Saturday Reads
Posted: November 6, 2010 Filed under: morning reads | Tags: Post 2010 election analysis, U.S. Economy 37 CommentsGood Morning!!!
File this one from The Hill under no surprises! Sean J Miller’s headline says it all: ‘Hillary voters’ abandon Democrats”. I even voted for a blue dawg congressman to become a blue dawg senator, it did no good whatsoever. I think when every one was told they didn’t need the votes, a lot of people took them seriously.
The blue-collar voters who supported Hillary Clinton’s 2008 presidential run deserted her party in droves on Tuesday, according to a new poll.
Democrats’ support from white, non-college-educated male voters dropped 12 percent from 2008, according to a survey Greenberg Quinlan Rosner conducted Nov. 2-3 for Democracy Corps and Campaign for America’s Future.
Only 29 percent of blue-collar men support Democrats in 2010, down from 41 percent last cycle, according to the survey of 1,000 2008 voters, of which 897 voted on Tuesday.
“These are gigantic losses,” Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg, whose firm conducted the survey, said on a conference call with reporters Friday.
Greenberg said President Obama and the Democratic leadership failed to articulate a clear economic message.
The process surrounding the healthcare bill, which passed in March, reinforced the perception voters’ had that the Democrats were spending too much time bickering with the GOP, increasing federal spending and listening to lobbyists instead of average people on major legislation.
I’ve been writing about one or another version of it’s the jobs stupid or it’s the economy stupid for about around two years. You’d have to really be deaf not to understand how folks are hurting for a decent wage and a decent job these days.
The more conservative side of Politico has this headline that’s a grabber too: ‘The ego factor: Can Obama change?’ I guess one of the reasons that I want to quote this some is that it interviews two Louisiana folks; James Carville and Douglas Brinkley.
“Humility is a great quality, and it’s one that people will respect,” said historian Douglas Brinkley, who teaches at Rice University. “Ronald Reagan could be seen as a polarizing presence, but he also knew how to play humble when it was necessary. Where is President Obama’s self-deprecating humor? Kennedy and Reagan could both be very self-deprecating. People liked that.”
“The worst thing that happened to Obama is he’s lost a lot of his aura. Even his friends think he’s thin-skinned and a bit highfalutin,” he said.
It’s the sort of complaint that comes to the fore in background conversations with lawmakers, lobbyists and veterans of previous administrations who interact with Obama’s West Wing staffers: that they’ve created a cult of personality around Obama, having followed their boss on his rapid and improbable ascent to the presidency. Many of these devotees do, indeed, feel that he is the political equivalent of NBA phenom LeBron James. The view is based on a belief that Obama’s outsize political skills and uncommon personal poise make him different than conventional politicians and immune to conventional political laws of gravity.
One Obama insider said it is a view that starts at the top. Having triumphed over an early perception by political insiders and many journalists that he could not defeat front-runner Hillary Clinton, Obama, this person said, frequently invokes the 2008 experience and what he believes was its lesson — always stay the course, don’t be distracted by ephemeral controversies or smart-set importuning for a change of direction.
Some believe this is an admirable instinct carried to a dangerous degree.
“Obama would sort of say, ‘Look, I’m smart. I know what I’m doing. You’ll just have to trust me,’” said Democratic strategist and commentator James Carville. “It was kind of beneath him to explain the reasons behind his actions to people — how TARP really worked, how the stimulus was helping. … You had a lot of signs — New Jersey, Virginia, Scott Brown — but they thought what they were doing was going to turn out all right.”
If you don’t read James K. Galbraith at New Deal 2.0, you really should. He’s got a great piece up over there that says Obama has to ‘break his devil’s pact with the banks to succeed’.
The original sin of Obama’s presidency was to assign economic policy to a closed circle of bank-friendly economists and Bush carryovers. Larry Summers. Timothy Geithner. Ben Bernanke. These men had no personal commitment to the goal of an early recovery, no stake in the Democratic Party, no interest in the larger success of Barack Obama. Their primary goal, instead, was and remains to protect their own past decisions and their own professional futures.
Up to a point, one can defend the decisions taken in September-October 2008 under the stress of a rapidly collapsing financial system. The Bush administration was, by that time, nearly defunct. Panic was in the air, as was political blackmail — with the threat that the October through January months might be irreparably brutal. Stopgaps were needed, they were concocted, and they held the line.
But one cannot defend the actions of Team Obama on taking office. Law, policy and politics all pointed in one direction: turn the systemically dangerous banks over to Sheila Bair and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Insure the depositors, replace the management, fire the lobbyists, audit the books, prosecute the frauds, and restructure and downsize the institutions. The financial system would have been cleaned up. And the big bankers would have been beaten as a political force.
The job market figures were released yesterday and they definitely had an impact on the financial markets. This is from Bloomberg.
Treasuries fell, with five-year note yields rising for the first time in seven days, while U.S. benchmark equity indexes gained to two-year highs and the dollar strengthened as jobs growth bolstered optimism in the economy
The 5-year Treasury note’s yield rose six basis points to 1.09 percent at 4 p.m. in New York, rebounding from a record low this week. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.4 percent to 1,225.85, its highest level since Sept. 19, 2008. The Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against six peers, snapped a three-day drop to climb from its 2010 low. Commodity indexes rose to the highest levels since October 2008 as copper surged to a 28-month high amid a mining strike in Chile.
The jobs market data itself wasn’t great but it certainly wasn’t bad. Economist Mark Thoma explains the wishy washy view.
I’ve seen some people calling this a strong report. It’s certainly better than lower job growth numbers, so it could have been worse, but in past recoveries we’ve had job growth of hundreds of thousands, far more that this. So let’s try to put it in perspective. Many people estimate that 7.5 million jobs have been lost since the start of the recession (and some people estimate it’s even more than this). Suppose it takes 100,000 jobs per month to keep up with population growth. I think it’s a bit more than this, but let’s take an estimate that is generous in terms of making up lost ground. With a net gain of 50,000 jobs (rounding from 51,000), how long would it take to reemploy the 7.5 million who need jobs? The answer is (7.5 million)/(50,000) = 150 months = 12.5 years.
Iraqi prisoners were not only abused by Americans but also by the UK. This is a horrifying report at The Guardian.
Evidence of the alleged systematic and brutal mistreatment of Iraqi prisoners at a secret British military interrogation centre that is being described as “the UK’s Abu Ghraib” emerged yesterday during high court proceedings brought by more than 200 former inmates.
The court was told there was evidence that detainees were starved, deprived of sleep, subjected to sensory deprivation and threatened with execution at the shadowy facilities near Basra operated by the Joint Forces Interrogation Team, or JFIT.
It also received allegations that JFIT’s prisoners were beaten, forced to kneel in stressful positions for up to 30 hours at a time, and that some were subjected to electric shocks. Some of the prisoners say that they were subject to sexual humiliation by women soldiers, while others allege that they were held for days in cells as small as one metre square.
Michael Fordham QC, for the former inmates, said the question needed to be asked: “Is this Britain’s Abu Ghraib?”
I can’t even think up a response to the video or information shared in that article.
Okay, so I’m going to end with another ‘no surprises here’ post. Ozzy Osbourne is actually a mutant. No really.
A study of the hard-partying rocker revealed he actually has several genetic mutations that may explain how he’s lived so long, scientists say.
Some of them “we’ve never seen before,” said geneticist Nathaniel Pearson, who was part of the team that sequenced Osbourne’s DNA for Massachusetts lab Knome Inc.
“I’ve always said that at the end of the world there will be roaches, Ozzy and Keith Richards,” the Prince of Darkness’ wife Sharon Osbourne said.
“He’s going to outlive us all. That fascinated me – how can his body endure so much.”
The 61-year-old “Black Sabbath” singer is as famous for his colossal intake as he is for his voice. He once said he did LSD every day for two years and he drank booze like water.
No surprisingly, many of the anomalies scientists discovered had to do with how he processes drugs and alcohol.
Ozzy was just here in town for voodoo fest. I imagine he left DNA samples all over the place if the scientists still are looking for more. Since it’s still the morning, I’ll treat you to some mellow Ozzy.
So, that’s my contribution today.
peej
Carissa
bostonboomer
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mablue2
peggysue22
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skydancingguestblogger
Mona (aka Wonk the Vote)
Sky Dancing 
Nice roundup Dak. For all the ink that the pundits are expending to tell us why the democrats lost, a quick trip to PUMA archives, or the pro Hillary blogs in general, will devulge post after post after post of the many reasons why Obumbles will continue to stumble for the next two years. The question is will the country be so blind again as to gift him the nomination? Anywho, the ‘rehabilitation’ of Obumbles begins….
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101106/ap_on_re_us/obama_asia
Note in the article how the Indian press jumped on him at his first (of many) missteps….
Hillary 2012
Heh! You know, when I read this
“voters who supported Hillary Clinton’s 2008 presidential run deserted her party in droves …”
I thought, Yes that started May 31, 2008! But you didn’t care to report about it back then, did you!
(If I may?) … Asshats!
I thought the same thing, this desertion began in 2008. But back then the Donna Brazile attitude was prevalent among Obamadems – we don’t need you, in fact we’re the cool group and we don’t even want you.
Also I bet a lot of African Americans who voted for Obama in ’08 didn’t come out to vote for Dems in 2010; they voted for Obama because he’s black but they didn’t become reliable voters for the Democratic Party because Obama never did anything to make that happen.
As for women and gays, I don’t know what’s going on!
I thought the party left us. They told us they could win elections without us and they’ve spent the last two years ignoring issues that would help the people that need the help.
Yawn, this is yet another era (like the Bush era) that I can’t wait to leave behind….what’s next? Can the next era possibly be worse?
President Huckabee?
“West Wing staffers [have] created a cult of personality around Obama …”
… and may I add “… with the help of the media.”
“Obama, this person said, frequently invokes the 2008 experience and what he believes was its lesson — always stay the course.”
As I’ve studied Obama more closely lately I’m inclined to think that, while he may be easily ‘programmed’ it will take “a heck of a job” to ‘de-program’ him.
Polls tend to concentrate on specific subjects, this one was on Hillary voters. I would have like them to extend the poll to the performance of Obama and the Senate. No one stood up to the Republican filibusters. I know a congressman who complained privately, Democrats would give concessions to the Republicans and they still would not vote. People in local fundraisers asked, why don’t the Democrats force the Republicans to actually filibuster for a couple of days.
In general I would add the following comment: Blue Collar workers get up everyday to got to their jobs and get the job done. They are very quick to spot non perfomrance. Pelosi and the House did their job. Harry Reid and Obama fell short on performance. Debbie Stabanow is up for re election next term here in Michigan. She is another one of those that wring their hands, and gets nothing done. We shall see how well she does. Michigan went solid Republican in the State. She might not do so well.
In short the Democrats did not get the job done and deserved the reaction they got. The early signs were in Mass when Kennedy’s seat went Republicn
If he got rid of people like Bernanke and Geithner, and replaced them smartly, that could happen. One thing Obama has no trouble with is betrayal, he’ll throw anybody under the bus.
But I’m not sure he’s secure enough to shake up his administration that way.
Many of them have left any way. Geithner’s job seems secure to me.
Dems on Facebook are going nuts about Olbermann’s suspension.
If he plays his cards right, this could be the best thing to happen to him since 2008.
The conclusions surrounding this historic defeat are numerous:
1. Failing to withdraw troops from a “war” that is unwinnable. Check.
2. Failing to protect the FOCA by allowing the Stupak Amendment to see the light of day. Check.
3. Failing to do away with DADT. Check.
4. Failing to include the public option. Check.
5. Failing to hold the previous criminal administration from accountability. Check.
6. Failing to hold Wall Street minions accountable. Check.
7. Failing to address the monopoly hold on this nation. Check.
8. Failing to tackle the problem of the insurance and pharma industries. Check.
9. Failing to make the lack of jobs a first priority. Check.
10. Failing to understand that “bipartisanship” is never going to happen. Check.
11. Failing to notice that the broken pledges strewn all over the landscape was going to lead to this November 2nd debacle. Check.
12. Failing to “fight” for those facing cut offs on unemployment. Check.
It is impossible to pile up the “failures” without understanding that the public was in serious need of actual leadership and this man failed miserably. For those who stayed home, or who voted against their own interests, it was a compilation of “fails” that led to this trainwreck and cannot be laid at the feet of just one or two reasons.
His signal of continuing to aim at “compromise” is just another sign of retreat.
This NYT Opioniator piece by Timothy Egan shows how one can spin facts to a silly conclusion. Classic.
Spot-on.
Comes down to it’s the economy stupid but that simple line is the sum total of a long list of issues.
Obama’s in so far over his head I think there is no possible way for him to correct it now. His best chance for re-election is to return full-throttle to hoodwinking the masses.
Whoops — this was supposed to nest under Pat Johnson’s list.
They will always find a way to blame the Clintons and their voters. They should blame Donna B. and the dems we elected who sold us out.
If you have a stomach that gets upset esay,don’t read this story about Ozzy.
There is a story about Ozzy and one of the member’s from Motley Cru were trying to one up each other. The guy from Motley Cru snorted an ant so Ozzy snorted a line of ants. Then the guy from Motley Cru was going to pee on the ground and lick it,but before he could finish peeing,Ozzy pushed him aside and licked the ground.
Oh, he had a message. Problem was he didn’t have any action.
All words, no work.
Hmmm. Interesting now that the GOP has essentially been handed the keys to the car that some of those who thought this “message” was going to be a good thing, and perhaps a much needed “wake up” call, are beginning to wonder about this strategy.
After getting a closer look at those who will be wielding the gavel and issuing policy, there seems to be a slight hesitation about where we may just be headed.
Michele Bachmann has taken center stage with some of the looniest statements out there, and Boehner seems to be inching away a little bit from the McConnell agenda to spend the next two years doing nothing but working to defeat Obama as millions of us sit here waiting and expecting some relief.
The message that extending the Bush tax cuts may not be all that it is cracked up to be is now gaining some traction with the voters who may have thought they were voting for “smaller government” but who may now be asking if it is possible to achieve if the rich are allowed to get richer at their expense.
These are a few of the “messages” President Indifferent failed to adequately address so now the refrain is left with those who are asking “what’s next?” What’s next is just more of the same: gridlock, indifference, and political posturing that will serve none of us well.
Yup!
Ron Paul wants to abolish the Fed, and he’ll be in charge of the subcommittee that oversees…wait for it…the Fed
Ron Paul vows renewed Fed audit push next year
Great! Put a Gold Standard fetishist in charge of the monetary policy.
We’re certainly in for a wild ride.
And Michele Bachmann is busy with her own caucus of 20 or so members who promise to stop any proposed legislation they do not agree with. Meaning: anything that is not found word for word in the bible. Look for more Stupak type amendments making its way into most bills.
And how do we balance the budget? Easy. Rather than “victimize” the pirates who stole most of the money from Wall Street by raising their tax percentage from a “whopping” to 35 to 38%, we will reduce education costs, Medicare and Medicaid assistance, close off unemployment benefits, deregulate everything in sight, and wipe out any future discussion involving a stimulus which may save a portion of the economy by just maintaing jobs for teachers, firemen and the police. Expect your local taxes to soar!
Let’s not even consider campaign finance reform which would go a long way in restoring the public faith but just do away with any type of reform whatsoever. Let the private sector tamper with our food supply, the auto industry make driving more of an “adventure” without government looking over their shoulders, and let any other industry do whatever the hell it wants when it comes to safety because it just isn’t good for business!
And if more people die from being unable to afford the cost of insurance, well let it be said that it must be their own fault in not planning ahead.
This is the “message” this crowd put out there and a little of that is beginning ever so slowly to dawn on those who thought that the “change” that was needed rested within their reach.
Oh well.
Michele Bachman is one of the most openly insane people I’ve ever seen on TV.
Here’s Michele Bachman in action:
You have to applaud Geithner and Bernanke for their equanimity.
Oh, good lord — surely you cannot be serious (whoops, sorry, forgot for a moment what year I’m in).
But really … the gold standard???? Didn’t Roosevelt (reluctantly) abandon the gold standard in exchange for continuing economic recovery and ongoing prosperity?
Having a gold standard has crashed many an empire including Spain. Nixon removed us completely from dollar convertibility to Gold. The Jamaica agreement in 1976 fully demonetized gold. The Bretton Woods Agreement pegged every one to the dollar except the US dollar which was fixed to an amount of gold. It happened in 1944 and JM Keynes was one of the big heads there. You can find more about it at Wiki.
Thanks for the summary. I vaguely recall that Nixon had a role in finishing off the gold standard, but I’m more familiar with the Roosevelt/gold standard dilemma.
Did y’all see this one:
Would we be better off under a President Hillary Clinton?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/05/AR2010110505214.html
The irony of this is that Milbank was also banned from MSNBC during the elections because he refused to hop onto the Obama bandwagon in full gusto. It was reported that this ban was a directive from Keith Olbermann who is finding himself in the same situation.
What goes around, comes around.
I still think Milbank is a sexist pig….
MSNBC seems to be full of ‘progressive’ men that have disturbingly horrible attitudes towards women.
I think there are lots of reasons Hillary would have been a better President, but maybe none more important than one of the reasons Obots said Obama would be better: personality. Obama has been given a pass for every failure and inadequacy; Hillary’s feet would have been held to the fire.
Thanks for that link. It gave me a chance to vent in the comments.
He had me right up to the WWTSBQ meme.
Just killing time waiting for company to arrive and I just though of something that cracked me up.
Remember 2008 when the paeons were bleeting all over the place about Obama with songs, plays, poems, essays, magazine covers, editorials, etc., all proclaiming the “wonder” of “The One”? When will.i.am and a host of others got together for the sole purpose of a video that was played in endless loops for months on end?
I wonder if they dare march out the old “Yes, we can!” trope while watching this guy reach out with more signs of compromise and a willingness to put us all at risk as he plays “kissy face” with the opposition?
I can still see those poor school children marching in place with chants of Obama suggesting Mighty Mouse to the rescue when it looks like now he is about to agree to cut education funds as a means of cutting the budget.
You can almost hear the sounds of disillusionment overriding the chant that once was.
What’s happening to inner city education is an abomination. It’s like no child left behind on steroids. One of the premier charter schools’ principal just got caught cherry picking applications. You knew that was going to happen on their bonus plan scheme. Why bring in troubled students when test scores means your job and your only dimension of increased pay? It’s an invitation to cheat; just like they do in all merit-based businesses that I’ve ever seen.
I’m noodling out a theory about mass public insanity and how it applies to big organizations like governments and corporations. I’ve not gotten very far on it, but this comment made me remember that weird hysteria.
As for the government hysteria, I’m talking about things like the Foot and Mouth Outbreak in England which saw the government running around, without much scientific study or background, killing every cloven hoofed animal in sight. To the point of wiping out endangered breeds of sheep and so on. Hundreds of thousands of animals destroyed, full killing fields of them for.. not much really. Farmers who resisted and managed to be small enough to hold back the government until the thing washed over never had any problems. There’s more, but that’s for the post about the theory.
It’s like a meme, in the anthropology/sociology sense of the word takes hold and the public, government workers whatever, can’t drop it. No matter what kind of sense is spoken by the opposition. Obama as ‘The One’ is one of them. Killing the cattle industry to save it from Foot and Mouth is another.
Don’t know if any one else saw this, but it’s sure worth a listen.
Very nice.