much to talk about, I hardly know where to begin.

Even though national polls are essentially meaningless at this point, this one is still disturbing.

AP via US News: Trump Could Win It All. A new survey shows a sizable number of Democrats ready to defect from Hillary Clinton to Donald Trump.

So if Donald Trump proved the political universe wrong and won the Republican presidential nomination, he would be creamed by Hillary Clinton, correct?

A new survey of likely voters might at least raise momentary dyspepsia for Democrats since it suggests why it wouldn’t be a cakewalk.

The survey by Washington-based Mercury Analytics is a combination online questionnaire and “dial-test” of Trump’s first big campaign ad among 916 self-proclaimed “likely voters” (this video shows the ad and the dial test results). It took place primarily Wednesday and Thursday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

Nearly 20 percent of likely Democratic voters say they’d cross sides and vote for Trump, while a small number, or 14 percent, of Republicans claim they’d vote for Clinton. When those groups were further broken down, a far higher percentage of the crossover Democrats contend they are “100 percent sure” of switching than the Republicans.

Read about the survey at the link. Fortunately, that isn’t how we elect presidents. We do it state by state, and you have to actually leave the house and vote at your local polling place.

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For some rational discussion of the Trump phenomenon, here’s Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight: Three Theories Of Donald Trump’s Rise. The three possible explanations are:

Theory 1: Trump’s support reflects a Republican populist revolt.In a nutshell: Trump is extremely popular among Republican voters, who are attracted to his combination of populism, nativism and anti-elite resentment….

Theory 2: Trump’s support reflects a Republican Party power vacuum. In a nutshell: Party elites and insiders usually have a tremendous amount of influence on the identity of the nominee, with Republican voters eventually falling in line behind one of their preferred choices. The fact that Trump is leading now reflects a lack of consensus among those party elites. However, these elites will rally behind whichever establishment-approved choice performs best in Iowa and New Hampshire, elevating that candidate to the frontrunner’s position….

Theory 3: Trump’s support reflects a media bubble. In a nutshell: Trump’s standing in the polls substantially reflects the disproportionate amount of media coverage he’s receiving; it’s not that remarkable for a candidate to poll at 35 percent when he’s recently been getting 70 percent of the media coverage of the Republican race. That makes Trump’s position vulnerable if media coverage eventually evens out, or as the election approaches in each state as voters learn more about the candidates on their own and less through the lens of the national media.

Read the detailed discussion at the link.

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Here’s a must-read on a dramatic change in the way the media as reacted to Trump’s outrageous lies and extreme proposals: “Influential news outlets have set aside traditional notions of balance…” by Jay Rosen. Be sure to check it out.

Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium is convinced that Trump can win the Republican nomination, based on the current state of Republican polls.

Since actual election results will deviate from current polls by many points, parametric approaches (i.e. calculating means, medians, standard deviations, regressions, and so on) may be of limited use. Let me take a look at the data to ask a simpler question: what does current polling rank predict about the nominee?

Although Donald Trump’s support might be higher or lower than the numbers indicate, nobody seriously questions the observation that he is in first place nationally. But what does that predict for the nomination?

Wang looks at past election cycles and shows that by this time the man who became the GOP nominee was in first or second place in most polls. Read more at the link.

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Ted Cruz is also in the news–for the latest birther controversy and an incredibly stupid remark about his children and Hillary Clinton.

From TPM: Ted Cruz’s Mother Was On Official List Of Canadian Citizens Eligible To Vote.

TPM shared an electronic copy of the document with Sen. Cruz’s office when it originally obtained the document in 2013. Cruz’s then-communications director, Sean Rushton, emphasized that the document is not a record of people who actually voted in any election. He further pointed out that the document itself provides notice that “applications for corrections,” “deletions from,” and “additions to” the list may have been necessary.

“At least one other error is evident on its face: the name of Sen. Cruz’s father is misspelled,” Rushton told TPM in his 2013 statement. “Regardless, Mrs. Cruz has never been a Canadian citizen, and she has never voted in any Canadian election.”

TPM eventually decided not to publish an article based on the document at the time, in part because Cruz was not yet a candidate for president. TPM decided to revisit the story earlier this week as rival Donald Trump renewed his skepticism about Cruz’s eligibility, moving the story to the center of the campaign, and was prepared to publish this evening….

Jason Johnson, Cruz’s chief campaign strategist, said in the statement that candidate’s mother “was never a citizen of Canada.” He added that she could not have been a Canadian citizen at the time her son was born because of residency requirements. Eleanor Cruz was born in Delaware, while her ex-husband, Rafael Cruz, was born in Cuba, obtained Canadian citizenship while living in Calgary and became a naturalized U.S. citizen in the mid-2000s.

The document in question is a voter list of individuals who lived in the southern district of the city of Calgary, were over the age of 18 and were Canadian citizens, thus eligible to vote.

It still sounds like a non-issue to me, but read much more about it at TPM if you’re interested.

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Now for Cruz’s creepy remark about Hillary Clinton.

NBC News: Cruz Suggests Voters Give Clinton ‘Spanking’ Over Benghazi.

Ted Cruz suggested on Friday that Hillary Clinton should be given a “spanking” by voters to hold her accountable for the Benghazi attack in 2011 when she served as secretary of state.

Cruz compared it to how he punishes one of his daughters for lying.

“In my house, if my daughter, Catherine, the 5-year-old, says something that she knows to be false, she gets a spanking,” Cruz told the attendees at a crowded coffee shop here.

He continued, “Well, in America, the voters have a way of administering a spanking.”

A supporter in the crowd prompted Cruz’s response after asking how, as president, he would hold individuals accountable for the attack that killed four Americans, including the U.S. ambassador to Libya.

I wonder if Cruz would suggest “spanking” a man running for the presidency? So now we know that Ted Cruz is a virulent sexist (not really a surprise) and that he believes in spanking very young children. In my opinion, that is child abuse.

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Ben Carson, who is supposedly still running for president also did something awful to a child yesterday. Vanity Fair reports: Ben Carson Humiliated a Fifth Grader in Public.

Carson reportedly asked a group of fifth graders at a campaign rally Thursday in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, to identify the laggard among them. “Who’s the worst student?” he asked, according to The Des Moines Register. The kids, of course, being kids and not knowing better than say, someone gunning to be the leader of the free world, quickly pointed to one student….

Carson’s question wasn’t intended to humiliate and scar a child for life (though he now has someone to write about for his college-admissions essay). The onetime G.O.P. front-runner was simply trying to make a point about how he himself was a “horrible student” who would easily have been the one chosen as the worst in the class if some political candidate had the horrible idea to single him out in public. It was meant to be an inspirational story, that even 10-year-olds thought of as the dumbest in class can rise to be a renowned neurosurgeon and public figure who could then embarrass and put down children.

He tried to make good backstage, according to the Register, patting the boy on the back and forcing a copy of his book on him. Surely, that made up for it.

Ugh.

More interesting reads:

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CNN: Silently protesting Muslim woman ejected from Trump rally.

I really liked this one. Washington Post: Mom: What do I expect from my children’s elementary school? Certainly not this.

Washington Post: Man in alleged plot to kidnap Obama’s dog arrested on weapons charge.

Classic Esquire: The Candidate We Love to Hate and Hate to Love (spoiler: it’s Hillary, but it’s actually quite positive).

Barack Obama’s op-ed in the New York Times: Guns Are Our Shared Responsibility. (Interesting note: Obama writes that he will not support any candidate who votes to exempt gun owners from being sued (i.e. Bernie Sanders).

NYT: What Donald Trump Owes Geo(rge Wallace.

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A deep dive on why people vote Republican and specifically why they like Donald Trump from the NYT: Purity, Disgust, and Donald Trump, by Thomas B. Edsall.

Two views on the sexual assaults in Germany: NYT: German’s Post-Cologne Hysteria and Daily Mail: Why Germany can’t face the truth about migrant sex attacks: SUE REID finds a nation in denial as a wave of horrific attacks is reported across Europe.

Village Voice: Donald Trump and the Joys of Toy Fascism (h/t Dakinikat).

Yahoo News: Jeb Bush races to salvage presidential campaign.

Boston Globe: Bernie Sanders in Clinton Territory (Massachusetts).

NBC News: Hillary Clinton Slams Bernie Sanders on Guns.


12 Comments on “Extra Lazy Saturday Reads”

  1. bostonboomer's avatar bostonboomer says:

    Have a nice weekend Sky Dancers!!

  2. dakinikat's avatar dakinikat says:

    Sorry you’re sick again! Hope it’s not the flu I had because that sucker has staying power!

    Beautiful topiary pix and not so beautiful Republican news! I can’t understand anyone thinking Donald Trump is anything but a fanatical egomaniac. No one must be actually paying attention.

  3. bostonboomer's avatar bostonboomer says:

    White Nationalist PAC Blankets Iowa With Robocalls For Trump

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker/trump-robocalls-white-nationalists-iowa