2011: A Scientific Odyssey

Does this remind anyone else of 2008's Wall-E?... Guardian caption: An artist’s impression of Curiosity, Nasa’s Mars-bound science lab, as it analyses Martian rock. Photograph: Reuters

Well hello again, news junkies… the Guardian’s top ten list of science news stories for the year seems like the perfect compendium of already-synthesized-information to put up for your lazy Saturday afternoon perusal.

Here’s a quick rundown of the top ten, but be sure to click over to read the concise summaries under each bullet point:

  • Graphene is going to be the ‘it’ material of the 21st century

  • Flying faster than the speed of light just might be possible after all

  • Modern humans have been hanging around Europe for thousands of years longer than we had thought

  • The female brain lights up in a very special way after an orgasm

  • The best candidate for finding life on another world has been pinpointed by astronomers

  • You can win the Nobel prize even though you are dead

  • Stem cells may not be the great white hope for medicine in the 21st century after all

  • Mars continues to be a tricky place to reach

  • Archaeopteryx may not have been the world’s first bird

  • And finally, we learned that the Higgs boson really does exist

The Higgs boson news that’s been in the headlines this past week (see Sci Am’s Tantalizing Hints of Elusive Higgs Particle Announced) has been fascinating to follow…in a nutshell, researchers MAY have found the so-called “God particle”… or they may not have! In another year or so, we’ll know. I guess those particle reactors have their work cut out for them in 2012.

Re: the likelihood that We are Not Alone…

Here’s a direct link to the NASA briefing on the Kepler mission finding its first planet in the habitable zone:

NASA’s Kepler mission has confirmed its first planet in the “habitable zone,” the region where liquid water could exist on a planet’s surface. Kepler also has discovered more than 1,000 new planet candidates, nearly doubling its previously known count. Ten of these candidates are near-Earth-size and orbit in the habitable zone of their host star. Candidates require follow-up observations to verify they are actual planets.

The newly confirmed planet, Kepler-22b, is the smallest yet found to orbit in the middle of the habitable zone of a star similar to our sun. The planet is about 2.4 times the radius of Earth. Scientists don’t yet know if Kepler-22b has a predominantly rocky, gaseous or liquid composition, but its discovery is a step closer to finding Earth-like planets.

Very neat!

I personally find the thought that humans are the most intelligent life in this universe to be extremely depressing. I hope to the sun, moon, and stars we are not alone and there is a species smarter than us out there than can help us save us from ourselves! (I’m only half-snarking!)

In other astronomy news from this year, I remember this Reuters story from August on scientists discovering what I very inaccurately am going to call the Bling-Bling planet.

I’d like to add a note on stem cell research…while the Guardian science-year-in-review points to the not-so-encouraging stem cell research developments in 2011, I remember doing a roundup back in June where I covered some exciting news about stell cells on the heart research front (the relevant portion is probably somewhere mid-post at that link). I’ll excerpt it here:

Stem Cell & Heart Research

Next up… Encouraging news, via Reuters… Scientists show heart can repair itself, with help. The BBC has some good coverage as well:

You can read James Gallagher’s report on the breakthrough here, but the research raises the astonishing prospect that we might, one day, teach the human heart to repair itself. A new golden age of regenerative medicine now seems tantalisingly close.

From the British Heart Foundation, which is responsible for the research:

Our Associate Medical Director, Professor Jeremy Pearson, said:

“To repair a damaged heart is one of the holy grails of heart research. This groundbreaking study shows that adult hearts contain cells that, given the right stimulus, can mobilise and turn into new heart cells that might repair a damaged heart. The team have identified the crucial signals needed to make this happen.”

Also in related stem cell heart research news: Cytori Reports Sustained Benefits at 18 Months in Cardiac Cell Therapy Heart Attack Trial (press release, via Reuters).

One more blast from the Wonk-the-Vote 2011 posting vault… remember all those dying bird and fish ringing in the new year? I’ll just quote from my closing paragraphs:

All of these strange events feel like a creepy ass movie script, except there’s no M. Night Shyamalan directing the nightmare we’re living. What struck me while trying to get to the bottom of things is that our zombie press really is not in the business of trying to investigate or get to the bottom of anything anymore.

And, just the other day Bostonboomer reported on the bird crashes out of Utah in her morning reads…as Minkoff Minx noted downthread in the comments of BB’s roundup, this isn’t the first time bird crashes have happened in that exact same spot. What in the world is going on in that Walmart parking lot?

And, is anyone else freaked out a bit by the fact that we have mass animal deaths as bookends for the beginning and end of 2011? Is mother nature trying to tell us something?

Looking toward the future…this special report to CNN by theoretical physicist Michio Kaku is worth the read this weekend when you get a chance:

Space elevators and smart machines: Life in the year 2100

Kaku talks about telomeres and reversing the aging process somewhere in there, and if your interest is piqued by that topic, please be sure to set aside some time to read Sci Am’s October 2011 “Actuary of the Cell: A Q&A with Nobelist Elizabeth Blackburn on Telomeres and Aging Cells”. Unfortunately, only a preview version of the interview and extended web exclusives are available online, but I can make anyone a xerox if they’re really interested!

Here’s the introductory blurb on the web exclusive bits:

The little tips of chromosomes get shorter every time a cell divides, and this shortening is a mark of cellular aging. If they get short enough, the cell dies or stops dividing. Elizabeth Blackburn, who won the 2009 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for her studies on telomeres with colleagues Carol Greider and Jack Szostak, has spent the better part of her career trying to figure out why. In recent years, Blackburn has expanded on that initial work to show that these gauges of cellular health serve as barometers of environmental and emotional stress and predictors of various diseases. In this expansion of an interview in the October issue of Scientific American, Blackburn talks about additional ways that this research has started to branch out.

If I remember any more geeky goodies from the year, I’ll post them in the comments, but for now I’m going to turn this discussion over to all you inquisitive and informed Sky Dancers out there!

What science stories have caught your eye during this last trip around the sun?


Saturday in Sisterland

Secretary Clinton Delivers the Keynote Address at Inaugural Women in Public Service Colloquium

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton delivers the keynote address at the Inaugural Women In Public Service Colloquium, at the U.S. Department of State in Washington, D.C., on December 15, 2011. (State Department photo/ Public Domain

Morning, news junkies!

Don’t you just love the photo of Hillary to the right? Hillary looks so glamorous and elegant in black, with her hair flipped out, and please note the sign on her podium. It’s the name of an initiative she has just launched. An iconic shot, if you ask me.

Bloomberg has the scoop:

Clinton Seeks Women Leaders to ‘Tackle Our Biggest Problems’

Hillary Clinton would like to see more women in government around the world.

She said she knows “how daunting it is” for women to consider a public-service career, yet “we need women at every level of government from executive mansions and foreign ministries to municipal halls and planning commissions, from negotiation international disarmament treaties to debating town ordinances.”

To that end, Clinton yesterday initiated the Women in Public Service Project, a program intended to increase the number of women in leadership. This summer, for instance, 40 women from the Middle East and North Africa will go to her alma mater, Wellesley College, to gain skills in public speaking, coalition building, networking and mentorship.

The initiative reflects an idea that Clinton has returned to throughout her tenure as the top U.S. diplomat — that people, their communities and countries do better when women are active participants in public life.

The issue isn’t just about fairness, the top U.S. diplomat said. “It’s about expanding the pool of talented people to help tackle our biggest problems.”

That’s our Hillary, and this is her life’s work–tirelessly framing the principle of fairness in terms of solving problems and dilligently doing the legwork to bring both objectives together in the form of concrete actions. She’s our modern-day Franklin and Eleanor, all in the same person.

Hillary’s partner in campaining for women and girls–Melanne Verveer–says the Women in Public Service project is “going to grow exponentially.”

Even as the hunger for the ordinary man’s right to self-goverance continues to grow around the world, the political participation of women still remains a taboo, as the Arab Spring has brought into focus.

‘Dirty Word’

Private sector help for the program will be crucial, Clinton said. Computer maker Dell Inc. (DELL), based in Round Rock, Texas, will provide hardware, training and other support for the program. Ogilvy Worldwide is helping with public relations and information support, she said.

While women in North Africa and the Middle East have played a pivotal role in the Arab Spring, “for many of them, politics was still kind of a dirty word” and there may be some reluctance to stay engaged in the process of reform.

Clinton said she made the point that if these women don’t make their own transition from taking part in “this extraordinary historic revolution to actually doing the hard, and yes, sometimes boring difficult work of politics, you may not realize the gains and the hopes that you had demonstrated for.”

Hillary’s words are very salient there. Women are their own best advocates. If half this world’s population doesn’t stand up for themselves in every nook and cranny of this planet, then all the protest fever in the world will be limited in what it can achieve.

Women have to be equal and respected participants of protests for protests to matter.

Secretary Clinton Meets With IMF Managing Director Lagarde

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton meets with International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde, at the U.S. Department of State in Washington, D.C., on December 15, 2011. (State Department photo/public domain)

Here’s one last excerpt from the Bloomberg piece, but I urge you to click over to the article and give the rest of it a read:

‘Grit Your Teeth’

Clinton and Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund and one of the speakers, spoke about the hurdles to women that remain.

“It’s not as though there’s been this huge, cosmic change” in attitudes, Clinton said. “It still is hard.”

Clinton mentioned a radio interview she heard while getting dressed for work this week. A woman interviewed about Republican presidential nominee Michele Bachmann said she wasn’t comfortable supporting a woman for president.

“Imagine my reaction,” said Clinton, a Democratic presidential candidate in the 2008 election. “So it’s not only in other countries that attitudes need to be addressed. It is even in a country like my own.”

Lagarde gave the women in the crowded auditorium two pieces of advice. The first was to build a list of talented, skilled women so that the next time a male employer said they were unable to find a qualified woman for a job, they could whip out their list. She recalled the struggle she had as French finance minister with state-owned firms reluctant to hire women, despite laws requiring it.

“Start building your list,” she said to applause. “Do it, do it, do it and use it.”

Lagarde’s second tip focused on the hostility toward women that remains in too many workplaces, however subtle: “Take the bashing, grit your teeth and smile, because there will be others after you,” she said.

Speaking of hostility toward working women, particularly single working mothers, Bryce Covert over at New Deal 2.0 discusses the consequences of state cutbacks in childcare services — Cutting Back on Childcare Assistance Puts Single Mothers in the Hole:

Single mothers aren’t faring very well in the recovery. Their unemployment rate was 12.4 percent in November, up from 11.7 percent in June 2009. An unemployed single mother will clearly need help with at least one thing to go out and get another job: childcare. And those who have jobs are still trying to make ends meet, potentially working longer hours and in need of someone to care for their children. But just as the need for childcare assistance is surely rising, states are cutting back. A new report from the National Women’s Law Center shows that those in need of assistance were worse off this year compared to last year in 37 states when it came to income eligibility limits to qualify, waiting lists, copayments, reimbursement rates, and eligibility for assistance to parents looking for a job.

Denying women support for childcare will directly impact their ability to save and their need to take on debt. As a report from NYU Wagner, “At Rope’s End,” says, “The hefty costs associated with single parenthood, which include childcare, housing, food, health insurance, among others, decrease the likelihood that, even with a stable income, these mothers will be able to accrue wealth.” And paying for childcare is no small cost. The average price of full-time care can range from $3,600 to $18,200 annually, according to the NWLC report, and At Rope’s End estimates that this cost accounts for over three-quarters of single mothers’ monthly expenditures.

Here’s a related graph, via Economix, from earlier this month:

In the month of November, the number of men in the labor force (working or actively looking) rose by about 23,000. By contrast, the number of women in the labor force fell by 339,000. (The numbers do not add to a 315,000 net loss because of rounding.)Even more peculiar is what these lost female workers did before they dropped out.

Typically when we think of workers dropping out of the labor market these days, we think of workers who have been unemployed for a while and have simply given up looking for a job. But last month, almost all of the net loss of women from the labor force was accounted for by women who had jobs right before they dropped out.

DESCRIPTION

Here is a pie chart for the 3,893,000 women who left the labor force in November — the gross number, so not subtracting those who newly entered the job market — sorted by how those women were categorized the month before:

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Now the numbers are volatile, so take this with a grain of salt. We also do not know why so many women left their jobs to drop out of the labor force. Probably some of them were going on maternity leave, and some quit their jobs for other reasons.

I would guess that most of them, though, were laid-off workers who had not yet started looking for a new job. After all, state and local governments are shedding workers in large numbers, and most state and local workers are women.

Couple that last statement with the fact that states are cutting back on childcare, and you can see that women are hurting in this economy–one for which President Obama recently offered these oh-so-inspiring, Condi-esque words…“we didn’t know how bad it was.”

Sheesh, well if the brilliant and immaculately conceived Barack Obama could not tell how bad it was, then who could have? Certainly not Dr. Dakinikat, nor that ‘stupid bitch’ who wouldn’t quit in 2008, and definitely not any of those silly wimminz who voted for her.

I guess only the ubiquituous ‘Nobody’ could have forseen…

(By the way it was the original ‘Nobody’s’ 181st birthday last Saturday!)

Shifting gears a bit… once again, Ukraian feminists have gone wild, making some waves… FEMEN, Ukrainian Women’s Rights Group, Protests Russian Elections (warning: Huffpo link contains NSFW photos):

Security guards detain activists from Femen in front of the Cathedral of Christ the Saviour in Moscow

Security guards detain activists from women's rights group Femen for staging a performance to support Russian opposition groups and to protest against violations at the parliamentary elections in front of the Cathedral of Christ the Saviour in Moscow December 9, 2011. REUTERS/Denis Sinyakov

Russians aren’t the only people protesting the allegedly rigged parliamentarian elections held earlier this month.

Turns out FEMEN, a Ukrainian feminist group, is also up in arms about the win of Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party in the Dec. 4 elections.

To show their disapproval, FEMEN protesters stripped down in front of The Cathedral Of Christ The Savior in Moscow on Friday, holding signs that said, “God Get Rid Of The Czar,’ AGI reports.

The women were detained by security guards and taken into police custody, Reuters reports. The women were released shortly after being detained.

In an effort to explain their stance, the the FEMEN protesters wrote about the Moscow demonstrations today on their website. They noted that during the protests, one of their activists dislocated her arm as a result of a scuffle with the guards.

This reminds me of *last December* around pretty much the same time, when the same group of Ukranian feminists ‘urinated in protest’ of the country’s all-male cabinet (scroll to the middle of the linked post for details).

These gals know how to do holiday sacrilege in the month of December!

That Reuters pic of the security guards detaining the protesters is disturbing, though.

Which brings me to this next bizarro world link… via Jezebel:

Heathen Pink Bibles Pulled From Shelves Due To Nefarious Planned Parenthood Connection

Scary pink bibles talking about girly parts!

Nearly every product imaginable, from Band-Aids to KitchenAid mixers, is now available in pink, and Americans are constantly encouraged to buy these items to support the fight against breast cancer. So why is a Christian bookstore furiously pulling pink Bibles from its shelves? Because they raise money for the Susan G. Komen Foundation, which in turn funds Planned Parenthood’s breast cancer programs. CNN reports that in recent weeks conservative Christian groups were put in the strange position of rallying against a Bible after people complained that $1 from the sale of each “Here’s Hope Breast Cancer Bible” goes to the Komen foundation.

A dollar from the sale of each bible went to breast cancer awareness and screening, oh noes! It’s a war on the baby jesus!

Moving along from the religiously challenged to the politically bankrupt…

Wonk’s $0.02 on 2012

So far next year’s election cycle doesn’t look like much to write about politically. I’ve dubbed it ESOTUS 2012–i.e. Empty Suit of the United States 2012. (Please refer to my primer on the tortured logic of trying to choose between Romney and Obama.)

So I’m going to skip right to about the only bit of human interest that I’ve come across yet:

Why would any self-respecting woman endorse an empty suit? (To get her foot in the door of his Administration, methinks.)

Is Nikki Haley going to get the VP nod? Double X’s Jessica Grose says she buys Haley’s insistence that she’s not looking for a spot on Mittens’ ticket, but I don’t know what to think. Let’s just say I wouldn’t be surprised to see Haley somewhere in a Romney Administration, should the “perfectly lubricated weather wane” (thank you, Jon Huntsman) win.

Ok, next up…I was bored to tears by Huffpo’s stuffy “9 Books to Get Your Sister” list, so I’ve made up my own wishlist called “7 books you can buy me, sister-friend:”

And now for… Today in Women’s History

Deborah Sampson - For the Good of the Country, artwork by Pamela Patrick White

Deborah Sampson was born, December 17, 1760… I loved this blurb on Sampson, from artist Pamela Patrick White, via Old Glory Prints:

A tall girl, Deborah enlisted in the 4th Mass. Regiment of the Continental Army, as Robert Shertliffe. Wounded twice during the war – by bullet and saber slash, she was honorably discharged by Henry Knox at West Point. Good enough for her country, but not good enough for the Baptists, who excommunicated her.

Phyllis Schlafly is even now uncertain if she could cook and thus be worthy of Citizenship.

Learn more at:

http://userpages.aug.com/captbarb/femvets.html

http://www.distinguishedwomen.com/biographies/sampson.html

http://www.americanrevwar.homestead.com/files/SAMPSON.HTM.

Before I go, a few pick-me-ups…

This first one is a h/t to quixote who sent me the link to the BBC story: Oil spill penguins released into sea off New Zealand.

I’m just going to put the youtube up here for your convenience:

And, this second one is a h/t to Minkoff Minx… via EarthSky: Who knew baby rhinos sounded like this?

Again, I’m just going to embed the video here so you don’t have to click over:

And, one more… this one is a link to a tumblr of baby animal photos and you’ll have to click over to see all the warm fuzziness (via the Design Inspiration):

70 Cutie Baby Animals Bring You a Good Mood

It’s really hard for me to choose just one, but this was the first one I happened to see:

Ok, well that’s it for me. I hope you keep warm and happy and drop in with what’s on your reading list this weekend!


Friday Reads

Good Morning!

We’re finally out of Iraq and it’s based on terms set by Dubya Bush.  Have we learned anything at all?

The war that was waged – yes, for oil, and yes, also for Israel – was waged above all to terrify the world (especially China) with American power. It turned into the largest boomerang in history. For what has been demonstrated instead are the limits of near-bankrupt America’s power. Far from being cowed, America’s adversaries – and its enemies – have been emboldened. With shock and awe the empire soon dominated the skies over Iraq to be sure. But they never controlled a single street in the country from the day they invaded until this day of retreat. One street alone – Haifa Street in Baghdad – became the graveyard of scores, maybe hundreds of Americans.

Fortresses like Fallujah entered history alongside Stalingrad as symbols of the unvanquishable power of popular resistance to foreign invasion. Crimes like Abu Ghraib prison – where Iraqis were stripped naked and humiliated, forced to perform indecent acts upon each other and videotaped doing so for the entertainment of their torturers in the barracks afterwards – entered the lexicon of the barbarism of those who invade others, flying the colours of their “civilising” mission. As Chairman Mao once put it: “Sometimes the enemy struggles mightily to lift a huge stone; only to drop it on its own foot.” In an America where a third of the population are living in poverty or terrifyingly near it, and where imperial hubris met its nemesis on Haifa Street, China now knows it has nothing to fear from this paper tiger.

The NYT mentions that we’ve left them with a lot of challenges.

Iraq faces a multitude of vexing problems the Americans tried and failed to resolve, from how to divide the country’s oil wealth to sectarian reconciliation to the establishment of an impartial justice system. A long-standing dispute festers in the north over how to share power in Kirkuk between Arabs, Kurds and Turkmen, an ominous harbinger for power struggles that may ensue in a post-America Iraq. A recent deal between Exxon Mobil and the Kurdistan government has been deemed illegal by Baghdad in the absence of procedures for sharing the country’s oil resources.

“We are in a standstill and things are paralyzed,” said Adel Abdul Mahdi, a prominent Shiite politician and former vice president of Iraq, describing the process of political reconciliation between Iraq’s three main factions, Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds. “We are going from bad to worse.”

After 9 years and a few trillion dollars, you would hope something was resolved.

Pew Research released the results of an extensive survey of US voters.  There’s a lot of support for Occupy–although not their protests–and a lot of dislike of Congress.  Some of the results should trouble both parties but especially Republicans.

Public discontent with Congress has reached record levels, and the implications for incumbents in next year’s elections could be stark. Two-in-three voters say most members of Congress should be voted out of office in 2012 – the highest on record. And the number who say their own member should be replaced matches the all-time high recorded in 2010, when fully 58 members of Congress lost reelection bids – the most in any election since 1948.

The Republican Party is taking more of the blame than the Democrats for a do-nothing Congress. A record-high 50% say that the current Congress has accomplished less than other recent Congresses, and by nearly two-to-one (40% to 23%) more blame Republican leaders than Democratic leaders for this. By wide margins, the GOP is seen as the party that is more extreme in its positions, less willing to work with the other side to get things done, and less honest and ethical in the way it governs. And for the first time in over two years, the Democratic Party has gained the edge as the party better able to manage the federal government.

Christine Lagarde of the IMF is liking the current Eurozone crisis to the 1930s.

Lagarde said that if countries don’t work together, the world will face a situation similar to the 1930s, before the world slid into World War II.

“There is no economy in the world, whether low-income countries, emerging markets, middle-income countries or super- advanced economies that will be immune to the crisis that we see not only unfolding, but escalating at a point where everybody would actually have to focus on what it can do,” Lagarde said.

If the international community doesn’t work together, “the risk from an economic point of view is that of retraction, rising protectionism, isolation,” Lagarde said. “This is exactly the description of what happened in the ‘30s and what followed is not something we are looking forward to.”

Lagarde said the world economic outlook “is quite gloomy” with pervasive downside risk, downward revisions, slower growth than expected, higher deficits than predicted and public finances in shaky condition. “And that is pretty much true the world over,” Lagarde said.

The one exception, she said, is emerging markets and the Asian economies most badly hit during the 1990s economic crisis. They, too, will have to help manage the current crisis if the world is to weather the risk, she said. Leadership has to rest with Europe, she said.

EmptyWheel is keeping track of the battle over subjecting US citizens to indefinite detention and violations of due process.

Kudos to Dianne Feinstein for trying to eliminate the President’s ability to indefinitely detain (and kill?) American citizens. This time, she’s trying a free-standing bill titled the Due Process Guarantee Act of 2011. It says,

(1) An authorization to use military force, a declaration of war, or any similar authority shall not authorize the detention without charge or trial of a citizen or lawful permanent resident of the United States apprehended in the United States, unless an Act of Congress expressly authorizes such detention.

(2) Paragraph (1) applies to an authorization to use military force, a declaration of war, or any similar authority enacted before, on, or after the date of the enactment of the Due Process Guarantee Act of 2011.

The language seems sound enough to me. And given that this wouldn’t constrain the President’s ability to detain (or kill) Americans in Yemen, the Obama Administration might not put up as big of a fight as it did with the detainee provisions (though I suspect they would fight it, because of all the other things that rely on detention language–they’d have to rewrite a bunch of OLC memos).

So, those are the things that caught my eye today.  What’s on your reading and blogging list today?


Live Blog: Watching the Republican Candidates Beating a Dead Horse?

Is this really only the 13th debate? It seems like about 30, doesn’t it? Do you have the stomach for it? I plan to listen on satellite radio for as long as I can stand. I figure there could be a few laughs to be had if Mitt and Newt go for each others’ throats. The only other candidate there tonight with a sliver a chance is {eeek!} Ron Paul.

The debate will be on Fox News at 9PM. Here’s how Fox sees it: Gingrich Faces Off Against GOP Field at Iowa Debate

Newt Gingrich enters the high-stakes debate in Iowa Thursday night with a political target on his back, as Mitt Romney and the rest of the Republican presidential candidates look to challenge his front-runner status ahead of the Iowa caucuses.

Gingrich, for his part, is vowing to stay positive.

On the day of the debate, his campaign aired a new Iowa ad that claimed his candidacy embodies “bold ideas and new solutions” for the country.

“Others seem to be more focused on attacks rather than moving the country forward. That’s up to them,” Gingrich said in the ad.

We’ll see how long it takes for Mr. Nasty to lash out at someone. Any bets? You can watch the live stream of the debate at Fox.com.
The coverage actually starts at 8:30PM.

Rasmussen Reports had a new poll out today with Romney taking the lead in Iowa, 23%, to Gingrich’s 20% and Paul’s 18%. So it appears that Romney still has a chance.

Business Insider says tonight’s debate is “HUGE.”

After a rollercoaster shadow primary, the stakes could not be higher this evening. With Newt Gingrich’s lead evaporating, the Iowa race is still anybody’s game. This debate is the candidates’ last chance to make an impression on voters before they hunker down for the holidays. A breakout performance — or major gaffe — tonight could actually make or break a campaign.

They ask: “Can Newt take the heat?” “Will the Mitt-bot self-destruct?” “Can Rick Perry hold it together?” “Will Ron Paul be a factor?” Plus they suggest that Jon Huntsman could be the next candidate to “surge.” I’ll believe that when I see it.

Chris Cillizza calls this “the kitchen sink debate,”

because you can bet any and every attack that the Republican candidates might have been keeping in their pocket will come out tonight. Why? Because it’s the last chance for Iowa voters — and voters nationally — to compare and contrast the candidates before an actual ballot is cast.

And brings up similar questions to those listed above from the Business Insider piece.

I’m ready to live blog, and home some of you will join me. I don’t know how long I’ll last, but I’ll hang in there as long as I can.


Iraq isn’t costing three trillion dollars

Remember when Bilmes and Stiglitz published The Three Trillion Dollar War: The True Cost of the Iraq Conflict in early 2008? There was much discussion about how it wasn’t true, how they’d overcounted this, and undercounted that. (E.g. 1)

Well, it turns out it was indeed not true.

It’s costing four trillion dollars. ($4,000,000,000,000. Actually, with those sorts of numbers, you’re really supposed to use scientific notation: $4 x 1012.)

That’s just the loss for the USA. It doesn’t count the cost for the troops of other nations. It doesn’t include the costs in Iraq. All told, six or seven trillion dollars’ worth of smoke and rubble is probably a cautious and conservative estimate.

The good news is there was nothing else that needed doing, so it’s not as if it matters.